Pub Date : 2025-11-01Epub Date: 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101378
Daniel Liebau
How will Decentralized Finance transform financial services? Using New Institutional Economics and Dynamic Capabilities Theory, I analyse survey data from 109 experts using non-parametric methods. Experts span traditional finance, DeFi industry, and academia. Four insights emerge: adoption expectations rise from negligible to 43% expecting at least high adoption by 2034; experts expect convergence scenarios over disruption, with traditional finance embracing DeFi most likely; back-office transforms before customer-facing functions; strategic competencies eclipse DeFi-sector specific- and technical skills. Financial institutions should prioritize DeFi Literacy. DeFi represents emerging market entry requiring organizational transformation, not just technological implementation. Recent SEC developments are broadly consistent with expert expectations.
{"title":"Decentralized finance (literacy) today and in 2034: Initial insights from Singapore and beyond","authors":"Daniel Liebau","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101378","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101378","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How will Decentralized Finance transform financial services? Using New Institutional Economics and Dynamic Capabilities Theory, I analyse survey data from 109 experts using non-parametric methods. Experts span traditional finance, DeFi industry, and academia. Four insights emerge: adoption expectations rise from negligible to 43% expecting at least high adoption by 2034; experts expect convergence scenarios over disruption, with traditional finance embracing DeFi most likely; back-office transforms before customer-facing functions; strategic competencies eclipse DeFi-sector specific- and technical skills. Financial institutions should prioritize DeFi Literacy. DeFi represents emerging market entry requiring organizational transformation, not just technological implementation. Recent SEC developments are broadly consistent with expert expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101378"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145265717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01Epub Date: 2025-09-08DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101365
Zhengyi Zhou
This paper investigates the effect of house price co-movement on inter-city labor migration, leveraging China's unique institutional background. We construct a shift-share instrumental variable (IV) for house price co-movement, using pairwise banking integration as a source of exogenous variation. We find that at household level, house price co-movement facilitates inter-city labor migration, particularly for migrants with a stronger incentive to hedge against housing consumption risk. At city-pair level, house price co-movement also positively affects migration flows. Hence, as housing market interventions become increasingly city-specific, policymakers should take measures to prevent the deterrence of labor mobility.
{"title":"House price co-movement and labor migration: Evidence from China","authors":"Zhengyi Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101365","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101365","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the effect of house price co-movement on inter-city labor migration, leveraging China's unique institutional background. We construct a shift-share instrumental variable (IV) for house price co-movement, using pairwise banking integration as a source of exogenous variation. We find that at household level, house price co-movement facilitates inter-city labor migration, particularly for migrants with a stronger incentive to hedge against housing consumption risk. At city-pair level, house price co-movement also positively affects migration flows. Hence, as housing market interventions become increasingly city-specific, policymakers should take measures to prevent the deterrence of labor mobility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101365"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01Epub Date: 2025-09-08DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101367
Lei Xu , Massimiliano Tani , Yu Zhu , Xin Wen
We investigate the impact of China's 2014 hukou reform – a major change allowing migrants living in small and medium-sized cities of less than 5 million people to apply for urban residence - on formal and informal borrowing at a time of rapid economic transformation. We find that the hukou policy change has predominantly increased natives' access to finance, especially through informal sources, and for investments in housing. We also find that the policy affects households differently according to education level, with more educated households borrowing more to capitalise on rising asset prices driven by the ‘additional’ urban population created by the policy.
{"title":"Formal and informal debt in China: Evidence from the 2014 hukou reform","authors":"Lei Xu , Massimiliano Tani , Yu Zhu , Xin Wen","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101367","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101367","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the impact of China's 2014 <em>hukou</em> reform – a major change allowing migrants living in small and medium-sized cities of less than 5 million people to apply for urban residence - on formal and informal borrowing at a time of rapid economic transformation. We find that the <em>hukou</em> policy change has predominantly increased natives' access to finance, especially through informal sources, and for investments in housing. We also find that the policy affects households differently according to education level, with more educated households borrowing more to capitalise on rising asset prices driven by the ‘additional’ urban population created by the policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101367"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145117697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01Epub Date: 2025-07-30DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101342
Runmei Luo, Yong Ye, Manman Li, Jingxin Li
This study examines whether and how private information transmitted by investors during interactions with managers affects corporate investment efficiency, with a particular focus on the role of managerial learning. Utilizing textual data from earnings communication conferences (ECCs) of Chinese listed companies, we find that the substantive information conveyed by investors helps mitigate firms' inefficient investment. Further analysis reveals that this mitigating effect is more pronounced when managers are highly competent or when firms place greater emphasis on investor protection, whereas it is weaker when CEOs are overconfident or when firms face more severe financing constraints. After conducting robustness checks on variable validity and sensitivity, and addressing potential endogeneity concerns, the main conclusions remain robust. Additional analyses suggest that managerial learning effects serve as the underlying mechanism through which the transmission of investors' private information influences investment efficiency, and such information transmission primarily suppresses inefficient investments by alleviating corporate underinvestment. This study underscores the informational role of investors in capital markets and provides critical insights for firms to optimize resource allocation.
{"title":"Pooling wisdom: The impact of investors' private information transmission on corporate investment efficiency","authors":"Runmei Luo, Yong Ye, Manman Li, Jingxin Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101342","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101342","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines whether and how private information transmitted by investors during interactions with managers affects corporate investment efficiency, with a particular focus on the role of managerial learning. Utilizing textual data from earnings communication conferences (ECCs) of Chinese listed companies, we find that the substantive information conveyed by investors helps mitigate firms' inefficient investment. Further analysis reveals that this mitigating effect is more pronounced when managers are highly competent or when firms place greater emphasis on investor protection, whereas it is weaker when CEOs are overconfident or when firms face more severe financing constraints. After conducting robustness checks on variable validity and sensitivity, and addressing potential endogeneity concerns, the main conclusions remain robust. Additional analyses suggest that managerial learning effects serve as the underlying mechanism through which the transmission of investors' private information influences investment efficiency, and such information transmission primarily suppresses inefficient investments by alleviating corporate underinvestment. This study underscores the informational role of investors in capital markets and provides critical insights for firms to optimize resource allocation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101342"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144781880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01Epub Date: 2025-09-30DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101377
Shikuan Zhao , Sabri Boubaker , Ahmed Imran Hunjra , Ping Yang
We examine the impact of energy restructuring on green innovation by using a panel dataset from 30 provinces spanning from 2011 to 2021. We find that energy restructuring significantly enhances urban green technological innovation, particularly in provinces with high industrialization, concentrated manufacturing, and strict environmental regulations. This study provides a novel perspective by examining the dynamic relationship between energy restructuring and green innovation, with a focus on the mediating roles of labor productivity and digital infrastructure. It also uncovers significant spatial spillover effects, demonstrating that energy restructuring not only benefits the targeted regions but also positively impacts neighboring areas.
{"title":"Impact of energy restructuring on green technology innovation in the context of climate policy uncertainty","authors":"Shikuan Zhao , Sabri Boubaker , Ahmed Imran Hunjra , Ping Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101377","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101377","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of energy restructuring on green innovation by using a panel dataset from 30 provinces spanning from 2011 to 2021. We find that energy restructuring significantly enhances urban green technological innovation, particularly in provinces with high industrialization, concentrated manufacturing, and strict environmental regulations. This study provides a novel perspective by examining the dynamic relationship between energy restructuring and green innovation, with a focus on the mediating roles of labor productivity and digital infrastructure. It also uncovers significant spatial spillover effects, demonstrating that energy restructuring not only benefits the targeted regions but also positively impacts neighboring areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101377"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145265711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01Epub Date: 2025-09-10DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101368
Panagiotis E. Dimitropoulos
The impact of the recent financial crisis on the financing opportunities and viability of firms has been extensively studied in the literature, with a focus on large, listed corporations. Loss avoidance behavior allows managers to report a more stable income stream, assisting market participants to assess firm prospects. The scope of this study is to examine the impact of loss avoidance and earnings management on the credit financing of small private partnerships within Greece, which is a country that faced a huge backlash on the viability of small businesses. The study collected a sample from 1119 small partnerships which have published abbreviated financial statements over the period 2003–2018. Empirical evidence suggests that firms with higher loss avoidance and discretionary accruals during the sovereign debt crisis period were receiving more credit from their suppliers, a fact that is positively associated with higher viability (lower distress risk). This is the first study in the literature considering loss avoidance behavior and credit financing before and during a debt crisis, within small partnership firms.
{"title":"Credit financing, accounting quality and distress under financial turmoil: Evidence from small partnerships","authors":"Panagiotis E. Dimitropoulos","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101368","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101368","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impact of the recent financial crisis on the financing opportunities and viability of firms has been extensively studied in the literature, with a focus on large, listed corporations. Loss avoidance behavior allows managers to report a more stable income stream, assisting market participants to assess firm prospects. The scope of this study is to examine the impact of loss avoidance and earnings management on the credit financing of small private partnerships within Greece, which is a country that faced a huge backlash on the viability of small businesses. The study collected a sample from 1119 small partnerships which have published abbreviated financial statements over the period 2003–2018. Empirical evidence suggests that firms with higher loss avoidance and discretionary accruals during the sovereign debt crisis period were receiving more credit from their suppliers, a fact that is positively associated with higher viability (lower distress risk). This is the first study in the literature considering loss avoidance behavior and credit financing before and during a debt crisis, within small partnership firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101368"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01Epub Date: 2025-09-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101359
Karren Lee-Hwei Khaw , Yi Wei , Shiyue Ma
This study examines the evolving risk-taking behavior of family firms and the role of ESG integration in mitigating excessive risk-taking. Traditionally viewed as risk-averse, family firms are increasingly engaging in higher risk-taking to enhance competitiveness and sustain long-term growth. We find that ESG adoption significantly reduces risk-taking in family firms by improving internal control quality, governance transparency, and reducing financial constraint, thereby strengthening overall corporate resilience. Robustness tests confirm these findings, while heterogeneity analysis reveals variations across firm life cycles, ownership structures, and industry contexts. Overall, ESG serves as a crucial governance mechanism, balancing strategic risk-taking with long-term sustainability in family firms.
{"title":"Family firms and risk taking: Does the integration of ESG practices matter?","authors":"Karren Lee-Hwei Khaw , Yi Wei , Shiyue Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101359","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101359","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the evolving risk-taking behavior of family firms and the role of ESG integration in mitigating excessive risk-taking. Traditionally viewed as risk-averse, family firms are increasingly engaging in higher risk-taking to enhance competitiveness and sustain long-term growth. We find that ESG adoption significantly reduces risk-taking in family firms by improving internal control quality, governance transparency, and reducing financial constraint, thereby strengthening overall corporate resilience. Robustness tests confirm these findings, while heterogeneity analysis reveals variations across firm life cycles, ownership structures, and industry contexts. Overall, ESG serves as a crucial governance mechanism, balancing strategic risk-taking with long-term sustainability in family firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101359"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144996905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01Epub Date: 2025-09-17DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101369
Pankaj Swain , Abhishek Poddar , Arun Kumar Misra
This study employs a network model to examine the dynamics of stress in the Indian banking system. The study designs comprehensive Stress Network Structures under different phases of the economic cycle by integrating stress scores of constituent banks with a measure of return connectedness among them. Important metrics of the Stress Network Structures are combined to construct respective Stress Network Indices (SNIs). Besides identifying significant determinants of SNIs, the analysis identified major stress-emitting institutions. Our results underscore the potential of rapid stress transmission and greater destabilizing impact in a tightly interconnected Stress Network, characterized by a high average clustering coefficient and lower average path length. The paper also measures the magnitude of stress spillover, emphasizing its positive association with the degree of interconnectedness among banks during economic upturns and downturns. From a policy perspective, the study recommends a greater regulatory focus on Systemically Important Banks (SIBs) that serve as the epicenters of stress propagation.
{"title":"How stressed are the banks? An inter-temporal network analysis","authors":"Pankaj Swain , Abhishek Poddar , Arun Kumar Misra","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101369","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101369","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study employs a network model to examine the dynamics of stress in the Indian banking system. The study designs comprehensive Stress Network Structures under different phases of the economic cycle by integrating stress scores of constituent banks with a measure of return connectedness among them. Important metrics of the Stress Network Structures are combined to construct respective Stress Network Indices (SNIs). Besides identifying significant determinants of SNIs, the analysis identified major stress-emitting institutions. Our results underscore the potential of rapid stress transmission and greater destabilizing impact in a tightly interconnected Stress Network, characterized by a high average clustering coefficient and lower average path length. The paper also measures the magnitude of stress spillover, emphasizing its positive association with the degree of interconnectedness among banks during economic upturns and downturns. From a policy perspective, the study recommends a greater regulatory focus on Systemically Important Banks (SIBs) that serve as the epicenters of stress propagation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101369"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01Epub Date: 2025-09-25DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101370
Pedro Henrique Alves Pereira , Jose Angelo Divino
Compared with developed countries, emerging small open economies (ESOEs) experience greater economic fluctuations, mostly driven by commodity price shocks, balance-sheet constraints, and procyclical fiscal policies. This paper examines how monetary and sterilized foreign exchange (FX) interventions affect welfare and economic stability in the ESOEs. Sterilized FX interventions consistently improve welfare in all monetary policy arrangements. Ignoring the output gap in Taylor-type interest rate rules leads to significant welfare costs, particularly in economies with high exposure to foreign markets. The combination of Friedman rule with FX intervention neutralizes money-financed fiscal deficit and foreign shocks, improves welfare by reducing economic volatility, and highlights the importance of coordinated monetary and FX policies to stabilize ESOEs.
{"title":"Monetary policy and foreign exchange interventions in emerging small open economies","authors":"Pedro Henrique Alves Pereira , Jose Angelo Divino","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101370","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101370","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compared with developed countries, emerging small open economies (ESOEs) experience greater economic fluctuations, mostly driven by commodity price shocks, balance-sheet constraints, and procyclical fiscal policies. This paper examines how monetary and sterilized foreign exchange (FX) interventions affect welfare and economic stability in the ESOEs. Sterilized FX interventions consistently improve welfare in all monetary policy arrangements. Ignoring the output gap in Taylor-type interest rate rules leads to significant welfare costs, particularly in economies with high exposure to foreign markets. The combination of Friedman rule with FX intervention neutralizes money-financed fiscal deficit and foreign shocks, improves welfare by reducing economic volatility, and highlights the importance of coordinated monetary and FX policies to stabilize ESOEs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101370"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145157852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01Epub Date: 2025-09-12DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101366
Paulo Matos , Aline Soares
We add to the debate on access to finance by proposing an empirical exercise to address how credit, monetary, and macroeconomic variables can explain the time-specific behavior of the real variation in earmarked and non-earmarked credit issued to households in Brazil. We test an economic model by reconciling Brazil's limited availability of monthly data with the insights from the theoretical model suggested by Rubaszek and Serwa (2014) and the empirical literature applied to emerging markets. First, we estimate a standard Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. To capture the dynamic nature of household credit, we employ a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient VAR model (BTVC-VAR). About the messages of this paper, first we provide a methodological contribution because the joint behavior of both types of credit is crucial to understand their dynamics in the sense of a general equilibrium approach. Second, when we compare the standard VAR and BTCV-VAR, we can see how important it is to allow flexibility of parameters since the dynamics seem to have changed over time, from April 2011 to December 2023. We highlight the significant role played by non-earmarked spread, the average term of both types of credit, economic activity (IBC-BR), and the R$/US$ exchange rate. This exercise contributes to the discussion on financial stability and monetary policy and can be replicated for other emerging markets.
{"title":"On the time-varying behavior of household credit in Brazil","authors":"Paulo Matos , Aline Soares","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101366","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101366","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We add to the debate on access to finance by proposing an empirical exercise to address how credit, monetary, and macroeconomic variables can explain the time-specific behavior of the real variation in earmarked and non-earmarked credit issued to households in Brazil. We test an economic model by reconciling Brazil's limited availability of monthly data with the insights from the theoretical model suggested by Rubaszek and Serwa (2014) and the empirical literature applied to emerging markets. First, we estimate a standard Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. To capture the dynamic nature of household credit, we employ a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient VAR model (BTVC-VAR). About the messages of this paper, first we provide a methodological contribution because the joint behavior of both types of credit is crucial to understand their dynamics in the sense of a general equilibrium approach. Second, when we compare the standard VAR and BTCV-VAR, we can see how important it is to allow flexibility of parameters since the dynamics seem to have changed over time, from April 2011 to December 2023. We highlight the significant role played by non-earmarked spread, the average term of both types of credit, economic activity (IBC-BR), and the R$/US$ exchange rate. This exercise contributes to the discussion on financial stability and monetary policy and can be replicated for other emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101366"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}