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CEO partisan bias and management earnings forecast bias 首席执行官党派偏见与管理层盈利预测偏差
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09846-4
Michael D. Stuart, Jing Wang, Richard H. Willis

Research concludes that managers’ political orientation influences their decision-making and offers the political connections and risk tolerance hypotheses as explanations. We investigate partisan bias as an additional way political orientation may influence managers’ decisions. Partisan bias results in individuals whose partisan orientation aligns with that of the US president expressing more optimistic economic expectations. We examine whether partisan bias is present in managers’ annual earnings forecasts. We find that firms with CEOs whose partisanship aligns with that of the US president issue more optimistically biased annual earnings forecasts than firms with other CEOs. Higher-ability CEOs, however, are less susceptible to partisan bias. Additionally, we find that overestimating customer demand contributes to the forecast over-optimism of partisan-aligned CEOs and results in greater firm overinvestment. Furthermore, investors fail to discount the news in forecasts of partisan-aligned CEOs, and their firms’ post-forecast abnormal returns are lower.

研究认为,管理者的政治取向会影响他们的决策,并提出了政治联系假说和风险容忍度假说作为解释。我们将党派偏见作为政治取向影响经理人决策的另一种方式进行研究。党派偏见会导致党派倾向与美国总统一致的个人表达更乐观的经济预期。我们研究了经理人的年度盈利预测中是否存在党派偏见。我们发现,与其他首席执行官的公司相比,党派倾向与美国总统一致的首席执行官的公司发布的年度盈利预测更具乐观倾向。然而,能力较高的首席执行官不易受到党派偏见的影响。此外,我们还发现,高估客户需求会导致党派一致的首席执行官的预测过于乐观,并导致公司过度投资。此外,投资者未能对党派联盟首席执行官预测中的新闻进行打折,其公司预测后的异常回报率也较低。
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引用次数: 0
CEO tax burden and debt contracting CEO 税负和债务收缩
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-20 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09829-5
Thomas R. Kubick, G. Brandon Lockhart, David C. Mauer

We examine how locked-in CEO equity attributable to large unrealized capital gains tax liabilities influences the cost and restrictiveness of debt contracts. We find that firms enjoy lower loan spreads and are more (less) likely to receive ratings upgrades (downgrades) when their CEO has a large tax burden. Using the capital gains tax rate decrease in the Tax Reform Act of 1997 as an exogenous shock to CEO tax burdens, we find that CEOs with large tax burdens before the tax cut experience a sharp increase in loan spreads afterward. This increase in spreads is larger when the firm has low profitability, high bankruptcy risk, and when loans are unsecured. Further, CEO tax burdens decrease the restrictiveness of nonprice loan terms, increase syndicate size, and decrease issue costs.

我们研究了因巨额未实现资本利得税负债而锁定的首席执行官股权如何影响债务合同的成本和限制性。我们发现,当公司首席执行官的税负较大时,公司的贷款利差较低,获得评级上调(下调)的可能性较大(较小)。以 1997 年《税制改革法案》中资本利得税税率的降低作为 CEO 税负的外生冲击,我们发现,减税前税负较高的 CEO 在减税后的贷款利差会急剧上升。当公司盈利能力低、破产风险高以及贷款无担保时,利差的增幅更大。此外,CEO 税负会降低非价格贷款条款的限制性、增加银团规模并降低发行成本。
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引用次数: 0
Voluntary disclosures and monetary policy: evidence from quantitative easing 自愿披露与货币政策:量化宽松政策的证据
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09827-7
Roberto Vincenzi

This study investigates the influence of central bank private-sector quantitative easing (QE) policies on firms’ voluntary disclosures. While the effects of QE on borrowing costs and asset prices are well documented, spillovers in the disclosure realm remain understudied. This study specifically analyzes the effects of the Corporate Sector Purchase Program (CSPP), a private-sector QE policy implemented by the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2016 targeting corporate bonds in the euro area. Applying a difference-in-differences methodology to pre- and post-CSPP periods, I find that firms whose bonds the central bank purchased under the CSPP decreased their voluntary disclosures, particularly those related to cash flows and liabilities. My analysis attributes this decrease to reduced demand for firm-specific information from the central bank. My findings highlight the indirect consequences of QE monetary policy tools on corporate disclosure and contribute to the understanding of the transmission of monetary policy and investor-clientele dynamics.

本研究探讨了中央银行私营部门量化宽松(QE)政策对企业自愿披露信息的影响。尽管量化宽松政策对借贷成本和资产价格的影响有据可查,但其在信息披露领域的溢出效应仍未得到充分研究。本研究专门分析了企业部门购买计划(CSPP)的影响,这是欧洲中央银行(ECB)于 2016 年针对欧元区企业债券实施的私营部门量化宽松政策。通过对 CSPP 实施前和实施后的时期进行差异分析,我发现央行在 CSPP 框架下购买其债券的企业减少了自愿披露的信息,尤其是与现金流和负债相关的信息。我的分析将这种减少归因于央行对企业特定信息的需求减少。我的研究结果凸显了量化宽松货币政策工具对企业信息披露的间接影响,有助于理解货币政策的传导和投资者-客户动态。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate carbon accounting: balance sheets and flow statements 企业碳会计:资产负债表和流量表
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09830-y
Stefan Reichelstein

Current corporate disclosures regarding carbon emissions lack generally accepted accounting rules. The transactional carbon accounting system described here takes the rules of historical cost accounting for operating assets as a template for generating carbon emissions (CE) statements comprising a balance sheet and a flow statement. The asset side of the CE balance sheet reports the carbon emissions embodied in operating assets. The liability side conveys the firm’s cumulative direct emissions into the atmosphere as well as the cumulative emissions embodied in goods acquired from suppliers less those sold to customers. Flow statements report the company’s annual corporate carbon footprint calculated as the cradle-to-gate carbon footprint of goods sold during the current period. Taken together, balance sheets and flow statements generate key performance indicators of a company’s past, current, and future performance in the domain of carbon emissions.

目前的企业碳排放披露缺乏公认的会计规则。本文介绍的交易型碳会计系统以经营资产的历史成本会计规则为模板,生成由资产负债表和流量表组成的碳排放(CE)报表。资产负债表的资产端报告经营资产所体现的碳排放量。负债方面则反映了公司直接排放到大气中的累计排放量,以及从供应商处购买的商品减去出售给客户的商品所体现的累计排放量。流动报表报告公司的年度企业碳足迹,计算方法是当期所售商品从摇篮到入口的碳足迹。综合来看,资产负债表和流量表产生了公司在碳排放领域过去、现在和未来表现的关键绩效指标。
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引用次数: 0
Investor-firm private interactions and informed trading: Evidence from New York City taxi patterns 投资者与公司之间的私人互动和知情交易:来自纽约市出租车模式的证据
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09845-5
Marcus Kirk, Zhenhao Jeffery Piao
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引用次数: 0
Crypto-influencers 加密影响者
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09838-4
Kenneth J. Merkley, Joseph Pacelli, Mark Piorkowski, Brian Williams

This study examines the investment value of information provided by crypto-influencers, that is, social media influencers covering crypto assets on Twitter. We examine the returns associated with approximately 36,000 tweets issued by 180 of the most prominent crypto social media influencers covering over 1,600 crypto assets for the two years spanning through December 2022. Our primary results indicate that crypto-influencers’ tweets are initially associated with positive returns. However, these tweets are followed by significant negative longer-horizon returns, suggesting they generate minimal long-term investment value. These effects are most pronounced for tweets issued by crypto-influencers proclaiming to be crypto experts, for smaller cap crypto asset securities and for self-described experts with many Twitter followers. In an additional analysis, we use machine-learning methods to classify tweets and find that this pattern of results strengthens when the tweets have a more positive sentiment or relate to buy recommendations.

本研究探讨了加密货币影响者(即在 Twitter 上报道加密货币资产的社交媒体影响者)所提供信息的投资价值。我们研究了 180 位最著名的加密货币社交媒体影响者在 2022 年 12 月之前的两年内发布的约 36,000 条推文的相关回报,这些推文涉及 1,600 多种加密货币资产。我们的主要结果表明,加密货币影响者的推文最初与正收益相关。然而,这些推文之后的长期回报率却显著为负,这表明它们产生的长期投资价值微乎其微。对于自称是加密专家的加密影响者发布的推文、市值较小的加密资产证券以及自诩为拥有众多推特粉丝的专家来说,这些影响最为明显。在额外的分析中,我们使用机器学习方法对推文进行分类,发现当推文具有更积极的情绪或与购买建议相关时,这种结果模式会加强。
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引用次数: 0
Consensus credit ratings: a view from banks 共识信用评级:银行的观点
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09835-7
Ben Lourie, N. Bugra Ozel, Alexander Nekrasov, Chenqi Zhu

While the production of credit ratings has long been limited mainly to rating agencies (CRAs), recent years have seen the growing popularity of consensus credit ratings crowdsourced from banks (i.e., bank ratings). We provide the first comprehensive examination of the properties and informativeness of bank ratings relative to CRA ratings. We find that bank ratings often deviate from CRA ratings, with over 60% of firm-months having different bank and CRA ratings. These deviations contain useful information. Bank ratings improve out-of-sample prediction of defaults and CRA rating revisions and explain the cross-section of credit spreads. However, bank ratings do not improve out-of-sample prediction of credit excess returns, indicating that current prices incorporate bank rating information. Overall our findings suggest that bank ratings are a useful supplement to traditional credit ratings.

长期以来,信用评级的制作主要局限于评级机构(CRA),而近年来,银行众包的共识信用评级(即银行评级)越来越受欢迎。我们首次全面考察了银行评级相对于 CRA 评级的特性和信息量。我们发现,银行评级往往偏离 CRA 评级,超过 60% 的公司月的银行评级与 CRA 评级不同。这些偏差包含有用的信息。银行评级改善了对违约和 CRA 评级修订的样本外预测,并解释了信用利差的横截面。然而,银行评级并没有改善对信用超额收益的样本外预测,这表明当前价格包含了银行评级信息。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,银行评级是对传统信用评级的有益补充。
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引用次数: 0
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) assurance: early evidence 分散融资(DeFi)保证:早期证据
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09834-8
Thomas Bourveau, Janja Brendel, Jordan Schoenfeld

Decentralized finance (DeFi) has emerged to offer traditional financial services such as lending, borrowing, and trading without intermediaries (e.g., banks). DeFi transactions are typically executed using a special digital class of contracts called smart contracts. These contracts are self-executing and hard-coded directly on a blockchain. We observe the emergence of a new class of voluntary audits that evaluate the integrity of these contracts. Using a hand-coded sample of about 8,500 smart contract audit reports, we provide some of the first evidence showing that (1) these audits are pervasive, (2) the audit firm market is composed of new technical audit firms, (3) the scope of these audits can span a variety of contract features, (4) the audit inputs and outputs differ substantively from those of conventional financial audits, and (5) the market reacts positively to the release of these audit reports, suggesting that these reports are value-relevant. These findings highlight the demand for novel assurance services driven by blockchain technology.

去中心化金融(DeFi)的出现是为了在没有中介机构(如银行)的情况下提供借贷和交易等传统金融服务。DeFi 交易通常使用一种特殊的数字合约(称为智能合约)来执行。这些合约可以自动执行,并直接硬编码在区块链上。我们观察到出现了一种新的自愿审计,用于评估这些合约的完整性。我们使用手工编码的约 8,500 份智能合约审计报告样本,首次提供了一些证据,表明:(1)这些审计普遍存在;(2)审计公司市场由新技术审计公司组成;(3)这些审计的范围可涵盖各种合约特征;(4)审计的输入和输出与传统财务审计的输入和输出有很大不同;(5)市场对这些审计报告的发布反应积极,表明这些报告与价值相关。这些发现凸显了区块链技术驱动下对新型鉴证服务的需求。
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引用次数: 0
The changing nature of financial analysis in the presence of ETFs ETF 出现后金融分析性质的变化
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09841-9
Russell Lundholm, Xin Zheng

We study how the launch of an electronically traded fund (ETF) that holds firms in a specific industry changes the behavior of analysts who follow that firms in that industry. An industry ETF allows investors to trade the firm-specific payoff separately from the industry payoff. This causes significant changes in the value of different types of information. In particular, following an increase in a firm’s industry ETF coverage, the firm’s analyst coverage increases in the following year, and this holds after controlling for changes in institutional investment and other characteristics. We also find that, following an increase in ETF coverage, analyst recommendations are more likely to include an industry recommendation separate from the firm-specific recommendation, and the latter is more likely to be stated in relative terms. Our results strengthen when the new ETF is a better hedge against the industry payoff factor and when we introduce a plausible control for endogeneity.

我们研究了持有特定行业公司的电子交易基金(ETF)的推出如何改变跟踪该行业公司的分析师的行为。行业 ETF 允许投资者将特定公司的收益与行业收益分开交易。这导致不同类型信息的价值发生重大变化。特别是,在公司的行业 ETF 覆盖率增加后,该公司下一年的分析师覆盖率也会增加,而且在控制了机构投资和其他特征的变化后,这种情况仍然成立。我们还发现,在 ETF 覆盖率增加后,分析师的建议更有可能包含独立于公司具体建议的行业建议,而且后者更有可能以相对方式表述。如果新的 ETF 能够更好地对冲行业回报因素,并且我们引入了可信的内生性控制,那么我们的研究结果就会得到加强。
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引用次数: 0
Diversity targets 多元化目标
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09831-x
Wei Cai, Yue Chen, Shiva Rajgopal, Li Azinovic-Yang

From 2008 to 2020, 180 of S&P 1500 have disclosed employee diversity targets. We conduct the first analysis of firms’ employee diversity targets and ask three research questions: (i) who announces diversity targets? (ii) do firms deliver on their diversity targets? (iii) what are the implications of disclosure of such targets for employee hiring and investors? We find that firms with a greater willingness (proxied by past ESG penalties, higher CEO-to-median employee pay ratio, more media coverage, and after #MeToo and Black Lives Matter movements) and ability (proxied by financial strength, a blue-collar heavy labor force, and gender and ethnic minorities on boards) to improve employee diversity are more likely to disclose diversity targets. Exploiting the Revelio dataset of 15,639 firm-years for 1,203 distinct firms from 2008 to 2020, we observe that firms that disclosed a diversity target have indeed hired more diverse employees, but such diversity levels had already increased substantially prior to the target disclosure. Firms with numerical, forward-looking, and rank-and-file employee-targeted goals are associated with greater employee diversity relative to firms that announce other types of diversity goals. Moreover, improved diversity performance does not appear to occur at the cost of employee quality, as measured by Revelio. Overall our results have practical implications for how investors and stakeholders might want to interpret corporate diversity targets.

从 2008 年到 2020 年,S&P 1500 家公司中有 180 家披露了员工多元化目标。我们首次对企业的员工多元化目标进行了分析,并提出了三个研究问题:(i) 谁公布了多元化目标?(ii) 企业是否实现了多元化目标?(iii) 披露此类目标对员工招聘和投资者有何影响?我们发现,更有意愿(以过去的环境、社会和公司治理处罚、更高的首席执行官与中层员工薪酬比、更多的媒体报道以及 #MeToo 和 Black Lives Matter 运动之后为代表)和能力(以财务实力、蓝领劳动力密集以及董事会中的性别和种族少数为代表)改善员工多元化的公司更有可能披露多元化目标。我们利用 2008 年至 2020 年间 1203 家不同公司 15639 个公司年的 Revelio 数据集观察到,披露了多元化目标的公司确实雇佣了更多多元化员工,但这些多元化水平在披露目标之前已经大幅提高。与公布其他类型多元化目标的公司相比,以数字、前瞻性和普通员工为目标的公司与员工多元化程度更高相关。此外,多元化绩效的提高似乎并不以员工素质为代价(以 Revelio 为衡量标准)。总之,我们的研究结果对于投资者和利益相关者如何理解企业多元化目标具有实际意义。
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引用次数: 0
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Review of Accounting Studies
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