Emerging Markets Review最新文献

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Cutting corners, cutting dividends: Evidence from reverse mergers in China 偷工减料，削减红利：来自中国反向并购的证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101403

He Gao , Junwei Lu , Laifeng Yang , Zijian Cheng , Zhangxin (Frank) Liu

We examine how listing strategies shape dividend policies in China. Firms listed via reverse mergers (RMs) exhibit significantly lower probability and levels of cash dividend payments than those listed through initial public offerings (IPOs). Mechanism tests attribute this low-dividend tendency of RM firms to higher financing constraints, more severe agency problems, stronger performance pressure, and weaker market attention. Heterogeneity analysis shows that state ownership, intense industry competition, robust legal environments, and the participation of mature investors can mitigate these effects. Further analysis reveals that RM firms are also less likely to use stock dividends or share repurchases, though the gap with IPO firms narrows over time. Economic consequence tests indicate that dividend payouts by newly listed firms increase the cost of equity capital, with the negative signalling effect particularly pronounced for RM firms. Our findings offer fresh insights into the “dividend puzzle” in emerging markets undergoing institutional transition.

我们研究了上市策略如何影响中国的股息政策。通过反向并购（RMs）上市的公司比通过首次公开募股（ipo）上市的公司表现出更低的现金股息支付概率和水平。机制检验将RM企业低分红倾向的原因归结为融资约束条件越强、代理问题越严重、业绩压力越大、市场关注度越弱。异质性分析表明，国有制、激烈的行业竞争、健全的法律环境和成熟投资者的参与可以缓解这些影响。进一步的分析表明，RM公司也不太可能使用股票分红或股票回购，尽管与IPO公司的差距随着时间的推移而缩小。经济后果检验表明，新上市公司的股利支付增加了股权资本成本，其中RM公司的负面信号效应尤为明显。我们的研究结果为正在经历制度转型的新兴市场的“股息之谜”提供了新的见解。

引用次数: 0

Judicial Independence and corporate labor investment: Evidence from China 司法独立与企业劳动力投资：来自中国的证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101404

Nanyan Dong, Jiang Zhang, Xiangbing Xu, Peiyu Ou

Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we find that the establishment of circuit tribunals significantly increases corporate labor investment by improving the financing environment and promoting innovation. The effect is more pronounced in provinces with lower levels of marketization and weaker legal institutions, as well as in labor-intensive industries, state-owned enterprises, and financially constrained non-state enterprises. Additionally, circuit tribunals also enhance firm valuation, with no evidence of adverse effects on labor share or labor investment efficiency. Our study highlights the institutional role of judicial independence in supporting corporate hiring, contributing to the literature on judicial reform and labor investment in emerging markets.

采用交错差中差方法，我们发现巡回法庭的设立通过改善融资环境和促进创新显著增加了企业的劳动力投入。这种影响在市场化程度较低、法律制度较弱的省份、劳动密集型产业、国有企业和资金受限的非国有企业中更为明显。此外，巡回法庭也提高了公司估值，没有证据表明对劳动份额或劳动投资效率有不利影响。我们的研究强调了司法独立在支持企业招聘方面的制度作用，为新兴市场司法改革和劳动力投资的文献做出了贡献。

引用次数: 0

Treasury bond pricing via no arbitrage arguments and machine learning: Evidence from China 通过无套利论证和机器学习进行国债定价：来自中国的证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101402

Liangliang Zhang , Ruyan Tian , Weiping Zhang , Qing Yang , Tingting Ye

This paper proposes a general framework that combines theoretical and empirical asset pricing research and applies the framework to formulate a novel bond return (price or yield curve) prediction methodology, integrating the classical and structural asset pricing theory with recent machine learning factor asset pricing models. The method is mathematically and theoretically rigorous, arbitrage-free, if no arbitrage pricing model is applied, and in the meantime enjoys the flexibility offered by the empirical asset pricing framework, i.e., a potentially rich factor structure, accurate function approximations and the ability to capture both cross-sectional and time-series asset price variation via machine learning regression. Real market backtesting studies show that our predictions are accurate, in the sense that the formulated equally weighted treasury bond portfolios in China exchange-based markets bear significant positive returns and outperforms major methods in the literature.

本文提出了一个结合理论和实证资产定价研究的总体框架，并应用该框架制定了一种新的债券收益（价格或收益率曲线）预测方法，将经典和结构性资产定价理论与最近的机器学习因素资产定价模型相结合。该方法在数学上和理论上都是严格的，如果不应用套利定价模型，则无套利，同时享有经验资产定价框架提供的灵活性，即潜在丰富的因素结构，准确的函数近似以及通过机器学习回归捕获横断面和时间序列资产价格变化的能力。真实市场回测研究表明，我们的预测是准确的，在某种意义上，在中国交易所市场中制定的等加权国债投资组合具有显著的正回报，并且优于文献中的主要方法。

引用次数: 0

Survival amidst chaos: The impact of catastrophic natural disasters on SME corruption practices 混乱中的生存：灾难性自然灾害对中小企业腐败行为的影响

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101401

Kieu Trang Vu , Maria H. Kim , Sandy Suardi

Are firms likely to engage in corruption in times of catastrophic natural disasters? This paper provides evidence that a natural disaster is associated with a 38.8% increase in affected firms' informal payments. An increase in informal payments helps SMEs in affected provinces offset the reduction in government assistance following natural disasters. The relationship between natural catastrophes and corruption becomes less pronounced in firms with political connections, high tax avoidance, family control and superior local governance quality. This research carries significant implications for governments and policymakers aiming to mitigate the surge in firms' corruption practices following catastrophic natural disasters.

在灾难性的自然灾害发生时，企业可能会腐败吗？本文提供的证据表明，自然灾害与受影响企业的非正式支付增加38.8%有关。非正式支付的增加有助于受影响省份的中小企业抵消自然灾害后政府援助的减少。自然灾害和腐败之间的关系在有政治关系、高避税、家族控制和地方治理质量优越的公司中变得不那么明显。这项研究对旨在缓解灾难性自然灾害后企业腐败行为激增的政府和政策制定者具有重要意义。

引用次数: 0

Foreign exchange interventions and foreign shocks 外汇干预与外国冲击

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101400

E. Bucacos , J. García-Cicco , M. Mello

We study the effects of exchange-rate interventions on relevant macroeconomic variables such as the exchange rate, inflation, activity, and interest rates. Instead of attempting to identify exogenous variations in the intervention policy (a frequent strategy in the related literature that raises many endogeneity concerns), we investigate the effect of interventions in dampening the impact of external shocks that are relevant determinants of exchange rate movements. To this end, we propose a novel approach, constrained impulse response functions, which allows the construction of counterfactual scenarios that are locally valid (i.e. marginal effects around average responses). We focus on the case of Uruguay, for which we exploit detailed data on the Central Bank’s operations in the exchange-rate market, leading to a clean measure of interventions that is not contaminated by other factors affecting the foreign reserves position (like valuation effects, a common problem in related studies). We find that interventions can help dampen exchange rate effects, although with a delay, and may have a non-trivial impact on inflation as well, but generally the macroeconomic consequences seems limited. Crucially, these effects depend on the type and sign of the external shock being considered.

我们研究了汇率干预对相关宏观经济变量的影响，如汇率、通货膨胀、经济活动和利率。我们没有试图确定干预政策的外生变化（相关文献中经常提出的一种策略，引起了许多内生性问题），而是研究干预在抑制外部冲击影响方面的效果，这些冲击是汇率变动的相关决定因素。为此，我们提出了一种新的方法，约束脉冲响应函数，它允许构建局部有效的反事实情景（即平均响应周围的边际效应）。我们将重点放在乌拉圭的案例上，我们利用了乌拉圭央行在汇率市场上运作的详细数据，从而得出了一种不受影响外汇储备头寸的其他因素（如估值效应，这是相关研究中的一个常见问题）污染的干预措施。我们发现，干预措施可以帮助抑制汇率效应，尽管有延迟，也可能对通货膨胀产生不小的影响，但总体而言，宏观经济后果似乎有限。至关重要的是，这些影响取决于所考虑的外部冲击的类型和迹象。

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引用次数: 0

Cloning success or falling into a trap: The role of a founder CEO in the corporate comeback again 克隆成功还是落入陷阱：创始人CEO在企业复兴中的角色

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101399

Chin-Jung Luan , Chengli Tien

We aim to examine the relationships among founder CEOs, turnaround strategies, prior turnaround success, and subsequent turnaround performance. Specifically, we investigate whether the presence of a founder CEO influences a firm's turnaround strategies and performance and whether prior successful turnaround experience can be replicated in subsequent recovery efforts. A sample of 117 publicly listed firms across various industries in Taiwan was collected, and data were obtained from the Taiwan Economic Journal to test the proposed hypotheses. The findings suggest that founder CEOs are less inclined to pursue market-based turnaround strategies, which may be less effective in facilitating successful corporate recovery during subsequent turnaround efforts. Additionally, a firm's prior turnaround success may be positively related to its subsequent turnaround performance under certain conditions. In other words, although prior success can facilitate future performance, overreliance on it may create potential drawbacks. Furthermore, prior turnaround experience appears to moderate the relationship between market-based turnaround strategies and subsequent turnaround performance under specific contextual conditions.

我们的目的是研究创始人ceo、转型战略、先前的转型成功和随后的转型绩效之间的关系。具体而言，我们调查了创始人CEO的存在是否会影响公司的转型战略和绩效，以及之前成功的转型经验是否可以在随后的复苏努力中复制。本研究以台湾117家不同行业的上市公司为样本，并以《台湾经济日报》的数据来验证上述假设。研究结果表明，创始人ceo不太倾向于追求以市场为基础的转型战略，这可能在随后的转型努力中促进公司成功复苏的效果较差。此外，在某些条件下，企业先前的周转成功可能与其随后的周转绩效呈正相关。换句话说，尽管先前的成功可以促进未来的表现，但过度依赖它可能会产生潜在的缺点。此外，在特定情境条件下，先前的周转经验似乎会调节基于市场的周转策略与随后的周转绩效之间的关系。

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引用次数: 0

Large state-owned shareholders and social insurance contributions in private firms: Evidence from China 国有大股东与民营企业社保缴费：来自中国的证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101398

Ying Wu

In the context of transitioning toward market-oriented economies, does state-owned capital continue to safeguard the public interest? This paper answers this question by examining how large state-owned shareholders influence social insurance contributions in private firms. Using a comprehensive sample of Chinese listed firms from 2012 to 2022, this paper finds that the presence of large state-owned shareholders significantly increases social insurance contributions in private firms. This finding remains valid after a battery of robustness tests. Mechanism tests show that large state-owned shareholders increase social insurance contributions by helping private firms obtain government resources and strengthening oversight of social insurance compliance. However, this paper finds no evidence that foreign investors or unions influence the relationship between large state-owned shareholders and social insurance contributions in private firms. The findings of this paper suggest that state-owned equity prioritizes workers' interests over profit maximization. Given that expanding corporate social insurance coverage is a common challenge in emerging markets, this paper provides valuable policy implications for regulators in similar economic contexts.

在向市场经济转型的背景下，国有资本是否继续维护公共利益？本文通过考察国有大股东对民营企业社保缴费的影响来回答这个问题。利用2012 - 2022年中国上市公司的综合样本，本文发现国有大股东的存在显著增加了民营企业的社会保险缴费。经过一系列稳健性测试后，这一发现仍然有效。机制测试表明，国有大股东通过帮助民营企业获得政府资源和加强对社会保险合规的监督来增加社会保险缴费。然而，本文没有发现外资或工会影响国有大股东与民营企业社会保险缴费关系的证据。本文的研究结果表明，国有股权优先考虑工人的利益，而不是利润最大化。鉴于扩大企业社会保险覆盖面是新兴市场的共同挑战，本文为类似经济背景下的监管机构提供了有价值的政策启示。

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引用次数: 0

Macroprudential policy and bank systemic risk: Does inflation targeting matter? 宏观审慎政策与银行系统性风险：通胀目标制重要吗？

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101397

Farah Mugrabi , Mohamed Belkhir , Sami Ben Naceur , Bertrand Candelon , Woon Gyu Choi

This paper examines whether inflation targeting (IT) enhances the effectiveness of macroprudential policies in reducing banks’ contribution to systemic risk measured by SRISK. Using bank-level data for 47 countries, our regime-dependent panel regressions suggest that tools such as DSTI limits, the CCyB, conservation buffers, and leverage limits are relatively more effective under IT. Loan restrictions appear less effective, while loan-to-value (LTV) caps show impact only in post-GFC samples. Liquidity and reserve requirements reduce SRISK under IT in higher-frequency estimations. Our findings lend credence to the view that IT strengthens the role of macroprudential policy in mitigating financial stability risks.

本文考察了通货膨胀目标制（IT）是否增强了宏观审慎政策在降低银行对SRISK衡量的系统性风险的贡献方面的有效性。利用47个国家的银行层面数据，我们的制度相关面板回归表明，DSTI限制、CCyB、保护缓冲和杠杆限制等工具在IT下相对更有效。贷款限制似乎不太有效，而贷款对价值（LTV）上限仅在全球金融危机后的样本中显示出影响。在更高频率的估计中，流动性和准备金要求降低了IT下的SRISK。我们的研究结果为信息技术增强宏观审慎政策在缓解金融稳定风险方面的作用的观点提供了证据。

引用次数: 0

Institutional ownership and bond pricing: Evidence from China 机构持股与债券定价：来自中国的证据

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101396

Yulin Wang , Xueying Zhang , Thomas Walker , Gerrit Liedtke

This paper examines the impact of institutional ownership on the bond yield spreads of publicly traded Chinese firms. Our research results show the presence of a U-shaped, non-linear relationship between the shareholdings of institutional investors and bond yield spreads. Heterogeneity tests reveal differences in the impact of institutional ownership on yield spreads among different types of institutional investors and for firms in which members of the central government stabilization fund, commonly referred to as “national team” institutions, hold shares. Further tests indicate that corporate governance levels and firm performance serve as channels through which institutional shareholders affect bond yield spreads.

本文考察了机构持股对中国上市公司债券收益率息差的影响。我们的研究结果表明，机构投资者持股与债券收益率息差之间存在u型非线性关系。异质性检验显示，不同类型的机构投资者和中央政府稳定基金成员（通常被称为“国家队”机构）持股的公司之间，机构所有权对收益率息差的影响存在差异。进一步的检验表明，公司治理水平和公司绩效是机构股东影响债券收益率息差的渠道。

引用次数: 0

Media coverage and goodwill impairment 媒体报道和商誉减值

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101395

Hongwen Han , Rui Hu , Jiali Jenna Tang , Qing Fu

This study examines how media coverage influences goodwill impairment reporting in China. We find that higher media scrutiny reduces abnormal goodwill impairment by constraining opportunistic reporting decisions through information, reputation, and regulatory sanction mechanisms. Both policy and market-oriented media coverage contribute to this reduction. Media coverage significantly inhibits firms from avoiding impairment rather than overstating it. Results suggest a substitution effect between media coverage and other corporate governance mechanisms, such as auditors and institutional investors. Our main findings hold after addressing endogeneity issues. Overall, our findings support that media scrutiny plays a monitoring role in curbing opportunistic goodwill impairment reporting.

本研究探讨了媒体报道对中国商誉减值报告的影响。我们发现，更高的媒体审查通过信息、声誉和监管制裁机制约束机会主义报道决策，从而减少了异常商誉减值。政策和面向市场的媒体报道都有助于这种减少。媒体报道极大地抑制了企业避免减值，而不是夸大减值。结果表明，媒体报道与其他公司治理机制（如审计师和机构投资者）之间存在替代效应。我们的主要发现在解决内生性问题后成立。总体而言，我们的研究结果支持媒体审查在遏制机会主义商誉减值报告中发挥监督作用。

引用次数: 0

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