Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money最新文献

英文中文

Digital disruption in financing: Are fintech and bigtech credit reshaping corporate access to capital? 金融领域的数字化颠覆：金融科技和大型科技信贷正在重塑企业的融资渠道吗？

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102198

Habib Hussain Khan , Fiza Qureshi , Dima Jamali

This study examines the role of fintech and bigtech credit, collectively referred to as alternative digital credit, in alleviating corporate financing constraints across 70 countries from 2013 to 2019. The findings indicate that alternative digital credit alleviates financing constraints by reducing investment-to-cash flow sensitivity, particularly in developing countries. This effect is more pronounced in financially developed markets with strong institutional frameworks but less competitive banking sectors. The advantages of alternative digital credit are particularly notable for small, young, and manufacturing firms. Firms engaged in international trade and those owned by foreign investors face fewer constraints due to their inherent advantages. Consistency checks using alternative measures of financing constraints reaffirm these findings. The analysis of transmission channels further highlights that the entry of fintech and bigtech firms weakens banks’ market power, encouraging greater competition in the banking sector and ultimately lowering firms’ financing constraints. These insights highlight the transformative potential of alternative digital credit in promoting financial inclusion and propose targeted policies to enhance its adoption globally.

本研究考察了金融科技和大科技信贷（统称为替代数字信贷）在缓解2013年至2019年70个国家企业融资约束方面的作用。研究结果表明，替代数字信贷通过降低投资对现金流的敏感性来缓解融资约束，特别是在发展中国家。这种影响在金融发达的市场更为明显，这些市场拥有强大的制度框架，但银行业竞争力较弱。替代数字信贷的优势对于小型、年轻的制造企业尤其明显。从事国际贸易的公司和外国投资者拥有的公司由于其固有的优势而面临较少的限制。使用其他融资约束措施进行一致性检查重申了这些发现。传导渠道分析进一步强调，金融科技和大型科技公司的进入削弱了银行的市场支配力，鼓励了银行业的更大竞争，最终降低了企业的融资约束。这些见解强调了替代数字信贷在促进普惠金融方面的变革潜力，并提出了有针对性的政策，以促进其在全球的采用。

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引用次数: 0

When fiscal discipline meets macroeconomic stability: The Euro-stability bond 财政纪律与宏观经济稳定：欧元稳定债券

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102196

Luciano Greco , Francesco Jacopo Pintus , Davide Raggi

We study the consequences of introducing an Euro-stability bond mechanism that implies sovereign debt mutualization in the Eurozone without any significant short-term redistribution across countries or perverse incentives to fiscal profligacy. In a simple structural model of the economy, we theoretically show that this mechanism is able to reproduce the market fiscal discipline while increasing the social welfare of all countries with respect to the real market discipline. Relying on a GVAR model including 10 Eurozone countries, U.S., Japan and China, we then analyse the future evolution of public debt (and other key macroeconomic variables) over time by comparing the predicted forecast in the baseline and in a counterfactual scenarios with the Euro-stability bond. We find no significant differences in the future path of public debt-to-GDP ratios in the two cases, but a consistent reduction in the forecast’s uncertainty in the counterfactual scenario. The reduced uncertainty of forecasts of public debt and other macroeconomic variables highlights the potential capacity of the Euro-stability bond to immunize the Eurozone from classical macroeconomic instability shocks that derive by the very existence of high sovereign debts and the related significant rollover and contagion risks in a framework of decentralized fiscal policies. To this extent, we finally exploit the results of the GVAR model to assess the capacity of the proposed scheme to reduce the probability of adverse macroeconomic events.

我们研究了引入欧元稳定债券机制的后果，该机制意味着欧元区的主权债务共同化，而不会在各国之间产生任何重大的短期再分配或对财政挥霍的不当激励。在一个简单的经济结构模型中，我们从理论上证明了这种机制能够再现市场财政纪律，同时相对于真正的市场纪律增加所有国家的社会福利。基于包括10个欧元区国家、美国、日本和中国在内的GVAR模型，我们通过比较基线和反事实情景下与欧元稳定债券的预测预测，分析了公共债务（以及其他关键宏观经济变量）的未来演变。我们发现，在这两种情况下，公共债务与gdp比率的未来路径没有显著差异，但在反事实情景中，预测的不确定性一致降低。公共债务和其他宏观经济变量预测的不确定性降低，突显了欧元稳定债券的潜在能力，使欧元区免受传统宏观经济不稳定冲击的影响，这种冲击是由高主权债务的存在以及在分散财政政策框架下相关的重大展期和传染风险造成的。在这种程度上，我们最终利用GVAR模型的结果来评估所提出的方案降低不利宏观经济事件概率的能力。

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引用次数: 0

Sovereign credit rating downgrades and Growth-at-Risk 主权信用评级下调，经济增长面临风险

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102195

George Kladakis , Alexandros Skouralis

This paper examines whether sovereign credit rating changes are linked to increased future macroeconomic downside risks based on the Growth-at-Risk framework by Adrian et al. (2019). Our findings reveal that downgrades significantly increase tail risk by lowering the 5th percentile of four-quarters ahead GDP growth by 2.95 percentage points, whereas upgrades yield a smaller and inconsistent effect of 0.45 percentage points. Standard panel OLS results show a reduced impact of 1.11 percentage points on GDP growth following a downgrade, underscoring the importance of examining effects beyond the mean. Further analysis reveals an asymmetrical impact across quantiles and time horizons, with speculative-grade countries particularly vulnerable to downgrades. Downgrades from all major agencies affect tail risk, with Fitch having the largest negative impact, while only Moody’s upgrades have a significant effect. Moreover, our empirical evidence suggests that the effect of credit rating downgrades is, at least partially mitigated, by the adoption of post-GFC regulatory reforms, aligning with these policies’ aim to reduce reliance on CRAs and enhance financial stability. Lastly, our analysis identifies investment and sovereign bond spreads as key channels through which downgrades affect macroeconomic outcomes, however, only the latter is significantly associated with downside risks to GDP growth. Robustness tests that include endogeneity checks, additional controls, alternative CRA data and quantile regression methodology, confirm our findings.

本文基于Adrian等人（2019）的风险增长框架，研究了主权信用评级变化是否与未来宏观经济下行风险增加有关。我们的研究结果显示，评级下调显著增加尾部风险，将未来四个季度GDP增长的第5个百分位数降低2.95个百分点，而评级上调的影响较小，且不一致，为0.45个百分点。标准面板OLS结果显示，评级下调后，对GDP增长的影响降低了1.11个百分点，这突显了检验均值以外影响的重要性。进一步的分析表明，在分位数和时间范围内，这种影响是不对称的，投机级国家尤其容易受到评级下调的影响。所有主要评级机构的评级下调都会影响尾部风险，其中惠誉的负面影响最大，而只有穆迪的评级上调才会产生显著影响。此外，我们的经验证据表明，信用评级下调的影响至少在一定程度上可以通过采用后全球金融危机监管改革来缓解，这些改革与这些政策的目标相一致，以减少对评级机构的依赖并增强金融稳定性。最后，我们的分析指出，投资和主权债券利差是评级下调影响宏观经济结果的关键渠道，然而，只有后者与GDP增长的下行风险显著相关。鲁棒性测试包括内生性检查、额外控制、替代CRA数据和分位数回归方法，证实了我们的发现。

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引用次数: 0

Relative finance wages and inequality: A role for intangibles? 相对金融工资和不平等：无形资产的作用？

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102192

Adnan Velic

We investigate the role of intangible capital in the growth of relative finance wages using (i) a production framework entailing multi-level nesting and (ii) reduced-form analysis. We find that the degree and effects of complementarity between skilled labor and intangible capital are much more pronounced in finance than in the rest of the market economy. The stronger positive effects of such complementarity on finance skill premia are reinforced by relatively stronger unskilled labor substitution possibilities and technical change in the sector. Despite accounting for under a tenth of overall economic activity, finance offsets up to almost a third of declines in skilled–unskilled wage disparities nationally. We thereby find that finance contributes inordinately to income inequality. Intensified intangible capital growth in the industry stands to exacerbate this trend. Finally, our study suggests that financial deregulation, globalization, banking competition, and domestic credit expansion positively affect relative finance wages. Stricter labor market protection meanwhile dampens the impact of banking competition.

我们使用(i)涉及多层次嵌套的生产框架和（ii）简化形式分析来研究无形资本在相对金融工资增长中的作用。我们发现，在金融领域，技术劳动力和无形资本之间的互补性的程度和效果比在市场经济的其他领域更为明显。相对较强的非熟练劳动力替代可能性和行业技术变革强化了这种互补性对金融技能溢价的正向效应。尽管金融业在整体经济活动中所占的比重不到十分之一，但却抵消了全国熟练工人与非熟练工人工资差距下降的近三分之一。因此，我们发现金融对收入不平等的贡献过大。该行业无形资本的增长加剧了这一趋势。最后，我们的研究表明，金融放松管制、全球化、银行业竞争和国内信贷扩张对相对金融工资有正向影响。同时，更严格的劳动力市场保护抑制了银行业竞争的影响。

引用次数: 0

Centralized exchanges & proof-of-solvency: The guardians of trust 中心化交易所和偿付能力证明：信任的守护者

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102183

David Vidal-Tomás

The stability and transparency of centralized cryptocurrency exchanges have received limited attention, despite their growing role in digital asset markets. This paper analyzes their stability through proof-of-assets disclosures. Using an AR-GARCH framework and MVaR assessment, we evaluate centralized exchange resilience during the extreme events of 2022 within the impersonal trust framework of Shapiro (1987). Our findings highlight that the FTX and Celsius bankruptcies had the most detrimental impact on market stability, while stablecoins played a dual role—enhancing resilience under normal conditions but posing systemic risks in the event of failure. Additionally, exchanges should maintain extra reserves of 6% to 14% to withstand adverse events and improve resilience during periods of stress. Paradoxically, the cryptocurrency ecosystem, designed to reduce reliance on trust, now demands even more “guardians of trust” than traditional finance to create a trustworthy environment for participants.

集中式加密货币交易所的稳定性和透明度受到的关注有限，尽管它们在数字资产市场中的作用越来越大。本文通过资产披露证明分析了它们的稳定性。利用AR-GARCH框架和MVaR评估，我们在Shapiro（1987）的非个人信任框架下评估了2022年极端事件期间的集中式交换弹性。我们的研究结果强调，FTX和Celsius破产对市场稳定的影响最为不利，而稳定币发挥了双重作用——在正常情况下增强弹性，但在破产时构成系统性风险。此外，交易所应保持6%至14%的额外储备，以抵御不利事件，并在压力时期提高弹性。矛盾的是，旨在减少对信任依赖的加密货币生态系统，现在需要比传统金融更多的“信任守护者”，为参与者创造一个值得信赖的环境。

引用次数: 0

Stock market liberalization and exports of small and medium-sized enterprises 股票市场自由化与中小企业出口

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102182

Liting Fang , Lerong He , Liying Huang

The paper investigates the impact of stock market liberalization on the exports of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Using the launch of China’s Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Program as a quasi-experiment, we apply a difference-in-differences design to examine how the relaxation of foreign investment in listed Chinese SMEs stimulates these firms’ exports. We find that SMEs qualified for the Stock Connect program are associated with a larger increase in export propensity and export intensity in the post-liberalization period than the control group of SMEs unqualified for the program. We also confirm that stock market liberalization increases foreign institutional investor investment and reduces SMEs’ financing constraints, thus encouraging risk sharing, providing more information and resources to SMEs, and increasing their willingness and ability to export. In addition, we show that the influence of stock market liberalization on SMEs’ exports is contingent on industry, firm, and executive characteristics that shape firms’ resource needs and their perceptions of risk and uncertainty associated with exporting. Finally, we provide modest evidence that stock market liberalization encourages outward foreign direct investment. Overall, our paper reveals the facilitating role of stock market liberalization in boosting SMEs’ exports, the underlying mechanisms explaining this relationship, and the contingency factors affecting the strength of this relationship.

本文研究了股票市场自由化对中小企业出口的影响。利用中国深港通计划的启动作为准实验，我们采用差异中的差异设计来检验外国对中国上市中小企业投资的放松如何刺激这些企业的出口。我们发现，符合沪港通条件的中小企业在后开放时期的出口倾向和出口强度的增长幅度大于不符合沪港通条件的中小企业对照组。我们还确认，股票市场自由化增加了境外机构投资者的投资，减少了中小企业的融资约束，从而鼓励风险分担，为中小企业提供更多信息和资源，增强其出口意愿和能力。此外，我们发现股票市场自由化对中小企业出口的影响取决于行业、企业和高管特征，这些特征决定了企业的资源需求以及他们对与出口相关的风险和不确定性的看法。最后，我们提供了适度的证据表明，股票市场自由化鼓励对外直接投资。总体而言，本文揭示了股票市场自由化对中小企业出口的促进作用，解释这种关系的潜在机制，以及影响这种关系强度的偶然性因素。

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引用次数: 0

Predictable liquidity properties in a Segmented, inelastic stock market 在一个分段的、无弹性的股票市场中可预测的流动性特性

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102181

Haim Kedar-Levy , Joon-Seok Kim , Sean Sehyun Yoo

We explore the predictive capability of two investment strategies on idiosyncratic volatility, liquidity risk and liquidity commonality, by investor type. Investors are characterized as positive-feedback or contrarian once their trades are significantly associated with daily stock returns on a given month. We find that this classification has predictive power: positive-feedback traders (mainly foreign investors) tend to increase, while contrarian traders (mainly local individuals) tend to reduce, the following month’s volatility and liquidity. Different investor clienteles segment the market by stock characteristics, questioning linear cross-sectional pricing. Controlling for supply inelasticity we find that share issuance/buyback datapoints tilt some of the statistics and blur the findings.

根据投资者类型，探讨了两种投资策略对特质波动率、流动性风险和流动性共性的预测能力。一旦投资者的交易与给定月份的每日股票回报显著相关，他们就被定性为正反馈投资者或反向投资者。我们发现这种分类具有预测能力：正反馈交易者（主要是外国投资者）倾向于增加，而反向交易者（主要是本地个人）倾向于减少，接下来一个月的波动性和流动性。不同的投资者客户根据股票特征细分市场，质疑线性截面定价。在控制供应不弹性的情况下，我们发现股票发行/回购数据点倾斜了一些统计数据，模糊了研究结果。

引用次数: 0

Societal secrecy and corporate debt financing choice 社会保密与企业债务融资选择

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-06-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102179

Cephas Simon Peter Dak-Adzaklo , Solomon Wise Dodzidenu Adza , Joseph Maxwell Asamoah , Pascar Tagwan Tah

We investigate the impact of societal secrecy on corporate debt financing decisions. Based a sample of 30,680 firms across 34 countries, we find robust evidence that societal secrecy is positively associated with bank debt financing and negatively associated with public debt financing. This finding is robust to a wide variety of sensitivity tests and to addressing endogeneity concerns. Cross-sectional analyses show that strong shareholder rights protection and the degree of internationalization moderate the relation between societal secrecy and debt choice. Additional analyses reveal that societal secrecy influences the choice of debt financing through three channels: information asymmetry, proprietary cost information, and information production cost. Our study sheds light on societal secrecy as a potential explanation for the variations in public debt market development across countries.

我们研究了社会保密对公司债务融资决策的影响。基于34个国家30,680家公司的样本，我们发现强有力的证据表明，社会保密与银行债务融资呈正相关，与公共债务融资负相关。这一发现是稳健的各种敏感性测试和解决内生性问题。横断面分析表明，强大的股东权利保护和国际化程度调节了社会保密与债务选择之间的关系。进一步的分析表明，社会保密性通过三个渠道影响债务融资选择：信息不对称、专有成本信息和信息生产成本。我们的研究揭示了社会保密作为各国公共债务市场发展差异的潜在解释。

引用次数: 0

Does Banks’ environmental engagement impact funding costs? 银行的环境参与是否会影响融资成本？

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102184

Md Jaber Al Islam , Fernando Moreira , Mustapha Douch

Despite growing research on corporate environmental performance, the effect of banks’ environmental engagement on funding costs remains unclear. While some evidence suggests that environmentally committed banks secure lower funding costs, other studies report no significant effect, leaving the evidence inconclusive. This study addresses this inconsistency by analysing distinct funding cost measures in a global sample and demonstrating that banks with strong environmental engagement consistently benefit from reduced funding costs across multiple dimensions. The advantage is more pronounced among banks in advanced, less concentrated economies with stronger currencies and lower deposit levels. The Paris Agreement has raised awareness among depositors and investors about their role in mitigating climate change. Although such support is generally driven by sound risk management, capital adequacy, and asset size, periods of rising real interest rates and economic crises shift priorities toward higher financial returns. Our results remain robust across alternative samples, model specifications, estimation methods, funding cost measures, and endogeneity correction techniques.

尽管对企业环境绩效的研究越来越多，但银行环境参与对融资成本的影响仍不清楚。虽然一些证据表明，致力于环保的银行获得了较低的融资成本，但其他研究报告没有显著影响，因此证据不确定。本研究通过分析全球样本中不同的融资成本指标来解决这种不一致性，并证明具有强大环境参与的银行始终受益于多个维度的融资成本降低。这种优势在发达、集中度较低、货币较坚挺、存款水平较低的经济体的银行中更为明显。《巴黎协定》提高了存款人和投资者对自己在减缓气候变化中的作用的认识。虽然这种支持通常是由健全的风险管理、资本充足率和资产规模驱动的，但实际利率上升和经济危机时期将优先考虑更高的财务回报。我们的结果在可选样本、模型规格、估计方法、资金成本度量和内质性校正技术中都是稳健的。

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引用次数: 0

The role of US bank liquidity and regulations in Covered Interest Parity deviations 美国银行流动性和监管在利差平价偏离中的作用

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-06-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102173

Walter Bazán-Palomino, Marco Ortiz, Marco E. Terrones, Diego Winkelried

This paper examines how private bank regulation and liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve in the US are related to deviations from the covered interest parity (CIP). We find evidence that the effects of bank liquidity on CIP deviations partially offset those resulting from regulatory changes in a sample of 11 OECD countries over the 2001-2019 period. This finding supports the conjecture that changes in private banks’ liquidity and regulation can significantly affect the cross-currency basis. Interestingly, the effects of liquidity on CIP deviations become more pronounced as bank regulation intensifies, reflecting interaction effects. One implication is that stricter regulations may amplify liquidity-related distortions, thereby increasing CIP deviations.

本文考察了美国联邦储备委员会提供的私人银行监管和流动性如何与偏离覆盖利率平价（CIP）相关。我们发现有证据表明，在2001-2019年期间，11个经合组织国家的样本中，银行流动性对CIP偏差的影响部分抵消了监管变化带来的影响。这一发现支持了私人银行流动性和监管变化会显著影响跨货币基差的猜想。有趣的是，流动性对CIP偏差的影响随着银行监管的加强而变得更加明显，反映了交互效应。一个暗示是，更严格的监管可能会放大流动性相关的扭曲，从而增加CIP偏差。

引用次数: 0

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