Pretrial reform is driving criminal justice policy debates across the nation. The In re Humphrey decision required the San Francisco County criminal court to set bail levels based on defendant ability to pay rather than the county bail schedule. Under this new policy, the rate of pretrial detention fell by 11%. We find defendants released pretrial were less likely to be convicted (a decline of 3 percentage points) in the post-Humphrey period. This decline in conviction rates was driven primarily by a reduction in the likelihood of plea bargaining. These case outcome results are robust to an alternative strategy using propensity score matching and a difference-in-difference estimator to estimate effects for those most likely to be affected by the policy change. There was no consistent, statistically significant change in subsequent arrests or convictions post-Humphrey across the estimation strategies.
Although the Humphrey decision originally applied only to San Francisco, a state supreme court decision in March 2021 extended the ruling to courts throughout California. The results also have implications for other states engaged in bail reform. These findings suggest that requiring bail to be set at affordable levels increases pretrial releases overall, specifically releases to pretrial supervision programs, with improvements in case outcomes and no apparent increase in subsequent criminal justice system contact. Counties or states without robust pretrial service options may not experience the same change in releases or other outcomes. Further, jurisdictions that detain people booked on lower level offenses at higher rates than San Francisco may experience a greater response to a policy change like Humphrey.
Firearm violence continues to be a leading cause of death in the United States. As alternatives to law enforcement intervention, community-based violence prevention programs, such as Cure Violence, have become increasingly popular across U.S. cities. This article documents the results of a multiyear, mixed-methods, quasi-experimental study of the implementation and impact of Cure Violence in St. Louis, Missouri, from 2020 to 2023. We analyzed data from semistructured interviews, a two-wave community survey, and police records of neighborhood violence, finding limited evidence of program effectiveness. Although some interview participants stated that the program had a positive impact, we observed no change in community norms/perceptions of violence, and our analysis of police data suggests that program implementation was associated with declining violence in only one of the three intervention sites.
This article highlights challenges of implementing and evaluating community-based violence prevention. More work is needed to unpack the mechanisms responsible for turning program activities into measurable impacts in both the short and long term. Implications for planning and evaluating community-based violence prevention programs are discussed.
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