Pub Date : 2025-12-10DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101424
David Ugarte Chacon , Seohyun Lee, Jaehyuk Park
This paper proposes an explainable machine learning model for consumer credit scoring in Mexico, an emerging economy. We develop an extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model using non-traditional data from the Financial Inclusion National Survey. To address the black box problem, we explore the feature importance by estimating the Shapley values that measure the average marginal contributions across all possible subsets of features. The key drivers of consumer credit defaults include the adverse economic effects due to the COVID-19 pandemic and financial attitudes and behaviors. By exploring the distributions of the Shapley values by age and income, we find evidence of non-linearity in the feature explanations.
{"title":"An explainable machine learning model for consumer credit scoring in Mexico","authors":"David Ugarte Chacon , Seohyun Lee, Jaehyuk Park","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101424","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101424","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes an explainable machine learning model for consumer credit scoring in Mexico, an emerging economy. We develop an extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model using non-traditional data from the Financial Inclusion National Survey. To address the black box problem, we explore the feature importance by estimating the Shapley values that measure the average marginal contributions across all possible subsets of features. The key drivers of consumer credit defaults include the adverse economic effects due to the COVID-19 pandemic and financial attitudes and behaviors. By exploring the distributions of the Shapley values by age and income, we find evidence of non-linearity in the feature explanations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101424"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145749771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-09DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101427
Vladimir Sokolov , Aleksei Gorodilov
We examine the relationship between net revaluations of foreign currency-denominated assets and liabilities and banks' liquidity creation. Our findings reveal a significant effect on FX-USD liquidity creation: revaluations enhance liquidity creation on the asset side but diminish it on the liability side, leading to a total neutral effect. Subsample analysis reveals that banks with positive FX mismatches face liquidity destruction in FX-USD liabilities during exchange rate shocks, whereas negatively FX-mismatched banks use these shocks to extend long-term FX loans, balancing total liquidity creation. For accounts denominated in the domestic currency, no significant effects of net revaluations are observed for liquidity creation on the full sample. For positively FX-mismatched banks net revaluations enhance total liquidity creation, while for negatively FX-mismatched banks reduce it, resulting in an overall neutral outcome for domestic currency liquidity creation. Furthermore, regulatory capital moderates the impact of revaluations on liquidity creation through the financial fragility mechanism. These results underscore the complex interplay of currency risks, balance sheet FX mismatches, and regulatory dynamics in influencing liquidity creation in emerging markets.
{"title":"Banks' foreign currency revaluations and liquidity creation","authors":"Vladimir Sokolov , Aleksei Gorodilov","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101427","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101427","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the relationship between net revaluations of foreign currency-denominated assets and liabilities and banks' liquidity creation. Our findings reveal a significant effect on FX-USD liquidity creation: revaluations enhance liquidity creation on the asset side but diminish it on the liability side, leading to a total neutral effect. Subsample analysis reveals that banks with positive FX mismatches face liquidity destruction in FX-USD liabilities during exchange rate shocks, whereas negatively FX-mismatched banks use these shocks to extend long-term FX loans, balancing total liquidity creation. For accounts denominated in the domestic currency, no significant effects of net revaluations are observed for liquidity creation on the full sample. For positively FX-mismatched banks net revaluations enhance total liquidity creation, while for negatively FX-mismatched banks reduce it, resulting in an overall neutral outcome for domestic currency liquidity creation. Furthermore, regulatory capital moderates the impact of revaluations on liquidity creation through the financial fragility mechanism. These results underscore the complex interplay of currency risks, balance sheet FX mismatches, and regulatory dynamics in influencing liquidity creation in emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101427"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145797802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-04DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101408
Katarzyna Kochaniak , Agnieszka Huterska
This study examines Polish households with variable-rate domestic currency mortgages during the 2022 - mid-2023 interest rate shock. Using a unique dataset and econometric modelling, it identifies financial-economic, socio-demographic, and attitudinal characteristics of households that experienced delayed instalment repayments. These difficulties were primarily associated with households' financial-economic features, particularly broader financial constraints and deteriorated living standards. A strong association with the Mortgage Service-to-Income (MStDI) ratio underscores its relevance as a key indicator of financial vulnerability among the analysed households under stress. The findings offer directions for further research and institutional reflection aimed at developing consumer protection policy.
{"title":"Who falls behind under interest rate shock? Early evidence from households with variable-rate mortgages","authors":"Katarzyna Kochaniak , Agnieszka Huterska","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101408","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101408","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines Polish households with variable-rate domestic currency mortgages during the 2022 - mid-2023 interest rate shock. Using a unique dataset and econometric modelling, it identifies financial-economic, socio-demographic, and attitudinal characteristics of households that experienced delayed instalment repayments. These difficulties were primarily associated with households' financial-economic features, particularly broader financial constraints and deteriorated living standards. A strong association with the Mortgage Service-to-Income (MStDI) ratio underscores its relevance as a key indicator of financial vulnerability among the analysed households under stress. The findings offer directions for further research and institutional reflection aimed at developing consumer protection policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101408"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145749772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-29DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101409
Meixi Chen , Yi-Chang Chen , Zhihua Wei
The Limited Partnership Agreement (LPA) enables flexible ownership structures for actual controllers. This study examines the impact of the LPA structure on labor investment efficiency among Chinese listed firms from 2014 to 2021. We find that firms with LPA structure exhibit 21.53% higher inefficient labor investment compared to those without LPA structure, with the effect driven by principal-agent conflicts and information asymmetry. More specifically, we find that the impact of the LPA structure on labor investment efficiency is manifested through staffing imbalances. In addition, the negative effect is more pronounced among firms with weaker corporate governance, higher labor adjustment costs, and higher human capital intensity. Our results also reveal that the LPA structure increases the stickiness of labor costs. Overall, the findings indicate the governance risks of partnership-based ownership and provide practical guidance for optimizing labor investment through ownership design.
{"title":"What role do limited partnership agreements play in labor investment efficiency? Evidence from Chinese markets","authors":"Meixi Chen , Yi-Chang Chen , Zhihua Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101409","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101409","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Limited Partnership Agreement (LPA) enables flexible ownership structures for actual controllers. This study examines the impact of the LPA structure on labor investment efficiency among Chinese listed firms from 2014 to 2021. We find that firms with LPA structure exhibit 21.53% higher inefficient labor investment compared to those without LPA structure, with the effect driven by principal-agent conflicts and information asymmetry. More specifically, we find that the impact of the LPA structure on labor investment efficiency is manifested through staffing imbalances. In addition, the negative effect is more pronounced among firms with weaker corporate governance, higher labor adjustment costs, and higher human capital intensity. Our results also reveal that the LPA structure increases the stickiness of labor costs. Overall, the findings indicate the governance risks of partnership-based ownership and provide practical guidance for optimizing labor investment through ownership design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101409"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145692595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-29DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101406
Mingzhi Hu , Yinxin Su
This study estimates the causal effect of housing wealth appreciation on happiness by exploiting a policy-induced discontinuity in housing value based on house size. Using regression discontinuity analysis of nationally representative household survey data, we find that housing wealth appreciation significantly improves individual happiness. We also find the impact is more pronounced among females, stronger for young households than older ones, and more significant for liquidity-constrained households. These findings highlight housing wealth as a key determinant of happiness, offering important insights for policymakers seeking to improve citizen well-being through housing market policies.
{"title":"How does housing wealth affect happiness?","authors":"Mingzhi Hu , Yinxin Su","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101406","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101406","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study estimates the causal effect of housing wealth appreciation on happiness by exploiting a policy-induced discontinuity in housing value based on house size. Using regression discontinuity analysis of nationally representative household survey data, we find that housing wealth appreciation significantly improves individual happiness. We also find the impact is more pronounced among females, stronger for young households than older ones, and more significant for liquidity-constrained households. These findings highlight housing wealth as a key determinant of happiness, offering important insights for policymakers seeking to improve citizen well-being through housing market policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101406"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145692601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Recent research on the tax avoidance preferences of family firms has yielded mixed results. We address this by examining tax avoidance behaviour in the Indian market, a unique setting characterised by concentrated family ownership and comparatively weak investor protections. Our findings show that family firms engage in less tax avoidance than non-family firms, particularly when descendant family members serve as chairpersons or CEOs. We further identify a U-shaped association between family ownership and tax avoidance: moderate family ownership reduces avoidance through alignment effects, whereas very high ownership fosters entrenchment and greater avoidance. Subsample analyses reveal that the negative association between family ownership and tax avoidance holds only under low competition and limited market growth. In highly competitive and high-growth environments, external pressures outweigh family-specific concerns. Overall, our findings enrich the understanding of family firms' tax behaviour in emerging markets and offer important implications for governance, investor protection, and tax policy.
{"title":"Family firms and tax avoidance preferences: Evidence from India","authors":"T.K. Ajmal , Ankit Singhal , Vinod Kumar , Nader Atawnah","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101410","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101410","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent research on the tax avoidance preferences of family firms has yielded mixed results. We address this by examining tax avoidance behaviour in the Indian market, a unique setting characterised by concentrated family ownership and comparatively weak investor protections. Our findings show that family firms engage in less tax avoidance than non-family firms, particularly when descendant family members serve as chairpersons or CEOs. We further identify a U-shaped association between family ownership and tax avoidance: moderate family ownership reduces avoidance through alignment effects, whereas very high ownership fosters entrenchment and greater avoidance. Subsample analyses reveal that the negative association between family ownership and tax avoidance holds only under low competition and limited market growth. In highly competitive and high-growth environments, external pressures outweigh family-specific concerns. Overall, our findings enrich the understanding of family firms' tax behaviour in emerging markets and offer important implications for governance, investor protection, and tax policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101410"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145614712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-27DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101413
Yuan Chen , Xiaogang He
Marriage can profoundly shape a chairperson's risk preferences and managerial capabilities. Drawing on social network theory and the theory of diversity cascades across organizational hierarchies, we investigate the impact of intra-country migrant marriage on family firms' research and development (R&D) investment. Analyzing panel data from Chinese family firms spanning 2008 to 2020 reveals that intra-country migrant marriage significantly increases R&D investment. However, this effect weakens under high market and policy uncertainties. Mechanism analysis supports both a direct effect through expanded social networks and an indirect effect via top management team diversity. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the effect weakens only when the chairperson's blood relatives are involved in the firm's management or in regions with well-developed labor markets, whereas it is more pronounced in regions characterized by advanced technology markets.
{"title":"Chairperson's intra-country migrant marriage and corporate R&D investment: Evidence from Chinese family firms","authors":"Yuan Chen , Xiaogang He","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101413","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101413","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Marriage can profoundly shape a chairperson's risk preferences and managerial capabilities. Drawing on social network theory and the theory of diversity cascades across organizational hierarchies, we investigate the impact of intra-country migrant marriage on family firms' research and development (R&D) investment. Analyzing panel data from Chinese family firms spanning 2008 to 2020 reveals that intra-country migrant marriage significantly increases R&D investment. However, this effect weakens under high market and policy uncertainties. Mechanism analysis supports both a direct effect through expanded social networks and an indirect effect via top management team diversity. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the effect weakens only when the chairperson's blood relatives are involved in the firm's management or in regions with well-developed labor markets, whereas it is more pronounced in regions characterized by advanced technology markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101413"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145614710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-25DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101412
Honghui Zhang , Yuanyuan Hu , Linyi Zhang
This study investigates how tax authority independence affects corporate earnings management. We employ a difference-in-differences approach and find that increased tax authority independence significantly reduces earnings management, particularly for firms engaging in downward earnings management. Additionally, we observe that this negative correlation is influenced by factors such as ownership structure, political connections, audit quality, and legal environment. Furthermore, we demonstrate that enhanced tax enforcement and corporate governance serve as channels through which the independence of tax authorities mitigates earnings manipulation.
{"title":"Tax authority independence and earnings management","authors":"Honghui Zhang , Yuanyuan Hu , Linyi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101412","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101412","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how tax authority independence affects corporate earnings management. We employ a difference-in-differences approach and find that increased tax authority independence significantly reduces earnings management, particularly for firms engaging in downward earnings management. Additionally, we observe that this negative correlation is influenced by factors such as ownership structure, political connections, audit quality, and legal environment. Furthermore, we demonstrate that enhanced tax enforcement and corporate governance serve as channels through which the independence of tax authorities mitigates earnings manipulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101412"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145692594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-25DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101414
Weidong Zhang , Hongrui Zheng , Donghui Li , Zihuang Chen , Kai Wu
Based on 7041 firm-year observations from 234 prefecture-level regions in China, this study finds that interregional turnover of municipal governors promotes private firms' participation in the Targeted Poverty Alleviation (TPA) investment program. The effect is more pronounced for firms having stronger political ties, or located in areas with severe poverty, or fiscal stress. Firms investing more in TPA subsequently receive more government subsidies. Further analysis shows that newly appointed governors, especially those transferred from other regions, promote corporate participation through onsite inspections, highlighting the importance of direct government–business interaction.
{"title":"Municipal governor turnovers and targeted poverty alleviation of listed private firms","authors":"Weidong Zhang , Hongrui Zheng , Donghui Li , Zihuang Chen , Kai Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101414","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101414","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on 7041 firm-year observations from 234 prefecture-level regions in China, this study finds that interregional turnover of municipal governors promotes private firms' participation in the Targeted Poverty Alleviation (TPA) investment program. The effect is more pronounced for firms having stronger political ties, or located in areas with severe poverty, or fiscal stress. Firms investing more in TPA subsequently receive more government subsidies. Further analysis shows that newly appointed governors, especially those transferred from other regions, promote corporate participation through onsite inspections, highlighting the importance of direct government–business interaction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101414"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145614711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-25DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101411
Shaolin Wang , Jianli Wang , Minghua Dong , Jingyuan Li
This study investigates peer effects in ESG practice by analyzing Chinese listed companies from 2009 to 2022. After incorporating the impact of ESG rating disagreement, we document the significant existence of peer effects of ESG practice. Mechanism analysis shows these effects are amplified by high information uncertainty and information transmission efficiency. Heterogeneity tests reveal stronger peer effects in non-state-owned, follower, and non-heavy-polluting firms. Additionally, we find peer effects of ESG practice is strongest for social activities and exhibit regional spillovers. Furthermore, this imitation is selective, as firms replicate positive ESG practice rather than controversies.
{"title":"Peer effects of corporate ESG practice: Incorporating the impact of ESG rating disagreement","authors":"Shaolin Wang , Jianli Wang , Minghua Dong , Jingyuan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101411","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101411","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates peer effects in ESG practice by analyzing Chinese listed companies from 2009 to 2022. After incorporating the impact of ESG rating disagreement, we document the significant existence of peer effects of ESG practice. Mechanism analysis shows these effects are amplified by high information uncertainty and information transmission efficiency. Heterogeneity tests reveal stronger peer effects in non-state-owned, follower, and non-heavy-polluting firms. Additionally, we find peer effects of ESG practice is strongest for social activities and exhibit regional spillovers. Furthermore, this imitation is selective, as firms replicate positive ESG practice rather than controversies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101411"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145645880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号