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The messy boundary between pass-through and corporate taxation 传递税和公司税之间的混乱界限
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-18 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad034
W. Kopczuk
Businesses may be subject to either individual income taxes or entity-level taxes. Policy choices surrounding the boundary between these taxes can and do vary between countries and over time. I discuss the need for and implications of the existence of this boundary for behaviour, economic measurement, and policy.
企业可能需要缴纳个人所得税或实体税。围绕这些税种边界的政策选择在不同国家和不同时期可能也确实有所不同。我讨论了行为、经济衡量和政策存在这一边界的必要性和含义。
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引用次数: 1
How much tax do the rich really pay? Evidence from the UK 富人真正要交多少税?来自英国的证据
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-18 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad032
A. Advani, H. Hughson, A. Summers
Using anonymized administrative data on the population of UK taxpayers, we show that—in line with high-profile anecdotes about the tax affairs of the rich—effective average tax rates (EATRs) decline at the top of the distribution of income and capital gains. We also document substantial variation in EATRs within remuneration level: a quarter of those in the top 1 per cent pay headline rates, while another quarter pay at least 9pp less than the headline rate. Most of this effect is driven by the composition of remuneration, with investment income having lower tax rates and capital gains having lower rates still. If all individuals with income above £100,000 paid the headline rates, this would raise tax revenue on income and gains by £23 billion on a static basis, an increase of 27 per cent in the tax paid by this group.
利用英国纳税人人口的匿名管理数据,我们表明,与有关富人税务事务的引人注目的轶事一致,有效平均税率(eatr)在收入和资本收益分配的顶部下降。我们还记录了薪酬水平内的eatr存在巨大差异:收入最高的1%人群中,有四分之一的人支付总体薪酬,而另外四分之一的人的薪酬至少比总体薪酬低9%。这种影响在很大程度上是由薪酬构成驱动的,投资收入的税率较低,资本利得的税率更低。如果所有收入超过10万英镑的个人都按总体税率纳税,这将使收入和收益的税收收入在静态基础上增加230亿英镑,这一群体缴纳的税收将增加27%。
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引用次数: 3
Would an unapportioned US federal wealth tax be constitutional, and what does that mean? 不按比例分配的美国联邦财富税是否符合宪法?这意味着什么?
2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-18 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad021
Daniel Shaviro
Abstract To assess the constitutionality of an unapportioned federal wealth tax, and/or of a federal income tax provision reaching wealthy taxpayers’ unrealized gains, one needs an underlying framework for making judgements about legal claims. While no such framework can be entirely specified, at least to general agreement, this does not support nihilistically rejecting all comparative judgements about better versus worse, or more versus less convincing, instances of legal analysis. While it appears nearly certain that the Supreme Court’s current right-wing majority would strike down an unapportioned federal wealth tax, the ‘correct’ answer to this constitutional question cannot be proven to general agreement. I myself would disagree with such a holding by the Court. An important variable in resolving the issue for oneself is how much continuing precedential weight one should give to Pollock v. Farmers’ Loan & Trust Co.—a case that itself blatantly disrespected precedent, but that did so more than a century ago, and that (on the other hand) some argue has already ceased to be good law. The principle of respecting precedent both has instrumental value and has been long (if fitfully) honoured within the American legal system, but all agree that its weight is not absolute. An unapportioned minimum income tax on the wealthiest Americans that included in income their unrealized capital gains would likely be constitutional under currently prevalent legal doctrine. It is true, however, that Eisner v. Macomber (1920), if it were held to remain good law beyond its immediate facts, would support holding it unconstitutional. The prospect that the current Supreme Court’s six right-wingers will decide to revive Macomber provides only one reason for suspecting that they might strike down such a provision, perhaps while also launching a broader constitutional war against central tenets of the current regime for taxing wealthy individuals and capital income. However, it lies beyond the power of conventional legal analysis to predict either what form such a war would take, or on what terms it might end up being resolved.
摘要为了评估未分配的联邦财富税和/或联邦所得税条款对富有纳税人未实现收益的合宪性,人们需要一个基本框架来判断法律主张。虽然没有这样的框架可以完全指定,至少在一般协议下,这并不支持虚无主义地拒绝所有关于更好与更坏,或更多与更少令人信服的法律分析实例的比较判断。虽然最高法院目前的右翼多数派几乎肯定会否决一项未分配的联邦财富税,但这个宪法问题的“正确”答案无法得到普遍认同。我本人不同意法院的这种裁决。自己解决这个问题的一个重要变量是,人们应该给波洛克诉农民贷款案多少持续的优先权。这一案件本身就公然违反了先例,但这是一个多世纪以前的事了,而且(另一方面)一些人认为它已经不再是好的法律。尊重先例的原则不仅具有实用价值,而且在美国法律体系中长期受到尊重(虽然断断续续),但所有人都同意,它的重要性不是绝对的。根据目前流行的法律原则,对最富有的美国人征收未分配的最低所得税,将他们未实现的资本收益包括在收入中,可能符合宪法。然而,艾斯纳诉麦康伯案(1920)如果被认为是超越其直接事实的好法律,将支持将其认定为违宪。目前最高法院的六名右翼人士将决定恢复麦康伯法案,这一前景只提供了一个理由,让人怀疑他们可能会否决这样一项条款,也许同时还会发起一场更广泛的宪法战争,反对现行制度对富人和资本收入征税的核心原则。然而,传统的法律分析无法预测这样一场战争将采取何种形式,或者最终以何种条件得到解决。
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引用次数: 0
European monetary regimes after the fall of Bretton Woods: a political economy approach 布雷顿森林体系崩溃后的欧洲货币制度:一种政治经济学方法
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad003
Giovanni Farese, Paolo Guerrieri, Pierre Carlo Padoan
After the fall of the Bretton Woods system, the EU initiated an original path towards monetary integration which led to the establishment of the European monetary system (EMS) in the 1980s and the economic monetary union (EMU) in the 1990s. This path was an alternative to the floating exchange rate regime which many other countries decided to follow. Adopting a political economy approach, in this paper we reconstruct the main phases of this process, from the 1970s up until today, arguing that they cannot be explained only in terms of costs and benefits of alternative exchange rate configuration, but should consider political as well as economic factors—both domestic and international ones—and the interaction between European monetary and real integration. Ultimately, the predominance of political factors led to an underestimation of the economic difficulties generated by the coexistence of irrevocable exchange rates and full capital mobility. We suggest that new policy instruments and institutional changes are needed to make the common currency workable in the long run. The mandatory path should be towards a more deeply integrated Europe. Such integration is essential to enable the European monetary union to confront with future challenges.
布雷顿森林体系垮台后,欧盟开启了一条通往货币一体化的原始道路,导致了20世纪80年代欧洲货币体系(EMS)和90年代经济货币联盟(EMU)的建立。这条道路是许多其他国家决定采用的浮动汇率制度的替代方案。在本文中,我们采用政治经济学的方法,重建了从20世纪70年代到今天这一过程的主要阶段,认为不能仅从替代汇率配置的成本和收益来解释这些阶段,但应该考虑政治和经济因素——包括国内和国际因素——以及欧洲货币与实际一体化之间的相互作用。最终,政治因素占主导地位,导致低估了不可撤销的汇率和资本充分流动并存所产生的经济困难。我们建议,需要新的政策工具和体制改革,使共同货币从长远来看可行。强制性的道路应该是建立一个更加一体化的欧洲。这种一体化对于欧洲货币联盟应对未来挑战至关重要。
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引用次数: 1
Longer-term structural transitions and short-term macroeconomic adjustment: quantitative implications for the global financial system 长期结构转型和短期宏观经济调整:对全球金融体系的数量影响
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad004
Warwick McKibbin, D. Vines
This paper provides quantitative modelling of the effect of three longer-term global transitions: the global demographic transition involving a marked reduction in population growth; a long-term slowdown in productivity growth which may continue, or may conceivably be reversed; and the disruption in the global economy due to increasing climate shocks and the implementation of climate policies that will be needed to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. We study the global investment needs to which these transitions will lead. We demonstrate that these investment needs will be both asymmetric across countries and over time. This asymmetry will lead to potentially large changes in trade flows and significant financial capital flows across national borders, and also to substantial real exchange changes and interest rate movements. The resulting large movements in international capital flows will have significant implications for the global financial system, which we demonstrate at the country and regional level.
本文提供了三个较长期全球转变影响的定量模型:涉及人口增长显著减少的全球人口转变;生产率增长的长期放缓,这种放缓可能会持续下去,也有可能逆转;气候冲击的增加和气候政策的实施对全球经济造成的破坏,而这些政策是到2050年实现净零排放所需的。我们研究了这些转变将导致的全球投资需求。我们证明,这些投资需求在不同国家和不同时期都是不对称的。这种不对称将导致贸易流动和重大跨境金融资本流动的潜在巨大变化,也会导致实质性的实际汇率变化和利率变动。由此产生的国际资本流动的大规模流动将对全球金融体系产生重大影响,我们将在国家和地区层面证明这一点。
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引用次数: 2
Fifty years on: what the Bretton Woods System can teach us about global macroeconomic policy-making 50年过去了:布雷顿森林体系对全球宏观经济决策的启示
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad016
Paola Subacchi, D. Vines
This paper first describes the Bretton Woods system: its origin, what it was meant to achieve, and why it collapsed. We then describe the emergence of the global non-system in which inflation targeting has replaced full-employment Keynesianism and floating exchange rates have replaced the Bretton Woods set-up of fixed but adjustable exchange rates. We describe how the Bretton Woods system set about achieving the three objectives laid down for a well-functioning international economic system by John Maynard Keynes: full employment without inflation, sustainable current account balances between countries, and a sustainable flow of international financial capital—on the understanding that an open trading regime is also fostered. Because the global non-system is now very different from the Bretton Woods system, Keynes’s objectives now need to be achieved in a very different manner. Looking forward, this non-system faces a number of longer-term challenges. Important adjustment issues will arise in relation to the global demographic transition; the potential long-term slowdown in productivity growth; and the rise in investment in renewable sources of energy which will be necessary to help ensure that the world is able to move towards zero emissions of carbon by 2050. We also discuss important policy issues in relation to the flows of international capital to emerging market economies, and the likely need for a sovereign debt reconstruction mechanism. We then go on to consider two significant structural changes to the world—the emergence of the European Monetary Union and the rise of China. A final section of the paper considers the importance of leadership in this global non-system.
本文首先描述了布雷顿森林体系:它的起源,它的目的是什么,以及它崩溃的原因。然后,我们描述了全球非体系的出现,在这种体系中,通胀目定制取代了充分就业的凯恩斯主义,浮动汇率取代了布雷顿森林体系中固定但可调整的汇率。我们描述了布雷顿森林体系如何着手实现约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯为一个运转良好的国际经济体系设定的三个目标:没有通货膨胀的充分就业,国家间可持续的经常账户平衡,以及国际金融资本的可持续流动,前提是要促进开放的贸易体制。由于全球非体系现在与布雷顿森林体系大不相同,凯恩斯的目标现在需要以一种非常不同的方式来实现。展望未来,这种非系统将面临许多长期挑战。在全球人口转变方面将出现重要的调整问题;生产率增长可能长期放缓;增加对可再生能源的投资,这将有助于确保世界能够在2050年前实现零碳排放。我们还讨论了与国际资本向新兴市场经济体流动有关的重要政策问题,以及建立主权债务重组机制的可能必要性。然后,我们将继续考虑世界的两个重大结构性变化——欧洲货币联盟的出现和中国的崛起。论文的最后一部分考虑了领导力在这个全球非系统中的重要性。
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引用次数: 1
Overcoming ‘original sin’ to secure policy space 克服“原罪”,确保政策空间
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad018
H. Shin
More than two decades after the emerging market crises of the 1990s, foreign investors are now active investors in emerging-market local-currency-denominated sovereign bonds. In this sense, emerging market governments have overcome ‘Original Sin’—the dictum that emerging market borrowers cannot borrow from foreigners in their own currency. However, although the borrowers no longer bear the risk of currency mismatches, the mismatch has migrated to the lenders’ balance sheet in the sense that investors evaluate gains and losses in terms of dollars or other major currencies. This paper examines the associated risks and potential remedies to financial stability risks stemming from this migration of currency mismatch from the borrower to the lender.
20世纪90年代新兴市场危机发生20多年后,外国投资者现在是新兴市场本币计价主权债券的积极投资者。从这个意义上说,新兴市场政府已经克服了“原罪”,即新兴市场借款人不能用本国货币向外国人借款。然而,尽管借款人不再承担货币错配的风险,但错配已经转移到贷款人的资产负债表中,因为投资者以美元或其他主要货币来评估收益和损失。本文研究了货币错配从借款人向贷款人转移所产生的金融稳定风险的相关风险和潜在补救措施。
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引用次数: 4
How will digital technologies influence the international monetary system? 数字技术将如何影响国际货币体系?
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad011
New and evolving financial technologies, including the advent of cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), will make cross-border payments cheaper and quicker. However, reduced frictions in global capital flows could also result in more capital flow and exchange rate volatility, which is of particular concern for emerging market economies. There will be greater competition among fiat currencies and certain private currencies such as stablecoins in their roles as mediums of exchange for payment and settlement of domestic as well as cross-border transactions. However, neither the advent of CBDCs nor the lowering of barriers to international financial flows will do much on their own to reorder the international monetary system or the balance of power among major currencies. Currencies such as the US dollar that are dominant stores of value will remain so because that dominance rests not just on the issuing country’s economic size and financial market depth, but also on a strong institutional foundation that is essential for maintaining investors’ trust in a currency.
新的和不断发展的金融技术,包括加密货币和央行数字货币(CBDC)的出现,将使跨境支付变得更便宜、更快。然而,全球资本流动摩擦的减少也可能导致更多的资本流动和汇率波动,这是新兴市场经济体特别关注的问题。法定货币和稳定币等某些私人货币作为国内和跨境交易的支付和结算的交换媒介,将面临更大的竞争。然而,无论是CBDC的出现还是国际金融流动壁垒的降低,都不会对国际货币体系或主要货币之间的力量平衡产生太大影响。美元等货币是主要的价值存储工具,它们将保持这种状态,因为这种主导地位不仅取决于发行国的经济规模和金融市场深度,还取决于强大的制度基础,这对保持投资者对货币的信任至关重要。
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引用次数: 1
Lessons from the 1970s for international monetary reform 20世纪70年代国际货币改革的经验教训
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad001
Barry Eichengreen
The collapse of the Bretton Woods System in 1971–3 led to ambitious efforts to reform the international monetary system, mainly through the deliberations of the Committee of Twenty (C-20). Many of the issues considered by the C-20 will be familiar to aficionados of twenty-first century discussions of international monetary reform. Ultimately, attempts to reach a consensus in the C-20 were unsuccessful. This paper seeks to identify explanations for that failure in an effort to limit the likelihood that it will be repeated.
布雷顿森林体系在1971-3年的崩溃导致了改革国际货币体系的雄心勃勃的努力,主要是通过二十国委员会(C-20)的审议。C-20考虑的许多问题对于21世纪国际货币改革讨论的爱好者来说都很熟悉。最终,试图在C-20中达成共识的努力没有成功。本文试图找出失败的原因,以限制失败再次发生的可能性。
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引用次数: 2
Development finance cooperation amidst great power competition: what role for the World Bank? 大国竞争中的发展金融合作:世界银行扮演什么角色?
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad006
Scott A. Morris
The World Bank today faces parallel challenges to its operations and governance. The institution has since its founding provided financing on favourable terms to developing country governments to support national development efforts. Alongside these country demands, there are now calls for a new set of mandates and activities associated with global public goods. Advocates would have the Bank allocate large sums toward climate mitigation, pandemic response and preparedness, and other activities that may or may not align with national priorities in developing countries. The ability of the World Bank to strike an appropriate balance between country demands and global goods depends on the institution’s shareholders. Yet, the deterioration in the bilateral relationship between the United States and China now threatens to undermine effective governance at the institution. This paper considers the challenge of competing demands on World Bank resources and the degree to which a resolution could depend on an agreement between the United States and China, one that sets the strategic direction of the institution and addresses the growing impasse on the question of China’s shareholding in the Bank.
世界银行今天面临着其业务和治理方面的平行挑战。该机构自成立以来一直以优惠条件向发展中国家政府提供资金,以支持国家发展努力。除了这些国家的要求外,现在还有人呼吁制定一套与全球公共产品相关的新任务和活动。倡导者将要求世界银行拨出大笔资金用于气候缓解、疫情应对和准备,以及其他可能与发展中国家国家优先事项相一致或不一致的活动。世界银行在国家需求和全球商品之间取得适当平衡的能力取决于该机构的股东。然而,美中双边关系的恶化现在有可能破坏该机构的有效治理。本文考虑了对世界银行资源的竞争性需求的挑战,以及决议在多大程度上取决于美国和中国之间的协议,该协议确定了世界银行的战略方向,并解决了中国在世界银行持股问题上日益陷入僵局的问题。
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引用次数: 1
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Oxford Review of Economic Policy
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