首页 > 最新文献

Emerging Markets Review最新文献

英文 中文
Do state religions affect entrepreneurial financing? A cross-country analysis 国家宗教会影响企业融资吗?跨国分析
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101434
Min Maung
We find robust evidence that the presence of state religions reduces entrepreneurial financing in a large cross section of countries. The effect of state religions is mediated by increased aversion to risk, stricter business restrictions, lower financial development, and reduced participation in religious memberships. Religious participation increases entrepreneurial financing in countries without state religions. However, in countries with state religions, the effect of religious participation is either negative or insignificant. The reduction in financing in countries with state-sponsored religions likely comes from the institutional and cultural environments associated with the presence of state religions.
我们发现有力的证据表明,国家宗教的存在减少了许多国家的创业融资。国家宗教的影响是通过增加对风险的厌恶、更严格的商业限制、更低的金融发展和更少的宗教成员参与来调解的。在没有国教的国家,宗教参与增加了企业融资。然而,在有国教的国家,宗教参与的影响要么是负面的,要么是微不足道的。在有国家支持的宗教的国家,资金的减少可能来自与国家宗教存在相关的制度和文化环境。
{"title":"Do state religions affect entrepreneurial financing? A cross-country analysis","authors":"Min Maung","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101434","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101434","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We find robust evidence that the presence of state religions reduces entrepreneurial financing in a large cross section of countries. The effect of state religions is mediated by increased aversion to risk, stricter business restrictions, lower financial development, and reduced participation in religious memberships. Religious participation <em>increases</em> entrepreneurial financing in countries <em>without</em> state religions. However, in countries with state religions, the effect of religious participation is either negative or insignificant. The reduction in financing in countries with state-sponsored religions likely comes from the institutional and cultural environments associated with the presence of state religions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101434"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145884308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reexamining the effects of FinTech on household consumption: A perspective on monopoly alleviation 重新审视金融科技对家庭消费的影响:一个缓解垄断的视角
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101430
Hang Cai , Ying Liu , Zhitao Xiong
This paper reexamines how FinTech affects household consumption from the novel perspective of monopoly alleviation. Employing an extended Hotelling model, we demonstrate that FinTech reduces transportation costs, facilitating household switching between firms. This effect lowers price premiums at the Nash equilibrium, thereby boosting consumption quantities. The resulting improvements in utility, reduction in inequality, and changes in consumption structure contribute to increased household welfare. Utilizing simulations and calibrations based on real data, we further explore the policy implications. Overall, our paper emphasizes the positive effect of FinTech on household welfare, which differs from previous literature primarily focused on increased consumption expenditure.
本文从缓解垄断的新视角重新审视金融科技对居民消费的影响。采用扩展的Hotelling模型,我们证明了金融科技降低了运输成本,促进了家庭在公司之间的转换。这种效应降低了纳什均衡下的价格溢价,从而提高了消费数量。由此产生的效用的改善、不平等的减少和消费结构的变化有助于增加家庭福利。利用基于真实数据的模拟和校准,我们进一步探讨了政策含义。总体而言,我们的论文强调金融科技对家庭福利的积极影响,这与以往文献主要关注消费支出的增加不同。
{"title":"Reexamining the effects of FinTech on household consumption: A perspective on monopoly alleviation","authors":"Hang Cai ,&nbsp;Ying Liu ,&nbsp;Zhitao Xiong","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101430","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101430","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper reexamines how FinTech affects household consumption from the novel perspective of monopoly alleviation. Employing an extended Hotelling model, we demonstrate that FinTech reduces transportation costs, facilitating household switching between firms. This effect lowers price premiums at the Nash equilibrium, thereby boosting consumption quantities. The resulting improvements in utility, reduction in inequality, and changes in consumption structure contribute to increased household welfare. Utilizing simulations and calibrations based on real data, we further explore the policy implications. Overall, our paper emphasizes the positive effect of FinTech on household welfare, which differs from previous literature primarily focused on increased consumption expenditure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101430"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Information infrastructure, knowledge spillover, and technological innovation — Evidence from the internet penetration rates of emerging market 信息基础设施、知识溢出与技术创新——来自新兴市场互联网普及率的证据
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101432
Wang Lumeng , Chen Shilai , Hoje Jo , Muhammad Safdar Sial
Information infrastructure serves as a critical material foundation for industrial innovation, a role that has been amplified by widespread Internet penetration in the information age. This study examines the effect of information infrastructure, proxied by Internet penetration rates, on technological innovation in China over the period 2007–2022. We identify a significant positive causal relationship, whereby improved information infrastructure not only increases patent output but also enhances the quality of innovation. Our mechanism tests indicate that knowledge spillovers are a primary channel through which infrastructure fosters corporate innovation. The heterogeneity analysis suggests that the effect is significantly more pronounced in regions with stronger intellectual property rights and lower industrial concentration, with high-tech industries deriving the most significant advantage. We also find that information infrastructure promotes exploitative innovation, patent diversity, and technological proximity, but has no statistically significant effect on exploratory innovation. The study concludes with targeted policy implications for enhancing technological innovation among firms in developing countries.
信息基础设施是产业创新的重要物质基础,在信息时代,互联网的广泛普及进一步放大了这一作用。本研究考察了2007-2022年中国信息基础设施(以互联网普及率为代表)对技术创新的影响。我们发现了显著的正向因果关系,即改进的信息基础设施不仅增加了专利产出,而且提高了创新质量。我们的机制检验表明,知识溢出是基础设施促进企业创新的主要渠道。异质性分析表明,在知识产权水平越高、产业集中度越低的地区,这种效应更为显著,高新技术产业的优势最为显著。信息基础设施促进了剥削性创新、专利多样性和技术接近性,但对探索性创新没有显著影响。该研究最后提出了加强发展中国家企业技术创新的有针对性的政策含义。
{"title":"Information infrastructure, knowledge spillover, and technological innovation — Evidence from the internet penetration rates of emerging market","authors":"Wang Lumeng ,&nbsp;Chen Shilai ,&nbsp;Hoje Jo ,&nbsp;Muhammad Safdar Sial","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101432","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101432","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Information infrastructure serves as a critical material foundation for industrial innovation, a role that has been amplified by widespread Internet penetration in the information age. This study examines the effect of information infrastructure, proxied by Internet penetration rates, on technological innovation in China over the period 2007–2022. We identify a significant positive causal relationship, whereby improved information infrastructure not only increases patent output but also enhances the quality of innovation. Our mechanism tests indicate that knowledge spillovers are a primary channel through which infrastructure fosters corporate innovation. The heterogeneity analysis suggests that the effect is significantly more pronounced in regions with stronger intellectual property rights and lower industrial concentration, with high-tech industries deriving the most significant advantage. We also find that information infrastructure promotes exploitative innovation, patent diversity, and technological proximity, but has no statistically significant effect on exploratory innovation. The study concludes with targeted policy implications for enhancing technological innovation among firms in developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101432"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145884306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effects of superstition on household consumption: Evidence from “zodiac-year” beliefs in China 迷信对家庭消费的影响:来自中国“生肖”信仰的证据
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101429
Yang Hu , Wei Cui , Yongli Zhang
This paper investigates the impact of superstition, specifically beliefs in misfortune during one's zodiac year, on household consumption in China. Utilizing data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), our analysis reveals a significant decrease in household consumption during individuals' zodiac year. Further exploration indicates that this decline is attributed to heightened risk perception and an “infectious effect”, where the superstition spread through social interactions. The zodiac effect is more pronounced among individuals with Eastern religious beliefs, the elderly, non-Communist Party members, those without college degrees, and urban residents. Additional scrutiny shows that this effect permeates various consumption categories, with an increased impact on durables. Importantly, no anticipatory or lingering impacts are observed, suggesting the effect is contained to the zodiac year. Although financial well-being remains unchanged, the decline in self-reported happiness points to non-monetary welfare losses stemming from superstitiously motivated consumption cuts.
本文调查了迷信的影响,特别是在一个人的生肖年不幸的信念,对家庭消费在中国。利用中国家庭面板研究(CFPS)的数据,我们的分析显示,在个人的生肖年,家庭消费显著减少。进一步的研究表明,这种下降归因于风险意识的增强和“传染效应”,迷信通过社会互动传播。生肖效应在信仰东方宗教的人、老年人、非共产党员、没有大学学历的人和城市居民中更为明显。进一步的审查表明,这种影响渗透到各种消费类别,对耐用品的影响越来越大。重要的是,没有观察到预期或持续的影响,这表明这种影响仅限于黄道带年。尽管经济状况没有改变,但自我幸福感的下降表明,非货币福利损失源于迷信动机的消费削减。
{"title":"Effects of superstition on household consumption: Evidence from “zodiac-year” beliefs in China","authors":"Yang Hu ,&nbsp;Wei Cui ,&nbsp;Yongli Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101429","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101429","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of superstition, specifically beliefs in misfortune during one's zodiac year, on household consumption in China. Utilizing data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), our analysis reveals a significant decrease in household consumption during individuals' zodiac year. Further exploration indicates that this decline is attributed to heightened risk perception and an “infectious effect”, where the superstition spread through social interactions. The zodiac effect is more pronounced among individuals with Eastern religious beliefs, the elderly, non-Communist Party members, those without college degrees, and urban residents. Additional scrutiny shows that this effect permeates various consumption categories, with an increased impact on durables. Importantly, no anticipatory or lingering impacts are observed, suggesting the effect is contained to the zodiac year. Although financial well-being remains unchanged, the decline in self-reported happiness points to non-monetary welfare losses stemming from superstitiously motivated consumption cuts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101429"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145797803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does sentiment influence corporate innovation investment? 情绪是否影响企业创新投资?
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101431
Karam Kim , Jonathan A. Batten , Doojin Ryu
This study examines whether market sentiment affects innovation investment by firms in an emerging market, focusing on Korean firms. We find a significantly positive relationship between market sentiment and innovation investment. For financially constrained firms, sentiment increases both innovation and physical investment, which indicates reliance on sentiment driven equity financing. Firms that are affiliated with chaebols are more likely to adjust research and development investment in response to market sentiment. During periods of high market uncertainty such as the COVID 19 period, the effect of market sentiment on research and development decisions is stronger for financially unconstrained firms. Managerial sentiment amplifies the effect of market sentiment on innovation but does not influence physical investment. Our results show that sentiment acts as an alternative financing mechanism that supports innovation in financially constrained firms.
本研究以韩国企业为研究对象,探讨市场情绪是否会影响新兴市场企业的创新投资。我们发现市场情绪与创新投资之间存在显著的正相关关系。对于资金紧张的企业,情绪增加了创新和实物投资,这表明对情绪驱动的股权融资的依赖。与财阀有关联的企业更有可能根据市场情绪调整研发投资。在市场高度不确定的时期,如COVID - 19时期,市场情绪对研发决策的影响对财务不受约束的公司更强。管理情绪放大了市场情绪对创新的影响,但不影响实物投资。我们的研究结果表明,在资金紧张的企业中,情绪作为一种替代融资机制支持创新。
{"title":"Does sentiment influence corporate innovation investment?","authors":"Karam Kim ,&nbsp;Jonathan A. Batten ,&nbsp;Doojin Ryu","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101431","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101431","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines whether market sentiment affects innovation investment by firms in an emerging market, focusing on Korean firms. We find a significantly positive relationship between market sentiment and innovation investment. For financially constrained firms, sentiment increases both innovation and physical investment, which indicates reliance on sentiment driven equity financing. Firms that are affiliated with chaebols are more likely to adjust research and development investment in response to market sentiment. During periods of high market uncertainty such as the COVID 19 period, the effect of market sentiment on research and development decisions is stronger for financially unconstrained firms. Managerial sentiment amplifies the effect of market sentiment on innovation but does not influence physical investment. Our results show that sentiment acts as an alternative financing mechanism that supports innovation in financially constrained firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"72 ","pages":"Article 101431"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145947974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The local influence of fund management company shareholders on fund investment decisions and performance 基金管理公司股东对基金投资决策和绩效的局部影响
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101428
Xin Hong , Jia Mao , Zhuang Zhuang
This paper examines how the geographical locations of shareholders in mutual fund management companies influence fund investment decisions and performance in China. Using a hand-collected sample comprises 3610 mutual funds managed by 143 fund management companies from 2010 to 2021, we employ a double-clustering methodology to demonstrate that mutual funds are significantly more likely to hold and overweight stocks from regions where their management company's shareholders are located. These regionally aligned holdings generate superior returns and contribute meaningfully to overall fund performance, particularly in stocks with high information asymmetry. The findings suggest that shareholders provide informational advantages that shape portfolio choices, offering new insights into the origins and consequences of local bias in institutional investment.
本文考察了中国共同基金管理公司股东的地理位置对基金投资决策和业绩的影响。我们使用手工收集的样本,包括143家基金管理公司从2010年到2021年管理的3610只共同基金,采用双聚类方法来证明共同基金更有可能持有和增持来自其管理公司股东所在地区的股票。这些与地区一致的持股产生了卓越的回报,并对整体基金业绩做出了有意义的贡献,尤其是在信息高度不对称的股票中。研究结果表明,股东提供了影响投资组合选择的信息优势,为机构投资中地方偏见的起源和后果提供了新的见解。
{"title":"The local influence of fund management company shareholders on fund investment decisions and performance","authors":"Xin Hong ,&nbsp;Jia Mao ,&nbsp;Zhuang Zhuang","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101428","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101428","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how the geographical locations of shareholders in mutual fund management companies influence fund investment decisions and performance in China. Using a hand-collected sample comprises 3610 mutual funds managed by 143 fund management companies from 2010 to 2021, we employ a double-clustering methodology to demonstrate that mutual funds are significantly more likely to hold and overweight stocks from regions where their management company's shareholders are located. These regionally aligned holdings generate superior returns and contribute meaningfully to overall fund performance, particularly in stocks with high information asymmetry. The findings suggest that shareholders provide informational advantages that shape portfolio choices, offering new insights into the origins and consequences of local bias in institutional investment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101428"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145797770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Contagion risk prediction with Chart Graph Convolutional Network: Evidence from Chinese stock market 基于图卷积网络的传染风险预测:来自中国股市的证据
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101426
Zhensong Chen, Wenjun Zhang, Yinhong Yao
Contagion risk has garnered widespread attention with the major occurrence of financial crises. However, existing literature has mainly focused on the characteristics analysis of risk contagion, while ignoring the prediction of contagion risk. Therefore, considering the importance of time series charts, a framework for contagion risk prediction is proposed by comprehensively mining the features of technical charts and technical indicators. In detail, correlation and centrality of the financial network are extracted to specify the contagion risk. Then, time series charts are converted to graphs by the chart similarity, and each node in the graph is assigned with technical indicators. Finally, a Chart Graph Convolutional Network (Chart GCN) is used to extract the features in the graph and predict the contagion risk. Based on the 28 sectors of the Chinese stock market, we specify the contagion risk and verify its consistency with the occurrence of financial crisis. In addition, our model proves the effectiveness of mining time series chart features in stock market contagion risk prediction. These results are essential for risk management in the financial market.
随着金融危机的多次发生,传染风险受到了广泛关注。然而,现有文献主要侧重于风险传染的特征分析,而忽略了对传染风险的预测。因此,考虑到时间序列图的重要性,综合挖掘技术图和技术指标的特点,提出了传染风险预测的框架。详细地,提取金融网络的相关性和中心性来指定传染风险。然后,根据图表相似度将时间序列图表转换为图表,并为图表中的每个节点分配技术指标。最后,使用图图卷积网络(Chart GCN)提取图中的特征并预测传染风险。基于中国股票市场28个板块,我们对传染风险进行了界定,并验证了其与金融危机发生的一致性。此外,我们的模型证明了挖掘时间序列图特征在股市传染风险预测中的有效性。这些结果对金融市场的风险管理至关重要。
{"title":"Contagion risk prediction with Chart Graph Convolutional Network: Evidence from Chinese stock market","authors":"Zhensong Chen,&nbsp;Wenjun Zhang,&nbsp;Yinhong Yao","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101426","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101426","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Contagion risk has garnered widespread attention with the major occurrence of financial crises. However, existing literature has mainly focused on the characteristics analysis of risk contagion, while ignoring the prediction of contagion risk. Therefore, considering the importance of time series charts, a framework for contagion risk prediction is proposed by comprehensively mining the features of technical charts and technical indicators. In detail, correlation and centrality of the financial network are extracted to specify the contagion risk. Then, time series charts are converted to graphs by the chart similarity, and each node in the graph is assigned with technical indicators. Finally, a Chart Graph Convolutional Network (Chart GCN) is used to extract the features in the graph and predict the contagion risk. Based on the 28 sectors of the Chinese stock market, we specify the contagion risk and verify its consistency with the occurrence of financial crisis. In addition, our model proves the effectiveness of mining time series chart features in stock market contagion risk prediction. These results are essential for risk management in the financial market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101426"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145749770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An explainable machine learning model for consumer credit scoring in Mexico 墨西哥消费者信用评分的可解释机器学习模型
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101424
David Ugarte Chacon , Seohyun Lee, Jaehyuk Park
This paper proposes an explainable machine learning model for consumer credit scoring in Mexico, an emerging economy. We develop an extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model using non-traditional data from the Financial Inclusion National Survey. To address the black box problem, we explore the feature importance by estimating the Shapley values that measure the average marginal contributions across all possible subsets of features. The key drivers of consumer credit defaults include the adverse economic effects due to the COVID-19 pandemic and financial attitudes and behaviors. By exploring the distributions of the Shapley values by age and income, we find evidence of non-linearity in the feature explanations.
本文提出了一个可解释的机器学习模型,用于新兴经济体墨西哥的消费者信用评分。我们利用来自普惠金融全国调查的非传统数据开发了一个极端梯度促进(XGBoost)模型。为了解决黑箱问题,我们通过估计Shapley值来探索特征的重要性,Shapley值测量了所有可能的特征子集的平均边际贡献。消费者信贷违约的主要驱动因素包括COVID-19大流行造成的不利经济影响以及金融态度和行为。通过研究沙普利值随年龄和收入的分布,我们发现了特征解释中非线性的证据。
{"title":"An explainable machine learning model for consumer credit scoring in Mexico","authors":"David Ugarte Chacon ,&nbsp;Seohyun Lee,&nbsp;Jaehyuk Park","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101424","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101424","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes an explainable machine learning model for consumer credit scoring in Mexico, an emerging economy. We develop an extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model using non-traditional data from the Financial Inclusion National Survey. To address the black box problem, we explore the feature importance by estimating the Shapley values that measure the average marginal contributions across all possible subsets of features. The key drivers of consumer credit defaults include the adverse economic effects due to the COVID-19 pandemic and financial attitudes and behaviors. By exploring the distributions of the Shapley values by age and income, we find evidence of non-linearity in the feature explanations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101424"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145749771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Banks' foreign currency revaluations and liquidity creation 银行的外汇重估和流动性创造
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101427
Vladimir Sokolov , Aleksei Gorodilov
We examine the relationship between net revaluations of foreign currency-denominated assets and liabilities and banks' liquidity creation. Our findings reveal a significant effect on FX-USD liquidity creation: revaluations enhance liquidity creation on the asset side but diminish it on the liability side, leading to a total neutral effect. Subsample analysis reveals that banks with positive FX mismatches face liquidity destruction in FX-USD liabilities during exchange rate shocks, whereas negatively FX-mismatched banks use these shocks to extend long-term FX loans, balancing total liquidity creation. For accounts denominated in the domestic currency, no significant effects of net revaluations are observed for liquidity creation on the full sample. For positively FX-mismatched banks net revaluations enhance total liquidity creation, while for negatively FX-mismatched banks reduce it, resulting in an overall neutral outcome for domestic currency liquidity creation. Furthermore, regulatory capital moderates the impact of revaluations on liquidity creation through the financial fragility mechanism. These results underscore the complex interplay of currency risks, balance sheet FX mismatches, and regulatory dynamics in influencing liquidity creation in emerging markets.
我们研究了外币计价资产和负债的净重估与银行流动性创造之间的关系。我们的研究结果揭示了对外汇-美元流动性创造的显著影响:重估增强了资产方面的流动性创造,但减少了负债方面的流动性创造,导致总体中性效应。子样本分析显示,在汇率冲击期间,外汇正错配的银行面临外汇-美元负债的流动性破坏,而外汇负错配的银行利用这些冲击延长长期外汇贷款,平衡总流动性创造。对于以本币计价的账户,在整个样本中没有观察到净重估对流动性创造的显著影响。对于正向外汇错配的银行,净重估提高了总流动性创造,而对于负向外汇错配的银行,净重估减少了总流动性创造,导致国内货币流动性创造的总体中性结果。此外,监管资本通过金融脆弱性机制缓和了货币重估对流动性创造的影响。这些结果强调了货币风险、资产负债表外汇错配和监管动态在影响新兴市场流动性创造方面的复杂相互作用。
{"title":"Banks' foreign currency revaluations and liquidity creation","authors":"Vladimir Sokolov ,&nbsp;Aleksei Gorodilov","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101427","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101427","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the relationship between net revaluations of foreign currency-denominated assets and liabilities and banks' liquidity creation. Our findings reveal a significant effect on FX-USD liquidity creation: revaluations enhance liquidity creation on the asset side but diminish it on the liability side, leading to a total neutral effect. Subsample analysis reveals that banks with positive FX mismatches face liquidity destruction in FX-USD liabilities during exchange rate shocks, whereas negatively FX-mismatched banks use these shocks to extend long-term FX loans, balancing total liquidity creation. For accounts denominated in the domestic currency, no significant effects of net revaluations are observed for liquidity creation on the full sample. For positively FX-mismatched banks net revaluations enhance total liquidity creation, while for negatively FX-mismatched banks reduce it, resulting in an overall neutral outcome for domestic currency liquidity creation. Furthermore, regulatory capital moderates the impact of revaluations on liquidity creation through the financial fragility mechanism. These results underscore the complex interplay of currency risks, balance sheet FX mismatches, and regulatory dynamics in influencing liquidity creation in emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101427"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145797802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Transition to a low-carbon economy and its implications for financial stability in Russia 向低碳经济转型及其对俄罗斯金融稳定的影响
IF 4.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101425
Anna Burova , Elena Deryugina , Nadezhda Ivanova , Maxim Morozov , Natalia Turdyeva
The energy transition and the climate policies accompanying it represent one of the major challenges for the Russian economy. Using a CGE model and a firm-level financial model, we evaluate transition risks for Russia's financial system. Our analysis reveals that the main costs to Russia from global net-zero efforts are largely exogenous, stemming from a decline in the value of its energy products rather than from domestic climate policies. Moreover, the effects of global climate actions in the Net Zero scenario exceed those of implementing a domestic emissions trading system aligned with Russia's low-carbon development strategy. The granular data in the satelite financial models makes it possible to evaluate the concentration of sectoral debt burden and estimate the impact of climate regulations on sectors' equity valuations.
能源转型和随之而来的气候政策是俄罗斯经济面临的主要挑战之一。本文采用CGE模型和公司层面的金融模型,对俄罗斯金融体系的转型风险进行了评估。我们的分析表明,全球净零排放努力给俄罗斯带来的主要成本在很大程度上是外生的,源于其能源产品价值的下降,而不是国内气候政策。此外,在净零情景下,全球气候行动的影响超过了实施符合俄罗斯低碳发展战略的国内排放交易体系的影响。卫星金融模型中的细粒度数据使我们能够评估部门债务负担的集中程度,并估计气候法规对部门股权估值的影响。
{"title":"Transition to a low-carbon economy and its implications for financial stability in Russia","authors":"Anna Burova ,&nbsp;Elena Deryugina ,&nbsp;Nadezhda Ivanova ,&nbsp;Maxim Morozov ,&nbsp;Natalia Turdyeva","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101425","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101425","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The energy transition and the climate policies accompanying it represent one of the major challenges for the Russian economy. Using a CGE model and a firm-level financial model, we evaluate transition risks for Russia's financial system. Our analysis reveals that the main costs to Russia from global net-zero efforts are largely exogenous, stemming from a decline in the value of its energy products rather than from domestic climate policies. Moreover, the effects of global climate actions in the Net Zero scenario exceed those of implementing a domestic emissions trading system aligned with Russia's low-carbon development strategy. The granular data in the satelite financial models makes it possible to evaluate the concentration of sectoral debt burden and estimate the impact of climate regulations on sectors' equity valuations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"72 ","pages":"Article 101425"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Emerging Markets Review
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1