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Contagion risk prediction with Chart Graph Convolutional Network: Evidence from Chinese stock market 基于图卷积网络的传染风险预测：来自中国股市的证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101426

Zhensong Chen, Wenjun Zhang, Yinhong Yao

Contagion risk has garnered widespread attention with the major occurrence of financial crises. However, existing literature has mainly focused on the characteristics analysis of risk contagion, while ignoring the prediction of contagion risk. Therefore, considering the importance of time series charts, a framework for contagion risk prediction is proposed by comprehensively mining the features of technical charts and technical indicators. In detail, correlation and centrality of the financial network are extracted to specify the contagion risk. Then, time series charts are converted to graphs by the chart similarity, and each node in the graph is assigned with technical indicators. Finally, a Chart Graph Convolutional Network (Chart GCN) is used to extract the features in the graph and predict the contagion risk. Based on the 28 sectors of the Chinese stock market, we specify the contagion risk and verify its consistency with the occurrence of financial crisis. In addition, our model proves the effectiveness of mining time series chart features in stock market contagion risk prediction. These results are essential for risk management in the financial market.

随着金融危机的多次发生，传染风险受到了广泛关注。然而，现有文献主要侧重于风险传染的特征分析，而忽略了对传染风险的预测。因此，考虑到时间序列图的重要性，综合挖掘技术图和技术指标的特点，提出了传染风险预测的框架。详细地，提取金融网络的相关性和中心性来指定传染风险。然后，根据图表相似度将时间序列图表转换为图表，并为图表中的每个节点分配技术指标。最后，使用图图卷积网络（Chart GCN）提取图中的特征并预测传染风险。基于中国股票市场28个板块，我们对传染风险进行了界定，并验证了其与金融危机发生的一致性。此外，我们的模型证明了挖掘时间序列图特征在股市传染风险预测中的有效性。这些结果对金融市场的风险管理至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

An explainable machine learning model for consumer credit scoring in Mexico 墨西哥消费者信用评分的可解释机器学习模型

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101424

David Ugarte Chacon , Seohyun Lee, Jaehyuk Park

This paper proposes an explainable machine learning model for consumer credit scoring in Mexico, an emerging economy. We develop an extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model using non-traditional data from the Financial Inclusion National Survey. To address the black box problem, we explore the feature importance by estimating the Shapley values that measure the average marginal contributions across all possible subsets of features. The key drivers of consumer credit defaults include the adverse economic effects due to the COVID-19 pandemic and financial attitudes and behaviors. By exploring the distributions of the Shapley values by age and income, we find evidence of non-linearity in the feature explanations.

本文提出了一个可解释的机器学习模型，用于新兴经济体墨西哥的消费者信用评分。我们利用来自普惠金融全国调查的非传统数据开发了一个极端梯度促进（XGBoost）模型。为了解决黑箱问题，我们通过估计Shapley值来探索特征的重要性，Shapley值测量了所有可能的特征子集的平均边际贡献。消费者信贷违约的主要驱动因素包括COVID-19大流行造成的不利经济影响以及金融态度和行为。通过研究沙普利值随年龄和收入的分布，我们发现了特征解释中非线性的证据。

引用次数: 0

Banks' foreign currency revaluations and liquidity creation 银行的外汇重估和流动性创造

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101427

Vladimir Sokolov , Aleksei Gorodilov

We examine the relationship between net revaluations of foreign currency-denominated assets and liabilities and banks' liquidity creation. Our findings reveal a significant effect on FX-USD liquidity creation: revaluations enhance liquidity creation on the asset side but diminish it on the liability side, leading to a total neutral effect. Subsample analysis reveals that banks with positive FX mismatches face liquidity destruction in FX-USD liabilities during exchange rate shocks, whereas negatively FX-mismatched banks use these shocks to extend long-term FX loans, balancing total liquidity creation. For accounts denominated in the domestic currency, no significant effects of net revaluations are observed for liquidity creation on the full sample. For positively FX-mismatched banks net revaluations enhance total liquidity creation, while for negatively FX-mismatched banks reduce it, resulting in an overall neutral outcome for domestic currency liquidity creation. Furthermore, regulatory capital moderates the impact of revaluations on liquidity creation through the financial fragility mechanism. These results underscore the complex interplay of currency risks, balance sheet FX mismatches, and regulatory dynamics in influencing liquidity creation in emerging markets.

我们研究了外币计价资产和负债的净重估与银行流动性创造之间的关系。我们的研究结果揭示了对外汇-美元流动性创造的显著影响：重估增强了资产方面的流动性创造，但减少了负债方面的流动性创造，导致总体中性效应。子样本分析显示，在汇率冲击期间，外汇正错配的银行面临外汇-美元负债的流动性破坏，而外汇负错配的银行利用这些冲击延长长期外汇贷款，平衡总流动性创造。对于以本币计价的账户，在整个样本中没有观察到净重估对流动性创造的显著影响。对于正向外汇错配的银行，净重估提高了总流动性创造，而对于负向外汇错配的银行，净重估减少了总流动性创造，导致国内货币流动性创造的总体中性结果。此外，监管资本通过金融脆弱性机制缓和了货币重估对流动性创造的影响。这些结果强调了货币风险、资产负债表外汇错配和监管动态在影响新兴市场流动性创造方面的复杂相互作用。

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引用次数: 0

Who falls behind under interest rate shock? Early evidence from households with variable-rate mortgages 在利率冲击下，谁会落后？早期证据来自拥有浮动利率抵押贷款的家庭

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101408

Katarzyna Kochaniak , Agnieszka Huterska

This study examines Polish households with variable-rate domestic currency mortgages during the 2022 - mid-2023 interest rate shock. Using a unique dataset and econometric modelling, it identifies financial-economic, socio-demographic, and attitudinal characteristics of households that experienced delayed instalment repayments. These difficulties were primarily associated with households' financial-economic features, particularly broader financial constraints and deteriorated living standards. A strong association with the Mortgage Service-to-Income (MStDI) ratio underscores its relevance as a key indicator of financial vulnerability among the analysed households under stress. The findings offer directions for further research and institutional reflection aimed at developing consumer protection policy.

本研究考察了波兰家庭在2022年至2023年中期利率冲击期间的可变利率本币抵押贷款。使用独特的数据集和计量经济模型，它确定了经历延迟分期付款的家庭的金融、经济、社会人口和态度特征。这些困难主要与家庭的财政-经济特征有关，特别是更广泛的财政限制和生活水平的恶化。与抵押贷款服务与收入（MStDI）比率的强烈关联强调了其作为分析压力下家庭财务脆弱性的关键指标的相关性。研究结果为进一步研究和制定消费者保护政策的制度反思提供了方向。

引用次数: 0

What role do limited partnership agreements play in labor investment efficiency? Evidence from Chinese markets 有限合伙协议对劳动投资效率有何影响？来自中国市场的证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101409

Meixi Chen , Yi-Chang Chen , Zhihua Wei

The Limited Partnership Agreement (LPA) enables flexible ownership structures for actual controllers. This study examines the impact of the LPA structure on labor investment efficiency among Chinese listed firms from 2014 to 2021. We find that firms with LPA structure exhibit 21.53% higher inefficient labor investment compared to those without LPA structure, with the effect driven by principal-agent conflicts and information asymmetry. More specifically, we find that the impact of the LPA structure on labor investment efficiency is manifested through staffing imbalances. In addition, the negative effect is more pronounced among firms with weaker corporate governance, higher labor adjustment costs, and higher human capital intensity. Our results also reveal that the LPA structure increases the stickiness of labor costs. Overall, the findings indicate the governance risks of partnership-based ownership and provide practical guidance for optimizing labor investment through ownership design.

有限合伙协议（LPA）为实际控制人提供灵活的所有权结构。本研究考察了2014 - 2021年LPA结构对中国上市公司劳动投资效率的影响。研究发现，在委托代理冲突和信息不对称的驱动下，具有LPA结构的企业的低效劳动投资比不具有LPA结构的企业高21.53%。更具体地说，我们发现LPA结构对劳动投资效率的影响表现为人员配置失衡。此外，在公司治理较弱、劳动力调整成本较高、人力资本强度较高的企业中，这种负面影响更为明显。研究结果还表明，LPA结构增加了劳动力成本的粘性。总体而言，研究结果揭示了合伙制股权的治理风险，并为通过股权设计优化劳动力投资提供了实践指导。

引用次数: 0

How does housing wealth affect happiness? 住房财富如何影响幸福感？

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101406

Mingzhi Hu , Yinxin Su

This study estimates the causal effect of housing wealth appreciation on happiness by exploiting a policy-induced discontinuity in housing value based on house size. Using regression discontinuity analysis of nationally representative household survey data, we find that housing wealth appreciation significantly improves individual happiness. We also find the impact is more pronounced among females, stronger for young households than older ones, and more significant for liquidity-constrained households. These findings highlight housing wealth as a key determinant of happiness, offering important insights for policymakers seeking to improve citizen well-being through housing market policies.

本研究通过利用政策导致的基于房屋大小的住房价值的不连续性来估计住房财富增值对幸福感的因果关系。通过对全国代表性住户调查数据的不连续回归分析，我们发现住房财富增值显著提高了个体幸福感。我们还发现，这种影响在女性中更为明显，在年轻家庭中强于年长家庭，在流动性受限的家庭中更为显著。这些发现强调了住房财富是幸福的关键决定因素，为寻求通过住房市场政策改善公民福祉的政策制定者提供了重要见解。

引用次数: 0

Family firms and tax avoidance preferences: Evidence from India 家族企业与避税偏好：来自印度的证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101410

T.K. Ajmal , Ankit Singhal , Vinod Kumar , Nader Atawnah

Recent research on the tax avoidance preferences of family firms has yielded mixed results. We address this by examining tax avoidance behaviour in the Indian market, a unique setting characterised by concentrated family ownership and comparatively weak investor protections. Our findings show that family firms engage in less tax avoidance than non-family firms, particularly when descendant family members serve as chairpersons or CEOs. We further identify a U-shaped association between family ownership and tax avoidance: moderate family ownership reduces avoidance through alignment effects, whereas very high ownership fosters entrenchment and greater avoidance. Subsample analyses reveal that the negative association between family ownership and tax avoidance holds only under low competition and limited market growth. In highly competitive and high-growth environments, external pressures outweigh family-specific concerns. Overall, our findings enrich the understanding of family firms' tax behaviour in emerging markets and offer important implications for governance, investor protection, and tax policy.

最近对家族企业避税偏好的研究得出了不同的结果。我们通过研究印度市场的避税行为来解决这个问题，印度市场是一个独特的环境，其特点是集中的家族所有权和相对较弱的投资者保护。我们的研究结果表明，家族企业的避税行为比非家族企业要少，尤其是当家族后代成员担任董事长或首席执行官时。我们进一步确定了家族所有权与避税之间的u型关联：适度的家族所有权通过结盟效应减少了避税，而非常高的所有权则促进了堑壕和更大的避税。子样本分析表明，家族所有权与避税之间的负相关关系仅在低竞争和有限的市场增长下成立。在高度竞争和高增长的环境中，外部压力超过了家庭的具体关切。总体而言，我们的研究结果丰富了对新兴市场家族企业税收行为的理解，并为治理、投资者保护和税收政策提供了重要启示。

引用次数: 0

Chairperson's intra-country migrant marriage and corporate R&D investment: Evidence from Chinese family firms 董事长跨国婚姻与企业研发投资：来自中国家族企业的证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101413

Yuan Chen , Xiaogang He

Marriage can profoundly shape a chairperson's risk preferences and managerial capabilities. Drawing on social network theory and the theory of diversity cascades across organizational hierarchies, we investigate the impact of intra-country migrant marriage on family firms' research and development (R&D) investment. Analyzing panel data from Chinese family firms spanning 2008 to 2020 reveals that intra-country migrant marriage significantly increases R&D investment. However, this effect weakens under high market and policy uncertainties. Mechanism analysis supports both a direct effect through expanded social networks and an indirect effect via top management team diversity. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the effect weakens only when the chairperson's blood relatives are involved in the firm's management or in regions with well-developed labor markets, whereas it is more pronounced in regions characterized by advanced technology markets.

婚姻可以深刻地塑造董事长的风险偏好和管理能力。利用社会网络理论和跨组织层级的多样性级联理论，我们研究了国内移民婚姻对家族企业研发投资的影响。对2008年至2020年中国家族企业面板数据的分析表明，国内移民婚姻显著增加了研发投资。然而，在市场和政策高度不确定性的情况下，这种效应减弱。机制分析既支持通过扩大社会网络产生的直接效应，也支持通过高层管理团队多样性产生的间接效应。异质性分析进一步表明，只有当董事长的直系亲属参与公司管理或在劳动力市场发达的地区，这种效应才会减弱，而在技术市场发达的地区，这种效应更为明显。

引用次数: 0

Municipal governor turnovers and targeted poverty alleviation of listed private firms 省长换届与民营上市公司精准扶贫

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101414

Weidong Zhang , Hongrui Zheng , Donghui Li , Zihuang Chen , Kai Wu

Based on 7041 firm-year observations from 234 prefecture-level regions in China, this study finds that interregional turnover of municipal governors promotes private firms' participation in the Targeted Poverty Alleviation (TPA) investment program. The effect is more pronounced for firms having stronger political ties, or located in areas with severe poverty, or fiscal stress. Firms investing more in TPA subsequently receive more government subsidies. Further analysis shows that newly appointed governors, especially those transferred from other regions, promote corporate participation through onsite inspections, highlighting the importance of direct government–business interaction.

基于对中国234个地级市7041个企业年的观察，本研究发现，区际省长更替促进了民营企业参与精准扶贫投资计划。对于那些政治关系较强、或位于严重贫困地区或财政紧张地区的公司，这种影响更为明显。在贸易促进权上投资更多的公司随后会得到更多的政府补贴。进一步分析表明，新任命的省长，特别是从其他地区调来的省长，通过实地考察促进企业参与，突出了政商直接互动的重要性。

引用次数: 0

Tax authority independence and earnings management 税务机关独立性和盈余管理

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101412

Honghui Zhang , Yuanyuan Hu , Linyi Zhang

This study investigates how tax authority independence affects corporate earnings management. We employ a difference-in-differences approach and find that increased tax authority independence significantly reduces earnings management, particularly for firms engaging in downward earnings management. Additionally, we observe that this negative correlation is influenced by factors such as ownership structure, political connections, audit quality, and legal environment. Furthermore, we demonstrate that enhanced tax enforcement and corporate governance serve as channels through which the independence of tax authorities mitigates earnings manipulation.

本研究探讨税务机关独立性对企业盈余管理的影响。我们采用了差异中的差异方法，发现税务机关独立性的提高显著减少了盈余管理，特别是对于从事向下盈余管理的公司。此外，我们观察到这种负相关关系受到股权结构、政治关系、审计质量和法律环境等因素的影响。此外，我们还证明，加强税务执法和公司治理是税务机关独立性减轻盈余操纵的渠道。

引用次数: 0

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