Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money最新文献

英文中文

Energy market deregulation: A new perspective on dividend smoothing 能源市场放松管制：股利平滑的新视角

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102260

Faruk Balli , Hatice Ozer Balli , Indrit Hoxha , Hannah Nguyen , Tam Hoang Nhat Dang

This paper investigates how U.S. electricity and gas utility firms adapted their dividend policies in response to deregulation of the energy sector, with a focus on understanding the internal financial mechanisms that support or constrain dividend smoothing. Using Lintner’s (1956) speed of adjustment model and a variance decomposition framework, we provide new evidence that deregulation significantly reduced dividend smoothing among utility firms, unlike their counterparts in the broader energy sector or non-energy industries. Specifically, we find that after deregulation, utility firms relied more heavily on debt financing and curtailed investment when faced with an income shock but also reflected that shock in the dividends more than before deregulation. Our empirical analysis draws on firm-level data from 1969 to 2021 and compares behaviour before and after deregulation across multiple firm categories, including a matched sample of non-utility firms. We show that deregulation made it harder for firms to maintaining the same level of dividend smoothing. These findings give insights on the importance of regulatory context in corporate finance research, and how market liberalization can impact not only competition and pricing for the affected sectors, but also the strategies firms use to balance investor expectations and operational needs.

本文研究了美国电力和天然气公用事业公司如何调整其股息政策以应对能源部门的放松管制，重点是了解支持或限制股息平滑的内部金融机制。利用Lintner（1956）的调整速度模型和方差分解框架，我们提供了新的证据，证明放松管制显著降低了公用事业公司之间的股息平滑，这与更广泛的能源部门或非能源行业的对手不同。具体而言，我们发现在放松管制后，公用事业公司在面临收入冲击时更依赖债务融资和减少投资，但也比放松管制前更多地反映了股息的冲击。我们的实证分析利用了1969年至2021年的公司层面数据，并比较了多种公司类别在放松管制之前和之后的行为，包括非公用事业公司的匹配样本。我们表明，放松管制使公司更难维持相同水平的股息平滑。这些发现对企业融资研究中监管背景的重要性以及市场自由化如何不仅影响受影响部门的竞争和定价，而且影响公司用于平衡投资者期望和运营需求的策略提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

Controlling shareholders Abroad: How overseas residency rights influence the costs of corporate Leverage? 海外控股股东：海外居留权如何影响企业杠杆成本？

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102262

Qian Li , Shihao Wang , Victor Song

This study examines how controlling shareholders’ overseas residency rights influence the costs of high leverage in China’s A-share market from 2007 to 2021. We find that privately owned firms with controllers holding overseas residency rights incur significantly higher costs of high leverage. The results are robust to alternative specifications, including two-stage least squares, propensity score matching, and alternative measures of both high leverage and residency rights. Mechanism analyses show that overseas residency rights exacerbate stakeholder-driven pressures—particularly from customers, competitors, employees, and suppliers—facing highly leveraged firms. At the same time, this adverse effect is mitigated by formal institutional mechanisms, such as extradition treaties and strong investor protections in the controller’s country of residence, as well as by informal institutions, including corporate integrity culture and political connections. Finally, we show that overseas residency rights amplify the negative impact of high leverage on firms’ investment and profitability.

本研究考察2007 - 2021年中国a股市场控股股东海外居留权对高杠杆成本的影响。研究发现，控制人持有海外居留权的民营企业高杠杆成本显著增加。结果是稳健的替代规范，包括两阶段最小二乘法，倾向得分匹配，以及高杠杆和居住权的替代措施。机制分析表明，海外居留权加剧了利益相关者驱动的压力，尤其是来自客户、竞争对手、员工和供应商的压力。与此同时，正式体制机制，如引渡条约和控制人居住国强有力的投资者保护，以及非正式体制，包括公司诚信文化和政治关系，可以减轻这种不利影响。最后，我们发现海外居留权放大了高杠杆对企业投资和盈利能力的负面影响。

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引用次数: 0

Bank competition and corporate tax avoidance: the Chinese experience 银行竞争与企业避税：中国的经验

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102248

Yekun Xu , Jiayu Zhao , Ruohan Zhong , Qiang Zhang

We examine the effect of bank competition on non-financial firms’ tax avoidance in the context of China, where a new national policy on bank entry deregulation in 2009 increased bank competition. The findings suggest that corporate tax avoidance decreases after bank entry deregulation. This deterrence effect partially stems from banks’ increased information expectations and the greater availability of credit. Moreover, the restraining effect is more salient for non-financial firms subject to less bank monitoring, weaker external or internal monitoring, greater financial constraints, less access to credit, and high levels of internationalization. Overall, our findings shed new light on how bank competition shapes firms’ tax avoidance strategies.

我们以中国为背景，考察银行竞争对非金融企业避税的影响。2009年，中国出台了新的银行准入放松政策，加剧了银行竞争。研究结果表明，银行进入放松管制后，企业避税减少。这种威慑效应部分源于银行增加的信息预期和更大的信贷可用性。此外，对于银行监管较少、外部或内部监管较弱、财务约束较大、获得信贷机会较少、国际化程度较高的非金融企业，这种抑制作用更为显著。总的来说，我们的研究结果揭示了银行竞争如何影响公司的避税策略。

引用次数: 0

How are retail investors informed? A perspective from institutional trading intention exposure 如何通知散户投资者？机构交易意向敞口的视角

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102259

Xuchu Sun , Qing Zhang , Tangrong Li

It is increasingly recognized that retail trades may contain predictive information, but an open question remains: how are they informed? This paper explores a possible explanation through the lens of institutional trading intention exposure. Using tick-by-tick data from the Chinese market, we find that retail order imbalance positively predicts stock returns at the weekly horizon. Approximately 20% of this predictive power is attributable to institutional trading intentions exposed on the order book, suggesting that some retail investors may incorporate exposed institutional intentions into their own trading decisions. The information channel is particularly pronounced when institutional intentions are revealed through limit orders, among small retail traders, and in specific macro- and micro-level market environments. Overall, our findings highlight the critical role of institutional trading intention exposure in shaping the return predictability of retail investors, particularly in emerging market contexts.

越来越多的人认识到，零售交易可能包含预测性信息，但一个悬而未决的问题仍然存在：他们是如何获得信息的？本文从机构交易意向暴露的角度探讨了一种可能的解释。利用中国市场的逐点数据，我们发现零售订单不平衡正预测周范围内的股票收益。这种预测能力的大约20%可归因于订单簿上暴露的机构交易意图，这表明一些散户投资者可能会将暴露的机构意图纳入自己的交易决策中。当机构意图通过限价单、在小型零售交易者中以及在特定的宏观和微观层面的市场环境中被揭示时，信息渠道尤为明显。总体而言，我们的研究结果强调了机构交易意向敞口在塑造散户投资者回报可预测性方面的关键作用，特别是在新兴市场背景下。

引用次数: 0

Bitcoin bans & regulatory segmentation in digitally native asset markets 数字原生资产市场中的比特币禁令和监管细分

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102261

Henrik Seikku , Imtiaz Sifat

We examine whether regulatory barriers segment technologically integrated financial markets using Bitcoin bans across 19 countries (2013–2024). Unlike traditional markets where infrastructure creates natural frictions, Bitcoin operates on a global, permissionless network. Using proper maximum likelihood BEKK-GARCH and CCC-GARCH estimation, we find no significant differences in market integration between liberal and conservative regulatory regimes across four complementary tests. However, country-specific analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity: major markets (China, Russia) achieve partial segmentation while smaller markets show counter-intuitive increases in integration post-ban. Market size and development explain less than 10% of regulatory effectiveness variation. These findings challenge traditional segmentation theory, demonstrating that decentralized technology creates persistent cross-market linkages that transcend regulatory boundaries. The heterogeneous and often counterproductive regulatory outcomes suggest policymakers should prioritize international coordination over unilateral restrictions when addressing digitally native assets.

我们研究了监管障碍是否分割了19个国家（2013-2024年）使用比特币禁令的技术整合金融市场。与基础设施会产生自然摩擦的传统市场不同，比特币在一个全球的、无需许可的网络上运行。使用适当的最大似然BEKK-GARCH和cc - garch估计，我们发现在四个互补测试中，自由和保守监管制度之间的市场整合没有显著差异。然而，针对具体国家的分析揭示了巨大的异质性：主要市场（中国、俄罗斯）实现了部分细分，而较小的市场在禁令后的一体化方面却出现了与直觉相反的增长。市场规模和发展只能解释不到10%的监管有效性差异。这些发现挑战了传统的分割理论，表明去中心化技术创造了超越监管边界的持久的跨市场联系。不同且往往适得其反的监管结果表明，在处理数字原生资产时，政策制定者应优先考虑国际协调，而不是单方面限制。

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引用次数: 0

Machine learning, memory and efficiency in cryptocurrency markets 加密货币市场中的机器学习、内存和效率

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102210

Shuyue Li, Larisa Yarovaya, Tapas Mishra

This paper empirically examines whether machine learning (ML) methods can capture long memory in the cryptocurrency markets. We design two tests to evaluate seven widely used ML regression algorithms and sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) models to determine their ability to capture long-memory characteristics of financial data. Specifically, we assess their accuracy in estimating the fractional integration parameter

d

for both univariate and systemic memory. Additionally, we examine whether the predicted time series preserve the long-memory properties of the original cryptocurrency market data. Our findings reveal that most ML algorithms fail to handle long-memory series effectively, while models incorporating Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Attention-LSTM components exhibit superior performance. Whilst comparing models using Mean Squared Errors (MSE), we find that our tests identify models better for directional predictions. These results highlight the limitations of conventional ML mechanism for long-range dependence and position Seq2Seq models as a promising alternative for addressing the complex movements of cryptocurrency time series. Our approach can be readily extended, offering both academics and practitioners a systematic procedure for evaluating arbitrary ML models, thereby yielding insights not only into their generalization of performance but also into the interpretability of their capacity for long-term dependence.

本文实证研究了机器学习（ML）方法是否可以在加密货币市场中捕获长记忆。我们设计了两个测试来评估七种广泛使用的ML回归算法和序列到序列（Seq2Seq）模型，以确定它们捕捉金融数据长期记忆特征的能力。具体来说，我们评估了它们在估计单变量和系统记忆的分数积分参数d方面的准确性。此外，我们还研究了预测的时间序列是否保留了原始加密货币市场数据的长记忆特性。我们的研究结果表明，大多数ML算法不能有效地处理长记忆序列，而包含长短期记忆（LSTM）和注意力-LSTM组件的模型表现出优异的性能。在比较使用均方误差（MSE）的模型时，我们发现我们的测试更好地识别了定向预测的模型。这些结果突出了传统机器学习机制在长期依赖方面的局限性，并将Seq2Seq模型定位为解决加密货币时间序列复杂运动的有希望的替代方案。我们的方法可以很容易地扩展，为学术界和实践者提供一个评估任意ML模型的系统过程，从而不仅可以深入了解其性能的泛化，还可以深入了解其长期依赖能力的可解释性。

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引用次数: 0

Biodiversity risk and firms’ access to trade credit 生物多样性风险与企业获得贸易信贷的途径

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102226

Khadija S. Almaghrabi , Walid Ben-Amar , Ziyu Kong

This study examines the relationship between firm-level exposure to biodiversity risk and access to supplier financing. We find that firms’ access to trade credit decreases significantly with increased firm-level exposure to biodiversity risk. Mechanism test shows that reduced operating performance is the primary channel through which biodiversity risk affects access to trade credit. This effect is more pronounced among firms with low market power, those in industries with higher exposure to biodiversity risk, and those with weak corporate culture or low product innovation. Moreover, we find that firms highly exposed to biodiversity risk that receive less trade credit from suppliers tend to extend less trade credit to their customers. Given the growing attention to biodiversity risk, our findings offer important implications for both policymakers and corporate decision-makers seeking to understand and manage the broader financial and operating consequences of biodiversity risk.

本研究探讨了企业对生物多样性风险的暴露与获得供应商融资之间的关系。我们发现，随着企业对生物多样性风险暴露程度的增加，企业获得贸易信贷的机会显著减少。机制检验表明，经营绩效下降是生物多样性风险影响贸易信贷获取的主要渠道。这种效应在市场支配力较低的企业、生物多样性风险较高的企业、企业文化薄弱或产品创新能力较弱的企业中更为明显。此外，我们发现高度暴露于生物多样性风险的企业从供应商那里获得较少的贸易信贷，往往会向其客户提供较少的贸易信贷。鉴于对生物多样性风险的日益关注，我们的研究结果为决策者和企业决策者寻求理解和管理生物多样性风险的更广泛的财务和经营后果提供了重要的启示。

引用次数: 0

Terrorism, institutional environment, and corporate cash holdings 恐怖主义，制度环境，企业现金持有量

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102227

Solomon Wise Dodzidenu Adza , Adelaide Dak-Adzaklo , Patrick Bimpong , James Edudzi Kudoh , Cephas Simon Peter Dak-Adzaklo

Using a sample of firms from 35 countries from 2002 to 2019, we investigate the effect of terrorism on corporate cash holdings. We find a significant positive relationship between terrorism and corporate cash holdings. This effect is more pronounced for firms operating in countries with weaker institutional environments and less risk-oriented cultures. Further analysis suggests that increased informational opacity, high earnings and cash flow volatility, higher cost of debt, and lower payout ratio are plausible channels through which terrorism influences firms’ cash holdings. Finally, we show that higher cash holdings help mitigate the negative effects of terrorism on investment. This finding supports the precautionary savings theory, highlighting how firms maintain financial flexibility to enhance organizational resilience in the face of terrorism-related risks.

利用2002年至2019年来自35个国家的公司样本，我们调查了恐怖主义对企业现金持有量的影响。我们发现恐怖主义与企业现金持有量之间存在显著的正相关关系。对于在制度环境较弱和风险导向文化较少的国家经营的公司来说，这种影响更为明显。进一步的分析表明，增加的信息不透明度、高收益和现金流波动性、较高的债务成本和较低的派息率是恐怖主义影响公司现金持有量的合理渠道。最后，我们发现较高的现金持有量有助于缓解恐怖主义对投资的负面影响。这一发现支持了预防性储蓄理论，强调了企业如何在面对恐怖主义相关风险时保持财务灵活性以增强组织弹性。

引用次数: 0

Cross-market overnight time-series momentum 跨市场隔夜时间序列动量

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102239

Dezhong Xu , Bin Li , Tarlok Singh , Xiaoyue Chen , Jinze Li

We propose a new cross-market overnight momentum: the US stock market’s last half-hour return predicts the next day’s first half-hour stock returns in international markets. This predictability is statistically significant both in- and out-of-sample. The corresponding cross-market overnight time-series momentum (COTSM) strategy shows economic significance in international stock markets investments. The COTSM strategy remains profitable with the consideration of transaction costs, and the profitability is driven by some specific market characteristics. The COTSM is strong when international market spread is low, or information uncertainty is high.

我们提出了一种新的跨市场隔夜势头：美国股市最后半小时的回报预测了第二天国际市场第一个半小时的股票回报。这种可预测性在样本内和样本外都具有统计学意义。相应的跨市场隔夜时间序列动量（COTSM）策略在国际股票市场投资中具有经济意义。考虑到交易成本，COTSM策略仍然是盈利的，盈利能力是由一些特定的市场特征驱动的。当国际市场价差较低或信息不确定性较高时，COTSM强势。

引用次数: 0

Bank relationships and corporate exchange rate risk 银行关系和企业汇率风险

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102228

Qianyi Hao, Jiajia Liu, Zhe Yang

This study examines how bank relationships are related to corporate exchange rate risk, with a particular focus on equity relationships. The results show that bank relationships are negatively associated with corporate exchange rate risk, and that bankers on corporate boards have a stronger risk-reducing effect than bank equity ownership. Mechanism analysis reveals that corporate governance significantly moderates this relationship: the risk-reducing effect is amplified when agency problems are severe and weakened when internal controls are strong. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that non-state-owned firms and those in less developed regions rely more heavily on bank relationships to manage exchange rate risk. This study implies that bank relationships play a key governance role in managing exchange rate risk, offering firms practical guidance for enhancing their practices.

本研究探讨银行关系如何与企业汇率风险相关，特别关注股权关系。结果表明，银行关系与公司汇率风险呈负相关，并且公司董事会银行家比银行股权具有更强的风险降低效果。机制分析表明，公司治理显著调节了这一关系：代理问题严重时风险降低效应放大，内部控制强时风险降低效应减弱。异质性分析表明，非国有企业和欠发达地区的企业更依赖银行关系来管理汇率风险。本研究表明，银行关系在管理汇率风险方面发挥着关键的治理作用，为企业加强其实践提供了实践指导。

引用次数: 0

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