Are less productive firms in developing countries disproportionately affected by climate change both along the intensive and extensive margin? This paper provides an answer in the context of Indonesia using gridded daily weather data and the Indonesian firm-level survey, the Statistik Industri. In a heterogeneous firm model with capital-biased productivity, I incorporate the thermal stress channel and illustrate how less productive firms decides on production and re-optimize factor intensity as temperature increases. Empirically, I highlight the presence of survival bias intrinsic to firm-level intensive margin analysis. I found that: First, under heat shocks, the initially less productive firms are more likely to exit. Second, on the aggregate, resources reallocate from less to more productive firms within industries. Among surviving firms,, we observe factor substitution from unskilled to skilled workers, and firms switching from domestic to foreign intermediate input when temperature increases. The initially more productive firms that survived also incur output gain under heat shocks possibly due to shifts in market structure and/or selection. These evidence highlight the importance of incorporating the manufacturing sector in the damage functions of traditional Integrated Assessment Models such as DICE/FUND. It also provides a potential explanation as to why poor countries are more affected by temperature shocks from the perspective of firm size distribution. ∗I thank my advisors Gordon Hanson and Richard Carson for advice and encouragement, Laura Beaudin, Julie Cullen, Gordon Dahl, David Victor, Roger Gordon, Teevrat Garg, Mark Jacobsen, Jeff Shrader, Josh Graff-Zivin, and many others at the UCSD applied micro seminar and the WEAI for comments. I’m grateful to Sam Bazzi for generously sharing data. †Correspondence: Department of Economics, University of California at San Diego. Email: w6xie@ucsd.edu
{"title":"Heterogeneous firms under regional temperature shocks: exit and reallocation, with evidence from Indonesia","authors":"V. Xie","doi":"10.1086/720776","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/720776","url":null,"abstract":"Are less productive firms in developing countries disproportionately affected by climate change both along the intensive and extensive margin? This paper provides an answer in the context of Indonesia using gridded daily weather data and the Indonesian firm-level survey, the Statistik Industri. In a heterogeneous firm model with capital-biased productivity, I incorporate the thermal stress channel and illustrate how less productive firms decides on production and re-optimize factor intensity as temperature increases. Empirically, I highlight the presence of survival bias intrinsic to firm-level intensive margin analysis. I found that: First, under heat shocks, the initially less productive firms are more likely to exit. Second, on the aggregate, resources reallocate from less to more productive firms within industries. Among surviving firms,, we observe factor substitution from unskilled to skilled workers, and firms switching from domestic to foreign intermediate input when temperature increases. The initially more productive firms that survived also incur output gain under heat shocks possibly due to shifts in market structure and/or selection. These evidence highlight the importance of incorporating the manufacturing sector in the damage functions of traditional Integrated Assessment Models such as DICE/FUND. It also provides a potential explanation as to why poor countries are more affected by temperature shocks from the perspective of firm size distribution. ∗I thank my advisors Gordon Hanson and Richard Carson for advice and encouragement, Laura Beaudin, Julie Cullen, Gordon Dahl, David Victor, Roger Gordon, Teevrat Garg, Mark Jacobsen, Jeff Shrader, Josh Graff-Zivin, and many others at the UCSD applied micro seminar and the WEAI for comments. I’m grateful to Sam Bazzi for generously sharing data. †Correspondence: Department of Economics, University of California at San Diego. Email: w6xie@ucsd.edu","PeriodicalId":48055,"journal":{"name":"Economic Development and Cultural Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41425064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
By exploiting an unexpected policy change in the form of drastic tariffs reduction across several industries in Peru during the 2000s we are able to causally show that in districts where industries’ employment are predominantly male, trade liberalization produced an increase in physical intimate partner violence of 36 percentage points with respect to control districts in our preferred specification. We find no such difference in districts where industries’ employment is predominantly female. These findings are original and consistent with several hypotheses in the social sciences. Our results are robust to falsification and placebo tests, sensitivity to initial conditions, conflation of past and current shocks, selective migration, permutation tests and input-tariffs considerations. Finally, we find considerable heterogeneity, as education and the age of first marriage appear to be key variables that correlate with our findings.
{"title":"Does Trade Liberalization Foster Intimate Partner Violence?","authors":"Alberto Chong, Daniel Velásquez","doi":"10.1086/720717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/720717","url":null,"abstract":"By exploiting an unexpected policy change in the form of drastic tariffs reduction across several industries in Peru during the 2000s we are able to causally show that in districts where industries’ employment are predominantly male, trade liberalization produced an increase in physical intimate partner violence of 36 percentage points with respect to control districts in our preferred specification. We find no such difference in districts where industries’ employment is predominantly female. These findings are original and consistent with several hypotheses in the social sciences. Our results are robust to falsification and placebo tests, sensitivity to initial conditions, conflation of past and current shocks, selective migration, permutation tests and input-tariffs considerations. Finally, we find considerable heterogeneity, as education and the age of first marriage appear to be key variables that correlate with our findings.","PeriodicalId":48055,"journal":{"name":"Economic Development and Cultural Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49016259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Olga Fuentes, J. Lafortune, Julio Riutort, José Tessada, Félix Villatoro
We randomly offer to workers in Chile personalized versus generalized information about their pension savings and forecasted pension income. Personalized information increased the probability and amounts of voluntary contributions after one year without crowding-out other forms of savings. Personalization appears to be very important: individuals who overestimated their pension at the time of the intervention saved more. Thus, a person’s inability to understand how the pension system affects them may partially explain low pension savings. Despite the significant response to the intervention, its temporary nature and size suggest that information should be combined with other elements to increase its efficiency.
{"title":"Personalized Information as a Tool to Improve Pension Savings: Results from a Randomized Control Trial in Chile","authors":"Olga Fuentes, J. Lafortune, Julio Riutort, José Tessada, Félix Villatoro","doi":"10.1086/720718","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/720718","url":null,"abstract":"We randomly offer to workers in Chile personalized versus generalized information about their pension savings and forecasted pension income. Personalized information increased the probability and amounts of voluntary contributions after one year without crowding-out other forms of savings. Personalization appears to be very important: individuals who overestimated their pension at the time of the intervention saved more. Thus, a person’s inability to understand how the pension system affects them may partially explain low pension savings. Despite the significant response to the intervention, its temporary nature and size suggest that information should be combined with other elements to increase its efficiency.","PeriodicalId":48055,"journal":{"name":"Economic Development and Cultural Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41842886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In sub-Saharan Africa, economic aspirations often conflict with aspirations to follow traditional social obligations. We test whether adolescents are influenced by friends when deciding which to prioritize. To do so, we elicit the preferences and perceived competition between economic and social aspirations of 553 Ugandan students, as well as their friendship ties. Using characteristics of nonoverlapping friends as instrumental variables, we identify strong peer effects. They are stronger with more interaction among friends, or when the information shared is more relevant or more important relative to other signals. We find no peer effect on the perceived competition between aspirations.
{"title":"What Should I Aspire to? Peer Effects in Adolescents’ Friendship Networks","authors":"Ben d’Exelle, R. Habraken, A. Verschoor","doi":"10.1086/720543","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/720543","url":null,"abstract":"In sub-Saharan Africa, economic aspirations often conflict with aspirations to follow traditional social obligations. We test whether adolescents are influenced by friends when deciding which to prioritize. To do so, we elicit the preferences and perceived competition between economic and social aspirations of 553 Ugandan students, as well as their friendship ties. Using characteristics of nonoverlapping friends as instrumental variables, we identify strong peer effects. They are stronger with more interaction among friends, or when the information shared is more relevant or more important relative to other signals. We find no peer effect on the perceived competition between aspirations.","PeriodicalId":48055,"journal":{"name":"Economic Development and Cultural Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44061878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
H. Mesfin, F. Cecchi, Eleonora E M Nillesen, N. Tirivayi
We investigate the role of overconfidence and trust in farmers’ information-seeking behavior using a lab-in-the-field experiment in Ethiopia. Our results show that overconfidence is widespread among farmers in our sample, predicts less information-seeking, and is associated with an efficiency loss. Moreover, we find that farmers tend to seek more information from extension agents than from peer farmers and that information-seeking increases when the source is perceived as more knowledgeable. When aiming to increase the adoption of productivity-enhancing practices, farmers’ overconfidence in their own information set and their trust in the quality of information shared should not be overlooked.
{"title":"Overconfidence, Trust, and Information-seeking among Smallholder Farmers: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia","authors":"H. Mesfin, F. Cecchi, Eleonora E M Nillesen, N. Tirivayi","doi":"10.1086/719464","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/719464","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the role of overconfidence and trust in farmers’ information-seeking behavior using a lab-in-the-field experiment in Ethiopia. Our results show that overconfidence is widespread among farmers in our sample, predicts less information-seeking, and is associated with an efficiency loss. Moreover, we find that farmers tend to seek more information from extension agents than from peer farmers and that information-seeking increases when the source is perceived as more knowledgeable. When aiming to increase the adoption of productivity-enhancing practices, farmers’ overconfidence in their own information set and their trust in the quality of information shared should not be overlooked.","PeriodicalId":48055,"journal":{"name":"Economic Development and Cultural Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42685114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yue Ma, S. Sylvia, Dimitris Friesen, Katherine Overbey, Alexis Medina, S. Rozelle
Besides increasing knowledge, there is another potential mechanism at work when information is delivered to a treatment group: increasing the salience of existing knowledge. We use data from a randomized controlled trial of a health information campaign to explore the relative importance of this additional mechanism in a real-world environment. The health information campaign addressed the benefits of wearing eyeglasses and provided information meant to address the common misconceptions that contribute to low adoption rates of eyeglasses. In total, our study sample included 931 students with poor vision (mostly myopia), their parents, and their homeroom teachers in 84 primary schools in rural China. We find that the health information campaign was able to successfully increase student ownership and wearing of eyeglasses, relative to a control group. We demonstrate that the campaign had a larger impact when levels of preexisting information among certain subgroups of participants—namely, parents of students—were higher while we simultaneously provided new information to others. This suggests that the interaction between directed attention (i.e., salience) and baseline knowledge is important. We do not, however, find similar increases among teachers or the students themselves and additionally find no impacts on academic outcomes.
{"title":"The Salience of Information: Evidence from a Health Information Campaign in Rural China","authors":"Yue Ma, S. Sylvia, Dimitris Friesen, Katherine Overbey, Alexis Medina, S. Rozelle","doi":"10.1086/720005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/720005","url":null,"abstract":"Besides increasing knowledge, there is another potential mechanism at work when information is delivered to a treatment group: increasing the salience of existing knowledge. We use data from a randomized controlled trial of a health information campaign to explore the relative importance of this additional mechanism in a real-world environment. The health information campaign addressed the benefits of wearing eyeglasses and provided information meant to address the common misconceptions that contribute to low adoption rates of eyeglasses. In total, our study sample included 931 students with poor vision (mostly myopia), their parents, and their homeroom teachers in 84 primary schools in rural China. We find that the health information campaign was able to successfully increase student ownership and wearing of eyeglasses, relative to a control group. We demonstrate that the campaign had a larger impact when levels of preexisting information among certain subgroups of participants—namely, parents of students—were higher while we simultaneously provided new information to others. This suggests that the interaction between directed attention (i.e., salience) and baseline knowledge is important. We do not, however, find similar increases among teachers or the students themselves and additionally find no impacts on academic outcomes.","PeriodicalId":48055,"journal":{"name":"Economic Development and Cultural Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46779246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We estimate whether opening of new schools increases educational attainment and affects civic engagement, political participation, and political selection in Malian villages. We compare the differences in educational attainment between individuals below and above the age of 9 as of school opening date by using a donut regression discontinuity design. Opening of schools drastically increases school enrollment. Using this exogenous variation in school enrollment as an instrument, we show that education increases participation in village associations, involvement in local political life, and the number of elected politicians from a village. Most of the effect of education is concentrated among individuals belonging to well-established families. This suggests a redistribution of roles to the dominant group of a village.
{"title":"Education, Civic Engagement and Political Participation: Evidence From School Construction in Malian Villages","authors":"P. Maarek, P. André","doi":"10.1086/719622","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/719622","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate whether opening of new schools increases educational attainment and affects civic engagement, political participation, and political selection in Malian villages. We compare the differences in educational attainment between individuals below and above the age of 9 as of school opening date by using a donut regression discontinuity design. Opening of schools drastically increases school enrollment. Using this exogenous variation in school enrollment as an instrument, we show that education increases participation in village associations, involvement in local political life, and the number of elected politicians from a village. Most of the effect of education is concentrated among individuals belonging to well-established families. This suggests a redistribution of roles to the dominant group of a village.","PeriodicalId":48055,"journal":{"name":"Economic Development and Cultural Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48254655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Thornton, H. Bhorat, Adaiah Lilenstein, Jabulile Monnakgotla, Kirsten van der Zee
How might South Africa's concentrated income inequality affect the incidence of burglary? Theoretically, burglary increases with income and inequality, but the linearity of these relationships can be interrupted by investment in private security. This idea has not been thoroughly tested before, and South Africa presents an interesting context in which to do so, given its high level of income inequality and fear of crime. We find both income and inequality have inverse U-shaped relationships with burglary, rationalized as the outcome of elites investing in private security. Our results also suggest that income and inequality interact: when precincts are richer, more inequality leads to more burglary, but when precincts are poorer, more inequality leads to less burglary. We suggest that when areas are already poor and unequal, more inequality could mean the widening of an already insurmountable gap between the ability of elites to protect themselves and the ability of low-income individuals to break and enter.
{"title":"Crime, income and inequality: non-linearities under extreme inequality in South Africa","authors":"A. Thornton, H. Bhorat, Adaiah Lilenstein, Jabulile Monnakgotla, Kirsten van der Zee","doi":"10.1086/719646","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/719646","url":null,"abstract":"How might South Africa's concentrated income inequality affect the incidence of burglary? Theoretically, burglary increases with income and inequality, but the linearity of these relationships can be interrupted by investment in private security. This idea has not been thoroughly tested before, and South Africa presents an interesting context in which to do so, given its high level of income inequality and fear of crime. We find both income and inequality have inverse U-shaped relationships with burglary, rationalized as the outcome of elites investing in private security. Our results also suggest that income and inequality interact: when precincts are richer, more inequality leads to more burglary, but when precincts are poorer, more inequality leads to less burglary. We suggest that when areas are already poor and unequal, more inequality could mean the widening of an already insurmountable gap between the ability of elites to protect themselves and the ability of low-income individuals to break and enter.","PeriodicalId":48055,"journal":{"name":"Economic Development and Cultural Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45662502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the impact of massive refugee inflows on the mobility patterns of host communities. We rely on panel data from before and after the Syrian war and exploit the geographical distribution of Syrians across Jordanian subdistricts. Using difference in differences, we find that native outflows of the camp-hosting areas increased by 27%. This increased residential mobility out of the camp-hosting areas seems to be triggered by an increase in rents and a crowding out of Jordanian students by Syrians in schools. Our results also show that the Syrian presence increased Jordanians’ job location mobility into the camp areas.
{"title":"Syrian Refugees and the Migration Dynamics of Jordanians: Moving In or Moving Out?","authors":"Nelly El-Mallakh, J. Wahba","doi":"10.1086/717281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/717281","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the impact of massive refugee inflows on the mobility patterns of host communities. We rely on panel data from before and after the Syrian war and exploit the geographical distribution of Syrians across Jordanian subdistricts. Using difference in differences, we find that native outflows of the camp-hosting areas increased by 27%. This increased residential mobility out of the camp-hosting areas seems to be triggered by an increase in rents and a crowding out of Jordanian students by Syrians in schools. Our results also show that the Syrian presence increased Jordanians’ job location mobility into the camp areas.","PeriodicalId":48055,"journal":{"name":"Economic Development and Cultural Change","volume":"71 1","pages":"1283 - 1330"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48905793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In light of global climate change, the variance of rainfall is projected to increase substantially, affecting every country. In this paper, we examine how exposure to rainfall during the first 1,000 days of life influences women’s long-term human capital accumulation in the context of 28 African countries. Exploiting the exogenous deviations of rainfall from the historical norms, we document a positive relationship between rainfall during the first 1,000 days and women’s educational attainment. The effects mostly come from rainfall variability in agricultural season. There is also suggestive evidence that larger impacts are detected among women from low-income countries and women living in areas with poor market integration.
{"title":"Early-life Rainfall and Long-term Human Capital Accumulation of African Women","authors":"Kien Le, My Nguyen","doi":"10.1086/718188","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718188","url":null,"abstract":"In light of global climate change, the variance of rainfall is projected to increase substantially, affecting every country. In this paper, we examine how exposure to rainfall during the first 1,000 days of life influences women’s long-term human capital accumulation in the context of 28 African countries. Exploiting the exogenous deviations of rainfall from the historical norms, we document a positive relationship between rainfall during the first 1,000 days and women’s educational attainment. The effects mostly come from rainfall variability in agricultural season. There is also suggestive evidence that larger impacts are detected among women from low-income countries and women living in areas with poor market integration.","PeriodicalId":48055,"journal":{"name":"Economic Development and Cultural Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42762732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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