: We analyse the likely trade effects of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), which defines the post-Brexit trading environment between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU). We apply a computable general equilibrium model and focus on trade in value added rather than just the gross values of exports and imports. We describe the TCA and estimate its effects on the costs of conducting UK–EU trade, including various non-tariff barriers in both goods and services. We suggest that the TCA will reduce UK trade significantly: total exports by around 7 per cent and imports by around 14 per cent. In terms of value added (i.e. incomes generated), textiles and vehicles, both of which trade extensively with the EU, suffer heavily, as do services which trade significantly with the EU, face large increases in trade barriers, and experience declining demand from other sectors as those sectors’ exports fall. Such inter-industry linkages spread the losses from Brexit widely through the economy.
{"title":"The consequences of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement for the UK’s international trade","authors":"Ilaria Fusacchia, Luca Salvatici, L Alan Winters","doi":"10.1093/oxrep/grab052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grab052","url":null,"abstract":": We analyse the likely trade effects of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), which defines the post-Brexit trading environment between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU). We apply a computable general equilibrium model and focus on trade in value added rather than just the gross values of exports and imports. We describe the TCA and estimate its effects on the costs of conducting UK–EU trade, including various non-tariff barriers in both goods and services. We suggest that the TCA will reduce UK trade significantly: total exports by around 7 per cent and imports by around 14 per cent. In terms of value added (i.e. incomes generated), textiles and vehicles, both of which trade extensively with the EU, suffer heavily, as do services which trade significantly with the EU, face large increases in trade barriers, and experience declining demand from other sectors as those sectors’ exports fall. Such inter-industry linkages spread the losses from Brexit widely through the economy.","PeriodicalId":48024,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Review of Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138528748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-15DOI: 10.1920/wp.ifs.2021.4121
Peter Levell, A. Davenport
In this paper we examine the possible distributional impacts of new trade barriers associated with the new Trade and Cooperation Agreement governing relations between the UK and EU after Brexit. We use a model of labour demand that incorporates input-output links across industries, and that allows for demand substitution by firms and consumers and worker reallocation across industries. We find that workers' exposure is moderately increasing across the earnings distribution. Exposure is greater for men than for women as they are more likely to work in manufacturing industries that are relatively harder hit by new trade barriers. Looking across areas, we find that exposure to new Brexit trade barriers is uncorrelated with measures of local deprivation and the impacts of the recent Covid-19 pandemic.
{"title":"Brexit and labour market inequalities: potential spatial and occupational impacts","authors":"Peter Levell, A. Davenport","doi":"10.1920/wp.ifs.2021.4121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1920/wp.ifs.2021.4121","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we examine the possible distributional impacts of new trade barriers associated with the new Trade and Cooperation Agreement governing relations between the UK and EU after Brexit. We use a model of labour demand that incorporates input-output links across industries, and that allows for demand substitution by firms and consumers and worker reallocation across industries. We find that workers' exposure is moderately increasing across the earnings distribution. Exposure is greater for men than for women as they are more likely to work in manufacturing industries that are relatively harder hit by new trade barriers. Looking across areas, we find that exposure to new Brexit trade barriers is uncorrelated with measures of local deprivation and the impacts of the recent Covid-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":48024,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Review of Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2021-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48198143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper contributes to a symposium of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy on “Capitalism: What has Gone Wrong, What Needs to Change, and How can it be Fixed?”. The analysis starts from the observation that, in the United States, the United Kingdom and continental Europe, widespread discontent has become an important political force. I attribute this discontent to a sense on unfairness in developments of the past few decades. I relate this sense of unfairness to: (i) negative effects of structural change, including joblessness and regional decline, (ii) the observation of extraordinary growth in executive remuneration and financial-sector remuneration, coupled with government bailouts in the global financial crisis, and (iii) changes in public policy and public discourse, with a retrenchment of public services and public investment, except for bailouts and a focus on “efficiency”, the meaning of which is driven by the perceptions of corporate executives rather than standard welfare economics. To capture these developments, one needs to think about “capitalism” in the sense of French “capitalism” or German “Kapitalismus”, with a focus on the symbiosis of wealth and power, including the elimination of competition, rather than the English sense of merely another term for the market economy.
{"title":"\"Capitalism: What Has Gone Wrong?\" Who Went Wrong? Capitalism? The Market Economy? Governments? \"Neoliberal\" Economics?","authors":"M. Hellwig","doi":"10.1093/OXREP/GRAB036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OXREP/GRAB036","url":null,"abstract":"The paper contributes to a symposium of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy on “Capitalism: What has Gone Wrong, What Needs to Change, and How can it be Fixed?”. The analysis starts from the observation that, in the United States, the United Kingdom and continental Europe, widespread discontent has become an important political force. I attribute this discontent to a sense on unfairness in developments of the past few decades. I relate this sense of unfairness to: (i) negative effects of structural change, including joblessness and regional decline, (ii) the observation of extraordinary growth in executive remuneration and financial-sector remuneration, coupled with government bailouts in the global financial crisis, and (iii) changes in public policy and public discourse, with a retrenchment of public services and public investment, except for bailouts and a focus on “efficiency”, the meaning of which is driven by the perceptions of corporate executives rather than standard welfare economics. To capture these developments, one needs to think about “capitalism” in the sense of French “capitalism” or German “Kapitalismus”, with a focus on the symbiosis of wealth and power, including the elimination of competition, rather than the English sense of merely another term for the market economy.","PeriodicalId":48024,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Review of Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2021-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43433842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Capitalism: what has gone wrong, what needs to change, and how it can be fixed","authors":"P. Collier, D. Coyle, C. Mayer, M. Wolf","doi":"10.1093/OXREP/GRAB035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OXREP/GRAB035","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48024,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Review of Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2021-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45064844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solving the great problems of our time will require reimagining capitalism by balancing the power of the free market with capable, democratically accountable government and strong civil society. Changing the purpose of the firm has the potential to make this process of rebalancing significantly easier. Purpose-driven firms could be catalysts in the drive for systemic change by supporting transformation within their own industries, supporting cooperation in the public interest and modelling public/private partnerships, and supporting the strengthening of global democracy. Transforming the purpose of the firm will require not only changing corporate law, but also changing the metrics used to control and measure firms and the social norms that constrain and guide corporate behavior.
{"title":"Changing the purpose of the corporation to rebalance capitalism","authors":"Rebecca Henderson","doi":"10.1093/OXREP/GRAB034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OXREP/GRAB034","url":null,"abstract":"Solving the great problems of our time will require reimagining capitalism by balancing the power of the free market with capable, democratically accountable government and strong civil society. Changing the purpose of the firm has the potential to make this process of rebalancing significantly easier. Purpose-driven firms could be catalysts in the drive for systemic change by supporting transformation within their own industries, supporting cooperation in the public interest and modelling public/private partnerships, and supporting the strengthening of global democracy. Transforming the purpose of the firm will require not only changing corporate law, but also changing the metrics used to control and measure firms and the social norms that constrain and guide corporate behavior.","PeriodicalId":48024,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Review of Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2021-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48412031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Capitalism: what has gone wrong? how can it be fixed?","authors":"M. Levi","doi":"10.1093/OXREP/GRAB033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OXREP/GRAB033","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48024,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Review of Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2021-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45664141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：