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IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70036
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引用次数: 0
Why I am less worried about the debt than Kent Smetters is 为什么我不像肯特·斯迈特斯那样担心债务
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70042
Louise Sheiner
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引用次数: 0
The intersection of prenatal substance exposure and child protection: Evidence from Pennsylvania 产前物质暴露与儿童保护的交叉:来自宾夕法尼亚州的证据
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70049
Sarah Font, Christian M. Connell, Ezra G. Goldstein, Dylan Jones

Current U.S. law mandates notification of substance-affected infants to state child welfare systems (CWS) for the purpose of assessment and service connections. Yet, CWS appears to identify a small share of substance-affected infants at birth, potentially reflecting inconsistent diagnosis of prenatal substance exposure (PSE) and emerging efforts to limit toxicology testing. This study uses linked maternal and child administrative records (2015 to 2021) for Pennsylvania Medicaid-covered births with CWS cases by age 3 (N = 31,913) to investigate PSE prevalence. Using indicators from CWS records and both child and maternal Medicaid claims, we estimate that 45% of children involved with CWS by age 3 experienced PSE, as well as 59% of children entering foster care. Nearly half of these children were not involved with CWS at birth and a majority did not receive a medical diagnosis of PSE. Yet, extrapolated estimates suggest that 70% of Medicaid-covered children with a PSE indicator will experience a CWS case by age 3. Absent high uptake of robust supportive interventions from other systems or agencies, avoiding notification of PSE at birth may not reduce long-term involvement with CWS among children with PSE.

现行的美国法律规定,为了评估和服务联系的目的,必须向州儿童福利系统(CWS)通报受物质影响的婴儿。然而,CWS似乎在出生时识别出一小部分受物质影响的婴儿,这可能反映出产前物质暴露(PSE)的诊断不一致,以及限制毒理学测试的新努力。本研究使用宾夕法尼亚州医疗补助覆盖的3岁CWS新生儿(N = 31913)的相关母婴行政记录(2015年至2021年)来调查PSE的患病率。使用来自CWS记录和儿童和母亲医疗补助索赔的指标,我们估计45%的3岁前患有CWS的儿童经历过PSE, 59%的儿童进入寄养。这些儿童中有近一半在出生时没有CWS,大多数没有接受PSE的医学诊断。然而,外推的估计表明,70%的有PSE指标的医疗补助覆盖的儿童将在3岁时经历CWS病例。如果没有从其他系统或机构获得强有力的支持性干预措施,避免在出生时通知PSE可能不会减少PSE患儿长期参与CWS。
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引用次数: 0
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70046
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引用次数: 0
Regulating malpractice risk and medical decision-making: Evidence from births 监管医疗事故风险和医疗决策:来自出生的证据
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70044
Alice J. Chen, Michael R. Richards, Rachel Shriver

The literature remains mixed on the extent to which medical malpractice reforms affect physician overuse of procedures (i.e., “defensive medicine”). We bring new evidence to this discourse by examining a recent reform in North Carolina that introduced caps on noneconomic damages. We focus on a setting where malpractice risk is high and service intensity is strongly subject to physicians’ discretion: obstetrics care. Comparing discharge data from North Carolina to Florida, we show that caps on noneconomic damages causally reduce the likelihood of a cesarean delivery by, on average, 5%, with the effect size nearing 7% five years post-policy implementation. Physicians also substitute away from other intensive procedures such as vacuum and forceps deliveries but maintain control over the timing of births by increasing medical inductions. Our findings suggest that the reduction in cesarean deliveries due to North Carolina's damage caps can reduce annual spending by approximately $4.6 million.

在医疗事故改革影响医生过度使用程序(即“防御性医学”)的程度上,文献仍然混杂。我们通过研究北卡罗来纳州最近引入非经济损害上限的改革,为这一论述提供了新的证据。我们专注于医疗事故风险高,服务强度强烈受到医生自由裁量权的设置:产科护理。通过比较北卡罗来纳州和佛罗里达州的出院数据,我们发现,限制非经济损失导致剖宫产的可能性平均降低了5%,政策实施五年后的效应量接近7%。医生也可以替代其他密集的程序,如真空和产钳分娩,但通过增加医学引产来控制分娩时间。我们的研究结果表明,由于北卡罗来纳州的损害上限,剖腹产分娩的减少可以减少大约460万美元的年度支出。
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引用次数: 0
Notes from the Editor 编辑注释
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70050
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引用次数: 0
Counterpoint 对位法
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70039
Kent Smetters
<p>Federal debt can grow over time but not faster than GDP in the long run. Revenue must cover spending plus interest owed on the debt. Calculating the tax increase required to stabilize the debt-GDP ratio after 30 years requires estimating primary deficits (not including interest payments), borrowing rates <i>r</i> and growth rate <i>g</i> for many years after the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO, <span>2025a</span>) 30-year projection. CBO never reported a stabilizing rate. I am sure that Edelberg et al. (<span>2025</span>) reasonably extrapolated CBO data to estimate their 3% GDP value. But modest changes in assumptions create large differences: A 100% debt-GDP ratio and a 300% debt-GDP ratio could both be reasonably estimated to require the same future 3% of GDP, or even 6% or 9%.1 Using a microsimulation (not OLG) model, where the first decade was purposely aligned to CBO's (including CBO's no growth of discretionary spending2), Gokhale and Smetters (<span>2024</span>) estimated a permanent 6.6% GDP shortfall in 2024 when the debt-GDP ratio was 98%.3 The Government Accountability Office (GAO, <span>2024</span>) projected a debt-to-GDP ratio of 229% by 2054. CBO (<span>2025b</span>) projected ratios “exceeding” 250% by 2055 under assumptions that are reasonable and even more consistent with the reduced-form literature.</p><p>Uncertainty is common in long-term projections, and debates over reduced-form parameter values can be endless. Moreover, a standard insight from the field of finance is that more probability weight should be placed on worse outcomes.4 Otherwise, eliminating the tax system altogether would be optimal.5</p><p>But let me pinpoint what I think is the specific disagreement between Louise and me. The risk-free rate itself is <i>under-identified</i> in reduced-form models like CBOLT.6 The modeler picks a time path of interest rates—maybe based on yet another reduced-form estimation7—instead of computing the rate required for bond market demand to equal government supply at each point in time. My sense is that Louise seems fine with that; I am not. We agree with using simple models to study stimulus during short-term disruptions like COVID-19.8 But I disagree that reduced-form models are sensible for longer-term analysis where forward-looking trillion-dollar capital markets require that asset demand and supply add up (equilibrium). If simple statistical relationships, estimated at historical lower levels of debt, applied to an increasing debt path, debt crises would not exist. Even CBO has a limited appetite for this simplicity, capping their reported debt-GDP projections at 250%, which is easily achievable in 30 years with reasonable assumptions.</p><p>The OLG model with aggregate uncertainty requires that prices, including interest rates, follow supply and demand. In words, things must add up. The OLG model can also incorporate future demographic changes from a microsimulation model. This responsiveness of the OLG model to de
由于人口老龄化,长期债券利率应该很低即便如此,尽管经济增长前景恶化,10年期和30年期美国国债的实际(经通胀调整后的)收益率仍超过了历史平均水平名义收益率接近英国,而英国的通胀预期和预期实际增长率仅略低于美国。尽管美国和英国的债务与gdp之比相似,但英国的债务持续时间是美国的两倍。如果美国的期限相匹配,美国的长期利率将更高,可能超过英国,尽管前景相似。当然,现在下结论还为时过早,而且,更直接的是,几个月来,市场定价认为最近的OBBB法案通过的可能性很高(超过80%)。诚然,美国的债务能力高于英国,这在很大程度上是由于美国的税率较低。尽管如此,最近英国的经历,以及最近美国解放日的经历(如果不是基本上停止的话),还是提醒我们要谨慎。我们远不是不可战胜的。除非进行严肃的政策改革,否则只有时间才能证明谁是正确的。这是一个我真心希望输掉的争论。大概二十多年后,我希望能接到露易丝的电话,嘲笑我,说我什么都不用担心,还说我现在欠她在杜邦环岛某个时髦的地方吃午饭。如果我猜对了,我会给她地理坐标;参观时记得带上帐篷和钓鱼竿。
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引用次数: 0
Shifting tax incidence: Evidence from the Washington State cannabis market 转移税收发生率:来自华盛顿州大麻市场的证据
IF 3.8 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-17 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70041
Benjamin Hansen, Kendall Houghton, Keaton Miller, Caroline Weber
We study how prices respond when a 25% gross receipts tax remitted by cannabis manufacturers was eliminated in Washington state and the retail excise tax was simultaneously increased from 25% to 37%. Standard theory suggests that this change should have increased welfare for manufacturers, retailers, and consumers; instead, our analysis shows that the reform unexpectedly shifted benefits toward manufacturers at the expense of retailers and consumers, who faced higher tax‐inclusive prices post‐reform. We hypothesize that this outcome was driven by behavioral factors such as anchoring and loss aversion. Our findings add to a growing body of evidence that tax reforms can affect market outcomes in ways not predicted by standard economic models, offering a cautionary lesson for policymakers considering similar reforms.
我们研究了当华盛顿州取消了大麻制造商缴纳的25%的总收入税,同时将零售消费税从25%提高到37%时,价格是如何反应的。标准理论认为,这种变化应该增加了制造商、零售商和消费者的福利;相反,我们的分析表明,改革意外地将利益转移给了制造商,而牺牲了零售商和消费者的利益,他们在改革后面临更高的含税价格。我们假设这一结果是由锚定和损失厌恶等行为因素驱动的。越来越多的证据表明,税收改革会以标准经济模型无法预测的方式影响市场结果,我们的研究结果为考虑类似改革的政策制定者提供了警世教训。
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引用次数: 0
Public health insurance expansions and non-physician providers: Evidence from Certified Nurse Midwives 公共健康保险扩展和非医师提供者:来自注册护士助产士的证据
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-04 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70032
Sukriti Beniwal, Lauren Hoehn-Velasco, Diana R. Jolles

This study considers whether the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansions resulted in changes in the use of non-physician providers. Medicaid expansions may have impacted both payments to providers as well as insurance availability for patients. Using U.S. birth certificate records, we analyze whether the ACA Medicaid expansions influenced the trade-off between physicians and certified nurse-midwives (CNMs/CMs) for obstetric care. Our findings indicate that the ACA Medicaid expansions led to an increase in the utilization of CNMs/CMs and a decrease in physician-reported deliveries. This shift from physicians to CNMs/CMs is particularly noticeable in states with Medicaid reimbursement parity for CNMs/CMs. These results suggest that health insurance expansions may increase the use of non-physician providers, but only in cases where non-physician providers are reimbursed similarly to physicians.

本研究考虑了平价医疗法案(ACA)医疗补助扩张是否导致了非医生提供者使用的变化。医疗补助计划的扩大可能会影响到医疗服务提供者的支付以及患者的保险可用性。利用美国出生证明记录,我们分析了ACA医疗补助计划的扩大是否影响了产科护理中医生和注册护士助产士(CNMs/CMs)之间的权衡。我们的研究结果表明,ACA医疗补助计划的扩大导致CNMs/CMs使用率的增加和医生报告的分娩数量的减少。这种从医生到cnm /CMs的转变在医疗补助对cnm /CMs报销均等的州尤为明显。这些结果表明,医疗保险的扩大可能会增加非医生提供者的使用,但仅在非医生提供者与医生报销相似的情况下。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of center-based child care on disadvantaged children: Evidence from a randomized research design 基于中心的儿童保育对弱势儿童的影响:来自随机研究设计的证据
IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-04 DOI: 10.1002/pam.70033
Chris M. Herbst

This paper uses the random assignment of poor families to treatment and control conditions in the Comprehensive Child Development Program (CCDP) to estimate the effects of center-based child care enrollment on child well-being. Implemented in the early-1990s, the CCDP aimed to improve child development and family functioning by offering those in the treatment group 5 years of high-quality child care along with case management. As a result, treated children were substantially more likely to be enrolled in center-based programs throughout the preschool-age years, and I use this variation to estimate the impact of center care on children's language and social skills as well as health. I uncover mixed results: More time spent in center-based settings improves language skills but reduces social skills in the short run, and both effects fade out for most children within 1 to 2 years. I also find that early center care use is strongly predictive of later Head Start enrollment, indicating that a more deliberate “family retention strategy” may be effective at extending children's exposure to high-quality early education.

本文采用随机分配贫困家庭到综合儿童发展计划(CCDP)的治疗和控制条件,以估计以中心为基础的儿童保育登记对儿童福祉的影响。CCDP于20世纪90年代初实施,旨在通过为治疗组提供5年高质量的儿童保育和病例管理来改善儿童发展和家庭功能。结果,接受治疗的儿童在整个学前阶段更有可能参加以中心为基础的项目,我使用这种变化来估计中心护理对儿童语言和社交技能以及健康的影响。我发现了好坏参半的结果:花更多的时间在以中心为基础的环境中,可以提高语言技能,但在短期内会降低社交技能,对大多数孩子来说,这两种效果都会在一到两年内消失。我还发现,早期中心护理的使用对后来的学前教育入学率有很强的预测作用,这表明一个更深思熟虑的“家庭保留策略”可能有效地延长儿童接受高质量早期教育的时间。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Policy Analysis and Management
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