{"title":"","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/pam.70036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70036","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 4","pages":"1524-1527"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145122633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Why I am less worried about the debt than Kent Smetters is","authors":"Louise Sheiner","doi":"10.1002/pam.70042","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70042","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 4","pages":"1498-1501"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144920981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sarah Font, Christian M. Connell, Ezra G. Goldstein, Dylan Jones
Current U.S. law mandates notification of substance-affected infants to state child welfare systems (CWS) for the purpose of assessment and service connections. Yet, CWS appears to identify a small share of substance-affected infants at birth, potentially reflecting inconsistent diagnosis of prenatal substance exposure (PSE) and emerging efforts to limit toxicology testing. This study uses linked maternal and child administrative records (2015 to 2021) for Pennsylvania Medicaid-covered births with CWS cases by age 3 (N = 31,913) to investigate PSE prevalence. Using indicators from CWS records and both child and maternal Medicaid claims, we estimate that 45% of children involved with CWS by age 3 experienced PSE, as well as 59% of children entering foster care. Nearly half of these children were not involved with CWS at birth and a majority did not receive a medical diagnosis of PSE. Yet, extrapolated estimates suggest that 70% of Medicaid-covered children with a PSE indicator will experience a CWS case by age 3. Absent high uptake of robust supportive interventions from other systems or agencies, avoiding notification of PSE at birth may not reduce long-term involvement with CWS among children with PSE.
{"title":"The intersection of prenatal substance exposure and child protection: Evidence from Pennsylvania","authors":"Sarah Font, Christian M. Connell, Ezra G. Goldstein, Dylan Jones","doi":"10.1002/pam.70049","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70049","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Current U.S. law mandates notification of substance-affected infants to state child welfare systems (CWS) for the purpose of assessment and service connections. Yet, CWS appears to identify a small share of substance-affected infants at birth, potentially reflecting inconsistent diagnosis of prenatal substance exposure (PSE) and emerging efforts to limit toxicology testing. This study uses linked maternal and child administrative records (2015 to 2021) for Pennsylvania Medicaid-covered births with CWS cases by age 3 (<i>N</i> = 31,913) to investigate PSE prevalence. Using indicators from CWS records and both child and maternal Medicaid claims, we estimate that 45% of children involved with CWS by age 3 experienced PSE, as well as 59% of children entering foster care. Nearly half of these children were not involved with CWS at birth and a majority did not receive a medical diagnosis of PSE. Yet, extrapolated estimates suggest that 70% of Medicaid-covered children with a PSE indicator will experience a CWS case by age 3. Absent high uptake of robust supportive interventions from other systems or agencies, avoiding notification of PSE at birth may not reduce long-term involvement with CWS among children with PSE.</p>","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/pam.70046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70046","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145122634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alice J. Chen, Michael R. Richards, Rachel Shriver
The literature remains mixed on the extent to which medical malpractice reforms affect physician overuse of procedures (i.e., “defensive medicine”). We bring new evidence to this discourse by examining a recent reform in North Carolina that introduced caps on noneconomic damages. We focus on a setting where malpractice risk is high and service intensity is strongly subject to physicians’ discretion: obstetrics care. Comparing discharge data from North Carolina to Florida, we show that caps on noneconomic damages causally reduce the likelihood of a cesarean delivery by, on average, 5%, with the effect size nearing 7% five years post-policy implementation. Physicians also substitute away from other intensive procedures such as vacuum and forceps deliveries but maintain control over the timing of births by increasing medical inductions. Our findings suggest that the reduction in cesarean deliveries due to North Carolina's damage caps can reduce annual spending by approximately $4.6 million.
{"title":"Regulating malpractice risk and medical decision-making: Evidence from births","authors":"Alice J. Chen, Michael R. Richards, Rachel Shriver","doi":"10.1002/pam.70044","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70044","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The literature remains mixed on the extent to which medical malpractice reforms affect physician overuse of procedures (i.e., “defensive medicine”). We bring new evidence to this discourse by examining a recent reform in North Carolina that introduced caps on noneconomic damages. We focus on a setting where malpractice risk is high and service intensity is strongly subject to physicians’ discretion: obstetrics care. Comparing discharge data from North Carolina to Florida, we show that caps on noneconomic damages causally reduce the likelihood of a cesarean delivery by, on average, 5%, with the effect size nearing 7% five years post-policy implementation. Physicians also substitute away from other intensive procedures such as vacuum and forceps deliveries but maintain control over the timing of births by increasing medical inductions. Our findings suggest that the reduction in cesarean deliveries due to North Carolina's damage caps can reduce annual spending by approximately $4.6 million.</p>","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 4","pages":"1194-1210"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Notes from the Editor","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/pam.70050","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70050","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
<p>Federal debt can grow over time but not faster than GDP in the long run. Revenue must cover spending plus interest owed on the debt. Calculating the tax increase required to stabilize the debt-GDP ratio after 30 years requires estimating primary deficits (not including interest payments), borrowing rates <i>r</i> and growth rate <i>g</i> for many years after the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO, <span>2025a</span>) 30-year projection. CBO never reported a stabilizing rate. I am sure that Edelberg et al. (<span>2025</span>) reasonably extrapolated CBO data to estimate their 3% GDP value. But modest changes in assumptions create large differences: A 100% debt-GDP ratio and a 300% debt-GDP ratio could both be reasonably estimated to require the same future 3% of GDP, or even 6% or 9%.1 Using a microsimulation (not OLG) model, where the first decade was purposely aligned to CBO's (including CBO's no growth of discretionary spending2), Gokhale and Smetters (<span>2024</span>) estimated a permanent 6.6% GDP shortfall in 2024 when the debt-GDP ratio was 98%.3 The Government Accountability Office (GAO, <span>2024</span>) projected a debt-to-GDP ratio of 229% by 2054. CBO (<span>2025b</span>) projected ratios “exceeding” 250% by 2055 under assumptions that are reasonable and even more consistent with the reduced-form literature.</p><p>Uncertainty is common in long-term projections, and debates over reduced-form parameter values can be endless. Moreover, a standard insight from the field of finance is that more probability weight should be placed on worse outcomes.4 Otherwise, eliminating the tax system altogether would be optimal.5</p><p>But let me pinpoint what I think is the specific disagreement between Louise and me. The risk-free rate itself is <i>under-identified</i> in reduced-form models like CBOLT.6 The modeler picks a time path of interest rates—maybe based on yet another reduced-form estimation7—instead of computing the rate required for bond market demand to equal government supply at each point in time. My sense is that Louise seems fine with that; I am not. We agree with using simple models to study stimulus during short-term disruptions like COVID-19.8 But I disagree that reduced-form models are sensible for longer-term analysis where forward-looking trillion-dollar capital markets require that asset demand and supply add up (equilibrium). If simple statistical relationships, estimated at historical lower levels of debt, applied to an increasing debt path, debt crises would not exist. Even CBO has a limited appetite for this simplicity, capping their reported debt-GDP projections at 250%, which is easily achievable in 30 years with reasonable assumptions.</p><p>The OLG model with aggregate uncertainty requires that prices, including interest rates, follow supply and demand. In words, things must add up. The OLG model can also incorporate future demographic changes from a microsimulation model. This responsiveness of the OLG model to de
{"title":"Counterpoint","authors":"Kent Smetters","doi":"10.1002/pam.70039","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70039","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Federal debt can grow over time but not faster than GDP in the long run. Revenue must cover spending plus interest owed on the debt. Calculating the tax increase required to stabilize the debt-GDP ratio after 30 years requires estimating primary deficits (not including interest payments), borrowing rates <i>r</i> and growth rate <i>g</i> for many years after the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO, <span>2025a</span>) 30-year projection. CBO never reported a stabilizing rate. I am sure that Edelberg et al. (<span>2025</span>) reasonably extrapolated CBO data to estimate their 3% GDP value. But modest changes in assumptions create large differences: A 100% debt-GDP ratio and a 300% debt-GDP ratio could both be reasonably estimated to require the same future 3% of GDP, or even 6% or 9%.1 Using a microsimulation (not OLG) model, where the first decade was purposely aligned to CBO's (including CBO's no growth of discretionary spending2), Gokhale and Smetters (<span>2024</span>) estimated a permanent 6.6% GDP shortfall in 2024 when the debt-GDP ratio was 98%.3 The Government Accountability Office (GAO, <span>2024</span>) projected a debt-to-GDP ratio of 229% by 2054. CBO (<span>2025b</span>) projected ratios “exceeding” 250% by 2055 under assumptions that are reasonable and even more consistent with the reduced-form literature.</p><p>Uncertainty is common in long-term projections, and debates over reduced-form parameter values can be endless. Moreover, a standard insight from the field of finance is that more probability weight should be placed on worse outcomes.4 Otherwise, eliminating the tax system altogether would be optimal.5</p><p>But let me pinpoint what I think is the specific disagreement between Louise and me. The risk-free rate itself is <i>under-identified</i> in reduced-form models like CBOLT.6 The modeler picks a time path of interest rates—maybe based on yet another reduced-form estimation7—instead of computing the rate required for bond market demand to equal government supply at each point in time. My sense is that Louise seems fine with that; I am not. We agree with using simple models to study stimulus during short-term disruptions like COVID-19.8 But I disagree that reduced-form models are sensible for longer-term analysis where forward-looking trillion-dollar capital markets require that asset demand and supply add up (equilibrium). If simple statistical relationships, estimated at historical lower levels of debt, applied to an increasing debt path, debt crises would not exist. Even CBO has a limited appetite for this simplicity, capping their reported debt-GDP projections at 250%, which is easily achievable in 30 years with reasonable assumptions.</p><p>The OLG model with aggregate uncertainty requires that prices, including interest rates, follow supply and demand. In words, things must add up. The OLG model can also incorporate future demographic changes from a microsimulation model. This responsiveness of the OLG model to de","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 4","pages":"1502-1504"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/pam.70039","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144920982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Benjamin Hansen, Kendall Houghton, Keaton Miller, Caroline Weber
We study how prices respond when a 25% gross receipts tax remitted by cannabis manufacturers was eliminated in Washington state and the retail excise tax was simultaneously increased from 25% to 37%. Standard theory suggests that this change should have increased welfare for manufacturers, retailers, and consumers; instead, our analysis shows that the reform unexpectedly shifted benefits toward manufacturers at the expense of retailers and consumers, who faced higher tax‐inclusive prices post‐reform. We hypothesize that this outcome was driven by behavioral factors such as anchoring and loss aversion. Our findings add to a growing body of evidence that tax reforms can affect market outcomes in ways not predicted by standard economic models, offering a cautionary lesson for policymakers considering similar reforms.
{"title":"Shifting tax incidence: Evidence from the Washington State cannabis market","authors":"Benjamin Hansen, Kendall Houghton, Keaton Miller, Caroline Weber","doi":"10.1002/pam.70041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70041","url":null,"abstract":"We study how prices respond when a 25% gross receipts tax remitted by cannabis manufacturers was eliminated in Washington state and the retail excise tax was simultaneously increased from 25% to 37%. Standard theory suggests that this change should have increased welfare for manufacturers, retailers, and consumers; instead, our analysis shows that the reform unexpectedly shifted benefits toward manufacturers at the expense of retailers and consumers, who faced higher tax‐inclusive prices post‐reform. We hypothesize that this outcome was driven by behavioral factors such as anchoring and loss aversion. Our findings add to a growing body of evidence that tax reforms can affect market outcomes in ways not predicted by standard economic models, offering a cautionary lesson for policymakers considering similar reforms.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"190 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sukriti Beniwal, Lauren Hoehn-Velasco, Diana R. Jolles
This study considers whether the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansions resulted in changes in the use of non-physician providers. Medicaid expansions may have impacted both payments to providers as well as insurance availability for patients. Using U.S. birth certificate records, we analyze whether the ACA Medicaid expansions influenced the trade-off between physicians and certified nurse-midwives (CNMs/CMs) for obstetric care. Our findings indicate that the ACA Medicaid expansions led to an increase in the utilization of CNMs/CMs and a decrease in physician-reported deliveries. This shift from physicians to CNMs/CMs is particularly noticeable in states with Medicaid reimbursement parity for CNMs/CMs. These results suggest that health insurance expansions may increase the use of non-physician providers, but only in cases where non-physician providers are reimbursed similarly to physicians.
{"title":"Public health insurance expansions and non-physician providers: Evidence from Certified Nurse Midwives","authors":"Sukriti Beniwal, Lauren Hoehn-Velasco, Diana R. Jolles","doi":"10.1002/pam.70032","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70032","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study considers whether the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansions resulted in changes in the use of non-physician providers. Medicaid expansions may have impacted both payments to providers as well as insurance availability for patients. Using U.S. birth certificate records, we analyze whether the ACA Medicaid expansions influenced the trade-off between physicians and certified nurse-midwives (CNMs/CMs) for obstetric care. Our findings indicate that the ACA Medicaid expansions led to an increase in the utilization of CNMs/CMs and a decrease in physician-reported deliveries. This shift from physicians to CNMs/CMs is particularly noticeable in states with Medicaid reimbursement parity for CNMs/CMs. These results suggest that health insurance expansions may increase the use of non-physician providers, but only in cases where non-physician providers are reimbursed similarly to physicians.</p>","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"45 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144778393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper uses the random assignment of poor families to treatment and control conditions in the Comprehensive Child Development Program (CCDP) to estimate the effects of center-based child care enrollment on child well-being. Implemented in the early-1990s, the CCDP aimed to improve child development and family functioning by offering those in the treatment group 5 years of high-quality child care along with case management. As a result, treated children were substantially more likely to be enrolled in center-based programs throughout the preschool-age years, and I use this variation to estimate the impact of center care on children's language and social skills as well as health. I uncover mixed results: More time spent in center-based settings improves language skills but reduces social skills in the short run, and both effects fade out for most children within 1 to 2 years. I also find that early center care use is strongly predictive of later Head Start enrollment, indicating that a more deliberate “family retention strategy” may be effective at extending children's exposure to high-quality early education.
{"title":"Effects of center-based child care on disadvantaged children: Evidence from a randomized research design","authors":"Chris M. Herbst","doi":"10.1002/pam.70033","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70033","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper uses the random assignment of poor families to treatment and control conditions in the Comprehensive Child Development Program (CCDP) to estimate the effects of center-based child care enrollment on child well-being. Implemented in the early-1990s, the CCDP aimed to improve child development and family functioning by offering those in the treatment group 5 years of high-quality child care along with case management. As a result, treated children were substantially more likely to be enrolled in center-based programs throughout the preschool-age years, and I use this variation to estimate the impact of center care on children's language and social skills as well as health. I uncover mixed results: More time spent in center-based settings improves language skills but reduces social skills in the short run, and both effects fade out for most children within 1 to 2 years. I also find that early center care use is strongly predictive of later Head Start enrollment, indicating that a more deliberate “family retention strategy” may be effective at extending children's exposure to high-quality early education.</p>","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"45 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144778509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}