Toshio Ferrazares, Joseph J. Sabia, D. Mark Anderson
Gun buyback programs (GBPs), which use public funds to purchase civilians' privately-owned firearms, aim to reduce gun violence. However, next to nothing is known about their effects on firearm-related crime or deaths. Using data from the National Incident Based Reporting System, we find no evidence that GBPs reduce gun crime. Given our estimated null findings, with 95% confidence, we can rule out decreases in firearm-related crime of greater than 1.2% during the year following a buyback. Using data from the National Vital Statistics System, we also find no evidence that GBPs reduce suicides or homicides where a firearm was involved. These results call into question the efficacy of city gun buyback programs in their current form.
{"title":"Have U.S. gun buyback programs misfired?","authors":"Toshio Ferrazares, Joseph J. Sabia, D. Mark Anderson","doi":"10.1002/pam.70045","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70045","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Gun buyback programs (GBPs), which use public funds to purchase civilians' privately-owned firearms, aim to reduce gun violence. However, next to nothing is known about their effects on firearm-related crime or deaths. Using data from the National Incident Based Reporting System, we find no evidence that GBPs reduce gun crime. Given our estimated null findings, with 95% confidence, we can rule out decreases in firearm-related crime of greater than 1.2% during the year following a buyback. Using data from the National Vital Statistics System, we also find no evidence that GBPs reduce suicides or homicides where a firearm was involved. These results call into question the efficacy of city gun buyback programs in their current form.</p>","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 4","pages":"1211-1249"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144924420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the effect of granting undocumented immigrants driver's licenses on fatal crashes. Using county‐level crash data from the Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool, I leverage the quasi‐randomness of the timing of the driver's license reforms adoption across states to identify the causal effect of driver's license reforms. My findings show that granting undocumented immigrants driver's licenses increases overall fatal crashes by nearly 5%, equivalent to 0.46 more fatal crashes in a county per year. The effect is stronger in states with a higher population of undocumented immigrants. By investigating the mechanism through which the policy impact is likely to occur, I show that undocumented immigrants may be more likely to engage in risky driving behavior once they obtain driver's licenses. Several robustness checks and placebo tests support my main findings.
{"title":"The impact of granting undocumented immigrants driver's licenses on fatal crashes","authors":"Ruinan Zhao","doi":"10.1002/pam.70053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70053","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effect of granting undocumented immigrants driver's licenses on fatal crashes. Using county‐level crash data from the Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool, I leverage the quasi‐randomness of the timing of the driver's license reforms adoption across states to identify the causal effect of driver's license reforms. My findings show that granting undocumented immigrants driver's licenses increases overall fatal crashes by nearly 5%, equivalent to 0.46 more fatal crashes in a county per year. The effect is stronger in states with a higher population of undocumented immigrants. By investigating the mechanism through which the policy impact is likely to occur, I show that undocumented immigrants may be more likely to engage in risky driving behavior once they obtain driver's licenses. Several robustness checks and placebo tests support my main findings.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144927831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Agrarian Elites and Democracy in Latin America by Belén Fernández Milmanda. Cambridge University Press, 2025, 257 pp., $41.99 (paperback).","authors":"Ana Thais Dias Safe Carneiro","doi":"10.1002/pam.70048","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70048","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"45 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144927830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Deadly Rise of Anti‐Science: A Scientist's Warning by Peter J.Hotez. Johns Hopkins University Press, 2023, 161 pp., $24.95 (hardcover).","authors":"MaryBrooke U. Burval","doi":"10.1002/pam.70057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70057","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144927833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Researchers and policymakers assert competing behavioral models of polluters. One model portrays polluters as best approximated by the perfectly informed, rational actor from economics textbooks. Another model portrays polluters, particularly small and medium facilities, as imperfectly informed, cognitively bounded, pro‐social actors. If this second model is more accurate, environmental programs that offer low‐cost technical assistance may be especially effective in promoting regulatory compliance. Yet the empirical evidence for the effectiveness of such compliance assistance is scant. In a pre‐registered analysis using panel data research designs, we exploit idiosyncratic program roll‐out to estimate the effects of a compliance assistance program that was delivered to hundreds of Ohio water polluters. Although the program was initially deemed a success by federal and state environmental protection agencies, we estimate that, if the program had any effect on polluter behaviors, those effects were small. In our preferred specification, we estimate a precise zero effect of compliance assistance on environmental compliance and pollution. The lack of evidence for behavioral impacts from compliance assistance does not imply such programs cannot be effective, but it does underscore the need for more deliberate evaluation designs when state and federal agencies roll out their compliance assistance interventions.
{"title":"The effect of compliance assistance on pollution discharges and violations of environmental regulations","authors":"Paul J. Ferraro, Jay P. Shimshack","doi":"10.1002/pam.70056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70056","url":null,"abstract":"Researchers and policymakers assert competing behavioral models of polluters. One model portrays polluters as best approximated by the perfectly informed, rational actor from economics textbooks. Another model portrays polluters, particularly small and medium facilities, as imperfectly informed, cognitively bounded, pro‐social actors. If this second model is more accurate, environmental programs that offer low‐cost technical assistance may be especially effective in promoting regulatory compliance. Yet the empirical evidence for the effectiveness of such compliance assistance is scant. In a pre‐registered analysis using panel data research designs, we exploit idiosyncratic program roll‐out to estimate the effects of a compliance assistance program that was delivered to hundreds of Ohio water polluters. Although the program was initially deemed a success by federal and state environmental protection agencies, we estimate that, if the program had any effect on polluter behaviors, those effects were small. In our preferred specification, we estimate a precise zero effect of compliance assistance on environmental compliance and pollution. The lack of evidence for behavioral impacts from compliance assistance does not imply such programs cannot be effective, but it does underscore the need for more deliberate evaluation designs when state and federal agencies roll out their compliance assistance interventions.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144924453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many are concerned about the large decline in K–12 student achievement since 2019. And rightly so, given what it signals about student learning and later life outcomes. Less noted is the pre-pandemic sustained decline in student achievement growth that followed more than 30 years of increases. We examine the nature of achievement decline as measured by national and state NAEP scores. Our analysis suggests that pre-pandemic achievement declines are large, began earlier than commonly thought, and vary substantially among states. Importantly, a large portion of the pandemic learning losses have their roots well before 2020 and are likely not attributable to the pandemic per se. An analysis of evidence for commonly suggested causes of learning loss suggests that achievement declines likely result from several influences that vary across states and over time. Regaining momentum on academic outcomes will likely require many changes. The devolution of leadership for education policy to states offers an important opportunity for state leaders to embrace this challenge.
{"title":"Puzzling over declining academic achievement","authors":"Jim Wyckoff","doi":"10.1002/pam.70052","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70052","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Many are concerned about the large decline in K–12 student achievement since 2019. And rightly so, given what it signals about student learning and later life outcomes. Less noted is the pre-pandemic sustained decline in student achievement growth that followed more than 30 years of increases. We examine the nature of achievement decline as measured by national and state NAEP scores. Our analysis suggests that pre-pandemic achievement declines are large, began earlier than commonly thought, and vary substantially among states. Importantly, a large portion of the pandemic learning losses have their roots well before 2020 and are likely not attributable to the pandemic per se. An analysis of evidence for commonly suggested causes of learning loss suggests that achievement declines likely result from several influences that vary across states and over time. Regaining momentum on academic outcomes will likely require many changes. The devolution of leadership for education policy to states offers an important opportunity for state leaders to embrace this challenge.</p>","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"45 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144910688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Autocracy, Inc.: The Dictators Who Want to Run the World by AnneApplebaum. Random House, 2024, 272 pp., $29 (paperback).","authors":"Guzel Garifullina","doi":"10.1002/pam.70054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70054","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144911068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Disinformation, Misinformation, and Democracy: Legal Approaches in Comparative Context by Ronald J.Krotosynsky Jr., AdrásKoltay, and CharlotteGarden. Cambridge University Press, 2024, 430 pp., $140.00 (hardcover).","authors":"Zoe Tzanis, Samuel Woolley","doi":"10.1002/pam.70055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70055","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anamarie A. Whitaker, Margaret Burchinal, Jade M. Jenkins, Drew H. Bailey, Tyler W. Watts, Greg J. Duncan, Emma R. Hart, Ellen Peisner-Feinberg
Public preschool programs are heralded as an effective policy tool for promoting the development and lifelong well-being of children from low-income families. Recent preschool evaluations report divergent findings that are consistently weaker than those of famous demonstration programs implemented in the mid-20th century. We provide potential explanations for these weaker effects, the most compelling of which focuses on improvements in the early childhood conditions of children not enrolling in public programs. We argue that other explanations, such as subsequent low-quality schooling experiences, do not convincingly account for weakening program effectiveness. We do not contest whether governments should invest in effective care for young children. Rather, we focus on the current state of the evaluation evidence for programs at scale. We argue the field must take seriously the disappointing impacts of modern programs on child outcomes and strive to understand how to boost program effectiveness through rigorous, longitudinal research.
{"title":"Why are preschool programs becoming less effective?","authors":"Anamarie A. Whitaker, Margaret Burchinal, Jade M. Jenkins, Drew H. Bailey, Tyler W. Watts, Greg J. Duncan, Emma R. Hart, Ellen Peisner-Feinberg","doi":"10.1002/pam.70031","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70031","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Public preschool programs are heralded as an effective policy tool for promoting the development and lifelong well-being of children from low-income families. Recent preschool evaluations report divergent findings that are consistently weaker than those of famous demonstration programs implemented in the mid-20th century. We provide potential explanations for these weaker effects, the most compelling of which focuses on improvements in the early childhood conditions of children not enrolling in public programs. We argue that other explanations, such as subsequent low-quality schooling experiences, do not convincingly account for weakening program effectiveness. We do not contest whether governments should invest in effective care for young children. Rather, we focus on the current state of the evaluation evidence for programs at scale. We argue the field must take seriously the disappointing impacts of modern programs on child outcomes and strive to understand how to boost program effectiveness through rigorous, longitudinal research.</p>","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144906046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The federal debt: Costly, but not catastrophic","authors":"Louise Sheiner","doi":"10.1002/pam.70043","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70043","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 4","pages":"1484-1490"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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