Pub Date : 2025-09-30DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101375
Jesús Molina-Muñoz , Andrés Mora-Valencia , Javier Perote
In this study, the dynamic volatility spillovers among emerging markets, Bitcoin, and commodities are analyzed using Diebold and Yilmaz's spillover framework. As a by-product, a total volatility spillover index among an emerging markets index, Bitcoin, gold, and oil prices is forecast using traditional methods, machine learning, and deep learning, providing a method for anticipating turbulent periods. The results support the importance of volatility in oil prices, uncertainty about U.S. economic policy, and the stability of the sovereign bonds market for the dynamics of volatility spillovers, validating the ability of machine and deep learning approaches to predict those spillovers.
{"title":"Dynamic volatility spillovers among commodities, bitcoin, and emerging markets","authors":"Jesús Molina-Muñoz , Andrés Mora-Valencia , Javier Perote","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101375","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101375","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, the dynamic volatility spillovers among emerging markets, Bitcoin, and commodities are analyzed using Diebold and Yilmaz's spillover framework. As a by-product, a total volatility spillover index among an emerging markets index, Bitcoin, gold, and oil prices is forecast using traditional methods, machine learning, and deep learning, providing a method for anticipating turbulent periods. The results support the importance of volatility in oil prices, uncertainty about U.S. economic policy, and the stability of the sovereign bonds market for the dynamics of volatility spillovers, validating the ability of machine and deep learning approaches to predict those spillovers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101375"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145265714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-30DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101377
Shikuan Zhao , Sabri Boubaker , Ahmed Imran Hunjra , Ping Yang
We examine the impact of energy restructuring on green innovation by using a panel dataset from 30 provinces spanning from 2011 to 2021. We find that energy restructuring significantly enhances urban green technological innovation, particularly in provinces with high industrialization, concentrated manufacturing, and strict environmental regulations. This study provides a novel perspective by examining the dynamic relationship between energy restructuring and green innovation, with a focus on the mediating roles of labor productivity and digital infrastructure. It also uncovers significant spatial spillover effects, demonstrating that energy restructuring not only benefits the targeted regions but also positively impacts neighboring areas.
{"title":"Impact of energy restructuring on green technology innovation in the context of climate policy uncertainty","authors":"Shikuan Zhao , Sabri Boubaker , Ahmed Imran Hunjra , Ping Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101377","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101377","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of energy restructuring on green innovation by using a panel dataset from 30 provinces spanning from 2011 to 2021. We find that energy restructuring significantly enhances urban green technological innovation, particularly in provinces with high industrialization, concentrated manufacturing, and strict environmental regulations. This study provides a novel perspective by examining the dynamic relationship between energy restructuring and green innovation, with a focus on the mediating roles of labor productivity and digital infrastructure. It also uncovers significant spatial spillover effects, demonstrating that energy restructuring not only benefits the targeted regions but also positively impacts neighboring areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101377"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145265711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate the short-term dynamics and predictability of the Cuban informal currency market, a critical case study for understanding emerging foreign exchange markets in countries with informal financial systems. Using social media messages of sell/buy intentions as a proxy for real market activity, we define a reference price for this informal market based on the Walrasian auction to capture market price trends. We explore how market fluctuations correlate with public announcements and news events, with a particular focus on understanding why overshooting events occur and how they can be anticipated. While the inherent inefficiency of these markets implies some level of predictability, standard methods fall short in capturing trend changes during overshooting episodes. To address this, we employ advanced Artificial Neural Networks (GRU-type), fine-tuned through bootstrapping, to generate accurate short-term forecasts. Our findings highlight that inefficiencies in informal markets create exploitable patterns, and that a neural network — carefully calibrated and optimized — is essential for anticipating overshooting events. This study contributes empirical evidence to the understanding of informal market dynamics and underscores the importance of developing predictive tools tailored to emerging foreign exchange markets.
{"title":"Dynamics and predictability in informal currency markets: The case of the Cuban Peso","authors":"Alejandro García-Figal , Milton García-Borroto , Carlos Lage-Codorniu , Roberto Mulet , Alejandro Lage-Castellanos","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101374","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101374","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the short-term dynamics and predictability of the Cuban informal currency market, a critical case study for understanding emerging foreign exchange markets in countries with informal financial systems. Using social media messages of sell/buy intentions as a proxy for real market activity, we define a reference price for this informal market based on the Walrasian auction to capture market price trends. We explore how market fluctuations correlate with public announcements and news events, with a particular focus on understanding why overshooting events occur and how they can be anticipated. While the inherent inefficiency of these markets implies some level of predictability, standard methods fall short in capturing trend changes during overshooting episodes. To address this, we employ advanced Artificial Neural Networks (GRU-type), fine-tuned through bootstrapping, to generate accurate short-term forecasts. Our findings highlight that inefficiencies in informal markets create exploitable patterns, and that a neural network — carefully calibrated and optimized — is essential for anticipating overshooting events. This study contributes empirical evidence to the understanding of informal market dynamics and underscores the importance of developing predictive tools tailored to emerging foreign exchange markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101374"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145265715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-25DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101370
Pedro Henrique Alves Pereira , Jose Angelo Divino
Compared with developed countries, emerging small open economies (ESOEs) experience greater economic fluctuations, mostly driven by commodity price shocks, balance-sheet constraints, and procyclical fiscal policies. This paper examines how monetary and sterilized foreign exchange (FX) interventions affect welfare and economic stability in the ESOEs. Sterilized FX interventions consistently improve welfare in all monetary policy arrangements. Ignoring the output gap in Taylor-type interest rate rules leads to significant welfare costs, particularly in economies with high exposure to foreign markets. The combination of Friedman rule with FX intervention neutralizes money-financed fiscal deficit and foreign shocks, improves welfare by reducing economic volatility, and highlights the importance of coordinated monetary and FX policies to stabilize ESOEs.
{"title":"Monetary policy and foreign exchange interventions in emerging small open economies","authors":"Pedro Henrique Alves Pereira , Jose Angelo Divino","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101370","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101370","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compared with developed countries, emerging small open economies (ESOEs) experience greater economic fluctuations, mostly driven by commodity price shocks, balance-sheet constraints, and procyclical fiscal policies. This paper examines how monetary and sterilized foreign exchange (FX) interventions affect welfare and economic stability in the ESOEs. Sterilized FX interventions consistently improve welfare in all monetary policy arrangements. Ignoring the output gap in Taylor-type interest rate rules leads to significant welfare costs, particularly in economies with high exposure to foreign markets. The combination of Friedman rule with FX intervention neutralizes money-financed fiscal deficit and foreign shocks, improves welfare by reducing economic volatility, and highlights the importance of coordinated monetary and FX policies to stabilize ESOEs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101370"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145157852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-23DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101373
Harshit Kumar Sharma , Wasim Ahmad
Under a dynamic multivariate set-up with time-varying probabilities, we show that the Indian financial network exhibits a high degree of interconnectedness during crisis periods with banks as emitters and NBFCs as receivers of shocks. The structure of systemic risk is endogenous in nature due to the regulations and operational coverage. The dynamic interplay between systemic risk and network connectedness suggests that a sudden rise in systemic risk results in a significant increase in total connectedness, while a connectedness shock has a significant and short-term effect on systemic risk. At the institutional level, a shock to an institution's systemic risk contribution has a long-term impact on its net connectedness, while an unexpected rise in an institution's net connectedness has a persistent and decaying effect on its systemic risk contribution. The learnings are extremely helpful for regulators and banking sector investors.
{"title":"Interconnectedness and systemic risk in financial networks: Fresh evidence from India","authors":"Harshit Kumar Sharma , Wasim Ahmad","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101373","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101373","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Under a dynamic multivariate set-up with time-varying probabilities, we show that the Indian financial network exhibits a high degree of interconnectedness during crisis periods with banks as emitters and NBFCs as receivers of shocks. The structure of systemic risk is endogenous in nature due to the regulations and operational coverage. The dynamic interplay between systemic risk and network connectedness suggests that a sudden rise in systemic risk results in a significant increase in total connectedness, while a connectedness shock has a significant and short-term effect on systemic risk. At the institutional level, a shock to an institution's systemic risk contribution has a long-term impact on its net connectedness, while an unexpected rise in an institution's net connectedness has a persistent and decaying effect on its systemic risk contribution. The learnings are extremely helpful for regulators and banking sector investors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101373"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145219988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-22DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101372
Jie Li , Wenwen Zhou , Xiaohong Li , Yu Wu
This study investigates the welfare-enhancing effects of digital personal credit scoring systems, with a particular focus on household consumption. Utilizing the latest nationally representative microdata from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) for 2021 and 2023, our empirical analysis demonstrates that Sesame Credit – Ant Group's digital credit product - exerts a statistically significant positive effect on household consumption expenditure. This stimulative effect is particularly observed in developmental and hedonic consumption. Mechanism analysis reveal that this impact operates primarily through improved credit accessibility and the relief of liquidity constraints. Furthermore, our results suggest that vulnerable households benefit more from Sesame Credit.
{"title":"Digital credit scoring and household consumption: Evidence from Sesame Credit in China","authors":"Jie Li , Wenwen Zhou , Xiaohong Li , Yu Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101372","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101372","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the welfare-enhancing effects of digital personal credit scoring systems, with a particular focus on household consumption. Utilizing the latest nationally representative microdata from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) for 2021 and 2023, our empirical analysis demonstrates that Sesame Credit – Ant Group's digital credit product - exerts a statistically significant positive effect on household consumption expenditure. This stimulative effect is particularly observed in developmental and hedonic consumption. Mechanism analysis reveal that this impact operates primarily through improved credit accessibility and the relief of liquidity constraints. Furthermore, our results suggest that vulnerable households benefit more from Sesame Credit.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101372"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145157853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-21DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101371
Xiaozhen Pan, Sabahati Aimaiti
This study empirically tests the effect of actual controllers with foreign residency rights on corporate tax avoidance using a sample of A-share private listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2013 to 2022. The results show that actual controllers with foreign residency rights increase corporate tax avoidance. Specifically, this occurs only under conditions of high tax collection intensity, low media attention, concurrent executive positions, and indirect shareholding. Further research shows that actual controllers with foreign residency rights increase the enterprise's information asymmetry and financing constraints.
{"title":"Actual controllers with foreign residency rights and corporate tax avoidance: Evidence from private listed companies in China","authors":"Xiaozhen Pan, Sabahati Aimaiti","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101371","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101371","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study empirically tests the effect of actual controllers with foreign residency rights on corporate tax avoidance using a sample of A-share private listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2013 to 2022. The results show that actual controllers with foreign residency rights increase corporate tax avoidance. Specifically, this occurs only under conditions of high tax collection intensity, low media attention, concurrent executive positions, and indirect shareholding. Further research shows that actual controllers with foreign residency rights increase the enterprise's information asymmetry and financing constraints.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101371"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145108777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-18DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101363
Boileau Loko , Nelie Nembot , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro
The paper investigates the impact of COVID-19 on private savings and economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using data for at least 13 SSA economies, we find that private saving rates have not increased during COVID-19 in SSA, a finding that contrasts with other regions in the world. Instead, COVID-19 mortality in our estimations is significantly associated with a decline in private savings and economic growth in SSA. Robustness checks and analyses of household surveys during the pandemic validate and explore some of the underlying drivers of those results. The paper further confirms real per capita economic growth as a key determinant of private savings in the region since 1983.
{"title":"Private savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"Boileau Loko , Nelie Nembot , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101363","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101363","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper investigates the impact of COVID-19 on private savings and economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using data for at least 13 SSA economies, we find that private saving rates have not increased during COVID-19 in SSA, a finding that contrasts with other regions in the world. Instead, COVID-19 mortality in our estimations is significantly associated with a decline in private savings and economic growth in SSA. Robustness checks and analyses of household surveys during the pandemic validate and explore some of the underlying drivers of those results. The paper further confirms real per capita economic growth as a key determinant of private savings in the region since 1983.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101363"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145265716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-17DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101369
Pankaj Swain , Abhishek Poddar , Arun Kumar Misra
This study employs a network model to examine the dynamics of stress in the Indian banking system. The study designs comprehensive Stress Network Structures under different phases of the economic cycle by integrating stress scores of constituent banks with a measure of return connectedness among them. Important metrics of the Stress Network Structures are combined to construct respective Stress Network Indices (SNIs). Besides identifying significant determinants of SNIs, the analysis identified major stress-emitting institutions. Our results underscore the potential of rapid stress transmission and greater destabilizing impact in a tightly interconnected Stress Network, characterized by a high average clustering coefficient and lower average path length. The paper also measures the magnitude of stress spillover, emphasizing its positive association with the degree of interconnectedness among banks during economic upturns and downturns. From a policy perspective, the study recommends a greater regulatory focus on Systemically Important Banks (SIBs) that serve as the epicenters of stress propagation.
{"title":"How stressed are the banks? An inter-temporal network analysis","authors":"Pankaj Swain , Abhishek Poddar , Arun Kumar Misra","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101369","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101369","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study employs a network model to examine the dynamics of stress in the Indian banking system. The study designs comprehensive Stress Network Structures under different phases of the economic cycle by integrating stress scores of constituent banks with a measure of return connectedness among them. Important metrics of the Stress Network Structures are combined to construct respective Stress Network Indices (SNIs). Besides identifying significant determinants of SNIs, the analysis identified major stress-emitting institutions. Our results underscore the potential of rapid stress transmission and greater destabilizing impact in a tightly interconnected Stress Network, characterized by a high average clustering coefficient and lower average path length. The paper also measures the magnitude of stress spillover, emphasizing its positive association with the degree of interconnectedness among banks during economic upturns and downturns. From a policy perspective, the study recommends a greater regulatory focus on Systemically Important Banks (SIBs) that serve as the epicenters of stress propagation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101369"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-13DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101358
Taniya Ghosh, Yadavindu Ajit
This study evaluates the impact of inflation targeting (IT) on inflation levels, volatility, and persistence in 59 emerging markets from 1985 to 2019, addressing the limitations of traditional methods that ignore staggered adoption. Using methodology that accounts for staggered implementation, IT is found to significantly reduce inflation, particularly when hyperinflationary economies are excluded. However, its effects on volatility and persistence are less conclusive. While traditional models suggest initial reductions in volatility, incorporating staggered adoption reveals no lasting impact. Similarly, IT does not significantly influence inflation persistence. The findings emphasize IT’s effectiveness in lowering inflation but limited influence on other aspects.
{"title":"Does inflation targeting live up to all the hype?","authors":"Taniya Ghosh, Yadavindu Ajit","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101358","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101358","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluates the impact of inflation targeting (IT) on inflation levels, volatility, and persistence in 59 emerging markets from 1985 to 2019, addressing the limitations of traditional methods that ignore staggered adoption. Using methodology that accounts for staggered implementation, IT is found to significantly reduce inflation, particularly when hyperinflationary economies are excluded. However, its effects on volatility and persistence are less conclusive. While traditional models suggest initial reductions in volatility, incorporating staggered adoption reveals no lasting impact. Similarly, IT does not significantly influence inflation persistence. The findings emphasize IT’s effectiveness in lowering inflation but limited influence on other aspects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101358"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145060016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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