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From the Bretton Woods system to the global non-system: the trials and tribulations of slow learning 从布雷顿森林体系到全球非体系:缓慢学习的考验和磨难
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad017
D. Vines, Paola Subacchi
In this paper we analyse why an understanding of the global ‘non-system’, in which we now live, took so long to arrive after the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971. We first describe how knowledge of how an inflation-targeting regime would operate—what we call ‘Taylor-rule macroeconomics’—was only gradually created during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. We then describe how, subsequent to this, an awareness emerged, also gradually, of how the international non-system might work, depending, as it does, on Taylor-rule macroeconomics being already in place. We then discuss the Great Moderation, making clear that a well-functioning global non-system would require not just inflation targeting and floating exchange rates in each country, but also adequate fiscal discipline, and a satisfactory form of financial regulation. We describe how a well-functioning version of this global non-system would actually fit together. We then discuss how this non-system has responded to two enormous challenges of the last 15 years, namely the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid pandemic. This discussion of what has happened in the recent past provides the background to a discussion, in the companion paper by Subacchi and Vines in this issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy, of the challenges that the global non-system will face in the future.
在本文中,我们分析了为什么在1971年布雷顿森林体系崩溃后,人们花了这么长时间才理解我们现在所处的全球“非体系”。我们首先描述了通胀目标制如何运作的知识——我们称之为“泰勒规则宏观经济学”——在20世纪70年代、80年代和90年代才逐渐被创造出来。然后,我们描述了在此之后,人们如何逐渐意识到国际非体系如何运作,这取决于已经存在的泰勒规则宏观经济学。然后,我们讨论了大稳健,明确指出一个运作良好的全球非体系不仅需要每个国家的通胀目制制和浮动汇率,还需要充分的财政纪律和令人满意的金融监管形式。我们描述了一个运作良好的全球非系统是如何真正整合在一起的。然后,我们讨论了这一非体系如何应对过去15年的两大挑战,即全球金融危机和新冠肺炎大流行。苏巴奇和瓦因斯在本期《牛津经济政策评论》(Oxford Review of Economic Policy)的合著论文中讨论了全球非体系未来将面临的挑战,对最近发生的事情的讨论为这一讨论提供了背景。
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引用次数: 1
Avoiding a lost decade—sovereign debt workouts in the post-Covid era 避免失去的十年——在后新冠时代的主权债务重组
2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad015
Lee C Buchheit, Mitu Gulati
Journal Article Avoiding a lost decade—sovereign debt workouts in the post-Covid era Get access Lee C Buchheit, Lee C Buchheit Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Mitu Gulati Mitu Gulati mgulati@law.virginia.edu Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 39, Issue 2, Summer 2023, Pages 360–366, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grad015 Published: 11 April 2023
期刊文章避免失去的十年-后新冠时代的主权债务重组访问Lee C Buchheit, Lee C Buchheit搜索本文作者的其他作品:牛津学术谷歌学者Mitu Gulati Mitu Gulati mgulati@law.virginia.edu搜索本文作者的其他作品:牛津学术谷歌学者牛津经济政策评论,第39卷,第2期,2023年夏季,360-366页,https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grad015出版:2023年4月11日
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引用次数: 0
The political economy of carbon border adjustment in the EU 欧盟碳边界调整的政治经济学
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grac044
Michael Jakob
The European Commission has proposed a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to enable ambitious climate policies in EU member states and to incentivize emission reductions in other countries. This paper adopts a dynamic, multilevel, polycentric perspective to discuss how domestic as well as foreign interest groups would be affected by the policy. Our analysis yields three central insights. First, diplomatic efforts should be focused on a small number of countries that would be most severely affected by the CBAM. Second, the CBAM should be implemented as an enabler of domestic mitigation efforts in an open climate alliance instead of an attempt to extend EU climate policy to other countries. Third, gradually phasing in the CBAM while phasing out free emission permits for EU producers and supporting the transformation of carbon-intensive sectors in third countries can ease political opposition from domestic as well as foreign industries.
欧盟委员会提出了一个碳边界调整机制(CBAM),以实现欧盟成员国雄心勃勃的气候政策,并激励其他国家的减排。本文采用动态、多层次、多中心的视角来讨论国内外利益集团将如何受到该政策的影响。我们的分析得出了三个核心见解。首先,外交努力应集中在少数受《建立信任措施》影响最严重的国家。其次,CBAM应作为开放气候联盟中国内缓解努力的推动者来实施,而不是试图将欧盟气候政策扩展到其他国家。第三,逐步实施CBAM,同时逐步取消欧盟生产商的免费排放许可证,并支持第三国碳密集型行业的转型,可以缓解国内外行业的政治反对。
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引用次数: 2
Regulating Big Tech: the role of enhanced disclosures 监管大型科技公司:强化披露的作用
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grac040
M. Mazzucato, Ilan Strauss, Tim O'Reilly, Josh Ryan‐Collins
Attempts by governments to curb the market power of ‘Big Tech’ (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft) are impeded by limited public information on their diversified digital platform ecosystems. Big Tech’s annual 10-K financial reports disclose little about their globally dominant ‘free’ services, platform user numbers, and monetization practices, and suites of products. To support antitrust and regulatory oversight, we propose mandatory 10-K type disclosures covering Big Tech’s: (i) internally used operating metrics (e.g. monthly active users), which underpin platform market share and monetization; (ii) ubiquitous ‘free’ products which escape traditional ‘profit and loss’ reporting; (iii) ‘monetization’ processes detailing how platforms make money from user data and attention; and (iv) product-by-product reporting through updating segment reporting rules. Disclosures should be mandatory for digital ‘gatekeepers’ and eventually integrated into reporting standards for all digital platforms.
政府试图遏制“科技巨头”(Alphabet、亚马逊、苹果、Meta平台和微软)的市场力量,但由于其多元化的数字平台生态系统的公共信息有限,这些努力受到了阻碍。大型科技公司的年度10-K财务报告几乎没有披露它们在全球占主导地位的“免费”服务、平台用户数量、货币化实践和产品套件。为了支持反垄断和监管监督,我们建议强制性的10-K类型披露,涵盖大型科技公司:(i)内部使用的运营指标(例如月活跃用户),这是平台市场份额和货币化的基础;(ii)无所不在的“免费”产品,逃避传统的“损益”报告;(iii)“货币化”流程,详细说明平台如何从用户数据和关注中赚钱;(四)通过更新细分报告规则实现逐产品报告。数字“看门人”应该强制披露信息,并最终整合到所有数字平台的报告标准中。
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引用次数: 4
From theory to practice: determining emissions in traded goods under a border carbon adjustment 从理论到实践:确定边境碳调整下贸易商品的排放量
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grac043
M. Mehling, Robert A. Ritz
As part of its Green Deal, the European Union has advanced a ‘Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism’ (CBAM). Reflective of a trend towards greater use of coercive trade measures to advance environmental and other policy objectives, the CBAM would extend carbon pricing to imported goods with the aim of limiting carbon leakage. Theoretical enquiry into this type of policy approach—known as border carbon adjustments (BCAs)—suggests economic and environmental benefits, but typically discounts the role of legal and practical constraints on BCA design and implementation. In this paper, we show why the BCA design commonly featured in past research—basing the adjustment level on default carbon intensities—runs counter to the economic logic of carbon pricing by distorting the incentives for emissions abatement. Requiring producers to demonstrate their actual carbon intensity captures additional economic benefits of carbon pricing and improves the overall legal prospects of a BCA, but adds to its administrative complexity and creates risk of avoidance practices such as ‘resource shuffling’. What emerges is a more nuanced understanding of BCAs that highlights the challenges when transitioning from theory to practice.
作为绿色协议的一部分,欧盟提出了“碳边界调整机制”(CBAM)。CBAM将把碳定价扩展到进口商品,以限制碳泄漏,这反映了更多地使用强制性贸易措施来推进环境和其他政策目标的趋势。对这种被称为边界碳调整(BCA)的政策方法的理论研究表明了经济和环境效益,但通常忽略了BCA设计和实施中法律和实践限制的作用。在本文中,我们展示了为什么在过去的研究中常见的BCA设计——基于默认碳强度的调整水平——扭曲了减排的激励机制,与碳定价的经济逻辑背道而驰。要求生产者证明其实际的碳强度可以获得碳定价的额外经济效益,并改善BCA的整体法律前景,但增加了其管理复杂性,并产生了规避诸如“资源洗牌”等做法的风险。对bca的理解更加细致入微,强调了从理论到实践的转变所面临的挑战。
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引用次数: 4
Competition, trade, and sustainability in agriculture and food markets in Africa 非洲农业和粮食市场的竞争、贸易和可持续性
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grac041
S. Roberts
Food and agriculture accounts for around one-third of global emissions reflecting the effects of consumption in high-income countries on production and land use around the world. These effects include those transmitted through international trade such as in the constituents of animal feed for meat. African countries face a dual challenge of adapting to the growing effects of climate change in the shape of extreme weather, and increasing agriculture and food production as part of developing their economies. At the same time, there is increasing concentration in the production and trading of agriculture and food products, globally and within Africa. This article considers the interaction of concentration and responses to climate change in food markets through a focus on meat and animal feed, and the developments in maize and soybeans in East and Southern Africa. The possible role for competition policy as part of a wider reform agenda is proposed.
粮食和农业约占全球排放量的三分之一,反映出高收入国家的消费对全球生产和土地使用的影响。这些影响包括通过国际贸易传播的影响,例如肉类动物饲料的成分。非洲国家面临着双重挑战,一方面要适应气候变化带来的日益严重的极端天气影响,另一方面要在发展经济的过程中增加农业和粮食生产。与此同时,在全球和非洲内部,农业和粮食产品的生产和贸易日益集中。本文通过对肉类和动物饲料的关注,以及东非和南部非洲玉米和大豆的发展,考虑了粮食市场中集中度和对气候变化的反应之间的相互作用。有人提出了竞争政策作为更广泛改革议程的一部分可能发挥的作用。
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引用次数: 1
Tax progressivity and taxing the rich in developing countries: lessons from Latin America. 发展中国家的累进税制和对富人征税:拉丁美洲的经验教训
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-08-18 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad029
Marcelo Bergolo, Juliana Londoño-Vélez, Darío Tortarolo

This article discusses the challenges and potential policy choices for levying progressive taxes and taxing the rich in Latin America, a region known for its high-income inequality, limited tax-collection capacity, and low share of taxes collected from personal income and wealth. Factors such as high exemption thresholds, low top marginal tax rates, and limited administrative capacity undermine the redistributive ability and revenue collection of the tax systems in the region. Moreover, the income composition for the top percentiles largely comes from capital, and the effective tax rates they face are often low due to the preferential treatment of capital income and wealth. After discussing the evidence of how the rich in Latin America respond to progressive taxes on income and wealth and changes in enforcement policy, we provide some insights on potential policy choices to tax them effectively. These may include broadening the income tax base by lowering the number of exempt and non-taxable income items and the statutory exemption thresholds, reevaluating preferential tax rates on capital income, monitoring foreign income, addressing the abuse of tax treatment by business earners, and enhancing tax administration capacity. Additionally, wealth taxes may complement the tax system with updates to property registers and scrutiny of foreign assets.

本文讨论了在拉丁美洲征收累进税和向富人征税的挑战和潜在的政策选择。拉丁美洲以高收入不平等、税收征收能力有限以及从个人收入和财富中征收的税收份额低而闻名。高免税门槛、低最高边际税率和有限的行政能力等因素破坏了该地区税收系统的再分配能力和税收。此外,最高百分位数的收入构成主要来自资本,由于资本收入和财富的优惠待遇,他们面临的实际税率往往较低。在讨论了拉丁美洲富人如何应对收入和财富累进税以及执法政策变化的证据后,我们对有效征税的潜在政策选择提供了一些见解。这些措施可能包括通过降低免税和非应税收入项目的数量和法定免税门槛来扩大所得税基础,重新评估资本收入的优惠税率,监测外国收入,解决企业收入者滥用税收待遇的问题,以及提高税务管理能力。此外,财富税可以通过更新财产登记和审查外国资产来补充税收制度。
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引用次数: 0
Cross-border data flows and privacy in global trade law: has trade trumped data protection? 全球贸易法中的跨境数据流动和隐私:贸易是否胜过数据保护?
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grac042
Mira Burri
This article is set against the complex backdrop of the evolution of the data-driven economy and its regulation, and seeks to provide a better contextualization of the topic of data protection as a matter of trade law. It looks at the recent proliferation of rules on data flows, specifically addressed in free trade agreements (FTAs), at how data protection has been framed in these treaties, as well as at the available reconciliation mechanisms developed to interface trade and privacy. The article explores the most advanced models that have been developed in this regard so far, with a focus on some US-led and EU-led treaties. These analyses build the basis for testing the conjecture as to whether trade law has gone too fast and too deep, encroaching on domestic privacy law developments that unfold at a much slower pace.
本文以数据驱动经济及其监管演变的复杂背景为背景,试图更好地将数据保护作为贸易法问题。它着眼于最近自由贸易协定中具体涉及的数据流动规则的激增,这些条约中如何制定数据保护,以及为将贸易和隐私联系起来而开发的现有协调机制。本文探讨了迄今为止在这方面发展起来的最先进的模式,重点介绍了一些美国和欧盟主导的条约。这些分析为检验贸易法是否发展得太快、太深,侵犯了以慢得多的速度展开的国内隐私法发展的猜测奠定了基础。
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引用次数: 3
Market power of digital platforms 数字平台的市场力量
2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grac045
Jens-Uwe Franck, Martin Peitz
Abstract Digital platforms have reshaped many product markets and play an increasingly important role in economies around the globe. Some of these platforms have become powerful players and may possess a lot of market power. Economists use a number of indicators to assess market power. In this article we discuss to which extent these indicators are helpful in the context of digital platforms. In particular, we focus on assessing entrenched market power and the role of potential competition to constrain this power. Finally, we discuss some cross-border issues of platform market power.
数字平台重塑了许多产品市场,在全球经济中发挥着越来越重要的作用。其中一些平台已经成为强大的玩家,可能拥有很大的市场力量。经济学家使用一些指标来评估市场力量。在本文中,我们将讨论这些指标在数字平台背景下的帮助程度。特别是,我们着重于评估根深蒂固的市场力量和潜在竞争的作用,以限制这种力量。最后,我们讨论了平台市场力量的一些跨境问题。
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引用次数: 4
Digital disruption: artificial intelligence and international trade policy 数字颠覆:人工智能与国际贸易政策
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grac049
Emily Jones
Digitalization of the global economy is occurring apace and has spurred a new wave of trade negotiations, as governments and technology firms vie to establish international rules and standards for the digital era. This article examines the ways that trade policy-makers are responding to artificial intelligence (AI), arguably the most disruptive of the new digital technologies. In a digitalized global economy, trade rules have implications for AI innovation, uptake, and governance, yet existing trade rules have significant shortcomings and need updating in order to assist with effective AI governance. Updating is happening but, so far, the changes focus on promoting AI and disproportionately reflect the interests of large technology firms, the major innovators and owners of AI. New digital trade rules include stringent intellectual property protections for source code and algorithms, and strong commitments to enable the free flow of data across borders. However, much less progress has been made in addressing cross-border risks and harms associated with AI, in areas such as competition policy; ethical, transparent, and accountable use of AI; personal data protection; and protections against the exploitative use of algorithms in consumer and labour markets.
随着各国政府和科技公司争相为数字时代制定国际规则和标准,全球经济的数字化正在迅速发展,并引发了新一轮贸易谈判。这篇文章探讨了贸易政策制定者对人工智能的反应方式,人工智能可以说是最具破坏性的新数字技术。在数字化的全球经济中,贸易规则对人工智能的创新、吸收和治理具有影响,但现有的贸易规则存在重大缺陷,需要更新,以帮助有效的人工智能治理。更新正在进行,但到目前为止,这些变化侧重于促进人工智能,并不成比例地反映了大型科技公司、人工智能的主要创新者和所有者的利益。新的数字贸易规则包括对源代码和算法的严格知识产权保护,以及实现数据跨境自由流动的坚定承诺。然而,在应对与人工智能相关的跨境风险和危害方面,在竞争政策等领域取得的进展要少得多;人工智能的道德、透明和负责任的使用;个人资料保护;以及防止在消费者和劳动力市场上利用算法。
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引用次数: 2
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Oxford Review of Economic Policy
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