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The changing nature of financial analysis in the presence of ETFs ETF 出现后金融分析性质的变化
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09841-9
Russell Lundholm, Xin Zheng

We study how the launch of an electronically traded fund (ETF) that holds firms in a specific industry changes the behavior of analysts who follow that firms in that industry. An industry ETF allows investors to trade the firm-specific payoff separately from the industry payoff. This causes significant changes in the value of different types of information. In particular, following an increase in a firm’s industry ETF coverage, the firm’s analyst coverage increases in the following year, and this holds after controlling for changes in institutional investment and other characteristics. We also find that, following an increase in ETF coverage, analyst recommendations are more likely to include an industry recommendation separate from the firm-specific recommendation, and the latter is more likely to be stated in relative terms. Our results strengthen when the new ETF is a better hedge against the industry payoff factor and when we introduce a plausible control for endogeneity.

我们研究了持有特定行业公司的电子交易基金(ETF)的推出如何改变跟踪该行业公司的分析师的行为。行业 ETF 允许投资者将特定公司的收益与行业收益分开交易。这导致不同类型信息的价值发生重大变化。特别是,在公司的行业 ETF 覆盖率增加后,该公司下一年的分析师覆盖率也会增加,而且在控制了机构投资和其他特征的变化后,这种情况仍然成立。我们还发现,在 ETF 覆盖率增加后,分析师的建议更有可能包含独立于公司具体建议的行业建议,而且后者更有可能以相对方式表述。如果新的 ETF 能够更好地对冲行业回报因素,并且我们引入了可信的内生性控制,那么我们的研究结果就会得到加强。
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引用次数: 0
Diversity targets 多元化目标
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09831-x
Wei Cai, Yue Chen, Shiva Rajgopal, Li Azinovic-Yang

From 2008 to 2020, 180 of S&P 1500 have disclosed employee diversity targets. We conduct the first analysis of firms’ employee diversity targets and ask three research questions: (i) who announces diversity targets? (ii) do firms deliver on their diversity targets? (iii) what are the implications of disclosure of such targets for employee hiring and investors? We find that firms with a greater willingness (proxied by past ESG penalties, higher CEO-to-median employee pay ratio, more media coverage, and after #MeToo and Black Lives Matter movements) and ability (proxied by financial strength, a blue-collar heavy labor force, and gender and ethnic minorities on boards) to improve employee diversity are more likely to disclose diversity targets. Exploiting the Revelio dataset of 15,639 firm-years for 1,203 distinct firms from 2008 to 2020, we observe that firms that disclosed a diversity target have indeed hired more diverse employees, but such diversity levels had already increased substantially prior to the target disclosure. Firms with numerical, forward-looking, and rank-and-file employee-targeted goals are associated with greater employee diversity relative to firms that announce other types of diversity goals. Moreover, improved diversity performance does not appear to occur at the cost of employee quality, as measured by Revelio. Overall our results have practical implications for how investors and stakeholders might want to interpret corporate diversity targets.

从 2008 年到 2020 年,S&P 1500 家公司中有 180 家披露了员工多元化目标。我们首次对企业的员工多元化目标进行了分析,并提出了三个研究问题:(i) 谁公布了多元化目标?(ii) 企业是否实现了多元化目标?(iii) 披露此类目标对员工招聘和投资者有何影响?我们发现,更有意愿(以过去的环境、社会和公司治理处罚、更高的首席执行官与中层员工薪酬比、更多的媒体报道以及 #MeToo 和 Black Lives Matter 运动之后为代表)和能力(以财务实力、蓝领劳动力密集以及董事会中的性别和种族少数为代表)改善员工多元化的公司更有可能披露多元化目标。我们利用 2008 年至 2020 年间 1203 家不同公司 15639 个公司年的 Revelio 数据集观察到,披露了多元化目标的公司确实雇佣了更多多元化员工,但这些多元化水平在披露目标之前已经大幅提高。与公布其他类型多元化目标的公司相比,以数字、前瞻性和普通员工为目标的公司与员工多元化程度更高相关。此外,多元化绩效的提高似乎并不以员工素质为代价(以 Revelio 为衡量标准)。总之,我们的研究结果对于投资者和利益相关者如何理解企业多元化目标具有实际意义。
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引用次数: 0
Voluntary disclosures by activist investors: the role of activist expectations* 激进投资者的自愿披露:激进预期的作用*
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09836-6
Ryan McDonough, Venky Nagar, Jordan Schoenfeld

Activist investors in a firm often voluntarily release information about their governance intentions to the public. Voluntary disclosure theory suggests that an activist investor will disclose when she expects other investors to respond positively and support her in upcoming corporate control contests. We find that activists’ disclosures are accompanied by positive abnormal returns, reductions in bid-ask spreads, and increases in future earnings relative to similar targets without voluntary activist disclosures. Disclosures by activists who demand a board seat (the most common demand) have the highest announcement returns, and disclosers also win proxy contests and directorships more frequently than non-disclosers. These findings suggest that the activist’s beliefs about investor response in both pricing and voting are an important driver of her disclosure choice.

公司的激进投资者往往会自愿向公众发布有关其治理意图的信息。自愿披露理论认为,当激进投资者预期其他投资者会积极响应并在即将到来的公司控制权争夺中支持她时,她就会披露信息。我们发现,相对于未自愿披露信息的类似目标公司,激进投资者的信息披露会带来正的异常回报、买卖价差的缩小以及未来收益的增加。要求获得董事会席位(最常见的要求)的激进分子披露信息的公告回报率最高,披露信息的激进分子也比不披露信息的激进分子更频繁地赢得代理权争夺和董事席位。这些研究结果表明,激进分子对投资者在定价和投票两方面反应的看法是其披露选择的重要驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Trump election and minority CEO pessimism 特朗普当选与少数族裔首席执行官的悲观情绪
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09843-7
Xiaoli Hu, Ya Kang, Oliver Zhen Li, Yupeng Lin

Ethnic tension in the United States became more salient after Donald Trump’s election on November 9, 2016. Exploring the variation in management forecasts, we show that after the Trump election, minority CEOs exhibit more pessimism in their earnings forecasts (underestimation of the mean of earnings), compared with their non-minority counterparts. This tendency toward pessimism is observed across CEOs from various minority groups and is particularly pronounced in firms led by less experienced or less confident minority CEOs. Further analyses reveal that minority CEOs make less specific and less precise forecasts. Minority CEO pessimism is not explained by alternative explanations including terrorist attacks and minority CEOs’ political ideology. Collectively, our research provides evidence that the Trump election induces biased beliefs in the form of pessimism in ethnic minority CEOs.

2016 年 11 月 9 日唐纳德-特朗普当选后,美国的种族紧张关系变得更加突出。在探讨管理层预测的差异时,我们发现,特朗普当选后,与非少数族裔的首席执行官相比,少数族裔的首席执行官在盈利预测中表现出更多的悲观情绪(低估盈利均值)。这种悲观倾向在来自不同少数族裔群体的首席执行官身上都能观察到,在由经验较少或信心不足的少数族裔首席执行官领导的公司中尤为明显。进一步的分析表明,少数族裔首席执行官的预测更不具体,也更不精确。少数族裔首席执行官的悲观情绪无法用其他解释(包括恐怖袭击和少数族裔首席执行官的政治意识形态)来解释。总之,我们的研究提供了证据,证明特朗普大选诱发了少数族裔首席执行官悲观主义形式的偏差信念。
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引用次数: 0
Earnings myopia and private equity takeovers 盈利近视与私募股权收购
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09844-6
Paul Hribar, Todd Kravet, Trent Krupa

We examine the role of private equity in alleviating earnings myopia induced by public markets. We first construct a measure of earnings myopia and show that this measure varies as predicted with determinants and effects of myopia. Then we show that public firms exhibiting earnings myopia realize an increased likelihood of takeover by private equity buyers. Cross-sectional analyses indicate that this relation is strongest when costs of earnings myopia are likely higher. Following private equity takeovers, firms exhibiting greater measures of earnings myopia realize improvements to R&D investment and productivity. The results add to the understanding of the role of private equity in identifying and alleviating earnings myopia within U.S. capital markets. This is important given the increasing size of private equity assets under management. Takeover premiums paid for myopic firms suggest a cost of earnings myopia at approximately 6.9% of firm value.

我们研究了私募股权在缓解公开市场导致的收益近视方面的作用。我们首先构建了盈利近视的衡量标准,并证明这一衡量标准随近视的决定因素和影响而变化。然后我们证明,表现出盈利近视的上市公司被私募股权收购者收购的可能性会增加。横截面分析表明,当收益近视的成本可能较高时,这种关系最为密切。私募股权收购后,收益近视程度较高的公司在研发投资和生产率方面都有所改善。这些结果加深了人们对私募股权在识别和缓解美国资本市场盈利近视方面的作用的理解。鉴于私募股权管理的资产规模不断扩大,这一点非常重要。为近视企业支付的收购溢价表明,盈利近视的成本约为企业价值的 6.9%。
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引用次数: 0
Is it all hype? ChatGPT’s performance and disruptive potential in the accounting and auditing industries 都是炒作吗?ChatGPT 在会计和审计行业的表现和颠覆潜力
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09833-9
Marc Eulerich, Aida Sanatizadeh, Hamid Vakilzadeh, David A. Wood

ChatGPT frequently appears in the media, with many predicting significant disruptions, especially in the fields of accounting and auditing. Yet research has demonstrated relatively poor performance of ChatGPT on student assessment questions. We extend this research to examine whether more recent ChatGPT models and capabilities can pass major accounting certification exams including the Certified Public Accountant (CPA), Certified Management Accountant (CMA), Certified Internal Auditor (CIA), and Enrolled Agent (EA) certification exams. We find that the ChatGPT 3.5 model cannot pass any exam (average score across all assessments of 53.1%). However, with additional enhancements, ChatGPT can pass all sections of each tested exam: moving to the ChatGPT 4 model improved scores by an average of 16.5%, providing 10-shot training improved scores an additional 6.6%, and allowing the model to use reasoning and acting (e.g., allow ChatGPT to use a calculator and other resources) improved scores an additional 8.9%. After all these improvements, ChatGPT passed all exams with an average score of 85.1%. This high performance indicates that ChatGPT has sufficient capabilities to disrupt the accounting and auditing industries, which we discuss in detail. This research provides practical insights for accounting professionals, investors, and stakeholders on how to adapt and mitigate the potential harms of this technology in accounting and auditing firms.

ChatGPT 频繁出现在媒体上,许多人预测它将带来巨大的破坏,尤其是在会计和审计领域。然而,研究表明 ChatGPT 在学生评估问题上的表现相对较差。我们扩展了这项研究,考察了最新的 ChatGPT 模型和功能能否通过主要的会计认证考试,包括注册会计师(CPA)、注册管理会计师(CMA)、注册内部审计师(CIA)和注册代理人(EA)认证考试。我们发现 ChatGPT 3.5 模型无法通过任何考试(所有评估的平均得分率为 53.1%)。然而,通过额外的改进,ChatGPT 可以通过每个测试考试的所有部分:转移到 ChatGPT 4 模型后,平均得分提高了 16.5%;提供 10 次训练后,得分提高了 6.6%;允许模型使用推理和行动(例如,允许 ChatGPT 使用计算器和其他资源)后,得分提高了 8.9%。经过所有这些改进后,ChatGPT 以 85.1% 的平均分通过了所有考试。这一优异成绩表明,ChatGPT 有足够的能力颠覆会计和审计行业,我们将对此进行详细讨论。这项研究为会计专业人员、投资者和利益相关者提供了实用的见解,帮助他们了解如何适应和减轻这项技术对会计和审计公司的潜在危害。
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引用次数: 0
Partner wealth and audit quality: evidence from the United States 合伙人财富与审计质量:来自美国的证据
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09828-6
John Xuefeng Jiang, Shaohua He, K. Philip Wang

Using the market values of audit partners’ houses as a measure of their personal wealth, we find that wealthier U.S. partners provide higher-quality audits, as evidenced by fewer material restatements, fewer material SEC comment letters, and higher audit fees. A battery of falsification tests shows that these findings are not driven by the matching of wealthier partners with clients with higher financial reporting quality. Our additional analyses suggest two explanations: greater personal wealth both incentivizes partners to exert more effort in delivering high-quality audits and reveals partners’ audit competence.

利用审计合伙人房屋的市场价值作为其个人财富的衡量标准,我们发现,较富裕的美国合伙人提供的审计质量较高,这体现在较少的重大重述、较少的美国证券交易委员会重大意见函以及较高的审计费用上。一系列的伪造测试表明,这些发现并不是由于较富有的合伙人与财务报告质量较高的客户相匹配所导致的。我们的补充分析提出了两种解释:更多的个人财富既能激励合伙人付出更多努力提供高质量的审计,又能显示出合伙人的审计能力。
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引用次数: 0
Financial information and diverging beliefs 财务信息和不同信仰
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09832-w
Christopher S. Armstrong, Mirko S. Heinle, Irina Luneva

Standard Bayesians’ beliefs converge when they receive the same piece of new information. However, when agents initially disagree and have uncertainty about the precision of a signal, their disagreement might instead increase, despite receiving the same information. We demonstrate that this divergence of beliefs leads to a unimodal effect of the absolute surprise in the signal on trading volume. We show that this prediction is consistent with the empirical evidence using trading volume around earnings announcements of U.S. firms. We find evidence of elevated volume following moderate surprises and depressed volume following more extreme surprises, a pattern that is more pronounced when investors hold more distant prior beliefs and are more uncertain about earnings’ precision. The evidence is consistent with the model where investors disagree about stocks’ expected returns and do not know the precision of earnings as a signal about the firm’s value.

标准贝叶斯主义者在收到同一条新信息时,他们的信念会趋于一致。然而,当代理人最初对信号的精确性存在分歧和不确定性时,尽管收到的信息相同,他们的分歧反而会增加。我们证明,这种信念分歧会导致信号的绝对意外对交易量产生单峰效应。我们利用美国公司盈利公告前后的交易量来证明这一预测与经验证据是一致的。我们发现有证据表明,在中等程度的意外事件发生后,交易量会上升,而在更极端的意外事件发生后,交易量会下降,当投资者持有更遥远的先验信念,对盈利的精确性更不确定时,这种模式会更加明显。这些证据与投资者对股票预期收益存在分歧且不了解作为公司价值信号的盈利精确度的模型是一致的。
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引用次数: 0
Investors’ information acquisition and the manager’s value-risk tradeoff 投资者的信息获取与管理者的价值风险权衡
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09839-3
Hao Xue

This paper studies a model in which investors’ information acquisition and the manager’s investment choice (hence the moments of the firm’s cash flow) are jointly determined. I show that a lower information acquisition cost alters the information environment in a way that motivates the manager to prioritize reducing the variance of cash flow over improving its mean. I present conditions under which a decrease in the cost of information acquisition reduces stock valuations and investors’ welfare. The analysis highlights the importance of considering the joint determination of firm risk in studying investors’ information acquisition. The model’s predictions are relevant to the growing literature that studies technological advancements and regulatory requirements that lower the cost for investors to acquire and process information.

本文研究了一个模型,在该模型中,投资者的信息获取和管理者的投资选择(即公司现金流的时刻)是共同决定的。我的研究表明,信息获取成本的降低会改变信息环境,从而促使经理优先考虑降低现金流的方差,而不是提高其均值。我提出了降低信息获取成本会降低股票估值和投资者福利的条件。分析强调了在研究投资者信息获取时考虑公司风险联合决定的重要性。该模型的预测与研究降低投资者获取和处理信息成本的技术进步和监管要求的日益增多的文献相关。
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引用次数: 0
Market and regulatory implications of social identity cohorts: a discussion of crypto influencers 社会身份群体对市场和监管的影响:关于加密货币影响者的讨论
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-06-17 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09837-5
Alan D. Jagolinzer

Merkley et al. (2023) examine how cryptocurrency influencers recommend digital coins on Twitter (X) and the associated price effects. They report that influencers may exploit market investors via potential pump and dump schemes. While plausible, researchers may develop a broader understanding of influencers’ incentives and their influence by considering how investors engage these markets for social identity needs that enhance utility. Social-psychological research indicates that someone’s social identity strongly influences their behavior, even making the behavior maladaptive. This paper discusses how crypto influencers create social identity resonance. It then discusses how influencers can leverage this resonance for potentially lucrative financial opportunities, which might manifest in different expected crypto price patterns. The paper concludes by recommending more research on influencers’ experience, networks, and communication choices; the effects of video relative to text communication; and implications of social identity cohorts that influence prices and undermine regulatory trust in traditional markets.

Merkley 等人(2023 年)研究了加密货币影响者如何在 Twitter(X)上推荐数字硬币以及相关的价格效应。他们报告说,影响者可能会通过潜在的抽水和抛售计划来剥削市场投资者。虽然有一定的合理性,但研究人员可以通过考虑投资者如何出于提高效用的社会身份需求而参与这些市场,从而对影响者的动机及其影响力有更广泛的了解。社会心理学研究表明,一个人的社会身份会强烈影响其行为,甚至使其行为变得不适应。本文讨论了加密货币影响者如何创造社会认同共鸣。然后,本文讨论了影响者如何利用这种共鸣来获得潜在的有利可图的财务机会,这种机会可能表现为不同的预期加密货币价格模式。最后,本文建议就以下方面开展更多研究:影响者的经验、网络和沟通选择;视频相对于文本沟通的效果;影响价格和破坏传统市场监管信任的社会身份群组的影响。
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引用次数: 0
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Review of Accounting Studies
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