Emerging Markets Review最新文献

This paper provides a novel look at capital flow determinants by assessing the role of expectations and media sentiments. Analyzing eight emerging market economies, we assess the effects of macroeconomic expectations and disagreement among professionals and various media-based sentiment indicators. Our results show that survey and sentiment indicators which are available in real time contain useful information about capital flow dynamics which go beyond the effects of conventional push and pull factors for all countries we analyze. News sentiment related to the exchange rate have the strongest effects on capital flows. Finally, we identify substantial heterogeneity across countries.

The study examines how mandatory disclosures impact banks' earnings management in India. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) enforced disclosures fearing underdeclaration of non-performing assets (NPA) and attributable loan loss provision (LLP). In a way, such disclosure requirement was a “name and shame” strategy by the RBI. Our study hypothesizes disclosures to reduce information asymmetry and moral hazard - in a way reflected in the discretionary LLP. The results broadly support our hypothesis that regulatory enforcement through disclosures had the intended effect of hamstringing the banks' ability to manage earnings. Thus, mandatory disclosures positively affect discretionary LLP reduction, consequently minimizing the latitude that banks enjoy.

This study investigates the influence of global financial market conditions on financial risk connectedness and transmission among the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies. Utilizing weekly realized stock market volatilities as a measure of risk and employing a smooth transition threshold vector autoregressive (STVAR) model to analyze risk transmission under varying levels of financial stress, the authors also examine the impact of external macroeconomic conditions on the risk connectedness of MENA economies. The results indicate that the overall connectedness, based on a standard VAR model, is moderate at 48.34%. However, in the low financial stress regime, overall connectedness increases to 52.79%, and in the high financial stress regime, it rises to 72.94%, indicating stronger risk interdependency among MENA countries during times of high stress. In the high financial stress regime, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates are identified as net risk transmitters among MENA countries. The study also reveals that risk transmission across MENA is more pronounced in the regime-dependent model compared to the overall mean-based VAR model.

Using a proprietary dataset collected by the National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China (NBS), we are able to compare earnings reported to the NBS in the pre-IPO (initial public offerings) period with earnings for the same firm and the same year reported in firms' IPO prospectus. While Ball and Shivakumar (2008) find that in the U.K., financials reported at IPOs tend to be more conservative than the original reports, we find the opposite: income reported by Chinese firms in their IPO prospectus tend to be higher than those reported to the NBS. In the year immediately preceding the IPO, the discrepancy is mostly driven by firms inflating earnings in the IPO prospectus to increase issue prices. In earlier years, firms in provinces with weak law enforcement report lower earnings to the NBS to avoid taxes, which also contributes to the discrepancy between the IPO and NBS data. These findings suggest that firms tell different lies to different audiences. The discrepancy between the IPO and NBS earnings is positively correlated with the IPO issue price, indicating that firms are able to increase their IPO proceeds by raising earnings in the IPO prospectus from the original NBS reports. Furthermore, firms with the highest discrepancies experience the most significant declines in return on assets (ROA) and the most negative abnormal returns after the IPOs. Our paper complements the existent literature on earnings quality at IPOs, sheds light on firms' tax avoidance behaviors, and is of practical value to regulators.

In this novel investigation of creditor governance in an emerging market, this paper examines the monitoring by Indian lenders of firms' earnings management and financial reporting quality through the appointment of a bank-affiliated director to the borrower's board. Specifically, we study the effect of having a bank-affiliated director on the board (a “BDB”), prior to the implementation of India's Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC). This setting represents a business environment characterized by underdeveloped financial institutions, a weak legal system, and inefficient bankruptcy resolutions. Unlike the U.S., where BDBs play a limited monitoring role, our evidence suggests bank-affiliated directors played an active role in firm governance and lowered earnings management as well as improving financial reporting quality in India during the period of our study. Specifically, we find lower discretionary accruals among firms with BDBs in cross-sectional, pre-post, performance matched, and propensity score matched analyses – signaling higher reporting quality and less earnings management. This finding holds after controlling for endogeneity and when measures of accounting conservatism or earnings persistence are utilized as additional measures of reporting quality. Further, the dampening effect of BDBs on discretionary accruals is more pronounced for companies subject to greater information asymmetry and those prone to agency problems. In addition, firms with BDBs on the board have less volatile ROAs and lower idiosyncratic risk, consistent with BDBs encouraging borrowers to pursue less risky investments to safeguard creditors' interests. As the first examination of the monitoring influence of BDBs on financial reporting quality – and earnings management in particular – in an emerging market, our results provide unique insights for policymakers and creditors seeking to enhance governance and reporting quality of firms in evolving business environments.

This study explores the conagion effect of financial violations within Chinese business groups from 2012 to 2021. Findings reveal that violations lead to stock price declines in member companies, with contagion primarily driven by irrational investor sentiment (“burial objects”) over the short term. The financial and governance characteristics of infected companies deteriorate (“birds of a feather”), but do not impact their long-term stock returns. Mitigating investor irrationality in infected companies helps curb contagion. This research contributes to business group governance and risk contagion theories, revealing a unique irrational contagion channel of financial violations within business groups in emerging markets.

This study introduces a novel perspective on financial fraud detection by exploring the utility of managers' abnormal tone. To mitigate bias in indicator selection, we implement a feature selection process involving a comprehensive set of 301 indicators, including financial, non-financial, and textual, and various machine learning algorithms. The dataset contains 6077 pairs of fraudulent and non-fraudulent samples in China. Our findings underscore the significance of abnormal tone in fraud detection, establishing it as a prominent factor in the feature selection process. The accuracy outcomes from eight machine learning models further confirm that incorporating abnormal tone can enhance fraud detection performance.

Using manually collected data, we explore the effects of digital innovation (DI) on firm resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings show that during the pandemic, firms with high levels of DI performed significantly better than others. This effect was more pronounced for firms with high exposure to COVID-19 or geographically distant supply chains. Further, mechanism analysis finds that DI mitigated the negative impact of COVID-19 by reducing internal coordination costs and improving the speed of external supply chain response. Additional analysis shows that the more firms with strong DI capabilities, the faster the economic recovery after the pandemic.

We investigate whether central banks from emerging markets can attract or redirect capital flows, by bringing together the entire empirical literature into the first quan- titative meta-analysis. We dissect policy effects based on the origin of the monetary shock and type of flow. Further, we assess whether policy effects depend on factors that drive investors to either search for yields or fly to safety. Our findings indicate a mean effect size of inflows in the amount of 0.09% of quarterly GDP in response to either a 100-basis point (bp) increase in the domestic policy rate or a 100 bp reduction in the external rate. However, the effect size under a fixed effect specification is much higher (0.2%). Factors that attract inflows include output growth, foreign exchange reserves, and a more flexible exchange rate regime, while factors that deter flows include local and global risks. Finally, we find that banking flows are the most responsive to monetary policy, while foreign direct investments are the least responsive.

This paper constructs a new measure of distribution margins that covers more countries than that in the World Input–Output Database. Based on this measure, we develop a set of stylized facts and examine the effect of distribution margins on exporters' distribution-oriented foreign direct investment decision using customs data and foreign direct investment decision data from China. We find that higher distribution margins in destination countries drive exporters to conduct distribution-oriented foreign direct investment. Compared with specialized export intermediaries, manufacturers have a greater incentive to invest in distribution sectors abroad when faced with higher distribution margins.