Emerging Markets Review最新文献

This study introduces a novel perspective on financial fraud detection by exploring the utility of managers' abnormal tone. To mitigate bias in indicator selection, we implement a feature selection process involving a comprehensive set of 301 indicators, including financial, non-financial, and textual, and various machine learning algorithms. The dataset contains 6077 pairs of fraudulent and non-fraudulent samples in China. Our findings underscore the significance of abnormal tone in fraud detection, establishing it as a prominent factor in the feature selection process. The accuracy outcomes from eight machine learning models further confirm that incorporating abnormal tone can enhance fraud detection performance.

Using manually collected data, we explore the effects of digital innovation (DI) on firm resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings show that during the pandemic, firms with high levels of DI performed significantly better than others. This effect was more pronounced for firms with high exposure to COVID-19 or geographically distant supply chains. Further, mechanism analysis finds that DI mitigated the negative impact of COVID-19 by reducing internal coordination costs and improving the speed of external supply chain response. Additional analysis shows that the more firms with strong DI capabilities, the faster the economic recovery after the pandemic.

We investigate whether central banks from emerging markets can attract or redirect capital flows, by bringing together the entire empirical literature into the first quan- titative meta-analysis. We dissect policy effects based on the origin of the monetary shock and type of flow. Further, we assess whether policy effects depend on factors that drive investors to either search for yields or fly to safety. Our findings indicate a mean effect size of inflows in the amount of 0.09% of quarterly GDP in response to either a 100-basis point (bp) increase in the domestic policy rate or a 100 bp reduction in the external rate. However, the effect size under a fixed effect specification is much higher (0.2%). Factors that attract inflows include output growth, foreign exchange reserves, and a more flexible exchange rate regime, while factors that deter flows include local and global risks. Finally, we find that banking flows are the most responsive to monetary policy, while foreign direct investments are the least responsive.

This paper constructs a new measure of distribution margins that covers more countries than that in the World Input–Output Database. Based on this measure, we develop a set of stylized facts and examine the effect of distribution margins on exporters' distribution-oriented foreign direct investment decision using customs data and foreign direct investment decision data from China. We find that higher distribution margins in destination countries drive exporters to conduct distribution-oriented foreign direct investment. Compared with specialized export intermediaries, manufacturers have a greater incentive to invest in distribution sectors abroad when faced with higher distribution margins.

This paper examines the effects of privatizing China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on wage distribution and the welfare of the economy. Privatizing profitable SOEs can narrow wage inequality and improve welfare, and it is however accompanied by a business dynamism effect that can widen the skilled-unskilled wage gap. Using China's split share structure reform in 2005 as a quasi-natural experiment, we empirically demonstrate for profitable SOEs a positive relationship between partial privatization and wage gap. Our findings are consistent with the plan to wind down unprofitable SOEs that would not survive without government subsidies.

This study assesses the impact of presidential and parliamentary elections on different aspects of financial intermediation, considering ownership structure as a determining factor. Consistent with the smoothing hypothesis, state-owned banks (SOBs) observed a lending growth rate of 6.67% higher during the presidential election than private sector commercial banks and subsequently experienced a decrease. During the parliamentary election cycle, indications of reciprocal trade between SOBs and peer banks emerge. SOBs step in to address the lending gap created by competing banks' reduced credit offerings, and vice versa, until the electoral uncertainty subsides. Banks implemented a more rigorous policy about their loan practices before the election years. Deposit liabilities of foreign-owned banks grew by 11.49% in the post-parliamentary election year, while SOB witnessed a contraction in deposits in the year following the presidential election. The results have consequences for national savings, investments, and economic growth. The findings align with the level of development a country exhibits, the composition of its banking sector, and its institutional attributes.

We investigate whether fintech development expedites financial inclusion and affects the stability of the financial sector in BRICS economies. We first seek to identify the linkage between Fintech development and financial inclusion in the BRICS economies. We then explore if Fintech poses any threat to financial stability by studying the impact of Fintech on three main factors of financial stability; Country risk, Liquidity, and Price volatility to see any possible threat to financial stability. We apply the robust Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model with Bayesian framework to analyze a monthly dataset ranging from 2015 to 2022. By applying a positive shock to Fintech over financial inclusion and financial stability, we reveal a positive dynamic relationship between fintech development and financial inclusion, with fintech exhibiting a long-term influence on financial inclusion in some BRICS countries than others. However, we found no significant evidence that fintech presents any threat to financial stability; at least not in the short term. We offer several policy implications and future research directions.

We propose a novel firm-level measure of speculative trading (SPT) for the Chinese stock market. Based on prior studies identifying differences of opinion as the dominant driver of speculative trading, we isolate the trading volume driven by differences of opinion from total trading volume as the speculative trading measure. We verify that SPT effectively reflects speculative trading and significantly and negatively predicts future returns. More importantly, SPT contains incremental information relative to the other speculative trading proxies. Using SPT, we further find that speculative trading plays a key role in explaining and driving the anomaly returns in the Chinese market.

This study analyzes the zero-debt decisions of BRICS firms using a bivariate probit model. The leading hypotheses are financial flexibility and financial constraints. On the demand-side, our findings reveal that managerial debt aversion, early lifecycle stage, growth opportunities, solvency, and concentrated ownership contribute to the lack of debt. Similarly, a country's institutional quality correlates with firms' debt-free status. On the supply-side, creditors fund companies with poor financial records in countries with robust markets and economic freedom. Financial flexibility and restrictions leading to zero debt are linked to firm and institutional characteristics in emerging countries.

We investigate the relationship between functional subsidies, selective subsidies, and investment efficiency through meticulous compilation of information on government subsidies, and the implementation of an innovative categorization methodology based on the nature and timing of funds (ex-ante versus ex-post). Our findings suggest that the effects of subsidies exhibit asymmetry by alleviating underinvestment while exacerbating overinvestment, and functional subsidies exert a stronger influence compared to selective subsidies. Financial constraints are found to serve as the major mechanism, and firms with easier access to financing may not effectively utilize subsidies, while those facing severe financial constraints are less prone to misusing them.