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Monetary policy and foreign exchange interventions in emerging small open economies 新兴小型开放经济体的货币政策和外汇干预
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101370
Pedro Henrique Alves Pereira , Jose Angelo Divino
Compared with developed countries, emerging small open economies (ESOEs) experience greater economic fluctuations, mostly driven by commodity price shocks, balance-sheet constraints, and procyclical fiscal policies. This paper examines how monetary and sterilized foreign exchange (FX) interventions affect welfare and economic stability in the ESOEs. Sterilized FX interventions consistently improve welfare in all monetary policy arrangements. Ignoring the output gap in Taylor-type interest rate rules leads to significant welfare costs, particularly in economies with high exposure to foreign markets. The combination of Friedman rule with FX intervention neutralizes money-financed fiscal deficit and foreign shocks, improves welfare by reducing economic volatility, and highlights the importance of coordinated monetary and FX policies to stabilize ESOEs.
与发达国家相比,新兴小型开放经济体(ESOEs)的经济波动更大,其主要原因是大宗商品价格冲击、资产负债表约束和顺周期财政政策。本文考察了货币和冲销外汇(FX)干预如何影响ESOEs的福利和经济稳定。在所有货币政策安排中,冲销式外汇干预持续改善福利。在泰勒式利率规则中忽略产出缺口会导致巨大的福利成本,特别是在那些对外市场敞口很大的经济体中。弗里德曼规则与外汇干预的结合可以中和货币融资的财政赤字和外国冲击,通过减少经济波动来改善福利,并强调协调货币和外汇政策以稳定esoe的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Interconnectedness and systemic risk in financial networks: Fresh evidence from India 金融网络中的互联性和系统性风险:来自印度的新证据
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101373
Harshit Kumar Sharma , Wasim Ahmad
Under a dynamic multivariate set-up with time-varying probabilities, we show that the Indian financial network exhibits a high degree of interconnectedness during crisis periods with banks as emitters and NBFCs as receivers of shocks. The structure of systemic risk is endogenous in nature due to the regulations and operational coverage. The dynamic interplay between systemic risk and network connectedness suggests that a sudden rise in systemic risk results in a significant increase in total connectedness, while a connectedness shock has a significant and short-term effect on systemic risk. At the institutional level, a shock to an institution's systemic risk contribution has a long-term impact on its net connectedness, while an unexpected rise in an institution's net connectedness has a persistent and decaying effect on its systemic risk contribution. The learnings are extremely helpful for regulators and banking sector investors.
在具有时变概率的动态多元设置下,我们表明印度金融网络在危机期间表现出高度的互联性,银行作为冲击的排放者,nbfc作为冲击的接受者。由于监管和业务覆盖的关系,系统性风险的结构本质上是内生的。系统风险与网络连通性之间的动态相互作用表明,系统风险的突然上升导致总连通性显著增加,而连通性冲击对系统风险具有显著的短期影响。在制度层面,对机构系统性风险贡献的冲击对其净连通性有长期影响,而机构净连通性的意外上升对其系统性风险贡献有持续和衰减的影响。这些经验教训对监管机构和银行业投资者非常有帮助。
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引用次数: 0
Digital credit scoring and household consumption: Evidence from Sesame Credit in China 数字信用评分与家庭消费:来自中国芝麻信用的证据
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101372
Jie Li , Wenwen Zhou , Xiaohong Li , Yu Wu
This study investigates the welfare-enhancing effects of digital personal credit scoring systems, with a particular focus on household consumption. Utilizing the latest nationally representative microdata from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) for 2021 and 2023, our empirical analysis demonstrates that Sesame Credit – Ant Group's digital credit product - exerts a statistically significant positive effect on household consumption expenditure. This stimulative effect is particularly observed in developmental and hedonic consumption. Mechanism analysis reveal that this impact operates primarily through improved credit accessibility and the relief of liquidity constraints. Furthermore, our results suggest that vulnerable households benefit more from Sesame Credit.
本研究调查了数字个人信用评分系统的福利增强效应,特别关注家庭消费。利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS) 2021年和2023年最新的具有全国代表性的微观数据,我们的实证分析表明,蚂蚁集团的数字信贷产品芝麻信用对家庭消费支出具有统计学显著的正向影响。这种刺激作用在发展性消费和享乐性消费中尤其明显。机制分析表明,这种影响主要通过改善信贷可及性和缓解流动性约束来发挥作用。此外,我们的研究结果表明,弱势家庭从芝麻信用中受益更多。
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引用次数: 0
Actual controllers with foreign residency rights and corporate tax avoidance: Evidence from private listed companies in China 具有境外居留权的实际控制人与企业避税:来自中国民营上市公司的证据
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101371
Xiaozhen Pan, Sabahati Aimaiti
This study empirically tests the effect of actual controllers with foreign residency rights on corporate tax avoidance using a sample of A-share private listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2013 to 2022. The results show that actual controllers with foreign residency rights increase corporate tax avoidance. Specifically, this occurs only under conditions of high tax collection intensity, low media attention, concurrent executive positions, and indirect shareholding. Further research shows that actual controllers with foreign residency rights increase the enterprise's information asymmetry and financing constraints.
本文以2013 - 2022年沪深两市a股民营上市公司为样本,实证检验具有境外居留权的实际控制人对企业避税的影响。结果表明,具有境外居留权的实际控制人增加了企业的避税行为。具体来说,这种情况只发生在税收征收强度高、媒体关注度低、高管职位同时存在以及间接持股的情况下。进一步研究表明,具有外国居留权的实际控制人增加了企业的信息不对称和融资约束。
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引用次数: 0
Private savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲的私人储蓄与COVID-19
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101363
Boileau Loko , Nelie Nembot , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro
The paper investigates the impact of COVID-19 on private savings and economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using data for at least 13 SSA economies, we find that private saving rates have not increased during COVID-19 in SSA, a finding that contrasts with other regions in the world. Instead, COVID-19 mortality in our estimations is significantly associated with a decline in private savings and economic growth in SSA. Robustness checks and analyses of household surveys during the pandemic validate and explore some of the underlying drivers of those results. The paper further confirms real per capita economic growth as a key determinant of private savings in the region since 1983.
本文调查了2019冠状病毒病对撒哈拉以南非洲地区私人储蓄和经济活动的影响。我们利用至少13个SSA经济体的数据发现,在2019冠状病毒病期间,SSA的私人储蓄率没有增加,这一发现与世界其他地区形成了对比。相反,在我们的估计中,COVID-19死亡率与SSA的私人储蓄下降和经济增长显著相关。大流行期间对住户调查的稳健性检查和分析验证并探讨了这些结果的一些潜在驱动因素。论文进一步证实,自1983年以来,实际人均经济增长是该地区私人储蓄的关键决定因素。
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引用次数: 0
How stressed are the banks? An inter-temporal network analysis 银行的压力有多大?跨时间网络分析
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101369
Pankaj Swain , Abhishek Poddar , Arun Kumar Misra
This study employs a network model to examine the dynamics of stress in the Indian banking system. The study designs comprehensive Stress Network Structures under different phases of the economic cycle by integrating stress scores of constituent banks with a measure of return connectedness among them. Important metrics of the Stress Network Structures are combined to construct respective Stress Network Indices (SNIs). Besides identifying significant determinants of SNIs, the analysis identified major stress-emitting institutions. Our results underscore the potential of rapid stress transmission and greater destabilizing impact in a tightly interconnected Stress Network, characterized by a high average clustering coefficient and lower average path length. The paper also measures the magnitude of stress spillover, emphasizing its positive association with the degree of interconnectedness among banks during economic upturns and downturns. From a policy perspective, the study recommends a greater regulatory focus on Systemically Important Banks (SIBs) that serve as the epicenters of stress propagation.
本研究采用网络模型来考察印度银行系统的压力动态。本研究通过整合各组成银行的压力得分,并结合各组成银行之间的回报连通性来设计经济周期不同阶段下的综合压力网络结构。结合应力网络结构的重要指标,构建相应的应力网络指标。除了确定sni的重要决定因素外,分析还确定了主要的压力释放机构。我们的研究结果强调了在紧密连接的应力网络中快速应力传递和更大的不稳定影响的潜力,其特征是高平均聚类系数和较低的平均路径长度。本文还测量了压力溢出的大小,强调其与经济上行和下行期间银行之间的相互联系程度呈正相关。从政策角度来看,该研究建议加大对系统重要性银行(SIBs)的监管力度,因为它们是压力传播的中心。
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引用次数: 0
Does inflation targeting live up to all the hype? 通胀目标制是否如其所言?
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101358
Taniya Ghosh, Yadavindu Ajit
This study evaluates the impact of inflation targeting (IT) on inflation levels, volatility, and persistence in 59 emerging markets from 1985 to 2019, addressing the limitations of traditional methods that ignore staggered adoption. Using methodology that accounts for staggered implementation, IT is found to significantly reduce inflation, particularly when hyperinflationary economies are excluded. However, its effects on volatility and persistence are less conclusive. While traditional models suggest initial reductions in volatility, incorporating staggered adoption reveals no lasting impact. Similarly, IT does not significantly influence inflation persistence. The findings emphasize IT’s effectiveness in lowering inflation but limited influence on other aspects.
本研究评估了通货膨胀目标制(IT)对1985年至2019年59个新兴市场的通货膨胀水平、波动性和持久性的影响,解决了传统方法忽略交错采用的局限性。使用考虑交错实施的方法,发现IT可以显著降低通货膨胀,特别是在排除恶性通货膨胀经济体的情况下。然而,其对波动性和持久性的影响则不那么具有决定性。虽然传统模型表明波动性最初会降低,但纳入错开的采用并未显示出持久的影响。同样,IT也不会显著影响通货膨胀的持续性。研究结果强调了IT在降低通胀方面的有效性,但对其他方面的影响有限。
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引用次数: 0
On the time-varying behavior of household credit in Brazil 巴西家庭信贷的时变行为研究
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101366
Paulo Matos , Aline Soares
We add to the debate on access to finance by proposing an empirical exercise to address how credit, monetary, and macroeconomic variables can explain the time-specific behavior of the real variation in earmarked and non-earmarked credit issued to households in Brazil. We test an economic model by reconciling Brazil's limited availability of monthly data with the insights from the theoretical model suggested by Rubaszek and Serwa (2014) and the empirical literature applied to emerging markets. First, we estimate a standard Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. To capture the dynamic nature of household credit, we employ a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient VAR model (BTVC-VAR). About the messages of this paper, first we provide a methodological contribution because the joint behavior of both types of credit is crucial to understand their dynamics in the sense of a general equilibrium approach. Second, when we compare the standard VAR and BTCV-VAR, we can see how important it is to allow flexibility of parameters since the dynamics seem to have changed over time, from April 2011 to December 2023. We highlight the significant role played by non-earmarked spread, the average term of both types of credit, economic activity (IBC-BR), and the R$/US$ exchange rate. This exercise contributes to the discussion on financial stability and monetary policy and can be replicated for other emerging markets.
我们提出了一项实证研究,以解决信贷、货币和宏观经济变量如何解释巴西发放给家庭的专项信贷和非专项信贷的实际变化的时间特定行为,从而增加了关于融资渠道的辩论。我们通过将巴西有限的月度数据可用性与Rubaszek和Serwa(2014)提出的理论模型的见解以及应用于新兴市场的实证文献相协调,来测试一个经济模型。首先,我们估计一个标准的向量自回归(VAR)模型。为了捕捉家庭信用的动态特性,我们采用了贝叶斯时变系数VAR模型(BTVC-VAR)。关于本文的信息,首先,我们提供了一种方法上的贡献,因为两种类型的信贷的共同行为对于理解它们在一般均衡方法意义上的动态至关重要。其次,当我们比较标准VAR和BTCV-VAR时,我们可以看到允许参数的灵活性是多么重要,因为动态似乎随着时间的推移而变化,从2011年4月到2023年12月。我们强调了非指定利差、两类信贷的平均期限、经济活动(IBC-BR)和雷亚尔/美元汇率所起的重要作用。这种做法有助于对金融稳定和货币政策的讨论,可以复制到其他新兴市场。
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引用次数: 0
Social disclosure, business groups and firm risk 社会披露、企业集团与企业风险
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101364
Dhanushika Samarawickrama, Pallab Kumar Biswas, Helen Roberts
Using a sample of 5718 BSE-listed firm-year observations from 2008 to 2021, we find that increased CSR disclosure (CSRDS) is negatively associated with firm risk. However, the risk-reducing effect of CSRDS is less pronounced in business group firms, with a stronger attenuation in companies managed by affiliated CEOs. Additional analyses indicate that enhanced CSRDS, particularly after the enforcement of mandatory CSR regulations, significantly reduces total and idiosyncratic risk. These findings highlight how mandatory regulatory compliance mitigates specific components of firm risk and offer policymakers, practitioners, and investors insights to navigate risk management within the governance structures of a developing market.
利用2008年至2021年5718家在bse上市公司的年度观察样本,我们发现企业社会责任披露(CSRDS)的增加与企业风险呈负相关。然而,CSRDS降低风险的效果在商业集团公司中不太明显,在关联ceo管理的公司中衰减更强。其他分析表明,加强企业社会责任制度,特别是在强制性企业社会责任法规实施后,显著降低了总风险和特殊风险。这些发现突出了强制性法规遵从如何减轻公司风险的特定组成部分,并为政策制定者、从业者和投资者提供了在发展中市场的治理结构中进行风险管理的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Credit financing, accounting quality and distress under financial turmoil: Evidence from small partnerships 金融动荡下的信贷融资、会计质量和困境:来自小型合伙企业的证据
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101368
Panagiotis E. Dimitropoulos
The impact of the recent financial crisis on the financing opportunities and viability of firms has been extensively studied in the literature, with a focus on large, listed corporations. Loss avoidance behavior allows managers to report a more stable income stream, assisting market participants to assess firm prospects. The scope of this study is to examine the impact of loss avoidance and earnings management on the credit financing of small private partnerships within Greece, which is a country that faced a huge backlash on the viability of small businesses. The study collected a sample from 1119 small partnerships which have published abbreviated financial statements over the period 2003–2018. Empirical evidence suggests that firms with higher loss avoidance and discretionary accruals during the sovereign debt crisis period were receiving more credit from their suppliers, a fact that is positively associated with higher viability (lower distress risk). This is the first study in the literature considering loss avoidance behavior and credit financing before and during a debt crisis, within small partnership firms.
最近的金融危机对企业融资机会和生存能力的影响在文献中得到了广泛的研究,重点是大型上市公司。避免损失的行为使管理者能够报告更稳定的收入流,帮助市场参与者评估公司的前景。本研究的范围是研究损失规避和盈余管理对希腊小型私人合伙企业信贷融资的影响,希腊是一个面临小企业生存能力巨大反弹的国家。该研究收集了1119家小型合伙企业的样本,这些企业在2003年至2018年期间发布了简短的财务报表。经验证据表明,在主权债务危机期间,具有较高的损失规避和可自由支配应计利润的公司从供应商那里获得了更多的信贷,这一事实与较高的生存能力(较低的困境风险)呈正相关。这是文献中第一个考虑小型合伙企业债务危机前和危机期间的损失规避行为和信贷融资的研究。
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引用次数: 0
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Emerging Markets Review
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