Emerging Markets Review最新文献

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CEO early-life experience and corporate accounting conservatism: Insights from the socio-political context 首席执行官的早年经历与企业会计保守主义：社会政治背景的启示

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101215

Xutang Liu , Martin Young , Jing Liao

Using China's Cultural Revolution as a shock to risk attitude, this study investigates the effect of CEOs' early-life experience on corporate accounting conservatism. We find that CEOs who experienced the Cultural Revolution in their early life are more risk-averse and conservative, and thereby are associated with a higher level of accounting conservatism. Such a positive relationship is more pronounced in provinces with higher political risks, e.g., where the provincial leadership changes and where high-profile provincial bureaucratic corruption cases occur. Also, the positive effect of CEOs' early-life experience is stronger in SOEs where CEOs' political career concerns are more pronounced. Additional analysis suggests that CEOs with early-life Cultural Revolution experience are more likely to adopt conservative accounting practice, such as increasing firm's provisions for liabilities and reducing accrual-based earnings management. Our results add new evidence to support the upper echelons theory and imprinting theory by highlighting the enduring impact of influential socio-political events during early life on the decision-making processes of CEOs.

本研究以中国的文化大革命作为对风险态度的冲击，探讨了首席执行官早年经历对企业会计保守主义的影响。我们发现，早年经历过 "文革 "的 CEO 规避风险的能力更强，也更保守，因此他们的会计保守主义水平也更高。这种正相关关系在政治风险较高的省份更为明显，例如，省级领导更迭的省份和发生高调省级官僚腐败案件的省份。此外，CEO 早期经历的积极影响在国有企业中更为明显，因为在这些企业中，CEO 对政治生涯的关注更为突出。其他分析表明，具有早期 "文革 "经历的首席执行官更有可能采取保守的会计做法，如增加公司的负债准备金和减少基于权责发生制的收益管理。我们的研究结果为支持上层理论和印记理论提供了新的证据，强调了早年有影响力的社会政治事件对首席执行官决策过程的持久影响。

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引用次数: 0

Can value-added tax refund policy inhibit corporate financial fraud? Evidence from China 增值税退税政策能否抑制企业财务造假？来自中国的证据

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101212

Wei Yu , Yueyun Yan , Keying Zhu , Peijue Zhang

This paper examines the impact of China's 2018 VAT refund policy on corporate financial fraud, using a difference-in-differences approach. Findings demonstrate that the policy significantly reduces corporate financial fraud, which is confirmed through various robustness tests. The VAT refund policy deters corporate financial fraud by addressing motivational pressures, limiting opportunities, and challenging justifications, effectively targeting the fraud triangle's core elements. The policy's effects are especially strong in high-tech and privately-held firms. The study extends knowledge of VAT policies' roles in corporate decision-making and offers policy guidelines to combat corporate malfeasance.

本文采用差分法研究了中国 2018 年增值税退税政策对企业财务舞弊的影响。研究结果表明，该政策显著减少了企业财务舞弊，并通过各种稳健性检验证实了这一点。增值税退税政策通过解决动机压力、限制机会和挑战理由来遏制企业财务欺诈，有效地针对了欺诈三角的核心要素。该政策对高科技企业和私营企业的影响尤为显著。这项研究拓展了人们对增值税政策在企业决策中作用的认识，并为打击企业渎职行为提供了政策指导。

引用次数: 0

Heterogeneous uncertainty matters! Evidence based on firms' cost management decisions 异质性不确定性很重要！基于企业成本管理决策的证据

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101210

Lu Li , Xi Yuan , Shuang Wei , Guochao Yang

The literature traditionally treats the uncertainty firms encounter as a whole, neglecting the inherent heterogeneity of uncertainty that prevails in the real world. To address this critical issue, this study employs natural language processing methods to decompose uncertainty into three distinct levels: firm-level, industry-level, and macro-level uncertainty. We then examine the impact of heterogeneous uncertainty on corporate decision-making from a cost management perspective. Our findings indicate that while uncertainty as a whole increases cost stickiness, this effect mainly stems from firm-level uncertainty rather than industry-level and macro-level uncertainty. These findings suggest that firms only respond to uncertainty when they perceive uncertainty at the firm level. Cross-sectional tests indicate that the impact of uncertainty on cost stickiness is more pronounced when firms face higher adjustment costs, lower financing constraints, and lower competitive pressures than otherwise. Additionally, uncertainty diminishes firms' cost elasticity, curtailing their production flexibility. Collectively, our results provide insights into comprehending the internal mechanisms of firms' decision-making in the face of uncertainty.

传统文献将企业遇到的不确定性视为一个整体，忽视了现实世界中普遍存在的不确定性的内在异质性。为了解决这一关键问题，本研究采用自然语言处理方法，将不确定性分解为三个不同的层次：企业层次、行业层次和宏观层次的不确定性。然后，我们从成本管理的角度研究了异质性不确定性对企业决策的影响。我们的研究结果表明，虽然不确定性作为一个整体会增加成本粘性，但这种影响主要源于企业层面的不确定性，而非行业层面和宏观层面的不确定性。这些研究结果表明，企业只有在感知到企业层面的不确定性时才会对不确定性做出反应。横截面测试表明，当企业面临较高的调整成本、较低的融资约束和较小的竞争压力时，不确定性对成本粘性的影响比其他情况更明显。此外，不确定性会降低企业的成本弹性，限制其生产灵活性。总之，我们的研究结果为理解企业面对不确定性时的内部决策机制提供了启示。

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引用次数: 0

The imprint effect of initial institutional environments and bank financing in family businesses 家族企业初始制度环境和银行融资的印记效应

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101213

Chen Cheng, Ke Qiu, Yufan Yang

The initial imprint embedded in family business origin provides us with favorable support for identifying how past institutional environments and then current governance characteristics influence financing. This study investigates the influence of family business origin on loan borrowing, and finds that restructured family firms (RFFs), which are formed through the restructuring of collective-ownership enterprises, are likely to obtain more loans compared to entrepreneurial counterparts (EFFs). The effect varies with local marketization, family control rights, and intergenerational succession. Our findings suggest that restructured family firms have a sounder modern enterprise system, less information asymmetry, and consequently pose less credit risk, which allows them to access loans more easily. In addition, institutional differences stemming from the origin of the firms affect the composition and cost of bank financing. RFFs outperform EFFs in terms of the size of non-local bank loans and the cost of loans. Overall, this study shows that the institutional environment of family firms at the founding stage has a long-term impact on future financing.

家族企业起源所蕴含的初始印记为我们识别过去的制度环境以及当前的治理特征如何影响融资提供了有利支持。本研究调查了家族企业起源对贷款借贷的影响，发现通过重组集体所有制企业而形成的重组家族企业（RFFs）与创业型家族企业（EFFs）相比，有可能获得更多贷款。这种影响因当地市场化程度、家族控制权和代际继承而异。我们的研究结果表明，重组后的家族企业拥有更健全的现代企业制度，信息不对称程度更低，因此信贷风险更小，更容易获得贷款。此外，源于企业起源的制度差异也会影响银行融资的构成和成本。就非本地银行贷款规模和贷款成本而言，农村家庭企业优于外来家庭企业。总之，本研究表明，家族企业在创立阶段的制度环境对未来融资具有长期影响。

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引用次数: 0

Fintech competencies in emerging markets: Cognitive hybrid decision-making approach 新兴市场的金融科技能力：认知混合决策方法

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101211

Dadan Rahadian , Anisah Firli , Serhat Yüksel , Hasan Dinçer

The purpose of this study is to make a priority analysis for the factors affecting fintech competency for emerging markets. A novel 3-stage decision-making model has been established to reach this objective. First, missing evaluations are completed by using recommender systems. The next stage includes the weight calculation of the criteria via quantum spherical fuzzy cognitive maps. The final stage gives information about the ranking of BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) for the fintech competency performance. It is defined that technological infrastructure plays the most crucial role in this regard.

本研究旨在对影响新兴市场金融科技竞争力的因素进行优先分析。为实现这一目标，我们建立了一个新颖的三阶段决策模型。首先，利用推荐系统完成缺失评估。下一阶段包括通过量子球形模糊认知图计算标准的权重。最后一个阶段提供金砖四国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国）在金融科技能力表现方面的排名信息。根据定义，技术基础设施在这方面发挥着最关键的作用。

引用次数: 0

Evaluation of the space-time effects of Covid-19 on household loans and savings in Romania - A spatial panel data approach at county level 评估 Covid-19 对罗马尼亚家庭贷款和储蓄的时空影响--县级空间面板数据方法

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101209

Ștefana Belbe , Darie Moldovan , Alin Marius Andrieș , Philipp Otto , Codruța Mare

This article examines the effects of the Covid-19 crisis on the banking sector of Romania using a spatial panel dataset of 21 months, from April 2020 to December 2021, among 41 counties. The empirical setup exploits the spatial and time-series variations of the banking sector during the pandemic via means of exploratory data analysis, simple linear models for each month with spatial diagnosis, and spatial panel data models with fixed effects. County-level differences and particular disturbances in the trend of banking services are highlighted against the turning points of the pandemic. We show that increasing Covid-19 infections result in higher loans and savings per capita, with significant spatial interactions given by the neighboring counties.

本文利用 2020 年 4 月至 2021 年 12 月期间 41 个县中 21 个月的空间面板数据集，研究了 Covid-19 危机对罗马尼亚银行业的影响。实证设置通过探索性数据分析、带有空间诊断的各月简单线性模型和带有固定效应的空间面板数据模型，利用了大流行病期间银行业的空间和时间序列变化。根据大流行的转折点，突出了银行服务趋势中的县级差异和特殊干扰。我们的研究表明，Covid-19 感染率的增加导致人均贷款和储蓄的增加，而邻近县域的空间交互作用非常明显。

引用次数: 0

How does Russia's economy affect the region? Transmission channels and policy options 俄罗斯经济如何影响本地区？传播渠道和政策选择

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2024-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101205

Shant Arzoumanian

This paper studies how output fluctuations in Russia are transmitted internationally. Using dynamic panel models, the paper finds that Russia's output fluctuations are an important driver of output fluctuations of countries in the region, especially for oil importers, and are transmitted increasingly via trade and market confidence channels. The magnitude of cross-border spillovers is larger for countries with relatively high bilateral trade concentration, low export diversification, and weak external buffers. The paper also finds evidence that stronger public institutional quality- especially in the fiscal area- may help insulate countries from volatility in the Russian sovereign debt market.

本文研究了俄罗斯的产出波动如何在国际上传播。通过使用动态面板模型，本文发现俄罗斯的产出波动是该地区国家（尤其是石油进口国）产出波动的重要驱动因素，并且越来越多地通过贸易和市场信心渠道进行传播。对于双边贸易集中度相对较高、出口多样化程度较低、外部缓冲能力较弱的国家来说，跨境溢出效应的幅度更大。本文还发现，有证据表明，较强的公共机构质量--尤其是在财政领域--可能有助于使各国免受俄罗斯主权债务市场波动的影响。

引用次数: 0

Local official turnover and bank risk-taking: Evidence from China 地方官员更替与银行风险承担：来自中国的证据

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101208

Siyu Zhang , Rongli Yuan , Yukun Li , Li Chen , Danglun Luo

This study investigates the impact of turnover among local government officials on the risk-taking of local commercial banks in China. Our findings reveal a positive relationship between official turnover and risk-taking in banks. The observed effect is mainly due to a deterioration in credit allocation and heightened competition among banks. Heterogeneous analysis indicates that the impact is more significant in non-election years, in years of enhanced anti-corruption efforts, in regions with poor credit environments, and among smaller banks or banks without political connections. Additionally, compared to normal and local turnover, the positive impact of local official turnover on banks' risk-taking is more pronounced for abnormal and non-local turnovers. These insights deepen our understanding of the economic consequences of official turnover on commercial banks and offer valuable perspectives for banks' risk management strategies.

本研究探讨了地方政府官员更替对中国地方商业银行风险承担的影响。研究结果表明，官员流动与银行风险承担之间存在正相关关系。观察到的影响主要是由于信贷分配的恶化和银行间竞争的加剧。异质性分析表明，这种影响在非选举年、反腐力度加大的年份、信贷环境较差的地区以及小型银行或没有政治关系的银行中更为显著。此外，与正常更替和地方更替相比，地方官员更替对银行风险承担的积极影响在非正常更替和非地方更替中更为明显。这些见解加深了我们对官员更替给商业银行带来的经济后果的理解，并为银行的风险管理策略提供了有价值的视角。

引用次数: 0

Impact of asymmetry on exchange rate determination: The role of fundamentals 不对称对汇率决定的影响：基本面的作用

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101206

Levent Korap

This study tries to take a new look at the exchange rate determination model by employing recent developments in time series estimation methodologies. For this purpose, the validity of the sticky price monetary exchange rate model has been searched for the Turkish lira / US dollar case. Estimation results considering both linear and non–linear modeling approaches highly support the theoretical foundations and reveal explicitly the asymmetric nature of the model. The paper infers that since the nominal exchange rate seems to be determined through the economic fundamentals, it should not be used as a policy tool with a long–term perspective.

本研究试图利用时间序列估算方法的最新发展，重新审视汇率决定模型。为此，我们针对土耳其里拉/美元的情况，研究了粘性价格货币汇率模型的有效性。考虑到线性和非线性建模方法的估计结果高度支持理论基础，并明确揭示了模型的非对称性质。本文推断，由于名义汇率似乎是由经济基本面决定的，因此不应将其用作具有长期视角的政策工具。

引用次数: 0

How do stock markets in emerging economies respond to World Bank loan approvals? 新兴经济体的股票市场如何应对世界银行的贷款审批？

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101207

Erasmus Kersting, Christopher Kilby

This paper examines the impact of World Bank loan approvals on equity markets in borrowing countries. We exploit a rich dataset with World Bank loan commitments and daily stock market returns for 47 emerging markets, allowing us to study short run market reactions to news about World Bank programs. These programs fall into three categories: investment projects, structural adjustment loans that tie future macroeconomic reforms to future loan disbursements (prior to FY2006), and development policy loans that reward completed macroeconomic reforms with current loan disbursements (since FY2006). Event study analysis shows positive abnormal stock market returns on the trading day following investment project loan announcements. The effect depends on loan size as well as market characteristics. Structural adjustment loan announcements are followed by negative abnormal returns; development policy loan announcements, in contrast, are considered good news. This suggests that expected macroeconomic implications of policy change in response to loan conditions drive market reactions, and that changes in the conditionality and disbursement structure of World Bank policy lending were successful in improving market reactions to World Bank programs.

本文研究了世界银行贷款审批对借款国股票市场的影响。我们利用世界银行贷款承诺和 47 个新兴市场每日股市回报的丰富数据集，研究了市场对世界银行项目消息的短期反应。这些项目分为三类：投资项目、将未来宏观经济改革与未来贷款支付挂钩的结构调整贷款（2006 财年之前），以及以当前贷款支付奖励已完成宏观经济改革的发展政策贷款（2006 财年之后）。事件研究分析表明，在投资项目贷款公布后的交易日，股票市场会出现正的异常回报。这种效应取决于贷款规模和市场特征。结构调整贷款公布后，股票市场会出现负的异常回报；相反，发展政策贷款公布后，股票市场会被视为利好消息。这表明，根据贷款条件改变政策的预期宏观经济影响推动了市场反应，世界银行政策性贷款条件和支付结构的变化成功地改善了市场对世界银行项目的反应。

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