Criminology & Public Policy最新文献

Research Summary

This study utilized a quantitative analysis of 246 cyberattack incidents reported in the Extremist CyberCrime Database to identify significant predictors of nation-state-sponsored cyberattacks relative to those performed by non-nation-state-sponsored ideological actors. Clarke and Newman's Situational Crime Prevention framework for terrorism was used to identify differential opportunities to successfully affect targets on the basis of tools, weapons, and the ability to access targets in online settings. The analysis noted nation-state-sponsored attacks were less likely to use high-visibility attack methods and more likely to utilize attack methods leading to data breaches. In addition, they were more likely to target state governments and military entities relative to ideological actors.

Policy Implications

Nation-state attacks are more difficult to identify or mitigate while in process, requiring a more robust national cybersecurity policy framework to be implemented that moves beyond current practices. There is a need to better utilize all aspects of government, from legislation to grant funding, in order to deter cyberattacks from continuing into the future.

Research summary

Crackdowns are law enforcement strategies based on the principles of deterrence theory, which stipulates that offenders are rational actors who will refrain from crime if perceived risks are higher than perceived benefits. Studies have shown that the effects of police street drug crackdowns are mostly short termed and followed by considerable displacement. In the early 2010s, an important part of illicit drug trades moved online to cryptomarkets, and law enforcement agencies have responded by engaging in online drug crackdowns. In this study, we focus on the perceptions of dark web users in order to determine, from a qualitative “data-driven” perspective, whether police online crackdowns may have a cyber-deterrent effect by analyzing 1796 forum posts. Our results show that these events trigger psychological and practical consequences that participants claim to have a conditional, although minor, deterrent effect. In the majority of cases, dark web users claimed to engage in several forms of spatial and tactical displacement.

Policy implications

Our study suggests that police crackdowns on the dark web have limited, short-term effectiveness in curbing illicit activities. It proposes that innovative policing approaches such as problem-oriented policing and “pulling levers/focused deterrence” strategies, which involve identifying key actors and engaging with them, be potentially extended to the dark web. While this approach is promising, it emphasizes the need for further research to assess its efficacy in the online realm, as it is a largely uncharted territory for law enforcement.

Research summary

This study investigates the impact of scientific research findings on public views of policing topics. Specifically, we conducted an original survey experiment to determine whether research information treatments influence respondents’ views on the effectiveness of the police in reducing crime, defunding and refunding police budgets, and use of body-worn cameras. Our results indicated that presenting confirmatory research information had a significant positive impact on perceptions of police effectiveness in reducing crime and use of body-worn cameras compared to comparison groups. Conversely, presenting “negative” research information had a significant negative effect on these perceptions. Interestingly, neither positive nor negative research information treatments related to defunding versus refunding the police had a statistically significant impact on respondents compared to comparison groups, suggesting that research findings have limited effects on more ideologically complex policing topics.

Policy implications

Scientific research can effectively shape public perceptions of police effectiveness in reducing crime and the use of body-worn cameras, but it has limited effects on politically charged issues, such as defunding and refunding the police. To enhance the impact of evidence-based policing, we suggest that police administrators collaborate with researchers to evaluate new policies and disseminate these findings widely to the public. Additionally, researchers should strive to make their research more accessible to the general public, beyond academic journals, scientific conferences, and paywalls. We recommend using open-access platforms, social media, and other media outlets to disseminate unbiased, evidence-based research on policing that is digestible to the public.

Research Summary

Using data from the National Registry of Exonerations, we examined how the presence of confession evidence impacts prosecutors’ tendency in order to (1) commit misconduct in any form (e.g., permitting perjury and witness tampering) and (2) specifically withhold exculpatory evidence (i.e., evidence favorable to the defense). We assess these relationships particularly in the context of wrongful convictions by guilty plea from an innocent individual (i.e., false guilty plea [FGP]) or guilty verdict at trial. We show the presence of false confessions increased the likelihood of (1) prosecutors engaging in misconduct generally and (2) prosecutors withholding exculpatory evidence specifically. However, the presence of prosecutorial misconduct and withholding evidence decreased the odds of a wrongful conviction via an FGP compared to wrongful conviction via guilty verdict.

Policy Implications

Policies encouraging prosecutorial transparency and accountability are needed in order to better identify misconduct when it occurs, particularly in the context of guilty pleas. Open-file discovery policies, which aim to provide full transparency, may prevent prosecutors from intentionally or unintentionally withholding evidence when faced with strong evidence like a confession, which could ultimately decrease the potential of wrongful conviction.

Research Summary

We utilized the synthetic difference-in-difference method to estimate the impact of adopting a permitless concealed carry weapons (CCW) law on rates of assaults, robberies, and homicides committed with a firearm and by other means, as well as weapons arrests, from 1981 to 2019. We stratified permitless CCW laws by whether they previously prohibited violent misdemeanants from obtaining a CCW permit or previously required live firearm training to obtain a permit prior to law adoption. Findings robust to sensitivity analyses suggest that states that lost a training requirement to obtain a CCW permit had 21 additional gun assaults per 100,000 population (SE = 5.2) (32% increase).

Policy Implications

In the wake of the Supreme Court's decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, states should implement CCW permitting law provisions that may reduce the risk of firearm violence. Requiring live firearm training prior to carry a concealed weapon may attenuate negative health impacts of deregulation associated with permitless CCW laws.

Research Summary

A 2 × 2 × 3 fully crossed factorial experiment is used to examine the linkages between key dimensions of protection motivation theory (PMT; perceived severity of risk, vulnerability to risk, and response costs) and the intentions to adopt information technology (IT) cybersecurity recommendations after being informed of degrees of risk in the vignettes. Data in this study consist of a nationwide sample of 720 American adults. Results from a series of fractional logistic regressions indicate support for many of the core mechanisms within PMT. Seventy percent of respondents indicated they were likely to follow IT recommendations to mitigate a cyber threat. Self-efficacy and response costs affected intentions to do so.

Policy Implications

The study's findings have important implications for improving cybersecurity and reducing vulnerabilities to cyber threats. Current training programs need more effective communication strategies and engagement tools. Perceptions of users as security threats rather than potential contributors hinder progress in the ability of organizations to improve cybersecurity. Collaborative, user-centered approaches can enhance users’ self-efficacy and improve cybersecurity by aligning user and IT professional needs and capabilities. Strategies like gamified simulations and tailored interventions can create a more security-focused culture and encourage user participation in defending an organization. Recognizing individual differences among users and further examining personal characteristics that may impact user interactions with technology and cybersecurity interventions is crucial. Overall, more personalized, adaptable approaches to cybersecurity policies and technical solutions, accounting for diverse user needs and characteristics, should be a priority for improving cybersecurity practices.

Research Summary

We quantified the implementation of WA state's domestic violence (DV)-related firearm prohibitions (RCW9.41.800) by the courts and the Regional Domestic Violence Firearms Enforcement Unit (RDVFEU), a regional approach to compliance promotion. We measured implementation, vetting, compliance, and enforcement of firearm prohibitions before (2014–2016) and after (2018–2020) the RDVFEU was implemented using a 55% random sample of granted domestic violence protection orders (DVPOs) in King County, WA (n = 3543). We evaluated differences in judicial orders to surrender firearms and other dangerous weapons (OTSWs), respondent documented compliance, and respondent weapon and/or firearm relinquishment before and after implementation. Compared to DVPOs granted prior to RDVFEU implementation, granted DVPOs after RDVFEU implementation were at least 4.5 times more likely to include an OTSW. RDVFEU implementation was also associated with at least 3.4 times the odds of respondent documented compliance and at least 3.3 times the odds of respondent relinquishment of at least one firearm and/or other dangerous weapon. These findings demonstrate RDVFEU implementation was associated with benefits at each stage of the protection order process with improvements in both judicial enforcement and respondent compliance. Overall, RDVFEU implementation was associated with improvements in granted orders to surrender weapons, respondent compliance, and relinquishment.

Policy Implications

DV-related firearm prohibitions can be supported by interdisciplinary teams within the legal system to promote respondent compliance and enhance safety planning for DV victim–survivors.

Research Summary

We examined the prevalence of experiencing sexual misconduct—rape, contact sexual violence, sexual harassment—in college and whether students reported to Title IX coordinators or campus counseling services by students’ race/ethnicity. Data from the 2019 Association of American Universities survey (unweighted N = 160,387) were used to estimate multilevel logistic regression models. Across this sample, 44.70% of students experienced sexual misconduct victimization; among victim-survivors who contacted a program, 19.85% reported to Title IX and 45.63% contacted campus counseling services. Black students did not significantly differ from White students in their experiences with sexual misconduct, yet Asian students were significantly less likely than White students to experience all types of sexual misconduct. Black and Asian students had lower odds of reporting sexual misconduct to Title IX (though results vary by type of misconduct), but Black students had higher odds of reporting to campus counseling services across all types of sexual misconduct.

Policy Implications

Sexual misconduct victimization is a common experience for American college students. In response, decades of changes to federal and state laws and policies have focused on increasing reporting to campus Title IX coordinators; however, reporting to Title IX remains a rare occurrence. Reporting barriers are greatest among Black and Asian students. Campuses must address barriers in reporting to Title IX and do so in ways that are equitable for all students. Further, campuses must review their current and planned investment in counseling services and culturally centered services to ensure that they have the appropriate resources to serve students.

Research Summary

Supermax prisons exist, according to the policy's driving logic, to address serious disorder problems by isolating people who cause serious disorder. Criticisms of supermax, however, suggest that its use is driven by factors aside from serious disorder problems and that transfers to supermax have a degree of arbitrariness. The current paper uses 10 years of data on one state prison system to disentangle the relationship between “disorder” and supermax utilization by examining (1) the association between a facility's level of serious disorder and supermax transfers (prison-level analysis), (2) the association between a person's level of serious rule breaking and oppositely, “nuisance” behaviors, and the odds of a supermax transfer (individual-level analysis), and (3) whether the influence of a person's behavioral record on the odds of supermax depends upon contextual factors (prison-by-individual interaction). The results suggest that a facility's level of serious disorder does strongly correspond with its reliance on supermax and that indicators of serious rule breaking, and not minor forms of it, are strongly associated with a person's odds of experiencing a supermax transfer. However, a person's misconduct record has a weaker association with the odds of a supermax transfer in facilities that are more disorderly.

Policy Implications

The findings highlight the importance of prison context for dictating who experiences supermax and raises questions about whether prison systems have a uniform “bar” for supermax transfers. This in turn suggests a need for prison systems to reevaluate individual pathways to supermax and consider whether there are consistent metrics used for supermax placements. More broadly, the finding that context shapes who is transferred to supermax raises questions about the fundamental policy logic and suggests a need to investigate other solutions to disorder problems.

The Vollmer Award: The award honoring August Vollmer was first made in 1959. It is meant to recognize outstanding contributions to justice as well as scholarship and professional activity. I am honored to be the 2022 awardee because so many of the previous winners are individuals whose careers and work I have great respect for.

Focus of My Remarks: This essay focuses on many failures in criminal justice policy and research. Costly though they may be, failures have the potential to teach us a good deal and we ignore them at our own peril.