Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money最新文献

英文中文

Revisiting central bank credibility: Results from a new survey 重新审视央行的可信度：一项新调查的结果

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102222

Joanna Mackiewicz-Łyziak , Tymoteusz Mętrak

Literature on economists’ perceptions of central bank credibility is limited, with Alan Blinder’s work remaining the seminal piece. In this study, we examine how views on various aspects of central bank credibility have evolved over the past two decades, since Blinder’s first survey on this topic. We present the results of the survey conducted in March and April 2024 among 319 experts in the fields of central banking and monetary economics. The questionnaire includes items from the original survey, as well as several new ones, particularly those related to the impact of unconventional monetary policy on credibility, credibility measurement, and central bank objectives. The results indicate that economists still perceive central bank credibility as considerably important for different aspects of central bank activities. In the study, respondents who were central bank practitioners considered credibility more important for monetary policymaking than did academics. Independence, a history of honesty, and transparency were identified as the most important attributes of central bank credibility, while unconventional monetary policies and large fiscal expansions were not considered threats to credibility. These results offer important implications for central banks aiming to formulate relevant policy guidelines.

关于经济学家对央行可信度看法的文献有限，艾伦•布林德（Alan Blinder）的研究仍是开创性的。在本研究中，我们考察了自布林德首次就这一主题进行调查以来，人们对央行可信度各个方面的看法在过去20年里是如何演变的。我们将介绍2024年3月和4月对中央银行和货币经济学领域的319名专家进行的调查结果。该问卷包括原始调查中的项目，以及几个新项目，特别是与非常规货币政策对可信度、可信度测量和央行目标的影响有关的项目。结果表明，经济学家仍然认为中央银行的信誉在中央银行活动的不同方面相当重要。在这项研究中，作为央行从业人员的受访者认为，在货币政策制定方面，可信度比学者更重要。独立性、诚信历史和透明度被认为是央行可信度最重要的特征，而非常规货币政策和大规模财政扩张不被视为对可信度的威胁。这些结果为旨在制定相关政策指导方针的央行提供了重要启示。

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引用次数: 0

Comparing conventional and unconventional monetary policy effects in the euro area and the United States 比较欧元区和美国传统和非常规货币政策的影响

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102203

Fernando Ballabriga , Karen Davtyan

We use a consistent framework to compare the macroeconomic effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area (EA) and the United States (US). We find that monetary policy has a stronger effect on prices for the conventional policy period. We interpret this result by the lower level of the natural rate of interest during the unconventional policy period. At the same time, the effects of monetary policy on the unemployment rate and financial variables are more comparable between the conventional and the unconventional policy periods. We also find that the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy in terms of its target impact is lower in the EA than in the US, a result we attribute to differences in central bank institutional design.

我们使用一致的框架来比较欧元区（EA）和美国（US）传统和非常规货币政策的宏观经济影响。我们发现，在常规政策时期，货币政策对价格的影响更大。我们用非常规政策期间自然利率水平较低来解释这一结果。同时，货币政策对失业率和金融变量的影响在常规和非常规政策时期之间更具可比性。我们还发现，就其目标影响而言，非常规货币政策在欧洲的有效性低于美国，我们将这一结果归因于央行制度设计的差异。

引用次数: 0

Accounting vs technical information: what matters more for stock return predictability? 会计与技术信息：哪个对股票收益的可预测性更重要？

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102207

Nusret Cakici , Adam Zaremba

We employ machine learning models to determine what matters more for stock return predictability: technical data or accounting information. Technical data holds an advantage—it consistently yields more accurate forecasts and higher portfolio returns. This superiority is not limited to the U.S. market but extends to major developed markets worldwide, at times showing even stronger effects. Furthermore, it remains remarkably robust across firm sizes and time periods. However, its edge is most pronounced at short horizons and comes at the cost of higher turnover. Accounting signals, while weaker overall, perform better over longer horizons and support lower-cost implementation. Finally, technical strategies excel in volatile, hard-to-value contexts, whereas accounting-based models fare better when valuation uncertainty is low.

我们使用机器学习模型来确定什么对股票回报的可预测性更重要：技术数据还是会计信息。技术数据有一个优势——它总是能产生更准确的预测和更高的投资组合回报。这种优势不仅限于美国市场，而且延伸到世界主要发达市场，有时甚至表现出更强的效果。此外，它在公司规模和时间段内仍然非常强劲。然而，它的优势在短期内最为明显，并以更高的流动率为代价。会计信号虽然总体上较弱，但在较长时间内表现更好，并支持较低成本的实施。最后，技术策略在不稳定、难以估值的环境中表现出色，而基于会计的模型在估值不确定性较低时表现更好。

引用次数: 0

Directors with foreign experience and corporate cash holdings 具有海外经验和公司现金持有量的董事

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102208

Xinyu Yu , Ping Wang

This study examines the impact of directors with foreign experience (FE directors) on corporate cash holdings. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms, we find that directors with the experience of working or studying abroad have a positive and significant impact on corporate cash decisions, supporting the precautionary motive. The result is valid across a set of robustness tests and several endogeneity checks. Moreover, we find that the association between FE directors and cash holdings is more pronounced in firms with greater financial constraints and investment opportunities. The mediation analysis further identifies two potential channels through which FE directors increase cash holdings, that is, facilitating foreign operations and promoting risky innovation. We finally perform a series of additional analyses to further validate our findings. Overall, our study reveals that it is the resource-providing role that such directors play to shape cash policy, which sheds new light on the value of international human capital for firms in emerging markets.

本研究探讨具有海外经验的董事（FE董事）对公司现金持有量的影响。以中国上市公司为样本，我们发现具有海外工作或留学经历的董事对公司现金决策有显著的正向影响，这支持了预防性动机。结果是有效的跨一组鲁棒性测试和几个内生性检查。此外，我们发现，在财务约束和投资机会较大的公司中，财务总监与现金持有量之间的关联更为明显。中介分析进一步确定了FE董事增加现金持有量的两个潜在渠道，即促进国外业务和促进风险创新。最后，我们执行了一系列附加分析来进一步验证我们的发现。总体而言，我们的研究表明，这些董事在制定现金政策方面发挥的是资源提供作用，这为新兴市场企业的国际人力资本价值提供了新的视角。

引用次数: 0

Bearish bets and the press: On the relation between short interest and media tone 看跌押注与媒体：论空头兴趣与媒体语气的关系

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102205

Heiko Jacobs , Alexander Lauber , Sebastian Müller

We analyze the extent to which proxies for short interest at the firm level influence the tone of media reporting for the cross-section of firms. The examination of the German stock market shows that there is a significantly negative relation. Nevertheless, this relation becomes often, though not always, insignificant after thoroughly controlling for relevant company characteristics. Past performance as well as measures of differences of opinion and information uncertainty prove to be particularly important for tonality. These findings are similar for domestic and foreign reporting. With the exception of salience shocks, these results are also obtained for both public and non-public short interest. Additional evidence results from article characteristics and the aggregated time series, among others. On a broader level, the results contribute to the discussion about drivers of media reporting in financial markets.

我们分析了公司层面的空头利益代理在多大程度上影响了公司横截面媒体报道的语气。对德国股市的检验表明，两者之间存在显著的负相关关系。然而，在彻底控制了相关的公司特征之后，这种关系往往（尽管并非总是）变得微不足道。过去的表现以及对意见分歧和信息不确定性的衡量被证明对调性特别重要。这些发现在国内外的报道中是相似的。除显著性冲击外，这些结果同样适用于公开和非公开的空头权益。其他证据来自文章特征和汇总时间序列等。在更广泛的层面上，研究结果有助于讨论金融市场中媒体报道的驱动因素。

引用次数: 0

Do ESG investments improve portfolio diversification and risk management during times of uncertainty 在不确定时期，ESG投资是否能改善投资组合的多元化和风险管理

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102199

Hachmi Ben Ameur , Zied Ftiti , Wael Louhichi

This study aims to assess whether the statistical properties of ESG assets contribute to portfolio resilience, mitigate market volatility, and enhance diversification. Specifically, we focus on variations in the tails of the return distribution, highlighting potential asymmetries in risk exposure. We use weekly ESG and conventional indices across various regions from January 2017 to May 2023. Empirically, we augment the mean-conditional value at risk (CVaR) optimisation technique, by introducing geopolitical risk as an exogenous factor. First, ESG indices enhance portfolio diversification while reducing exposure to extreme market movements and geopolitical uncertainty. Second, incorporating ESG assets is advantageous for both sustainable investment and effective financial risk management, presenting a viable option for investors pursuing both financial and sustainability objectives. Moreover, our results remain robust under incremental CVaR approach and align with the time-varying sensitivity of ESG and conventional indices to geopolitical risk, as shown by beta dynamics analysis. Our findings offer several insights for investors diversifying their portfolio.

本研究旨在评估ESG资产的统计属性是否有助于投资组合弹性、缓解市场波动和增强多元化。具体来说，我们关注回报分布尾部的变化，强调风险暴露的潜在不对称性。我们在2017年1月至2023年5月期间使用不同地区的每周ESG和传统指数。在经验上，我们通过引入地缘政治风险作为外生因素，增加了平均条件风险值（CVaR）优化技术。首先，ESG指数增强了投资组合的多元化，同时减少了对极端市场波动和地缘政治不确定性的敞口。其次，纳入ESG资产有利于可持续投资和有效的财务风险管理，为追求财务和可持续性目标的投资者提供了一个可行的选择。此外，我们的结果在增量CVaR方法下仍然稳健，并与ESG和传统指数对地缘政治风险的时变敏感性相一致，如beta动力学分析所示。我们的研究结果为投资者多样化投资组合提供了一些见解。

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引用次数: 0

The effect of fintech financing on firm performance: Evidence from emerging economies 金融科技融资对企业绩效的影响：来自新兴经济体的证据

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102201

Khusrav Gaibulloev , Ali Mirzaei , Tomoe Moore , Mohsen Saad

This paper rigorously examines the relationship between fintech financing and the financial and real performance of financially constrained firms in emerging countries. Using data from 45,770 firms across 20 countries for 2012–2020, we find that the performance of external-finance dependent firms is disproportionately higher when they operate in countries that receive more fintech funds. A host of robustness tests confirm our main finding. We further find that: (i) P2P lending and crowdfunding have greater implications on firm performance than balance sheet lending (ii) the relationship is particularly strong in young firms, and financially developed emerging countries with deeper disclosure of credit information, and (iii) specifically, in countries with greater banking penetration, there is evidence of a substitution effect between bank lending and fintech. Additionally, fintech finance increases capital investment, lowers borrowing costs, and boosts total factor productivity (TFP) to improve firm performance.

本文严格考察了金融科技融资与新兴国家财务受限企业的财务和实际绩效之间的关系。利用2012-2020年来自20个国家的45770家公司的数据，我们发现，当依赖外部融资的公司在获得更多金融科技资金的国家运营时，它们的绩效会不成比例地更高。大量的稳健性测试证实了我们的主要发现。我们进一步发现：(i) P2P借贷和众筹对企业绩效的影响比资产负债表借贷更大；（ii）这种关系在年轻公司和信用信息披露更深的金融发达新兴国家尤为强烈；（iii）具体而言，在银行渗透率更高的国家，有证据表明银行借贷和金融科技之间存在替代效应。此外，金融科技金融增加了资本投资，降低了借贷成本，提高了全要素生产率（TFP），从而改善了企业绩效。

引用次数: 0

Bank lending and interest-on-excess-reserves: Effects of Central Banks on the global credit supply 银行贷款和超额准备金利息：中央银行对全球信贷供给的影响

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102185

Irem Erten

How do banks behave when the opportunity cost of keeping overnight liquidity is less? In this paper, I study the adoption of unconventional monetary policy with interest-on-excess-reserves (IOER) in the pre-2008-crisis period in Australia, Canada, Europe, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Exploiting this cross-border shock to the monetary design, I show that global banks move liquidity to their home countries and reduce their cross-border credit supply when their home Central Bank introduces a deposit facility that remunerates overnight excess reserves. The credit supply reduction is focused on the smaller, less profitable, and more illiquid branches of the affected banks. Thus, a reduction in the opportunity cost of overnight liquidity has a contractionary impact on the credit supply and results in global macroeconomic spillovers. The results suggest that banks cut lending when the Central Bank is a risk-free borrower and have broad implications for the design of monetary policy, payment systems, and liquidity regulations.

当保持隔夜流动性的机会成本降低时，银行会如何表现？在本文中，我研究了澳大利亚、加拿大、欧洲、日本和英国在2008年危机前采用超额准备金利率（IOER）非常规货币政策的情况。利用这种对货币设计的跨境冲击，我表明，当母国央行引入一种存款机制，为隔夜超额准备金提供报酬时，跨国银行将流动性转移到母国，并减少其跨境信贷供应。信贷供应减少的重点是受影响银行中规模较小、利润较低、流动性较差的分支机构。因此，隔夜流动性机会成本的降低会对信贷供应产生收缩影响，并导致全球宏观经济溢出效应。研究结果表明，当央行是无风险借款人时，银行会削减贷款，这对货币政策、支付系统和流动性监管的设计具有广泛的影响。

引用次数: 0

Do companies’ green credentials enhance trade credit provisions? Global evidence 企业的绿色证书是否能提高贸易信贷条款？全球的证据

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102204

Rashid Zaman , Nader Atawnah , Deepa Banigidadmath , Muhammad Nadeem , Jia Liu

We investigate the impact of corporate renewable energy (RE) adoption on suppliers’ trade credit provisions. Using a global sample of 30 countries, we establish that firms engaging in higher RE consumption secure increased trade credit. Our results remain robust to a variety of sensitivity tests and after accounting for potential endogeneity concerns using the Paris Agreement and companies switching to green energy as exogenous shocks. Our channel analysis reveals that RE take-up mitigates companies’ environmental risk (proxied by environmental violation fines, media coverage of environmental controversies, GHG emissions, and environmental policy stringency). Additional tests reveal that the relationship between RE and trade credit is stronger for adopters with lower bargaining power and those in environmentally sensitive industries. Cross-sectional analysis reveals that the documented positive impact is stronger in developed economies and during periods of high policy uncertainty. Finally, we discover that RE adoption enhances firm value and promotes a supply-chain spillover, since adopters are also more likely to extend trade credit to their own customers. Our paper provides original evidence that RE adapting improves companies’ access to informal financing in the form of higher trade credit.

我们研究了企业采用可再生能源对供应商贸易信贷规定的影响。使用全球30个国家的样本，我们确定从事更高可再生能源消费的公司获得了更多的贸易信贷。在考虑了《巴黎协定》和企业转向绿色能源作为外生冲击的潜在内生性问题后，我们的结果在各种敏感性测试中仍然稳健。我们的渠道分析表明，可再生能源的使用减轻了公司的环境风险（以环境违规罚款、媒体对环境争议的报道、温室气体排放和环境政策严格程度为代表）。额外的测试表明，可再生能源与贸易信贷之间的关系对于议价能力较低的采用者和环境敏感行业的采用者更强。横断面分析显示，记录在案的积极影响在发达经济体和政策高度不确定性时期更为强烈。最后，我们发现可再生能源的采用提高了企业价值并促进了供应链溢出，因为采用者也更有可能将贸易信贷扩展到他们自己的客户。本文提供的原始证据表明，可再生能源适应改善了企业获得更高贸易信贷形式的非正式融资的途径。

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引用次数: 0

How do emotions drive market dynamics? A tale of spillovers in cryptocurrency markets 情绪是如何驱动市场动态的？加密货币市场溢出效应的故事

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102202

Yingying Huang , Weizhong Liang , Kun Duan , Andrew Urquhart , Qiang Ye

This paper studies emotional spillovers in cryptocurrency markets and the associated impacts on market performance. By constructing a dynamic connectedness network, we capture the emotional spillover effects among the major cryptocurrencies and their time-varying evolution. We then quantify how the emotional spillovers of cryptocurrencies drive their market performance within a joint distributional framework that gauges the heterogeneity of such a linkage under different conditions of emotions and market performance of cryptocurrencies. Our results indicate that within emotional spillovers, cryptocurrencies act as the net information receiver, while carbon-intensive (dirty) cryptocurrencies play a greater role in driving emotional spillovers than eco-friendly (clean) ones. The stock market, being controlled by the emotional system, is found to be the major net provider. From a dynamic perspective, clean cryptocurrencies are shown to have stronger emotional spillover effects than dirty cryptocurrencies prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the effects of both gradually weaken thereafter. The role of emotional spillovers in driving market performance is often more pronounced under extreme market conditions in cryptocurrency markets.

本文研究了加密货币市场的情绪溢出及其对市场表现的相关影响。通过构建动态连通性网络，我们捕捉了主要加密货币之间的情感溢出效应及其随时间变化的演变。然后，我们量化了加密货币的情绪溢出效应如何在一个联合分布框架内推动其市场表现，该框架衡量了在不同情绪和加密货币市场表现条件下这种联系的异质性。我们的研究结果表明，在情绪溢出中，加密货币充当净信息接收者，而碳密集型（肮脏）加密货币在推动情绪溢出方面发挥的作用大于生态友好型（清洁）加密货币。受情绪系统控制的股票市场是主要的网络提供者。从动态角度看，在新冠肺炎大流行之前，干净的加密货币比脏的加密货币具有更强的情绪溢出效应，之后两者的影响逐渐减弱。在加密货币市场的极端市场条件下，情绪溢出在推动市场表现方面的作用往往更为明显。

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