Journal of Financial Stability最新文献

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Projected operating efficiencies, credit ratings and the creation of debt capacity 预计的运营效率、信用评级和债务能力的创造

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101469

Ahmad K. Ismail, Assem Safieddine

We investigate how operating synergies from mergers and acquisitions (M&A) influence the acquiring firm’s debt capacity, credit ratings, and market valuation. Our analysis incorporates credit rating quality, revealing that investment-grade acquirers predominantly drive the positive relationship between synergy forecasts and debt issuance. This pattern reflects reduced information asymmetry and strengthens lender confidence. Further, we find that while increased debt issuance generally pressures credit ratings downward, this effect is reversed for high-credit-quality firms with credible synergy forecasts, allowing them to improve their ratings post-merger. Market reactions align with these findings, demonstrating more favorable abnormal returns for deals with high synergy projections that boost debt capacity. Robustness checks, including sample selection correction and alternative leverage measures, confirm the robustness and stability of these results. Our study highlights the critical role of credible synergy forecasts and credit quality in shaping financing strategies and market perceptions in the M&A context.

我们研究了并购的经营协同效应（M&；A）如何影响收购方的债务能力、信用评级和市场估值。我们的分析纳入了信用评级质量，揭示了投资级收购方主要推动了协同预测与债务发行之间的正相关关系。这种模式反映了信息不对称的减少，增强了贷款人的信心。此外，我们发现，虽然增加的债务发行通常会使信用评级下降，但对于具有可信协同预测的高信用质量公司，这种影响是相反的，这使得它们能够在合并后提高评级。市场反应与这些发现一致，表明具有高协同效应预测的交易更有利的异常回报，从而提高债务能力。稳健性检验，包括样本选择校正和替代杠杆措施，证实了这些结果的稳健性和稳定性。我们的研究强调了在并购背景下，可信的协同预测和信贷质量在塑造融资策略和市场认知方面的关键作用。

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引用次数: 0

Output floors in setting bank capital requirements 设定银行资本要求的产出下限

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101459

Adrian POP, Diana POP

We examine various implementation issues related to the calibration of output floors in setting minimum bank capital requirements under the finalized version of the Basel III capital accord. The main raison d’être of output floors is to limit the capital savings enjoyed by large banks due to regulatory arbitrage under the internal model paradigm. We consider regulatory arbitrage through the bank’s incentive to optimize its grading system in order to lower as much as possible the capital requirement given the structure of its asset portfolio in terms of internal ratings and default probabilities. Based on a fictional portfolio of SME loans observed over a full business cycle, we conduct a counterfactual analysis in order to compare the effect of the output floor implemented with respect to two benchmarks: (i) a standardized approach calibrated from credit ratings assigned by external rating agencies, as proposed in the finalized version of the Basel III capital accord; and (ii) an alternative, more granular, and comprehensive standardized approach benchmark, based on an external grading system that mimics the in-house credit assessment systems used by certain national central banks. Our results show that a more granular, risk-sensitive, benchmark is likely to reduce the effect of the output floor on the minimum capital requirement. We also reveal that output floors exhibit a countercyclical pattern, which is an interesting feature of the mechanism from a macroprudential point of view.

我们研究了在最终版本的《巴塞尔协议III》资本协议下，与设定最低银行资本要求的输出下限相关的各种实施问题。在内部模型范式下，设置产出下限的主要原因是为了限制大银行因监管套利而节省的资本。我们考虑了监管套利，通过银行的激励优化其评级系统，以尽可能降低其资产组合的内部评级和违约概率结构的资本要求。基于在整个商业周期中观察到的虚构的中小企业贷款组合，我们进行了反事实分析，以比较相对于两个基准实施的产出下限的效果：(i)根据外部评级机构分配的信用评级校准的标准化方法，如巴塞尔III资本协议的最终版本所建议的；（ii）基于模仿某些国家中央银行使用的内部信用评估系统的外部评级系统，可选择的、更细粒度的、全面的标准化方法基准。我们的研究结果表明，一个更细致、风险敏感的基准可能会降低最低资本要求的产出下限的影响。我们还发现，从宏观审慎的角度来看，产出下限表现出反周期模式，这是该机制的一个有趣特征。

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引用次数: 0

Non-blockholder dissatisfaction and firm performance volatility: A groupthink perspective 非大股东不满与公司绩效波动：群体思维视角

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101456

Jeong-Bon Kim , Johan Maharjan , Yijiang Zhao

Social psychology research suggests that management groups under greater external pressure are more prone to groupthink (i.e., a tendency to reach premature consensus), leading to greater performance volatility. To isolate the group dynamics channel, we focus on the pressure management faces from largely uninformed and dissatisfied non-blockholders. Consistent with the groupthink view, we find that non-blockholder dissatisfaction is positively associated with performance volatility, which is further corroborated by tests addressing omitted variable bias and reverse causality. In addition, the baseline relationship is stronger in firms with greater interaction among directors, more powerful CEOs, and less diverse boards. Our findings suggest that non-blockholder dissatisfaction heightens performance volatility by exacerbating groupthink.

社会心理学研究表明，受到较大外部压力的管理群体更容易产生群体思维（即倾向于过早达成共识），从而导致更大的绩效波动。为了隔离群体动态渠道，我们将重点放在管理层面临的压力上，这些压力来自大部分不知情和不满意的非大股东。与群体思维观点一致，我们发现非大股东不满与绩效波动呈正相关，这进一步得到了解决遗漏变量偏差和反向因果关系的测试的证实。此外，在董事之间互动更多、首席执行官权力更大、董事会多元化程度更低的公司中，这种基线关系更强。我们的研究结果表明，非大股东的不满会加剧群体思维，从而加剧绩效波动。

引用次数: 0

A stablecoin that’s actually stable: A portfolio optimization approach 一个真正稳定的稳定币：一种投资组合优化方法

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101458

Klaus Grobys , Juha-Pekka Junttila , James W. Kolari

Stablecoins seek to address the high price fluctuations of unbacked cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ether. However, recent studies as well as the collapse of stablecoin USTC (Terra) cast doubt on the stability of stablecoins. Using well-known Markowitz portfolio optimization methods, we combine five leading stablecoins into a global minimum variance portfolio that represents a stable aggregate stablecoin (SAS). We find that SAS is much more stable than its constituent stablecoins. Also, in a stress test adding USTC to the portfolio, SAS remains stable with a narrow price range over time. Importantly, the construction of SAS using modern diversification methods has practical implications for the ongoing development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

稳定币旨在解决比特币和以太币等无担保加密货币的高价格波动问题。然而，最近的研究以及稳定币USTC （Terra）的崩溃使人们对稳定币的稳定性产生了怀疑。使用著名的马科维茨投资组合优化方法，我们将五种领先的稳定币组合成一个代表稳定总稳定币（SAS）的全球最小方差投资组合。我们发现SAS比其组成的稳定币稳定得多。此外，在将USTC加入投资组合的压力测试中，SAS在一段时间内保持稳定，价格区间较窄。重要的是，使用现代多样化方法构建SAS对央行数字货币（cbdc）的持续发展具有实际意义。

引用次数: 0

Cross-listing, innovation and the role of nation-level institutions 交叉上市、创新和国家级机构的作用

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101457

Trung K. Do

We analyze the relationship between cross-listing and innovation using a sample of firms from 40 countries spanning 1980–2016. We measure innovation through both the number of patents granted and citations received. Our results reveal a positive association between cross-listing and innovation, with this effect being more pronounced for firms from countries with poor legal environments and less developed financial systems. Overall, our findings align with bonding theory, suggesting that managers of cross-listed firms seek to bind themselves by adhering to the high legal and regulatory standards demanded by U.S. markets.

我们以1980-2016年间40个国家的公司为样本，分析了交叉上市与创新之间的关系。我们通过授予专利的数量和获得引用的数量来衡量创新。我们的研究结果显示，交叉上市与创新之间存在正相关关系，对于法律环境较差和金融体系较不发达的国家的公司来说，这种影响更为明显。总体而言，我们的研究结果与粘合理论一致，表明交叉上市公司的管理者通过遵守美国市场要求的高法律和监管标准来寻求约束自己。

引用次数: 0

Financial contagion within the interbank network 银行间网络内的金融传染

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101449

Christina D. Mikropoulou , Angelos T. Vouldis

The analysis of contagion in financial networks has primarily focused on transmission channels operating through direct linkages. This paper develops an agent-based model of financial contagion in the interbank market that features both direct and indirect transmission mechanisms. We conduct simulations on actual interbank bilateral exposures, constructed manually from a confidential supervisory dataset reported by the largest euro area banks. The model is used to investigate and quantify the relative contributions of direct and indirect channels. We find that while the impact of direct contagion increases gradually with the shock intensity, the effect of indirect contagion is subject to threshold effects and can increase abruptly when the threshold is exceeded. In addition, the risk posed by indirect contagion has a higher upper bound compared to direct contagion. Finally, we find that in terms of overall impact, the shocks to the value of sovereign debt and non-bank financial institutions represent the most significant risk to the functioning of the interbank market.

对金融网络传染的分析主要集中在通过直接联系运作的传播渠道上。本文建立了一个基于主体的银行间市场金融传染模型，该模型具有直接传染机制和间接传染机制。我们对实际的银行间双边风险敞口进行了模拟，这些风险敞口是根据欧元区最大银行报告的机密监管数据集手动构建的。该模型用于调查和量化直接和间接渠道的相对贡献。我们发现，直接传染的影响随着冲击强度的增大而逐渐增大，而间接传染的影响受阈值效应影响，超过阈值后会突然增大。此外，与直接传染相比，间接传染带来的风险有更高的上限。最后，我们发现，就整体影响而言，对主权债务和非银行金融机构价值的冲击对银行间市场的运作构成了最大的风险。

引用次数: 0

Monetary policy transmission via nonbank lending: Evidence from peer-to-peer loans 非银行贷款的货币政策传导：来自p2p贷款的证据

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101455

Esteban Argudo

I use data on unsecured consumer loans from Lending Club to study how peer-to-peer lending markets respond to monetary policy shocks. I find that both loan supply and demand decrease following unexpected increases in the federal funds rate. The contraction in supply is smallest for risky borrowers, while the decline in demand is largest for these borrowers. In contrast, both demand and supply increase following surprise LSAP contractions, with the increases being largest for risky borrowers. These findings suggest that peer-to-peer lending dampens the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in unsecured consumer credit markets while increasing risk-taking.

我使用Lending Club的无担保消费贷款数据来研究点对点贷款市场对货币政策冲击的反应。我发现，在联邦基金利率意外上调后，贷款供给和需求都会减少。对高风险借款人而言，供应收缩最小，而对这些借款人而言，需求降幅最大。相比之下，在LSAP意外收缩后，需求和供应都增加了，风险借款人的增幅最大。这些发现表明，在无担保消费信贷市场中，p2p贷款抑制了货币政策传导的有效性，同时增加了风险承担。

引用次数: 0

Institutional distraction and illegal business practices: The role of career concerns and wealth incentives 制度性干扰和非法商业行为：职业关注和财富激励的作用

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101450

Daniel Neukirchen , Gerrit Köchling , Peter N. Posch

We exploit exogenous shocks to institutional investors’ portfolios to show that managers engage in significantly more stakeholder-related misconduct when institutional investors are distracted. Additional cross-sectional tests reveal that managerial career concerns and risk-taking equity incentives strongly moderate this relationship, suggesting that managers weigh the potential benefits and risks before engaging in misconduct during these periods. Finally, we provide evidence that the results are more pronounced when especially those institutional investors who are likely to be motivated monitors of the managers become distracted.

我们利用机构投资者投资组合的外生冲击来表明，当机构投资者分心时，管理者会明显更多地参与与利益相关者相关的不当行为。另外的横断面测试显示，管理职业生涯的考虑和冒险股权激励强烈地调节了这种关系，表明管理人员在这些时期从事不当行为之前权衡了潜在的利益和风险。最后，我们提供的证据表明，当那些可能是经理人的激励监督者的机构投资者变得心烦意乱时，结果更加明显。

引用次数: 0

Decomposing systemic risk: The roles of contagion and common exposures 分解系统风险：传染和共同暴露的作用

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101451

Grzegorz Hałaj, Ruben Hipp

We evaluate the impact of contagion and common exposures on banks’ capital using a structural regression framework derived from the balance sheet identity and inspired by the structural VAR literature. Contagion arises through bilateral exposures, fire sales, rollover risk, and market-based sentiment, while common exposures reflect overlapping portfolio holdings. We estimate the model using granular regulatory balance sheet and interbank exposure data for the Canadian banking sector. Our results yield three key insights. First, contagion driven by bilateral contractual exposures remains relatively stable over time until the onset of quantitative easing. In contrast, non-contractual contagion channels are less stable and move with market conditions. Second, we observe an increase in common exposure risk along with a decrease in contagion risk, following unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy measures in the COVID-19 pandemic. Third, we demonstrate how our framework complements traditional bank stress-testing approaches that focus on individual institutions by analysing second-round effects. In a policy application, we simulate targeted bailouts and show that their effectiveness in stabilizing the system is related to the interconnectedness of the rescued institution.

我们评估传染和共同风险敞口对银行资本的影响，使用源自资产负债表身份的结构性回归框架，并受到结构性VAR文献的启发。传染通过双边风险敞口、低价出售、展期风险和市场情绪产生，而共同风险敞口反映了重叠的投资组合持有。我们使用加拿大银行业的细粒度监管资产负债表和银行间风险敞口数据来估计模型。我们的结果产生了三个关键的见解。首先，在量化宽松开始之前，双边合同风险敞口驱动的传染在一段时间内保持相对稳定。相比之下，非契约性传染渠道不太稳定，并随市场状况而变化。其次，我们观察到，在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间采取了前所未有的财政和货币政策措施后，共同暴露风险增加，传染风险降低。第三，我们展示了我们的框架是如何通过分析第二轮效应来补充传统的银行压力测试方法的。在一个政策应用中，我们模拟了有针对性的救助，并表明它们在稳定系统方面的有效性与被救助机构的相互联系有关。

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引用次数: 0

Artificial intelligence and financial crises 人工智能和金融危机

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability

Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101453

Jon Danielsson , Andreas Uthemann

The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) poses new and poorly understood threats to financial stability. We use a game-theoretic model to analyse the stability impact of AI, finding that it amplifies existing financial system vulnerabilities — leverage, liquidity stress and opacity — through superior information processing, common data, speed and strategic complementarities. The consequence is crises become faster and more severe, where the likelihood of a crisis is directly affected by how effectively the authorities engage with AI. In response, we propose that the financial authorities develop their own AI systems and expertise, establish direct AI-to-AI communication, implement automated crisis facilities and monitor AI use.

人工智能（AI）的迅速采用对金融稳定构成了新的、人们知之甚少的威胁。我们使用博弈论模型来分析人工智能对稳定性的影响，发现它通过卓越的信息处理、通用数据、速度和战略互补性，放大了现有金融体系的脆弱性——杠杆、流动性压力和不透明性。其结果是，危机变得更快、更严重，而发生危机的可能性直接受到当局与人工智能互动的效率的影响。作为回应，我们建议金融当局开发自己的人工智能系统和专业知识，建立人工智能与人工智能之间的直接通信，实施自动化危机设施并监控人工智能的使用。

引用次数: 0

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Journal of Financial Stability

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