Journal of Financial Stability最新文献

The role of bank regulation and supervision (RS) on financial stability and welfare has been subject to ongoing research, especially since the Great Recession. RS is expected to help eliminate the adverse selection and moral hazard problems that are abundant in financial transactions. In this paper, we present a general equilibrium model that is augmented by either a bank regulatory and supervisory agent who chooses the level of RS by maximizing bank profits, or by a macroprudential agent who minimizes non-performing loans (NPL). We compare the long-term outcomes of these scenarios and show that minimizing NPL is feasible for a larger and economically more viable range of parameter values than the alternatives. Moreover, for a comparable set of parameter combinations, the optimal choice of RS that minimizes NPL leads to both higher levels of steady state income and lower interest spreads as compared to RS that maximizes bank profits.

This study establishes a significant positive relation between high quality auditors and long-run post-IPO equity performance. IPOs associated with high-ranked auditors benefit from superior information quality irrespective of underwriter rank, manifesting in significantly better post-IPO equity performance. The auditor certification effect is robust and persists longer than the underwriter certification effect. IPOs, regardless of the underwriter rank, benefit significantly from the auditor reputation effect. Further, the auditor certification effect is more pronounced: (a) when underwriter certification is weak (‘substitution effect’), and (b) in the presence of greater information asymmetry. VC backed IPOs perform significantly better; however, VC reputation has no effect, after controlling for auditor rank and underwriter certification. Our conclusions are reinforced by a battery of robustness checks, including the use of alternative methodologies to address endogeneity, audit quality proxies, performance metrics, model specifications, and validity tests.

We find evidence consistent with risk mispricing in the eurozone sovereign credit market for crisis and non-crisis countries alike, using a novel variable of sovereign debt expansion (DE) that we construct. DE predicts increased default probability, but panel regressions from 2002 to 2017 show a negative association with risk premia, even when controlling for risk appetite and the known determinants of sovereign risk premia. As expected, the negative association was only briefly interrupted by the 2010 Deauville Summit, but it resumed by the onset of the 2011 eurozone crisis. The introduction of quantitative easing in 2015 mutes the negative association, raising the concern of what will happen once quantitative easing ends. Our finding is robust to several model specifications.

This paper examines the impact of bank opacity on European financial stability. Based on a panel dataset of listed European banks covering the period 2002–2018, I find that bank opacity has a significant influence on the institution-specific contribution to the ∆Conditional Value at Risk and Marginal Expected Shortfall. The enforcement mechanism and the policies introduced by accounting standard setters and regulators for the risk disclosure of banks have a positive impact on the reduction of systemic risk. Both the risk reporting in accordance with IFRS 7 and the measures introduced by the Basel Committee in the form of the Basel Pillar 3 regulation led to an increase in transparency and thus an improvement in financial market stability. As an independent enforcement mechanism, the country-specific strength of the external auditing profession plays a significant role in fostering stability. The results are robust, by using both alternative opacity measures and instrumental-variable estimations (2SLS) to control for potential endogeneity.

We analyze how capital requirements from environmental risk exposure affect bank lending to the corporate sector, and how these effects transmit to real economic activity and to greenhouse gas emissions. To do so, we exploit the introduction of a policy in Brazil that required banks to incorporate environmental risks in their capital assessments. Using comprehensive credit data, we find that the policy induces large banks to reallocate their lending away from exposed sectors. The credit contraction has no substantial impact on the real activity and greenhouse gas emissions of these sectors, as smaller banks expand their lending afterwards. However, the policy triggers a moderate labor reallocation from small firms (i.e., those with higher costs of switching lenders) and into large firms within environmentally exposed sectors.

Sri Lanka unilaterally defaulted on its external debt in April 2022, exposing its long-standing economic and financial vulnerabilities and igniting a series of inter-related multiple economic crises—fiscal, debt, currency, inflation, and balance of payments—as well as a vast socio-political upheaval. This paper analyses the economic crisis and its various dimensions to understand the sources of the crisis and draw policy implications. The role of fiscal balances and public debt in the crisis, along with debt sustainability, international sovereign bonds, liquidity crisis, and currency collapse, are analyzed. The root cause of Sri Lanka’s economic crisis was running persistent and large fiscal deficits, which were increasingly financed by unsustainable public debt, particularly foreign commercial borrowings. A substantial reduction and reprofiling of debt through restructuring of both domestic and foreign debt to ensure debt sustainability, meaningful fiscal policy reforms anchored by revenue increases and expenditure rationalization to reduce fiscal deficits, and deep growth-enhancing structural reforms are necessary for medium-term rescue and recovery and long-term growth and stability of Sri Lanka. The findings provide important policy lessons for other emerging markets and middle-income economies.

We show that financial crises are preceded by changes in specific types of narrative information contained in newspaper article titles. Our novel international dataset and the resulting empirical evidence are gathered by integrating information from a large panel of economic news articles in global newspapers between the years 1870 and 2016 with conventional macroeconomic and financial indicators. We find that the predictive information of newspaper article titles that signals coming crisis episodes is substantial over and above the macroeconomic and financial indicators. Feature contribution analysis and crisis case studies reveal that the new indicators capture more detailed, but still generalizable information on the buildup of crises.

First, a rational bubble with a stochastic crash is modelled under conditions of timelessness (or strictly a zero interest rate) and an infinite number of investors. The necessary and sufficient conditions for this bubble are a strictly positive bubble premium and a sufficient number of investors. Second, it is shown that a rational bubble occurs under a strictly negative interest rate. Finally, whether bubbles can be prevented or landed is discussed.

The role played by the banking sector in supporting the green transition has been limited but is expected to increase substantially. We investigate whether the green loans granted by Romanian financial institutions during the period from 2010 to 2020 bear less credit risk compared with other loans in their portfolio. In this respect, we use a novel micro database with information on all green loans granted by a representative share of Romanian financial institutions, combined with debtors’ financial statements. We use different approaches to control for the small share of green loans and find that firms with a sounder financial profile are more likely to access green loans. Using a matched sample of non-green loans, we are able to disentangle the factors that contribute to the increase in credit risk, but we do not observe a significant risk reduction in the case of green loans.

We examine how the repo market operates during liquidity stress by applying network analysis to novel transaction-level data of the overnight gilt repo market including the COVID-19 crisis. We find that during this crisis the repo network becomes more connected, with most institutions relying on previously used counterparties. There are however important changes in the repo volumes and spreads during the stress relative to normal times. There is a significant increase in volumes traded with the central counterparties (CCPs) sector. At the same time non-banks, except hedge funds, decrease borrowing and face higher spreads in the bilateral segment. Overall, this evidence reflects a preference for dealers and banks to transact in the centrally cleared rather than the bilateral segment. Our results can inform the policy debate around the behaviour of banks and non-banks in recent liquidity stress and on widening participation in CCPs by non-banks.