Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money最新文献

We investigate the existence of a term structure in cross-currency swap bases, a measure for CIP violations, to identify limits to arbitrage in foreign exchange swap markets. Based on estimates from a multivariate model of USD cross-currency bases for G10 currencies that caters for a number of known intermediary constraints as well as linkages between currency pairs our findings highlight the importance of two-tiered arbitrage, risk aversion, regulation, and policy in explaining this term structure of CIP violations.

We present robust international evidence that managerial social capital is a significant determinant of dividend policy worldwide. Our analysis reveals that social capital mitigates information asymmetry and financial constraints, thereby resulting in increased dividend payouts. The effect is particularly pronounced for firms anticipating high cash retention costs. These findings are consistent with the pecking-order perspective of corporate payouts. Moreover, we identify a significant moderating role of shareholder legal protection and national cultural characteristics. Our results remain robust across alternative model specifications and tests for endogeneity.

The enforcement of peer-to-peer (P2P) registration requirements in mid-2018 triggered a P2P market meltdown, highlighting the inherent challenge faced by Chinese market participants in distinguishing between genuine and fraudulent fintech firms. The difference-in-difference results suggest that the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) perception can effectively halve investor outflows and borrower outflows during periods of uncertainty. Dynamic analysis further validates the parallel-trend assumption and underscores the persistent influence of TBTF perception. Moreover, the empirical findings suggest that, in the face of a market downturn, fintech market participants become unresponsive to all other certification mechanisms, including venture capital participation, custodian banks, and third-party guarantees.

This paper investigates the impact of socially responsible banking activities on banks’ risk profiles, using data from the period of turmoil caused by the Coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak in Europe. Our findings show that socially responsible banking activities served as a risk-hedging strategy at the peak of the pandemic. Furthermore, we reveal the role of banks’ environmental and social engagement in reducing the exposure to country-level Covid-19 cases and public perception using a Google Trends sentiment analysis. Finally, in explaining the ESG-bank risk relationship, we identify a mediating role of the Covid-19 “panic” as a viable economic channel.

This study examines the interconnectedness between conventional and ethical indexes. Using a Bayesian graphical vector autoregressive model, we derive the contemporaneous and temporal interdependencies among these stock index returns before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. Our model specification strategy combines vector autoregressive models with networks. The findings provide empirical evidence of increased interconnectedness during the Covid-19 period across all networks. Notably, the religious and FTSE Islamic networks exhibited greater resilience during the pandemic. This could be attributed to the rigorous screening processes for religious portfolios, which focus on lower-leveraged equity stocks, contributing to their stability. Additionally, our results show that the Covid-19 crisis affected network density and the roles of key player shock transmitter entities, as indicated by changes in hub and authority scores, with new key players emerging during the crisis.

Acknowledging the potential detrimental impact that twin-deficits can have on sovereign risk, this study uses a two-step approach to assess the impact of fiscal and external sustainability on sovereign risk dynamics for a panel of 27 European economies from Q4 2001 to Q3 2022. We first estimate a country-specific time-varying measure of fiscal sustainability, based on the cointegration between government revenues and expenditures and external sustainability, derived from the cointegration of exports and imports. We then use these time-varying coefficients to assess their impact on sovereign risk, proxied by 10-year CDS and CDS spreads (against the US), employing a Weighted Least Squares (WLS) analysis. Notably, we show that an improvement of both fiscal and external sustainability lead to a reduction in sovereign risk. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced for countries experiencing an upward trajectory in public debt levels.

This study decomposes the overall return comovement into intraday and overnight comovement based on a model-free framework. It shows that intraday return comovement contributes the most to the overall return comovement, but the impact of overnight return comovement is persistent. Investors under the market with asymmetric trading restrictions (ATR) tend to sell stocks early in the market and buy them near the end of the market. This correlated trading behavior contributes to the specific comovement in stock returns, especially the overnight return. Our findings remain solid even after controlling for more stock attributes and changing the proxies for return comovement and investor trading behavior. We also document a weakening (reinforcing) effect of the short-selling mechanism (disposition effect) on the ATR-induced return comovement. Our results provide a deeper understanding of investors’ trading behavior under ultra-short-term trading restrictions and the source of return comovement in the literature.

Recent studies document that cryptocurrencies offer an alternative store of value, medium of exchange and can be used to hedge against currency and price fluctuations. However, the frequent collapse of the crypto-market undermines its safe-haven characteristics, as investors’ fear and anxiety could intensify market volatility and trigger a financial crisis. Motivated by the current global vicissitudes, this study examines the impact of uncertainty and sentiment factors on price behaviour of cryptocurrencies. To estimate our model, we used daily, low, high and closing price data for major crypto projects, from January 2018 to January 2023. We show that economic and political uncertainty factors significantly drive crypto prices. Furthermore, the interaction between sentiment dynamics as expressed by investors on different social platforms has a significant adverse effect on the returns of the cryptocurrency market, and the impact is more pronounced for tokens within the same ecosystem. Using the asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS model and TVP-VAR, we also demonstrate the existence of a significant contagion among tokens within the same ecosystem when bad (or good) news occurs. Considering the massive unprotected losses incurred by crypto investors during crises, our results provide important insights into how portfolio managers can effectively design investment strategies.

We present the first empirical study of the impact of corporate green bond issuance announcements on issuer credit risk, as measured by their CDS spreads. We use a broad international sample of 1,048 green bonds issued between 2013 and 2022 by 200 entities from 26 countries. Our analysis reveals a significant, though not uniform, reaction in the CDSs. The sector of activity emerges as a critical determinant, particularly with respect to environmental exposure. While sectors highly exposed to environmental risk exhibit a reduction in issuer credit risk, all others, especially financial entities, react in the opposite direction. Our study highlights that the impact on credit risk is influenced by several other factors, including the issuer’s overall ESG score, its E score, and various country-level metrics such as development level, environmental performance and political rights. We also identify other factors that affect credit risk, such as green bond ratings and operating cash flow.

We investigate the relationship between political affinity and foreign direct investment (FDI) from the perspective of bilateral relations extending to multilateralism. The bilateral analysis shows that a host country can attract more FDI from a home country with which it has high political affinity. Furthermore, we shed new light on the role of multilateralism and find that multilateral diplomacy helps mitigate the effect of bilateral political affinity on FDI through dialog and consultation based on common interests. Finally, we show that a host country’s institutional quality moderates the relationship between political affinity and FDI. Our analysis highlights the importance of multilateralism in the era of political polarization and deglobalization, which threaten the development of international investment.