Journal of Financial Stability最新文献

Despite high volatility, Bitcoin is known to offer diversification benefits through its relatively low correlation with stock markets. Unlike traditional safe-haven assets, Bitcoin prices strongly respond to time-varying correlations and diversification benefits. We find that a decrease (an increase) in correlation between Bitcoin and S&P500 index returns strongly predicts higher (lower) Bitcoin returns the next day. Under the classical mean–variance framework, we develop a stylized model of Bitcoin prices utilizing extreme disagreement among heterogeneous Bitcoin investors. When our model is calibrated to the observed predictability of Bitcoin returns, the model simultaneously explains the lack of predictability in traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and long-term treasuries.

We provide a systematic classification and evaluation of the different types of digital currencies. We express skepticism regarding centralized digital currencies and focus our economic analysis on private digital currencies. We specifically highlight the potential for private digital currencies to improve welfare within an emerging market with a selfish government. In that setting, we demonstrate that a private digital currency not only improves citizen welfare but also encourages local investment and enhances government welfare. The fact that a private digital currency enhances government welfare implies a permissive regulatory policy which enables citizens to realize the previously referenced welfare gains.

This paper uses a stylized simulation model to assess the potential impact of climate transition risk on banks’ balance sheets in a climate-stress-testing (i.e. short-run) framework. We show that a moderate to high transition risk increases overall bank losses only relatively modestly if the baseline is a stressed macroeconomic scenario. However, even in a benign macroeconomic scenario, if high-carbon assets are at least 13% riskier than comparable assets a fire sale mechanism could amplify an initially contained shock into a systemic crisis, resulting in significant losses for the EU banking sector. We show that transition risks are concentrated, and find that an additional capital buffer of 0.9% risk-weighted assets on average would be sufficient to protect the system.

This paper quantifies the Too-Systemic-To-Fail (TSTF) paradigm in the Eurozone since the introduction of the Euro through three primary dimensions: Too-Big-To-Fail (TBTF), Too-Interconnected-To-Fail (TITF), and Too-Many-To-Fail (TMTF). We apply prominent systemic risk measures based on public data, including the Granger-causality network (GCN), Delta Conditional Value-at-Risk (ΔCoVaR), Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), and Systemic Risk Index (SRISK). Financial interconnectedness and systemic risk exposure within the 17-member states of the Eurozone are measured on two levels: (i) identifying which financial sectors (banking, diversified financials, insurance, and real estate) are most exposed to systemic risk in the Eurozone at the union level; and (ii) identifying which member state is most exposed to systemic risk within each financial sector at the country level. We extend the original ΔCoVaR, MES and SRISK models by incorporating the bootstrap Kolmogorov-Smirnov stochastic dominance test to rank institutions based on their exposure to systemic risk formally.

We investigate the time variation in credit rating standards awarded to financial institutions of commercial bank credit ratings awarded by the three principal CRAs from 1990 to 2015 in a world-wide context by testing for well-defined structural shifts. We focus on the part of the ratings that cannot be accounted using publicly available information. We test whether major financial events are conditioning, ex-post such changes Distinctively in this paper’s timespan our analysis covers four periods: (i) before and (ii) after the 2001–2 corporate collapses, followed by (iii) before the global financial crisis and (iv) after the global financial crisis. We find substantial differences in the assignment of bank credit ratings among the three major agencies, Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P. Agencies differ both in terms of re-adjustment of ratings but also on the speed of response to the evens. All three agencies tightened ratings during the 2008 crisis and kept reducing them in its aftermath.

We provide a joint non-parametric test to gather insights on the boundaries of applicability of Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF) models. We find that a non-trivial class of models cannot price the U.S. stock market equally weighted portfolio, implying non-monotonic SDFs, especially over the last 50/60 years in (recessionary) periods characterized by higher market volatility. Stocks responsible for this rejection mostly belong to the smallest NYSE market cap decile, are characterized by high idiosyncratic risk, and typically cannot be priced via SDF models where the aggregate level of risk aversion is bigger then 9 or 10. Excluding these stocks increases the ability to explain the cross-section of returns without impairing the ability to span the mean–variance frontier.

Strategic alliances are voluntary corporate arrangements for mutual benefit. Although alliances are common as an alternative to M&As, they require cooperation between alliance partners who continue to operate as independent companies. Thus, relational risk—the probability and consequences of unsatisfactory cooperation or opportunistic behavior—is inherent in alliances and a major determinant of alliance success. In this paper, we examine and find that alliance announcement CARs are higher for companies sharing the same auditor with their alliance partner. Further, our findings suggest that the shared auditor effect is stronger for alliances where potential relational risk between alliance partners is greater. Our findings hold when we use “withdrawn” (i.e., the withdrawal of an announced alliance before its start date) as an alternative, albeit inverse, measure of alliance success. Collectively, we provide novel evidence which suggests that auditors add shareholder value by playing a matchmaking role in alliance formation, building inter-company trust and mitigating relational risk by facilitating the sharing of non-financial information between potential alliance partners among their audit clients.

We present evidence that firms with greater asset redeployability are more likely to engage in green innovation activities, as measured by corporate green patents and citations. This finding supports the notion of funding flexibility and withstands numerous robustness and endogeneity tests. The relationship is particularly pronounced for firms facing high climate change uncertainty, as well as those in high-polluting industries. Moreover, we find further evidence that the pursuit of green innovation is associated with improved firm value over the long term. These insights shed light on how asset redeployability correlates with both innovation outcomes and firm performance within the context of green finance for sustainable development.

Every financial crisis raises questions about how the banking market structure affects the real economy. Although low bank concentration may reduce markups and foster riskier behavior, concentrated banking systems appear more resilient to financial shocks. We use a nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions to compare the transmissions of shocks under different competition and concentration configurations. The results reveal that oligopolistic competition amplifies the effects of the shocks relative to monopolistic competition. The transmission mechanism works through the markups, which are amplified when banking concentration is increased. The desirable banking market structure is determined according to financial stability and social welfare objectives. Moreover, we find that depending on policymakers’ preferences, a banking concentration of five to eight banks balances social welfare and bank stability objectives in the United States.

We examine the determinants of investor flows into, and the potential market fragility imposed by, U.S. municipal bond mutual funds. We find that funds have a linear flow-performance relationship that is consistent with effective liquidity management strategies. Funds use liquid holdings to partially offset net redemptions, but trade municipal bonds in proportion to flows. Funds increase their liquid holdings after flow volatility increases. The fact that funds use a vertical slice approach as a primary strategy is not surprising because they maintain small amounts of liquid securities. Our evidence is consistent with investors not being concerned with municipal bond mutual funds promoting run-risk.