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Securing passive liquidity: The impact of Europe’s first asymmetric speed bump on market liquidity 确保被动流动性:欧洲首次非对称减速带对市场流动性的影响
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102145
Caroline Le Moign
This study evaluates the impact of Europe’s first asymmetric speed bump, an order delay introduced by Eurex in 2019 for French equity options, as an innovative response to high-frequency trading externalities. Using a matched transaction-level database and a difference-in-difference strategy, we analyze liquidity changes on Eurex and its competitor Euronext. Results show significant improvements in Eurex liquidity, with decreased spreads and increased market depth. Notably, positive spillover effects were observed on Euronext for cross-listed options, with decreased spreads and an increase in aggressive HFT presence. These findings support the effectiveness of asymmetric speed bumps in mitigating latency arbitrage and enhancing market liquidity across competing platforms.
本研究评估了欧洲首个不对称减速带的影响,即欧洲期货交易所(Eurex)于2019年针对法国股票期权推出的订单延迟,作为对高频交易外部性的创新回应。使用匹配的交易级数据库和差中差策略,我们分析了欧洲期货交易所及其竞争对手泛欧交易所的流动性变化。结果显示,欧洲期货交易所的流动性显著改善,价差下降,市场深度增加。值得注意的是,泛欧交易所的交叉上市期权出现了积极的溢出效应,价差下降,激进的高频交易出现增加。这些发现支持了非对称减速带在减轻延迟套利和增强竞争平台之间的市场流动性方面的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
News and intraday retail investor order flow in foreign exchange markets 外汇市场的新闻和日内散户投资者订单流
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102146
Theofilia Kaourma , Andreas Milidonis , George Nishiotis , Marios Panayides
This paper examines the trading behavior of individual investors using a proprietary intraday dataset of a large pool of retail investor aggregate (minute by minute) long and short positions in EUR/USD. Standard event study analysis shows no significant adjustment in trading ahead of scheduled macro news announcements and trading contrary to the announcement surprise after the event. A panel regression analysis shows that such contrarian trading behavior is mainly driven by lagged returns rather than fundamental macro news. Further, intraday time series analysis shows that the lagged overall news sentiment also significantly affects retail investor trading. Finally, to verify the uninformed nature of retail trading, we show that simple cross-over trading strategies that exploit retail investors’ order flow could be profitable. Overall, our results suggest that retail investors in currency markets are influenced by news sentiment and past returns, but do not appear able to extract fundamental information from public news. Our findings support the differential abilities of market participants to interpret public information as reflected through the intraday trading activity of retail currency traders.
本文使用大量散户投资者(按分钟计算)欧元/美元多头和空头头寸的专有日内数据集来检验个人投资者的交易行为。标准事件研究分析显示,在宏观新闻公告发布之前,交易没有明显调整,而在事件发布后,交易与公告相反。面板回归分析显示,这种反向交易行为主要是由滞后收益驱动的,而非基本面宏观消息。此外,盘中时间序列分析显示,滞后的整体新闻情绪也显著影响散户投资者的交易。最后,为了验证散户交易的不知情性质,我们表明,利用散户投资者的订单流的简单交叉交易策略可以盈利。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,外汇市场的散户投资者受到新闻情绪和过去回报的影响,但似乎无法从公开新闻中提取基本信息。我们的研究结果支持市场参与者解释公共信息的不同能力,这反映在零售货币交易者的日内交易活动中。
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引用次数: 0
Sovereign credit rating provision and financial development 主权信用评级提供与金融发展
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102153
Oskar Kowalewski , Prabesh Luitel , Rosanne Vanpée
This paper examines the impact of obtaining a sovereign credit rating for the first time on financial development in 50 emerging countries. Controlling for endogeneity and selection bias, we show that receiving an initial sovereign credit rating significantly transforms domestic financial systems. Rated countries experience a reallocation of bank assets, reduced reliance on domestic bank financing, and increased access to international bond markets, enabling expanded private-sector credit. Sovereign ratings also stimulate local currency bond market development and enhance foreign currency bond issuance. Additionally, they attract portfolio equity inflows and foster the internationalization of domestic banks, though their effects on direct debt flows and FDI are less pronounced. Overall, our findings highlight the critical role of sovereign credit ratings in advancing financial development and integration in emerging markets.
本文考察了首次获得主权信用评级对50个新兴国家金融发展的影响。控制内生性和选择偏差,我们表明接受初始主权信用评级显著改变国内金融体系。获得评级的国家经历了银行资产的重新配置,减少了对国内银行融资的依赖,增加了进入国际债券市场的机会,从而扩大了私营部门信贷。主权评级也刺激了本币债券市场的发展,增加了外币债券的发行。此外,它们吸引投资组合股本流入和促进国内银行的国际化,尽管它们对直接债务流动和外国直接投资的影响不太明显。总体而言,我们的研究结果强调了主权信用评级在促进新兴市场金融发展和一体化方面的关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Could an economy get stuck on a rational pessimism sunspot path? The case of Japan 经济会陷入理性悲观的太阳黑子路径吗?日本的例子
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102142
Vo Phuong Mai Le , David Meenagh , Patrick Minford
Developed economies have experienced slower growth since the 2008 financial crisis, creating fears of “secular stagnation.” Rational expectations models have forward-looking sunspot solutions, which could cause this; here we investigate the case of Japan. We show that a New Keynesian model with a weak equilibrium growth path driven by pessimism sunspot belief shocks matches Japanese economic behaviour. Another possibility is a conventional model where productivity growth has simply slowed down for unknown reasons. Nevertheless, a welfare-optimising approach implies fiscal policy should commit to eliminating the potential sunspot while being prepared to revert to normal policy if inflation rises.
发达经济体自 2008 年金融危机以来增长放缓,引发了对 "长期停滞 "的担忧。理性预期模型具有前瞻性的太阳黑子解决方案,这可能是造成这种情况的原因;在此,我们对日本的情况进行了研究。我们的研究表明,新凯恩斯主义模型在悲观主义太阳黑子信念冲击的驱动下,其弱均衡增长路径与日本的经济行为相吻合。另一种可能是传统模型,即生产率增长因不明原因而放缓。然而,福利优化方法意味着财政政策应致力于消除潜在的太阳黑子,同时准备在通胀上升时恢复正常政策。
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引用次数: 0
Does inflation targeting track record matter for asset prices? Evidence from stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets 通胀目标制对资产价格有影响吗?证据来自股票、债券和外汇市场
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102141
Zhongxia Zhang
Many central banks have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy frameworks since 1990. Yet, monetary authorities’ track records of managing inflation with respect to the stated policy objectives have varied significantly. This paper examines how inflation targeting track records affect asset prices within three common asset classes: stocks, bonds, and exchange rates. The analysis reveals heterogeneous and enduring effects of track records on financial markets. A stronger track record in inflation targeting leads to a more negative reaction from stock markets to inflationary pressures, with effects persisting for about four quarters. Additionally, the sensitivity of rising long-term sovereign bond yields to inflation diminishes for about three quarters as the track record improves. Moreover, credible inflation targeters are more likely to allow greater flexibility in exchange rates to deal with inflationary shocks. Consequently, credible inflation targeting track records produce desirable policy outcomes by reinforcing monetary policy transmission and saving fiscal space.
自1990年以来,许多央行都将通胀目标制作为其货币政策框架。然而,各国货币当局按照既定政策目标管理通胀的过往记录各不相同。本文考察了通胀目标制的跟踪记录如何影响三种常见资产类别中的资产价格:股票、债券和汇率。分析显示,业绩记录对金融市场的影响具有异质性和持久性。更强有力的通胀目标将导致股市对通胀压力做出更消极的反应,其影响将持续约四个季度。此外,随着历史记录的改善,长期主权债券收益率上升对通胀的敏感性在大约三个季度内减弱。此外,可信的通胀目标更有可能允许汇率具有更大的灵活性,以应对通胀冲击。因此,可信的通胀目标制通过加强货币政策传导和节省财政空间,产生了令人满意的政策结果。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of the counter-cyclical factor on renminbi co-movements 逆周期因素对人民币联动的影响
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102144
Yike Sun
The counter-cyclical factor is a foreign exchange policy instrument employed by the Chinese monetary authority to adjust the central parity rate of the renminbi (RMB). This study examines how this policy tool influences the RMB’s co-movements with other currencies. A novel measure of the counter-cyclical factor’s intensity is derived from a rolling estimation of the RMB two-pillar model, enabling a more precise evaluation of the factor’s role. This measure is then incorporated into a modified Frankel–Wei model to assess the factor’s influence. Empirical results indicate that, although the counter-cyclical factor is applied more intensively during the second implementation phase, it reduces RMB co-movements more significantly during the first phase. Further analysis suggests that the initial implementation induces notable RMB appreciation, which in turn weakens the RMB’s correlations with other currencies.
逆周期因子是中国货币管理当局调节人民币汇率中间价的一种外汇政策工具。本研究考察了这一政策工具如何影响人民币与其他货币的联动。通过对人民币双支柱模型的滚动估计,得出了一种新的反周期因素强度测量方法,从而能够更精确地评估该因素的作用。然后将该测量纳入改进的Frankel-Wei模型以评估因素的影响。实证结果表明,虽然逆周期因素在第二阶段的应用更为密集,但在第一阶段,它更显著地减少了人民币的协同波动。进一步分析表明,最初的实施导致人民币显著升值,这反过来又削弱了人民币与其他货币的相关性。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond education: International student inflow and outbound cross-border mergers and acquisitions 超越教育:国际学生流入和对外跨境并购
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102143
Hao Wang , Shuting Tan , Yonghui Han
This paper investigates the impact of international education exchange on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CBMA). Using a comprehensive panel dataset covering 141 countries from 2006 to 2018, we find that international students studying in China have a positive impact on China’s outbound CBMA. Such an effect operates through diplomatic relations, economic cooperation and cultural convergence as the underlying mechanisms. The effect of international education exchange is more pronounced for degree-seeking students than for non-degree-seeking students. Moreover, non-degree-seeking scholarship recipients exert a stronger influence on CBMA than degree-seeking scholarship recipients.
本文研究了国际教育交流对跨国并购(CBMA)的影响。利用 2006 年至 2018 年覆盖 141 个国家的综合面板数据集,我们发现在中国学习的留学生对中国对外并购产生了积极影响。这种影响通过外交关系、经济合作和文化趋同作为内在机制发挥作用。与非学位留学生相比,国际教育交流对学位留学生的影响更为明显。此外,与攻读学位的奖学金获得者相比,非攻读学位的奖学金获得者对 CBMA 的影响更大。
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引用次数: 0
Climate risk and predictability of global stock market volatility 气候风险与全球股市波动的可预测性
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102135
Mingtao Zhou, Yong Ma
This study examines the informative role of climate risk in improving the predictability of global stock market volatility. By aggregating four climate risk proxies of Faccini et al. (2023), relating to physical climate impacts and climate mitigation actions, we reveal that aggregate climate risk is a significantly positive predictor of stock volatility across 32 international markets. This predictability persists in out-of-sample tests and cannot be subsumed by relevant economic and financial uncertainty measures. However, the predictive power of aggregate climate risk exhibits noteworthy variations over time and across regions; it weakens when economic conditions deteriorate, whereas it strengthens following the Paris Agreement and in regions with advanced financial development, high energy intensity, and strong climate change readiness. Moreover, by dissecting the multiple facets of climate risk, we show that physical risks, especially natural disasters, have much stronger predictability than transition risks. These predictive insights offer valuable guidance for risk management, policy planning, and the adjustment of asset pricing models in response to the evolving global climate risk landscape.
本研究考察了气候风险在提高全球股票市场波动的可预测性方面的信息作用。通过汇总Faccini等人(2023)关于物理气候影响和气候减缓行动的四个气候风险指标,我们发现总体气候风险是32个国际市场股票波动的显著正向预测因子。这种可预测性在样本外测试中持续存在,不能纳入相关的经济和金融不确定性措施。然而,总气候风险的预测能力在不同时间和区域间表现出显著的变化;当经济状况恶化时,它会减弱,而在《巴黎协定》之后,在金融发达、能源强度高、气候变化准备能力强的地区,它会增强。此外,通过剖析气候风险的多个方面,我们发现物理风险,特别是自然灾害,比转型风险具有更强的可预测性。这些预测见解为风险管理、政策规划和资产定价模型调整提供了有价值的指导,以应对不断变化的全球气候风险格局。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of corporate diversification on liquidity management: Evidence from lines of credit 公司多元化对流动性管理的影响:来自信贷额度的证据
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102139
Christina Atanasova, Frederick H. Willeboordse
We examine the impact of organizational structure on corporate liquidity, specifically focusing on how business diversification influences firms’ choice between bank lines of credit and cash holdings. Using a large sample of publicly traded companies from both developed and emerging markets, we observe that diversified firms operating across multiple industries (segments) tend to rely more heavily on bank lines of credit than their more focused counterparts. We find that lower correlations in the investment opportunities across business segments and higher correlations between investment opportunities and cash flows are associated with a greater reliance on bank lines of credit as a source of corporate liquidity. Moreover, for Emerging Market firms that face binding financial constraints, the effect of diversification on liquidity management is stronger. Our findings do not support the notion that this behavior is driven by diversified firms with lower aggregate risk or better corporate governance. Instead, the results are consistent with the monitored insurance hypothesis, where diversified firms with lower liquidity risk and hedging requirements use bank lines of credit more extensively.
我们研究了组织结构对公司流动性的影响,特别关注业务多元化如何影响公司在银行信贷额度和现金持有之间的选择。通过对发达市场和新兴市场上市公司的大量样本分析,我们观察到,在多个行业(细分市场)运营的多元化公司往往比更专注的同行更依赖银行信贷额度。我们发现,跨业务部门投资机会的相关性较低,投资机会与现金流量之间的相关性较高,这与更多地依赖银行信贷额度作为企业流动性来源有关。此外,对于面临约束性财务约束的新兴市场公司,多元化对流动性管理的影响更强。我们的发现并不支持这样的观点,即这种行为是由总风险较低或公司治理较好的多元化公司驱动的。相反,结果与监测保险假设一致,即流动性风险和对冲要求较低的多元化公司更广泛地使用银行信贷额度。
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引用次数: 0
Religious similarity in mergers and acquisitions 合并和收购中的宗教相似性
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102138
Yunhao Dai , Xu Huang , Weiqiang Tan , Daifei (Troy) Yao
This study explores the impact of regional religious similarity on merger and acquisition (M&A) likelihood and post-merger outcomes, diverging from prior research that treats religious adherents as a homogeneous group. Analyzing a comprehensive sample of mergers, we find that pairs of firms with more similar regional religious compositions are more likely to engage in M&As and experience improved merger announcement returns. This religious alignment between acquiring and target firms is also linked to superior post-merger operating performance and efficiency. Cross-sectional analyses reveal that employee integration serves as a critical channel through which these performance gains are realized. Market reactions to merger announcements are more favorable when the target firm has a larger workforce, operates in the same industry, or the acquiring firm is more diversified than the target. Our findings suggest that religious similarity fosters mutual understanding, builds trust, and reduces friction in collaborative efforts, making it a significant driver of post-merger synergy. These insights extend beyond the context of any single market, highlighting the broader role of cultural alignment in enhancing M&A success.
本研究探讨了地区宗教相似性对并购(M&;A)可能性和并购后结果的影响,不同于以往将宗教信徒视为同质群体的研究。通过对并购案例的全面分析,我们发现,地域宗教成分更相似的公司对更有可能参与并购,并获得更高的并购公告回报。收购公司和目标公司之间的这种宗教一致性也与合并后的卓越运营绩效和效率有关。横断面分析显示,员工整合是实现这些绩效提升的关键渠道。当目标公司有更多的员工,在同一行业经营,或者收购公司比目标公司更多元化时,市场对合并公告的反应更有利。我们的研究结果表明,宗教相似性促进了相互理解,建立了信任,并减少了合作努力中的摩擦,使其成为并购后协同效应的重要驱动力。这些见解超越了任何单一市场的背景,强调了文化一致性在提高并购成功方面的更广泛作用。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money
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