Journal of Financial Stability最新文献

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CEO-employee pay disparity, risk-taking incentives, and financial reporting choices ceo与员工薪酬差距、冒险激励和财务报告选择

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101476

Han Dai , Dahlia Robinson , Yi Shen

Section 953b of the Dodd-Frank Act mandates the disclosure of CEO-employee pay ratios for public companies beginning in fiscal year 2017. Using hand-collected data on CEO-employee pay ratios, we investigate the association between CEO-employee pay disparity and risk-taking behaviors at both the executive and firm levels. We find that higher pay ratios are associated with greater CEO risk-taking incentives, less conservative financial reporting, more frequent merger and acquisition activities, and marginally higher risk disclosure on 10-K filings. Robustness tests and heterogeneity analyses reveal stronger effects in firms with weaker governance, lower transparency, male CEOs, and less R&D-intensive environments. We also show that the SEC’s 2017 mandatory pay ratio disclosure rule significantly reduced CEO Vega, suggesting that transparency may constrain CEO’s risk-taking incentives. Our findings highlight the behavioral implications of internal pay inequality and provide important insights into how compensation structure shapes executive incentives and corporate decision-making.

《多德-弗兰克法案》（Dodd-Frank Act）第953b条规定，从2017财年开始，上市公司必须披露ceo与员工的薪酬比率。本文利用手工收集的ceo与员工薪酬比率数据，从高管和公司两个层面考察了ceo与员工薪酬差距与风险行为之间的关系。我们发现，较高的薪酬比率与CEO更大的冒险激励、更不保守的财务报告、更频繁的并购活动以及10-K文件中略高的风险披露有关。稳健性检验和异质性分析显示，在治理较弱、透明度较低、男性ceo和研发密集型环境较低的公司中，效果更强。我们还发现，美国证券交易委员会2017年的强制性薪酬比率披露规则显著降低了首席执行官的Vega，这表明透明度可能会限制首席执行官的冒险激励。我们的研究结果强调了内部薪酬不平等的行为含义，并为薪酬结构如何影响高管激励和公司决策提供了重要见解。

引用次数: 0

Real effects of bank shocks 银行冲击的真实影响

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101475

Vivek Sharma

This paper studies how bank-firm lending relationships shape the macroeconomic effects of banking sector shocks. I develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which collateral-constrained entrepreneurs borrow from banks through endogenously persistent credit relationships, modeled using a deep habits in banking framework. A negative repayment shock to bank loans triggers a sharp rise in credit spread and a contraction in bank lending and investment. However, the persistence embedded in credit relationships accelerates recovery – as spread normalizes, credit and output rebound. In contrast, when lending relationships are absent, the same shock generates a milder initial downturn but a more prolonged slowdown, as high spread persists and credit remains depressed. These findings highlight a fundamental trade-off in financial crises – relationship lending amplifies short-run effects but stabilizes recovery. The results underscore the importance of preserving bank-firm ties during financial shocks – through potential mechanisms such as credit guarantees, liquidity provision, or regulatory flexibility – as a means to support faster post-crisis normalization.

本文研究银行-企业借贷关系如何影响银行业冲击的宏观经济效应。我开发了一个动态一般均衡模型，在这个模型中，抵押品受限的企业家通过内生的持续信贷关系从银行借款，并使用银行框架中的深层习惯进行建模。银行贷款的负还款冲击引发信贷息差急剧上升，银行贷款和投资收缩。然而，信贷关系中的持续性加速了复苏——随着利差正常化，信贷和产出反弹。相反，当贷款关系不存在时，同样的冲击会产生较温和的最初低迷，但会导致更长的放缓，因为高息差持续存在，信贷仍然低迷。这些发现凸显了金融危机中的一种基本权衡——关系贷款放大了短期效应，但稳定了复苏。研究结果强调了在金融冲击期间通过信用担保、流动性提供或监管灵活性等潜在机制保持银行与企业关系的重要性，这是支持危机后更快正常化的一种手段。

引用次数: 0

Systemic risk in centralised interbank networks 集中式银行间网络的系统性风险

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101471

Mario Eboli

In this paper, I investigate the relationship between centralisation and systemic resilience in two-tiered interbank networks. Using flow network theory, I characterise the systemic contagion thresholds of stylised Core–Periphery (CP) and Star-Core–Periphery (SCP) networks, focusing on two fundamental contagion channels: common exposures and direct balance-sheet default contagion. Both network typologies are benchmarked against the maximally centralised star networks. The results demonstrate that centralisation when embedded within a modular two-tiered structure, enhances systemic resilience against shocks by reducing aggregate interbank exposures and constraining the spread of contagion across regions of the network. However, this stability comes at a cost. The obtained results highlight a fundamental trade-off between efficiency and risk concentration posed by the centralisation of interbank networks. While the centralisation of interbank exposures facilitates more efficient liquidity reallocations among banks and attenuates the spread of decentralised shocks, it simultaneously amplifies the vulnerability of the network to distress at the hub nodes. Indeed, the two-tiered modular structure of CP and SCP appears particularly exposed to the risk of systemic crises if all hub nodes, i.e. all banks in the core, suffer an exogenous solvency shock. The consequent policy implications for real-world core–periphery networks underscore the importance of reducing the likelihood of common shocks to core banks penalising them for holding overlapping and correlated portfolios.

在本文中，我研究了两层银行间网络中集中化与系统弹性之间的关系。利用流动网络理论，我描述了程式化的核心-外围（CP）和星-核心-外围（SCP）网络的系统传染阈值，重点关注两个基本传染渠道：共同风险敞口和直接资产负债表违约传染。这两种网络类型都以最大集中式星型网络为基准。研究结果表明，当集中化嵌入模块化两层结构时，通过减少银行间总风险敞口和限制传染在网络各区域的传播，可以增强系统抵御冲击的能力。然而，这种稳定性是有代价的。获得的结果突出了银行间网络集中化带来的效率和风险集中之间的基本权衡。虽然银行间风险敞口的集中化促进了银行间更有效的流动性再分配，并减弱了分散冲击的传播，但它同时也放大了网络对枢纽节点困境的脆弱性。事实上，如果所有枢纽节点（即核心的所有银行）遭受外源性偿付能力冲击，CP和SCP的双层模块化结构似乎特别容易受到系统性危机的风险。由此产生的对现实世界核心-外围网络的政策影响，突显了降低核心银行因持有重叠且相关的投资组合而遭受共同冲击的可能性的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Projected operating efficiencies, credit ratings and the creation of debt capacity 预计的运营效率、信用评级和债务能力的创造

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101469

Ahmad K. Ismail, Assem Safieddine

We investigate how operating synergies from mergers and acquisitions (M&A) influence the acquiring firm’s debt capacity, credit ratings, and market valuation. Our analysis incorporates credit rating quality, revealing that investment-grade acquirers predominantly drive the positive relationship between synergy forecasts and debt issuance. This pattern reflects reduced information asymmetry and strengthens lender confidence. Further, we find that while increased debt issuance generally pressures credit ratings downward, this effect is reversed for high-credit-quality firms with credible synergy forecasts, allowing them to improve their ratings post-merger. Market reactions align with these findings, demonstrating more favorable abnormal returns for deals with high synergy projections that boost debt capacity. Robustness checks, including sample selection correction and alternative leverage measures, confirm the robustness and stability of these results. Our study highlights the critical role of credible synergy forecasts and credit quality in shaping financing strategies and market perceptions in the M&A context.

我们研究了并购的经营协同效应（M&；A）如何影响收购方的债务能力、信用评级和市场估值。我们的分析纳入了信用评级质量，揭示了投资级收购方主要推动了协同预测与债务发行之间的正相关关系。这种模式反映了信息不对称的减少，增强了贷款人的信心。此外，我们发现，虽然增加的债务发行通常会使信用评级下降，但对于具有可信协同预测的高信用质量公司，这种影响是相反的，这使得它们能够在合并后提高评级。市场反应与这些发现一致，表明具有高协同效应预测的交易更有利的异常回报，从而提高债务能力。稳健性检验，包括样本选择校正和替代杠杆措施，证实了这些结果的稳健性和稳定性。我们的研究强调了在并购背景下，可信的协同预测和信贷质量在塑造融资策略和市场认知方面的关键作用。

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引用次数: 0

Output floors in setting bank capital requirements 设定银行资本要求的产出下限

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101459

Adrian POP, Diana POP

We examine various implementation issues related to the calibration of output floors in setting minimum bank capital requirements under the finalized version of the Basel III capital accord. The main raison d’être of output floors is to limit the capital savings enjoyed by large banks due to regulatory arbitrage under the internal model paradigm. We consider regulatory arbitrage through the bank’s incentive to optimize its grading system in order to lower as much as possible the capital requirement given the structure of its asset portfolio in terms of internal ratings and default probabilities. Based on a fictional portfolio of SME loans observed over a full business cycle, we conduct a counterfactual analysis in order to compare the effect of the output floor implemented with respect to two benchmarks: (i) a standardized approach calibrated from credit ratings assigned by external rating agencies, as proposed in the finalized version of the Basel III capital accord; and (ii) an alternative, more granular, and comprehensive standardized approach benchmark, based on an external grading system that mimics the in-house credit assessment systems used by certain national central banks. Our results show that a more granular, risk-sensitive, benchmark is likely to reduce the effect of the output floor on the minimum capital requirement. We also reveal that output floors exhibit a countercyclical pattern, which is an interesting feature of the mechanism from a macroprudential point of view.

我们研究了在最终版本的《巴塞尔协议III》资本协议下，与设定最低银行资本要求的输出下限相关的各种实施问题。在内部模型范式下，设置产出下限的主要原因是为了限制大银行因监管套利而节省的资本。我们考虑了监管套利，通过银行的激励优化其评级系统，以尽可能降低其资产组合的内部评级和违约概率结构的资本要求。基于在整个商业周期中观察到的虚构的中小企业贷款组合，我们进行了反事实分析，以比较相对于两个基准实施的产出下限的效果：(i)根据外部评级机构分配的信用评级校准的标准化方法，如巴塞尔III资本协议的最终版本所建议的；（ii）基于模仿某些国家中央银行使用的内部信用评估系统的外部评级系统，可选择的、更细粒度的、全面的标准化方法基准。我们的研究结果表明，一个更细致、风险敏感的基准可能会降低最低资本要求的产出下限的影响。我们还发现，从宏观审慎的角度来看，产出下限表现出反周期模式，这是该机制的一个有趣特征。

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引用次数: 0

Non-blockholder dissatisfaction and firm performance volatility: A groupthink perspective 非大股东不满与公司绩效波动：群体思维视角

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101456

Jeong-Bon Kim , Johan Maharjan , Yijiang Zhao

Social psychology research suggests that management groups under greater external pressure are more prone to groupthink (i.e., a tendency to reach premature consensus), leading to greater performance volatility. To isolate the group dynamics channel, we focus on the pressure management faces from largely uninformed and dissatisfied non-blockholders. Consistent with the groupthink view, we find that non-blockholder dissatisfaction is positively associated with performance volatility, which is further corroborated by tests addressing omitted variable bias and reverse causality. In addition, the baseline relationship is stronger in firms with greater interaction among directors, more powerful CEOs, and less diverse boards. Our findings suggest that non-blockholder dissatisfaction heightens performance volatility by exacerbating groupthink.

社会心理学研究表明，受到较大外部压力的管理群体更容易产生群体思维（即倾向于过早达成共识），从而导致更大的绩效波动。为了隔离群体动态渠道，我们将重点放在管理层面临的压力上，这些压力来自大部分不知情和不满意的非大股东。与群体思维观点一致，我们发现非大股东不满与绩效波动呈正相关，这进一步得到了解决遗漏变量偏差和反向因果关系的测试的证实。此外，在董事之间互动更多、首席执行官权力更大、董事会多元化程度更低的公司中，这种基线关系更强。我们的研究结果表明，非大股东的不满会加剧群体思维，从而加剧绩效波动。

引用次数: 0

A stablecoin that’s actually stable: A portfolio optimization approach 一个真正稳定的稳定币：一种投资组合优化方法

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101458

Klaus Grobys , Juha-Pekka Junttila , James W. Kolari

Stablecoins seek to address the high price fluctuations of unbacked cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ether. However, recent studies as well as the collapse of stablecoin USTC (Terra) cast doubt on the stability of stablecoins. Using well-known Markowitz portfolio optimization methods, we combine five leading stablecoins into a global minimum variance portfolio that represents a stable aggregate stablecoin (SAS). We find that SAS is much more stable than its constituent stablecoins. Also, in a stress test adding USTC to the portfolio, SAS remains stable with a narrow price range over time. Importantly, the construction of SAS using modern diversification methods has practical implications for the ongoing development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

稳定币旨在解决比特币和以太币等无担保加密货币的高价格波动问题。然而，最近的研究以及稳定币USTC （Terra）的崩溃使人们对稳定币的稳定性产生了怀疑。使用著名的马科维茨投资组合优化方法，我们将五种领先的稳定币组合成一个代表稳定总稳定币（SAS）的全球最小方差投资组合。我们发现SAS比其组成的稳定币稳定得多。此外，在将USTC加入投资组合的压力测试中，SAS在一段时间内保持稳定，价格区间较窄。重要的是，使用现代多样化方法构建SAS对央行数字货币（cbdc）的持续发展具有实际意义。

引用次数: 0

Cross-listing, innovation and the role of nation-level institutions 交叉上市、创新和国家级机构的作用

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101457

Trung K. Do

We analyze the relationship between cross-listing and innovation using a sample of firms from 40 countries spanning 1980–2016. We measure innovation through both the number of patents granted and citations received. Our results reveal a positive association between cross-listing and innovation, with this effect being more pronounced for firms from countries with poor legal environments and less developed financial systems. Overall, our findings align with bonding theory, suggesting that managers of cross-listed firms seek to bind themselves by adhering to the high legal and regulatory standards demanded by U.S. markets.

我们以1980-2016年间40个国家的公司为样本，分析了交叉上市与创新之间的关系。我们通过授予专利的数量和获得引用的数量来衡量创新。我们的研究结果显示，交叉上市与创新之间存在正相关关系，对于法律环境较差和金融体系较不发达的国家的公司来说，这种影响更为明显。总体而言，我们的研究结果与粘合理论一致，表明交叉上市公司的管理者通过遵守美国市场要求的高法律和监管标准来寻求约束自己。

引用次数: 0

Financial contagion within the interbank network 银行间网络内的金融传染

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101449

Christina D. Mikropoulou , Angelos T. Vouldis

The analysis of contagion in financial networks has primarily focused on transmission channels operating through direct linkages. This paper develops an agent-based model of financial contagion in the interbank market that features both direct and indirect transmission mechanisms. We conduct simulations on actual interbank bilateral exposures, constructed manually from a confidential supervisory dataset reported by the largest euro area banks. The model is used to investigate and quantify the relative contributions of direct and indirect channels. We find that while the impact of direct contagion increases gradually with the shock intensity, the effect of indirect contagion is subject to threshold effects and can increase abruptly when the threshold is exceeded. In addition, the risk posed by indirect contagion has a higher upper bound compared to direct contagion. Finally, we find that in terms of overall impact, the shocks to the value of sovereign debt and non-bank financial institutions represent the most significant risk to the functioning of the interbank market.

对金融网络传染的分析主要集中在通过直接联系运作的传播渠道上。本文建立了一个基于主体的银行间市场金融传染模型，该模型具有直接传染机制和间接传染机制。我们对实际的银行间双边风险敞口进行了模拟，这些风险敞口是根据欧元区最大银行报告的机密监管数据集手动构建的。该模型用于调查和量化直接和间接渠道的相对贡献。我们发现，直接传染的影响随着冲击强度的增大而逐渐增大，而间接传染的影响受阈值效应影响，超过阈值后会突然增大。此外，与直接传染相比，间接传染带来的风险有更高的上限。最后，我们发现，就整体影响而言，对主权债务和非银行金融机构价值的冲击对银行间市场的运作构成了最大的风险。

引用次数: 0

Monetary policy transmission via nonbank lending: Evidence from peer-to-peer loans 非银行贷款的货币政策传导：来自p2p贷款的证据

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101455

Esteban Argudo

I use data on unsecured consumer loans from Lending Club to study how peer-to-peer lending markets respond to monetary policy shocks. I find that both loan supply and demand decrease following unexpected increases in the federal funds rate. The contraction in supply is smallest for risky borrowers, while the decline in demand is largest for these borrowers. In contrast, both demand and supply increase following surprise LSAP contractions, with the increases being largest for risky borrowers. These findings suggest that peer-to-peer lending dampens the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in unsecured consumer credit markets while increasing risk-taking.

我使用Lending Club的无担保消费贷款数据来研究点对点贷款市场对货币政策冲击的反应。我发现，在联邦基金利率意外上调后，贷款供给和需求都会减少。对高风险借款人而言，供应收缩最小，而对这些借款人而言，需求降幅最大。相比之下，在LSAP意外收缩后，需求和供应都增加了，风险借款人的增幅最大。这些发现表明，在无担保消费信贷市场中，p2p贷款抑制了货币政策传导的有效性，同时增加了风险承担。

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全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

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Journal of Financial Stability

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