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Private School Choice Programs Should and Will Continue to Expand 私立学校选择项目应该也将继续扩大
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70068
Patrick J. Wolf
<p>Douglas Harris has written a cogent essay arguing that universal voucher and ESA programs are undesirable because public charter schools are better. While I disagree with Harris on several key points, I begin by emphasizing our areas of agreement.</p><p>We agree that public charter schools have a strong record of improving academic outcomes, especially for disadvantaged students. We agree that accountability tests sometimes fail to align with the curriculum taught to students, complicating comparisons between groups across time and school sectors. We agree that the ability of private schools to teach religion gives them an advantage relative to secular public schools. We agree that “public accountability is about more than just test scores. It is about ensuring that schools instill common language, values like tolerance, and belief in democracy” (Harris <span>2025</span>). We agree that expanding private school choice programs in the form of vouchers and ESAs increases freedom, axiomatically.</p><p>We agree that Levin's four-criterion evaluation scheme is useful for assessing the desirability of expanding private school choice. We tend to disagree on the evidence that is most relevant to the application of Levin's criteria, and how to characterize and interpret that evidence.</p><p>Harris claims that statewide voucher programs in Florida, Indiana, Louisiana, and Ohio provide the best evidence regarding the likely effects of universal private school choice programs. Florida certainly is highly relevant, as it serves over half a million choice students, recently converted its voucher programs to ESAs, and is a model for many states, given its 28 years of experience publicly funding private schooling. The experiences of Indiana and Ohio are less instructive than those of Florida, since the Hoosier and Buckeye states are two of only three states with universal school voucher programs, the other being North Carolina. A total of 14 states combine universal eligibility with the more flexible ESA policy model, with Arizona the earliest adopter of that now popular approach.</p><p>The least relevant program for forecasting the future effects of universal ESAs is the Louisiana Scholarship Program (LSP). The LSP was a highly regulated school voucher program limited to low-income students. It was repealed and replaced with the Louisiana GATOR universal ESA program in 2025. The LSP taught policymakers how not to design and implement a private school choice program (Wolf <span>2019</span>). They have taken those lessons to heart, rendering the disappointing participant effects from my team's evaluation of the LSP the least informative findings for predicting the outcomes of current and future private school choice programs.</p><p>Since no private school choice program designed like the universal ESAs proliferating across the country has been rigorously evaluated, I draw the evidence for my assessment from all the voucher and ESA evaluations, via meta-analyse
道格拉斯·哈里斯(Douglas Harris)写了一篇令人信服的文章,认为普遍的代金券和ESA计划是不可取的,因为公立特许学校更好。虽然我在几个关键点上与哈里斯意见不一致,但我首先强调一下我们的共识领域。我们同意,公立特许学校在提高学业成绩方面有着良好的记录,尤其是对弱势学生而言。我们同意,问责制测试有时与教授给学生的课程不一致,使不同时间和学校部门的群体之间的比较复杂化。我们同意,私立学校教授宗教的能力使它们相对于世俗公立学校具有优势。我们一致认为,“公共问责制不仅仅关乎考试成绩。它是关于确保学校灌输共同语言、宽容等价值观和民主信仰”(哈里斯2025)。我们一致认为,以教育券和教育储蓄计划的形式扩大私立学校的选择项目可以增加自由,这是不言自明的。我们同意莱文的四标准评估方案对于评估扩大私立学校选择的可取性是有用的。对于与莱文标准的应用最相关的证据,以及如何描述和解释这些证据,我们往往存在分歧。哈里斯声称,佛罗里达州、印第安纳州、路易斯安那州和俄亥俄州的全州教育券计划为普及私立学校选择计划可能产生的影响提供了最好的证据。佛罗里达州当然是高度相关的,因为它为50多万优等学生提供服务,最近将其代金券计划转变为教育储蓄计划,鉴于其28年的公共资助私立学校的经验,它是许多州的榜样。印第安纳州和俄亥俄州的经验不如佛罗里达州那么有教育意义,因为只有三个州实行了普及教育券计划,印第安纳州和七叶树州是其中两个,另一个是北卡罗来纳州。共有14个州将普遍资格与更灵活的ESA政策模式结合起来,亚利桑那州是最早采用这种现在流行的方法的州。预测通用esa未来影响的最不相关的计划是路易斯安那奖学金计划(LSP)。LSP是一个严格监管的学校券计划,仅限于低收入家庭的学生。该计划于2025年被废除,并被路易斯安那州GATOR通用ESA计划所取代。LSP教会了政策制定者如何不设计和实施私立学校选择计划(Wolf 2019)。他们把这些教训牢记于心,使我的团队对LSP的评估中令人失望的参与者效应成为预测当前和未来私立学校选择项目结果的最不具信息性的发现。由于没有一个私立学校选择项目像全国范围内普及的全民教育辅助教育项目那样被严格评估过,我通过荟萃分析和系统回顾,从所有代金券和教育辅助教育项目的评估中提取证据,特别关注亚利桑那州、阿肯色州和佛罗里达州的示范项目,这些项目最能反映当前的政策。我不同意哈里斯关于评估私立学校选择项目的正确反事实。当哈里斯说:“今天的辩论实际上是关于我们是否应该继续扩大公立学校的选择,还是扩大宗教和其他私立学校的选择”时,他制造了一个错误的二分法。著名评论家认为我们不应该扩大任何一种类型的选择(拉维奇2013),我们应该扩大公共而不是私人形式(奥斯本2017),我们应该扩大私人而不是公共形式(金斯伯里和格林2025),或者我们应该扩大所有形式的学校选择(DeAngelis 2024)。这场政策辩论是关于是否扩大私立学校的选择。正如哈里斯所说,私立学校和家庭教育的“主要替代方案”不是公立特许学校。特许学校只招收了所有K-12学生的8%。代金券和ESAs的主要替代方案是社区公立学校(NPS),它招收了所有K-12学生的78%。当随机抽奖来奖励私立学校券时,大多数失去这些彩票的学生随后进入NPS,而不是特许学校,即使在像哥伦比亚特区这样拥有大型特许学校的城市也是如此(Wolf et al. 2007)。没有证据表明普遍的私立学校选择计划会威胁到公立特许学校。在大流行之前的几年里,特许学校入学人数的增长停滞不前,但随着私立学校选择计划的启动和扩大,特许学校也在不断扩大。私立学校的选择似乎促进了特许学校的增长,因为所有形式的学校选择同时增长。我同意哈里斯的观点,公立特许学校对许多家长来说是一个有吸引力的学校选择。 然而,特许学校并不是私立学校的完美替代品,因为一些家长希望他们的孩子在宗教环境中学习,而公立特许学校被禁止教授宗教或将宗教活动纳入上学日。历史并不支持哈里斯关于“世俗教学”和“不歧视”是美国“长期存在的学校传统”的说法。在美国及其前身美国殖民地公立学校存在的前325年里,公立学校教授基督教的新教版本。世俗教学是相对近期的一种突破,打破了美国最高法院1962年禁止在公立学校进行宗教教学和强制读圣经的长期传统。可悲的是,歧视也是美国公立学校的一个长期传统,最臭名昭著的是在南方的种族歧视,但更普遍的是在全国各地,直到今天。哈里斯认为,美国的K12教育不需要“彻底改变”。大量证据表明并非如此。自大流行以来,学生们几乎失去了整整一个年级的学习水平,弱势学生的损失更大,而且几乎没有反弹的迹象。现在的慢性缺勤率是covid前的两倍多。三分之一的学生在学校感到不安全(美国疾病控制与预防中心,2024年)。美国的学生人均教育支出仅次于卢森堡(OECD 2024)。然而,在最近的国际数学和科学测试中,美国学生的成绩在12到22之间,我们的优等生和低等生之间的差距相对较大(美国教育部2024年)。一次重大的航向调整似乎是合理的。哈里斯说:“虽然这方面的证据有限,但有理由担心代金券会降低我们的社会凝聚力”(哈里斯2025)。学校券补贴私立学校。关于公立和私立学校在宽容、政治参与、政治知识和技能以及学生和校友的社区参与方面的差异,有深入的实证文献。该研究基地的调查结果有利于私立学校。即使我们只关注因果研究,私立学校在培养宽容、积极、知情和参与的公民方面至少与公立学校一样有效。几十年来,在许多国家,私立学校推动了公共教育的发展。如果有更多的学生在公共资金的支持下上私立学校,我认为没有理由认为这种情况会改变,尤其是因为家长们报告说,培养孩子的公民价值观是他们把孩子送到私立学校的一个重要原因。不管你喜不喜欢,如果你附近的社区还没有普及代金券或esa,那么它们很快就会到来。在过去的三年里,拥有普遍资格享受私立学校选择补贴的州从0个猛增到17个。政策制定者将继续推行全民择校计划,因为这些计划受到选民的欢迎。随着这些项目的不断发展和推广,我们将获得更多的证据来证明它们的效果,关于它们的收益和成本的辩论将继续下去。
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引用次数: 0
How will universal school vouchers and Education Savings Accounts (ESAs) change American schooling? 普及教育券和教育储蓄账户(ESAs)将如何改变美国的教育?
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70067
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引用次数: 0
Standard Empirical Policy Analysis Does Not Support Universal Vouchers/ESAs 标准的实证政策分析不支持普遍券/ esa
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70071
Douglas N. Harris

At least 17 states have adopted school vouchers combined with “education savings accounts” (ESAs) that are nearly universal in student and school eligibility—just since 2020. These policies allow families to use government funds to pay for tuition at essentially any in-person private school, including religious schools, and to use the funds to pay for qualified educational expenses, such as tutors and computers. The funding, while still below that of neighborhood public schools (NPSs),1 is substantial, ranging from about $7000 to $10,000 per pupil annually.

The terms that the program's supporters use have created confusion about the program design. The term “savings account” is common and it is partially accurate in the sense that the funds are paid to providers from accounts created in students' and family names, but the first word also implies that families contribute from their own savings. Some of the state policies are also called “scholarships,” implying that they are based on academic merit. But these are neither savings accounts nor scholarships. Because these policies couple school vouchers with ESAs, it is more apt to think of them as super-vouchers. I will just call them “vouchers/ESAs” for purposes here.

The fact that vouchers/ESAs combine two types of policies complicates the analysis. As I explain, the voucher element allows schools to discriminate against certain students, entwines government with religion, involves a large fiscal cost, and has shown fairly poor, or at best inconclusive, academic results. Home and virtual schooling, funded by the ESA element, do not suffer much from the first three problems but seem to generate even worse academic outcomes. Despite their differences, this Point-Counterpoint combines the debates because vouchers/ESAs are currently being adopted as a package.

As in any policy debate, we must also consider the policy alternatives. Since the early 1990s, the status quo of American education, originally built on NPSs, has been transformed into a multifaceted system that already has many forms of school choice. Almost one third of American K–12 students no longer attended their NPSs before the recent voucher/ESA push (Harris et al. 2017; USDOE 2018). In addition to tuition-paying private schools, the modern American school system already includes almost 8000 charter schools,2 homeschooling3 supported by subsidized virtual charter schools,4 and open enrollment that allows students to attend public schools outside their attendance zones and school districts. Whether vouchers are wise relative to NPSs is still a legitimate debate, but today's debate is really about whether we should continue to expand public school choice or expand religious and other private school choice.

In assessing these policy alternatives, I adopt the well-known voucher evaluation framework by Levin (2002), which includes two criteria common to almost any empiri

从2020年开始,至少有17个州采用了与“教育储蓄账户”(esa)相结合的教育券,这在学生和学校的资格中几乎是普遍的。这些政策允许家庭使用政府资金支付任何私立学校的学费,包括宗教学校,并使用这些资金支付合格的教育费用,如家教和电脑。虽然经费仍低于社区公立学校(nps),但数额可观,每个学生每年约为7000至10000美元。程序的支持者使用的术语造成了对程序设计的混淆。“储蓄账户”这个词很常见,而且它在一定程度上是准确的,因为资金是从以学生和家庭名义创建的账户中支付给提供者的,但第一个词也意味着家庭从自己的储蓄中捐款。一些州的政策也被称为“奖学金”,这意味着它们是基于学业成绩的。但这些既不是储蓄账户,也不是奖学金。由于这些政策将教育券与教育储蓄券结合在一起,人们更倾向于认为它们是超级教育券。出于目的,我将称它们为“代金券/ esa”。券/ esa结合了两种类型的政策,这一事实使分析变得复杂。正如我所解释的那样,代金券的成分允许学校歧视某些学生,将政府与宗教纠缠在一起,涉及巨大的财政成本,并且显示出相当差的,或者充其量是不确定的学术结果。由欧空局资助的家庭教育和虚拟教育没有受到前三个问题的太多影响,但似乎产生了更糟糕的学术成果。尽管存在分歧,但由于券券/ esa目前被作为一揽子方案采用,因此本论辩结合了辩论。与任何政策辩论一样,我们也必须考虑可供选择的政策。自20世纪90年代初以来,最初建立在nps基础上的美国教育现状已经转变为一个多方面的体系,已经有了多种形式的学校选择。在最近的代金券/ESA推广之前,近三分之一的美国K-12学生不再参加他们的nps (Harris et al. 2017; USDOE 2018)。除了支付学费的私立学校外,现代美国的教育体系已经包括了近8000所特许学校,由资助的虚拟特许学校支持的家庭教育,以及允许学生在他们的出勤区和学区之外就读公立学校的公开招生。相对于nps,代金券是否明智仍然是一个合理的辩论,但今天的辩论实际上是关于我们是否应该继续扩大公立学校的选择,还是扩大宗教和其他私立学校的选择。在评估这些政策选择时,我采用了Levin(2002)著名的代金券评估框架,其中包括几乎所有实证政策分析都通用的两个标准:效率和公平。莱文的框架还包括两个与代金券相关的不太常见的标准。一个是选择的自由,或自由,它本身被认为是好的。莱文的第四个标准是社会凝聚力,这意味着学校教育可以成为一种社会粘合剂,创造出共同的语言和价值观,比如宽容、尊重个人和对民主的信仰,这些都是社会运转所必需的。下面,我将表明,在这些标准上,普遍代金券/ esa的案例是薄弱的。即使是选择自由标准,毫无疑问是最支持券/ esa的标准,也不像看起来那么有说服力。这些新的教育券/教育储蓄账户可以说是70年来美国K-12教育政策最根本的变化。具体来说,它们违背了我们三个最重要和最长期的学校传统:世俗教学、公共责任和非歧视(Harris 2024)。首先,美国在一定程度上是建立在这样的理念之上的:人们应该有信仰自己宗教的自由,政府不应该设立国教。虽然券/ESA现在通过了宪法审查(Wooding 2025),但它们在实践中仍然纠缠着教会和国家,因为政府必须决定哪些宗教学校可以参与券/ESA计划。虽然这种教会与国家的纠缠在法律上是允许的,但它仍然是对传统的重大突破。其次,每个州的宪法都将“公共”教育列为国家责任。虽然关于国家制定者使用这一术语的含义仍然存在争议,但它至少已经意味着某种程度的公共治理。在上个世纪,这意味着由选举产生的地方委员会管理国家核电厂。随着时间的推移,公共管理的范围也在扩大和集中,从20世纪80年代的州标准开始,然后是90年代的基于考试的问责制,最终以2001年的联邦《不让一个孩子掉队法》达到顶峰。 代金券/教育储蓄计划拒绝这种公共问责传统,而是依靠家长和私立学校通过市场做出决定。第三,非歧视原则意味着,除了有限的例外情况,NPSs必须接受住在学校附近的所有学生,无论种族、宗教、性取向、残疾、政党和学术能力如何。相比之下,代金券/教育储蓄券用于私立学校,这些学校可以合法地选择或歧视上述任何因素,但种族除外(Petrilli 2017)。由于这些原因,新的教育券/教育储蓄账户可以说是自1954年布朗诉教育委员会案引发学校废除种族隔离以来对美国教育传统最重大的背离。布朗案的判决之所以重要,部分原因在于它将反歧视这一首要原则扩展到了非裔美国人身上。更广泛地说,在最近的学券/教育补助计划推行之前,教育政策一直在朝着加强世俗教学、公共责任和非歧视原则的方向发展。代金券/储蓄储蓄券则相反,违背了同样的原则。教育券/教育储蓄账户也与全球教育政策存在分歧。许多国家为私立学校提供公共资金。但在这些国家,即使是政府补贴的宗教学校也要遵守政府的标准和考试。实际上,其他国家的“代金券”政策更像美国的特许学校政策。因此,这种新的私立学校选择议程是对美国和全球传统的重大背离。我们在普及代金券/ esa方面的经验如此之少,这一事实增加了那些为其辩护的人的举证责任。任何政策的倡导者通常以当前政策在特定主题上持续和明显失败的证据为出发点。当政策失败时,我们应该尝试一些新的东西——当它们严重失败时,我们可能会尝试一些全新的、甚至未经证实的东西。在接下来的文章中,我将描述整个教育系统在教育券/教育储蓄计划实施之前的几十年里所取得的成果。与其他高收入国家相比,许多教育成果,尤其是高中毕业和大学入学,处于或接近历史最高水平(Harris et al. 2025)。几十年来,家长对公立学校的满意度一直很高,而且在某些指标上有所提高。在新冠肺炎之前的最后一次盖洛普(2025)民意调查中,82%的父母对孩子就读的学校完全或有些满意部分由于这些学术和其他方面的成功,美国劳动力仍然是世界上最具生产力的劳动力之一(de Vries 2022; Harris et al. 2025)。我们的考试成绩结果更加复杂。长期以来,美国的国际地位在高收入国家中一直略高于平均水平,尽管自1990年以来,我们在PISA上的相对水平一直在提高(Harris et al. 2025)此外,到2014年左右,我们在国家教育进步评估(NAEP)上的分数在四分之一世纪里稳步上升,但自那以后,甚至在COVID之前,我们的分数有所下降(Harris et al. 2025)。NCLB实施十年后,考试成绩下降的一个可能原因是基于考试的问责制减少(Dee and Jacob 2011; Goldhaber and DeArmond 2023)。很少有人认识到的是,今天的高中生毕业时所掌握的知识比过去几十年要高级得多。参加过“严格课程”的高中生比例从1990年的30%增加到2019年的62%,翻了一倍多(USDOE 2019)。这显然是由于高中毕业要求的提高和进入好大学的竞争。这些高级课程的内容不反映在NAEP或国际评估中。很难将此解释为有必要进行重大且未经证实的变革的证据,特别是这些新的代金券/ esa,它们限制了我们最近取得成功的部分标准和问责制。即使最近的趋势似乎不需要彻底改变,从理论上讲,教育券/教育储蓄计划仍有可能在学术上显著改善现状。在决定关注哪些证据时,重要的是要注意
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引用次数: 0
The Choice of Policy Comparisons and Relevant Evidence and Approach to Selection Bias Are Keys to the Debate 政策比较的选择、相关证据和选择偏差的方法是辩论的关键
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70069
Douglas N. Harris
<p>Patrick Wolf and I use the same framework for evaluating universal vouchers/ESAs, from Levin (<span>2002</span>), but we come to different conclusions. Why is that? In my view, this is because I disagree with his choices about the counterfactual policies and the relevant evidence, and his interpretation of that evidence with respect to selection bias. All of this is at the heart of the debate.</p><p>First, his counterfactual is not the status quo. His analysis includes references to the public education system as it was all the way back in the mid-1800s. Some of his analysis might have been reasonable up through the early 1990s but the choice landscape changed long ago. More than a third of students were attending schools other than their neighborhood public schools <i>before</i> the recent cascade of vouchers, mostly because of expanding public school open enrollment, charter schools, and publicly supported virtual/homeschooling. Given these recent and significant expansions of public school choice, it is difficult to see why we would compare universal vouchers to a form of universal traditional public education that has faded away.</p><p>Such a comparison seems like a straw man and significantly changes the interpretation of evidence. Public school choice programs, as I explained in my initial essay, seem to have some of the same advantages as vouchers (e.g., positive competitive effects), while also avoiding some of their disadvantages (e.g., social cohesion and negative achievement participation effects).</p><p>Now, consider the evidence on vouchers. Wolf's summary averages the modest positive average treatment effects of small-scale, targeted programs with the negative effects of more relevant statewide programs. Two issues arise here, the first being the central role of eligibility targeting. Almost every study in Wolf's review pertains to programs targeted to low-income students. But the policy we are debating is <i>universal</i> school vouchers. This is a problem because, as I explained, there is a general research consensus that school choice works better for disadvantaged students (Chen and Harris <span>2023</span>; Cohodes and Roy <span>2024</span>). This means almost all the studies he is citing are overly optimistic about the effects we can expect from universal voucher programs.</p><p>To reinforce his argument, Wolf quotes Howard Fuller as saying, “School choice is widespread in America, unless you are poor.” Setting aside that this quote is also dated (see above on increasingly widespread public school choice), this raises the question, if the goal were to increase choice for disadvantaged students, then why not target the program to those students? A more reasonable case can be made for a targeted program than for universal programs, given the targeted programs are more effective and less costly.</p><p>The word “universal” with today's vouchers also signals the programs’ lack of geographic boundaries. Until the last decade, ess
帕特里克·沃尔夫(Patrick Wolf)和我使用莱文(Levin, 2002)提出的相同框架来评估普遍代金券/ esa,但我们得出了不同的结论。为什么呢?在我看来,这是因为我不同意他对反事实政策和相关证据的选择,以及他对选择偏见的证据的解释。所有这些都是辩论的核心。首先,他的反事实不是现状。他的分析中提到了19世纪中期的公共教育系统。他的一些分析在20世纪90年代早期可能是合理的,但选择格局很久以前就改变了。在最近一系列的代金券之前,超过三分之一的学生在附近的公立学校以外的学校上学,主要是因为公立学校开放招生,特许学校和公共支持的虚拟/在家上学。考虑到最近公立学校选择范围的显著扩大,很难理解我们为什么要将普及代金券与一种已经消失的普及传统公共教育形式进行比较。这样的比较似乎是一个稻草人,并显著改变了对证据的解释。正如我在最初的文章中所解释的那样,公立学校选择计划似乎具有与教育券相同的一些优点(例如,积极的竞争效应),同时也避免了一些缺点(例如,社会凝聚力和消极的成就参与效应)。现在,考虑一下有关代金券的证据。沃尔夫的总结将小规模的、有针对性的项目的适度积极平均治疗效果与更相关的全州项目的负面影响进行了平均。这里出现了两个问题,第一个是资格定位的核心作用。在沃尔夫的评论中,几乎每一项研究都与针对低收入学生的项目有关。但我们正在讨论的政策是普及教育券。这是一个问题,因为正如我解释的那样,有一个普遍的研究共识,即学校选择对弱势学生更有效(Chen和Harris 2023; Cohodes和Roy 2024)。这意味着,他所引用的几乎所有研究都对普遍代金券计划的效果过于乐观。为了加强他的观点,沃尔夫引用了霍华德·富勒的话说:“在美国,学校选择很普遍,除非你很穷。”撇开这句话也过时了(见上文越来越广泛的公立学校选择),这就提出了一个问题,如果目标是增加弱势学生的选择,那么为什么不针对这些学生呢?有针对性的计划比普遍计划更合理,因为有针对性的计划更有效,成本更低。今天的代金券上的“普及”一词也表明,这些项目缺乏地域界限。直到过去十年,基本上所有的美国代金券研究都是在个别城市进行的。不幸的是,小项目的效果很少扩大,部分原因是它们在我们期望它们有效的地方进行试点。这是一个如此重要的问题,以至于美国教育部的教育科学研究所(Institute of Education Sciences)已经(或至少已经)为涉及规模扩大的研究设立了一个完全独立的资助类别。一旦确定了规模和收入/城市化目标的这些重要区别,就很难证明以学业成绩为基础的代金券是合理的。我们的第三个分歧是关于高中毕业和上大学的代金券证据。他所依赖的研究存在潜在的选择偏差。与大多数公共政策不同的是,在大多数公共政策中,保证符合条件的人能够获得项目,选择从两个方向威胁着代金券研究。除了家庭选择学校外,私立学校也可以选择自己的学生。这阻碍了试图理解程序效应的研究人员,迫使他们主要依靠基于可观察到的差异的匹配。在全州范围内的研究中,我们看到的对上大学等长期结果有积极影响的,只有那些选择偏见真正令人担忧的研究。Wolf没有提到辩论中最重要的研究——他自己对路易斯安那州的研究(Erickson et al. 2021)——发现对上大学没有平均影响。这项研究是最有说服力的,因为它是全州范围的,学生是随机接受代金券的。这项批判性的研究发现,即使是针对那些本应受益最多的弱势学生,对大学入学也没有影响。作者还发现该项目对学生成绩有很大的负面影响。也许沃尔夫提出的支持普及教育券/ESA的最有力证据是,家长似乎对私立学校比公立学校更满意。父母满意度是一个重要的结果,但选择也使这个证据难以解释。 正如我所强调的,私立学校比公立学校有两个固有的优势:(1)他们可以选择学生;(2)他们可以教授宗教。在第一种情况下,那些成功被私立学校录取的人会给他们更高的评分,因为这些学校是根据他们的私人需求量身定制的,减少了与那些被拒绝的更具破坏性、不那么“可取”、服务成本更高的学生的互动。很难知道学生身体的这种塑造是否是高满意度的主要原因。同样,我们也可以期待那些想要更多宗教教育的家庭使用他们的代金券来选择宗教学校,并给他们更高的评分。根据莱文的框架,这对整体教育有利吗?在某种程度上,我们对教育和自由的私人利益元素感兴趣,似乎是这样,但这也会引发对莱文的另一个标准的质疑:社会凝聚力。正如我所强调的,关于代金券和社会凝聚力的证据相当有限。在这一点上,沃尔夫写道:“许多欧洲国家通过建立普遍的私立学校选择制度,实现了高度的社会凝聚力。”虽然他没有提供任何证据来支持这一说法,但值得注意的是,这些计划的设计与美国目前的通用代金券/ esa非常不同。特别是,这些学校被要求教授州/国家课程,学生通常被要求参加国家考试。这些规则几乎肯定有助于促进社会凝聚力,但在今天的美国代金券环境下,它们遭到了积极的拒绝。欧洲的代金券更像是特许学校,正如我在回复开头解释的那样,是代金券的主要替代方案。总的来说,正如我最初所说的那样,基于标准的政策分析,似乎仍然很难为普遍的代金券/ esa提供理由。公立学校的选择有更好的学术记录,特别是在规模和广泛的学生中。再者,尽管这项政策在自由方面有一定的优点,但它对学术成就和社会凝聚力都构成了风险。结语:在代金券作为特朗普总统的大美丽法案的一部分成为联邦法律的一部分之前,我提交了我的第一篇文章。这项政策允许各州选择加入一项税收抵免计划,该计划将允许人们向奖学金授予组织捐款,而奖学金授予组织将向符合条件的州立学生发放代金券。这是很难根据经验证据和莱文的标准来证明的政策类型的一个很好的例子。从公平的角度来看,该计划的针对性并不强——按收入计算,几乎90%的美国人都能享受到该计划。虽然这个新计划的细节尚不清楚,但没有理由期待比我目前所描述的更好的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond borders: Does firm-level exposure to state and local paid sick leave mandates lead to intra-firm spillovers? 超越国界:公司层面对州和地方带薪病假规定的敞口是否会导致公司内部溢出效应?
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70061
Daniel Schneider, Kristen Harknett

States and localities have passed labor standards to raise the floor on job quality, including mandating employer provision of paid sick leave (PSL). However, contemporary political polarization makes the enactment of national labor standards and of state standards in many states unlikely. Prior literature has examined how labor standards may “spill over” spatially to affect firms, jobs, and workers in nearby places who are not covered by labor standards. We motivate and empirically examine the potential for “intra-firm spillovers.” We argue that multi-state firms facing a patchwork of labor standards may align company labor practices with the most stringent regulatory environments that they face given the geographic distribution of their establishments. To test this possibility, we take advantage of new employer–employee linked data from The Shift Project and focus on the case of paid sick leave. We find that state and local paid sick leave mandates spillover through multi-state employers to provide workers in places without mandates effective access to paid sick leave, and these findings survive a placebo test using other fringe benefits. Companies act as conduits through which the reach of local mandates that raise the floor on job quality are expanded to a broader set of workers.

各州和地方已经通过了劳工标准,提高工作质量的底线,包括强制雇主提供带薪病假(PSL)。然而,当代的政治两极分化使得在许多州制定国家劳工标准和州标准的可能性不大。先前的文献已经研究了劳动标准如何在空间上“溢出”,以影响未被劳动标准覆盖的附近地区的公司、工作和工人。我们对“企业内部溢出效应”的可能性进行了实证研究。我们认为,面临各种劳工标准的跨国公司可能会将公司的劳工实践与他们所面临的最严格的监管环境相一致,因为他们的机构分布在不同的地理位置。为了测试这种可能性,我们利用了来自The Shift Project的新的雇主-雇员关联数据,并专注于带薪病假的案例。我们发现,州和地方的带薪病假强制令通过多州雇主溢出,为没有强制令的地方的工人提供有效的带薪病假,这些发现在使用其他附加福利的安慰剂测试中幸存下来。企业充当着管道的角色,通过这些管道,提高工作质量标准的地方法规的影响范围扩大到了更广泛的工人群体。
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引用次数: 0
Inferring the value of short-staffed public sector jobs: Federal budgets and military fighter pilots 推断人员短缺的公共部门工作的价值:联邦预算和军事战斗机飞行员
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70060
Scott Farrow, Peter B. Doeringer

This study uses a novel framework based on the “negotiated staffing equilibrium” between governmental agencies and governing bodies to estimate the net benefits of increasing employment in public sector occupations that experience chronic labor shortages. The marginal values of these labor inputs, as perceived by the parties during budget negotiations, are inferred from information on the cost and productivity of labor in short supply compared to those values at the funded equilibrium employment level. If labor is not in short supply, then the net marginal benefits are either zero or negative. This model can be parameterized by elasticities and informed by principles of derived demand. The example of U.S. Air Force fighter pilots is used to illustrate the methodology because this occupation has frequently been understaffed, and the benefits of military staffing have generally been assumed to be intractable to value. The estimates here of the annual marginal net benefit of these fighter pilots is about $1.02 million, based on pilot shortages as of 2017. Eliminating that shortage would yield $458 million in additional net benefits. The results from estimating this model can inform labor allocations, budget debates and provide input values for decision-making tools such as benefit-cost analyses.

本研究使用了一个基于政府机构和理事机构之间“协商人员配置平衡”的新框架来估计在长期劳动力短缺的公共部门职业中增加就业的净效益。这些劳动投入的边际价值,正如预算谈判期间各方所感知的那样,是根据与在资助的均衡就业水平上的价值相比,关于短缺劳动力的成本和生产率的信息推断出来的。如果劳动力不短缺,那么净边际效益要么为零,要么为负。该模型可以用弹性参数化,并根据推导需求的原则进行参数化。美国空军战斗机飞行员的例子被用来说明这种方法,因为这个职业经常人手不足,而且军事人员配备的好处通常被认为难以衡量。根据截至2017年的飞行员短缺情况,这些战斗机飞行员的年边际净效益估计约为102万美元。消除这一短缺将产生4.58亿美元的额外净收益。估算该模型的结果可以为劳动力分配、预算辩论提供信息,并为效益成本分析等决策工具提供输入值。
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引用次数: 0
44th Year Data 44年数据
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70051
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引用次数: 0
INTRODUCTION TO THE RESEARCH ARTICLES 研究文章的导言
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70037
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引用次数: 0
Measuring the effects of Obergefell v. Hodges: Revisiting same‐sex marriage legalization and mortgage demand 衡量奥贝格费尔诉霍奇斯案的影响:重新审视同性婚姻合法化和抵押贷款需求
IF 3.8 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70058
Nir Eilam, Hasan Shahid
The U.S. Supreme Court's 2015 ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges made same‐sex marriage legal in all states. We estimate the effect of this landmark ruling on the mortgage demand of same‐sex couples. Using data on the near universe of mortgage applications, we employ a difference‐in‐differences estimation strategy that compares the mortgage demand from same‐sex and different‐sex couples, before and after the ruling. We find that the ruling increased the mortgage demand from same‐sex couples relative to different‐sex couples by 12% in states where same‐sex marriage was previously unavailable. Interestingly, we also estimate a 15% increase in the mortgage demand of same‐sex couples in states that had already legalized same‐sex marriage prior to the ruling. This suggests that the federal Supreme Court ruling brought greater certainty to same‐sex couples, even in states where same‐sex marriage was already legal. Additionally, we find that the effects were significantly larger for same‐sex female couples compared to same‐sex male couples, consistent with prior literature documenting higher marriage take‐up among women in same‐sex relationships. Our results emphasize the importance of federal Supreme Court rulings over and above similar state‐level legislation in shaping outcomes of vulnerable populations.
美国最高法院2015年对奥贝格费尔诉霍奇斯案的裁决使同性婚姻在所有州合法。我们估计了这一具有里程碑意义的裁决对同性伴侣抵押贷款需求的影响。利用抵押贷款申请的数据,我们采用了一种差中差估计策略,比较了判决前后同性伴侣和异性伴侣的抵押贷款需求。我们发现,在以前同性婚姻不存在的州,这项裁决使同性伴侣相对于异性伴侣的抵押贷款需求增加了12%。有趣的是,我们还估计,在裁决之前已经将同性婚姻合法化的州,同性伴侣的抵押贷款需求增加了15%。这表明,联邦最高法院的裁决给同性伴侣带来了更大的确定性,即使在同性婚姻已经合法的州也是如此。此外,我们发现,与同性男性伴侣相比,同性女性伴侣的影响要大得多,这与先前记录同性关系中女性婚姻占用率更高的文献一致。我们的研究结果强调了联邦最高法院的裁决比类似的州一级立法在塑造弱势群体结果方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Have U.S. gun buyback programs misfired? 美国的枪支回购计划失败了吗?
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70045
Toshio Ferrazares, Joseph J. Sabia, D. Mark Anderson

Gun buyback programs (GBPs), which use public funds to purchase civilians' privately-owned firearms, aim to reduce gun violence. However, next to nothing is known about their effects on firearm-related crime or deaths. Using data from the National Incident Based Reporting System, we find no evidence that GBPs reduce gun crime. Given our estimated null findings, with 95% confidence, we can rule out decreases in firearm-related crime of greater than 1.2% during the year following a buyback. Using data from the National Vital Statistics System, we also find no evidence that GBPs reduce suicides or homicides where a firearm was involved. These results call into question the efficacy of city gun buyback programs in their current form.

枪支回购计划(GBPs)是指使用公共资金购买平民私人拥有的枪支,旨在减少枪支暴力。然而,他们对枪支相关犯罪或死亡的影响几乎一无所知。根据国家事件报告系统的数据,我们发现没有证据表明GBPs减少了枪支犯罪。考虑到我们估计的无效结果,在95%的置信度下,我们可以排除在回购后的一年内枪支相关犯罪减少超过1.2%的可能性。使用国家生命统计系统的数据,我们也没有发现证据表明GBPs减少了涉及枪支的自杀或凶杀。这些结果对目前形式的城市枪支回购计划的有效性提出了质疑。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management
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