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A hybrid Bayesian BWM-machine learning framework for university digital transformation assessment: Integrating expert clustering and predictive validation 用于大学数字化转型评估的混合贝叶斯bwm -机器学习框架:集成专家聚类和预测验证
IF 12.5 1区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL ISSUES Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2025.103170
Huai-Wei Lo , Sheng-Wei Lin
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence–driven technologies has underscored the need for universities to undergo a comprehensive digital transformation. This study introduces a novel hybrid framework that combines the Bayesian best–worst method (BBWM) with machine learning techniques to identify and assess key success factors for university digital transformation. This study integrates expert clustering analysis and predictive modeling validation to provide enhanced decision support capabilities. Through systematic evaluation of 27 experts across 5 key dimensions—digital infrastructure, teaching and learning, research, administration and governance, and stakeholder engagement—the analysis revealed critical insights into transformation priorities. Clustering analysis identified seven distinct stakeholder assessment patterns, demonstrating significant heterogeneity in evaluation approaches across professional backgrounds and experience levels. Digital skills and literacy development emerged as the most influential factor, followed by the availability of online learning resources and the adequacy of network infrastructure. Methodological validation demonstrated exceptional convergence between the BBWM and traditional BWM (correlation coefficient: 0.9961), whereas machine learning validation confirmed the robustness of dimensional priority hierarchies through feature importance analysis. The hybrid framework achieved a ranking confidence of 70.23 % and provides stakeholder-specific insights for developing differentiated implementation strategies. This study contributes to the digital transformation literature by presenting the first integration of Bayesian inference and machine learning for university assessment, providing evidence-based frameworks to support strategic technology planning and resource allocation in an increasingly digital educational landscape.
人工智能驱动技术的快速发展凸显了大学进行全面数字化转型的必要性。本研究引入了一种新的混合框架,将贝叶斯最佳-最差方法(BBWM)与机器学习技术相结合,以识别和评估大学数字化转型的关键成功因素。本研究整合了专家聚类分析和预测模型验证,以提供增强的决策支持能力。通过对27位专家在5个关键维度(数字基础设施、教学与学习、研究、管理与治理以及利益相关者参与)的系统评估,分析揭示了对转型优先事项的关键见解。聚类分析确定了七种不同的利益相关者评估模式,显示了不同专业背景和经验水平的评估方法的显著异质性。数字技能和扫盲发展成为最具影响力的因素,其次是在线学习资源的可用性和网络基础设施的充足性。方法验证表明,BBWM与传统BWM之间具有出色的收敛性(相关系数:0.9961),而机器学习验证通过特征重要性分析证实了维度优先级层次的鲁棒性。混合框架的置信度达到70.23%,并为制定差异化实施策略提供了特定于利益相关者的见解。本研究通过首次将贝叶斯推理和机器学习整合到大学评估中,为数字化转型文献做出了贡献,提供了基于证据的框架,以支持日益数字化的教育环境中的战略技术规划和资源分配。
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引用次数: 0
Employment in the digital economy: Role of artificial intelligence and technological innovation 数字经济中的就业:人工智能和技术创新的作用
IF 12.5 1区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL ISSUES Pub Date : 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2025.103171
Myne Uddin , Ayub Ali , Abu Bakkar Siddik
In the age of the digital economy, technological advancements are reshaping labor markets, creating both new opportunities and challenges. However, the impact of digitalization, particularly the roles of artificial intelligence (AI) and technological innovation (TI), on employment remains insufficiently examined. This study examines the effect of the digital economy on employment in 36 OECD countries from 2005 to 2022, focusing on the moderating roles of AI and TI, using the Driscoll-Kraay Standard Errors (DKSE) model and various robustness tests. The findings show that: (1) the digital economy enhances employment, with a stronger effect at lower employment quantiles; (2) AI and TI strengthen the digital economy's impact, although AI's direct effect is negative, while innovation's effect is positive; (3) the digital economy increases employment through political, economic, and social globalization; (4) sectoral analysis reveals that the digital economy reduces jobs in agriculture while boosting those in the service sector, and has a positively insignificant effect on the industrial sector; and (5) heterogeneity analysis indicates that the digital economy's benefits are more pronounced in highly developed, industrialized, and less urbanized countries. The study emphasizes the need for tailored policies to maximize the benefits of digitalization, address the challenges posed by AI, and ensure sustainable and equitable labor market growth.
在数字经济时代,技术进步正在重塑劳动力市场,创造新的机遇和挑战。然而,数字化对就业的影响,特别是人工智能(AI)和技术创新(TI)的作用,仍然没有得到充分的研究。本研究使用Driscoll-Kraay标准误差(DKSE)模型和各种稳健性检验,考察了2005年至2022年36个经合组织国家数字经济对就业的影响,重点关注人工智能和信息技术的调节作用。研究结果表明:(1)数字经济促进了就业,在就业分位数越低的地方,数字经济对就业的促进作用越强;(2)人工智能和信息技术增强了数字经济的影响,但人工智能的直接影响是负的,而创新的影响是正的;(3)数字经济通过政治、经济和社会全球化增加就业;(4)行业分析显示,数字经济在促进服务业就业的同时减少了农业就业,对工业部门的影响不显著;(5)异质性分析表明,在高度发达、工业化程度高、城市化程度低的国家,数字经济的效益更为显著。该研究强调需要制定量身定制的政策,以最大限度地发挥数字化的效益,应对人工智能带来的挑战,并确保可持续和公平的劳动力市场增长。
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引用次数: 0
Hybrid global governance for responsible and inclusive Artificial Intelligence: Proposing a new Sustainable Development Goal 18 负责任和包容性人工智能的混合全球治理:提出新的可持续发展目标18
IF 12.5 1区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL ISSUES Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2025.103159
Esmat Zaidan , Jon Truby , Imad Antoine Ibrahim , Thomas Hoppe
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly recognised as a transformative force in advancing and potentially undermining, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). While AI can drive innovation to benefit SDG's , it also amplifies risks such as bias, surveillance abuse, and environmental impacts. Existing governance approaches remain fragmented, with principles-based, rights-based, risk-based, and ethics-based frameworks operating in silos. This paper proposes integrating them into a hybrid governance framework by introducing a new SDG 18 on Responsible and Inclusive AI for Sustainable Development. The proposed SDG 18 can offer a politically feasible, soft-law mechanism to align AI innovation with SDGs of societal well-being, global equity and sustainability. Designed as a pervasive Goal across the SDGs, the proposal would be beneficial by embedding human-centric values, environmental stewardship, and collaborative governance into AI oversight, and seek to advance the achievement of the remaining SDGs with AI tools. The framework contributes to debates on international technology governance by providing policymakers with an adaptable tool for managing AI's cross-border impacts, promoting trust and ensuring that technological progress serves public interest.
人工智能(AI)越来越被认为是推动和潜在破坏联合国可持续发展目标(sdg)的变革性力量。虽然人工智能可以推动创新以促进可持续发展目标的实现,但它也放大了偏见、滥用监督和环境影响等风险。现有的治理方法仍然支离破碎,以原则为基础、以权利为基础、以风险为基础和以道德为基础的框架各自为政。本文建议通过引入关于负责任和包容性人工智能促进可持续发展的新的可持续发展目标18,将它们纳入混合治理框架。拟议的可持续发展目标18可以提供一种政治上可行的软法律机制,使人工智能创新与社会福祉、全球公平和可持续性的可持续发展目标保持一致。该提案被设计为贯穿可持续发展目标的普遍目标,通过将以人为本的价值观、环境管理和协作治理嵌入人工智能监督中,并寻求利用人工智能工具推动其余可持续发展目标的实现,将是有益的。该框架为政策制定者提供了一种适应性强的工具,用于管理人工智能的跨境影响、促进信任和确保技术进步服务于公共利益,从而促进了关于国际技术治理的辩论。
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引用次数: 0
The relationship between worry about technological progress and job engagement - Differences by type of job characteristics 对技术进步的担忧与工作投入的关系——工作特征类型的差异
IF 12.5 1区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL ISSUES Pub Date : 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2025.103163
Sojin Yoon, Na Yeon Lee, Yerim Lim, Sehee Hong
Unlike earlier waves of technological development, Industry 4.0 technologies now challenge the assumption that complex and analytical roles are less susceptible to automation. This study examines the relationship of concerns about technological progress with workers' job engagement, particularly how these vary across different job characteristics. Using data from 17,087 Korean employees, we categorized job characteristics into four types: High Autonomy-Simple (23.4 %), Low Autonomy-Simple (33.8 %), High Autonomy-Complex (28.8 %), and Low Autonomy-Complex (14.0 %). The results indicate that worry about technological progress and automation negatively relates to job engagement, with the extent of these results differing across job characteristic groups. These findings highlight the need to consider job characteristics when assessing the relationship between technological concerns and workers' job engagement. Additionally, the importance of enhancing employees' perceived usefulness and ease of use of emerging technologies to foster resilience in an evolving labor market was emphasized.
与早期的技术发展浪潮不同,工业4.0技术现在挑战了复杂和分析角色不易受自动化影响的假设。本研究考察了对技术进步的关注与工人工作投入的关系,特别是这些关系在不同的工作特征中是如何变化的。我们利用韩国17,087名员工的数据,将工作特征分为高自主性-简单(23.4%)、低自主性-简单(33.8%)、高自主性-复杂(28.8%)、低自主性-复杂(14.0%)等4种类型。结果表明,对技术进步和自动化的担忧与工作敬业度呈负相关,并且这些结果的程度在不同的工作特征组中有所不同。这些发现强调,在评估技术关注和员工工作投入之间的关系时,需要考虑工作特征。此外,还强调了提高员工对新兴技术的感知有用性和易用性的重要性,以促进在不断变化的劳动力市场中的复原力。
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引用次数: 0
Digital industrial agglomeration and breakthrough technological innovation: Evidence from business registration data 数字产业集聚与突破性技术创新:来自工商登记数据的证据
IF 12.5 1区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL ISSUES Pub Date : 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2025.103161
Hong Zhao , Xiaoxi Cao , Tao Ma
Promoting breakthrough technological innovation (BTInnovation) through digital industrial agglomeration (DIAgg) is a crucial component of achieving technological self-reliance and constructing a modern industrial system. Existing studies have focused on the impact of agglomeration on innovation, yet there is a lack of discussion regarding the effect of DIAgg on BTInnovation. Based on county-level panel data from 2003 to 2021, this study employs business registration data to measure the development level of DIAgg and analyzes its impact on BTInnovation. The findings reveal that DIAgg significantly enhances BTInnovation, a conclusion that remains robust under several robustness checks. The primary mechanisms driving the main effect are the labor pool and the technological spillover effect. Heterogeneity analysis reveals a stronger main effect in counties with superior market potential, a better business environment, greater attention to digital technology, lower intra-county competition and a specialized agglomeration model. Further analysis demonstrates that the promotional effect of DIAgg on BTInnovation in China primarily stems from specialized agglomeration. There findings contribute to the theoretical understanding of how industrial agglomeration affects innovation in the digital era and offer valuable implications for developing countries seeking to advance DIAgg and achieve high-quality development.
通过数字产业集聚推动突破性技术创新,是实现技术自主、构建现代产业体系的重要组成部分。现有的研究主要集中在集聚对创新的影响上,但缺乏对集聚对企业创新的影响的讨论。本研究基于2003 - 2021年的县域面板数据,采用工商登记数据衡量企业创新发展水平,并分析其对企业创新的影响。研究结果显示,DIAgg显著增强了BTInnovation,这一结论在几个稳健性检查下仍然是稳健性的。驱动主效应的主要机制是劳动力池效应和技术溢出效应。异质性分析表明,在市场潜力优势、营商环境较好、数字技术关注度较高、县域竞争程度较低、集聚模式专业化的县域,主效应更强。进一步分析表明,DIAgg对中国企业创新的促进作用主要源于专业化集聚。这些发现有助于从理论上理解数字时代产业集聚如何影响创新,并为寻求推进数字时代产业集聚和实现高质量发展的发展中国家提供有价值的启示。
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引用次数: 0
A comparative investigation of the impact of digitalisation and work-from-home policy on firm performance: MNEs vs international SMEs 数字化和在家工作政策对公司绩效影响的比较研究:跨国公司与国际中小企业
IF 12.5 1区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL ISSUES Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2025.103169
Seyed Hossein Razavi Hajiagha , Hannan Amoozad Mahdiraji , Maryam Behnam , Jose Arturo Garza-Reyes
The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the adoption of work-from-home (WFH) practices, raising important questions about their long-term implications for organisational performance. This issue is particularly salient for multinational enterprises (MNEs) and international small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), where digitalisation has significantly reshaped work arrangements. This study evaluates the advantages and disadvantages of WFH and their differential impacts on MNEs and international SMEs. A comparative analysis was conducted using expert pairwise judgements, assessed through linguistic terms with weakened hedges (LTWHs) within the Best–Worst Method (BWM) framework. The LTWHs approach enables experts to articulate nuanced and flexible preferences, extending traditional linguistic scales by softening the strength of evaluations. This makes it particularly suited for capturing subjective assessments of WFH impacts under conditions of uncertainty. The findings indicate substantial variation in WFH adoption, with private sector organisations demonstrating approximately 50 % greater willingness to adopt WFH compared to public authorities. The analysis further highlights the distinct advantages and disadvantages that shape the performance outcomes of MNEs and international SMEs. By introducing a novel hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference approach, this study develops a comprehensive framework for assessing the organisational consequences of WFH. The results offer valuable insights for managers and policymakers seeking to strike a balance between flexibility, productivity, and resilience in the design of post-pandemic work strategies.
2019冠状病毒病大流行加速了在家工作(WFH)实践的采用,引发了有关其对组织绩效的长期影响的重要问题。这个问题对于跨国企业(MNEs)和国际中小企业(SMEs)来说尤为突出,因为数字化极大地改变了这些企业的工作安排。本研究评估了WFH的优势和劣势,以及它们对跨国公司和国际中小企业的不同影响。使用专家两两判断进行比较分析,在最佳-最差方法(BWM)框架内通过带有弱化对冲(LTWHs)的语言术语进行评估。LTWHs方法使专家能够阐明细微而灵活的偏好,通过软化评估的强度来扩展传统的语言尺度。这使得它特别适合于获取在不确定条件下对水谷影响的主观评估。调查结果表明,采用WFH的情况存在很大差异,与公共机构相比,私营部门组织采用WFH的意愿高出约50%。分析进一步强调了形成跨国公司和国际中小企业绩效结果的独特优势和劣势。通过引入一种新的犹豫模糊语言偏好方法,本研究开发了一个全面的框架来评估WFH的组织后果。研究结果为管理人员和政策制定者在设计大流行后工作战略时寻求在灵活性、生产力和复原力之间取得平衡提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Fintech, BigTech credit and sustainable development: International evidence 金融科技、大科技信用与可持续发展:国际证据
IF 12.5 1区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL ISSUES Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2025.103160
Shahzad Hussain , Ajid Ur Rehman , Hina Affandi , Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan , Nader Naifar
This research study explores the connection between financial and technological services, namely BigTech and Fintech credit and sustainable development in 85 nations. The findings show a strong and positive association between tech-enabled credit and sustainable development, although with a more substantial impact observed in developed economies than in developing ones. The study highlights how Fintech credit promotes financial inclusion, reduces the cost of transactions, and encourages investments in green technologies, thus promoting sustainable economic development. Fintech's role in enhancing access to financial services and supporting environmentally friendly investments is highlighted. These results underscore the need for forward-looking policymaking in stimulating Fintech uptake as a way of facilitating both environmental and economic sustainability. This research contributes to the body of knowledge by providing robust empirical evidence of Fintech contribution to sustainable development.
本研究探讨了85个国家的金融和技术服务,即BigTech和Fintech信贷与可持续发展之间的联系。研究结果表明,技术支持的信贷与可持续发展之间存在强烈的正相关关系,尽管发达经济体的影响比发展中经济体更大。该研究强调了金融科技信贷如何促进普惠金融,降低交易成本,鼓励绿色技术投资,从而促进经济可持续发展。会议强调了金融科技在提高金融服务可及性和支持环境友好型投资方面的作用。这些结果强调了前瞻性政策制定的必要性,以刺激金融科技的采用,作为促进环境和经济可持续性的一种方式。本研究为金融科技对可持续发展的贡献提供了强有力的经验证据,从而为知识体系做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Driving out risk: A taxonomy of factors influencing perceived safety in automated vehicles and the role of knowledge-based variation 排除风险:影响自动驾驶车辆感知安全性的因素分类以及基于知识的变化的作用
IF 12.5 1区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL ISSUES Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2025.103164
Xinyi Wu , Luca Mora , Clare McTigue
Despite ongoing technological advancements, public acceptance of automated vehicles (AVs) remains limited, with perceived safety (PSAV) emerging as a pivotal determinant of trust and adoption. While prior research has identified factors such as cybersecurity, legal accountability, and functional performance as influential, these elements are often examined in isolation and without a unifying framework. Furthermore, the role of individuals' Knowledge Levels of AVs (KLAV) in shaping the salience of safety concerns remains underexplored. This study addresses these gaps through a qualitative investigation involving 66 interviews with members of the public and AV experts in the United Kingdom. We develop an empirically grounded taxonomy of PSAV comprising thirteen factors, organized into three overarching categories: Technological Safety, Psychological Safety, and Social Safety. Our findings suggest that perceptions of safety are not uniform but vary with participants’ KLAV, which is associated with differences in how safety concerns are interpreted and prioritized. The study advances theoretical understanding by reconceptualizing PSAV as a multidimensional and knowledge-sensitive construct. Practically, the taxonomy and KLAV-based insights offer actionable guidance for AV research, public engagement, and anticipatory governance, supporting more inclusive and socially responsive pathways for AV deployment.
尽管技术不断进步,但公众对自动驾驶汽车(AVs)的接受程度仍然有限,感知安全性(PSAV)正在成为信任和采用的关键决定因素。虽然先前的研究已经确定了网络安全、法律责任和职能绩效等因素的影响,但这些因素往往是孤立的,没有统一的框架。此外,个人对自动驾驶汽车的知识水平(KLAV)在塑造安全问题突出性方面的作用仍未得到充分探讨。本研究通过对英国公众和AV专家进行66次访谈的定性调查来解决这些差距。我们开发了一个基于经验的PSAV分类,包括13个因素,分为三个总体类别:技术安全,心理安全和社会安全。我们的研究结果表明,对安全的看法并不统一,而是随着参与者的KLAV而变化,这与如何解释和优先考虑安全问题的差异有关。该研究通过将PSAV重新定义为一个多维的、知识敏感的结构来推进理论理解。实际上,分类法和基于klv的见解为自动驾驶汽车的研究、公众参与和预期治理提供了可操作的指导,为自动驾驶汽车的部署提供了更具包容性和社会响应性的途径。
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引用次数: 0
Decoding AI innovation: How R&D alliances drive technological breakthrough 解码人工智能创新:研发联盟如何推动技术突破
IF 12.5 1区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL ISSUES Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2025.103165
Yang Huang , Fangzhou Song , Chengkun Liu
Artificial intelligence (AI) innovation is central to technological progress in the digital economy, yet little is known about how different R&D alliance types shape this process. Drawing on resource dependence theory (RDT), we examine how market- and research-oriented alliances affect AI innovation using patent-based measures constructed via a bag-of-words (BoW) model and panel data on Chinese listed firms. Results show that market alliances significantly enhance AI innovation, including generative AI (Gen_AI), whereas research alliances hinder general AI innovation and exhibit no significant relationship with Gen_AI. These results remain consistent across different robustness (replacement variables, exclusion of financial volatility, stricter fixed effects, dual machine learning) and endogeneity tests (GMM and instrumental variables). Moderation analyses reveal that knowledge path dependence weakens the benefits of market alliances and amplifies the drawbacks of research alliances, while dynamic capabilities reverse these effects by enabling knowledge integration and redeployment. Therefore, we extend RDT by revealing how internal inertia and adaptive capacity influence the effectiveness of R&D alliances in driving AI innovation through moderation effects. These findings offer theoretical insights and practical guidance for firms leveraging R&D alliances to sustain AI innovation in fast-changing environments.
人工智能(AI)创新是数字经济中技术进步的核心,但人们对不同类型的研发联盟如何影响这一进程知之甚少。本文利用资源依赖理论(RDT),通过词袋模型和中国上市公司的面板数据构建基于专利的测度,考察了市场和研究导向的联盟对人工智能创新的影响。研究结果表明,市场联盟显著促进人工智能创新,包括生成型人工智能(Gen_AI),而研究联盟阻碍一般人工智能创新,与Gen_AI没有显著关系。这些结果在不同的稳健性(替代变量、排除金融波动、更严格的固定效应、双机器学习)和内生性检验(GMM和工具变量)中保持一致。适度分析表明,知识路径依赖削弱了市场联盟的利益,放大了科研联盟的弊端,而动态能力通过促进知识整合和再部署逆转了这些影响。因此,我们通过揭示内部惯性和适应能力如何通过调节效应影响研发联盟推动人工智能创新的有效性来扩展RDT。这些发现为企业利用研发联盟在快速变化的环境中维持人工智能创新提供了理论见解和实践指导。
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引用次数: 0
A multi-dimensional FinTech composite integrating infrastructure, access, usage, knowledge transfer, and governance-by-technology: The role of digital silk road policy in BRI economies 整合基础设施、接入、使用、知识转移和技术治理的多维金融科技组合:数字丝绸之路政策在“一带一路”经济体中的作用
IF 12.5 1区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL ISSUES Pub Date : 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2025.103162
Huma Iftikhar , Luo Guang , Atta Ullah
This research pioneers the assessment of the progress, demand, and future potential of financial technology (FinTech) in 148 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries from 2004 to 2023. For this purpose, FinTech index is constructed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) from 19 indicators, based on five dimensions: (1) digital and technological infrastructure, (2) access to tech-enabled financial services, (3) usage of tech-enabled financial services, (4) knowledge transfer, and (5) digital governance and enabling environment. The methodological credibility and robustness of the FinTech composite were ensured by using a two-step system GMM, parallel trend analysis, difference-in-differences (DiD), and propensity score matching-difference-in-differences (PSM-DiD). In empirical analysis, “Digital Silk Road” is incorporated as a policy variable, whereas research and development, regulatory governance, tax revenue of GDP, inflation, and government spending serve as covariates. An increasing trend was observed from 2015 to 2023, implying that accelerating FinTech adoption was observed after the “Digital Silk Road” initiative of 2015, driven by demand-side pull (smartphone/e-commerce diffusion) and supply-side push (digital infrastructure and pro-FinTech regulation). Further, sub-group income- and region-wise heatmaps in Origin 2025 visually uncovered income and regional disparities in FinTech development. East Asian and European countries emerged as regional FinTech leaders, while African, particularly sub-Saharan economies, reflected weak regulatory frameworks, limited digital financial literacy, and infrastructure deficiencies. This research also serves as an analytical tool for country-wise decomposition, identifying strengths and weaknesses in FinTech adoption and highlighting areas for policy intervention. From 2015 to 2023, Korea ranked highest in BRI-FTI, followed by China and Seychelles, implying the best FinTech ecosystem, whereas Somalia, Ethiopia, and Eritrea have weak FinTech ecosystems. The research introduces new perspectives and serves as a valuable guide for governments, legislators, industries, and financial institutions for tailored policy strategies based on a country's specific development context by integrating a demand–supply lens that attributes outcomes to both consumer uptake and infrastructure/regulatory supply. The findings highlight the urgency of cross-border knowledge exchange, regulatory harmonization, and digital upskilling to bridge the divide between BRI countries. Across Belt and Road corridors, the BRI—especially the Digital Silk Road—expanded the supply of digital rails and enabled regulation while deeper trade, tourism, and platform spillovers amplified demand for cross-border payments, credit, and e-commerce.
本研究首次评估了2004年至2023年148个“一带一路”倡议(BRI)国家金融科技(FinTech)的进展、需求和未来潜力。为此,金融科技指数采用主成分分析(PCA)从19个指标构建,基于五个维度:(1)数字和技术基础设施;(2)获得技术金融服务;(3)使用技术金融服务;(4)知识转移;(5)数字治理和有利环境。通过使用两步系统GMM、平行趋势分析、差异中的差异(DiD)和倾向评分匹配差异中的差异(PSM-DiD),确保了FinTech组合的方法学可信度和稳健性。在实证分析中,将“数字丝绸之路”作为政策变量,将研发、监管治理、GDP税收、通货膨胀和政府支出作为协变量。从2015年到2023年,这一趋势呈上升趋势,这意味着在2015年“数字丝绸之路”倡议提出后,在需求侧拉动(智能手机/电子商务扩散)和供给侧推动(数字基础设施和支持金融科技的监管)的推动下,金融科技的采用正在加速。此外,《起源2025》中的分组收入和地区热图直观地揭示了金融科技发展中的收入和地区差异。东亚和欧洲国家成为地区金融科技领导者,而非洲,特别是撒哈拉以南非洲经济体,反映出监管框架薄弱,数字金融知识有限,基础设施不足。这项研究还可以作为国家层面的分析工具,确定金融科技采用的优势和劣势,并突出政策干预的领域。从2015年到2023年,韩国在BRI-FTI中排名最高,其次是中国和塞舌尔,这意味着金融科技生态系统最好,而索马里、埃塞俄比亚、厄立特里亚的金融科技生态系统较弱。该研究引入了新的视角,并为政府、立法者、行业和金融机构提供了有价值的指导,可以根据一个国家的具体发展背景,通过整合供需视角,将结果归因于消费者接受和基础设施/监管供应。研究结果强调了跨境知识交流、监管协调和数字技能提升的紧迫性,以弥合“一带一路”国家之间的鸿沟。在“一带一路”沿线,“一带一路”特别是“数字丝绸之路”扩大了数字轨道的供应,促进了监管,而更深层次的贸易、旅游和平台溢出效应扩大了对跨境支付、信贷和电子商务的需求。
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Technology in Society
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