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Decentralized finance (literacy) today and in 2034: Initial insights from Singapore and beyond 今天和2034年的去中心化金融(识字):来自新加坡及其他地区的初步见解
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101378
Daniel Liebau
How will Decentralized Finance transform financial services? Using New Institutional Economics and Dynamic Capabilities Theory, I analyse survey data from 109 experts using non-parametric methods. Experts span traditional finance, DeFi industry, and academia. Four insights emerge: adoption expectations rise from negligible to 43% expecting at least high adoption by 2034; experts expect convergence scenarios over disruption, with traditional finance embracing DeFi most likely; back-office transforms before customer-facing functions; strategic competencies eclipse DeFi-sector specific- and technical skills. Financial institutions should prioritize DeFi Literacy. DeFi represents emerging market entry requiring organizational transformation, not just technological implementation. Recent SEC developments are broadly consistent with expert expectations.
去中心化金融将如何改变金融服务?运用新制度经济学和动态能力理论,采用非参数方法对109位专家的调查数据进行分析。专家来自传统金融、DeFi行业和学术界。由此产生了以下四点见解:到2034年,对人工智能的采用率期望从微不足道上升到43%,预计采用率至少会很高;专家预计,融合将取代颠覆,传统金融最有可能拥抱DeFi;面向客户功能前的后台转换;战略能力超越了金融行业的具体技能和技术技能。金融机构应优先考虑DeFi素养。DeFi代表新兴市场进入需要组织转型,而不仅仅是技术实施。美国证交会最近的进展大体上符合专家的预期。
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引用次数: 0
House price co-movement and labor migration: Evidence from China 房价联动与劳动力迁移:来自中国的证据
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101365
Zhengyi Zhou
This paper investigates the effect of house price co-movement on inter-city labor migration, leveraging China's unique institutional background. We construct a shift-share instrumental variable (IV) for house price co-movement, using pairwise banking integration as a source of exogenous variation. We find that at household level, house price co-movement facilitates inter-city labor migration, particularly for migrants with a stronger incentive to hedge against housing consumption risk. At city-pair level, house price co-movement also positively affects migration flows. Hence, as housing market interventions become increasingly city-specific, policymakers should take measures to prevent the deterrence of labor mobility.
本文利用中国独特的制度背景,考察房价联动对城市间劳动力迁移的影响。我们构建了一个变动份额工具变量(IV)的房价共同运动,使用两两银行整合作为外生变化的来源。我们发现,在家庭层面上,房价联动促进了城市间劳动力迁移,特别是对于那些对冲住房消费风险的动机更强的农民工。在城市对水平上,房价联动也对移民流动产生积极影响。因此,随着房地产市场干预变得越来越有城市针对性,政策制定者应该采取措施防止阻碍劳动力流动。
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引用次数: 0
Formal and informal debt in China: Evidence from the 2014 hukou reform 中国的正式和非正式债务:来自2014年户籍改革的证据
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101367
Lei Xu , Massimiliano Tani , Yu Zhu , Xin Wen
We investigate the impact of China's 2014 hukou reform – a major change allowing migrants living in small and medium-sized cities of less than 5 million people to apply for urban residence - on formal and informal borrowing at a time of rapid economic transformation. We find that the hukou policy change has predominantly increased natives' access to finance, especially through informal sources, and for investments in housing. We also find that the policy affects households differently according to education level, with more educated households borrowing more to capitalise on rising asset prices driven by the ‘additional’ urban population created by the policy.
我们调查了中国2014年户籍改革的影响——这是一项重大变革,允许生活在人口不足500万的中小城市的流动人口申请城市户口——在经济快速转型时期对正式和非正式借贷的影响。我们发现,户籍政策的变化主要是增加了本地人获得融资的渠道,尤其是通过非正式渠道,以及住房投资。我们还发现,根据受教育程度的不同,该政策对家庭的影响也不同,受教育程度越高的家庭借贷越多,以利用该政策创造的“额外”城市人口推动的资产价格上涨。
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引用次数: 0
Pooling wisdom: The impact of investors' private information transmission on corporate investment efficiency 汇聚智慧:投资者私人信息传递对企业投资效率的影响
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101342
Runmei Luo, Yong Ye, Manman Li, Jingxin Li
This study examines whether and how private information transmitted by investors during interactions with managers affects corporate investment efficiency, with a particular focus on the role of managerial learning. Utilizing textual data from earnings communication conferences (ECCs) of Chinese listed companies, we find that the substantive information conveyed by investors helps mitigate firms' inefficient investment. Further analysis reveals that this mitigating effect is more pronounced when managers are highly competent or when firms place greater emphasis on investor protection, whereas it is weaker when CEOs are overconfident or when firms face more severe financing constraints. After conducting robustness checks on variable validity and sensitivity, and addressing potential endogeneity concerns, the main conclusions remain robust. Additional analyses suggest that managerial learning effects serve as the underlying mechanism through which the transmission of investors' private information influences investment efficiency, and such information transmission primarily suppresses inefficient investments by alleviating corporate underinvestment. This study underscores the informational role of investors in capital markets and provides critical insights for firms to optimize resource allocation.
本研究考察了投资者在与管理者互动过程中传递的私人信息是否以及如何影响企业投资效率,并特别关注管理学习的作用。利用我国上市公司盈余沟通会议(ECCs)的文本数据,我们发现投资者传递的实质性信息有助于缓解企业的低效投资。进一步的分析表明,当经理能力很强或公司更重视投资者保护时,这种缓解效应更为明显,而当首席执行官过于自信或公司面临更严重的融资约束时,这种缓解效应就更弱。在对变量的有效性和敏感性进行稳健性检查,并解决潜在的内生性问题后,主要结论仍然是稳健性的。进一步的分析表明,管理学习效应是投资者私人信息传递影响投资效率的潜在机制,这种信息传递主要通过缓解企业投资不足来抑制低效投资。本研究强调了投资者在资本市场中的信息作用,为企业优化资源配置提供了重要的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of energy restructuring on green technology innovation in the context of climate policy uncertainty 气候政策不确定性背景下能源结构调整对绿色技术创新的影响
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101377
Shikuan Zhao , Sabri Boubaker , Ahmed Imran Hunjra , Ping Yang
We examine the impact of energy restructuring on green innovation by using a panel dataset from 30 provinces spanning from 2011 to 2021. We find that energy restructuring significantly enhances urban green technological innovation, particularly in provinces with high industrialization, concentrated manufacturing, and strict environmental regulations. This study provides a novel perspective by examining the dynamic relationship between energy restructuring and green innovation, with a focus on the mediating roles of labor productivity and digital infrastructure. It also uncovers significant spatial spillover effects, demonstrating that energy restructuring not only benefits the targeted regions but also positively impacts neighboring areas.
本文利用2011 - 2021年中国30个省份的面板数据,研究了能源结构调整对绿色创新的影响。研究发现,能源结构调整显著促进了城市绿色技术创新,特别是在工业化程度高、制造业集中、环保法规严格的省份。本研究通过考察能源结构调整与绿色创新之间的动态关系提供了一个新的视角,重点研究了劳动生产率和数字基础设施的中介作用。研究还发现,能源结构调整不仅有利于目标区域,也会对周边地区产生积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
Credit financing, accounting quality and distress under financial turmoil: Evidence from small partnerships 金融动荡下的信贷融资、会计质量和困境:来自小型合伙企业的证据
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101368
Panagiotis E. Dimitropoulos
The impact of the recent financial crisis on the financing opportunities and viability of firms has been extensively studied in the literature, with a focus on large, listed corporations. Loss avoidance behavior allows managers to report a more stable income stream, assisting market participants to assess firm prospects. The scope of this study is to examine the impact of loss avoidance and earnings management on the credit financing of small private partnerships within Greece, which is a country that faced a huge backlash on the viability of small businesses. The study collected a sample from 1119 small partnerships which have published abbreviated financial statements over the period 2003–2018. Empirical evidence suggests that firms with higher loss avoidance and discretionary accruals during the sovereign debt crisis period were receiving more credit from their suppliers, a fact that is positively associated with higher viability (lower distress risk). This is the first study in the literature considering loss avoidance behavior and credit financing before and during a debt crisis, within small partnership firms.
最近的金融危机对企业融资机会和生存能力的影响在文献中得到了广泛的研究,重点是大型上市公司。避免损失的行为使管理者能够报告更稳定的收入流,帮助市场参与者评估公司的前景。本研究的范围是研究损失规避和盈余管理对希腊小型私人合伙企业信贷融资的影响,希腊是一个面临小企业生存能力巨大反弹的国家。该研究收集了1119家小型合伙企业的样本,这些企业在2003年至2018年期间发布了简短的财务报表。经验证据表明,在主权债务危机期间,具有较高的损失规避和可自由支配应计利润的公司从供应商那里获得了更多的信贷,这一事实与较高的生存能力(较低的困境风险)呈正相关。这是文献中第一个考虑小型合伙企业债务危机前和危机期间的损失规避行为和信贷融资的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Family firms and risk taking: Does the integration of ESG practices matter? 家族企业与风险承担:ESG实践的整合重要吗?
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101359
Karren Lee-Hwei Khaw , Yi Wei , Shiyue Ma
This study examines the evolving risk-taking behavior of family firms and the role of ESG integration in mitigating excessive risk-taking. Traditionally viewed as risk-averse, family firms are increasingly engaging in higher risk-taking to enhance competitiveness and sustain long-term growth. We find that ESG adoption significantly reduces risk-taking in family firms by improving internal control quality, governance transparency, and reducing financial constraint, thereby strengthening overall corporate resilience. Robustness tests confirm these findings, while heterogeneity analysis reveals variations across firm life cycles, ownership structures, and industry contexts. Overall, ESG serves as a crucial governance mechanism, balancing strategic risk-taking with long-term sustainability in family firms.
本研究考察了家族企业风险承担行为的演变,以及ESG整合在缓解过度风险承担中的作用。传统上被视为厌恶风险的家族企业,正越来越多地承担更高的风险,以提高竞争力和维持长期增长。我们发现,采用ESG可以通过提高内部控制质量、治理透明度和减少财务约束,从而显著降低家族企业的风险承担,从而增强企业的整体弹性。稳健性测试证实了这些发现,而异质性分析揭示了企业生命周期、所有权结构和行业背景之间的差异。总体而言,ESG是一种至关重要的治理机制,在家族企业的战略风险承担与长期可持续性之间取得平衡。
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引用次数: 0
How stressed are the banks? An inter-temporal network analysis 银行的压力有多大?跨时间网络分析
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101369
Pankaj Swain , Abhishek Poddar , Arun Kumar Misra
This study employs a network model to examine the dynamics of stress in the Indian banking system. The study designs comprehensive Stress Network Structures under different phases of the economic cycle by integrating stress scores of constituent banks with a measure of return connectedness among them. Important metrics of the Stress Network Structures are combined to construct respective Stress Network Indices (SNIs). Besides identifying significant determinants of SNIs, the analysis identified major stress-emitting institutions. Our results underscore the potential of rapid stress transmission and greater destabilizing impact in a tightly interconnected Stress Network, characterized by a high average clustering coefficient and lower average path length. The paper also measures the magnitude of stress spillover, emphasizing its positive association with the degree of interconnectedness among banks during economic upturns and downturns. From a policy perspective, the study recommends a greater regulatory focus on Systemically Important Banks (SIBs) that serve as the epicenters of stress propagation.
本研究采用网络模型来考察印度银行系统的压力动态。本研究通过整合各组成银行的压力得分,并结合各组成银行之间的回报连通性来设计经济周期不同阶段下的综合压力网络结构。结合应力网络结构的重要指标,构建相应的应力网络指标。除了确定sni的重要决定因素外,分析还确定了主要的压力释放机构。我们的研究结果强调了在紧密连接的应力网络中快速应力传递和更大的不稳定影响的潜力,其特征是高平均聚类系数和较低的平均路径长度。本文还测量了压力溢出的大小,强调其与经济上行和下行期间银行之间的相互联系程度呈正相关。从政策角度来看,该研究建议加大对系统重要性银行(SIBs)的监管力度,因为它们是压力传播的中心。
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引用次数: 0
Monetary policy and foreign exchange interventions in emerging small open economies 新兴小型开放经济体的货币政策和外汇干预
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101370
Pedro Henrique Alves Pereira , Jose Angelo Divino
Compared with developed countries, emerging small open economies (ESOEs) experience greater economic fluctuations, mostly driven by commodity price shocks, balance-sheet constraints, and procyclical fiscal policies. This paper examines how monetary and sterilized foreign exchange (FX) interventions affect welfare and economic stability in the ESOEs. Sterilized FX interventions consistently improve welfare in all monetary policy arrangements. Ignoring the output gap in Taylor-type interest rate rules leads to significant welfare costs, particularly in economies with high exposure to foreign markets. The combination of Friedman rule with FX intervention neutralizes money-financed fiscal deficit and foreign shocks, improves welfare by reducing economic volatility, and highlights the importance of coordinated monetary and FX policies to stabilize ESOEs.
与发达国家相比,新兴小型开放经济体(ESOEs)的经济波动更大,其主要原因是大宗商品价格冲击、资产负债表约束和顺周期财政政策。本文考察了货币和冲销外汇(FX)干预如何影响ESOEs的福利和经济稳定。在所有货币政策安排中,冲销式外汇干预持续改善福利。在泰勒式利率规则中忽略产出缺口会导致巨大的福利成本,特别是在那些对外市场敞口很大的经济体中。弗里德曼规则与外汇干预的结合可以中和货币融资的财政赤字和外国冲击,通过减少经济波动来改善福利,并强调协调货币和外汇政策以稳定esoe的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
On the time-varying behavior of household credit in Brazil 巴西家庭信贷的时变行为研究
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101366
Paulo Matos , Aline Soares
We add to the debate on access to finance by proposing an empirical exercise to address how credit, monetary, and macroeconomic variables can explain the time-specific behavior of the real variation in earmarked and non-earmarked credit issued to households in Brazil. We test an economic model by reconciling Brazil's limited availability of monthly data with the insights from the theoretical model suggested by Rubaszek and Serwa (2014) and the empirical literature applied to emerging markets. First, we estimate a standard Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. To capture the dynamic nature of household credit, we employ a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient VAR model (BTVC-VAR). About the messages of this paper, first we provide a methodological contribution because the joint behavior of both types of credit is crucial to understand their dynamics in the sense of a general equilibrium approach. Second, when we compare the standard VAR and BTCV-VAR, we can see how important it is to allow flexibility of parameters since the dynamics seem to have changed over time, from April 2011 to December 2023. We highlight the significant role played by non-earmarked spread, the average term of both types of credit, economic activity (IBC-BR), and the R$/US$ exchange rate. This exercise contributes to the discussion on financial stability and monetary policy and can be replicated for other emerging markets.
我们提出了一项实证研究,以解决信贷、货币和宏观经济变量如何解释巴西发放给家庭的专项信贷和非专项信贷的实际变化的时间特定行为,从而增加了关于融资渠道的辩论。我们通过将巴西有限的月度数据可用性与Rubaszek和Serwa(2014)提出的理论模型的见解以及应用于新兴市场的实证文献相协调,来测试一个经济模型。首先,我们估计一个标准的向量自回归(VAR)模型。为了捕捉家庭信用的动态特性,我们采用了贝叶斯时变系数VAR模型(BTVC-VAR)。关于本文的信息,首先,我们提供了一种方法上的贡献,因为两种类型的信贷的共同行为对于理解它们在一般均衡方法意义上的动态至关重要。其次,当我们比较标准VAR和BTCV-VAR时,我们可以看到允许参数的灵活性是多么重要,因为动态似乎随着时间的推移而变化,从2011年4月到2023年12月。我们强调了非指定利差、两类信贷的平均期限、经济活动(IBC-BR)和雷亚尔/美元汇率所起的重要作用。这种做法有助于对金融稳定和货币政策的讨论,可以复制到其他新兴市场。
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引用次数: 0
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Emerging Markets Review
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