Journal of Policy Analysis and Management最新文献

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IF 2.3 3区管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management

Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22656

Erdal Tekin

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The impact of Secure Communities on the labor market outcomes of immigrant women 安全社区对移民妇女劳动力市场成果的影响

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management

Pub Date : 2024-10-27 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22649

Cynthia Bansak, Sarah Pearlman, Chad Sparber

The United States deported nearly 400,000 unauthorized immigrants under the Secure Communities (SC) interior immigration enforcement program between 2008 and 2014. This paper uses variation in the intensity of deportations across immigrants’ country of origin and city of residence to assess the labor market consequences of SC on foreign‐born women. We find no effect on the total number of employed immigrant women, but both annual wages and the number of hours worked fell. Moreover, SC induced a shift toward occupations with lower average pay and education requirements, higher exposure to hazards, and less contact with others. This is consistent with a chilling effect in labor markets such that some foreign‐born women were willing to sacrifice better pay and working environments for the ability to avoid detection.

2008 年至 2014 年间，美国根据安全社区（Secure Communities，SC）内部移民执法计划驱逐了近 40 万名未经授权的移民。本文利用驱逐强度在移民原籍国和居住城市之间的变化来评估安全社区计划对外国出生女性劳动力市场的影响。我们发现，对就业移民妇女的总人数没有影响，但年薪和工作时数都有所下降。此外，SC 引发了向平均工资和教育要求较低、接触危险较多、与他人接触较少的职业的转移。这与劳动力市场的寒蝉效应是一致的，即一些外国出生的妇女愿意牺牲更好的薪酬和工作环境来换取避免被发现的能力。

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Announcements from APPAM

IF 2.3 3区管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management

Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22650

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The effect of mass migration on disease transmission: Evidence from the Venezuelan refugee crisis 大规模移民对疾病传播的影响：委内瑞拉难民危机的证据

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management

Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22641

Alicia Barriga, Richard A. Dunn

Since 2014, millions of Venezuelans have fled to neighboring countries. There is only one accessible land crossing along the Brazil–Venezuela border (Pacaraima) and the Brazilian highway system limits migrants to one route through the Amazon for almost 1000 km. Using this event as a quasi-random treatment, we find that refugee migration increased malaria incidence in Pacaraima, but this was limited to individuals of Venezuelan nationality. We find no effect on Brazilians in Pacaraima or in other municipalities along the main refugee migration route. We therefore reject the hypothesis that Venezuelan refugees increased the risk of malaria among native residents.

自 2014 年以来，数百万委内瑞拉人逃往邻国。巴西与委内瑞拉边境只有一个陆路口岸（帕卡雷马），而巴西的高速公路系统限制了移民只能走一条穿越亚马逊近 1000 公里的路线。将这一事件作为准随机处理，我们发现难民移民增加了帕卡莱马的疟疾发病率，但这仅限于委内瑞拉国籍的个人。我们没有发现难民迁徙对帕卡莱马市或主要难民迁徙路线沿线其他城市的巴西人有任何影响。因此，我们否定了委内瑞拉难民增加了本地居民疟疾发病风险的假设。

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Veteran Affairs disability compensation: Likely the U.S.’s largest disability program, but what do we know about its impacts on service-disabled veterans? 退伍军人事务伤残补偿：退伍军人事务伤残补偿：可能是美国最大的伤残项目，但我们对其对服役伤残退伍军人的影响了解多少？

IF 2.3 3区管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management

Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22646

Philip Armour, Catria Gadwah-Meaden

The last few decades have seen rapid growth in the size of the Veterans Affairs Disability Compensation (VADC) program, which provides tax-free cash benefits to veterans with disabilities connected to military service. Given this recent growth, VADC is on pace to eclipse Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) to become the largest U.S. disability program by expenditures. Although there are decades of causal research on the design and impacts of SSDI, there is no comparable body of evidence for VADC. In this Policy Insight, we discuss how causal evidence was produced for Social Security-administered disability programs and why there is a lack of this evidence for VADC. Chief among the explanations is a lack of VADC data access available to the broader researcher community, access that Social Security facilitates for the programs it administers. However, even with this access, the proliferation of benefits and services targeted to service-disabled veterans implies that existing earnings loss studies and causal estimates of the impact of VADC benefit receipt on any given outcome of interest likely are mismeasurements of true effects. We conclude with recommendations for restructuring approaches to research design to accurately estimate impacts of VADC benefits as well as the wide array of other programs supporting service-disabled veterans.

在过去几十年中，退伍军人事务伤残补偿计划（VADC）的规模迅速增长，该计划为因服兵役而致残的退伍军人提供免税现金福利。鉴于最近的增长，退伍军人事务伤残补偿计划有望超越社会保障伤残保险（SSDI），成为美国支出最大的伤残计划。尽管对 SSDI 的设计和影响已有数十年的因果研究，但对 VADC 却没有类似的证据。在本政策透视中，我们将讨论社会保障管理的残障项目是如何产生因果证据的，以及为什么 VADC 缺乏此类证据。其中最主要的原因是广大研究人员无法访问 VADC 数据，而社会保障机构为其管理的项目提供了便利。然而，即使有了这种访问权限，针对服役伤残退伍军人的福利和服务的激增也意味着，现有的收入损失研究以及关于 VADC 福利领取对任何特定相关结果的影响的因果估计很可能是对真实影响的错误测量。最后，我们建议调整研究设计方法，以准确估算 VADC 福利以及支持服役伤残退伍军人的一系列其他计划的影响。

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The dovish turnaround: Germany's social benefit reform and job findings 鸽派的转变：德国社会福利改革与就业结果

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22648

Enzo Weber

On the labor markets, recent decades were characterized by structural supply-side reforms in many countries. Following its hawkish reforms from the 2000s, Germany has recently made a dovish turnaround. Conditions in basic income support for unemployed became more generous, combined with a focus on qualification and development. Before, a temporary moratorium on sanctions had been imposed, providing a unique policy shift. We analyze the consequences for job findings, building on large administrative data and a novel control group approach. The moratorium dampened job findings by 4% and the subsequent benefit reform by almost 6%—offsetting half of the positive effect of the 2000s reform. Considering reform objectives, so far, we find no improvement in skill level, job stability, or transitions to training.

在劳动力市场方面，近几十年来，许多国家都进行了结构性的供给方改革。继 2000 年代的鹰派改革之后，德国最近开始转向鸽派。为失业者提供的基本收入支持条件变得更加宽松，同时注重资格和发展。在此之前，德国暂停了对失业者的制裁，这是一次独特的政策转变。我们利用大量行政数据和一种新颖的对照组方法，分析了对就业结果的影响。暂停制裁使就业岗位减少了 4%，而随后的福利改革则减少了近 6%--抵消了 2000 年代改革所带来的一半积极影响。考虑到改革的目标，到目前为止，我们没有发现技能水平、工作稳定性或培训过渡方面有任何改善。

引用次数: 0

To make or buy commercialization: A synthetic control approach 制造或购买商业化：合成控制方法

IF 2.3 3区管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management

Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22644

Jason Coupet

Many public service organizations engage in commercialization, or market-oriented strategies designed to generate non-public revenue for the organization. Managers and policymakers sometimes choose to “buy” these commercialization strategies by setting up separate organizations, ostensibly to avoid inefficiencies associated with coordinating market activity within an organization designed for public service. Using a synthetic control approach, this study measures the effect on efficiency of a commercialization strategy in the tech transfer domain by leveraging the spin-off of a large public tech transfer enterprise. I find that the spin-off decreased revenue and licensing activity, and I find no meaningful effect on contract costs. My findings suggest that government entities in pursuit of revenue and efficiency gains should not consider “buying” commercialization strategies a magic bullet for efficiency gains.

许多公共服务组织实行商业化或以市场为导向的战略，旨在为组织创造非公共收入。管理者和决策者有时会选择 "购买 "这些商业化战略，成立独立的组织，表面上是为了避免在一个为公共服务而设计的组织内协调市场活动所带来的低效率。本研究采用合成控制法，通过利用大型公共技术转让企业的分拆，衡量技术转让领域的商业化战略对效率的影响。我发现，分拆企业减少了收入和许可活动，但对合同成本没有产生有意义的影响。我的研究结果表明，追求收入和效率增长的政府实体不应将 "购买 "商业化战略视为提高效率的灵丹妙药。

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Spillover effects of Medicaid expansion on Medicare: Evidence from administrative data 医疗补助扩展对医疗保险的溢出效应：来自行政数据的证据

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management

Pub Date : 2024-10-06 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22647

Scott Barkowski, Dajung Jun, Yuting Zhang

The 2014 Medicaid expansion excluded Americans who were 65 years old and older, but they could still be affected via spillover effects. Using Medicare administrative data, we test for spillovers in Medicare spending and Medicaid coverage among low‐income Medicare beneficiaries. We analyze two cohorts: those under 65 in 2014, who could have been induced by the expansion to take up Medicaid before joining Medicare; and those 65 or older in 2014, whose Medicaid eligibility was never affected by the expansion. We only find spillovers for the under‐65 cohort, where Medicare spending fell and Medicaid coverage increased, with no measurable adverse effect on mortality. Combined with a null effect for the over‐65 cohort, these facts suggest Medicare beneficiaries were not crowded out of health care by the expansion. Instead, those under‐65 cohort satisfied “pent‐up” demand via Medicaid, consuming care they would have otherwise obtained later under Medicare.

2014 年的医疗补助扩展将 65 岁及以上的美国人排除在外，但他们仍可能受到溢出效应的影响。利用医疗保险管理数据，我们对低收入医疗保险受益人的医疗保险支出和医疗补助覆盖范围的溢出效应进行了检验。我们分析了两个组群：2014 年 65 岁以下的人群，他们可能会在加入医疗保险之前受医疗保险扩展的影响而加入医疗补助计划；以及 2014 年 65 岁或以上的人群，他们的医疗补助资格从未受到医疗保险扩展的影响。我们只发现了 65 岁以下人群的溢出效应，他们的医疗保险支出下降，医疗补助计划的覆盖范围扩大，但对死亡率没有明显的不利影响。再加上对 65 岁以上人群的影响为零，这些事实表明，医疗保险受益人并没有因为医保扩容而被挤出医保范围。相反，这些 65 岁以下的人群通过医疗补助计划满足了 "被压抑 "的需求，消费了他们本应在以后通过医疗保险计划获得的医疗服务。

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Correction to BOOK REVIEW: Why SNAP Works: A Political History—and Defense—of the Food Stamp Program 更正书评：《为什么 SNAP 有用？食品券计划的政治历史与辩护

IF 2.3 3区管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management

Pub Date : 2024-10-06 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22645

Peck, L.R. (2024). Why SNAP Works: A Political History—and Defense—of the Food Stamp Program by Christopher Bosso. Oakland, CA: University of California Press, 2023, 257 pp., $24.95 (US) (Hardcover). ISBN 978–0520392816. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 43(2), 644–648. https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22576

The book review misspelled the book author's name. The author is Christpher Bosso (not Busso). We apologize for this error.

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Unearthing the impact of earthquakes: A review of economic and social consequences 揭示地震的影响：经济和社会后果综述

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management

Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1002/pam.22642

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Maxim Chupilkin, Zsoka Koczan, Alexander Plekhanov

The purpose of this paper is to offer a comprehensive overview of the socioeconomic effects of earthquakes. We begin with a thorough literature review. Following this, we assess policy measures taken in response to major earthquakes, drawing on existing research to formulate insights and recommendations that policymakers can use to effectively navigate the risks in the aftermath of such disasters. In addition to reviewing the literature and analyzing policy interventions, we conduct an in-depth examination of the economic repercussions of earthquakes. Our analysis utilizes data from around 80 significant earthquakes across more than 30 countries. The findings indicate that, while the overall effect of major earthquakes on GDP per capita is generally small, the impact on fiscal accounts can be substantial, although this varies significantly between economies. External trade balances tend to weaken, with a considerable decrease in exports and an ambiguous effect on imports.

本文旨在全面概述地震的社会经济影响。我们首先进行了全面的文献综述。随后，我们评估了为应对大地震而采取的政策措施，在现有研究的基础上提出了见解和建议，政策制定者可以利用这些见解和建议来有效地应对此类灾难后的风险。除了回顾文献和分析政策干预措施，我们还对地震的经济影响进行了深入研究。我们的分析利用了 30 多个国家约 80 次重大地震的数据。研究结果表明，虽然大地震对人均国内生产总值的总体影响一般较小，但对财政账户的影响可能很大，尽管不同经济体之间的影响差异很大。对外贸易平衡往往会减弱，出口会大幅减少，而对进口的影响则不明显。

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