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Political leaders’ absences and equity market returns: Evidence from a novel uncertainty in China 政治领导人缺席与股市回报:来自中国新不确定性的证据
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102247
Maoyong Cheng , Huiqin Duan , Liuchuang Li
We investigate how political uncertainty influences equity market performance by leveraging the temporary absences of municipal political leaders in China, which serve as plausibly exogenous variations in political uncertainty. We find that the absence of Secretaries of Municipal Party Committees (SMPCs) and Mayors is largely uncorrelated with local economic and social development indicators, supporting their exogeneity. Our results show that stock returns decline significantly following SMPC absences, particularly in the first month. Further analysis suggests that this effect does not stem from changes in cash flows, consistent with a discount rate channel. Cross-sectional analysis shows that the decline in stock returns is more pronounced among firms in economically advanced cities, with greater political or international exposure, and among non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs). Overall, our findings underscore the role of unexpected political disruptions in financial markets.
我们通过利用中国城市政治领导人的暂时缺席来研究政治不确定性如何影响股票市场表现,这可能是政治不确定性的外生变化。我们发现,市委书记和市长的缺位与当地经济和社会发展指标在很大程度上不相关,支持其外生性。我们的研究结果表明,在SMPC缺席后,股票收益显著下降,特别是在第一个月。进一步的分析表明,这种影响不是源于现金流量的变化,与贴现率渠道一致。横断面分析表明,在经济发达城市的企业(政治或国际风险较大)和非国有企业(non-国企)中,股票收益下降更为明显。总体而言,我们的研究结果强调了意外的政治干扰在金融市场中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Climate change news risk and advertising spending 气候变化新闻风险和广告支出
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102245
Olakunle Olaboopo , Evans O. Boamah
We examine the effect of climate change news risk on corporate advertising spending. Using a novel measure of media-driven climate risk matched to firm-level advertising data, we find a robust negative relationship between climate news risk and advertising spending. Mechanism tests show that financial constraints mediate this relationship. The effect is stronger for firms with low stock market liquidity and high cash-flow volatility. We also find that domestic firms reduce their advertising spending relative to their multinational counterparts, which aligns with the idea that international operations provide diversification and stronger cash flow benefits that enhance firms’ resilience to the effects of domestic climate risk shocks. The results remain consistent across different advertising measures, and after correcting for selection bias with a Heckman two-step method. We address endogeneity concerns through instrumental variable estimation. Our findings support the risk management hypothesis that firms proactively adjust their financial policies to mitigate the negative effects of rising climate risk exposure.
我们研究了气候变化新闻风险对企业广告支出的影响。通过将媒体驱动的气候风险与公司层面的广告数据相匹配,我们发现气候新闻风险与广告支出之间存在显著的负相关关系。机制测试表明,财政约束是这种关系的中介。对于股票市场流动性低、现金流波动率高的公司,这种效应更强。我们还发现,与跨国公司相比,国内公司减少了广告支出,这与国际运营提供多元化和更强的现金流效益,从而增强公司对国内气候风险冲击影响的抵御能力的观点一致。结果在不同的广告措施中保持一致,并且在用赫克曼两步法纠正了选择偏差之后。我们通过工具变量估计来解决内生性问题。我们的研究结果支持风险管理假设,即企业主动调整其财务政策以减轻气候风险暴露增加的负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Stock-bond return correlation: Understanding the changing behaviour 股票-债券收益相关性:了解变化中的行为
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102242
David G. McMillan
The stock and bond return correlation remains important given its central role in portfolio behaviour. Previous, primarily US, evidence indicates sign switching, which implies that bonds change between diversifying and hedging behaviour. This paper considers time-variation in the stock–bond correlation for the G7 markets, including the nature of its economic drivers. Using monthly data over a period spanning 1980 to 2023 evidence demonstrates that the correlation switches from positive to negative in the late 1990s for six of the seven markets (the switch for Japan occurs in the first half of the 1990s). A switch back to positive is observed towards the end of the sample for most markets but earlier for France and Italy. Evidence of time-variation within the correlation drivers is also noted. Nonetheless, results suggest that inflation and interest rates typically exhibit a positive effect on the correlation, consistent with previous work and theoretical underpinnings. That is, higher inflation and interest rates depress stock and bond prices due to higher discount rates and lower real cash flows, moving them in the same direction. Growth also largely imparts a positive effect on the correlation, but this contrasts with the prevailing view. This arises through portfolio considerations where higher growth leads to an increase in demand for all assets. Of importance for investors, the switch in correlation implies that a portfolio manager will need to alter asset weights to maintain a target value for returns or risk. A portfolio variance decomposition reveals that while the bond contribution remains broadly constant over the sample, that from stocks increases as the correlation contribution shifts from positive to negative. The results are of importance to investors and those engaged in modelling market behaviour.
鉴于股票和债券收益的相关性在投资组合行为中的核心作用,它仍然很重要。之前的证据(主要是美国的)表明了信号转换,这意味着债券在多样化和对冲行为之间变化。本文考虑了七国集团市场股票债券相关性的时间变化,包括其经济驱动因素的性质。使用1980年至2023年期间的月度数据,证据表明,在20世纪90年代末,七个市场中的六个市场的相关性从正转向负(日本的相关性发生在20世纪90年代上半叶)。在大多数市场的样本接近尾声时,可以观察到回归正值的情况,但法国和意大利的情况更早。还注意到相关驱动因素中时间变化的证据。尽管如此,结果表明,通货膨胀和利率通常对相关性表现出积极的影响,这与之前的工作和理论基础一致。也就是说,由于更高的贴现率和更低的实际现金流,更高的通胀和利率压低了股票和债券的价格,使它们向同一方向移动。经济增长也在很大程度上对相关性产生了积极影响,但这与主流观点形成了对比。这是通过投资组合考虑而产生的,其中高增长导致对所有资产的需求增加。对投资者来说,重要的是,相关性的转换意味着投资组合经理将需要改变资产权重,以维持回报或风险的目标值。投资组合方差分解表明,虽然债券的贡献在样本中大致保持不变,但随着相关贡献从正变为负,股票的贡献增加。研究结果对投资者和那些从事市场行为建模的人很重要。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of investor attention to the federal reserve on jumps in China’s stock market 投资者对美联储的关注对中国股市跃升的影响
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102243
Xiaojun Chu , Haigang Zhou
We study whether and how investor attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve transmits to China’s A-share market through stock-price jumps. Using Baidu search volumes for Fed-related terms as an attention proxy, we show that greater attention is associated with both a higher probability and a larger magnitude of jumps. These effects are not confined to FOMC announcement days; they also arise on non-announcement days, consistent with the continuous flow of Fed communications and expectation updating. The impact is stronger for negative jumps and among smaller, riskier firms where retail investors are most active. Robustness checks that control for domestic monetary policy attention, U.S. macroeconomic news and equity market conditions, alternative jump-identification methods, and pre-announcement attention measures yield similar conclusions. Taken together, the findings highlight investor attention as a behavioral channel of U.S. monetary policy spillovers and indicate that attention amplifies – rather than resolves – market uncertainty.
我们研究投资者对美联储的关注是否以及如何通过股价上涨传导到中国a股市场。使用百度对美联储相关术语的搜索量作为关注代理,我们表明,更多的关注与更高的概率和更大的幅度相关。这些影响并不局限于FOMC发布公告的日子;它们也出现在非公告日,与美联储持续不断的沟通和预期更新一致。对于负跳涨以及散户投资者最为活跃的规模较小、风险较高的公司而言,这种影响更大。鲁棒性检查控制了国内货币政策关注、美国宏观经济新闻和股票市场状况、替代跳跃识别方法和公告前关注措施,得出类似的结论。综上所述,这些发现强调了投资者关注是美国货币政策溢出效应的一个行为渠道,并表明关注放大了——而不是消除——市场的不确定性。
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引用次数: 0
The consequences of hypocrisy: how ESG greenwashing undermines green total factor productivity 虚伪的后果:ESG洗绿如何破坏绿色全要素生产率
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102241
Qi Gong , Zhaoyang Kong , Liang Li , Xiucheng Dong , Yang Li
Hypocrisy in environmental, social and governance (ESG) has become a growing concern in global capital markets. In the context of sustainable development, we examine whether and how corporate ESG greenwashing affects green total factor productivity (GTFP), a comprehensive indicator that captures both economic efficiency and environmental performance. Based on panel data comprising 7,755 firm-year observations from 705 Chinese listed firms over the period 2012–2022, we find that ESG greenwashing significantly undermines GTFP. Mechanism analysis reveals that this effect operates through tightened financing constraints and increased inefficient investment. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the negative impact of ESG greenwashing on GTFP is particularly pronounced among cross-listed firms, highlighting the sustainability risks associated with symbolic ESG practices under multiple regulatory environments and underscoring the need for internationally harmonized ESG regulatory frameworks. Moreover, the detrimental effect is more severe among non-state-owned enterprises and firms with a higher proportion of negative media coverage. By linking ESG greenwashing with green productivity, this study contributes to the literature at the intersection of sustainability, corporate governance, and international securities markets. It offers practical implications for global investors, regulators, and firms, particularly in emerging markets, aiming to strengthen ESG accountability and reduce the sustainable development risks associated with superficial compliance.
环境、社会和治理(ESG)中的虚伪已成为全球资本市场日益关注的问题。在可持续发展的背景下,我们研究了企业ESG“漂绿”是否以及如何影响绿色全要素生产率(GTFP),这是一个既能反映经济效率又能反映环境绩效的综合指标。基于对705家中国上市公司2012-2022年期间7755家公司年度观察的面板数据,我们发现ESG洗绿显著破坏了GTFP。机制分析表明,这种效应是通过融资约束收紧和低效投资增加来实现的。异质性分析表明,在交叉上市公司中,ESG洗绿对GTFP的负面影响尤为明显,这凸显了在多种监管环境下,象征性ESG实践所带来的可持续性风险,并强调了建立国际统一的ESG监管框架的必要性。此外,这种不利影响在非国有企业和媒体负面报道比例较高的企业中更为严重。通过将ESG洗绿与绿色生产力联系起来,本研究为可持续发展、公司治理和国际证券市场交叉领域的文献做出了贡献。它为全球投资者、监管机构和公司,特别是新兴市场的投资者、监管机构和公司提供了实际意义,旨在加强ESG问责制,减少与表面合规相关的可持续发展风险。
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引用次数: 0
Does biodiversity matter for firm value? 生物多样性对公司价值有影响吗?
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102240
Simona Cosma , Stefano Cosma , Daniela Pennetta , Giuseppe Rimo
This paper investigates the relationship between firms’ impact on biodiversity and its firm value and the economic and financial mechanisms underlying this link, filling a gap concerning the financial materiality of biodiversity loss. By analysing a global panel of 1,848 publicly listed companies across 49 countries from 2018 to 2022, this study highlights how the Corporate Biodiversity Footprint (CBF) influences not only firms’ market valuations (Tobin’s Q, Market-to-Book) but also their operating profitability as measured by Return on Assets (ROA). At the same time, the CBF affects firms’ cash generation capacity both decreasing the level and increasing the volatility of operating cash flows. Further heterogeneity analyses reveal that the effect of CBF on firm value is particularly strong for large firms, firms producing tangible goods, firms headquartered in megadiverse countries, and countries with a high level of biodiversity conservation. The erosion of ROA is especially evident in countries already severely affected by biodiversity loss. The results have important implications for investors, banks, corporate managers, and policymakers to improve risk pricing, forward-looking corporate governance, and realign corporate strategies and capital allocation with global biodiversity targets.
本文研究了企业对生物多样性的影响与其企业价值之间的关系,以及这一联系背后的经济和金融机制,填补了生物多样性损失的金融重要性方面的空白。通过分析2018年至2022年49个国家的1848家上市公司的全球面板,本研究强调了企业生物多样性足迹(CBF)如何不仅影响公司的市场估值(托宾Q,市净率),还影响其以资产回报率(ROA)衡量的营业盈利能力。同时,企业现金流对企业现金产生能力的影响既降低了经营性现金流的水平,又增加了经营性现金流的波动性。进一步的异质性分析表明,CBF对企业价值的影响在大型企业、生产有形商品的企业、总部位于生物多样性大国的企业和生物多样性保护水平较高的国家尤为强烈。在已经受到生物多样性丧失严重影响的国家,总资产面积的侵蚀尤为明显。研究结果对投资者、银行、公司管理者和政策制定者改善风险定价、前瞻性公司治理以及根据全球生物多样性目标调整公司战略和资本配置具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Cross-market overnight time-series momentum 跨市场隔夜时间序列动量
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102239
Dezhong Xu , Bin Li , Tarlok Singh , Xiaoyue Chen , Jinze Li
We propose a new cross-market overnight momentum: the US stock market’s last half-hour return predicts the next day’s first half-hour stock returns in international markets. This predictability is statistically significant both in- and out-of-sample. The corresponding cross-market overnight time-series momentum (COTSM) strategy shows economic significance in international stock markets investments. The COTSM strategy remains profitable with the consideration of transaction costs, and the profitability is driven by some specific market characteristics. The COTSM is strong when international market spread is low, or information uncertainty is high.
我们提出了一种新的跨市场隔夜势头:美国股市最后半小时的回报预测了第二天国际市场第一个半小时的股票回报。这种可预测性在样本内和样本外都具有统计学意义。相应的跨市场隔夜时间序列动量(COTSM)策略在国际股票市场投资中具有经济意义。考虑到交易成本,COTSM策略仍然是盈利的,盈利能力是由一些特定的市场特征驱动的。当国际市场价差较低或信息不确定性较高时,COTSM强势。
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引用次数: 0
Social capital and FinTech lending: international evidence 社会资本和金融科技借贷:国际证据
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102236
Tony Cavoli , Isma Khan , G.M. Wali Ullah
FinTech credit has grown significantly in recent years and can have important economic and financial outcomes. Social capital can provide societal benefits which impact FinTech lending. There are three factors that influence this connection: the inequality of income, the prevalence of digital technology, and the quality of institutions. This paper examines the relationship between social capital and FinTech lending for a panel of 56 countries for 2013–19, focusing on these important conditioning factors. We find that that greater social capital results in higher levels of FinTech lending. These results are robust to different model specifications, after correcting for possible endogeneity issues, and over different indicators of social capital. This effect is more pronounced for countries with better institutions, higher internet penetration, and lower income inequality – highlighting the need for authorities to consider their impact when formulating policy.
金融科技信贷近年来显著增长,并可能产生重要的经济和金融成果。社会资本可以提供影响金融科技贷款的社会效益。影响这种联系的因素有三个:收入不平等、数字技术的普及和制度质量。本文以2013 - 2019年56个国家为样本,考察了社会资本与金融科技贷款之间的关系,重点关注了这些重要的制约因素。我们发现,更大的社会资本导致更高水平的金融科技贷款。在校正了可能的内生性问题之后,这些结果对不同的模型规格以及不同的社会资本指标都具有鲁棒性。这种影响在制度较好、互联网普及率较高、收入不平等程度较低的国家更为明显——这凸显了当局在制定政策时考虑其影响的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Detecting cross-firm momentum effects via shared analyst coverage: The role of leaders 通过共享分析师覆盖率检测跨公司动量效应:领导者的角色
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102237
Yang-Rong Mao , Huai-Long Shi , Huayi Chen , Yu-Lei Wan
Cross-firm momentum effects via shared analyst coverage are well-documented in developed markets, but their robustness remains unclear in emerging markets, where information diffusion is asymmetric and analyst coverage is highly concentrated. Our work revisits this effect in an environment of extreme informational frictions — the Chinese market. We reconstruct the information transmission channel within the analyst coverage network by introducing a novel weighting scheme based on strength centrality (SC). This measure identifies influential leader firms that command disproportionate attention from both analysts and the market. Our results demonstrate that SC-weighted connected-firm returns robustly predict cross-sectional stock returns, yielding significant and persistent profits even under a rigorous stock filter. This performance cannot be subsumed by strategies based on alternative weighting schemes or by explanations such as intra-industry cross-firm momentum and information discreteness. Further analysis reveals that the superiority of the SC-based approach stems from its ability to effectively identify firms with stronger cross-period fundamental linkages. In addition, high-SC stocks are characterized by higher investor attention, more efficient information processing, lower arbitrage costs, and greater international exposures. With this evidence, we further confirm a directional spillover: cross-firm momentum effects flow exclusively from these high-SC leaders to low-SC laggards, and there is no reverse spillover. Our findings suggest that cross-firm momentum may be systematically underestimated in many international markets due to methodological limitations rather than economic irrelevance. The SC-based framework therefore offers a portable tool for global investors and researchers operating in environments with asymmetric information.
通过共享分析师报道的跨公司动量效应在发达市场中得到充分证明,但在信息扩散不对称且分析师报道高度集中的新兴市场中,其稳健性尚不清楚。我们的研究在一个极度信息摩擦的环境中——中国市场——重新审视了这种效应。通过引入一种新的基于强度中心性(SC)的加权方案,重构了分析师覆盖网络中的信息传输通道。这一指标确定了那些获得分析师和市场不成比例关注的有影响力的领先公司。我们的研究结果表明,sc加权关联公司回报稳健地预测横截面股票回报,即使在严格的股票过滤下也能产生显著和持续的利润。这种表现不能被基于替代加权方案的策略或行业内跨公司动量和信息离散性等解释所包含。进一步的分析表明,基于sc的方法的优势源于它能够有效地识别具有更强的跨时期基本联系的公司。此外,高sc股票的特点是投资者关注度更高,信息处理效率更高,套利成本更低,国际敞口更大。有了这一证据,我们进一步证实了一种定向溢出:跨公司的动量效应只从这些高sc的领导者流向低sc的落后者,而不存在反向溢出。我们的研究结果表明,在许多国际市场中,由于方法上的限制,而不是经济上的无关性,跨公司动量可能被系统性地低估了。因此,基于sc的框架为在信息不对称环境中操作的全球投资者和研究人员提供了一种便携式工具。
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引用次数: 0
Do FinTech Acquisitions Affect Banks' ESG Performance? Evidence from Global M&As 金融科技收购是否影响银行的ESG绩效?来自全球并购的证据
IF 6.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102229
Antonella Francesca Cicchiello , Cristian Foroni , Stefano Monferrà , Giuseppe Torluccio
This study investigates how mergers and acquisitions (M&A) involving FinTech companies influence the Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance of acquiring banks. Using a global sample of 105 M&A deals completed by banks worldwide between 2009 and 2023, our findings indicate that FinTech acquisitions tend to enhance banks’ ESG performance. However, this effect is not immediately observable, manifesting only in the fifth year post-acquisition. To refine the analysis, we match banks that engaged in FinTech acquisitions with similar banks that did not, controlling for pre-acquisition characteristics. This approach reveals a positive and significant effect on environmental (E) and overall ESG scores starting from the third year, with social (S) scores showing significant improvement as early as the first year post-acquisition.
These findings contribute to the understanding of how FinTech M&As shape the ESG performance of traditional banks. The results also provide valuable insights for bank managers, policymakers, and financial regulators, emphasizing the role of FinTech acquisitions in advancing sustainability within the banking sector.
本研究探讨了涉及金融科技公司的并购如何影响收购银行的环境、社会和治理(ESG)绩效。通过对2009年至2023年间全球银行完成的105宗并购交易的全球样本分析,我们的研究结果表明,金融科技收购往往会提高银行的ESG绩效。然而,这种效果并不是立即可见的,只有在收购后的第五年才会显现出来。为了完善分析,我们将从事金融科技收购的银行与没有从事金融科技收购的类似银行进行了匹配,并控制了收购前的特征。这种方法显示,从第三年开始,对环境(E)和整体ESG得分有积极而显著的影响,社交(S)得分早在习得后的第一年就显示出显著的改善。这些发现有助于理解金融科技并购如何影响传统银行的ESG绩效。研究结果还为银行经理、政策制定者和金融监管机构提供了有价值的见解,强调了金融科技收购在促进银行业可持续性方面的作用。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money
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