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Asymmetric Higher-Moment spillovers between sustainable and traditional investments 可持续投资与传统投资之间不对称的高时刻溢出效应
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102078
Xie He , Shigeyuki Hamori
This study proposes a novel framework that decomposes volatility and higher-moment kurtosis into good and bad volatility/kurtosis—related to positive and negative shocks, respectively. Accordingly, we analyze the spillover effects of good and bad volatility/kurtosis between sustainable and traditional investments separately. During most periods, bad volatility spillovers dominate good volatility spillovers, whereas good kurtosis spillovers dominate bad kurtosis spillovers. However, during specific extreme events, such as Brexit and COVID-19, bad kurtosis spillovers dominate. This study’s findings can help investors in developing extreme risk management strategies and policymakers in preventing harmful shock transmissions across markets and fostering financial stability.
本研究提出了一个新颖的框架,将波动率和高次峰度分别分解为与正向冲击和负向冲击相关的好波动率和坏波动率/峰度。因此,我们分别分析了好的和坏的波动率/峰度在可持续投资和传统投资之间的溢出效应。在大多数时期,坏的波动率溢出效应主导好的波动率溢出效应,而好的峰度溢出效应主导坏的峰度溢出效应。然而,在特定的极端事件中,如英国脱欧和 COVID-19,坏的峰度溢出效应占主导地位。本研究的发现有助于投资者制定极端风险管理策略,也有助于政策制定者防止有害冲击跨市场传播,促进金融稳定。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting exchange rate volatility: An amalgamation approach 预测汇率波动:综合方法
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102067
Antonios K. Alexandridis , Ekaterini Panopoulou , Ioannis Souropanis
The importance of exchange rate volatility forecasting has both practical and academic merit. Our aim is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the forecasting ability of financial and macroeconomics variables for future exchange rate volatility. We employ seven widely traded currencies against the US dollar and examine linear models and a variety of machine learning, dimensionality reduction and forecast combination approaches, along with creating a grand forecast (amalgamation approach) from these approaches. Our findings highlight the predictive power of the amalgamation approach, as well as the positive contribution of macroeconomic and financial variables in the forecasting experiment. Furthermore, we generate forecasts on the separate frequencies of volatility using wavelet analysis, in order to extract frequency-related information and examine timing effects in the performance of the methods.
汇率波动预测的重要性既有实用价值,也有学术价值。我们的目标是全面分析金融和宏观经济变量对未来汇率波动的预测能力。我们采用了七种广泛交易的货币兑美元汇率,研究了线性模型和各种机器学习、降维和预测组合方法,并从这些方法中创建了一个总预测(合并方法)。我们的研究结果凸显了合并法的预测能力,以及宏观经济和金融变量在预测实验中的积极贡献。此外,我们还利用小波分析对波动的不同频率进行了预测,以提取与频率相关的信息,并研究这些方法的性能中的时间效应。
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引用次数: 0
Firm biodiversity risk, climate vulnerabilities, and bankruptcy risk 企业生物多样性风险、气候脆弱性和破产风险
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102075
Gbenga Adamolekun
This study examines the relationship between firms’ biodiversity risk, climate susceptibility, and bankruptcy risk. The findings indicate that firm exposure to biodiversity risk increases the likelihood of financial distress. Furthermore, we document that firms’ susceptibility to climate risk increases the likelihood of bankruptcy risk. We also demonstrate that financial constraints, growth opportunities, and membership in carbon-intensive industries can worsen or alleviate the bankruptcy implications of climate-related risk. Firms’ continent of operation is also an important consideration. The findings imply that severe climate-related vulnerabilities and firm biodiversity risk have profound consequences for corporate outcomes. This study sheds more light on how corporate financial outlook is impacted by ecological degradation and climate-related vulnerabilities.
本研究探讨了企业的生物多样性风险、气候敏感性和破产风险之间的关系。研究结果表明,企业面临生物多样性风险会增加陷入财务困境的可能性。此外,我们还发现,企业对气候风险的敏感性增加了破产风险的可能性。我们还证明,财务限制、增长机会和碳密集型行业的成员资格会加剧或减轻气候相关风险的破产影响。企业的经营地域也是一个重要的考虑因素。研究结果表明,与气候相关的严重脆弱性和企业生物多样性风险会对企业结果产生深远影响。这项研究进一步揭示了企业财务前景如何受到生态退化和气候相关脆弱性的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Organization capital, dividends and firm value: International evidence 组织资本、股息和公司价值:国际证据
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102074
Ioannis Chasiotis , Georgios Loukopoulos , Kanellos Toudas
This study investigates the relationship between organization capital, dividends, and firm value across 61 countries. We find that firms with higher organization capital distribute more dividends. By exploiting changes in the stringency of national labor regulations, we demonstrate that this effect strengthens when labor markets become more flexible. Additionally, we document that the market places a premium on dividend payouts from firms with higher organization capital. Further analysis reveals that this premium differential and the positive organization capital-dividend payouts relationship, are more pronounced in firms and countries marked by substantial agency issues. The robustness of our evidence is affirmed through several endogeneity tests, supporting the agency view of organization capital.
本研究调查了 61 个国家的组织资本、股息和公司价值之间的关系。我们发现,组织资本越高的公司分红越多。通过利用各国劳动法规严格程度的变化,我们证明了当劳动力市场变得更加灵活时,这种效应会加强。此外,我们还记录了市场对组织资本较高的公司股利分配的溢价。进一步的分析表明,这种溢价差异以及组织资本与股利支付之间的正相关关系在存在大量代理问题的企业和国家中更为明显。通过几个内生性检验,我们的证据的稳健性得到了证实,支持了组织资本的代理观点。
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引用次数: 0
CEO age and corporate environmental policies 首席执行官年龄与企业环境政策
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102076
Huong Le , Tung Nguyen , Andros Gregoriou
This study examines the link between CEO age and firm environmental performance. Building on the upper echelons theory, we predict that a firm is more environmentally friendly if CEOs are younger. Using hand-collected data of a total 12,512 plant-year observations for 1,074 individual firms in the period from 2010 to 2022, we document evidence that younger CEOs release significantly less greenhouse gas emissions, consistent with our conjecture. Additionally, we note that younger CEOs outperform older CEOs in terms of greenhouse gas emissions by investing more in abatement initiatives, increasing manufacturing efficiency, and increasing their use of ecologically friendly fuel. Our evidence of CEO age offers relevant implications for directors, shareholders, and financial regulators.
本研究探讨了首席执行官年龄与企业环境绩效之间的联系。在高层理论的基础上,我们预测如果首席执行官比较年轻,企业就会更加环保。利用手工收集的 2010 年至 2022 年期间 1,074 家公司共计 12,512 个工厂年的观测数据,我们记录了年轻 CEO 排放的温室气体显著减少的证据,这与我们的猜想一致。此外,我们还注意到,年轻的首席执行官在温室气体排放方面的表现优于年长的首席执行官,他们在减排措施、提高生产效率和增加使用生态友好型燃料方面投入更多。我们关于首席执行官年龄的证据为董事、股东和金融监管机构提供了相关启示。
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引用次数: 0
Financial openness, liability composition of banks, and bank risk: International evidence 金融开放、银行负债构成与银行风险:国际证据
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102066
Zixian Li, Fernando Moreira
Employing a panel dataset encompassing 4,412 banks from 87 countries from 1990 to 2020, we apply the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to investigate the relationship between financial openness, banks’ liability composition, and bank risk. Our findings reveal that financial openness can directly lead to an increase in bank risk in the short term but a reduction in bank risk over the long term. Additionally, we identify the composition of bank liabilities as a novel channel between financial openness and bank risk. Specifically, in the short term, financial openness amplifies bank risk through an escalation in the ratio of short-term liabilities juxtaposed with a decrease in the ratio of long-term liabilities. Conversely, in the long term, financial openness diminishes bank risk by diminishing short-term liabilities’ ratios while concurrently enhancing the proportions of long-term liabilities. Furthermore, it is noted that the direct effects of financial openness on banking risk, whether short- or long-term, may exhibit heterogeneity across different periods, country development levels, and types of capital flow.
我们运用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型研究了金融开放、银行负债构成和银行风险之间的关系,该面板数据集涵盖了 1990 年至 2020 年 87 个国家的 4412 家银行。我们的研究结果表明,金融开放会在短期内直接导致银行风险的增加,但在长期内会降低银行风险。此外,我们还发现银行负债构成是金融开放与银行风险之间的一个新渠道。具体来说,在短期内,金融开放会通过短期负债比率的上升和长期负债比率的下降放大银行风险。相反,从长期来看,金融开放会降低短期负债比率,同时提高长期负债比例,从而降低银行风险。此外,我们还注意到,金融开放对银行风险的直接影响,无论是短期影响还是长期影响,在不同时期、不同国家的发展水平以及不同类型的资本流动中都可能表现出异质性。
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引用次数: 0
Market timing with moving average distance: International evidence 利用移动平均距离把握市场时机:国际证据
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102065
Menachem Meni Abudy , Guy Kaplanski , Yevgeny Mugerman
We explore the ability of the distance between short- and long-run moving averages, called MAD, to predict future returns of international market-wide indices. MAD portfolios yield abnormal profits after transaction costs, which do not reverse in the long run. This suggests that anchoring to long-run moving averages is a global phenomenon that applies also to market-wide indices. The annualized MAD portfolios’ alpha values are double-digit, with Sharpe ratios significantly higher than the global benchmarks. Similar results for developed economies and developed markets indicate that international diversification is still effective and offers significant economic benefits even among developed countries.
我们探讨了短期和长期移动平均线之间的距离(称为 MAD)预测国际全市场指数未来收益的能力。扣除交易成本后,MAD 投资组合产生了异常利润,但这种利润在长期内不会逆转。这表明,锚定长期移动平均线是一种全球现象,也适用于全市场指数。年化 MAD 投资组合的阿尔法值为两位数,夏普比率明显高于全球基准。发达经济体和发达市场的类似结果表明,即使在发达国家中,国际多样化仍然有效,并能带来显著的经济效益。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting Bitcoin volatility using machine learning techniques 利用机器学习技术预测比特币波动性
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102064
Zih-Chun Huang , Ivan Sangiorgi , Andrew Urquhart
This paper studies the Bitcoin volatility forecasting performance between popular traditional econometric models and machine learning techniques. We compare the 1-day to 2-month ahead forecasting performance of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and a hybrid Convolutional Neural Network-LSTM (CNN-LSTM) model to the traditional models. We find that neural networks outperform Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models for all forecasting horizons. Furthermore, the LSTM model outperforms the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model and by integrating the Markov Transition Field (MTF) into the CNN-LSTM model, we achieve superior forecasting results in the short-term, particularly for the 7-day forecasts.
本文研究了流行的传统计量经济学模型与机器学习技术之间的比特币波动率预测性能。我们比较了长短期记忆(LSTM)和混合卷积神经网络-LSTM(CNN-LSTM)模型与传统模型的 1 天至 2 个月的预测性能。我们发现,在所有预测期限内,神经网络都优于广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)模型。此外,LSTM 模型优于异质自回归(HAR)模型,而且通过将马尔可夫转换场(MTF)整合到 CNN-LSTM 模型中,我们在短期内取得了优异的预测结果,尤其是在 7 天预测方面。
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引用次数: 0
Good vs. bad volatility in major cryptocurrencies: The dichotomy and drivers of connectedness 主要加密货币波动的好坏对比:二分法和关联性驱动因素
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102062
Jan Sila, Evzen Kocenda, Ladislav Kristoufek, Jiri Kukacka
Cryptocurrencies exhibit unique statistical and dynamic properties compared to those of traditional financial assets, making the study of their volatility crucial for portfolio managers and traders. We investigate the volatility connectedness dynamics of a representative set of eight major crypto assets. Methodologically, we decompose the measured volatility into positive and negative components and employ the time-varying parameters vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) framework to show distinct dynamics associated with market booms and downturns. Our findings indicate that crypto connectedness reflects important events and oscillates substantially while reaching lower limit values when compared to traditional financial markets. Periods of extremely high or low connectedness are clearly linked to specific events in the crypto market and macroeconomic or monetary history. Furthermore, existing asymmetry from good and bad volatility indicates that market downturns spill over substantially faster than comparable market surges. Overall, the connectedness dynamics are driven by a combination of both crypto (momentum, on-chain activity, off-chain activity) and legacy financial and economic (financial and economic uncertainty, and financial market performance) factors, while the asymmetry is more connected to the off-chain crypto activity and the combination of economic, financial, and monetary factors. In both the total connectedness and asymmetry modeling, these can serve as hands-on indicators to be further translated into specific portfolio re-balancing decisions, risk management, and regulatory frameworks.
与传统金融资产相比,加密货币具有独特的统计和动态特性,因此研究其波动性对投资组合经理和交易者至关重要。我们研究了具有代表性的八种主要加密资产的波动性关联动态。在方法上,我们将测量的波动率分解为正负两个部分,并采用时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)框架来显示与市场繁荣和衰退相关的独特动态。我们的研究结果表明,与传统金融市场相比,加密货币的连通性反映了重要事件并大幅波动,同时达到较低的极限值。关联度极高或极低的时期显然与加密货币市场的特定事件以及宏观经济或货币历史有关。此外,现存的好坏波动不对称现象表明,市场下滑的蔓延速度远远快于可比的市场飙升速度。总体而言,连通性动态是由加密货币(动量、链上活动、链下活动)和传统金融与经济(金融与经济不确定性、金融市场表现)因素共同驱动的,而不对称则与链下加密货币活动以及经济、金融和货币因素的结合联系更大。在总体关联性和不对称性模型中,这些都可以作为实践指标,进一步转化为具体的投资组合再平衡决策、风险管理和监管框架。
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引用次数: 0
Financial sector development and microcredit to small firms 金融部门发展和向小企业提供小额贷款
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102063
Désiré Kanga , Issouf Soumare , Hubert Tchakoute Tchuigoua
This article investigates the relationship between countries’ financial sector development and the loans extended to micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs or small firms) by microfinance institutions (MFIs). Using 4,801 MFI-year observations worldwide, we find a negative relationship between financial sector development and MSME lending by microfinance institutions. In other words, improvement in financial development, defined as a combination of depth, access, and efficiency, decreases micro-lending to small firms due essentially to intense competition from banks. Moreover, looking at the ownership status of microfinance institutions, we find that the intense competition between profit-oriented microfinance institutions and banks mainly drives the observed negative relationship. For nonprofit microfinance institutions, financial sector development is not significantly associated with their lending to small firms. In a less developed financial sector, microfinance institutions lend more to small firms, fulfilling their social mission.
本文研究了各国金融业发展与小额信贷机构(MFIs)向微型、小型和中型企业(MSMEs 或小型公司)发放贷款之间的关系。通过对全球 4801 个小额信贷机构年的观察,我们发现金融业发展与小额信贷机构的中小微企业贷款之间存在负相关关系。换句话说,金融发展(定义为深度、准入和效率的组合)的改善会减少对小型企业的小额贷款,主要原因是来自银行的激烈竞争。此外,从小额信贷机构的所有制状况来看,我们发现以盈利为目的的小额信贷机构与银行之间的激烈竞争是导致观察到的负相关关系的主要原因。对于非营利性小额信贷机构而言,金融业的发展与其对小企业的贷款关系不大。在金融业欠发达的情况下,小额信贷机构会向小企业提供更多贷款,从而履行其社会使命。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money
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