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Institutional ownership and bond pricing: Evidence from China 机构持股与债券定价：来自中国的证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101396

Yulin Wang , Xueying Zhang , Thomas Walker , Gerrit Liedtke

This paper examines the impact of institutional ownership on the bond yield spreads of publicly traded Chinese firms. Our research results show the presence of a U-shaped, non-linear relationship between the shareholdings of institutional investors and bond yield spreads. Heterogeneity tests reveal differences in the impact of institutional ownership on yield spreads among different types of institutional investors and for firms in which members of the central government stabilization fund, commonly referred to as “national team” institutions, hold shares. Further tests indicate that corporate governance levels and firm performance serve as channels through which institutional shareholders affect bond yield spreads.

本文考察了机构持股对中国上市公司债券收益率息差的影响。我们的研究结果表明，机构投资者持股与债券收益率息差之间存在u型非线性关系。异质性检验显示，不同类型的机构投资者和中央政府稳定基金成员（通常被称为“国家队”机构）持股的公司之间，机构所有权对收益率息差的影响存在差异。进一步的检验表明，公司治理水平和公司绩效是机构股东影响债券收益率息差的渠道。

引用次数: 0

Central bank green communication and pollution premium: Evidence from China 央行绿色沟通与污染溢价：来自中国的证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101394

Yiyao Chen , Fuwei Jiang , Huajing Zhang

We explore the role of central bank communication on green finance policy in shaping pollution premium in the Chinese stock market. To measure the focus of central bank on green development, we construct a green communication index using monetary policy implementation reports based on text analysis. We find that central bank green communication increases expected returns for highly-polluting firms. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that central bank green communication increases polluting firms' risk exposure, tightens commercial banks' lending restrictions, and shifts investors' green preferences. Heterogeneous analysis shows that the effect is more pronounced for high-profit and low-ESG stocks. Overall, our findings indicate a positive role of central banks in enhancing the extent to which financial markets price pollution risk through central bank green communication.

我们探讨了央行绿色金融政策沟通在中国股市污染溢价形成中的作用。为了衡量央行对绿色发展的重视程度，本文基于文本分析，利用货币政策执行报告构建了绿色沟通指数。我们发现，央行绿色沟通提高了高污染企业的预期回报。经过一系列稳健性检验，这一结论仍然有效。机制分析表明，央行绿色沟通增加了污染企业的风险暴露，收紧了商业银行的贷款限制，并改变了投资者的绿色偏好。异质性分析表明，高利润和低esg股票的影响更为明显。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，央行在通过央行绿色沟通提高金融市场对污染风险定价的程度方面发挥了积极作用。

引用次数: 0

Judicial Independence and corporate labor investment: Evidence from China 司法独立与企业劳动力投资：来自中国的证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101404

Nanyan Dong, Jiang Zhang, Xiangbing Xu, Peiyu Ou

Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we find that the establishment of circuit tribunals significantly increases corporate labor investment by improving the financing environment and promoting innovation. The effect is more pronounced in provinces with lower levels of marketization and weaker legal institutions, as well as in labor-intensive industries, state-owned enterprises, and financially constrained non-state enterprises. Additionally, circuit tribunals also enhance firm valuation, with no evidence of adverse effects on labor share or labor investment efficiency. Our study highlights the institutional role of judicial independence in supporting corporate hiring, contributing to the literature on judicial reform and labor investment in emerging markets.

采用交错差中差方法，我们发现巡回法庭的设立通过改善融资环境和促进创新显著增加了企业的劳动力投入。这种影响在市场化程度较低、法律制度较弱的省份、劳动密集型产业、国有企业和资金受限的非国有企业中更为明显。此外，巡回法庭也提高了公司估值，没有证据表明对劳动份额或劳动投资效率有不利影响。我们的研究强调了司法独立在支持企业招聘方面的制度作用，为新兴市场司法改革和劳动力投资的文献做出了贡献。

引用次数: 0

Chairperson's intra-country migrant marriage and corporate R&D investment: Evidence from Chinese family firms 董事长跨国婚姻与企业研发投资：来自中国家族企业的证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101413

Yuan Chen , Xiaogang He

Marriage can profoundly shape a chairperson's risk preferences and managerial capabilities. Drawing on social network theory and the theory of diversity cascades across organizational hierarchies, we investigate the impact of intra-country migrant marriage on family firms' research and development (R&D) investment. Analyzing panel data from Chinese family firms spanning 2008 to 2020 reveals that intra-country migrant marriage significantly increases R&D investment. However, this effect weakens under high market and policy uncertainties. Mechanism analysis supports both a direct effect through expanded social networks and an indirect effect via top management team diversity. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the effect weakens only when the chairperson's blood relatives are involved in the firm's management or in regions with well-developed labor markets, whereas it is more pronounced in regions characterized by advanced technology markets.

婚姻可以深刻地塑造董事长的风险偏好和管理能力。利用社会网络理论和跨组织层级的多样性级联理论，我们研究了国内移民婚姻对家族企业研发投资的影响。对2008年至2020年中国家族企业面板数据的分析表明，国内移民婚姻显著增加了研发投资。然而，在市场和政策高度不确定性的情况下，这种效应减弱。机制分析既支持通过扩大社会网络产生的直接效应，也支持通过高层管理团队多样性产生的间接效应。异质性分析进一步表明，只有当董事长的直系亲属参与公司管理或在劳动力市场发达的地区，这种效应才会减弱，而在技术市场发达的地区，这种效应更为明显。

引用次数: 0

Intricacies of financial liberalization, business models, and financial development on Bank stability in Africa 错综复杂的金融自由化、商业模式和金融发展对非洲银行稳定性的影响

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101344

Mohammed Adem

This study examines the nonlinear impact of financial regulation on stability by considering financial development and business models. Using African countries' data (2002–2019) and two-stage instrumental variable (2SIV) estimation, I find that excessive regulation beyond a certain threshold harms stability. Increasing non-interest income business models can improve the effectiveness of financial regulations and development by strengthening stability. Powerful supervision, restrictions, and entry barriers contribute to instability. Non-interest income business models can reduce the negative impact of supervision and market discipline. The past values of financial regulation, non-interest income business models, and development contain information that helps predict stability.

本文通过考虑金融发展和商业模式，考察了金融监管对稳定性的非线性影响。使用非洲国家的数据（2002-2019）和两阶段工具变量（2SIV）估计，我发现超过一定阈值的过度监管会损害稳定性。增加非利息收入业务模式可以通过加强稳定性来提高金融监管和发展的有效性。强有力的监督、限制和进入壁垒造成了不稳定。非利息收入业务模式可以减少监管和市场纪律的负面影响。金融监管、非利息收入业务模式和发展的过去价值包含有助于预测稳定性的信息。

引用次数: 0

Actual controllers with foreign residency rights and corporate tax avoidance: Evidence from private listed companies in China 具有境外居留权的实际控制人与企业避税：来自中国民营上市公司的证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101371

Xiaozhen Pan, Sabahati Aimaiti

This study empirically tests the effect of actual controllers with foreign residency rights on corporate tax avoidance using a sample of A-share private listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2013 to 2022. The results show that actual controllers with foreign residency rights increase corporate tax avoidance. Specifically, this occurs only under conditions of high tax collection intensity, low media attention, concurrent executive positions, and indirect shareholding. Further research shows that actual controllers with foreign residency rights increase the enterprise's information asymmetry and financing constraints.

本文以2013 - 2022年沪深两市a股民营上市公司为样本，实证检验具有境外居留权的实际控制人对企业避税的影响。结果表明，具有境外居留权的实际控制人增加了企业的避税行为。具体来说，这种情况只发生在税收征收强度高、媒体关注度低、高管职位同时存在以及间接持股的情况下。进一步研究表明，具有外国居留权的实际控制人增加了企业的信息不对称和融资约束。

引用次数: 0

China's high savings: Drivers, prospects, and policy implications 中国的高储蓄：驱动因素、前景和政策影响

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101355

Longmei Zhang , Ray Brooks , Ding Ding , Haiyan Ding , Hui He , Jing Lu , Rui C. Mano

China's national savings rate—one of the highest in the world—is at the heart of its internal/external imbalances. High savings finance elevated investment when held domestically, or led to large global imbalances when they flowed abroad. We find that high savings emanate mostly from the household sector, resulting from demographic changes induced by the one-child policy and the transformation of the social safety net and job security that occurred during the transition from centrally planned to market economy. Housing reform and rising income inequality also contributed to higher savings. Moving forward, demographic changes will put downward pressure on savings. Policy efforts in strengthening the social safety net and reducing income inequality are also needed to reduce savings further and boost consumption.

中国的国民储蓄率是世界上最高的国家之一，是其内外失衡的核心。高储蓄融资在国内持有时会增加投资，而在流向海外时则会导致严重的全球失衡。我们发现，高储蓄主要来自家庭部门，这是由独生子女政策以及从中央计划经济向市场经济过渡期间发生的社会安全网和就业保障的转变引起的人口变化造成的。住房改革和收入不平等加剧也导致储蓄增加。展望未来，人口结构的变化将给储蓄带来下行压力。为了进一步减少储蓄和刺激消费，还需要在加强社会安全网和减少收入不平等方面做出政策努力。

引用次数: 0

Interconnectedness and systemic risk in financial networks: Fresh evidence from India 金融网络中的互联性和系统性风险：来自印度的新证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101373

Harshit Kumar Sharma , Wasim Ahmad

Under a dynamic multivariate set-up with time-varying probabilities, we show that the Indian financial network exhibits a high degree of interconnectedness during crisis periods with banks as emitters and NBFCs as receivers of shocks. The structure of systemic risk is endogenous in nature due to the regulations and operational coverage. The dynamic interplay between systemic risk and network connectedness suggests that a sudden rise in systemic risk results in a significant increase in total connectedness, while a connectedness shock has a significant and short-term effect on systemic risk. At the institutional level, a shock to an institution's systemic risk contribution has a long-term impact on its net connectedness, while an unexpected rise in an institution's net connectedness has a persistent and decaying effect on its systemic risk contribution. The learnings are extremely helpful for regulators and banking sector investors.

在具有时变概率的动态多元设置下，我们表明印度金融网络在危机期间表现出高度的互联性，银行作为冲击的排放者，nbfc作为冲击的接受者。由于监管和业务覆盖的关系，系统性风险的结构本质上是内生的。系统风险与网络连通性之间的动态相互作用表明，系统风险的突然上升导致总连通性显著增加，而连通性冲击对系统风险具有显著的短期影响。在制度层面，对机构系统性风险贡献的冲击对其净连通性有长期影响，而机构净连通性的意外上升对其系统性风险贡献有持续和衰减的影响。这些经验教训对监管机构和银行业投资者非常有帮助。

引用次数: 0

Are higher interest rates a concern for financial stability in MENA? 高利率是否会影响中东和北非地区的金融稳定？

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101338

Adrian Alter, Bashar Hlayhel, Thomas Kroen, Thomas Piontek

This paper assesses the state and resilience of corporate and banking sectors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment using granular micro data to conduct the first cross-country corporate and banking sector stress tests for the MENA region. The results suggest that corporate sector debt at risk may increase sizably from 13.5 in 2023 to nearly 33 % of total corporate debt by the end of 2025. Banking systems would be broadly resilient in an adverse scenario featuring higher interest rates, corporate sector stress, and rising liquidity pressures with Tier-1 capital ratios declining by 3.4 percentage points in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and 4.5 % age points in non-GCC MENA countries. In the cross-section of banks, there are pockets of vulnerabilities as banks with higher ex-ante vulnerabilities and state-owned banks suffer greater losses. While manageable, the capital losses in the adverse scenario could limit lending and adversely impact growth.

本文利用细粒度微观数据对中东和北非地区首次跨国企业和银行业压力测试进行了评估，评估了中东和北非地区企业和银行业在“长期较高”利率环境下的状况和弹性。结果表明，到2025年底，处于风险中的企业部门债务可能会从2023年的13.5%大幅增加到企业债务总额的近33%。在利率上升、企业部门压力和流动性压力上升等不利情况下，银行体系总体上具有弹性，海湾合作委员会（GCC）国家的一级资本比率下降3.4个百分点，非海湾合作委员会的中东和北非国家下降4.5个百分点。在银行的横截面中，存在脆弱性的口袋，因为事前脆弱性较高的银行和国有银行遭受的损失更大。尽管可以控制，但不利情况下的资本损失可能会限制贷款，并对经济增长产生不利影响。

引用次数: 0

Dynamic volatility spillovers among commodities, bitcoin, and emerging markets 大宗商品、比特币和新兴市场之间的动态波动溢出效应

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101375

Jesús Molina-Muñoz , Andrés Mora-Valencia , Javier Perote

In this study, the dynamic volatility spillovers among emerging markets, Bitcoin, and commodities are analyzed using Diebold and Yilmaz's spillover framework. As a by-product, a total volatility spillover index among an emerging markets index, Bitcoin, gold, and oil prices is forecast using traditional methods, machine learning, and deep learning, providing a method for anticipating turbulent periods. The results support the importance of volatility in oil prices, uncertainty about U.S. economic policy, and the stability of the sovereign bonds market for the dynamics of volatility spillovers, validating the ability of machine and deep learning approaches to predict those spillovers.

本研究采用Diebold和Yilmaz的溢出框架，分析了新兴市场、比特币和大宗商品之间的动态波动溢出效应。作为副产品，利用传统方法、机器学习和深度学习预测新兴市场指数、比特币、黄金和石油价格之间的总波动溢出指数，为预测动荡时期提供了一种方法。研究结果支持了油价波动、美国经济政策的不确定性以及主权债券市场的稳定性对波动溢出效应的重要性，验证了机器和深度学习方法预测这些溢出效应的能力。

引用次数: 0

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