Criminology & Public Policy最新文献_第3页

Understanding what violent street crime, globalization, and ice cream have in common 了解街头暴力犯罪、全球化和冰淇淋的共同点

IF 3.5 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Criminology & Public Policy

Pub Date : 2025-01-29 DOI: 10.1111/1745-9133.12696

Gary LaFree

Research Summary

In recent years, nutrition researchers have found that ice cream may have as many health benefits as low-fat milk or yoghurt for those with diabetes or at risk of diabetes. Nonetheless, they have resisted reporting this finding to the media, the public, or other researchers. This observation got me thinking about how preconceived assumptions and biases affect social science in general and criminology in particular, are affected by the preconceived assumptions and biases of those who produce them. In this essay, I argue that the production of criminology is a cultural enterprise that reflects the attitudes and values of those who produce it. In my address for the Stockholm Prize, I summarize the main thesis of my Losing Legitimacy book and then discuss two recent projects that were influenced by the idea that strong social institutions reduce criminal behavior. The first examines the impact of the death of Freddie Gray in Baltimore in 2015 on crime and arrest rates. The second examines the impact of globalization on national homicide rates. In both cases, the results were unexpected.

Policy Implications

As scientists, it is critical that we evaluate research based on its theoretical soundness and methodological sophistication rather than whether it fits a currently hot topic or politically popular perspective. Science progresses by the constant process of evaluating theoretical propositions with empirical data—regardless of where those data lead us. Openness about crime and reactions to crime is no less important than honesty about the positive benefits of ice-cream consumption.

近年来，营养研究人员发现，对于糖尿病患者或有糖尿病风险的人来说，冰淇淋可能与低脂牛奶或酸奶一样有益健康。然而，他们拒绝向媒体、公众或其他研究人员报告这一发现。这个观察让我思考先入为主的假设和偏见是如何影响社会科学的，特别是犯罪学，是如何受到先入为主的假设和偏见的影响的。在这篇文章中，我认为犯罪学的生产是一项文化事业，反映了生产它的人的态度和价值观。在我的斯德哥尔摩奖获奖感言中，我总结了我的《失去合法性》一书的主要论点，然后讨论了最近两个受到强大的社会制度减少犯罪行为这一观点影响的项目。第一篇研究了2015年巴尔的摩弗雷迪·格雷（Freddie Gray）之死对犯罪率和逮捕率的影响。第二篇研究了全球化对国家凶杀率的影响。在这两种情况下，结果都出乎意料。政策影响作为科学家，我们评估研究的基础是理论的合理性和方法的复杂性，而不是它是否符合当前的热门话题或政治流行的观点。科学的进步是通过不断地用经验数据来评价理论命题，而不管这些数据把我们引向何方。对犯罪和对犯罪的反应的公开与对冰淇淋消费的积极好处的诚实同等重要。

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引用次数: 0

Identifying high-risk firearms dealers: A machine learning study of rapidly diverted firearm sales in California 识别高风险枪支经销商：加利福尼亚快速转移枪支销售的机器学习研究

IF 4.1 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Criminology & Public Policy

Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.1111/1745-9133.12692

Hannah S. Laqueur, Colette Smirniotis

Research Summary

Using firearm transaction and crime gun recovery records from California (2010–2021), we employ machine learning to identify dealers who sold largest number and highest fraction of guns recovered in crimes within 1 year of sale. This short “time-to-crime” (TTC) is a well-established indicator of potential illegal activity by dealers or traffickers. We developed two primary prediction models: the first classifies dealer-years in the top 5% of 1-year crime gun sales volume (prediction model 1), the second identifies dealer-years in the top 5% based on the fraction of sales recovered within a year (prediction model 2). Both models demonstrated strong discriminative performance, with areas under the receiver operating curve (AUCs) of 0.95 and 0.86, respectively, and areas under the precision-recall curve (AUC–PRs) of 0.72 and 0.43. By comparison, a random classifier would be expected to achieve an AUC of 0.50 and an AUC-PR of 0.05. Prediction model 1 was particularly effective at identifying the highest risk dealers: Those with predictions exceeding 0.90 consistently ranked in the top 5% across multiple years, averaging 33 1-year crime gun sales annually. The machine learning models generally outperformed simpler regression and rule-based approaches, underscoring the value of data-adaptive methods for prediction. Key predictors included prior-year crime gun sales, the average age of purchasers, the proportion of “cheap” handgun sales, and the local gun robbery and assault rate.

Policy Implications

Firearms dealers may engage in behaviors that facilitate the diversion of guns to criminal markets. Combining detailed transaction and recovery records with machine learning could help efficiently identify high-risk retailers for targeted enforcement to disrupt the flow of firearms to gun offenders. Future research is needed to determine whether a high number of short TTC sales as compared to a high fraction is a more reliable predictor of law evasion.

研究总结：使用加州（2010-2021）的枪支交易和犯罪枪支回收记录，我们使用机器学习来识别在销售一年内销售最多和犯罪中回收枪支比例最高的经销商。这一短暂的“犯罪前时间”（TTC）是一种公认的指标，表明毒品贩子或贩运者可能进行非法活动。我们开发了两个主要的预测模型：第一个模型（预测模型1）将经销商年份划分为1年犯罪枪支销量的前5%（预测模型1），第二个模型（预测模型2）根据一年内收回的销售份额确定经销商年份为前5%（预测模型2）。两个模型都表现出很强的判别性能，接受者操作曲线下面积（auc）分别为0.95和0.86，精确召回曲线下面积（auc - pr）分别为0.72和0.43。相比之下，随机分类器的AUC为0.50，AUC‐PR为0.05。预测模型1在识别风险最高的经销商方面特别有效：那些预测超过0.90的人多年来一直排在前5%，平均每年33年的犯罪枪支销售额。机器学习模型通常优于简单的回归和基于规则的方法，强调了数据自适应预测方法的价值。关键的预测因素包括前一年的犯罪枪支销售，购买者的平均年龄，“廉价”手枪销售的比例，以及当地枪支抢劫和袭击率。政策影响枪支经销商可能参与一些行为，促进枪支流向犯罪市场。将详细的交易和恢复记录与机器学习相结合，可以帮助有效地识别高风险零售商，以便有针对性地执法，以阻止枪支流向枪支犯罪者。未来的研究需要确定，与高比例的TTC销售相比，高数量的TTC销售是否更可靠地预测了法律逃避。

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引用次数: 0

The more things change, the more they stay the same: A multi-wave national assessment of police academy training curricula 事情变化越多，他们就越保持不变：警察学院培训课程的多波国家评估

IF 4.1 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Criminology & Public Policy

Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1111/1745-9133.12691

John J. Sloan, Eugene A. Paoline, Matt R. Nobles

Research Summary

Using secondary data from a census of 421 police academies nationwide continuously operating between 2002 and 2018, we assessed continuity and change in core areas of basic law enforcement training (BLET) of new police hires. Despite decades of concerns expressed by national-level commissions, scholars, and practitioners about the substance of police academy basic training, ours is the first study since the 1980s that examines the content of basic training at multiple police academies during an extended period that included two eras of policing: community oriented and evidence based. Results showed continuity throughout time in total required hours of BLET, including required hours of core curriculum training, and a disproportionate distribution of total training hours allotted to areas central to the crime fighter persona of the early 20th century professional era.

Policy Implications

This assessment revealed strong empirical evidence of long-term resistance to change in police basic training based on continuing overemphasis of traditional aspects of basic training (e.g., use of lethal weapons) over other parts (e.g., community-oriented policing). Our results, combined with recent qualitative analyses of police basic training revealing a primary “danger imperative” message broadcast to trainees by instructors along with more subtle racist and sexist messages about “bad guys” wanting to kill cops, reveal that decades of efforts to get the occupation to change what new police officers learn during basic training is apparently the equivalent of what Dorothy Guyot once termed “bending granite”—an effort doomed to fail. To weaken the granite, police practitioners and leaders involved with training must take steps toward a complete and comprehensive reorientation of police recruitment and basic training that stresses the importance of new hires acquiring a toolkit that has a guardian-based foundation and emphasis but allows for the rare instances when officers need to use warrior tools.

利用2002年至2018年间连续运营的全国421所警察学院的人口普查的二手数据，我们评估了新聘警察基本执法培训（BLET）核心领域的连续性和变化。尽管几十年来，国家级委员会、学者和从业人员对警察学院基础培训的内容表示了担忧，但我们的研究是自20世纪80年代以来的第一项研究，该研究在很长一段时间内检查了多个警察学院的基础培训内容，其中包括两个警务时代：社区导向和基于证据的。结果显示，在整个时间内，BLET所需的总学时是连续的，包括核心课程培训所需的学时，以及分配给20世纪早期职业时代打击犯罪人物核心领域的总培训时间的不成比例的分布。政策影响这项评估显示了强有力的经验证据，表明警察基础训练的改革长期受到抵制，这种抵制是基于对基础训练的传统方面（例如，使用致命武器）的持续过度强调，而忽视了其他方面（例如，以社区为导向的警务）。我们的研究结果，结合最近对警察基础训练的定性分析，揭示了教官向受训者传播的主要“危险指令”信息，以及更微妙的关于“坏人”想要杀害警察的种族主义和性别歧视信息，揭示了几十年来让职业改变新警察在基础训练中所学内容的努力，显然相当于多萝西·盖约特（Dorothy Guyot）曾经所说的“弯曲花岗岩”——一种注定要失败的努力。为了削弱这种花岗岩，参与培训的警察从业人员和领导者必须采取措施，对警察招聘和基本培训进行全面而全面的重新定位，强调新雇员获得一个以监护人为基础和重点的工具包的重要性，但在极少数情况下，警察需要使用战士工具。

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引用次数: 0

Responding to nonemergency calls for service via video: A randomized controlled trial 通过视频响应非紧急服务呼叫：随机对照试验

IF 4.1 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Criminology & Public Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1111/1745-9133.12690

Stewart Gates, Barak Ariel, Noy Assaraf

Research summary

We tested the effectiveness of virtual response in policing as an alternative to the traditional physical presence of officers to nonemergency calls for service. We randomly assigned 1059 eligible calls to either virtual or in-person responses. We estimated the results in terms of waiting time, criminal justice outcomes, cost efficiency, and victim satisfaction based on a representative sample of telephone interviews. We found significant improvements across all measures when using a virtual response, including reduced victim waiting times, greater odds of arrest and charges, and enhanced perceptions of procedural justice, satisfaction, trust, and confidence in the police service. We found no adverse effects on victims due to the lack of physical presence.

Research implications

These findings suggest that, as with e-health services, law enforcement can benefit from a cost–beneficial virtual response to nonemergency calls for service. We encourage its consideration as a mass deployment option in policing, as well as a basis for future experimental replications.

研究摘要我们测试了虚拟警务响应作为传统的警员亲临现场接听非紧急服务电话的替代方式的有效性。我们将 1059 个符合条件的报警电话随机分配给虚拟响应或亲临现场响应。我们根据具有代表性的电话访谈样本，从等待时间、刑事司法结果、成本效率和受害者满意度等方面对结果进行了估算。我们发现，在使用虚拟回应时，所有衡量指标都有明显改善，包括缩短了受害者的等待时间，提高了逮捕和指控的几率，增强了对程序正义的感知、满意度、信任度以及对警方服务的信心。这些研究结果表明，与电子医疗服务一样，执法部门可以从对非紧急服务呼叫的成本效益型虚拟响应中获益。我们鼓励将其作为警务工作中的一种大规模部署方案，并作为未来实验复制的基础。

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引用次数: 0

Bail reform and pretrial release: Examining the implementation of In re Humphrey 保释改革和审前释放：审查 In re Humphrey 案的执行情况

IF 3.5 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Criminology & Public Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1111/1745-9133.12688

Johanna Lacoe, Alissa Skog, Mia Bird

Research Summary

Pretrial reform is driving criminal justice policy debates across the nation. The In re Humphrey decision required the San Francisco County criminal court to set bail levels based on defendant ability to pay rather than the county bail schedule. Under this new policy, the rate of pretrial detention fell by 11%. We find defendants released pretrial were less likely to be convicted (a decline of 3 percentage points) in the post-Humphrey period. This decline in conviction rates was driven primarily by a reduction in the likelihood of plea bargaining. These case outcome results are robust to an alternative strategy using propensity score matching and a difference-in-difference estimator to estimate effects for those most likely to be affected by the policy change. There was no consistent, statistically significant change in subsequent arrests or convictions post-Humphrey across the estimation strategies.

Policy Implications

Although the Humphrey decision originally applied only to San Francisco, a state supreme court decision in March 2021 extended the ruling to courts throughout California. The results also have implications for other states engaged in bail reform. These findings suggest that requiring bail to be set at affordable levels increases pretrial releases overall, specifically releases to pretrial supervision programs, with improvements in case outcomes and no apparent increase in subsequent criminal justice system contact. Counties or states without robust pretrial service options may not experience the same change in releases or other outcomes. Further, jurisdictions that detain people booked on lower level offenses at higher rates than San Francisco may experience a greater response to a policy change like Humphrey.

研究摘要审判改革正在推动全美范围内的刑事司法政策辩论。In re Humphrey 案的判决要求旧金山县刑事法院根据被告的支付能力而不是县保释金标准来确定保释金水平。在这项新政策下，审前羁押率下降了 11%。我们发现，在后汉弗莱时期，审前释放的被告被定罪的可能性降低了（下降了 3 个百分点）。定罪率下降的主要原因是辩诉交易的可能性降低。使用倾向得分匹配和差异估计法来估计最有可能受政策变化影响的人群的效果，这种替代策略对这些案件结果是稳健的。尽管汉弗莱案的判决最初只适用于旧金山，但 2021 年 3 月州最高法院的一项判决将该判决扩大到了整个加利福尼亚州的法院。研究结果对其他进行保释改革的州也有借鉴意义。这些研究结果表明，要求将保释金设定在可承受的水平上可以增加审前释放的总体数量，特别是释放到审前监督计划中的人数，同时改善案件的结果，而随后与刑事司法系统的接触并没有明显增加。没有健全的审前服务方案的县或州在释放或其他结果方面可能不会出现同样的变化。此外，与旧金山相比，因低级犯罪而被拘留的人比例较高的辖区可能会对汉弗莱这样的政策变化做出更大的反应。

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引用次数: 0

Do foster youth face harsher juvenile justice outcomes? Reinvestigating child welfare bias in juvenile justice processing 寄养青少年是否面临更严厉的少年司法结果？重新调查少年司法处理中的儿童福利偏见

IF 3.5 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Criminology & Public Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1111/1745-9133.12689

Ezra G. Goldstein, Sarah A. Font, Reeve S. Kennedy, Christian M. Connell, Allison E. Kurpiel

Research summary

For decades, child welfare scholars and policy makers have been concerned with the strong association between foster care and juvenile justice involvement. Foster care placement may lead to differences in justice system outcomes if youth in foster care face “processing bias”—differentially harsh treatment by agents of the juvenile court. Previous research found that youth in foster care at the time of juvenile justice contact were treated more harshly by the court, resulting in higher rates of punitive case outcomes. We revisit the question of processing bias using detailed administrative data on more than 10,000 adolescents in Pennsylvania in 2015–2019 and a selection-on-observables design. We find no evidence of processing bias against youth in foster care. Compared to observationally equivalent cases, those that involve youth in foster care do not experience more punitive outcomes. If anything, our estimates suggest the opposite—youth in foster care are less likely to have a charge adjudicated, be placed under court-ordered supervision, or enter into juvenile detention. The precision of our estimates and bounding exercises allow us to rule out even modest evidence of punitive processing bias.

Policy implications

This paper highlights the importance of revisiting the evidence of processing bias within juvenile justice and child welfare agencies. Given the decentralized and continuously evolving nature of these systems, local jurisdictions should investigate their own case outcomes and contexts before implementing reforms to address bias. Yet, many lack the resources for such research and federal support is essential to enhance local data analysis capabilities, promoting more tailored and effective policy reforms. Initiatives that aim to integrate data from multiple systems can better understand and address the needs of overlapping populations, ultimately improving the quality of services and outcomes.

研究摘要几十年来，儿童福利学者和政策制定者一直在关注寄养与青少年司法参与之间的密切联系。如果寄养青少年面临 "处理偏差"--受到少年法庭工作人员不同程度的严厉对待，那么寄养安置可能会导致司法系统结果的差异。以往的研究发现，寄养青少年在接触少年司法时会受到法院更严厉的对待，从而导致更高的惩罚性案件结果。我们使用宾夕法尼亚州 2015-2019 年超过 10,000 名青少年的详细行政数据，并采用观察选择设计，重新审视了处理偏差问题。我们没有发现针对寄养青少年的处理偏差证据。与观察到的同等案件相比，涉及寄养青少年的案件并没有经历更多的惩罚性结果。如果有的话，我们的估算结果恰恰相反--寄养青少年被判定有罪、接受法庭监管或被青少年拘留的可能性更小。本文强调了重新审视少年司法和儿童福利机构内部处理偏差证据的重要性。鉴于这些系统的分散性和不断演变的性质，地方司法机构在实施改革以解决偏差问题之前，应调查自己的案件结果和背景。然而，许多地方缺乏开展此类研究的资源，因此联邦的支持对于提高地方数据分析能力、促进更有针对性和更有效的政策改革至关重要。旨在整合多个系统数据的举措可以更好地了解和解决重叠人群的需求，最终提高服务质量和成果。

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引用次数: 0

Short-term evaluation of Cure Violence St. Louis: Challenges, triumphs, and lessons learned 对圣路易斯市 "治愈暴力 "项目进行短期评估：挑战、胜利和经验教训

IF 3.5 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Criminology & Public Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1111/1745-9133.12687

Theodore S. Lentz, Matt Vogel, Brenda Mathias, Alessandra Early, Kimberly Rey, Tobeya Ibitayo, Matifadza Hlatshwayo Davis

Research Summary

Firearm violence continues to be a leading cause of death in the United States. As alternatives to law enforcement intervention, community-based violence prevention programs, such as Cure Violence, have become increasingly popular across U.S. cities. This article documents the results of a multiyear, mixed-methods, quasi-experimental study of the implementation and impact of Cure Violence in St. Louis, Missouri, from 2020 to 2023. We analyzed data from semistructured interviews, a two-wave community survey, and police records of neighborhood violence, finding limited evidence of program effectiveness. Although some interview participants stated that the program had a positive impact, we observed no change in community norms/perceptions of violence, and our analysis of police data suggests that program implementation was associated with declining violence in only one of the three intervention sites.

Policy Implications

This article highlights challenges of implementing and evaluating community-based violence prevention. More work is needed to unpack the mechanisms responsible for turning program activities into measurable impacts in both the short and long term. Implications for planning and evaluating community-based violence prevention programs are discussed.

研究摘要枪支暴力仍然是美国人死亡的主要原因。作为执法干预的替代方案，以社区为基础的暴力预防计划（如 "治愈暴力"）在美国各城市越来越受欢迎。本文记录了一项多年期、混合方法、准实验性研究的结果，研究内容是 2020 年至 2023 年在密苏里州圣路易斯市实施的 "治愈暴力 "项目及其影响。我们分析了来自半结构式访谈、两波社区调查和警方记录的邻里暴力事件的数据，发现项目成效的证据有限。虽然一些访谈参与者表示该计划产生了积极影响，但我们观察到社区规范/对暴力的看法没有发生变化，而且我们对警方数据的分析表明，在三个干预地点中，只有一个地点的计划实施与暴力事件的减少有关。我们还需要做更多的工作来了解将项目活动转化为短期和长期可衡量影响的机制。文章还讨论了规划和评估社区暴力预防项目的意义。

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引用次数: 0

Situational crime prevention as a harm mitigation policy for active shooter incidents 将情境犯罪预防作为主动枪击事件的伤害缓解政策

IF 3.5 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Criminology & Public Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1111/1745-9133.12686

Emily A. Greene-Colozzi, Joshua D. Freilich

Research summary

Situational crime prevention (SCP) is an environmental crime control perspective with enormous practical and policy relevance due to its practitioner-friendly theoretical approach. This study examines whether SCP interventions reduce incident casualty outcomes in active shooter incidents. We used an inductive, open-source data set of 555 active shooter and mass public shooting sites to study the applicability of SCP to active shooter and mass public violence. Our findings suggest a harm mitigation role for SCP: active shooter sites with stronger holistic SCP had fewer casualties. We assessed perpetrator motivation to test displacement, a core critique of SCP, and found that the harm mitigation potential of SCP persists even in the presence of a highly motivated offender.

Policy summary

SCP could be a practical and effective method to decrease casualties in the event of an active shooting, which is a highly motivated crime type that is difficult to predict and prevent. Public locations may select a range of appropriate SCP techniques based on individual resources and needs. The totality and interactions of these techniques may contribute to public safety in general, with diffuse benefits. This policy solution is highly oriented toward practice and real-life application, and may be used to supplement existing preventative measures like threat assessment and gun legislation.

研究摘要情境犯罪预防（SCP）是一种环境犯罪控制观点，由于其理论方法便于实践，因此具有巨大的现实意义和政策意义。本研究探讨了 SCP 干预措施是否能减少主动枪击事件中的伤亡结果。我们使用了 555 个主动枪击事件和大规模公共枪击事件现场的归纳式开源数据集，以研究 SCP 在主动枪击事件和大规模公共暴力事件中的适用性。我们的研究结果表明，SCP 具有减轻伤害的作用：具有较强整体性 SCP 的主动枪击事件现场的伤亡人数较少。我们对犯罪者的动机进行了评估，以测试SCP的核心批评--移位，结果发现，即使犯罪者动机强烈，SCP的危害缓解潜力依然存在。公共场所可根据各自的资源和需求选择一系列适当的 SCP 技术。这些技术的整体性和互动性可能会在总体上促进公共安全，并带来分散的效益。这种政策解决方案非常注重实践和实际应用，可用于补充现有的威胁评估和枪支立法等预防措施。

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引用次数: 0

Locked up and awaiting trial: Testing the criminogenic and punitive effects of spending a week or more in pretrial detention 被关起来等待审判：测试一周或更长时间的审前拘留对犯罪和惩罚的影响

IF 3.5 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Criminology & Public Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1111/1745-9133.12685

Matthew DeMichele, Ian A. Silver, Ryan M. Labrecque

Research summary

This study provides a rigorous assessment of the public safety benefits of pretrial detention by estimating the criminogenic and punitive effects of spending at least 1 week in pretrial detention across three jail systems in two states. We use a doubly robust difference-in-differences design to show that pretrial detention increases the odds for someone to miss a court appearance or be arrested by roughly 50% and increases the odds of convictions by 36%. This evidence was support by a series of supplemental analyses demonstrating that spending more than 1 day and spending more than 3 days in pretrial detention increased the odds of negative pretrial outcomes compared to someone who was booked and released from jail. The findings of this study provide evidence that pretrial detention can be counterproductive to public safety in that it leads to increased likelihood that individuals will miss court and be arrested for new crimes.

Policy implications

Jails are a unique criminal justice contact point because they hold individuals at different stages of case processing, including individuals awaiting trial, and those serving shorter sentences or waiting to be transferred to prison. Pretrial release is arguably one of the most consequential decisions in case processing for an individual. Combining our findings with the punitive and collateral effects of time spent in pretrial detention signals a need for policies to identify effective methods of release that maximize liberty, safety, and equity and minimize the criminogenic effects of pretrial detention. Jails are inhabited with pretrial detainees, detention makes outcomes worse for these detainees, and detention does not deliver on public safety as intended. We argue that a more limited and targeted use of pretrial detention is needed and more research attention on alternatives to pretrial detention.

研究摘要本研究通过估算两个州三个监狱系统中审前羁押至少一周的犯罪诱因和惩罚效果，对审前羁押的公共安全效益进行了严格评估。我们采用了双重稳健的差异设计，表明审前羁押会使某人缺席庭审或被捕的几率增加约 50%，并使定罪几率增加 36%。一系列补充分析表明，与入狱和出狱的人相比，审前拘留超过 1 天和超过 3 天会增加审前出现负面结果的几率。本研究的结果提供了证据，证明审前拘留可能会对公共安全产生反作用，因为它导致个人错过法庭和因新罪行被捕的可能性增加。审前释放可以说是案件处理过程中对个人影响最大的决定之一。结合我们的研究结果以及审前羁押时间的惩罚性和附带影响，我们认为有必要制定相关政策，以确定有效的释放方法，从而最大限度地保障自由、安全和公平，并最大限度地减少审前羁押对犯罪的影响。监狱里住满了审前被拘留者，拘留使这些被拘留者的结果变得更糟，而且拘留并没有达到预期的公共安全效果。我们认为，需要更有限度、更有针对性地使用审前拘留，并对审前拘留的替代方案进行更多研究。

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引用次数: 0

Lessons learned from Dread darknet communities: How and why are fraudsters targeting the elderly to be victims or accomplices? 从 Dread darknet 社区吸取的经验教训：欺诈者如何以及为何将老年人作为受害者或帮凶？

IF 3.5 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Criminology & Public Policy

Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1111/1745-9133.12684

Kenji Logie, Sumita Das

Research Summary

We examined darknet user discussions on the Dread forum to identify key themes and emerging topics in fraud planning, focusing additionally on elderly victimization. Using the conceptual framework of criminogenic learning to study the process of fraud planning in darknet communities of practice, we analyzed the content of original user posts (n = 818) and comments (n = 1365) collected from the Dread forum. We identified nine unique fraud categories, of which payments-related fraud was the most-discussed fraud category and accounted for 25% of original user posts. We further found our sampled forum content to be dominated by the theme of learning or knowledge sharing in eight of the nine fraud categories, which appeared in more than 44% of original user posts. Our content analysis revealed specific insights into why and how darknet forum users may target people, including the elderly subpopulation, for different types of fraud. Overall, our research demonstrates the diversity of opinion and knowledge sharing among darknet forum users in relation to planning and committing fraud against the elderly, views on who is a suitable target and why, and what veteran and aspiring fraudsters consider to be important information for success in fraud.

Policy Implications

Utilized independently or as part of a multistage strategy of darknet data analysis, our research method can be used to monitor criminally active darknet forums for current and emerging themes in fraud against general populations and vulnerable subpopulations, such as the elderly, and to develop strategies to identify, disrupt, or destroy hubs of criminal planning and knowledge sharing. Our study additionally informs policy makers of certain elder-specific vulnerabilities that might be addressed by more up-to-date elder cybercrime awareness campaigns and initiatives. Our findings also highlight the presence of insider threats that may inform discussions on how health and financial institutions can better regulate these cybersecurity risks.

研究摘要我们研究了暗网用户在 "恐惧 "论坛上的讨论，以确定欺诈计划中的关键主题和新出现的话题，并将重点放在老年人受害问题上。我们使用犯罪诱因学习的概念框架来研究暗网实践社区中的欺诈策划过程，分析了从 Dread 论坛收集的原始用户帖子（n = 818）和评论（n = 1365）的内容。我们确定了九种独特的欺诈类别，其中与支付相关的欺诈是讨论最多的欺诈类别，占用户原创帖子的 25%。我们还发现，在九个欺诈类别中，有八个类别的论坛内容以学习或知识共享为主题，占用户原创帖子的 44% 以上。我们的内容分析揭示了暗网论坛用户为何以及如何针对包括老年人在内的人群实施不同类型欺诈的具体原因。总体而言，我们的研究表明，暗网论坛用户在计划和实施针对老年人的欺诈行为、对谁是合适的目标和为什么是合适的目标的看法，以及资深欺诈者和有抱负的欺诈者认为哪些信息是欺诈成功的重要信息等方面存在意见和知识共享的多样性。政策启示独立使用或作为暗网数据分析多阶段策略的一部分，我们的研究方法可用于监控犯罪活动活跃的暗网论坛，以了解针对普通人群和老年人等弱势亚人群的欺诈中当前和新出现的主题，并制定策略以识别、瓦解或摧毁犯罪策划和知识共享中心。我们的研究还为政策制定者提供了信息，使他们了解到某些老年人特有的弱点，这些弱点可以通过更多最新的老年人网络犯罪宣传活动和倡议来解决。我们的研究结果还突显了内部威胁的存在，可为讨论卫生和金融机构如何更好地监管这些网络安全风险提供参考。

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