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Pricing of green bonds: Greenium dynamics and the role of retail investors 绿色债券的定价:Greenium动态和散户投资者的作用
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102211
Allegra Pietsch , Dilyara Salakhova
The green bond market has experienced rapid growth in recent years, driven by increasing global awareness of climate change. However, the existence, magnitude and driving forces behind the “greenium” in the secondary market – a price premium associated with green bonds – remain subject to debate. This study investigates the evolution of the greenium in the euro area from 2016 to 2023, encompassing a period of significant macroeconomic shifts, including the COVID-19 pandemic, energy crisis, and the subsequent period of heightened inflation and monetary tightening. Our analysis applies a k-prototypes matching algorithm to construct a closely matched panel of European green and conventional bonds and documents a novel finding that retail investors’ demand for green bonds partly drives the greenium. Sensitivity of retail investors’ financial conditions to the macroeconomic situation and particularly tighter monetary policy may explain investors’ appetite for green bonds and thus the greenium time dynamics. Finally, we confirm investors’ preferences for green bonds with higher credibility of both bonds and bond issuers.
近年来,由于全球对气候变化的意识日益增强,绿色债券市场经历了快速增长。然而,二级市场中“绿价”(与绿色债券相关的溢价)的存在、规模及其背后的驱动力仍存在争议。本研究调查了2016年至2023年欧元区的greenium演变,其中包括一段重大宏观经济转变时期,包括COVID-19大流行、能源危机,以及随后的通胀加剧和货币紧缩时期。我们的分析采用k-原型匹配算法构建了一个欧洲绿色债券和传统债券的紧密匹配面板,并记录了一个新颖的发现,即散户投资者对绿色债券的需求在一定程度上推动了绿色债券。散户投资者的财务状况对宏观经济形势的敏感性,特别是紧缩的货币政策,可以解释投资者对绿色债券的兴趣,从而解释绿期动态。最后,我们证实了投资者对绿色债券的偏好,债券和债券发行人的信誉都较高。
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引用次数: 0
Anticipated psychological spreads: Cryptocurrencies’ hidden short-term monitors and implications for price forecasting 预期的心理价差:加密货币隐藏的短期监控和对价格预测的影响
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102224
Gilles Brice M’bakob, Jules Mandeng ma Ntamack, Georges Kriyoss Mfouapon
Behavioral finance applications to cryptocurrency markets often neglect investor psychology surrounding support and resistance levels. This study introduces the anticipated psychological spread model (APSM), which formalizes chartist investors’ reactions to psychological price thresholds through loss aversion. Two behavioral indicators are defined: buyers’ anticipated psychological spread (BAPS), representing the perceived profit margin near resistance levels, and sellers’ anticipated psychological spread (SAPS), representing the anticipated profit margin near support levels. To examine the short-term price impact of these indicators, the study applies panel quantile regression to 32 cryptocurrencies from January 1, 2020, to January 31, 2024. An autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX)-based generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) framework is further employed to test robustness and evaluate the forecasting accuracy of the APSM. The results show that BAPS exerts a negative influence on prices, particularly during bear markets, while SAPS has a positive effect, especially in bull markets. Behavioral asymmetry analysis reveals buyer dominance over sellers throughout the study period. The APSM substantially improves short-term forecasting accuracy compared with classical ARIMAX–GARCH models. These findings indicate that BAPS and SAPS are valuable components for algorithmic trading strategies based on autoregressive models.
行为金融学在加密货币市场的应用往往忽视了投资者围绕支撑位和阻力位的心理。本研究引入了预期心理价差模型(APSM),该模型通过损失厌恶来形式化图表投资者对心理价格阈值的反应。定义了两个行为指标:买方预期心理价差(BAPS),代表阻力位附近的感知利润率;卖方预期心理价差(SAPS),代表支撑位附近的预期利润率。为了检验这些指标的短期价格影响,该研究对2020年1月1日至2024年1月31日期间的32种加密货币进行了面板分位数回归。采用基于自回归外生变量积分移动平均(ARIMAX)的广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)框架检验了APSM的稳健性和预测精度。结果表明,BAPS对价格具有负向影响,特别是在熊市中,而SAPS对价格具有正向影响,特别是在牛市中。行为不对称分析揭示了买方在整个研究期间对卖方的支配地位。与经典ARIMAX-GARCH模型相比,APSM显著提高了短期预报精度。这些发现表明,BAPS和SAPS是基于自回归模型的算法交易策略的有价值的组成部分。
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引用次数: 0
Macroprudential policy and corporate loans: evidence from the syndicated loan market 宏观审慎政策与企业贷款:来自银团贷款市场的证据
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102223
Christophe J. Godlewski , Małgorzata Olszak
We examine how macroprudential policy influences the structure of syndicated corporate loan contracts. Using a dataset of 4,853 European syndicated loans matched with detailed macroprudential policy indicators across nineteen EU countries, we study the impact of regulatory stance on loan amount, maturity, collateral and covenant use. Stricter macroprudential policy is associated with larger loans and a higher probability of collateralization, while macroprudential loosening reduces loan size. These adjustments occur along the intensive margin rather than through outright credit rationing and are concentrated among medium-sized loans and long-maturity facilities. We also show that borrower and lender characteristics mediate the response: larger, more leveraged firms and well-capitalized arranging banks are the primary drivers of the increase in loan size and collateral use. Our findings reveal a novel micro-level transmission channel of macroprudential policy and indicate that regulatory tightening reallocates credit toward safer contracts rather than suppressing overall lending.
我们研究宏观审慎政策如何影响银团企业贷款合同的结构。我们使用与19个欧盟国家的详细宏观审慎政策指标相匹配的4,853个欧洲银团贷款数据集,研究了监管立场对贷款金额、期限、抵押品和契约使用的影响。严格的宏观审慎政策与更大的贷款和更高的抵押可能性相关,而宏观审慎政策的放松则降低了贷款规模。这些调整是沿着密集的保证金进行的,而不是通过直接的信贷配给,并集中在中型贷款和长期贷款中。我们还表明,借款人和贷款人的特征调解了这一反应:规模更大、杠杆率更高的公司和资本充足的安排银行是贷款规模和抵押品使用增加的主要驱动因素。我们的研究结果揭示了宏观审慎政策的一个新的微观层面传导渠道,并表明监管收紧将信贷重新分配给更安全的合同,而不是抑制总体贷款。
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引用次数: 0
Spillover effects of global fund flows 全球资金流动的溢出效应
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102209
Yang Zhang , Huanhuan Zheng
We apply a factor model to estimate the spillover effects of global fund flows across international equity and bond markets. We document robust evidence of global and regional spillovers of equity and bond flows in the transmission of external shocks, especially to emerging markets (EMs) during episodes of financial crises and capital stops. Macroprudential policies are effective in alleviating global and regional spillovers to EMs. However, we find no similar evidence for capital controls. Foreign and passive investors mitigate global and regional spillovers, but not sustainable investors whose scale may be too small to have any major impact. We observe bilateral spillovers between equity and bond markets within the same economy; however, their magnitudes are not comparable to those of global or regional spillovers.
我们运用因子模型来估计全球资金流动在国际股票和债券市场的溢出效应。我们发现了强有力的证据,证明股票和债券流动在外部冲击传导中具有全球和区域溢出效应,尤其是在金融危机和资本停止期间对新兴市场的溢出效应。宏观审慎政策在缓解全球和地区对新兴市场的溢出效应方面是有效的。然而,我们没有发现资本管制的类似证据。外国和被动投资者可以缓解全球和区域溢出效应,但不能缓解可持续投资者的影响,它们的规模可能太小,无法产生任何重大影响。我们观察到同一经济体内股票和债券市场之间的双边溢出效应;然而,它们的规模无法与全球或区域溢出效应相提并论。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of structural reforms on gross capital inflows in OECD countries 结构改革对经合组织国家总资本流入的影响
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102221
Christos Mavrogiannis , Athanasios Tagkalakis
Utilizing a narrative database on structural reforms in 25 OECD countries from 1985 to 2020, we investigate the effects of labor and product market reforms on gross capital inflows. By applying the local projection method and addressing reform endogeneity with the Augmented Inverse Probability Weighted estimator, we find that structural reforms have a positive medium-term effect on both direct and portfolio investment. In particular, reforms boost investment, especially in environments of high quality financial institutions and amid low public debt.
利用25个经合组织国家1985年至2020年结构性改革的叙事数据库,我们研究了劳动力和产品市场改革对总资本流入的影响。运用局部投影法,利用增广逆概率加权估计量求解改革内生性问题,我们发现结构性改革对直接投资和证券投资都有积极的中期影响。改革尤其能促进投资,特别是在拥有高质量金融机构和低公共债务的环境下。
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引用次数: 0
Revisiting central bank credibility: Results from a new survey 重新审视央行的可信度:一项新调查的结果
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102222
Joanna Mackiewicz-Łyziak , Tymoteusz Mętrak
Literature on economists’ perceptions of central bank credibility is limited, with Alan Blinder’s work remaining the seminal piece. In this study, we examine how views on various aspects of central bank credibility have evolved over the past two decades, since Blinder’s first survey on this topic. We present the results of the survey conducted in March and April 2024 among 319 experts in the fields of central banking and monetary economics. The questionnaire includes items from the original survey, as well as several new ones, particularly those related to the impact of unconventional monetary policy on credibility, credibility measurement, and central bank objectives. The results indicate that economists still perceive central bank credibility as considerably important for different aspects of central bank activities. In the study, respondents who were central bank practitioners considered credibility more important for monetary policymaking than did academics. Independence, a history of honesty, and transparency were identified as the most important attributes of central bank credibility, while unconventional monetary policies and large fiscal expansions were not considered threats to credibility. These results offer important implications for central banks aiming to formulate relevant policy guidelines.
关于经济学家对央行可信度看法的文献有限,艾伦•布林德(Alan Blinder)的研究仍是开创性的。在本研究中,我们考察了自布林德首次就这一主题进行调查以来,人们对央行可信度各个方面的看法在过去20年里是如何演变的。我们将介绍2024年3月和4月对中央银行和货币经济学领域的319名专家进行的调查结果。该问卷包括原始调查中的项目,以及几个新项目,特别是与非常规货币政策对可信度、可信度测量和央行目标的影响有关的项目。结果表明,经济学家仍然认为中央银行的信誉在中央银行活动的不同方面相当重要。在这项研究中,作为央行从业人员的受访者认为,在货币政策制定方面,可信度比学者更重要。独立性、诚信历史和透明度被认为是央行可信度最重要的特征,而非常规货币政策和大规模财政扩张不被视为对可信度的威胁。这些结果为旨在制定相关政策指导方针的央行提供了重要启示。
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引用次数: 0
Comparing conventional and unconventional monetary policy effects in the euro area and the United States 比较欧元区和美国传统和非常规货币政策的影响
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102203
Fernando Ballabriga , Karen Davtyan
We use a consistent framework to compare the macroeconomic effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area (EA) and the United States (US). We find that monetary policy has a stronger effect on prices for the conventional policy period. We interpret this result by the lower level of the natural rate of interest during the unconventional policy period. At the same time, the effects of monetary policy on the unemployment rate and financial variables are more comparable between the conventional and the unconventional policy periods. We also find that the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy in terms of its target impact is lower in the EA than in the US, a result we attribute to differences in central bank institutional design.
我们使用一致的框架来比较欧元区(EA)和美国(US)传统和非常规货币政策的宏观经济影响。我们发现,在常规政策时期,货币政策对价格的影响更大。我们用非常规政策期间自然利率水平较低来解释这一结果。同时,货币政策对失业率和金融变量的影响在常规和非常规政策时期之间更具可比性。我们还发现,就其目标影响而言,非常规货币政策在欧洲的有效性低于美国,我们将这一结果归因于央行制度设计的差异。
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引用次数: 0
Accounting vs technical information: what matters more for stock return predictability? 会计与技术信息:哪个对股票收益的可预测性更重要?
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102207
Nusret Cakici , Adam Zaremba
We employ machine learning models to determine what matters more for stock return predictability: technical data or accounting information. Technical data holds an advantage—it consistently yields more accurate forecasts and higher portfolio returns. This superiority is not limited to the U.S. market but extends to major developed markets worldwide, at times showing even stronger effects. Furthermore, it remains remarkably robust across firm sizes and time periods. However, its edge is most pronounced at short horizons and comes at the cost of higher turnover. Accounting signals, while weaker overall, perform better over longer horizons and support lower-cost implementation. Finally, technical strategies excel in volatile, hard-to-value contexts, whereas accounting-based models fare better when valuation uncertainty is low.
我们使用机器学习模型来确定什么对股票回报的可预测性更重要:技术数据还是会计信息。技术数据有一个优势——它总是能产生更准确的预测和更高的投资组合回报。这种优势不仅限于美国市场,而且延伸到世界主要发达市场,有时甚至表现出更强的效果。此外,它在公司规模和时间段内仍然非常强劲。然而,它的优势在短期内最为明显,并以更高的流动率为代价。会计信号虽然总体上较弱,但在较长时间内表现更好,并支持较低成本的实施。最后,技术策略在不稳定、难以估值的环境中表现出色,而基于会计的模型在估值不确定性较低时表现更好。
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引用次数: 0
Directors with foreign experience and corporate cash holdings 具有海外经验和公司现金持有量的董事
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102208
Xinyu Yu , Ping Wang
This study examines the impact of directors with foreign experience (FE directors) on corporate cash holdings. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms, we find that directors with the experience of working or studying abroad have a positive and significant impact on corporate cash decisions, supporting the precautionary motive. The result is valid across a set of robustness tests and several endogeneity checks. Moreover, we find that the association between FE directors and cash holdings is more pronounced in firms with greater financial constraints and investment opportunities. The mediation analysis further identifies two potential channels through which FE directors increase cash holdings, that is, facilitating foreign operations and promoting risky innovation. We finally perform a series of additional analyses to further validate our findings. Overall, our study reveals that it is the resource-providing role that such directors play to shape cash policy, which sheds new light on the value of international human capital for firms in emerging markets.
本研究探讨具有海外经验的董事(FE董事)对公司现金持有量的影响。以中国上市公司为样本,我们发现具有海外工作或留学经历的董事对公司现金决策有显著的正向影响,这支持了预防性动机。结果是有效的跨一组鲁棒性测试和几个内生性检查。此外,我们发现,在财务约束和投资机会较大的公司中,财务总监与现金持有量之间的关联更为明显。中介分析进一步确定了FE董事增加现金持有量的两个潜在渠道,即促进国外业务和促进风险创新。最后,我们执行了一系列附加分析来进一步验证我们的发现。总体而言,我们的研究表明,这些董事在制定现金政策方面发挥的是资源提供作用,这为新兴市场企业的国际人力资本价值提供了新的视角。
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引用次数: 0
Bearish bets and the press: On the relation between short interest and media tone 看跌押注与媒体:论空头兴趣与媒体语气的关系
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102205
Heiko Jacobs , Alexander Lauber , Sebastian Müller
We analyze the extent to which proxies for short interest at the firm level influence the tone of media reporting for the cross-section of firms. The examination of the German stock market shows that there is a significantly negative relation. Nevertheless, this relation becomes often, though not always, insignificant after thoroughly controlling for relevant company characteristics. Past performance as well as measures of differences of opinion and information uncertainty prove to be particularly important for tonality. These findings are similar for domestic and foreign reporting. With the exception of salience shocks, these results are also obtained for both public and non-public short interest. Additional evidence results from article characteristics and the aggregated time series, among others. On a broader level, the results contribute to the discussion about drivers of media reporting in financial markets.
我们分析了公司层面的空头利益代理在多大程度上影响了公司横截面媒体报道的语气。对德国股市的检验表明,两者之间存在显著的负相关关系。然而,在彻底控制了相关的公司特征之后,这种关系往往(尽管并非总是)变得微不足道。过去的表现以及对意见分歧和信息不确定性的衡量被证明对调性特别重要。这些发现在国内外的报道中是相似的。除显著性冲击外,这些结果同样适用于公开和非公开的空头权益。其他证据来自文章特征和汇总时间序列等。在更广泛的层面上,研究结果有助于讨论金融市场中媒体报道的驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money
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