Emerging Markets Review最新文献

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Central bank green communication and pollution premium: Evidence from China 央行绿色沟通与污染溢价：来自中国的证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101394

Yiyao Chen , Fuwei Jiang , Huajing Zhang

We explore the role of central bank communication on green finance policy in shaping pollution premium in the Chinese stock market. To measure the focus of central bank on green development, we construct a green communication index using monetary policy implementation reports based on text analysis. We find that central bank green communication increases expected returns for highly-polluting firms. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that central bank green communication increases polluting firms' risk exposure, tightens commercial banks' lending restrictions, and shifts investors' green preferences. Heterogeneous analysis shows that the effect is more pronounced for high-profit and low-ESG stocks. Overall, our findings indicate a positive role of central banks in enhancing the extent to which financial markets price pollution risk through central bank green communication.

我们探讨了央行绿色金融政策沟通在中国股市污染溢价形成中的作用。为了衡量央行对绿色发展的重视程度，本文基于文本分析，利用货币政策执行报告构建了绿色沟通指数。我们发现，央行绿色沟通提高了高污染企业的预期回报。经过一系列稳健性检验，这一结论仍然有效。机制分析表明，央行绿色沟通增加了污染企业的风险暴露，收紧了商业银行的贷款限制，并改变了投资者的绿色偏好。异质性分析表明，高利润和低esg股票的影响更为明显。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，央行在通过央行绿色沟通提高金融市场对污染风险定价的程度方面发挥了积极作用。

引用次数: 0

Bridging the gender credit gap in low-income countries: The impact of digital financial inclusion 弥合低收入国家的性别信贷差距：数字普惠金融的影响

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101389

Wycliffe Oluoch, Abdul Latif Alhassan

Drawing on multiple waves of Kenya's FinAccess surveys, this study reveals a growing gender gap in demand for and access to credit from digital channels in Kenya. Women are less likely to apply for digital loans, and those who apply face disproportionately lower approval rates. In contrast, there is no significant gender gap in either demand or access to traditional bank loans. These findings are robust across various contexts (rural vs. urban households, rich vs. poor counties). We conclude that digital finance does not bridge the gender credit gap in Kenya; instead, it is widening it. The barriers may include algorithmic credit screening models that inadvertently perpetuate societal bias against women. Consequently, emphasis should be placed on inclusive policies that enhance access to digital devices and mandate audits of lending algorithms to identify and address embedded gender biases.

根据肯尼亚FinAccess的多轮调查，本研究揭示了肯尼亚在数字渠道对信贷的需求和获取方面的性别差距越来越大。女性申请数字贷款的可能性较小，而申请数字贷款的女性的批准率也低得不成比例。相比之下，在需求或获得传统银行贷款的机会方面没有明显的性别差距。这些发现在不同的背景下（农村与城市家庭、富国与穷国）都是强有力的。我们得出的结论是，数字金融并没有弥合肯尼亚的性别信贷差距；相反，它正在扩大差距。这些障碍可能包括算法信用筛选模型，这些模型无意中延续了对女性的社会偏见。因此，应将重点放在包容性政策上，加强对数字设备的获取，并要求对贷款算法进行审计，以识别和解决根深蒂固的性别偏见。

引用次数: 0

Fiscal rules and sovereign default 财政规则和主权违约

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101380

Laura Alfaro , Fabio Kanczuk

Debt sustainability concerns in emerging markets (EMEs) highlight the critical need for effective fiscal rules, particularly in an era of financial fragmentation. This paper examines fiscal rules using a sovereign debt model incorporating present-biased government behavior, a key driver of excessive debt in EMEs. Welfare analysis underscores the effectiveness of simple debt ceilings in mitigating default risks and enhancing financial stability.

新兴市场对债务可持续性的担忧凸显了制定有效财政规则的迫切需要，尤其是在金融碎片化时代。本文使用主权债务模型考察了财政规则，该模型包含了当前偏向的政府行为，这是新兴市场国家过度债务的关键驱动因素。福利分析强调了简单的债务上限在减轻违约风险和加强金融稳定方面的有效性。

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A brief note from the sponsoring editors 赞助编辑的简短说明

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101381

Rose Liao

引用次数: 0

Management equity incentives and bond credit spread: Evidence from China 管理层股权激励与债券信用利差：来自中国的证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101376

Duowen Wu , Xueying Zhang , Ge Zhang , Liangliang Han

This study examines the relationship between management equity incentives and bond spreads using data from China's A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2023. While equity incentive plans can mitigate agency problems and promote effective investment decisions, they may also encourage risk-taking behaviors such as risk transfer, asset substitution, and shareholder-management collusion. These actions could intensify the infringement on bondholder interests, leading to higher bond credit spreads. Despite these conflicting effects, the study finds a strong positive correlation between management equity incentives and bond spreads in the Chinese market. The impact of equity incentives on bond credit spreads is particularly notable in firms with higher management salaries and concentrated shareholder ownership. Improving information transparency reduce the influence of equity incentives on bond credit spreads.

本文利用2010 - 2023年中国a股上市公司的数据，考察了管理层股权激励与债券利差之间的关系。股权激励计划在缓解代理问题、促进有效投资决策的同时，也可能鼓励风险转移、资产替代、股东-管理层合谋等冒险行为。这些行为可能加剧对债券持有人利益的侵害，导致债券信用利差上升。尽管存在这些相互矛盾的影响，但研究发现，在中国市场上，管理层股权激励与债券利差之间存在很强的正相关关系。股权激励对债券信用利差的影响在管理层薪酬较高、股东所有权集中的公司尤为显著。提高信息透明度可以降低股权激励对债券信用利差的影响。

引用次数: 0

Growing pains: Vietnamese firms' operational efficiency and transition under the CPTPP 成长的烦恼：CPTPP下越南企业的经营效率与转型

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101379

David K. Ding , Jiali Fang , Phuc V. Nguyen , Udomsak Wongchoti

Free Trade Agreements (FTA) offer both opportunities and challenges for local businesses by expanding global markets and increasing competition. This study examines how Vietnamese firms adapted to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in 2018. Initially, businesses experienced a drop in efficiency due to increased investments and trade credit, but quickly recovered, showing overall improvement in their market exploitation and growth. The most significant improvements were seen in large, profitable, liquid firms listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange that remained resilient during the COVID-19 pandemic. These results highlight the capability of Vietnamese firms to thrive in global commerce.

自由贸易协定通过扩大全球市场和加剧竞争，为本地企业带来了机遇和挑战。本研究考察了2018年越南企业如何适应《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）。起初，由于投资和贸易信贷的增加，企业的效率有所下降，但很快就恢复了，市场开发和增长总体上有所改善。在胡志明证券交易所（Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange）上市的盈利、流动性强的大型公司改善最为显著，这些公司在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间保持了弹性。这些结果凸显了越南企业在全球商业中蓬勃发展的能力。

引用次数: 0

Decentralized finance (literacy) today and in 2034: Initial insights from Singapore and beyond 今天和2034年的去中心化金融（识字）：来自新加坡及其他地区的初步见解

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101378

Daniel Liebau

How will Decentralized Finance transform financial services? Using New Institutional Economics and Dynamic Capabilities Theory, I analyse survey data from 109 experts using non-parametric methods. Experts span traditional finance, DeFi industry, and academia. Four insights emerge: adoption expectations rise from negligible to 43% expecting at least high adoption by 2034; experts expect convergence scenarios over disruption, with traditional finance embracing DeFi most likely; back-office transforms before customer-facing functions; strategic competencies eclipse DeFi-sector specific- and technical skills. Financial institutions should prioritize DeFi Literacy. DeFi represents emerging market entry requiring organizational transformation, not just technological implementation. Recent SEC developments are broadly consistent with expert expectations.

去中心化金融将如何改变金融服务？运用新制度经济学和动态能力理论，采用非参数方法对109位专家的调查数据进行分析。专家来自传统金融、DeFi行业和学术界。由此产生了以下四点见解：到2034年，对人工智能的采用率期望从微不足道上升到43%，预计采用率至少会很高；专家预计，融合将取代颠覆，传统金融最有可能拥抱DeFi；面向客户功能前的后台转换；战略能力超越了金融行业的具体技能和技术技能。金融机构应优先考虑DeFi素养。DeFi代表新兴市场进入需要组织转型，而不仅仅是技术实施。美国证交会最近的进展大体上符合专家的预期。

引用次数: 0

Dynamic volatility spillovers among commodities, bitcoin, and emerging markets 大宗商品、比特币和新兴市场之间的动态波动溢出效应

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101375

Jesús Molina-Muñoz , Andrés Mora-Valencia , Javier Perote

In this study, the dynamic volatility spillovers among emerging markets, Bitcoin, and commodities are analyzed using Diebold and Yilmaz's spillover framework. As a by-product, a total volatility spillover index among an emerging markets index, Bitcoin, gold, and oil prices is forecast using traditional methods, machine learning, and deep learning, providing a method for anticipating turbulent periods. The results support the importance of volatility in oil prices, uncertainty about U.S. economic policy, and the stability of the sovereign bonds market for the dynamics of volatility spillovers, validating the ability of machine and deep learning approaches to predict those spillovers.

本研究采用Diebold和Yilmaz的溢出框架，分析了新兴市场、比特币和大宗商品之间的动态波动溢出效应。作为副产品，利用传统方法、机器学习和深度学习预测新兴市场指数、比特币、黄金和石油价格之间的总波动溢出指数，为预测动荡时期提供了一种方法。研究结果支持了油价波动、美国经济政策的不确定性以及主权债券市场的稳定性对波动溢出效应的重要性，验证了机器和深度学习方法预测这些溢出效应的能力。

引用次数: 0

Impact of energy restructuring on green technology innovation in the context of climate policy uncertainty 气候政策不确定性背景下能源结构调整对绿色技术创新的影响

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101377

Shikuan Zhao , Sabri Boubaker , Ahmed Imran Hunjra , Ping Yang

We examine the impact of energy restructuring on green innovation by using a panel dataset from 30 provinces spanning from 2011 to 2021. We find that energy restructuring significantly enhances urban green technological innovation, particularly in provinces with high industrialization, concentrated manufacturing, and strict environmental regulations. This study provides a novel perspective by examining the dynamic relationship between energy restructuring and green innovation, with a focus on the mediating roles of labor productivity and digital infrastructure. It also uncovers significant spatial spillover effects, demonstrating that energy restructuring not only benefits the targeted regions but also positively impacts neighboring areas.

本文利用2011 - 2021年中国30个省份的面板数据，研究了能源结构调整对绿色创新的影响。研究发现，能源结构调整显著促进了城市绿色技术创新，特别是在工业化程度高、制造业集中、环保法规严格的省份。本研究通过考察能源结构调整与绿色创新之间的动态关系提供了一个新的视角，重点研究了劳动生产率和数字基础设施的中介作用。研究还发现，能源结构调整不仅有利于目标区域，也会对周边地区产生积极影响。

引用次数: 0

Dynamics and predictability in informal currency markets: The case of the Cuban Peso 非正式货币市场的动态和可预测性：以古巴比索为例

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101374

Alejandro García-Figal , Milton García-Borroto , Carlos Lage-Codorniu , Roberto Mulet , Alejandro Lage-Castellanos

We investigate the short-term dynamics and predictability of the Cuban informal currency market, a critical case study for understanding emerging foreign exchange markets in countries with informal financial systems. Using social media messages of sell/buy intentions as a proxy for real market activity, we define a reference price for this informal market based on the Walrasian auction to capture market price trends. We explore how market fluctuations correlate with public announcements and news events, with a particular focus on understanding why overshooting events occur and how they can be anticipated. While the inherent inefficiency of these markets implies some level of predictability, standard methods fall short in capturing trend changes during overshooting episodes. To address this, we employ advanced Artificial Neural Networks (GRU-type), fine-tuned through bootstrapping, to generate accurate short-term forecasts. Our findings highlight that inefficiencies in informal markets create exploitable patterns, and that a neural network — carefully calibrated and optimized — is essential for anticipating overshooting events. This study contributes empirical evidence to the understanding of informal market dynamics and underscores the importance of developing predictive tools tailored to emerging foreign exchange markets.

我们调查了古巴非正式货币市场的短期动态和可预测性，这是了解具有非正式金融体系的国家新兴外汇市场的关键案例研究。利用社交媒体上的卖/买意向信息作为真实市场活动的代理，我们根据瓦尔拉斯拍卖为这个非正式市场定义了一个参考价格，以捕捉市场价格趋势。我们将探讨市场波动如何与公告和新闻事件相关联，特别侧重于理解为什么会发生超调事件以及如何预测它们。虽然这些市场固有的低效率意味着某种程度的可预测性，但标准方法在捕捉超调时期的趋势变化方面存在不足。为了解决这个问题，我们采用先进的人工神经网络（gru型），通过自引导进行微调，以生成准确的短期预测。我们的研究结果强调，非正规市场的低效率创造了可利用的模式，而经过仔细校准和优化的神经网络对于预测超调事件至关重要。本研究为理解非正式市场动态提供了经验证据，并强调了开发适合新兴外汇市场的预测工具的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

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