This study investigated the impact of patrol officer communication tactics on suspect compliance by using Systematic Social Observation (SSO) to code 438 body-worn camera and dashcam video recordings from two police agencies. Specifically, we examined officer tenor/demeanor, use of noncoercive directives, use of verbal coercion, and accusations, while controlling for a host of suspect and situational factors. Results showed that when officers presented a positive tenor/demeanor or employed noncoercive verbal tactics, suspects were significantly more likely to comply. Conversely, use of coercive verbal tactics and accusatory language did not have a significant impact on suspect compliance. In addition, negative suspect demeanor, suspect impairment, and suspect elevated emotional state negatively affected compliance.
Recent calls for police reform have focused on producing less coercive outcomes by explicitly recognizing the role that officers have in managing encounters rather than simply reacting to suspect behaviors. An increased focus on officer communication strategies in both police training and practice is likely to promote suspect compliance while reducing the need for officer use of force. Similarly, it is likely that more coercive verbal strategies have little impact on suspect compliance and may lead to negative perceptions of police interactions and law enforcement in general.
On March 1, 2022, correspondence from the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) headquarters stated that officers can no longer use minor infractions (e.g., equipment violations) as a pretextual reason to further investigate drivers for criminal behavior. If LAPD officers are to execute a discretionary stop, they must activate their body-worn cameras and reasonably articulate to the civilian why they are being investigated. The intent is to reduce racial/ethnic disparities in stops and build trust of the police within the community. Critics of the policy argue that elevated crime rates will result due to the crime suppression effect of such stops. This study examines racial differences in stops before and after the policy change, as well as whether Part 1 violent and property crimes increased. Descriptive findings show that while the counts of stops, arrests, and contraband seizures during stops decreased, the percentage of non-White civilians stopped decreased only minimally following the intervention. Results from using Bayesian synthetic control methods indicate an increase in both violent and property crimes post-intervention compared with the synthetic counterfactual. The increase in violent crimes has a low probability of being different from the counterfactual, whereas the increase in property crimes has a high probability, suggesting that the intervention led to a real change in property crimes compared with what would have been expected under the counterfactual.
This study provides preliminary evidence that emerging policies intended to restrict discretionary stops may not have the intended effect on racial disparities in police traffic stops. Instead, agencies passing similar policies may expect to see the potential unintended consequence of a spike in jurisdictional property crimes. We argue that such types of stops across a jurisdiction may have a general deterrent effect on more common and calculative crimes such as property crimes. To combat violent crimes, agencies should consider focusing discretionary stops in known hot spots. Further, our findings offer implications for research on the effects of de-policing on crime. Police agencies should monitor potential unintended impacts of these policies if enacted and be prepared to deal with such consequences.
This study investigates how information about public opinion and peer practices influences police executives' views on civilian review boards. We applied structural topic modeling in an experimental paradigm, a novel approach diverging from traditional experimental survey methods, to the open-ended responses of 1331 police executives collected in an original survey experiment. This technique enables the capture of subtle shifts in belief directly from the executives' own words. The experiment systematically varied the information provided to police executives, including state-level public opinion data from a representative sample of 16,840 U.S. residents, and peer practices in major city police agencies. Our findings reveal that police executives, although generally aligned in their views, demonstrate a readiness to update their beliefs when presented with cohesive local public opinion and information about peer practices in policing.
In a democratic society, the core policy beliefs of police executives critically shape the existence and efficacy of civilian oversight mechanisms. Our findings demonstrate the adaptability of police executives in updating their policy positions, reflecting their commitment to informed decision making in response to the dynamic nature of police governance. We find that police executives are willing to update their beliefs related to the public's ability to oversee policing in an unbiased and qualified manner when presented with information about reforms adopted by peer agencies. In contrast, information about public demand for more aggressive forms of oversight can lead to a backlash, increasing the likelihood of police executives to favor existing oversight mechanisms and to doubt the public's qualification. For executives, reformers, and scholars, these findings highlight the limitations of public opinion and benefits of peer influence as mechanisms for policy learning in policing.
Scrutiny over the quality of police work continues to increase, at the same time that a recruitment crisis may hinder policing services. Moreover, this crisis exists despite numerous work incentives for officers, which are potentially competitive salaries, early pensions, and legal protections. Using a sample of 604 undergraduate students—a natural recruiting pool for police agencies—this study explores the predictors of students’ interest in a career in policing. In addition, we conducted a randomized survey experiment to identify the effect of work incentives on students’ willingness to apply to be a police officer upon graduation. Specifically, we manipulated the starting salary, years of service until pension eligibility, and the protection afforded against lawsuits. Finally, we tested whether the effect of these incentives differs across the quality of applicants (i.e., grade point average [GPA], ability to pass existing application criteria, and subjective qualities that comprise honesty, teamwork, and compassion) and their preexisting interest in a career in policing. We found that students are generally uninterested in becoming police officers, particularly when their GPA is high. Though the starting salary was the most impactful of all incentives, some lawsuit protection is key for enticing the best students. In contrast, conditions for pension had only modest if any effects.
Recruiting is key to improving the quality of policing, particularly when many potential candidates are overlooking the career. However, research on the causes and consequences of police recruitment strategies is limited. This study implements rigorous research methods to investigate how to increase the pool of high-quality applicants to police agencies. Findings support sensible and potentially cost-effective policy decisions in regard to police recruiting, which should focus on increasing the starting salary, and on more effectively communicating the value of other existing benefits of the career that comprise lawsuit protection and attractive pension plans.
Broken windows theory suggests that police can prevent serious crime by addressing social and physical disorder in neighborhoods. In many U.S. cities, recent increases in disorder, fear, and crime have initiated calls for an intensification of disorder policing efforts. Disorder policing programs can be controversial, with evaluations yielding conflicting results. Further, a growing number of descriptive analyses of aggressive order maintenance programs raise concerns over varied negative consequences, such as increased racial disparities in arrests of citizens. Systematic review and meta-analytic techniques were used to conduct an updated analysis of the effects of disorder policing on crime. Fifty-six eligible studies including 59 independent tests of disorder policing interventions were identified, representing almost twice the number included in the previous review. As part of the meta-analysis, new effect size metrics were used. The updated meta-analysis suggests that policing disorder strategies are associated with overall statistically significant crime reduction effects that spill over into surrounding areas. The strongest program effect sizes were generated by community and problem-solving interventions designed to change social and physical disorder conditions at crime hot spots. Conversely, aggressive order maintenance strategies did not generate significant crime reductions.
The types of strategies used by police departments to address disorder seem to matter in controlling crime, and this holds important implications for police–community relations, justice, and crime prevention. Further research is needed to understand the key programmatic elements that maximize the capacity of these strategies to prevent crime.
In recent years, there has been a rise in so-called “progressive prosecutors” focused on criminal justice reforms. Although there has been considerable debate about the relationship between progressive prosecution policies and crime rates, there has been surprisingly little empirical research on the topic. Building on the limited extant research, we examined whether the inauguration of progressive prosecutors in the nation's 100 most populous counties impacted crime rates during a 21-year period (2000 to 2020). After developing an original database of progressive prosecutors in the 100 largest counties, we used heterogeneous difference-in-differences regressions to examine the influence of progressive prosecutors on crime rates. Results show that the inauguration of progressive prosecutors led to statistically higher index property (∼7%) and total crime rates (driven by rising property crimes), and these effects were strongest since 2013—a period with an increasing number of progressive prosecutors. However, violent crime rates generally were not higher after a progressive prosecutor assumed control.
Despite concerns that the election of progressive prosecutors leads to “surging” levels of violence, these findings suggest that progressive-oriented prosecutorial reforms led to relatively higher rates of property crime but had limited impact on rates of violent crime. In fact, in absolute terms, crime rates fell in jurisdictions with traditional and progressive prosecutors. Yet, relative property crime rates were greater after the inauguration of progressive prosecutors. Given that prior research shows progressive prosecutors reduce mass incarceration and racial inequalities, our findings indicate that higher property crime rates may be the price for these advancements.
We conducted a group randomized-controlled trial of an internal dashboard system deployed by the Michigan State Police to determine its effectiveness in reducing traffic stop racial disparities. Informed by a difference-in-differences design, analyses of traffic stop data from 2019–2022 indicated that the dashboard had no impact on traffic stop racial disparities. Additional analyses of traffic stops, crashes, and crime revealed that the dashboard had no “de-policing” effect on traffic patrols, nor were there any significant changes in traffic safety or crime in treatment patrol areas relative to control patrol areas. Qualitative analyses of interview data from more than 40 troopers in the agency revealed unique barriers to program implementation and opportunities for future improvement.
In an era of policing where the capacity and demand for data-driven decision-making is on the rise, evidence-based policy and practice can provide police agencies with informed solutions for addressing traffic stop racial disparities. Yet, the increased demand for evidence-based reform is fueled by a relatively low supply of evidence-based research. This study adds to this evidence base by providing unique insights into the effectiveness of a program built specifically to reduce racial disparities in traffic stops, while also highlighting implementation challenges.
We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis examining whether increasing preventive patrol in large areas reduces crime. Our review included experimental and quasi-experimental studies that focused on areas such as beats, precincts, or entire jurisdictions and that measured a crime outcome either through official data or surveys. We identified 17 studies to include in our review. We used two methods for assessing study impacts: an approach which identified a primary/general outcome measure and a second approach which used robust variance estimation (RVE) and included all effect sizes across each study. Both approaches showed small crime prevention benefits (RVE: 9% decline; primary/general: 6% decline), but only the RVE model was significant at conventional levels (p < 0.05). There was no significant evidence of displacement. Moderator analyses suggest that as dosage increases so do the crime prevention impacts. In RVE models, preventive patrol was associated with significant reductions in property and violent crime, but nonsignificant increases in drug and disorder offenses.
Increasing preventive patrol activities has the potential to reduce crime in large administrative areas. At the same time, existing studies offer little guidance as to how such preventive patrol should be carried out. Deterrence theory, as well as evidence from studies of hot spots policing, suggests that the greatest benefits will be gained from informing patrol efforts about where and when crime occurs. Although more research is needed regarding patrol allocations in large areas, present knowledge suggests that the more such patrols can be targeted at specific places at specific times, the greater will be the crime control benefits. In this context, we argue that police agencies may want to apply a hybrid approach to police patrol, which would include a combination of hot spots policing units and general patrol units informed by data on where crime is concentrated.
The primary outcome desired for juvenile delinquency programs is the cessation of delinquent and related problematic behaviors. However, this outcome is almost always pursued by attempting to change intermediate outcomes, such as family functioning, improved mental health, or peer relations. We can conceptualize intermediate outcomes that are related to reduced delinquency as change levers for effective intervention. A large meta-analysis identified several school-related change levers, including school engagement (i.e., improved attendance and reduced truancy), nondelinquent problem behaviors, and attitudes about school and teachers. In addition, family functioning and reducing substance use were also effective change levers. In contrast, effects on youth getting/keeping a job, peer relationships, and academic achievement were not associated with reduced delinquency.
Only a small percentage of rehabilitative programs provided to youth involved in the juvenile justice system have been established as evidence based. Moreover, there are constraints on what local policy makers and practitioners can do regarding the selection, adoption, and implementation of programs from the available lists of evidence-based programs. Adopting programs that focus on effective change levers and avoiding those that concentrate on ineffective ones has the potential to increase the likelihood that a local agency is engaged in effective programming. Based on our data, programs known to improve family functioning, attachment to and involvement in schooling, and reducing substance use are justified by the change lever evidence, even if these programs’ effectiveness in reducing delinquency has not been directly proven. In contrast, programs focusing on vocational skills, academic achievement, and peer relations are less likely to be beneficial. Furthermore, a change lever perspective can help frontline staff select appropriate programs for different juvenile offenders and focus their quality control efforts on those aspects of a program that are likely to be essential to maintaining effectiveness.
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