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Rise of NBFIs and the global structural change in the transmission of market shocks 非金融机构的崛起与全球市场冲击传导的结构性变化
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101419
Yoshihiko Hogen , Yoshiyasu Kasai , Yuji Shinozaki
Fire-sale (FS) vulnerabilities, including those associated with nonbank financial intermediaries, are often measured using FS models. While existing studies use granular data to analyze these dynamics, the scope tends to focuses on a particular jurisdiction, leaving out the cross-jurisdictional dimension. This paper uses flow of funds data from Japan, the United States, and the Euro area to measure cross-border spillovers of market shocks (interlinkage effect) in the global financial system using a standard FS model. We find that the interlinkage effect has substantially increased at the global level since the global financial crisis, suggesting a global structural change in the transmission of market shocks.
甩卖(FS)漏洞,包括与非银行金融中介机构相关的漏洞,通常使用FS模型来衡量。虽然现有的研究使用颗粒数据来分析这些动态,但范围往往侧重于特定的司法管辖区,而忽略了跨司法管辖区的维度。本文使用来自日本、美国和欧元区的资金流动数据,使用标准金融服务模型来衡量全球金融体系中市场冲击的跨境溢出效应(互联效应)。我们发现,自全球金融危机以来,全球层面的联动效应显著增强,表明市场冲击的传导发生了全球性的结构性变化。
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引用次数: 0
On the origin of green finance policies 论绿色金融政策的起源
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101418
T.F. Cojoianu , D. French , A.G.F. Hoepner , L. Sheenan , A. Vu
Despite the rising number of green finance policies, the socioeconomic determinants shaping them remain largely unexamined. Drawing from the literature analysing the relationship between regulation, market development and institutional economics, we contend that green finance policy adoption is driven by both market-based and institutional factors. Using a survival analysis approach to understand the levers influencing green finance policy adoption across 188 countries from 2000 to 2019, we find that exposure to the fossil fuel industry predominantly drives the initial issuance of green finance policies. The positive effect of fossil fuel commercial financing on the adoption of green finance policies exists in countries with high and medium climate change awareness levels. Meanwhile, in countries with a low climate change awareness level, fossil fuel government subsidies drive green finance policy adoption. Our study also highlights the role of the financial industry as one of the key actors in the policy cycle of green finance policies via two pathways: (i) affecting financial stability through financing oil and gas companies on primary financial markets and (ii) developing a market for sustainable finance products.
尽管绿色金融政策的数量不断增加,但形成这些政策的社会经济决定因素在很大程度上仍未得到研究。根据分析监管、市场发展和制度经济学之间关系的文献,我们认为绿色金融政策的采纳是由市场和制度因素共同驱动的。利用生存分析方法了解2000年至2019年188个国家采用绿色金融政策的影响因素,我们发现化石燃料行业的敞口主要推动了绿色金融政策的初始发布。化石燃料商业融资对绿色金融政策采纳的积极影响存在于气候变化意识较高和中等水平的国家。同时,在气候变化意识较低的国家,化石燃料政府补贴推动了绿色金融政策的采用。我们的研究还强调了金融业作为绿色金融政策政策周期中的关键参与者之一的作用,其途径有两种:(i)通过在一级金融市场上为石油和天然气公司提供融资来影响金融稳定;(ii)开发可持续金融产品市场。
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引用次数: 0
How do EU banks’ funding costs respond to the CRD IV? An assessment based on the banking union directives database 欧盟银行的融资成本如何应对CRD IV?基于银行业联盟指令数据库的评估
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101416
Thomas Krause , Eleonora Sfrappini , Lena Tonzer , Cristina Zgherea
The establishment of the European Banking Union constitutes a major change in the regulatory framework of the banking system. Main parts are implemented via directives that show staggered transposition timing across EU member states. Based on the newly compiled Banking Union Directives Database, we assess how banks’ funding costs responded to the Capital Requirements Directive IV (CRD IV). We find evidence of a weak increase in funding costs that results from an increase in cost of equity which is mostly offset by a decline in cost of debt. The diverging trends stem from countries with an ex-ante lower regulatory capital stringency and an ex-post quicker activation of capital buffers, which is in line with banks’ short-run adjustment needs but longer-run benefits from increased financial stability.
欧洲银行业联盟的建立是银行体系监管框架的重大变革。主要部分是通过指令实施的,这些指令显示了欧盟成员国之间交错的换位时间。基于新编制的银行业联盟指令数据库,我们评估了银行的融资成本如何响应资本要求指令IV (CRD IV)。我们发现融资成本的微弱增长是由于股权成本的增加,而股权成本的增加主要被债务成本的下降所抵消。不同的趋势源于那些事前资本监管严格程度较低、事后资本缓冲启动速度较快的国家,这符合银行的短期调整需求,但也有利于金融稳定性增强带来的长期利益。
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引用次数: 0
Do small bank deposits run more than large ones? Three event studies of contagion and financial inclusion 小额银行存款比大额银行存款更划算吗?传染与普惠金融的三个事件研究
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101417
Dante B. Canlas , Johnny Noe E. Ravalo , Eli M. Remolona
How susceptible to contagion are bank deposits associated with financial inclusion? To assess this susceptibility, we analyze the behavior of deposits around three significant events of bank failure in the Philippines. We conduct the event studies with the advantage of a unique dataset that disaggregates deposits by size at the town level. We show that both small and large deposits are withdrawn up to 4–5 quarters before the bank’s closure. We take advantage of this distinction between small and large deposits to test for contagion. Applying difference-in-difference regressions, we find evidence of contagion: the closure of a large bank leads to withdrawals at banks in neighboring towns by depositors both large and small. This is the case for two of the three events, and when the data is taken collectively. That there is a market for information affects deposit insurance as a safety net for depositors and as a disciplining tool for banks. There are also liquidity considerations that banks need to consider. In any case, we consistently find the behavior of small depositors to be no different from that of large depositors. Hence, if financial inclusion is about access to bank deposits, it is not likely to heighten systemic risks nor mitigate them.
与普惠金融相关的银行存款有多容易受到传染?为了评估这种敏感性,我们分析了菲律宾三个重大银行倒闭事件前后的存款行为。我们利用独特的数据集进行事件研究,该数据集可以按城镇级别的大小分解沉积物。我们表明,在银行关闭前4-5个季度,小额和大额存款都被提取。我们利用小额存款和大额存款之间的这种区别来测试传染的可能性。应用差中差回归,我们发现了传染的证据:一家大银行的关闭导致大大小小的存款人在邻近城镇的银行提款。这是三个事件中的两个事件的情况,当数据被集中收集时也是如此。信息市场的存在影响到存款保险作为存款人的安全网和银行的约束工具。银行还需要考虑流动性问题。无论如何,我们始终发现小储户的行为与大储户的行为没有什么不同。因此,如果普惠金融是关于获得银行存款,那么它不太可能加剧或减轻系统性风险。
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引用次数: 0
Idiosyncratic contagion between ETFs and stocks: A high dimensional network perspective etf与股票之间的特质传染:一个高维网络视角
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101415
Yu Wang, Yiguo Sun
This paper examines the return spillovers between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and stocks. While traditional approaches focus on proportional relationships between ETFs and their underlying assets, we develop a high-dimensional network framework that captures spillover effects between any ETF-stock pair, regardless of their compositional relationship. By separating idiosyncratic and systematic risks, we investigate potential drivers of contagion. We document substantial heterogeneity in spillover patterns across sectors, which is previously unaddressed in the literature. Sectors such as Utilities and Real Estate exhibit robust spillovers to both their component stocks and assets in other sectors. Conversely, in sectors such as Consumer Discretionary and Finance, cross-sector influences dominate intra-sector ETF-constituent linkages. Our results also highlight that during periods of high market volatility, sources of idiosyncratic contagion become more diverse, suggesting the need for broader market surveillance beyond the few most influential ETFs.
本文研究了交易所交易基金(etf)与股票之间的收益溢出效应。传统方法关注etf与其标的资产之间的比例关系,而我们开发了一个高维网络框架,捕捉任何etf -股票对之间的溢出效应,而不管它们的构成关系如何。通过分离特殊风险和系统风险,我们研究了传染的潜在驱动因素。我们记录了跨部门溢出模式的实质性异质性,这在以前的文献中没有得到解决。公用事业和房地产等行业对其成分股和其他行业的资产都表现出强劲的溢出效应。相反,在非必需消费品和金融等行业,跨行业的影响主导着行业内etf构成的联系。我们的研究结果还强调,在市场高度波动期间,特殊传染的来源变得更加多样化,这表明需要在少数最有影响力的etf之外进行更广泛的市场监管。
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引用次数: 0
The paradox of macroprudential policy and sovereign risk 宏观审慎政策与主权风险的悖论
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-04-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101411
António Afonso, André Teixeira
This paper investigates the impact of macroprudential policy on sovereign risk. As long as macroprudential policy improves financial stability, it lowers sovereign risk and enables governments to increase spending without raising taxes. Consequently, countries with tighter macroprudential policies have lower primary budget balances and accumulate government debt over time. However, this effect diminishes or reverses when there is excessive regulation or high levels of debt. These findings are somewhat paradoxical: macroprudential policy may lower private debt, while increasing public debt.
本文研究宏观审慎政策对主权风险的影响。只要宏观审慎政策能改善金融稳定,就能降低主权风险,使政府能够在不增税的情况下增加支出。因此,宏观审慎政策收紧的国家基本预算余额较低,政府债务随着时间的推移而不断累积。然而,当监管过度或债务水平过高时,这种影响就会减弱或逆转。这些发现有些自相矛盾:宏观审慎政策可能会降低私人债务,同时增加公共债务。
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引用次数: 0
Dating housing booms fueled by credit: A Markov switching approach 信贷推动的房地产繁荣的年代:马尔可夫转换方法
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101412
Carlos Cañizares Martínez
This study aims to empirically identify the state of the US housing market. I do so by estimating a Markov switching model of housing prices, in which mortgage debt affects house prices nonlinearly and drives state transition probabilities. Second, I compute a state-contingent housing risk measure fed with the probability of being in each state. Finally, I show that such risk measure contains early warning information in a forecasting exercise to predict the charge-off rates of real estate residential loans and a financial stress index. The significance of this study is that it informs economic agents and policymakers about the state of the housing market mechanically.
本研究旨在实证地确定美国房地产市场的状况。我通过估计房价的马尔可夫转换模型来做到这一点,在这个模型中,抵押贷款债务非线性地影响房价,并驱动状态转换概率。其次,我计算了一个以在每个州的概率为基础的、随州而定的住房风险度量。最后,通过对房地产住宅贷款冲销率和金融压力指数的预测,证明了这种风险度量包含了预警信息。这项研究的意义在于,它为经济主体和政策制定者提供了有关住房市场状况的机械信息。
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引用次数: 0
Digital currency and banking-sector stability 数字货币和银行业稳定
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101414
William Chen , Gregory Phelan
We introduce digital currency into a macro model with a banking sector in which financial frictions generate endogenous systemic risk and instability. In the model, digital currency is fully integrated into the financial system. Stablecoin issuance significantly increases the probability of a banking-sector crisis because it depresses bank deposit spreads, particularly during crises, which limits banks’ ability to recapitalize following losses. While banking-sector stability suffers, household welfare can still improve significantly. Financial frictions nevertheless limit the potential benefits of digital currencies. The optimal level of digital currency could be below what would be issued in a competitive environment. In contrast to stablecoins, which are backed by debt, tokenized deposits backed by traditional bank assets improve welfare without harming financial stability. The scope for welfare gains from stablecoins or tokenized deposits depends on how households value the liquidity services of digital currency relative to traditional deposits and on the cost of issuing stablecoins.
我们将数字货币引入银行部门的宏观模型,其中金融摩擦会产生内生的系统性风险和不稳定性。在该模型中,数字货币完全融入金融体系。稳定币的发行大大增加了银行业发生危机的可能性,因为它压低了银行存款利差,尤其是在危机期间,这限制了银行在亏损后进行资本重组的能力。虽然银行业的稳定性受到影响,但家庭福利仍可以显著改善。然而,金融摩擦限制了数字货币的潜在好处。数字货币的最佳水平可能低于在竞争环境中发行的数字货币。与由债务支持的稳定币相比,由传统银行资产支持的代币化存款在不损害金融稳定的情况下改善了福利。稳定币或代币化存款的福利收益范围取决于家庭如何评估数字货币相对于传统存款的流动性服务,以及发行稳定币的成本。
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引用次数: 0
Central banks’ financial stability orientation and bank risk-taking 央行金融稳定取向与银行风险承担
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101409
Christy Dwita Mariana , Arisyi F. Raz
The existing literature provides inconclusive theoretical predictions regarding whether central banks’ monetary policy should address financial stability. We therefore empirically evaluate the effect of central banks’ financial stability orientation (“leaning against the wind”) on bank risk-taking. Our baseline results from cross-country, bank-level panel data suggest that higher central banks’ financial stability orientation significantly reduces bank risk-taking. Further investigation shows that monetary policy aimed at achieving financial stability complements macroprudential policy in reducing bank risk-taking, particularly during macroprudential policy tightening. These results offer novel insights into the effect of central bank’s monetary policy on bank stability and provide empirical evidence to prior theoretical works.
关于央行的货币政策是否应该解决金融稳定问题,现有文献提供了不确定的理论预测。因此,我们对央行的金融稳定取向(“逆风”)对银行风险承担的影响进行了实证评估。我们从跨国银行层面的面板数据得出的基线结果表明,央行金融稳定取向越高,银行承担风险的风险就越低。进一步的调查表明,旨在实现金融稳定的货币政策在减少银行冒险行为方面与宏观审慎政策相辅相成,特别是在宏观审慎政策收紧期间。这些结果为中央银行货币政策对银行稳定性的影响提供了新的见解,并为先前的理论工作提供了经验证据。
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引用次数: 0
What drives U.S. corporate private equity? An historical perspective 是什么推动了美国企业私募股权?历史的视角
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101413
John V. Duca , Franklin Sanchez-Colburn
This study models the closely held (PE) share of U.S. nonfinancial corporate equity over time. Corporate income tax rates, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, default risk, and the real medium-run Treasury yield significantly affect the PE share, consistent with other studies which separately analyze these factors. The PE share is negatively related to business loan delinquencies and real medium-term Treasury rates. High interest rates discourage PE funds from using leverage to finance buyouts of public companies and fund distributions of interim cash distributions that enhance the relative liquidity of the closely held firms in PE fund portfolios. Interim cash distributions by PE funds help to avoid the double-taxation of dividends, thus causing the appeal of PE to rise with corporate income tax rates, which increases the PE share. The PE share rose during the Enron scandal and after the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX), which increased the costs of continuing as, or becoming, a publicly traded corporation. The PE share is well explained and tracked by key macroeconomic variables as well as tax and regulatory policies.
本研究模拟了美国非金融企业股权中私募股权的长期变化。企业所得税税率、萨班斯-奥克斯利法案(Sarbanes-Oxley Act)、违约风险和实际中期国债收益率显著影响市盈率,这与其他单独分析这些因素的研究结果一致。市盈率与企业贷款拖欠和实际中期国债利率呈负相关。高利率阻碍了私募股权基金利用杠杆融资收购上市公司,也阻碍了私募股权基金分配中期现金分配,而中期现金分配提高了私募股权基金投资组合中被密切关注的公司的相对流动性。私募基金的中期现金分配有助于避免股息的双重征税,从而使私募基金的吸引力随着企业所得税税率的上升而上升,从而增加了私募基金的份额。在安然(Enron)丑闻和萨班斯-奥克斯利法案(Sarbanes-Oxley Act,简称SOX)出台后,私募股权上涨,该法案增加了继续作为上市公司或成为上市公司的成本。关键宏观经济变量以及税收和监管政策都能很好地解释和跟踪PE份额。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Financial Stability
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