Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-3-122-142
Z.Kh. Srojiddinova
The article is devoted to the reform of public finance management in the Republic of Uzbekistan. Its informative basis consisted of laws, by-laws and a large body of empirical information material on the country’s public finance system from 1991 to the present, as well as on its development in accordance with the directions and measures defined by two strategies for reforming public finance management of the Republic of Uzbekistan (2007, 2020). The article shows its relevance, purpose and objectives, describes stages of reforming and development of the public finance system of Uzbekistan, as well as achieved results, problems and directions of its further improvement.
{"title":"Public Finance System: Management Reform, Directions of Improvement in the Republic of Uzbekistan","authors":"Z.Kh. Srojiddinova","doi":"10.31107/2075-1990-2023-3-122-142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-3-122-142","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the reform of public finance management in the Republic of Uzbekistan. Its informative basis consisted of laws, by-laws and a large body of empirical information material on the country’s public finance system from 1991 to the present, as well as on its development in accordance with the directions and measures defined by two strategies for reforming public finance management of the Republic of Uzbekistan (2007, 2020). The article shows its relevance, purpose and objectives, describes stages of reforming and development of the public finance system of Uzbekistan, as well as achieved results, problems and directions of its further improvement.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78931027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-3-104-121
M. Malkina, R. Balakin
The paper examines the relationship between financial and industrial stresses in the Russian economy in 2006–2019, mediated by the monetary policy of the state. Stress indices are constructed on the basi of a number of financial market and industrial sector indicators of the Russian economy. These variables are aggregated using the principal component analysis. Stress indices are calculated as the moving difference between the standard deviation and the mean value of the first principal component. The graphical and correlation analysis confirms that industrial stress in the Russian economy grows during financial crises, accompanied by an increase in credit interest rates (including the key rate) and the scale of refinancing of credit institutions by the Bank of Russia. Based on the construction of ARDL models, we obtained convincing evidence of the positive impact of both a short-term increase in the key interest rate and a longer increase in the scale of refinancing of credit institutions by the Bank of Russia on the reduction of financial and industrial stresses in the Russian economy, which, however, appears in different time intervals. We concluded that the combined management of industrial and financial stresses, taking into account their interaction and sensitivity to different instruments, requires the search for the optimal combination of monetary regulation methods. The results obtained may be useful in conducting a prudent monetary policy in periods of financial instability.
{"title":"The Relation of Financial and Industrial Stresses to Monetary Policy Parameters in the Russian Economy","authors":"M. Malkina, R. Balakin","doi":"10.31107/2075-1990-2023-3-104-121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-3-104-121","url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines the relationship between financial and industrial stresses in the Russian economy in 2006–2019, mediated by the monetary policy of the state. Stress indices are constructed on the basi of a number of financial market and industrial sector indicators of the Russian economy. These variables are aggregated using the principal component analysis. Stress indices are calculated as the moving difference between the standard deviation and the mean value of the first principal component. The graphical and correlation analysis confirms that industrial stress in the Russian economy grows during financial crises, accompanied by an increase in credit interest rates (including the key rate) and the scale of refinancing of credit institutions by the Bank of Russia. Based on the construction of ARDL models, we obtained convincing evidence of the positive impact of both a short-term increase in the key interest rate and a longer increase in the scale of refinancing of credit institutions by the Bank of Russia on the reduction of financial and industrial stresses in the Russian economy, which, however, appears in different time intervals. We concluded that the combined management of industrial and financial stresses, taking into account their interaction and sensitivity to different instruments, requires the search for the optimal combination of monetary regulation methods. The results obtained may be useful in conducting a prudent monetary policy in periods of financial instability.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89947948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-3-78-90
I. Arlashkin
During the structural transformation of the Russian economy, it is especially important to ensure the balance of consolidated regional budgets, in particular through tax decentralization. The article presents the results of modeling the redistribution of tax revenues between the federal and regional levels of the budget system. The purpose of modeling was to find such parameters of tax decentralization which do not worsen the horizontal balance of consolidated regional budgets. The scientific novelty of the paper lies in modeling the effects of tax decentralization on the level of differentiation of regional tax revenues according to the latest available tax and budget reporting data for 2019–2022. As a result, it was shown that an increase in regional shares for personal income tax, certain components of the mineral extraction tax, water tax and fees for the use of water biological resources up to 100% will not lead to a significant increase in inter-regional differentiation of tax revenues. The prospects of the study are to take into account the impact of the structural transformation of the economy on the territorial distribution of tax bases and the level of taxation, as well as to detail the calculations for personal income tax and mineral extraction tax as new data are accumulated.
{"title":"On the Possibilities of Tax Decentralization in Russia","authors":"I. Arlashkin","doi":"10.31107/2075-1990-2023-3-78-90","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-3-78-90","url":null,"abstract":"During the structural transformation of the Russian economy, it is especially important to ensure the balance of consolidated regional budgets, in particular through tax decentralization. The article presents the results of modeling the redistribution of tax revenues between the federal and regional levels of the budget system. The purpose of modeling was to find such parameters of tax decentralization which do not worsen the horizontal balance of consolidated regional budgets. The scientific novelty of the paper lies in modeling the effects of tax decentralization on the level of differentiation of regional tax revenues according to the latest available tax and budget reporting data for 2019–2022. As a result, it was shown that an increase in regional shares for personal income tax, certain components of the mineral extraction tax, water tax and fees for the use of water biological resources up to 100% will not lead to a significant increase in inter-regional differentiation of tax revenues. The prospects of the study are to take into account the impact of the structural transformation of the economy on the territorial distribution of tax bases and the level of taxation, as well as to detail the calculations for personal income tax and mineral extraction tax as new data are accumulated.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87340636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-3-41-58
V. Gromov
State regulation of the anthropogenic impact on nature, including the policy of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, makes it necessary to support those enterprises that are willing to invest in climate projects. The relevance of incentives in this field is confirmed by the task set by the Arctic Council chaired by Russia at the Research and Training Conference on Climate Change and Permafrost Thawing 2023, namely to find reasonable, practical solutions for adapting the global economy to such changes. In the area of taxation, there is a solution prepared by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development willing to provide a package of tax benefits for investors. According to the draft, they should be exempted from paying VAT and income tax. At the same time, the variety of previously introduced preferential ‘investment’ tax regimes calls into question the rationality of new tax incentives due to the assumption of their redundancy. The fact is that they have similarities in the basic idea of support aimed at the growth of regional investment activity. For this reason, the purpose of the article is to answer the following questions: Is it really worthwhile to expand the number of tax regimes once again? Is it possible to use existing incentives instead of introducing new ones? To achieve the purpose, we rely on the results of comprehensive, comparative analysis of the developed incentives and the current tax preferential regimes on the example of the Sakhalin region. It stands out among other regions of Russia by its carbon-neutral pilot project and the greater number of preferences already enjoyed by investors, so we can provide representative and practically significant results. The hypothesis of the study is based on the concept of complementarity, meaning that the newly developed tax incentives will contribute to the complexity of the Russian tax system but will not cross the scope of the other mentioned tax regimes. The results show that climate projects have their own specifics in terms of objectives as well as areas of investment that require special approaches in tax policy, since investors create a useful economic effect in the form of reducing greenhouse gas emissions rather than producing goods, and no taxable profit is generated until the investor profitably sells carbon units in the market.
{"title":"Assessing the Complementarity of Preferential Tax Regimes in the Sakhalin Region","authors":"V. Gromov","doi":"10.31107/2075-1990-2023-3-41-58","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-3-41-58","url":null,"abstract":"State regulation of the anthropogenic impact on nature, including the policy of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, makes it necessary to support those enterprises that are willing to invest in climate projects. The relevance of incentives in this field is confirmed by the task set by the Arctic Council chaired by Russia at the Research and Training Conference on Climate Change and Permafrost Thawing 2023, namely to find reasonable, practical solutions for adapting the global economy to such changes. In the area of taxation, there is a solution prepared by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development willing to provide a package of tax benefits for investors. According to the draft, they should be exempted from paying VAT and income tax. At the same time, the variety of previously introduced preferential ‘investment’ tax regimes calls into question the rationality of new tax incentives due to the assumption of their redundancy. The fact is that they have similarities in the basic idea of support aimed at the growth of regional investment activity. For this reason, the purpose of the article is to answer the following questions: Is it really worthwhile to expand the number of tax regimes once again? Is it possible to use existing incentives instead of introducing new ones? To achieve the purpose, we rely on the results of comprehensive, comparative analysis of the developed incentives and the current tax preferential regimes on the example of the Sakhalin region. It stands out among other regions of Russia by its carbon-neutral pilot project and the greater number of preferences already enjoyed by investors, so we can provide representative and practically significant results. The hypothesis of the study is based on the concept of complementarity, meaning that the newly developed tax incentives will contribute to the complexity of the Russian tax system but will not cross the scope of the other mentioned tax regimes. The results show that climate projects have their own specifics in terms of objectives as well as areas of investment that require special approaches in tax policy, since investors create a useful economic effect in the form of reducing greenhouse gas emissions rather than producing goods, and no taxable profit is generated until the investor profitably sells carbon units in the market.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"11 23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87688982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-3-9-24
S. D. Shatalov, M. Pinskaya, V.A. Prokaev, K.N. Tsagan-Mandzshieva
The article considers the conceptual approaches to the taxation of natural resource use. The purpose of the article is to identify the governmental tax risks in the implementation of various scenarios of mining rent withdrawal and to substantiate the methodology of resource taxation in extraction and processing of solid minerals, based on the principle of tax justice. The authors reveal the factors of tax risks for the state in exercising its sovereign right to the mining rent. The article formulates the requirements to the tax system, the observance of which will allow to consider the factors of the state tax risks. Advantages and disadvantages of certain fiscal payments for extraction of mineral raw materials are determined. It is shown that the resource tax should be based on the present value, calculated as the net present value of the investor for the entire lifetime of the project. The authors propose a mining rent taxation mechanism, which would increase budget revenues while maintaining the incentives for mining companies to invest in exploration. The main forks in the design of such a rent income tax are shown
{"title":"The Rent Taxation Concept for Solid Minerals Extraction and Recovery","authors":"S. D. Shatalov, M. Pinskaya, V.A. Prokaev, K.N. Tsagan-Mandzshieva","doi":"10.31107/2075-1990-2023-3-9-24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-3-9-24","url":null,"abstract":"The article considers the conceptual approaches to the taxation of natural resource use. The purpose of the article is to identify the governmental tax risks in the implementation of various scenarios of mining rent withdrawal and to substantiate the methodology of resource taxation in extraction and processing of solid minerals, based on the principle of tax justice. The authors reveal the factors of tax risks for the state in exercising its sovereign right to the mining rent. The article formulates the requirements to the tax system, the observance of which will allow to consider the factors of the state tax risks. Advantages and disadvantages of certain fiscal payments for extraction of mineral raw materials are determined. It is shown that the resource tax should be based on the present value, calculated as the net present value of the investor for the entire lifetime of the project. The authors propose a mining rent taxation mechanism, which would increase budget revenues while maintaining the incentives for mining companies to invest in exploration. The main forks in the design of such a rent income tax are shown","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"64 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90483089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-15DOI: 10.1080/0015198X.2022.2129947
David Blanchett
This paper introduces a cohesive series of models designed to improve retirement income projections. First, the retirement income goal (i.e., liability) is decomposed based on assumed spending elasticity (e.g., “needs” and “wants”). Second, spending is assumed to evolve throughout retirement using a dynamic withdrawal strategy leveraging the funded ratio concept. Third, optimal strategies are determined using an expected utility model based on prospect theory, which also yields a client-friendly outcomes metric. Overall, this framework can result in advice and guidance that is notably different than models using more basic (and common) assumptions, especially approaches relying on probability of success-related metrics.
{"title":"Redefining the Optimal Retirement Income Strategy","authors":"David Blanchett","doi":"10.1080/0015198X.2022.2129947","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198X.2022.2129947","url":null,"abstract":"This paper introduces a cohesive series of models designed to improve retirement income projections. First, the retirement income goal (i.e., liability) is decomposed based on assumed spending elasticity (e.g., “needs” and “wants”). Second, spending is assumed to evolve throughout retirement using a dynamic withdrawal strategy leveraging the funded ratio concept. Third, optimal strategies are determined using an expected utility model based on prospect theory, which also yields a client-friendly outcomes metric. Overall, this framework can result in advice and guidance that is notably different than models using more basic (and common) assumptions, especially approaches relying on probability of success-related metrics.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"79 1","pages":"5 - 16"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47769936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-13DOI: 10.1080/0015198X.2022.2150500
Mikheil Esakia, Felix Goltz
Abstract We propose firm-level measures of exposures to macroeconomic risks that substantially improve out-of-sample robustness compared to standard estimation approaches. Systematic equity strategies constructed from such measures offer more consistent macro exposures out of sample than strategies that allocate across sectors or equity-style factors. We do not find significant cost to the performance of such systematic strategies in exchange for targeting exposures to macroeconomic risks, such as interest rates, term spread, credit spread, or inflation. Our methodology can be used to construct equity portfolios for investors who have hedging demands or active views regarding macroeconomic conditions.
{"title":"Targeting Macroeconomic Exposures in Equity Portfolios: A Firm-Level Measurement Approach for Out-of-Sample Robustness","authors":"Mikheil Esakia, Felix Goltz","doi":"10.1080/0015198X.2022.2150500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198X.2022.2150500","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We propose firm-level measures of exposures to macroeconomic risks that substantially improve out-of-sample robustness compared to standard estimation approaches. Systematic equity strategies constructed from such measures offer more consistent macro exposures out of sample than strategies that allocate across sectors or equity-style factors. We do not find significant cost to the performance of such systematic strategies in exchange for targeting exposures to macroeconomic risks, such as interest rates, term spread, credit spread, or inflation. Our methodology can be used to construct equity portfolios for investors who have hedging demands or active views regarding macroeconomic conditions.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"79 1","pages":"37 - 57"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48240555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-01DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2022-6-91-110
Vladislav V. Afanasev, Yulia A. Tarasova
For many years, financial ratios have been used as predictors of default. However, biases in financial statements of companies in Russia call into question the applicability of this approach. An alternative approach is to use non-financial data in such models. The purpose of this paper is to find out whether non-financial data, such as information related to court trials, unscheduled inspections and firm age, can significantly improve the accuracy of default prediction in the housing and utilities management industry. This part of the services sector is chosen as one of the riskiest industries, in which firm default affects not only conventional stakeholders such as banks, shareholders, employees, etc, but also customers. A dataset of 378 housing and utilities management firms which have faced default and 765 solvent “healthy peers” is used to create and test default prediction models. Logistic regression is used as the classification algorithm. The results suggest that addition of non-financial data can significantly improve the accuracy of default prediction, and moreover, non-financial data can be used exclusively without any financial ratios to create classification models which show acceptable accuracy. The paper contributes to the existing literature by providing new evidence on the benefits of using non-financial data in default prediction models. In addition, we were able to collect a unique dataset of unscheduled inspections and use this data for default prediction, which appears to be the first case of this kind.
{"title":"Default Prediction for Housing and Utilities Management Firms Using Non-Financial Data","authors":"Vladislav V. Afanasev, Yulia A. Tarasova","doi":"10.31107/2075-1990-2022-6-91-110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2022-6-91-110","url":null,"abstract":"For many years, financial ratios have been used as predictors of default. However, biases in financial statements of companies in Russia call into question the applicability of this approach. An alternative approach is to use non-financial data in such models. The purpose of this paper is to find out whether non-financial data, such as information related to court trials, unscheduled inspections and firm age, can significantly improve the accuracy of default prediction in the housing and utilities management industry. This part of the services sector is chosen as one of the riskiest industries, in which firm default affects not only conventional stakeholders such as banks, shareholders, employees, etc, but also customers. A dataset of 378 housing and utilities management firms which have faced default and 765 solvent “healthy peers” is used to create and test default prediction models. Logistic regression is used as the classification algorithm. The results suggest that addition of non-financial data can significantly improve the accuracy of default prediction, and moreover, non-financial data can be used exclusively without any financial ratios to create classification models which show acceptable accuracy. The paper contributes to the existing literature by providing new evidence on the benefits of using non-financial data in default prediction models. In addition, we were able to collect a unique dataset of unscheduled inspections and use this data for default prediction, which appears to be the first case of this kind.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86057769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-01DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2022-6-74-90
Daria S. Leonteva
This study investigates an alternative approach to estimating the probability of default. The introduction of credit spreads as market measures of default into an accounting-based model attempts to enhance the predictive power of classical approach models which analyze only balance sheet data. This paper identifies which of the two market measures of credit spread — the Z-spread or the I-spread — has an advantage in the context of robustness of the bankruptcy prediction models. Using two techniques — logistic regression and a gradient boosting machine approach, as well as a sample of annual series of 80 financial ratios for 385 U.S. listed companies which issue corporate bonds — evidence is obtained that the I-spread has higher predictive power in both techniques. The better performance of the I-spread can be explained by the fact that the accuracy of the Z-spread calculation can be misleading because different methods of interpolation of the yield curve are used. In addition, the predictive power of the chosen techniques is also compared. The up-to-date gradient boosting machine framework performs better on the test sample. These findings may encourage managers to implement additional market characteristics in the analysis and apply modern techniques rather than the classic ones — logistic regressions and multiple discriminant analyses models — to predict inconsistency in corporate performance.
{"title":"Using Market Indicators to Refine Estimates of Corporate Bankruptcy Probabilities","authors":"Daria S. Leonteva","doi":"10.31107/2075-1990-2022-6-74-90","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2022-6-74-90","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates an alternative approach to estimating the probability of default. The introduction of credit spreads as market measures of default into an accounting-based model attempts to enhance the predictive power of classical approach models which analyze only balance sheet data. This paper identifies which of the two market measures of credit spread — the Z-spread or the I-spread — has an advantage in the context of robustness of the bankruptcy prediction models. Using two techniques — logistic regression and a gradient boosting machine approach, as well as a sample of annual series of 80 financial ratios for 385 U.S. listed companies which issue corporate bonds — evidence is obtained that the I-spread has higher predictive power in both techniques. The better performance of the I-spread can be explained by the fact that the accuracy of the Z-spread calculation can be misleading because different methods of interpolation of the yield curve are used. In addition, the predictive power of the chosen techniques is also compared. The up-to-date gradient boosting machine framework performs better on the test sample. These findings may encourage managers to implement additional market characteristics in the analysis and apply modern techniques rather than the classic ones — logistic regressions and multiple discriminant analyses models — to predict inconsistency in corporate performance.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83258570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-01DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2022-6-25-43
Aleksandra L. Osmolovskaya-Suslina, Sofiia R. Borisova
The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the impact of 2022 external shocks on Russia’s sub-federal budget revenues and to identify the main revenue side risks that should be considered if sanctions pressure increases. The relevance of the study is determined by the time factor: less than six months have passed since the beginning of the crisis. The authors examine the dynamics of regional budget revenues in 2022 as a whole and provide a detailed qualitative analysis of the situation in eleven regions, selected in accordance with the dynamics of their budget revenues in March-June 2022 (soon after the introduction of sanctions). The analysis shows that regional budget revenues have already begun to respond to the sanctions, however, the external shocks manifest themselves in different regions with different speed. It was revealed that the most vulnerable to the crisis is the CIT, while the PIT is relatively stable. The main risk indicators for regional budget revenues are the share of the extractive sector in GRP, the structure of reginal foreign trade (both by commodity and by country) and the state anti-crisis support of SMEs.
{"title":"Regional Budget Revenues in Early 2022: Main Trends and Risk Factors","authors":"Aleksandra L. Osmolovskaya-Suslina, Sofiia R. Borisova","doi":"10.31107/2075-1990-2022-6-25-43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2022-6-25-43","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the impact of 2022 external shocks on Russia’s sub-federal budget revenues and to identify the main revenue side risks that should be considered if sanctions pressure increases. The relevance of the study is determined by the time factor: less than six months have passed since the beginning of the crisis. The authors examine the dynamics of regional budget revenues in 2022 as a whole and provide a detailed qualitative analysis of the situation in eleven regions, selected in accordance with the dynamics of their budget revenues in March-June 2022 (soon after the introduction of sanctions). The analysis shows that regional budget revenues have already begun to respond to the sanctions, however, the external shocks manifest themselves in different regions with different speed. It was revealed that the most vulnerable to the crisis is the CIT, while the PIT is relatively stable. The main risk indicators for regional budget revenues are the share of the extractive sector in GRP, the structure of reginal foreign trade (both by commodity and by country) and the state anti-crisis support of SMEs.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"100 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81271166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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