Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-07-31DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101343
Mingye Wei , Min Zhang , Lu Wei , Meiqi Chen
This paper develops IPOhelper based on statistical (financial, technological innovation indicators) and semantic cues (textual indicators) in registration statements, which is a novel predictive system for initial public offering (IPO) prediction. Based on 692 registration statements of technological innovation companies from 2019 to 2023, we found that the IPOhelper performs exceptionally well in predicting IPO outcomes. Compared with statistical cues, the predictive abilities of semantic features are particularly prominent. In particular, the semantic feature of “Technovation”, which reflects the adequacy of innovation-related information disclosure, is the most important feature for IPO prediction.
{"title":"IPOhelper: Mining features in registration statements for listing prediction of technological innovation companies","authors":"Mingye Wei , Min Zhang , Lu Wei , Meiqi Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101343","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101343","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops IPOhelper based on statistical (financial, technological innovation indicators) and semantic cues (textual indicators) in registration statements, which is a novel predictive system for initial public offering (IPO) prediction. Based on 692 registration statements of technological innovation companies from 2019 to 2023, we found that the IPOhelper performs exceptionally well in predicting IPO outcomes. Compared with statistical cues, the predictive abilities of semantic features are particularly prominent. In particular, the semantic feature of “Technovation”, which reflects the adequacy of innovation-related information disclosure, is the most important feature for IPO prediction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101343"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-06-18DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101311
Chuhong Wang , Xingfei Liu , Massimiliano Tani , Yan Zhao
We examine how reducing ‘background risk’ – the unobserved uncertainty in investment settings – affects household portfolios when individuals unexpectedly gain a comprehensive safety net encompassing health insurance, pension, and other benefits. Leveraging a natural experiment from China's property rights reform and RUMiC data, we find that the reform increases household savings rates and investments in risky assets, indicating that lower background risk enables households to allocate more resources to higher-return, more productive investments. Our results underscore institutional safety nets as effective policy tools to promote risk-taking and capital accumulation in emerging economies.
{"title":"Safety nets and investment choices","authors":"Chuhong Wang , Xingfei Liu , Massimiliano Tani , Yan Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101311","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101311","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine how reducing ‘background risk’ – the unobserved uncertainty in investment settings – affects household portfolios when individuals unexpectedly gain a comprehensive safety net encompassing health insurance, pension, and other benefits. Leveraging a natural experiment from China's property rights reform and RUMiC data, we find that the reform increases household savings rates and investments in risky assets, indicating that lower background risk enables households to allocate more resources to higher-return, more productive investments. Our results underscore institutional safety nets as effective policy tools to promote risk-taking and capital accumulation in emerging economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101311"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144510658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-06-30DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101335
Weiping Li , Hanfang Zhang , Jingjing Xia
Although the impact of retail investor attention on stock market dynamics has been widely studied, its influence on firm-level strategic decisions, such as mergers and acquisitions (M&As), remains largely unexplored. This study investigates the relationship between retail attention and M&A activity using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2011 to 2022. We find that heightened retail attention can lead to CEO overconfidence due to the self-attribution bias, which in turn results in increased M&A activity. However, these attention-driven acquisitions often prove to be value-destroying, consistent with evidence in prior research that overconfident CEOs tend to make imprudent investment decisions. Furthermore, the positive association between retail attention and M&A is more pronounced in firms facing higher uncertainty but is attenuated in firms subject to stronger external monitoring. These findings underscore the substantial, yet often overlooked, impact of retail investors on corporate strategic decision-making.
{"title":"The perils of popularity: Retail investor attention and misguided M&As","authors":"Weiping Li , Hanfang Zhang , Jingjing Xia","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101335","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101335","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although the impact of retail investor attention on stock market dynamics has been widely studied, its influence on firm-level strategic decisions, such as mergers and acquisitions (M&As), remains largely unexplored. This study investigates the relationship between retail attention and M&A activity using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2011 to 2022. We find that heightened retail attention can lead to CEO overconfidence due to the self-attribution bias, which in turn results in increased M&A activity. However, these attention-driven acquisitions often prove to be value-destroying, consistent with evidence in prior research that overconfident CEOs tend to make imprudent investment decisions. Furthermore, the positive association between retail attention and M&A is more pronounced in firms facing higher uncertainty but is attenuated in firms subject to stronger external monitoring. These findings underscore the substantial, yet often overlooked, impact of retail investors on corporate strategic decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101335"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-06-13DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101328
Chunkai Zhao , Runtao Wang , Boou Chen , Jingrong Li
This study examines the effect of childhood left-behind experience (CLBE) on financial market participation in China. We find that the CLBE significantly reduces the likelihood of financial market participation, which is supported by several robustness checks. Mechanism tests show that this negative impact can be explained by human capital loss, earnings penalty effects, and financial accessibility. Further exploration indicates that the greater the CLBE intensity, the more pronounced the negative impact. Worse, the negative effect of CLBE is not eliminated by the subsequent return of parents, and the mitigation effects of digital development are limited.
{"title":"Hidden costs of separation: Exploring the effect of left-behind experiences on financial market participation in China","authors":"Chunkai Zhao , Runtao Wang , Boou Chen , Jingrong Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101328","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101328","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the effect of childhood left-behind experience (CLBE) on financial market participation in China. We find that the CLBE significantly reduces the likelihood of financial market participation, which is supported by several robustness checks. Mechanism tests show that this negative impact can be explained by human capital loss, earnings penalty effects, and financial accessibility. Further exploration indicates that the greater the CLBE intensity, the more pronounced the negative impact. Worse, the negative effect of CLBE is not eliminated by the subsequent return of parents, and the mitigation effects of digital development are limited.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101328"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-06-13DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101329
Tam Tran , Craig Wilson , Fan Yang
Using Vietnamese data, we study how net-buyer executives (previously thought to identify overconfidence) affect corporate investment. We find that both net-buyer CEOs and net-buyer board chairs tend to increase corporate investment, which is mitigated by both domestic and state institutional ownership, and exacerbated by foreign institutional ownership. We find that net-buyer CEOs subsequently increase firm value, so they seem to have justified confidence in their ability to generate value, whereas net-buyer board chairs subsequently decrease firm value, displaying genuine overconfidence. As this distinction does not hold for dual board chair-CEOs, it could arise from information asymmetry between CEOs and chairs.
{"title":"Executive overconfidence, corporate investment, and institutional ownership: Evidence from Vietnam","authors":"Tam Tran , Craig Wilson , Fan Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101329","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101329","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using Vietnamese data, we study how net-buyer executives (previously thought to identify overconfidence) affect corporate investment. We find that both net-buyer CEOs and net-buyer board chairs tend to increase corporate investment, which is mitigated by both domestic and state institutional ownership, and exacerbated by foreign institutional ownership. We find that net-buyer CEOs subsequently increase firm value, so they seem to have justified confidence in their ability to generate value, whereas net-buyer board chairs subsequently decrease firm value, displaying genuine overconfidence. As this distinction does not hold for dual board chair-CEOs, it could arise from information asymmetry between CEOs and chairs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101329"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-06-16DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101327
Luis Gonzalo Llosa , Fernando J. Pérez-Forero , Vicente Tuesta
We study the connection between financial conditions and economic uncertainty across five major Latin American countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. Using a Bayesian Threshold Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model with stochastic volatility, our findings reveal that sudden jumps in uncertainty tighten financial conditions, increasing the likelihood of financial distress when the country credit spread exceeds a threshold value. Additionally, we find that uncertainty shocks are recessionary, leading to lower domestic short-term interest rates and a depreciation of domestic currencies against the US dollar. Notably, these effects are more pronounced and persistent during periods of financial distress. Another important finding is the heterogeneity in countries' responses to uncertainty, which reflects significant cross-country differences in economic fundamentals and policy frameworks. Finally, our results suggest that, while uncertainty contributes modestly to overall business cycle volatility, it has a substantial impact on financial variables—a dynamic that becomes significantly amplified during episodes of financial distress.
{"title":"Uncertainty shocks and financial conditions in Latin-American countries","authors":"Luis Gonzalo Llosa , Fernando J. Pérez-Forero , Vicente Tuesta","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101327","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101327","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the connection between financial conditions and economic uncertainty across five major Latin American countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. Using a Bayesian Threshold Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model with stochastic volatility, our findings reveal that sudden jumps in uncertainty tighten financial conditions, increasing the likelihood of financial distress when the country credit spread exceeds a threshold value. Additionally, we find that uncertainty shocks are recessionary, leading to lower domestic short-term interest rates and a depreciation of domestic currencies against the US dollar. Notably, these effects are more pronounced and persistent during periods of financial distress. Another important finding is the heterogeneity in countries' responses to uncertainty, which reflects significant cross-country differences in economic fundamentals and policy frameworks. Finally, our results suggest that, while uncertainty contributes modestly to overall business cycle volatility, it has a substantial impact on financial variables—a dynamic that becomes significantly amplified during episodes of financial distress.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101327"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144517093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-07-12DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101339
Sun-ae Cho , Sangil Kim , Won-Wook Choi
This study examines the heterogeneity among controlling shareholders on corporate tax avoidance. Findings reveal that controlling shareholders are divided on tax avoidance behavior, which leads to less tax avoidance; however, they are unified in earnings management and R&D expenditure. Additional analysis shows that their divided interests are influenced by several factors, such as shareholder type, related-party transactions, family business status, Chaebol affiliation, and firm maturity. This study underscores that controlling shareholders, once considered a single entity, encompass individuals who counterbalance each other's interests; thus, reassessing their corporate governance role is necessary.
{"title":"Unified or divided? Conflicting interests of controlling shareholders in corporate tax avoidance","authors":"Sun-ae Cho , Sangil Kim , Won-Wook Choi","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101339","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101339","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the heterogeneity among controlling shareholders on corporate tax avoidance. Findings reveal that controlling shareholders are divided on tax avoidance behavior, which leads to less tax avoidance; however, they are unified in earnings management and R&D expenditure. Additional analysis shows that their divided interests are influenced by several factors, such as shareholder type, related-party transactions, family business status, Chaebol affiliation, and firm maturity. This study underscores that controlling shareholders, once considered a single entity, encompass individuals who counterbalance each other's interests; thus, reassessing their corporate governance role is necessary.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101339"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144679629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-01Epub Date: 2025-04-29DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101302
Vardan Baghdasaryan , Roy Mersland , R. Øystein Strøm
Is it, on average, harmful for micro-entrepreneurs to borrow from several banks? In this study we find that having loans from several banks improves entrepreneurs' performance, that is, their current revenue. We ensure causal identification by applying instrumental variable estimator to control for the endogeneity as well as test for possible attrition induced bias. Importantly, we uncover certain borrowing patterns of these multiple loans that are associated with greater gross income – specific temporal order of taking out loans and their size relative to incomes. We cannot claim whether this pattern is initiated by the borrower or the banks. The study uses proprietary rich customer data from an Ecuadorian bank matched with credit registry records. Although we acknowledge the many risks involved, our findings suggest a more positive role for multibanking, which has primarily been considered a driver of over-indebtedness in the microfinance literature.
{"title":"Multibanking in microfinance yields positive performance: Evidence from Ecuadorian entrepreneurs","authors":"Vardan Baghdasaryan , Roy Mersland , R. Øystein Strøm","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101302","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101302","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Is it, on average, harmful for micro-entrepreneurs to borrow from several banks? In this study we find that having loans from several banks improves entrepreneurs' performance, that is, their current revenue. We ensure causal identification by applying instrumental variable estimator to control for the endogeneity as well as test for possible attrition induced bias. Importantly, we uncover certain borrowing patterns of these multiple loans that are associated with greater gross income – specific temporal order of taking out loans and their size relative to incomes. We cannot claim whether this pattern is initiated by the borrower or the banks. The study uses proprietary rich customer data from an Ecuadorian bank matched with credit registry records. Although we acknowledge the many risks involved, our findings suggest a more positive role for multibanking, which has primarily been considered a driver of over-indebtedness in the microfinance literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101302"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143918341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-01Epub Date: 2025-05-27DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101312
Jungho Baek
Oil prices are endogenously determined by oil demand and supply shocks, resulting in various impacts on exchange rates across different periods. The contribution of this article is to assess the effects of oil supply, aggregate demand, and oil-specific demand shocks on Indonesia's exchange rate. To accurately assess these impacts while considering Indonesia's dual roles in the oil market, we divide the analysis period into two distinct periods: the net oil exporting phase from January 1994 to December 2003 and the net oil importing phase from January 2004 to February 2023. Our findings reveal that during the net oil exporting phase, the impact of three oil shocks on Indonesia's currency is negligible in the short and long term. Conversely, during the net oil importing phase, our research demonstrates that oil-specific demand shocks significantly influence Indonesia's short- and long-term currency. In contrast, oil supply shocks primarily affect the short-term. Aggregate demand shocks, however, have minimal influence on the currency in either timeframe. Furthermore, our research provides compelling evidence that supports the presence of long-term asymmetry in all three shocks on Indonesia's currency. However, we do not identify any evidence of short-term asymmetry effects for any of the three oil shocks.
{"title":"Does the source of oil shocks matter to exchange rate dynamics? Insights from Indonesia's dual role as an oil exporter and importer","authors":"Jungho Baek","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101312","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101312","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Oil prices are endogenously determined by oil demand and supply shocks, resulting in various impacts on exchange rates across different periods. The contribution of this article is to assess the effects of oil supply, aggregate demand, and oil-specific demand shocks on Indonesia's exchange rate. To accurately assess these impacts while considering Indonesia's dual roles in the oil market, we divide the analysis period into two distinct periods: the net oil exporting phase from January 1994 to December 2003 and the net oil importing phase from January 2004 to February 2023. Our findings reveal that during the net oil exporting phase, the impact of three oil shocks on Indonesia's currency is negligible in the short and long term. Conversely, during the net oil importing phase, our research demonstrates that oil-specific demand shocks significantly influence Indonesia's short- and long-term currency. In contrast, oil supply shocks primarily affect the short-term. Aggregate demand shocks, however, have minimal influence on the currency in either timeframe. Furthermore, our research provides compelling evidence that supports the presence of long-term asymmetry in all three shocks on Indonesia's currency. However, we do not identify any evidence of short-term asymmetry effects for any of the three oil shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101312"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144178654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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