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Digital disruption: artificial intelligence and international trade policy 数字颠覆:人工智能与国际贸易政策
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grac049
Emily Jones
Digitalization of the global economy is occurring apace and has spurred a new wave of trade negotiations, as governments and technology firms vie to establish international rules and standards for the digital era. This article examines the ways that trade policy-makers are responding to artificial intelligence (AI), arguably the most disruptive of the new digital technologies. In a digitalized global economy, trade rules have implications for AI innovation, uptake, and governance, yet existing trade rules have significant shortcomings and need updating in order to assist with effective AI governance. Updating is happening but, so far, the changes focus on promoting AI and disproportionately reflect the interests of large technology firms, the major innovators and owners of AI. New digital trade rules include stringent intellectual property protections for source code and algorithms, and strong commitments to enable the free flow of data across borders. However, much less progress has been made in addressing cross-border risks and harms associated with AI, in areas such as competition policy; ethical, transparent, and accountable use of AI; personal data protection; and protections against the exploitative use of algorithms in consumer and labour markets.
随着各国政府和科技公司争相为数字时代制定国际规则和标准,全球经济的数字化正在迅速发展,并引发了新一轮贸易谈判。这篇文章探讨了贸易政策制定者对人工智能的反应方式,人工智能可以说是最具破坏性的新数字技术。在数字化的全球经济中,贸易规则对人工智能的创新、吸收和治理具有影响,但现有的贸易规则存在重大缺陷,需要更新,以帮助有效的人工智能治理。更新正在进行,但到目前为止,这些变化侧重于促进人工智能,并不成比例地反映了大型科技公司、人工智能的主要创新者和所有者的利益。新的数字贸易规则包括对源代码和算法的严格知识产权保护,以及实现数据跨境自由流动的坚定承诺。然而,在应对与人工智能相关的跨境风险和危害方面,在竞争政策等领域取得的进展要少得多;人工智能的道德、透明和负责任的使用;个人资料保护;以及防止在消费者和劳动力市场上利用算法。
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引用次数: 2
Building trust in digital trade will require a rethink of trade policy-making 建立对数字贸易的信任需要重新思考贸易决策
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grac046
S. Aaronson
In 2019, Shinzo Abe, then Prime Minister of Japan, stated that if the world wanted to achieve the benefits of the data-driven economy, members of the World Trade Organization should find a common approach to combining ‘data free flow with trust’. However, he never explained what these rules should look like and how nations might find an internationally accepted approach to such rules. In this paper, I argue that trade policy-makers must pay closer attention to users’ concerns if they truly want to achieve ‘data free flow with trust’. I begin with an examination of what the most recent digital trade/ecommerce agreements say about trust and discuss whether they actually meet user concerns. Next, I turn to three different examples of online problems that users have expressed concerns about, namely internet shutdowns/censorship, disinformation, and ransomware, describing how these may yield both trade distortions and less trust online. I argue that policy-makers should address these issues if they believe trade agreements should build trust in cross-border data flows. Moreover, I argue how policy-makers respond to user concerns is as important as what they include in trade agreements. Finally, I note that trade negotiators will need to rethink how they involve the broad public in digital trade policy-making, while recognizing that trade policy agreements may not be the best place to address these problems.
2019年,时任日本首相安倍晋三表示,如果世界想要从数据驱动型经济中获益,世界贸易组织成员国应该找到一种将“数据自由流动与信任”结合起来的共同方法。然而,他从未解释这些规则应该是什么样子,以及各国如何找到一种国际上接受的方法来执行这些规则。在本文中,我认为,如果贸易政策制定者真正想要实现“有信任的数据自由流动”,就必须更加关注用户的担忧。我首先考察了最新的数字贸易/电子商务协议对信任的看法,并讨论了它们是否真正满足了用户的需求。接下来,我将转向用户表达担忧的三个不同的网络问题例子,即互联网关闭/审查、虚假信息和勒索软件,并描述这些问题如何导致贸易扭曲和网络信任减少。我认为,如果政策制定者认为贸易协定应该建立对跨境数据流的信任,他们就应该解决这些问题。此外,我认为政策制定者如何回应用户的担忧与他们在贸易协定中纳入什么内容同样重要。最后,我指出,贸易谈判代表需要重新思考如何让广大公众参与数字贸易政策制定,同时认识到贸易政策协定可能不是解决这些问题的最佳场所。
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引用次数: 4
Trading in the era of carbon standards: how can trade, standard setting, and climate regimes cooperate? 碳标准时代的贸易:贸易、标准制定和气候机制如何合作?
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grac039
Aik Hoe Lim, Kateryna Holzer
Regulatory cooperation is indispensable for increasing the quality of carbon-related product regulations and standards (CPRS), reducing trade tensions over them, facilitating their alignment, and, eventually, promoting the convergence of different national emission reduction levels towards a universal carbon price. In this article, we explore how trade and trade-related arrangements and institutions can be used to intensify regulatory cooperation on CPRS. We focus on the following questions: when, where, and how does regulatory cooperation on CPRS take place within the international trading system, and what are the ways to strengthen regulatory cooperation on CPRS? While admitting the key role of market forces and the large market factor in the alignment of carbon standards, we argue that this de facto trade-driven alignment requires a steering from state-to-state regulatory cooperation, as well as cooperation of government agencies with private certification schemes in helping producers, especially from developing countries, to comply. Moreover, the potential for more systematic collaboration between the multilateral institutions for climate change and trade should be explored. This could include the establishment of a joint UNFCCC–WTO forum for the exchange of policy-relevant technical and scientific information on key issues surrounding CPRS and consolidation of the relevant database.
监管合作对于提高碳相关产品法规和标准(CPRS)的质量、减少围绕这些法规和标准的贸易紧张局势、促进其一致性以及最终促进不同国家减排水平朝着普遍碳价格的方向趋同至关重要。在这篇文章中,我们探讨了如何利用贸易和与贸易有关的安排和机构来加强CPRS的监管合作。我们关注以下问题:在国际贸易体系中,何时、何地、如何开展CPRS监管合作,以及如何加强CPRS监管协作?在承认市场力量和大市场因素在碳标准调整中的关键作用的同时,我们认为,这种事实上的贸易驱动的调整需要从国家到国家的监管合作,以及政府机构与私人认证计划的合作,以帮助生产商,特别是发展中国家的生产商遵守。此外,应探讨多边气候变化和贸易机构之间进行更系统合作的潜力。这可能包括建立一个《气候公约》-世贸组织联合论坛,交流关于《气候变化框架公约》关键问题的政策相关技术和科学信息,并合并相关数据库。
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引用次数: 1
Expanding capacity for vaccines against Covid-19 and future pandemics: a review of economic issues 扩大Covid-19和未来大流行疫苗的能力:对经济问题的回顾
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-14 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grac037
Susan Athey, Juan Camilo Castillo, Esha Chaudhuri, Michael Kremer, Alexandre Simoes Gomes, Christopher M Snyder
We review economic arguments for using public policy to accelerate vaccine supply during a pandemic. Rapidly vaccinating a large share of the global population helps avoid economic, mortality, and social losses, which in the case of Covid-19 mounted into trillions of dollars. However, pharmaceutical firms are unlikely to have private incentives to invest in vaccine capacity at the socially optimal scale and speed. The socially optimal level of public spending may cause some sticker shock but—as epitomized by the tagline ‘spending billions to save trillions’—is eclipsed by the benefits and can be restrained with the help of careful policy design and advance preparations. Capacity is so valuable during a pandemic that fractional dosing and other measures to stretch available capacity should be explored.
我们回顾了在大流行期间使用公共政策加速疫苗供应的经济论据。迅速为全球大部分人口接种疫苗有助于避免经济、死亡率和社会损失,在Covid-19的情况下,这些损失高达数万亿美元。然而,制药公司不太可能有私人动机以社会最优的规模和速度投资疫苗能力。社会上最优的公共支出水平可能会引起一些“价目表上的震惊”,但正如“花费数十亿美元,节省数万亿美元”的口号所概括的那样,它的好处使其黯然失色,并可以在精心的政策设计和提前准备的帮助下得到控制。在大流行期间,能力非常宝贵,因此应探索分次给药和其他延长现有能力的措施。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal allocation of vaccines in a pandemic 大流行期间疫苗的最佳配置
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-14 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grac027
Joshua S Gans
This paper provides an overview of approaches to the allocation of scarce vaccine doses during a pandemic. Price and non-price methods are outlined to determine whom to prioritize. It is argued that depending on viral and vaccine properties, it may be superior to use epidemiological criteria than health risk criteria for prioritization. The paper concludes by noting that the key trade-offs between health risk and epidemiological properties have received too little study to systematically inform allocation during a public health emergency. Moreover, the evaluation criteria for vaccines themselves need to be adjusted to take potential short-term scarcity into account.
本文概述了在大流行期间分配稀缺疫苗剂量的方法。概述了价格和非价格方法,以确定优先考虑哪些方法。有人认为,根据病毒和疫苗的特性,使用流行病学标准可能比使用健康风险标准更好地确定优先次序。该论文最后指出,健康风险和流行病学特性之间的关键权衡得到的研究太少,无法系统地为突发公共卫生事件期间的分配提供信息。此外,需要调整疫苗本身的评价标准,以考虑到潜在的短期短缺。
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引用次数: 0
Financing vaccine equity: funding for day-zero of the next pandemic 资助疫苗公平:为下一次大流行的第一天提供资金
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-14 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grac032
Ruchir Agarwal, Tristan Reed
A lack of timely financing for purchases of vaccines and other health products impeded the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on analysis of contract signature and delivery dates in Covid-19 vaccine advance purchase agreements, this paper finds that 60–75 per cent of the delay in vaccine deliveries to low- and middle-income countries is attributable to their signing purchase agreements later than high-income countries, which placed them further behind in the delivery line. A pandemic Advance Commitment Facility with access to a credit line on day-zero of the next pandemic could allow low- and middle-income countries to secure orders earlier, ensuring a much faster and equitable global response than during Covid-19. The paper outlines four options for a financier to absorb some or all of the risk associated with the credit line and discusses how the credit would complement other proposals to strengthen the financing architecture for pandemic preparedness, prevention, and response.
缺乏及时购买疫苗和其他卫生产品的资金阻碍了全球应对Covid-19大流行。通过对Covid-19疫苗预购协议的合同签署和交付日期的分析,本文发现,低收入和中等收入国家疫苗交付延迟的60 - 75%归因于它们比高收入国家晚签署购买协议,这使它们在交付线上更加落后。在下一次大流行的第一天获得信贷额度的大流行预先承诺基金可以使低收入和中等收入国家更早地获得订单,确保比Covid-19期间更快和更公平的全球应对。该文件概述了融资方承担与信贷额度相关的部分或全部风险的四种选择,并讨论了信贷如何补充其他建议,以加强大流行防范、预防和应对的融资架构。
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引用次数: 0
Is it possible to prepare for a pandemic? 有可能为大流行做好准备吗?
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grac035
Robert Tucker Omberg, A. Tabarrok
How effective were investments in pandemic preparation? We use a comprehensive and detailed measure of pandemic preparedness, the Global Health Security (GHS) Index produced by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHU), to measure which investments in pandemic preparedness reduced infections, deaths, excess deaths, or otherwise ameliorated or shortened the pandemic. We also look at whether values or attitudinal factors such as individualism, willingness to sacrifice, or trust in government—which might be considered a form of cultural pandemic preparedness—influenced the course of the pandemic. Our primary finding is that almost no form of pandemic preparedness helped to ameliorate or shorten the pandemic. Compared to other countries, the United States did not perform poorly because of cultural values such as individualism, collectivism, selfishness, or lack of trust. General state capacity, as opposed to specific pandemic investments, is one of the few factors which appears to improve pandemic performance. Understanding the most effective forms of pandemic preparedness can help guide future investments. Our results may also suggest that either we aren’t measuring what is important or that pandemic preparedness is a global public good.
疫情准备方面的投资效果如何?我们使用了一种全面而详细的大流行准备措施,即约翰斯·霍普金斯健康安全中心(JHU)编制的全球健康安全指数,来衡量对大流行准备的哪些投资减少了感染、死亡、超额死亡,或以其他方式改善或缩短了大流行。我们还研究了个人主义、牺牲意愿或对政府的信任等价值观或态度因素是否影响了疫情的进程,这些因素可能被视为一种文化防疫形式。我们的主要发现是,几乎没有任何形式的疫情准备有助于改善或缩短疫情。与其他国家相比,美国并没有因为个人主义、集体主义、自私或缺乏信任等文化价值观而表现不佳。与特定的疫情投资相比,一般的国家能力似乎是改善疫情表现的少数因素之一。了解最有效的疫情防范形式有助于指导未来的投资。我们的研究结果也可能表明,要么我们没有衡量什么是重要的,要么疫情准备是一项全球公益。
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引用次数: 1
Expanding Capacity for Vaccines Against Covid-19 and Future Pandemics: A Review of Economic Issues 扩大Covid-19和未来大流行疫苗的能力:经济问题综述
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/w30192
S. Athey, Juan-Camilo Castillo, E. Chaudhuri, Michael Kremer, Alexandre Simoes Gomes, Christopher M. Snyder
We review economic arguments for using public policy to accelerate vaccine supply during a pandemic. Rapidly vaccinating a large share of the global population helps avoid economic, mortality, and social losses, which in the case of Covid-19 mounted into trillions of dollars. However, pharmaceutical firms are unlikely to have private incentives to invest in vaccine capacity at the socially optimal scale and speed. The socially optimal level of public spending may cause some sticker shock but—as epitomized by the tagline ‘spending billions to save trillions’—is eclipsed by the benefits and can be restrained with the help of careful policy design and advance preparations. Capacity is so valuable during a pandemic that fractional dosing and other measures to stretch available capacity should be explored.
我们回顾了在大流行期间使用公共政策加速疫苗供应的经济论据。迅速为全球大部分人口接种疫苗有助于避免经济、死亡率和社会损失,在Covid-19的情况下,这些损失高达数万亿美元。然而,制药公司不太可能有私人动机以社会最优的规模和速度投资疫苗能力。社会上最优的公共支出水平可能会引起一些“价目表上的震惊”,但正如“花费数十亿美元,节省数万亿美元”的口号所概括的那样,它的好处使其黯然失色,并可以在精心的政策设计和提前准备的帮助下得到控制。在大流行期间,能力非常宝贵,因此应探索分次给药和其他延长现有能力的措施。
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引用次数: 9
Correction to: How to solve big problems: bespoke versus platform strategies 更正:如何解决大问题:定制与平台策略
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-06-09 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grac030
A. Ansar, B. Flyvbjerg
How should government and business solve big problems? In bold leaps or in many smaller moves? We show that bespoke, one-off projects are prone to poorer outcomes than projects built on a repeatable platform. Repeatable projects are cheaper, faster, and scale at lower risk of failure. We compare evidence from 203 space missions at NASA and SpaceX, on cost, speed-to-market, schedule, and scalability. We find that SpaceX’s platform strategy was 10X cheaper and 2X faster than NASA’s bespoke strategy. Moreover, SpaceX’s platform strategy was financially less risky, virtually eliminating cost overruns. Finally, we show that achieving platform repeatability is a strategically diligent process involving experimental learning sequences. Sectors of the economy where governments find it difficult to control spending or timeframes or to realize planned benefits – e.g., health, education, climate, defence – are ripe for a platform rethink.
政府和企业应该如何解决大问题?大胆跳跃还是小动作?我们表明,定制的一次性项目往往比建立在可重复平台上的项目结果更差。可重复的项目成本更低、速度更快、规模更大,失败风险更低。我们比较了美国国家航空航天局和太空探索技术公司203次太空任务在成本、上市速度、时间表和可扩展性方面的证据。我们发现,太空探索技术公司的平台战略比美国国家航空航天局的定制战略便宜10倍,速度快2倍。此外,太空探索技术公司的平台战略在财务上风险较小,几乎消除了成本超支。最后,我们证明了实现平台可重复性是一个涉及实验学习序列的战略性勤奋过程。政府发现难以控制支出或时间框架或难以实现计划效益的经济部门——如卫生、教育、气候、国防——已经成熟,可以重新思考平台。
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引用次数: 1
Reserve System Design for Allocation of Scarce Medical Resources in a Pandemic: Some Perspectives from the Field 流行病中稀缺医疗资源配置的储备制度设计:一些实地视角
IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-01 DOI: 10.3386/w30064
Parag A. Pathak, G. Persad, Tayfun Sönmez, M. Utku Ünver
Reserve systems are a tool to allocate scarce resources when stakeholders do not have a single objective. This paper introduces some basic concepts about reserve systems for pandemic medical resource allocation. At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, we proposed that reserve systems can help practitioners arrive at compromises between competing stakeholders. More than a dozen states and local jurisdictions adopted reserve systems in initial phases of vaccine distribution. We highlight several design issues arising in some of these implementations. We also offer suggestions about ways practitioners can take advantage of the flexibility offered by reserve systems.
当利益相关者没有单一目标时,储备系统是分配稀缺资源的工具。本文介绍了疫情医疗资源配置储备制度的一些基本概念。在新冠肺炎大流行开始时,我们提出储备系统可以帮助从业者在相互竞争的利益相关者之间达成妥协。十多个州和地方司法管辖区在疫苗分发的最初阶段采用了储备制度。我们强调了其中一些实现中出现的几个设计问题。我们还就从业者如何利用储备系统提供的灵活性提出了建议。
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引用次数: 2
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Oxford Review of Economic Policy
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