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Accruing career capital: How party leaders with more political experience survive longer 积累职业资本:具有更多政治经验的政党领导人如何生存更长时间
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-06-10 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231170381
Clint Claessen
As some of the most experienced political actors, party leaders usually have extensive careers spanning multiple decades, competencies, and institutions. The literature on party leaders, however, has not yet incorporated the wealth of information that these careers have. Therefore, this article introduces career capital as a new continuous measure of political experience and hypothesizes that more career capital leads to longer tenure. In contrast to findings from previous studies, I show that career capital does contribute to party leaders’ survival in office in several analyses of party leader duration in Canada, Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland in the postwar period (1945–2023). In addition, because career capital is accumulated in three separate institutions, I examine the differences between these descriptively and show in the analysis that especially previous experience in legislative office is conducive for party leaders to remain longer in office. Lastly, the results indicate that the relationship between career capital and party leader duration is non-linear and subject to the effect of attrition, signifying that political experience acquired shortly before entering party leader office is more important for political survival.
作为一些最有经验的政治行动者,政党领导人通常拥有跨越数十年的广泛职业生涯、能力和机构。然而,关于政党领导人的文献还没有包含这些职业所拥有的丰富信息。因此,本文引入职业资本作为一种新的政治经验的连续衡量标准,并假设更多的职业资本会导致更长的任期。与之前的研究结果相反,我在对战后(1945-2023年)加拿大、德国、荷兰和瑞士政党领导人任期的几项分析中表明,职业资本确实有助于政党领导人在任期内的生存。此外,由于职业资本是在三个独立的机构中积累的,我描述性地研究了这三个机构之间的差异,并在分析中表明,特别是以前在立法机构任职的经验有利于政党领导人留任更长时间。最后,研究结果表明,职业资本与政党领导人任期之间的关系是非线性的,并受到损耗的影响,这表明在进入政党领导人办公室前不久获得的政治经验对政治生存更为重要。
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引用次数: 0
Setting up institutions in multilevel states: Assemblies, parties, and the selection of candidates 在多层级州建立机构:议会、政党和候选人的选举
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-06-07 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231180716
Patrícia Calca, Teresa Ruel
Institutional configurations in multilevel states create tensions in political decision-making processes resulting from constitutional decisions. Often, these decisions affect party competition, e.g., a member of the parliament (MP) may be legally bound to represent they constituency or the entire territory yet be elected regionally. In these settings parties place their members in additional positions thereby gaining advantage. Does former experience as a regional MP increase the probability of becoming a national MP? We expect that MP candidates from regional constituencies are more likely to have legislative experience in the regional assembly. We test our expectations with novel data from Portugal and demonstrate that candidates who were regional MPs are more likely to be in eligible positions and to take office. Conversely, former regional government members (elected officials) have a negative likelihood of becoming a national MP.
多层次国家的制度配置在宪法决定的政治决策过程中造成紧张。通常,这些决定会影响政党竞争,例如,国会议员(MP)可能在法律上有义务代表他们的选区或整个领土,但却在地区选举中当选。在这种情况下,各方将其成员置于额外的位置,从而获得优势。以前作为地区议员的经历会增加成为国家议员的可能性吗?我们预计,来自地区选区的议员候选人更有可能在地区议会有立法经验。我们用来自葡萄牙的新数据测试了我们的预期,并证明地区议员的候选人更有可能获得合格的职位并就职。相反,前地方政府成员(民选官员)成为国家议员的可能性为负。
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引用次数: 0
Delayed shock? How Brexit conditioned campaign effects in British general elections 延迟休克?脱欧对英国大选的影响
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-30 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231168583
J. Fisher, E. Fieldhouse, D. Cutts
The impact of campaigns on electoral performance is conditioned in part by contextual effects. The popularity equilibrium model has proven to be an important guide to how the electoral effects of local campaigns vary by a party’s existing level of popularity. Such an equilibrium can, however be disturbed by an electoral shock—a rare event which fundamentally challenges the foundations that underpin predictability in elections. This article analyses the impact of the electoral shock of the UK’s 2016 referendum on EU membership on campaign effects in the subsequent elections of 2017 and 2019. Using a novel theoretical and methodological approach, it shows that while there were observable effects of the Leave vote already present before the referendum, the geography of the effectiveness of Labour and Conservative local campaigns was altered after the referendum. However, it was not until the 2019 election that the shock of the 2016 Leave vote became a particularly important predictor of the electoral efficacy of both parties’ campaigns.
竞选活动对选举表现的影响在一定程度上取决于背景效应。民意均衡模型已被证明是一个重要的指南,可以指导地方竞选的选举效果如何因政党现有的民意水平而变化。然而,这种平衡可能会受到选举冲击的干扰——这是一种罕见的事件,从根本上挑战了选举可预测性的基础。本文分析了英国2016年欧盟成员国公投的选举冲击对随后2017年和2019年选举的竞选效果的影响。使用一种新颖的理论和方法论方法,它表明,虽然脱欧投票在公投前就已经产生了明显的影响,但工党和保守党地方竞选活动的有效性在公投后发生了变化。然而,直到2019年大选,2016年脱欧投票的冲击才成为两党竞选活动选举效果的一个特别重要的预测因素。
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引用次数: 0
Personalization at different levels: Intra-party competition and preference voting in local elections 不同层次的个性化:地方选举中的党内竞争与偏好投票
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231179023
Bram Wauters
Personalization refers to a shift over time in attention and/or power from collective actors to individuals. I focus on personalization in voting behavior, measured by the use of preference voting in flexible list-PR systems. I will argue that in a multi-level context this kind of personalization can take place at different policy levels, which could influence each other. In local elections, voters can be attracted by the mayor and/or other local figureheads, but also by the national party leader and/or national politicians figuring on the local list. Therefore, scholars should not only focus on the number and importance of people to which personalization applies (‘person level’ of personalization), but also on how processes at one policy level impact on other policy levels (‘territorial level’ of personalization). By combining literature on intra-party competition and personalization on the one hand, and on electoral patterns in multi-level states on the other, I engage in a conceptual discussion about the nature of personalization. I add empirical evidence to this conceptual discussion by analyzing preference voting patterns in local elections in Flanders (Belgium). As such, we gain more insights in the remarkable decline of preference voting that took place there.
个性化是指随着时间的推移,注意力和/或权力从集体行为者向个人的转移。我关注的是投票行为的个性化,通过在灵活的列表pr系统中使用偏好投票来衡量。我认为,在多层次的背景下,这种个性化可以发生在不同的政策层面,这可能会相互影响。在地方选举中,选民可以被市长和/或其他地方有名无实的领导人吸引,但也可以被地方名单上的国家政党领袖和/或国家政治家吸引。因此,学者们不仅应该关注个性化适用的人数和重要性(个性化的“个人层面”),还应该关注一个政策层面的过程如何影响其他政策层面(个性化的“领土层面”)。通过结合关于党内竞争和个性化的文献,以及关于多层次州选举模式的文献,我对个性化的本质进行了概念性的讨论。我通过分析佛兰德斯(比利时)地方选举中的偏好投票模式,为这一概念讨论添加了经验证据。因此,我们对在那里发生的偏好投票的显著下降有了更多的了解。
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引用次数: 0
Candidate visibility, voter knowledge, and the incumbency advantage in preferential-list PR 候选人知名度、选民知识和在职者在优先名单公关中的优势
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231178265
Thomas Bräuninger, T. Däubler, J. Pilet
Our knowledge about how voters decide which candidate(s) to vote for under preferential-list proportional representation (PLPR) systems remains limited. In particular, it is debated whether incumbent MPs enjoy an electoral advantage over outsiders also under PLPR. We argue that such an incumbency advantage critically depends on candidate visibility (in the media) and differs across voters with varying levels of political knowledge. Our empirical analysis combines candidate information with rich individual-level voting data collected via “mock ballots” in the 2014 Belgian PartiRep election study. We show that the vote premium linked to incumbency increases with increasing media visibility, and while high-visibility incumbents outperform incumbents among the entire electorate, low-visibility incumbents enjoy an advantage only among knowledgeable voters. The results contribute to a better understanding of candidate voting and the incumbency advantage in PLPR. They also have implications for campaign strategies and the regulation of media access.
我们对选民如何决定在优惠名单比例代表制下投票给哪位候选人的了解仍然有限。尤其值得讨论的是,在PLPR下,现任议员是否比外部议员享有选举优势。我们认为,这种在位优势主要取决于候选人(在媒体上)的知名度,并且在不同政治知识水平的选民中有所不同。我们的实证分析将候选人信息与2014年比利时政党代表选举研究中通过“模拟投票”收集的丰富的个人投票数据相结合。我们的研究表明,随着媒体知名度的提高,与现任相关的投票溢价也会增加,而在整个选民中,高知名度的现任者表现优于现任者,而低知名度的现任者仅在知识渊博的选民中享有优势。研究结果有助于更好地理解候选人投票和执政优势。它们还对竞选策略和媒体访问的监管产生影响。
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引用次数: 0
Social democratic party positions on the EU: The case of Brexit 社会民主党对欧盟的立场:以英国脱欧为例
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231177557
Phil Swatton
In recent years, social democratic parties have been confronted with the rise of second dimension issues. These issues often see social democratic parties facing a choice between competing portions of their own electorate. A particularly prominent second dimension issue is that of the EU: should social democratic parties take pro or anti-EU positions? I look at the case of the UK as an instructive example of this debate. I estimate a narrow counterfactual, simulating how the Labour Party’s vote share and seat count would have changed as its position on Brexit changes. I call this counterfactual narrow because I only consider the effect of these position changes on vote choice and turnout; and not any broader consequences. I run two simulations to compare the implications of pure proximity and proximity-categorisation models of vote choice. I generate seat predictions from the simulation results by using Uniform National Swing and Uniform Regional Swing. Broadly, I find that being pro-Remain clearly benefited the party in terms of votes, but that results are more mixed in terms of seats.
近年来,社会民主党面临着二次元问题的兴起。在这些问题上,社会民主党往往面临着在各自选民中相互竞争的选择。一个特别突出的二次元问题是欧盟问题:社会民主党应该采取支持还是反对欧盟的立场?在这场辩论中,我把英国的例子视为一个有益的例子。我估计了一个狭隘的反事实,模拟工党的选票份额和席位数量会如何随着其在英国退欧问题上的立场变化而变化。我称之为反事实狭隘,因为我只考虑了这些立场变化对投票选择和投票率的影响;而不是更广泛的后果。我运行了两个模拟来比较纯接近和接近分类模型对投票选择的影响。我通过使用统一的全国摇摆和统一的地区摇摆从模拟结果中生成席位预测。总的来说,我发现,就选票而言,支持留欧显然有利于该党,但就席位而言,结果则更为复杂。
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引用次数: 0
The psychological partisan effect of electoral systems: How ideology correlates with strategic voting 选举制度的心理党派效应:意识形态如何与策略性投票相关联
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-22 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231176975
Damien Bol, A. Hunter, Gabriela Aguirre Fernandez
Districted proportional systems give an edge to right-wing parties that are more popular in rural areas where district magnitude is small and large parties are mechanically advantaged. In this paper, we explore the role played by voters in this bias by looking at how ideology correlates with strategic voting. We analyze survey data from 44 elections in Western Europe and find that left-wing voters are more likely to support a party that is not viable ( p < 0.01), but once in this position they seem less likely to desert this party for one that is viable ( p < 0.1). Further, we find that this pattern is likely driven by the intensity of partisan preferences as left-wing voters are on average more attached to their favorite party and thus more reluctant to desert it ( p < 0.01). Our study thus demonstrates that the psychological effect of districted proportional systems amplifies the mechanical one in advanced industrial democracies.
分区比例制为右翼政党提供了优势,这些政党在农村地区更受欢迎,因为在农村地区,分区规模较小,大政党在机械上处于优势。在这篇论文中,我们通过观察意识形态如何与战略投票相关来探讨选民在这种偏见中所扮演的角色。我们分析了西欧44次选举的调查数据,发现左翼选民更有可能支持一个不可行的政党(p<0.01),但一旦处于这种地位,他们似乎就不太可能抛弃这个政党,转而支持一个可行的政党,我们发现,这种模式可能是由党派偏好的强度驱动的,因为左翼选民平均更倾向于他们最喜欢的政党,因此更不愿意放弃它(p<0.01)。因此,我们的研究表明,分区比例制度的心理影响放大了先进工业民主国家的机械影响。
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引用次数: 1
Trajectories of the personal vote under open-list proportional representation: Evidence from Finland, 1999–2019 公开名单比例代表制下个人投票的轨迹:来自芬兰的证据,1999-2009
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-22 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231177558
Peter Söderlund, Åsa von Schoultz
Little research has focused on how legislative candidates’ personal electoral support develops over time and why. This study examines the vote trajectories of individual candidates and how they vary according to candidates’ personal vote-earning attributes. Longitudinal data on over 1700 candidates who between 1999 and 2019 participated in two or more parliamentary elections in the Finnish open-list proportional representation system are analysed. The findings show that the average legislative candidate’s personal support increases more rapidly in the beginning of his or her electoral career and then slows down gradually over time. However, there is large heterogeneity in vote trajectories depending on candidates’ socio-demographic characteristics and personal vote-earning attributes. Some candidates enjoy instant success (local councillors and celebrity candidates), others do not win more votes initially but manage to build loyal personal followings in their district and receive positive returns from repeated candidacy (young, women, and locally rooted candidates).
很少有研究关注立法候选人的个人选举支持是如何随着时间的推移而发展的以及为什么。这项研究考察了个别候选人的投票轨迹,以及它们如何根据候选人的个人投票属性而变化。分析了1999年至2019年间在芬兰公开名单比例代表制中参加两次或两次以上议会选举的1700多名候选人的纵向数据。调查结果显示,普通立法候选人的个人支持率在其选举生涯开始时增长更快,然后随着时间的推移逐渐放缓。然而,根据候选人的社会人口特征和个人选票收入属性,选票轨迹存在很大的异质性。一些候选人获得了立竿见影的成功(地方议员和名人候选人),另一些候选人最初并没有赢得更多的选票,但成功地在自己的选区建立了忠实的个人追随者,并从反复的候选人资格中获得了积极的回报(年轻人、女性和植根于当地的候选人)。
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引用次数: 0
A multi-stage and multi-actor perspective on intra-party competition: Introduction to the symposium 党内竞争的多阶段、多主体视角:研讨会简介
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-18 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231174172
Gert-Jan Put, H. Coffé
In contemporary representative democracies, political competition is not only taking place between political parties but also within parties. Hitherto, research on such intra-party competition has been mostly focused on the electoral dimension, mainly looking at the distribution of preference votes among co-partisans running on the same party list. In this introduction to our symposium on intra-party competition, we argue that intra-party competition occurs in other stages of the electoral cycle than elections and involves the strategic behaviour of more actors than electoral candidates. We present an original conceptual model that introduces a multi-stage and multi-actor perspective on intra-party competition, including three stages (the nomination stage, the electoral stage and the post-electoral stage) and three key actors (voters, politicians and parties). Based on our novel conceptual model, we provide examples of strategic behaviour of each actor in each of the stages. We further introduce each contribution of this symposium and present how each contribution relates to our multi-stage and multi-actor model of intra-party competition.
在当代代议制民主国家,政治竞争不仅发生在政党之间,也发生在政党内部。到目前为止,对这种党内竞争的研究主要集中在选举层面,主要关注在同一政党名单上竞选的两党人士之间的偏好选票分布。在我们关于党内竞争的研讨会的介绍中,我们认为,党内竞争发生在选举周期的其他阶段,而不是选举,并且涉及比选举候选人更多的行为者的战略行为。我们提出了一个原始的概念模型,该模型引入了对党内竞争的多阶段和多参与者视角,包括三个阶段(提名阶段、选举阶段和选举后阶段)和三个关键参与者(选民、政治家和政党)。基于我们新颖的概念模型,我们提供了每个阶段中每个参与者的战略行为示例。我们进一步介绍了本次研讨会的每一项贡献,并介绍了每一项成就与我们的多阶段、多参与者党内竞争模式之间的关系。
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引用次数: 0
The why of candidate selection. How party selectors handle trade-offs between party goals 为什么选择候选人。政党选择者如何处理政党目标之间的权衡
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-05-17 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231174813
Audrey Vandeleene
While the knowledge on how candidate selection happens is flourishing, remarkably little attention has been paid to the selection criteria. Why do selectors prefer some candidates? This study investigates the intricated trade-offs party selectors face when having to compromise between the pursuit of three core party goals: unity, policy, and victory. When candidates score lower on one goal, do selectors favour candidates following the party line, skilled for politics or able to garner votes? Relying on 23 in-depth interviews with party selectors from three Belgian francophone parties (Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals), this research offers insight into how selectors balance their choices between candidates in a PR list context where the group equilibrium is almost as important as individual assets. I point out the interconnections selectors consider between selection criteria, and hence the need to regard the full picture instead of criteria on their own when studying intra-party competition at the nomination stage.
虽然关于候选人选拔如何进行的知识正在蓬勃发展,但对选拔标准的关注却少得可怜。为什么选拔人员更喜欢某些候选人?这项研究调查了政党选择者在追求三个核心政党目标(团结、政策和胜利)之间妥协时所面临的复杂权衡。当候选人在一个进球上得分较低时,选拔人员是否青睐遵循党派路线、精通政治或能够获得选票的候选人?这项研究对来自三个比利时法语政党(社会民主党、绿党和自由党)的政党选拔人员进行了23次深入采访,深入了解了选拔人员如何在公关名单背景下平衡候选人之间的选择,在这种背景下,群体平衡几乎与个人资产一样重要。我指出,选拔人员考虑的是选拔标准之间的相互联系,因此,在提名阶段研究党内竞争时,需要全面考虑,而不是单独考虑标准。
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引用次数: 0
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Party Politics
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