Since 2014, millions of Venezuelans have fled to neighboring countries. There is only one accessible land crossing along the Brazil–Venezuela border (Pacaraima) and the Brazilian highway system limits migrants to one route through the Amazon for almost 1000 km. Using this event as a quasi-random treatment, we find that refugee migration increased malaria incidence in Pacaraima, but this was limited to individuals of Venezuelan nationality. We find no effect on Brazilians in Pacaraima or in other municipalities along the main refugee migration route. We therefore reject the hypothesis that Venezuelan refugees increased the risk of malaria among native residents.
{"title":"The effect of mass migration on disease transmission: Evidence from the Venezuelan refugee crisis","authors":"Alicia Barriga, Richard A. Dunn","doi":"10.1002/pam.22641","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22641","url":null,"abstract":"Since 2014, millions of Venezuelans have fled to neighboring countries. There is only one accessible land crossing along the Brazil–Venezuela border (Pacaraima) and the Brazilian highway system limits migrants to one route through the Amazon for almost 1000 km. Using this event as a quasi-random treatment, we find that refugee migration increased malaria incidence in Pacaraima, but this was limited to individuals of Venezuelan nationality. We find no effect on Brazilians in Pacaraima or in other municipalities along the main refugee migration route. We therefore reject the hypothesis that Venezuelan refugees increased the risk of malaria among native residents.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142488739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The last few decades have seen rapid growth in the size of the Veterans Affairs Disability Compensation (VADC) program, which provides tax-free cash benefits to veterans with disabilities connected to military service. Given this recent growth, VADC is on pace to eclipse Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) to become the largest U.S. disability program by expenditures. Although there are decades of causal research on the design and impacts of SSDI, there is no comparable body of evidence for VADC. In this Policy Insight, we discuss how causal evidence was produced for Social Security-administered disability programs and why there is a lack of this evidence for VADC. Chief among the explanations is a lack of VADC data access available to the broader researcher community, access that Social Security facilitates for the programs it administers. However, even with this access, the proliferation of benefits and services targeted to service-disabled veterans implies that existing earnings loss studies and causal estimates of the impact of VADC benefit receipt on any given outcome of interest likely are mismeasurements of true effects. We conclude with recommendations for restructuring approaches to research design to accurately estimate impacts of VADC benefits as well as the wide array of other programs supporting service-disabled veterans.
{"title":"Veteran Affairs disability compensation: Likely the U.S.’s largest disability program, but what do we know about its impacts on service-disabled veterans?","authors":"Philip Armour, Catria Gadwah-Meaden","doi":"10.1002/pam.22646","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22646","url":null,"abstract":"The last few decades have seen rapid growth in the size of the Veterans Affairs Disability Compensation (VADC) program, which provides tax-free cash benefits to veterans with disabilities connected to military service. Given this recent growth, VADC is on pace to eclipse Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) to become the largest U.S. disability program by expenditures. Although there are decades of causal research on the design and impacts of SSDI, there is no comparable body of evidence for VADC. In this Policy Insight, we discuss how causal evidence was produced for Social Security-administered disability programs and why there is a lack of this evidence for VADC. Chief among the explanations is a lack of VADC data access available to the broader researcher community, access that Social Security facilitates for the programs it administers. However, even with this access, the proliferation of benefits and services targeted to service-disabled veterans implies that existing earnings loss studies and causal estimates of the impact of VADC benefit receipt on any given outcome of interest likely are mismeasurements of true effects. We conclude with recommendations for restructuring approaches to research design to accurately estimate impacts of VADC benefits as well as the wide array of other programs supporting service-disabled veterans.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142452060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
On the labor markets, recent decades were characterized by structural supply-side reforms in many countries. Following its hawkish reforms from the 2000s, Germany has recently made a dovish turnaround. Conditions in basic income support for unemployed became more generous, combined with a focus on qualification and development. Before, a temporary moratorium on sanctions had been imposed, providing a unique policy shift. We analyze the consequences for job findings, building on large administrative data and a novel control group approach. The moratorium dampened job findings by 4% and the subsequent benefit reform by almost 6%—offsetting half of the positive effect of the 2000s reform. Considering reform objectives, so far, we find no improvement in skill level, job stability, or transitions to training.
{"title":"The dovish turnaround: Germany's social benefit reform and job findings","authors":"Enzo Weber","doi":"10.1002/pam.22648","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22648","url":null,"abstract":"On the labor markets, recent decades were characterized by structural supply-side reforms in many countries. Following its hawkish reforms from the 2000s, Germany has recently made a dovish turnaround. Conditions in basic income support for unemployed became more generous, combined with a focus on qualification and development. Before, a temporary moratorium on sanctions had been imposed, providing a unique policy shift. We analyze the consequences for job findings, building on large administrative data and a novel control group approach. The moratorium dampened job findings by 4% and the subsequent benefit reform by almost 6%—offsetting half of the positive effect of the 2000s reform. Considering reform objectives, so far, we find no improvement in skill level, job stability, or transitions to training.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142436473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many public service organizations engage in commercialization, or market-oriented strategies designed to generate non-public revenue for the organization. Managers and policymakers sometimes choose to “buy” these commercialization strategies by setting up separate organizations, ostensibly to avoid inefficiencies associated with coordinating market activity within an organization designed for public service. Using a synthetic control approach, this study measures the effect on efficiency of a commercialization strategy in the tech transfer domain by leveraging the spin-off of a large public tech transfer enterprise. I find that the spin-off decreased revenue and licensing activity, and I find no meaningful effect on contract costs. My findings suggest that government entities in pursuit of revenue and efficiency gains should not consider “buying” commercialization strategies a magic bullet for efficiency gains.
{"title":"To make or buy commercialization: A synthetic control approach","authors":"Jason Coupet","doi":"10.1002/pam.22644","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22644","url":null,"abstract":"Many public service organizations engage in commercialization, or market-oriented strategies designed to generate non-public revenue for the organization. Managers and policymakers sometimes choose to “buy” these commercialization strategies by setting up separate organizations, ostensibly to avoid inefficiencies associated with coordinating market activity within an organization designed for public service. Using a synthetic control approach, this study measures the effect on efficiency of a commercialization strategy in the tech transfer domain by leveraging the spin-off of a large public tech transfer enterprise. I find that the spin-off decreased revenue and licensing activity, and I find no meaningful effect on contract costs. My findings suggest that government entities in pursuit of revenue and efficiency gains should not consider “buying” commercialization strategies a magic bullet for efficiency gains.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142398421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The 2014 Medicaid expansion excluded Americans who were 65 years old and older, but they could still be affected via spillover effects. Using Medicare administrative data, we test for spillovers in Medicare spending and Medicaid coverage among low‐income Medicare beneficiaries. We analyze two cohorts: those under 65 in 2014, who could have been induced by the expansion to take up Medicaid before joining Medicare; and those 65 or older in 2014, whose Medicaid eligibility was never affected by the expansion. We only find spillovers for the under‐65 cohort, where Medicare spending fell and Medicaid coverage increased, with no measurable adverse effect on mortality. Combined with a null effect for the over‐65 cohort, these facts suggest Medicare beneficiaries were not crowded out of health care by the expansion. Instead, those under‐65 cohort satisfied “pent‐up” demand via Medicaid, consuming care they would have otherwise obtained later under Medicare.
{"title":"Spillover effects of Medicaid expansion on Medicare: Evidence from administrative data","authors":"Scott Barkowski, Dajung Jun, Yuting Zhang","doi":"10.1002/pam.22647","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22647","url":null,"abstract":"The 2014 Medicaid expansion excluded Americans who were 65 years old and older, but they could still be affected via spillover effects. Using Medicare administrative data, we test for spillovers in Medicare spending and Medicaid coverage among low‐income Medicare beneficiaries. We analyze two cohorts: those under 65 in 2014, who could have been induced by the expansion to take up Medicaid before joining Medicare; and those 65 or older in 2014, whose Medicaid eligibility was never affected by the expansion. We only find spillovers for the under‐65 cohort, where Medicare spending fell and Medicaid coverage increased, with no measurable adverse effect on mortality. Combined with a null effect for the over‐65 cohort, these facts suggest Medicare beneficiaries were not crowded out of health care by the expansion. Instead, those under‐65 cohort satisfied “pent‐up” demand via Medicaid, consuming care they would have otherwise obtained later under Medicare.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"64 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142384052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Correction to BOOK REVIEW: Why SNAP Works: A Political History—and Defense—of the Food Stamp Program","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/pam.22645","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22645","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142384065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cevat Giray Aksoy, Maxim Chupilkin, Zsoka Koczan, Alexander Plekhanov
The purpose of this paper is to offer a comprehensive overview of the socioeconomic effects of earthquakes. We begin with a thorough literature review. Following this, we assess policy measures taken in response to major earthquakes, drawing on existing research to formulate insights and recommendations that policymakers can use to effectively navigate the risks in the aftermath of such disasters. In addition to reviewing the literature and analyzing policy interventions, we conduct an in-depth examination of the economic repercussions of earthquakes. Our analysis utilizes data from around 80 significant earthquakes across more than 30 countries. The findings indicate that, while the overall effect of major earthquakes on GDP per capita is generally small, the impact on fiscal accounts can be substantial, although this varies significantly between economies. External trade balances tend to weaken, with a considerable decrease in exports and an ambiguous effect on imports.
{"title":"Unearthing the impact of earthquakes: A review of economic and social consequences","authors":"Cevat Giray Aksoy, Maxim Chupilkin, Zsoka Koczan, Alexander Plekhanov","doi":"10.1002/pam.22642","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22642","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to offer a comprehensive overview of the socioeconomic effects of earthquakes. We begin with a thorough literature review. Following this, we assess policy measures taken in response to major earthquakes, drawing on existing research to formulate insights and recommendations that policymakers can use to effectively navigate the risks in the aftermath of such disasters. In addition to reviewing the literature and analyzing policy interventions, we conduct an in-depth examination of the economic repercussions of earthquakes. Our analysis utilizes data from around 80 significant earthquakes across more than 30 countries. The findings indicate that, while the overall effect of major earthquakes on GDP per capita is generally small, the impact on fiscal accounts can be substantial, although this varies significantly between economies. External trade balances tend to weaken, with a considerable decrease in exports and an ambiguous effect on imports.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"48 19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142321897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We conducted a randomized control trial to study the impact of two information messages aimed at reducing the stigma associated with mental illness on the willingness to seek mental health care among adults in Nepal. The first intervention shares information about the prevalence of mental health issues and the efficacy of treatment. The second intervention shares information about the mental health struggles of a Nepali celebrity and how he benefited from treatment. We find three results. First, compared to a no-information control group, both interventions increase participants’ stated willingness to seek mental health treatment. This effect is driven by participants with high personal and anticipated stigma, less severe symptoms of depression and anxiety, and who hold strong beliefs about conformity to masculinity. Second, the impact on participants’ stated willingness to seek mental health treatment mirrors their willingness to pay for counseling. Third, participants are, on average, more likely to report willingness to seek help when the enumerator is female.
{"title":"Can destigmatizing mental health increase willingness to seek help? Experimental evidence from Nepal","authors":"Lindsey Lacey, Nirajana Mishra, Priya Mukherjee, Nikhilesh Prakash, Nishith Prakash, Diane Quinn, Shwetlena Sabarwal, Deepak Saraswat","doi":"10.1002/pam.22643","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22643","url":null,"abstract":"We conducted a randomized control trial to study the impact of two information messages aimed at reducing the stigma associated with mental illness on the willingness to seek mental health care among adults in Nepal. The first intervention shares information about the prevalence of mental health issues and the efficacy of treatment. The second intervention shares information about the mental health struggles of a Nepali celebrity and how he benefited from treatment. We find three results. First, compared to a no-information control group, both interventions increase participants’ stated willingness to seek mental health treatment. This effect is driven by participants with high personal and anticipated stigma, less severe symptoms of depression and anxiety, and who hold strong beliefs about conformity to masculinity. Second, the impact on participants’ stated willingness to seek mental health treatment mirrors their willingness to pay for counseling. Third, participants are, on average, more likely to report willingness to seek help when the enumerator is female.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142321898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Introduction to the Research Articles","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/pam.22628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22628","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"43 4","pages":"999-1003"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142233145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"43rd Year Data","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/pam.22632","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22632","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"43 4","pages":"1321"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142233198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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