Journal of Financial Stability最新文献

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The flight home effect during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from syndicated loans COVID-19大流行期间的返乡效应：来自银团贷款的证据

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101370

Georgios Bampinas , Magnus Blomkvist , Elias Demetriades , Panagiotis N. Politsidis

This paper provides evidence of a flight home effect in the syndicated loan market during the COVID-19 pandemic, where lenders rebalance their loan portfolios towards domestic borrowers. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in COVID exposure in the lenders’ home country is associated with a 4.1 percentage point decrease in lenders’ share of foreign loans. This home bias eases with the intensity of government restrictions during the pandemic and strengthens with expansionary monetary policy. We further pinpoint an operative supply-side mechanism, where smaller, less capitalized banks with a higher proportion of non-performing loans are more likely to rebalance towards domestic borrowers. Although different forms of asymmetric information exert a material – yet not uniform – effect on the lenders’ rebalancing decisions, the flight home effect emerges independently of the existence of these information asymmetries.

本文提供了2019冠状病毒病大流行期间银团贷款市场“返乡效应”的证据，贷款人将其贷款组合重新调整为面向国内借款人。具体而言，贷款人本国的COVID风险敞口每增加一个标准差，贷款人的外国贷款份额就会下降4.1个百分点。这种本土倾向随着疫情期间政府限制力度的加大而减轻，并随着扩张性货币政策而加强。我们进一步指出了一种有效的供给侧机制，在这种机制中，规模较小、资本较少、不良贷款比例较高的银行更有可能向国内借款人进行再平衡。尽管不同形式的信息不对称对出借人的再平衡决策产生了重大（但并非一致）影响，但“返乡效应”的出现与这些信息不对称的存在无关。

引用次数: 0

Ancestors and corporate performance: Evidence from the Italian Mass Migration 祖先与公司绩效：来自意大利大规模移民的证据

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101371

Mingying Cheng , Erminia Florio , Stefano Manfredonia

We study the relationship between the behavior of a CEO’s ancestors and firm performance. To do so, we collect detailed information on emigrants from Italian municipalities during the Age of Mass Migration (1892–1924) from Ellis Island ships lists. We adopt an epidemiological approach complemented with an instrumental variables strategy and find that Italian firms managed by a CEO who belongs to a family with past emigration experience tend to perform better and to be more productive. In line with an inter-generational transmission of attitudes hypothesis, we show a positive relationship between the emigration experience of a CEO’s ancestors and alternative measures of corporate risk-taking. In addition, we find a positive relationship between having an ancestor who emigrated during the Age of Mass Migration and FDI to the United States. We also provide evidence that these CEOs have better managerial practices.

我们研究了CEO祖先的行为与公司绩效之间的关系。为此，我们从埃利斯岛船只名单中收集了大规模移民时代（1892-1924）意大利各城市移民的详细信息。我们采用流行病学方法与工具变量策略相辅相成，发现由具有过去移民经历的家庭的首席执行官管理的意大利公司往往表现更好，生产率更高。根据态度的代际传递假说，我们显示了CEO祖先的移民经历与公司风险承担的替代措施之间的正相关关系。此外，我们发现在大规模移民时代移民的祖先与美国的外国直接投资之间存在正相关关系。我们也提供证据证明这些ceo有更好的管理实践。

引用次数: 0

Digital transformation and debt financing cost: A threefold risk perspective 数字化转型与债务融资成本：三重风险视角

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101368

Ethan Xin Liu, Lily Dang

This paper reports the results of an investigation of the impact of digital transformation on debt financing costs. By integrating information asymmetry theory and agency theory, we have developed a threefold risk-theoretic model to demonstrate how corporate digital transformation affects a firm’s debt financing costs. Drawing on a dataset of Chinese listed companies from 2007 to 2022, we measured digital transformation across three dimensions: attention, investment, and outcomes. The findings reveal that corporate digital transformation significantly reduces the cost of debt financing for companies. Mechanism tests indicate that digital transformation reduces debt financing costs by mitigating information risk, agency risk, and earnings risk through enhanced information disclosure quality, strengthened corporate governance, and improved expected earnings. Our paper not only enriches emerging research on the impact of corporate digital transformation on financial accounting but also provides theoretical insights for effectively alleviating the issue of expensive financing.

本文报告了一项关于数字化转型对债务融资成本影响的调查结果。通过整合信息不对称理论和代理理论，我们建立了一个三重风险理论模型来证明企业数字化转型如何影响企业的债务融资成本。利用2007年至2022年中国上市公司的数据集，我们从关注度、投资和成果三个维度衡量了数字化转型。研究结果显示，企业数字化转型显著降低了企业的债务融资成本。机制检验表明，数字化转型通过提高信息披露质量、强化公司治理、提高预期盈余，降低信息风险、代理风险和盈余风险，从而降低债务融资成本。本文不仅丰富了企业数字化转型对财务会计影响的新兴研究，而且为有效缓解融资成本过高的问题提供了理论见解。

引用次数: 0

A network approach to interbank contagion risk in South Africa 南非银行间传染风险的网络方法

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101386

Pierre Nkou Mananga , Shiqiang Lin , Hairui Zhang

We investigate the resilience of the South African banking sector by applying a dynamic agent-based model and the DebtRank algorithm. In contrast to previous studies focusing on listed banks, our methodology includes both listed and non-listed institutions that make up the banking industry, thereby capturing the systemic importance and vulnerability of all banks within the interbank market network. Our findings indicate that while larger banks exhibit greater systemic importance, a statistically significant correlation exists between a bank’s interbank-lending-to-equity ratio and vulnerability. Moreover, a bank’s size and specific interbank activities influence its systemic contribution, both in terms of importance and vulnerability. These insights offer policymakers an empirically grounded framework for improving financial stability monitoring and risk mitigation efforts.

我们通过应用动态代理模型和DebtRank算法来研究南非银行业的弹性。与以往专注于上市银行的研究不同，我们的方法包括了构成银行业的上市和非上市机构，从而捕捉到了银行间市场网络中所有银行的系统重要性和脆弱性。我们的研究结果表明，虽然规模较大的银行表现出更大的系统重要性，但银行间贷款与股本比率与脆弱性之间存在统计学上显著的相关性。此外，银行的规模和特定的银行间活动会影响其在重要性和脆弱性方面的系统性贡献。这些见解为政策制定者提供了一个基于经验的框架，以改善金融稳定监测和风险缓解工作。

引用次数: 0

Too big to fail? Asymmetric effects of quantitative easing 大到不能倒？量化宽松的不对称效应

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101385

Hsuan-Chi Chen , Robin K. Chou , Chih-Yung Lin , Chien-Lin Lu

In this study, we examine the impact of liquidity support from the Federal Reserve on the capital structures of firms of varying sizes. Our findings suggest that large firms tend to increase their debt financing and leverage ratios in response to significant shocks triggered by the large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) of the US Federal Reserve. By contrast, small firms with preexisting banking relationships are more likely to receive liquidity support. Notably, small firms associated with smaller banks exhibit increased default risks. Furthermore, large firms exhibited weaker operating performance but received greater managerial compensation following the LSAP. This trend indicates potential inefficiencies in the distribution of funding facilitated by unconventional monetary policies.

在本研究中，我们考察了美联储流动性支持对不同规模企业资本结构的影响。我们的研究结果表明，大公司倾向于提高债务融资和杠杆率，以应对美联储大规模资产购买（LSAPs）引发的重大冲击。相比之下，与银行已有关系的小企业更有可能获得流动性支持。值得注意的是，与小银行有关联的小公司违约风险增加。此外，大公司表现出较弱的经营业绩，但在LSAP之后获得了更高的管理层薪酬。这一趋势表明，非常规货币政策可能导致资金分配效率低下。

引用次数: 0

Organization capital and labor investment efficiency 组织资本与劳动投资效率

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101384

Hasibul Chowdhury , Trinh Hue Le , Kelvin Jui Keng Tan

We examine whether a firm’s organization capital (OC) affects its labor investment efficiency. We find that a higher level of OC is related to lower deviations from the optimal level of labor investment according to economic conditions (higher labor investment efficiency). We find that this result is empirically robust to a stacked difference-in-differences approach using exogenous CEO turnover as a quasi-natural experiment and planned CEO retirements and forced CEO turnovers as placebo tests. We identify that the ability to retain talented employees and reduction of agency costs are the two channels by which OC improves a firm’s labor investment efficiency. Furthermore, we report that the positive effect of OC on labor investment efficiency is more pronounced in firms in highly competitive markets, firms with better access to external financing and firms with highly skilled labor.

本文考察了企业的组织资本是否影响其劳动投资效率。研究发现，企业资本水平越高，与经济条件下最优劳动投资水平的偏差越小（劳动投资效率越高）。我们发现，采用外源性CEO离职作为准自然实验，计划CEO退休和强制CEO离职作为安慰剂测试，这一结果在经验上是稳健的。我们发现，保留人才的能力和降低代理成本是OC提高企业劳动投资效率的两个渠道。此外，我们还发现，在竞争激烈的市场、外部融资渠道较好的企业和拥有高技能劳动力的企业中，企业资本对劳动力投资效率的积极影响更为明显。

引用次数: 0

The ECB’s APP’s impact on non-financial firms’ cost of borrowing and debt choice 欧洲央行APP对非金融企业借贷成本和债务选择的影响

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101387

Joana F. Kanda , João M. Pinto , Beatriz P. Silva

We examine the impact of the ECB’s asset purchase programmes on euro area non-financial firms’ cost of borrowing and their choice between corporate bonds and syndicated loans. Our findings indicate that the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) reduced spreads for both eligible and non-eligible corporate bonds, and that ECB purchases of covered bonds positively affected corporate bond spreads. The CSPP also compressed spreads across all syndicated loans, irrespective of eligibility. We find evidence supporting a “cost of borrowing channel” for covered bonds under the first programme and asset-backed securities, indicating that syndicated loan spreads reflect banks’ borrowing costs in the bond market. Additionally, our results reveal that the CSPP significantly influenced firms’ debt financing choices, with these effects being more pronounced for non-switchers.

我们研究了欧洲央行的资产购买计划对欧元区非金融企业借贷成本的影响，以及它们在公司债券和银团贷款之间的选择。我们的研究结果表明，企业部门购买计划（CSPP）降低了合格和不合格公司债券的利差，欧洲央行购买担保债券对公司债券利差产生了积极影响。CSPP还压缩了所有银团贷款的息差，无论其资格如何。我们发现证据支持第一个计划下的担保债券和资产支持证券存在“借贷成本渠道”，表明银团贷款息差反映了银行在债券市场的借贷成本。此外，我们的研究结果显示，CSPP显著影响了企业的债务融资选择，这些影响对非转换者更为明显。

引用次数: 0

Banks, freedom, and political connections: New evidence from around the world 银行、自由和政治关系：来自世界各地的新证据

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101353

Bartłomiej Cegłowski , Krzysztof Jackowicz , Łukasz Kozłowski , Iwa Kuchciak

This study examines how various facets of social and political freedom shape the impact of political connections on bank lending. Using a new dataset covering the period 2007–2018 and more than 100 countries, we find that the establishment of political connections stimulates lending, but only in countries with constrained media freedom and restricted freedom of association and expression, as well as in those scoring low on political rights and civil liberties. These results suggest that social and political freedom constitute critical factors that limit the resource-allocation distortions caused by political connections.

本研究探讨了社会和政治自由的各个方面如何影响政治关系对银行贷款的影响。通过使用涵盖 2007-2018 年间 100 多个国家的新数据集，我们发现建立政治关系会刺激贷款，但仅限于媒体自由受限、结社和言论自由受限的国家，以及政治权利和公民自由得分较低的国家。这些结果表明，社会和政治自由是限制政治关系造成的资源分配扭曲的关键因素。

引用次数: 0

Political governance and firm performance in China: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment 中国的政治治理与企业绩效：来自准自然实验的证据

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101348

Lei Cheng

The involvement of the Communist Party of China in corporate decision-making has formed a corporate governance model with “Chinese characteristics” that diverges from commonly studied governance models. This paper aims to provide direct insight into China’s corporate governance model by examining how the involvement of Party organizations in corporate governance influences the performance of private firms. To address endogeneity concerns, we use a quasi-natural experiment (i.e., sudden deaths of board directors) that leads to an exogenous change in the proportion of Party directors. Using difference-in-differences estimation, we find that an increase in the proportion of Party directors (i.e., stronger political governance) improves private firms’ performance. This finding is robust to various tests. Moreover, the channel analysis suggests that the Party organization performs advisory and supervisory functions in corporate governance. Last, we present evidence that the excessive involvement of the Party organization in corporate governance also imposes political costs on private firms.

中国共产党参与公司决策，形成了具有 "中国特色 "的公司治理模式，与通常研究的治理模式有所不同。本文旨在通过研究党组织参与公司治理如何影响民营企业的绩效，直接洞察中国的公司治理模式。为了解决内生性问题，我们使用了一个准自然实验（即董事会董事突然死亡）来导致党组织董事比例的外生变化。通过差分估算，我们发现增加党派董事的比例（即加强政治治理）会提高民营企业的绩效。这一结论在各种检验中都是稳健的。此外，渠道分析表明，党组织在公司治理中发挥着咨询和监督职能。最后，我们提出了党组织过度参与公司治理也会给民营企业带来政治成本的证据。

引用次数: 0

Lending standards and output growth 贷款标准和产出增长

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101351

Divya Kirti

What drives macro-financial vulnerabilities? Inspired by Minsky–Kindleberger narratives, one prominent view emphasizes that lending standards repeatedly deteriorate in good times, creating exposure to widespread reassessments of risk. Another emphasizes that leverage amplifies negative shocks. This paper constructs panel data on lending standards and uses it to show that Minsky–Kindleberger dynamics interact with leverage. Standards erode with improving economic performance, but do not always co-move with aggregate leverage. The combination of deteriorating standards and leverage—above and beyond leverage alone—signals poor subsequent macroeconomic performance. Inconsistent with models incorporating rational expectations, this poor subsequent performance is systematically reflected in forecast errors.

是什么导致了宏观金融脆弱性？受明斯基-金德尔伯格论述的启发，一种著名的观点强调，在经济形势好的时候，贷款标准会反复恶化，从而导致对风险的广泛重新评估。另一种观点则强调杠杆放大了负面冲击。本文构建了有关贷款标准的面板数据，并利用这些数据说明明斯基-金德尔伯格动态与杠杆作用相互作用。标准会随着经济表现的改善而降低，但并不总是与总杠杆率同步变动。不断恶化的标准与杠杆的结合--超越杠杆本身--预示着后续宏观经济表现不佳。与包含理性预期的模型不一致的是，这种糟糕的后续表现系统地反映在预测误差中。

引用次数: 0

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