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How may solar geoengineering impact global prospects for climate change mitigation? 太阳能地球工程如何影响减缓气候变化的全球前景?
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad044
Katharine Ricke, Anthony Harding
As disruptions from climate change increase, so will the urgency to find shorter-term approaches to ameliorating its harms. This may include calls to implement solar geoengineering, an approach to cooling the planet by reflecting incoming sunlight back to space. While the exact effects of solar geoengineering are still highly uncertain, physical science to date suggests that it may be effective at reducing many aspects of climate change in the short term. One of the biggest concerns about solar geoengineering is the extent to which it may interfere with crucial emissions reductions policies, i.e. mitigation. There are multiple channels by which geoengineering could alter mitigation pathways, both financial and behavioural. Here we define three such linkages and present the evidence available to constrain their potential magnitudes. Because solar geoengineering is not a substitute for mitigation, policies to develop or implement technologies that could be used to carry it out should be designed to accentuate its complementary nature to mitigation and deter the possibility it is used to delay decarbonizing the economy.
随着气候变化带来的破坏加剧,寻找短期方法减轻其危害的紧迫性也在增加。这可能包括呼吁实施太阳能地球工程,这是一种通过将入射的阳光反射回太空来冷却地球的方法。虽然太阳能地球工程的确切效果仍然高度不确定,但迄今为止的物理科学表明,它可能在短期内有效地减少气候变化的许多方面。关于太阳能地球工程的最大关切之一是它可能在多大程度上干扰关键的减排政策,即减缓。地球工程可以通过多种途径改变减缓途径,包括财政和行为。在这里,我们定义了三个这样的联系,并提出了现有的证据来限制它们的潜在幅度。由于太阳能地球工程不能替代缓解措施,因此制定或实施可用于实施该措施的技术的政策应强调其与缓解措施的互补性,并防止其被用来拖延经济脱碳的可能性。
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引用次数: 1
How will climate change affect ambient air pollution and what can policy-makers do now? Lessons from India 气候变化将如何影响环境空气污染,决策者现在可以做些什么?印度的经验教训
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad041
Avraham Ebenstein, Sangeeta Bansal, Sagnik Dey, Tanya Gupta, Kshitij Abhay Kakade, Avi Simhon
Air pollution is a growing concern in India, and its adverse health effects are well documented. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this problem by altering weather patterns and increasing the frequency and severity of extreme events. This paper examines the potential impact of climate change on ambient air pollution in India and its implications for policy design. Our analysis reveals that pollution in India is highly sensitive to variation in weather, particularly in the densely populated Indus-Gangetic Plain. Using our estimated relationship between weather and pollution, we predict that changing weather patterns will increase average PM2.5 concentrations by 3.1 µg/m3, leading to a loss of 364 million years of life expectancy. To address this challenge, we propose an emissions fee calibrated to be highest in regions most vulnerable to persistently high levels of pollution and most sensitive to future deterioration in air quality due to climate change.
空气污染在印度日益受到关注,其对健康的不利影响有据可查。气候变化可能会改变天气模式,增加极端事件的频率和严重程度,从而加剧这一问题。本文探讨了气候变化对印度环境空气污染的潜在影响及其对政策设计的影响。我们的分析表明,印度的污染对天气变化非常敏感,特别是在人口稠密的印度河-恒河平原。利用我们估计的天气与污染之间的关系,我们预测天气模式的变化将使PM2.5平均浓度增加3.1微克/立方米,导致预期寿命减少3.64亿年。为了应对这一挑战,我们建议在最容易受到持续高水平污染的地区征收最高的排放费,并对气候变化导致的未来空气质量恶化最敏感。
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引用次数: 1
Policy complementarity and the paradox of carbon pricing 政策互补性与碳定价悖论
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad045
Michael Grubb, Alexandra Poncia, Paul Drummond, Karsten Neuhoff, Jean-Charles Hourcade
We present an economics framework appropriate to the exceptionally broad scope of the climate change problem. This considers that economic and social processes, particularly those involved in purposive transitions of energy technologies and systems, involve the interplay between three distinct domains of decision-making and associated actors. The first concerns small-scale and often short-term decision-making, much of which reflects extensive ‘satisficing’ and habituation as identified in behavioural economics. Calculated economic optimization decisions, especially of companies in the energy and energy-intensive industries, then best reflect the core assumptions of neoclassical and welfare economics, including discrete market failures. Third, at the largest scale are strategic judgements made by big actors (e.g. governments, large multinational companies) relevant to transformation of complex systems over long periods—particularly concerning innovation and structural changes, for which lessons from theories of evolutionary and institutional economics are most relevant. Economically, these can be logically mapped in relation to the technology (or more accurately, ‘best practice’) frontier. Each has corresponding policy implications: most directly, respectively in terms of (i) standards and engagement to establish norms; (ii) competitive markets with the critical role of prices; and (iii) strategic investment in innovation and infrastructure. Each faces challenges of implementation and government failure, as observed, for example, with wholly inadequate carbon pricing to date, naïve and ineffective approaches to enhancing energy efficiency, or misdirected support to R&D. Based on the domain distinctions, we argue that the corresponding pillars of policy are naturally complementary, and can be mutually supportive: strong standards and norms on energy efficiency, for example, would enhance the political space for carbon pricing by reducing its direct consumer impacts, while carbon pricing has multiple positive two-way interactions with enhanced low-carbon innovation. From this we also posit a ‘carbon pricing paradox’: that adequate carbon prices, the central recommendation of most economists, are in most jurisdictions only feasible (or even optimal) if equal analytic and policy attention is devoted to the other pillars, and the wider context of macroeconomic and fiscal policies. Only these other aspects can reduce the absolute cost impact of carbon pricing (potentially turning into a gain) and offer consumers and businesses better lower-carbon alternatives, which are critical to establishing climate-compatible pricing structures across our economies.
我们提出了一个适用于气候变化问题异常广泛范围的经济学框架。它认为经济和社会进程,特别是那些涉及能源技术和系统的有目的过渡的进程,涉及决策的三个不同领域和相关行动者之间的相互作用。第一个问题涉及小规模且通常是短期的决策,其中大部分反映了行为经济学中确定的广泛的“满足”和习惯化。计算出的经济优化决策,尤其是能源和能源密集型行业的公司,最好地反映了新古典经济学和福利经济学的核心假设,包括离散的市场失灵。第三,在最大规模上,是由大型参与者(如政府、大型跨国公司)做出的战略判断,这些判断与长期复杂系统的转型有关,特别是与创新和结构变化有关,进化经济学和制度经济学的理论教训与此最为相关。从经济上讲,这些可以逻辑地映射到技术(或者更准确地说,“最佳实践”)前沿。每一个都有相应的政策影响:最直接的影响分别体现在:(1)标准和参与建立规范;(二)价格起关键作用的竞争市场;(三)创新和基础设施方面的战略投资。每个国家都面临着执行和政府失败的挑战,例如,迄今为止碳定价完全不充分,naïve和提高能源效率的无效方法,或对研发的错误支持。基于领域差异,我们认为相应的政策支柱是天然互补的,并且可以相互支持:例如,强有力的能效标准和规范将通过减少其对消费者的直接影响来增强碳定价的政治空间,而碳定价与加强低碳创新具有多种积极的双向互动。由此,我们还假设了一个“碳定价悖论”:大多数经济学家的核心建议——适当的碳价格,只有在对其他支柱以及宏观经济和财政政策的更广泛背景给予同等的分析和政策关注的情况下,在大多数司法管辖区才是可行的(甚至是最优的)。只有这些其他方面可以减少碳定价的绝对成本影响(可能转化为收益),并为消费者和企业提供更好的低碳替代品,这对于在我们的经济中建立气候相容的定价结构至关重要。
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引用次数: 1
Five myths about carbon pricing 关于碳定价的五大误区
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad042
Gilbert E Metcalf
While carbon pricing, in general, and carbon taxes, in particular, are popular with economists, they are subject to considerable misunderstanding among policy-makers and the public. In this paper I consider and refute five myths about carnbon taxes: (i) that a carbon price will hurt economic growth; (ii) that carbon pricing will kill jobs; (iii) that a carbon tax and cap-and-trade programme have the same economic impacts; (iv) that we can’t achieve carbon reduction targets with a carbon tax; and (v) that carbon pricing is regressive. I then discuss implications for policy-making.
虽然碳定价,特别是碳税,在经济学家中很受欢迎,但在政策制定者和公众中却存在相当大的误解。在本文中,我考虑并驳斥了关于碳税的五个迷思:(1)碳价将损害经济增长;(ii)碳定价将扼杀就业机会;(iii)碳税和限额与交易计划具有相同的经济影响;(iv)我们无法通过征收碳税实现碳减排目标;(五)碳定价是递减的。然后讨论对政策制定的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Greening the G7 economies 七国集团经济的绿化
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad039
Edward B Barbier
Despite some progress, the Group of 7 (G7) have yet to act collectively to foster a low-carbon transition of their economies. This paper outlines such a strategy, which would also encourage other economies to follow suit. This strategy has three elements: fossil fuel pricing reforms; recycling revenues to fund green innovation and to offset any adverse income or employment impacts; and developing the proposed G7 Climate Club to promote compliance by other countries. This must be accompanied by comprehensive assistance to emerging market and developing economies to help accelerate their clean energy transition, facilitate their participation in the Climate Club, and attain climate, poverty and development goals.
尽管取得了一些进展,但七国集团(G7)尚未采取集体行动,促进其经济向低碳转型。本文概述了这样一种战略,它也将鼓励其他经济体效仿。这一战略有三个要素:化石燃料定价改革;回收收入以资助绿色创新,并抵消任何不利的收入或就业影响;发展拟议中的七国集团气候俱乐部,以促进其他国家的遵守。这必须伴随着对新兴市场和发展中经济体的全面援助,帮助它们加速清洁能源转型,促进它们参与气候俱乐部,实现气候、贫困和发展目标。
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引用次数: 2
Job creation and deep decarbonization 创造就业和深度脱碳
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad038
Kelly Sims Gallagher, Soyoung Oh
This paper explores whether economic viability is the key to achieve deep decarbonization or net zero emissions. The hypothesis tested is that popular support for decarbonization policies is conditional upon most people’s belief that their economic well-being will improve, or at least not suffer with these policies. While GDP growth is the typical metric for economic health, a more useful socio-economic indicator for gauging the political viability of climate policies may be job creation. Specifically, the paper reviews the existing evidence about whether climate policies are more successful in achieving deep decarbonization in the long run if policy-makers include job creation as well as emissions reductions when designing and implementing climate policies, because, to date, climate policy-makers have often focused on emissions reductions as the primary criterion for policy choice. While empirical evidence remains thin, we find that job creation in low-carbon industries appears to lead to greater political support for the climate policies that contribute to decarbonization, but employment factors are not always the most salient factor in a voter’s decision. We also find empirical evidence that clean energy deployment policies, such as feed-in tariffs, have led to significant net gains in employment in the countries that have been studied. The review points to several policy implications, including the need to assess competitive advantage, develop plans, design and execute industrial policy, and develop a low-carbon workforce.
本文探讨了经济可行性是否是实现深度脱碳或净零排放的关键。经过检验的假设是,民众对脱碳政策的支持是有条件的,因为大多数人相信他们的经济福祉会得到改善,或者至少不会受到这些政策的影响。虽然GDP增长是衡量经济健康状况的典型指标,但衡量气候政策政治可行性的更有用的社会经济指标可能是创造就业机会。具体而言,如果政策制定者在设计和实施气候政策时既考虑创造就业机会,又考虑减排,那么从长远来看,气候政策是否能更成功地实现深度脱碳,本文对现有证据进行了回顾,因为迄今为止,气候政策制定者往往将减排作为政策选择的主要标准。虽然经验证据仍然薄弱,但我们发现,低碳行业创造的就业机会似乎会导致对有助于脱碳的气候政策的更大政治支持,但就业因素并不总是选民决定的最重要因素。我们还发现经验证据表明,清洁能源部署政策,如上网电价补贴,在被研究的国家导致了显著的就业净增长。该报告指出了若干政策含义,包括评估竞争优势、制定计划、设计和执行产业政策以及发展低碳劳动力的必要性。
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引用次数: 1
Sensitive intervention points: a strategic approach to climate action 敏感的干预点:气候行动的战略方针
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad043
Penny Mealy, Pete Barbrook-Johnson, Matthew C Ives, Sugandha Srivastav, Cameron Hepburn
While some countries are making progress reducing greenhouse gas emissions, few are progressing rapidly enough to be on track to reach net zero emissions by mid-century. The transition to net zero involves deep structural transformation of the global economy and its associated complex socio-technical systems. Here, we set out a conceptual framework to identify ‘sensitive intervention points’ (SIPs) in systems where a small or moderately-sized intervention could drive outsized impacts and transformational change. These points take three forms: (i) critical tipping points, such as a critical price threshold, (ii) critical nodes in networks, such as an influential actor in a social network, and (iii) critical points in time, where windows of opportunity for change open up. We also propose an assessment methodology for prioritizing interventions in terms of their potential impacts, risks, and ease of implementation. We apply our framework and assessment methodology to evaluate a list of proposed interventions for accelerating global decarbonization. Promising interventions include investing in key clean energy technologies with consistent cost declines, introducing central bank policies to reduce the value of polluting collateral, and enhancing climate-related financial risk disclosure.
虽然一些国家在减少温室气体排放方面取得了进展,但很少有国家进展迅速,能够在本世纪中叶走上实现净零排放的轨道。向净零排放的过渡涉及全球经济及其相关的复杂社会技术系统的深刻结构转型。在这里,我们提出了一个概念性框架,以确定系统中的“敏感干预点”(SIPs),在这些系统中,小规模或中等规模的干预可能会产生巨大的影响和转型变化。这些点有三种形式:(i)关键引爆点,如关键价格门槛;(ii)网络中的关键节点,如社交网络中有影响力的行动者;(iii)变革机会之窗打开的关键时间点。我们还提出了一种评估方法,根据干预措施的潜在影响、风险和实施的容易程度来确定干预措施的优先次序。我们应用我们的框架和评估方法来评估一系列旨在加速全球脱碳的拟议干预措施。有希望的干预措施包括投资于成本持续下降的关键清洁能源技术,引入中央银行政策以降低污染抵押品的价值,以及加强与气候相关的金融风险披露。
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引用次数: 2
Does a progressive wealth tax reduce top wealth inequality? Evidence from Switzerland 累进财富税能减少贫富差距吗?来自瑞士的证据
2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-18 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad025
Samira Marti, Isabel Z Martínez, Florian Scheuer
Abstract Like in many other countries, wealth inequality has increased in Switzerland over the last 50 years. By providing new evidence on cantonal top wealth shares for each of the 26 cantons since 1969, we show that the overall trend masks striking differences across cantons, both in levels and trends. Combining this with variation in cantonal wealth taxes, we then estimate an event study model to identify the dynamic effects of reforms to top wealth tax rates on the subsequent evolution of wealth concentration. Our results imply that a reduction in the top marginal wealth tax rate by 0.1 percentage points increases the top 1 per cent (0.1 per cent) wealth share by 0.9 (1.2) percentage points 5 years after the reform. This suggests that wealth tax cuts over the last 50 years explain roughly 18 per cent (25 per cent) of the increase in wealth concentration among the top 1 per cent (0.1 per cent).
与许多其他国家一样,瑞士的财富不平等在过去50年里有所加剧。通过提供自1969年以来26个州中每个州最高财富份额的新证据,我们表明,总体趋势掩盖了各州之间在水平和趋势上的显著差异。结合各州财富税的变化,我们估计了一个事件研究模型,以确定最高财富税率改革对财富集中后续演变的动态影响。我们的研究结果表明,最高边际财富税率每降低0.1个百分点,改革五年后,最富有的1%(0.1%)的财富份额就会增加0.9(1.2)个百分点。这表明,过去50年的财富税削减,可以解释最富有的1%人群财富集中度增长的大约18%(25%)。
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引用次数: 0
Rethinking capital and wealth taxation 重新思考资本和财富税
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-18 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad026
T. Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, G. Zucman
This paper reviews recent developments in the theory and practice of optimal capital taxation. We emphasize three main rationales for capital taxation. First, the frontier between capital and labour income flows is often fuzzy, thereby lending support to a broad-based, comprehensive income tax. Next, the very notions of income and consumption flows are difficult to define and measure for top wealth holders where capital gains due to asset price effects dwarf ordinary income and consumption flows. Therefore the proper way to tax billionaires is a progressive wealth tax. Finally, as individuals cannot choose their parents, there are strong meritocratic reasons why we should tax inherited wealth more than earned income or self-made wealth for which individuals can be held responsible, at least in part. This implies that the ideal fiscal system should also include a progressive inheritance tax, in addition to progressive income and wealth taxes. We then confront our prescriptions with historical experience. Although there are significant differences, we argue that observed fiscal systems in modern democracies bear important similarities with this ideal triptych.
本文综述了最优资本征税理论和实践的最新进展。我们强调资本税的三个主要理由。首先,资本和劳动收入流动之间的界限往往是模糊的,从而为广泛的综合所得税提供了支持。其次,收入和消费流动的概念很难定义和衡量,因为资产价格效应导致的资本收益使普通收入和消费流动相形见绌。因此,对亿万富翁征税的正确方式是累进财富税。最后,由于个人无法选择自己的父母,我们有充分的精英主义理由,为什么我们应该对继承的财富征税,而不是对个人可以承担(至少部分)责任的劳动收入或白手起家的财富征税。这意味着,除了累进所得税和财富税之外,理想的财政体系还应该包括累进遗产税。然后我们用历史经验来面对我们的处方。尽管存在显著差异,但我们认为,观察到的现代民主国家的财政制度与这一理想的三联画有着重要的相似之处。
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引用次数: 21
Taxing the wealthy: the choice between wealth and capital income taxation 对富人征税:财富和资本所得税之间的选择
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-18 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad030
S. Bastani, Daniel Waldenström
This paper analyses the relative merits of wealth and capital income taxes as instruments for taxing the rich. The main rationale for a wealth tax is to address the incompleteness of the tax code in taxing unrealized capital gains, which can be enormous and concentrated among the wealthy. However, by taxing presumed rather than actual returns, a wealth tax fails to address inequality among taxpayers with the same wealth but different capital incomes. In addition, wealth taxation creates liquidity problems that may adversely affect growth firms and start-ups, which is why wealth taxes typically provide exemptions and deductions for certain business assets. Our empirical analysis, based on Swedish register data, describes the wealth composition of the wealthiest and assesses the distributional incidence of different combinations of wealth and capital income taxation.
本文分析了财富和资本所得税作为向富人征税的工具的相对优点。财富税的主要理由是解决税法在对未实现资本收益征税方面的不完整性,这些资本收益可能巨大且集中在富人中。然而,财富税对假定回报而非实际回报征税,未能解决财富相同但资本收入不同的纳税人之间的不平等问题。此外,财富税造成了流动性问题,可能会对成长型公司和初创企业产生不利影响,这就是为什么财富税通常为某些商业资产提供豁免和扣除。我们的实证分析基于瑞典注册数据,描述了最富有者的财富构成,并评估了财富和资本所得税不同组合的分配发生率。
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引用次数: 1
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Oxford Review of Economic Policy
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