Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money最新文献

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Anticipated psychological spreads: Cryptocurrencies’ hidden short-term monitors and implications for price forecasting 预期的心理价差：加密货币隐藏的短期监控和对价格预测的影响

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102224

Gilles Brice M’bakob, Jules Mandeng ma Ntamack, Georges Kriyoss Mfouapon

Behavioral finance applications to cryptocurrency markets often neglect investor psychology surrounding support and resistance levels. This study introduces the anticipated psychological spread model (APSM), which formalizes chartist investors’ reactions to psychological price thresholds through loss aversion. Two behavioral indicators are defined: buyers’ anticipated psychological spread (BAPS), representing the perceived profit margin near resistance levels, and sellers’ anticipated psychological spread (SAPS), representing the anticipated profit margin near support levels. To examine the short-term price impact of these indicators, the study applies panel quantile regression to 32 cryptocurrencies from January 1, 2020, to January 31, 2024. An autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX)-based generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) framework is further employed to test robustness and evaluate the forecasting accuracy of the APSM. The results show that BAPS exerts a negative influence on prices, particularly during bear markets, while SAPS has a positive effect, especially in bull markets. Behavioral asymmetry analysis reveals buyer dominance over sellers throughout the study period. The APSM substantially improves short-term forecasting accuracy compared with classical ARIMAX–GARCH models. These findings indicate that BAPS and SAPS are valuable components for algorithmic trading strategies based on autoregressive models.

行为金融学在加密货币市场的应用往往忽视了投资者围绕支撑位和阻力位的心理。本研究引入了预期心理价差模型（APSM），该模型通过损失厌恶来形式化图表投资者对心理价格阈值的反应。定义了两个行为指标：买方预期心理价差（BAPS），代表阻力位附近的感知利润率；卖方预期心理价差（SAPS），代表支撑位附近的预期利润率。为了检验这些指标的短期价格影响，该研究对2020年1月1日至2024年1月31日期间的32种加密货币进行了面板分位数回归。采用基于自回归外生变量积分移动平均（ARIMAX）的广义自回归条件异方差（GARCH）框架检验了APSM的稳健性和预测精度。结果表明，BAPS对价格具有负向影响，特别是在熊市中，而SAPS对价格具有正向影响，特别是在牛市中。行为不对称分析揭示了买方在整个研究期间对卖方的支配地位。与经典ARIMAX-GARCH模型相比，APSM显著提高了短期预报精度。这些发现表明，BAPS和SAPS是基于自回归模型的算法交易策略的有价值的组成部分。

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引用次数: 0

Macroprudential policy and corporate loans: evidence from the syndicated loan market 宏观审慎政策与企业贷款：来自银团贷款市场的证据

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102223

Christophe J. Godlewski , Małgorzata Olszak

We examine how macroprudential policy influences the structure of syndicated corporate loan contracts. Using a dataset of 4,853 European syndicated loans matched with detailed macroprudential policy indicators across nineteen EU countries, we study the impact of regulatory stance on loan amount, maturity, collateral and covenant use. Stricter macroprudential policy is associated with larger loans and a higher probability of collateralization, while macroprudential loosening reduces loan size. These adjustments occur along the intensive margin rather than through outright credit rationing and are concentrated among medium-sized loans and long-maturity facilities. We also show that borrower and lender characteristics mediate the response: larger, more leveraged firms and well-capitalized arranging banks are the primary drivers of the increase in loan size and collateral use. Our findings reveal a novel micro-level transmission channel of macroprudential policy and indicate that regulatory tightening reallocates credit toward safer contracts rather than suppressing overall lending.

我们研究宏观审慎政策如何影响银团企业贷款合同的结构。我们使用与19个欧盟国家的详细宏观审慎政策指标相匹配的4,853个欧洲银团贷款数据集，研究了监管立场对贷款金额、期限、抵押品和契约使用的影响。严格的宏观审慎政策与更大的贷款和更高的抵押可能性相关，而宏观审慎政策的放松则降低了贷款规模。这些调整是沿着密集的保证金进行的，而不是通过直接的信贷配给，并集中在中型贷款和长期贷款中。我们还表明，借款人和贷款人的特征调解了这一反应：规模更大、杠杆率更高的公司和资本充足的安排银行是贷款规模和抵押品使用增加的主要驱动因素。我们的研究结果揭示了宏观审慎政策的一个新的微观层面传导渠道，并表明监管收紧将信贷重新分配给更安全的合同，而不是抑制总体贷款。

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引用次数: 0

Directors with foreign experience and corporate cash holdings 具有海外经验和公司现金持有量的董事

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102208

Xinyu Yu , Ping Wang

This study examines the impact of directors with foreign experience (FE directors) on corporate cash holdings. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms, we find that directors with the experience of working or studying abroad have a positive and significant impact on corporate cash decisions, supporting the precautionary motive. The result is valid across a set of robustness tests and several endogeneity checks. Moreover, we find that the association between FE directors and cash holdings is more pronounced in firms with greater financial constraints and investment opportunities. The mediation analysis further identifies two potential channels through which FE directors increase cash holdings, that is, facilitating foreign operations and promoting risky innovation. We finally perform a series of additional analyses to further validate our findings. Overall, our study reveals that it is the resource-providing role that such directors play to shape cash policy, which sheds new light on the value of international human capital for firms in emerging markets.

本研究探讨具有海外经验的董事（FE董事）对公司现金持有量的影响。以中国上市公司为样本，我们发现具有海外工作或留学经历的董事对公司现金决策有显著的正向影响，这支持了预防性动机。结果是有效的跨一组鲁棒性测试和几个内生性检查。此外，我们发现，在财务约束和投资机会较大的公司中，财务总监与现金持有量之间的关联更为明显。中介分析进一步确定了FE董事增加现金持有量的两个潜在渠道，即促进国外业务和促进风险创新。最后，我们执行了一系列附加分析来进一步验证我们的发现。总体而言，我们的研究表明，这些董事在制定现金政策方面发挥的是资源提供作用，这为新兴市场企业的国际人力资本价值提供了新的视角。

引用次数: 0

Pricing of green bonds: Greenium dynamics and the role of retail investors 绿色债券的定价：Greenium动态和散户投资者的作用

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102211

Allegra Pietsch , Dilyara Salakhova

The green bond market has experienced rapid growth in recent years, driven by increasing global awareness of climate change. However, the existence, magnitude and driving forces behind the “greenium” in the secondary market – a price premium associated with green bonds – remain subject to debate. This study investigates the evolution of the greenium in the euro area from 2016 to 2023, encompassing a period of significant macroeconomic shifts, including the COVID-19 pandemic, energy crisis, and the subsequent period of heightened inflation and monetary tightening. Our analysis applies a k-prototypes matching algorithm to construct a closely matched panel of European green and conventional bonds and documents a novel finding that retail investors’ demand for green bonds partly drives the greenium. Sensitivity of retail investors’ financial conditions to the macroeconomic situation and particularly tighter monetary policy may explain investors’ appetite for green bonds and thus the greenium time dynamics. Finally, we confirm investors’ preferences for green bonds with higher credibility of both bonds and bond issuers.

近年来，由于全球对气候变化的意识日益增强，绿色债券市场经历了快速增长。然而，二级市场中“绿价”（与绿色债券相关的溢价）的存在、规模及其背后的驱动力仍存在争议。本研究调查了2016年至2023年欧元区的greenium演变，其中包括一段重大宏观经济转变时期，包括COVID-19大流行、能源危机，以及随后的通胀加剧和货币紧缩时期。我们的分析采用k-原型匹配算法构建了一个欧洲绿色债券和传统债券的紧密匹配面板，并记录了一个新颖的发现，即散户投资者对绿色债券的需求在一定程度上推动了绿色债券。散户投资者的财务状况对宏观经济形势的敏感性，特别是紧缩的货币政策，可以解释投资者对绿色债券的兴趣，从而解释绿期动态。最后，我们证实了投资者对绿色债券的偏好，债券和债券发行人的信誉都较高。

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引用次数: 0

Comparing conventional and unconventional monetary policy effects in the euro area and the United States 比较欧元区和美国传统和非常规货币政策的影响

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102203

Fernando Ballabriga , Karen Davtyan

We use a consistent framework to compare the macroeconomic effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area (EA) and the United States (US). We find that monetary policy has a stronger effect on prices for the conventional policy period. We interpret this result by the lower level of the natural rate of interest during the unconventional policy period. At the same time, the effects of monetary policy on the unemployment rate and financial variables are more comparable between the conventional and the unconventional policy periods. We also find that the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy in terms of its target impact is lower in the EA than in the US, a result we attribute to differences in central bank institutional design.

我们使用一致的框架来比较欧元区（EA）和美国（US）传统和非常规货币政策的宏观经济影响。我们发现，在常规政策时期，货币政策对价格的影响更大。我们用非常规政策期间自然利率水平较低来解释这一结果。同时，货币政策对失业率和金融变量的影响在常规和非常规政策时期之间更具可比性。我们还发现，就其目标影响而言，非常规货币政策在欧洲的有效性低于美国，我们将这一结果归因于央行制度设计的差异。

引用次数: 0

Executives’ early-life experience and corporate debt contracting: Evidence from CEO military experience 高管早年经历与公司债务承包：来自CEO军事经历的证据

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102200

Harvey Nguyen , Mia Hang Pham , Van Hoang Vu

We show that the leadership style of veteran CEOs has important implications for their companies’ costs of bank loans. We find that banks charge, on average, 10.8 basis points lower for firms headed by veteran CEOs, compared to otherwise similar firms. Firms with veteran CEOs are also subject to lower collateral requirements and covenant restrictions. The effect of veteran CEOs on loan costs comes from an improvement in the firm’s information environment and a reduction in firm risk. Overall, our study highlights the increasing relevance of leadership background in lending decisions, suggesting that personal characteristics may influence access to capital in global credit markets.

我们发现，资深ceo的领导风格对其公司的银行贷款成本有重要影响。我们发现，与其他同类公司相比，由资深首席执行官领导的公司的银行收费平均低10.8个基点。拥有资深ceo的公司也会受到较低的抵押品要求和契约限制。资深ceo对贷款成本的影响来自于企业信息环境的改善和企业风险的降低。总体而言，我们的研究强调了领导背景与贷款决策的相关性日益增强，这表明个人特征可能会影响全球信贷市场上的资本获取。

引用次数: 0

The effect of fintech financing on firm performance: Evidence from emerging economies 金融科技融资对企业绩效的影响：来自新兴经济体的证据

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102201

Khusrav Gaibulloev , Ali Mirzaei , Tomoe Moore , Mohsen Saad

This paper rigorously examines the relationship between fintech financing and the financial and real performance of financially constrained firms in emerging countries. Using data from 45,770 firms across 20 countries for 2012–2020, we find that the performance of external-finance dependent firms is disproportionately higher when they operate in countries that receive more fintech funds. A host of robustness tests confirm our main finding. We further find that: (i) P2P lending and crowdfunding have greater implications on firm performance than balance sheet lending (ii) the relationship is particularly strong in young firms, and financially developed emerging countries with deeper disclosure of credit information, and (iii) specifically, in countries with greater banking penetration, there is evidence of a substitution effect between bank lending and fintech. Additionally, fintech finance increases capital investment, lowers borrowing costs, and boosts total factor productivity (TFP) to improve firm performance.

本文严格考察了金融科技融资与新兴国家财务受限企业的财务和实际绩效之间的关系。利用2012-2020年来自20个国家的45770家公司的数据，我们发现，当依赖外部融资的公司在获得更多金融科技资金的国家运营时，它们的绩效会不成比例地更高。大量的稳健性测试证实了我们的主要发现。我们进一步发现：(i) P2P借贷和众筹对企业绩效的影响比资产负债表借贷更大；（ii）这种关系在年轻公司和信用信息披露更深的金融发达新兴国家尤为强烈；（iii）具体而言，在银行渗透率更高的国家，有证据表明银行借贷和金融科技之间存在替代效应。此外，金融科技金融增加了资本投资，降低了借贷成本，提高了全要素生产率（TFP），从而改善了企业绩效。

引用次数: 0

Does Banks’ environmental engagement impact funding costs? 银行的环境参与是否会影响融资成本？

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102184

Md Jaber Al Islam , Fernando Moreira , Mustapha Douch

Despite growing research on corporate environmental performance, the effect of banks’ environmental engagement on funding costs remains unclear. While some evidence suggests that environmentally committed banks secure lower funding costs, other studies report no significant effect, leaving the evidence inconclusive. This study addresses this inconsistency by analysing distinct funding cost measures in a global sample and demonstrating that banks with strong environmental engagement consistently benefit from reduced funding costs across multiple dimensions. The advantage is more pronounced among banks in advanced, less concentrated economies with stronger currencies and lower deposit levels. The Paris Agreement has raised awareness among depositors and investors about their role in mitigating climate change. Although such support is generally driven by sound risk management, capital adequacy, and asset size, periods of rising real interest rates and economic crises shift priorities toward higher financial returns. Our results remain robust across alternative samples, model specifications, estimation methods, funding cost measures, and endogeneity correction techniques.

尽管对企业环境绩效的研究越来越多，但银行环境参与对融资成本的影响仍不清楚。虽然一些证据表明，致力于环保的银行获得了较低的融资成本，但其他研究报告没有显著影响，因此证据不确定。本研究通过分析全球样本中不同的融资成本指标来解决这种不一致性，并证明具有强大环境参与的银行始终受益于多个维度的融资成本降低。这种优势在发达、集中度较低、货币较坚挺、存款水平较低的经济体的银行中更为明显。《巴黎协定》提高了存款人和投资者对自己在减缓气候变化中的作用的认识。虽然这种支持通常是由健全的风险管理、资本充足率和资产规模驱动的，但实际利率上升和经济危机时期将优先考虑更高的财务回报。我们的结果在可选样本、模型规格、估计方法、资金成本度量和内质性校正技术中都是稳健的。

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引用次数: 0

Stock market liberalization and exports of small and medium-sized enterprises 股票市场自由化与中小企业出口

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102182

Liting Fang , Lerong He , Liying Huang

The paper investigates the impact of stock market liberalization on the exports of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Using the launch of China’s Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Program as a quasi-experiment, we apply a difference-in-differences design to examine how the relaxation of foreign investment in listed Chinese SMEs stimulates these firms’ exports. We find that SMEs qualified for the Stock Connect program are associated with a larger increase in export propensity and export intensity in the post-liberalization period than the control group of SMEs unqualified for the program. We also confirm that stock market liberalization increases foreign institutional investor investment and reduces SMEs’ financing constraints, thus encouraging risk sharing, providing more information and resources to SMEs, and increasing their willingness and ability to export. In addition, we show that the influence of stock market liberalization on SMEs’ exports is contingent on industry, firm, and executive characteristics that shape firms’ resource needs and their perceptions of risk and uncertainty associated with exporting. Finally, we provide modest evidence that stock market liberalization encourages outward foreign direct investment. Overall, our paper reveals the facilitating role of stock market liberalization in boosting SMEs’ exports, the underlying mechanisms explaining this relationship, and the contingency factors affecting the strength of this relationship.

本文研究了股票市场自由化对中小企业出口的影响。利用中国深港通计划的启动作为准实验，我们采用差异中的差异设计来检验外国对中国上市中小企业投资的放松如何刺激这些企业的出口。我们发现，符合沪港通条件的中小企业在后开放时期的出口倾向和出口强度的增长幅度大于不符合沪港通条件的中小企业对照组。我们还确认，股票市场自由化增加了境外机构投资者的投资，减少了中小企业的融资约束，从而鼓励风险分担，为中小企业提供更多信息和资源，增强其出口意愿和能力。此外，我们发现股票市场自由化对中小企业出口的影响取决于行业、企业和高管特征，这些特征决定了企业的资源需求以及他们对与出口相关的风险和不确定性的看法。最后，我们提供了适度的证据表明，股票市场自由化鼓励对外直接投资。总体而言，本文揭示了股票市场自由化对中小企业出口的促进作用，解释这种关系的潜在机制，以及影响这种关系强度的偶然性因素。

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引用次数: 0

Predictable liquidity properties in a Segmented, inelastic stock market 在一个分段的、无弹性的股票市场中可预测的流动性特性

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102181

Haim Kedar-Levy , Joon-Seok Kim , Sean Sehyun Yoo

We explore the predictive capability of two investment strategies on idiosyncratic volatility, liquidity risk and liquidity commonality, by investor type. Investors are characterized as positive-feedback or contrarian once their trades are significantly associated with daily stock returns on a given month. We find that this classification has predictive power: positive-feedback traders (mainly foreign investors) tend to increase, while contrarian traders (mainly local individuals) tend to reduce, the following month’s volatility and liquidity. Different investor clienteles segment the market by stock characteristics, questioning linear cross-sectional pricing. Controlling for supply inelasticity we find that share issuance/buyback datapoints tilt some of the statistics and blur the findings.

根据投资者类型，探讨了两种投资策略对特质波动率、流动性风险和流动性共性的预测能力。一旦投资者的交易与给定月份的每日股票回报显著相关，他们就被定性为正反馈投资者或反向投资者。我们发现这种分类具有预测能力：正反馈交易者（主要是外国投资者）倾向于增加，而反向交易者（主要是本地个人）倾向于减少，接下来一个月的波动性和流动性。不同的投资者客户根据股票特征细分市场，质疑线性截面定价。在控制供应不弹性的情况下，我们发现股票发行/回购数据点倾斜了一些统计数据，模糊了研究结果。

引用次数: 0

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