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Educational field, economic uncertainty, and fertility decline in Finland in 2010–2019 2010-2019 年芬兰的教育领域、经济不确定性和生育率下降
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcae001
Julia Hellstrand, Jessica Nisén, Mikko Myrskylä
Fertility declined sharply and unexpectedly in Finland in the 2010s across educational levels. Using Finnish register data, we calculated total fertility rates (TFRs) and the proportion of women expected to have a first birth in 2010–2019 for 153 educational groups—reflecting field and level—and estimated how the characteristics of a group predicted its decline. As the educational field predicts factors related to economic uncertainty, heterogeneity in fertility decline across fields could shed light on the role of economic uncertainty behind the recent fertility decline. In general, women with the highest initial fertility levels (health, welfare, and education) and women in agriculture experienced weaker fertility declines (around −20% or less), while women with the lowest initial levels (ICT, arts and humanities) experienced stronger declines (around −40% or more). The extent of the fertility decline increased with higher unemployment and lower income levels in the field and with a lower share employed in the public sector. These uncertainty measures together explained one-fourth of the decline in TFR and two-fifths of the decline in first births. The results imply that fertility declined across all groups, but those with stable job prospects escaped very strong declines. Objective economic uncertainty is one aspect that mattered for the recent fertility decline.
2010年代,芬兰不同教育水平的生育率出人意料地急剧下降。利用芬兰的登记数据,我们计算了153个教育组别(反映了教育领域和教育水平)的总和生育率(TFRs)以及预计在2010-2019年生育第一胎的女性比例,并估算了组别特征如何预测生育率的下降。由于教育领域可以预测与经济不确定性相关的因素,因此不同领域生育率下降的异质性可以揭示近期生育率下降背后经济不确定性的作用。一般来说,初始生育率水平最高的妇女(卫生、福利和教育)和农业妇女的生育率下降幅度较小(约-20%或更小),而初始生育率水平最低的妇女(信息和通信技术、艺术和人文学科)的生育率下降幅度较大(约-40%或更多)。生育率下降的程度随着该领域失业率的升高和收入水平的降低以及公共部门就业比例的降低而增加。这些不确定性措施共同解释了总和生育率下降的四分之一和头胎出生率下降的五分之二。结果表明,所有群体的生育率都下降了,但那些工作前景稳定的群体的生育率下降幅度非常大。客观经济不确定性是近期生育率下降的一个重要方面。
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引用次数: 0
Welfare state policy and educational inequality: a cross-national multicohort study 福利国家政策与教育不平等:一项跨国多队列研究
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcae003
Kevin Schoenholzer, Kaspar Burger
Proponents of welfare policy have argued that publicly funded early childhood education and care (ECEC), paid parental leave, and family benefits spending can weaken the influence of social background on educational outcomes by providing a supplementary source of early investment that particularly benefits disadvantaged families. We analyze whether the welfare state context in which children spend their early childhood (ages 0–5) moderates the association between parental educational attainment and the child’s educational achievement at age 10. We combine data from two large-scale international student assessments with data about welfare state policies. Results from multilevel models show that countries with higher public ECEC spending and higher family benefits spending exhibited a weaker association between parental education and student math achievement. Countries with longer parental leave exhibited a stronger association between parental education and student math, science, and reading achievement. Findings provide evidence of the mixed role of welfare state policies for social inequality in student achievement.
福利政策的支持者们认为,政府资助的幼儿教育和保育(ECEC)、带薪育儿假和家庭福利支出可以通过提供早期投资的补充来源来削弱社会背景对教育结果的影响,尤其有利于弱势家庭。我们分析了儿童在幼儿期(0-5 岁)所处的福利国家环境是否会调节父母教育程度与儿童 10 岁时教育成就之间的关系。我们将两项大规模国际学生评估的数据与福利国家政策的数据相结合。多层次模型的结果显示,公共幼儿保育和教育支出较高和家庭福利支出较高的国家,其父母教育程度与学生数学成绩之间的关联较弱。育儿假时间较长的国家,其父母教育与学生数学、科学和阅读成绩之间的联系较强。研究结果证明,福利国家政策对学生成绩中的社会不平等所起的作用好坏参半。
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引用次数: 0
Does information reduce interpersonal violence? Evidence from prisons 信息能减少人际暴力吗?来自监狱的证据
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-11 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad079
Aron Szekely
Why does interpersonal violence erupt? A key source is conflict over resources and a little-studied mechanism for solving such cases concerns the availability of credible information about individuals’ abilities and willingness to use force. Its core prediction is that when such credible information abounds, the outcome of a potential struggle can be anticipated and thus there is no need to fight. I test this prediction using a nationally representative survey of male prisoners (Ninmates = 10,768, Nfacilities = 207) incarcerated in US state correctional facilities. I also make two methodologically orientated contributions. First, recent research highlights the important consequences that data analysis choices can have in determining quantitative findings. To overcome this, I draw on multiverse analysis and specification curve analysis to map out the key analytical decisions I make and run 262,144 plausible regression models. By doing so, I classify associations that are robust, mixed, or entirely frail according to analytic decisions and find partial support for the informational mechanism of interpersonal violence. Second, in contrast to much quantitative prison research, which uses only official or institutionally punished assaults data, I compare self-recognized fights to self-reported institutionally punished fights and highlight key differences.
为什么会爆发人际暴力?一个关键的原因是资源冲突,而解决此类案件的一个鲜有研究的机制是关于个人使用武力的能力和意愿的可信信息。其核心预测是,当这种可信信息充斥时,潜在斗争的结果就可以预见,因此就没有必要争斗。我通过对美国各州惩教机构中的男性囚犯(Ninmates = 10,768, Nfacilities = 207)进行全国代表性调查来验证这一预测。我还在方法论上做出了两点贡献。首先,最近的研究强调了数据分析选择对定量研究结果的重要影响。为了克服这一问题,我借鉴了多元宇宙分析和规格曲线分析,绘制出我所做的关键分析决策,并运行了 262,144 个可信的回归模型。通过这样做,我根据分析决策对稳健、混合或完全脆弱的关联进行了分类,并发现了对人际暴力信息机制的部分支持。其次,与许多监狱定量研究只使用官方或机构处罚的攻击数据不同,我将自我承认的打架斗殴与自我报告的机构处罚的打架斗殴进行了比较,并突出了两者之间的主要差异。
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引用次数: 0
Correction to: Birth cohort changes in fertility ideals: evidence from repeated cross-sectional surveys in Finland 更正:生育理想的出生队列变化:来自芬兰重复横截面调查的证据
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-23 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad080
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引用次数: 0
Pathways to prosocial leadership: an online experiment on the effects of external subsidies and the relative price of giving 亲社会领导力的途径:关于外部补贴和捐赠相对价格影响的在线实验
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad078
Blaine Robbins, Daniel Karell, Simon Siegenthaler, Aaron Kamm
Leaders are a part of virtually every group and organization, and while they help solve the various collective action problems that groups face, they can also be unprincipled and incompetent, pursuing their own interests over those of the group. What types of circumstances foster prosocial leadership and motivate leaders to pursue group interests? In a modified dictator game (N = 798), we examine the effects of piece-rate subsidies (or pay per unit of work performed) and the relative price of giving (or the size of the benefit to others for giving) on prosocial behaviour and norms about giving. We find that subsidies increase giving by leaders, that the relative price of giving is unrelated to prosocial behaviour, and that neither affects norms about giving. Furthermore, the introduction and removal of a subsidy do not undermine giving over time. Our results imply that subsidies increase group welfare by motivating leaders to allocate a larger share of resources to group members.
领导者几乎是每个团体和组织的一部分,他们在帮助解决团体面临的各种集体行动问题的同时,也可能无原则、不称职,追求自身利益而非团体利益。什么样的情况会促进亲社会领导力并促使领导者追求群体利益呢?在一个改良的独裁者博弈(N = 798)中,我们研究了计件补贴(或每单位工作的报酬)和给予的相对价格(或给予他人利益的大小)对亲社会行为和给予规范的影响。我们发现,补贴会增加领导者的捐赠,而捐赠的相对价格与亲社会行为无关,两者都不会影响捐赠规范。此外,随着时间的推移,补贴的引入和取消都不会削弱捐赠行为。我们的研究结果表明,补贴可以激励领导者将更多的资源分配给群体成员,从而增加群体福利。
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引用次数: 0
Children’s aspirations, their perceptions of parental aspirations, and parents’ factual aspirations—gaining insights into a complex world of interdependencies 儿童的愿望、他们对父母愿望的看法以及父母的实际愿望--洞察相互依存的复杂世界
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-10 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad074
Kerstin Schörner, Felix Bittmann
Children’s educational aspirations have been shown to be highly relevant for their educational trajectories and, therefore, researchers have tried to understand how and when these aspirations are formed. The influence of parental aspirations on the development of children’s aspirations has often been the focus of such investigations in previous studies. Going beyond these earlier approaches, we address the question of how children’s aspirations might be influential for their parent’s aspirations. We also investigate if it is children’s perception of parental aspirations or parent’s factual aspirations, which play a role in the formation of children’s aspirations. This article contributes to the literature, first, on a theoretical basis, by providing a reasoned and interdisciplinary framework about mutually dependent processes of aspiration formations within families. Second, an empirical contribution is given, using data from the German National Educational Panel Study and analyzing the aspirations of 4,511 children and their parents. Our cross-lagged panel models show that children and parents influence each other in their aspirations mutually over time, with children being affected by both, the parent’s factual aspirations and the children’s perception of those. We give empirical-driven guidelines for future research on aspiration formation.
儿童的教育愿望已被证明与他们的教育轨迹高度相关,因此,研究人员一直试图了解这些愿望是如何以及何时形成的。在以往的研究中,父母的愿望对儿童愿望形成的影响往往是此类调查的重点。在这些早期研究方法的基础上,我们探讨了子女的愿望如何影响父母愿望的问题。我们还调查了是子女对父母愿望的感知还是父母的实际愿望在子女愿望的形成过程中起了作用。本文首先在理论基础上对相关文献做出了贡献,提供了一个关于家庭中相互依赖的愿望形成过程的合理的跨学科框架。其次,本文利用德国国家教育面板研究的数据,分析了 4511 名儿童及其父母的愿望,为实证研究做出了贡献。我们的跨滞后面板模型显示,随着时间的推移,子女和父母的愿望会相互影响,子女会同时受到父母的实际愿望和子女对这些愿望的看法的影响。我们根据经验为未来的愿望形成研究提供了指导。
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引用次数: 0
Two pandemic years greatly reduced young people’s life satisfaction: evidence from a comparison with pre-COVID-19 panel data 两个大流行年份大大降低了年轻人的生活满意度:来自与covid -19前小组数据比较的证据
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad077
Martin Neugebauer, Alexander Patzina, Hans Dietrich, Malte Sandner
How much did young people suffer from the COVID-19 pandemic? A growing number of studies address this question, but they often lack a comparison group that was unaffected by the pandemic, and the observation window is usually short. Here, we compared the 2-year development of life satisfaction of German high school students during COVID-19 (N = 2,698) with the development in prepandemic cohorts (N = 4,834) with a difference-in-differences design. We found a decline in life satisfaction in winter 2020/2021 (Cohen’s d = -0.40) that was approximately three times stronger than that in the general population and persisted until winter 2021/2022. Young people found some restrictions particularly burdensome, especially travel restrictions, bans on cultural events, and the closure of bars/clubs.
年轻人在COVID-19大流行中遭受了多大的痛苦?越来越多的研究解决了这个问题,但它们往往缺乏不受大流行影响的对照组,而且观察窗口通常很短。在这里,我们比较了德国高中生在COVID-19期间(N = 2698)的2年生活满意度发展与大流行前队列(N = 4834)的发展,采用差异中差异设计。我们发现,在2020/2021年冬季,生活满意度的下降(科恩d = -0.40)大约是普通人群的三倍,并持续到2021/2022年冬季。年轻人发现一些限制特别繁重,特别是旅行限制、禁止文化活动和关闭酒吧/俱乐部。
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引用次数: 0
Temporary employment and wage inequality over the life course 一生中的临时就业和工资不平等
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-27 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad075
Christoph Janietz, Thijs Bol, Bram Lancee
Wage inequality between workers with different levels of educational attainment has been shown to increase over the life course. In this study, we investigate to what extent this growth is explained by temporary employment. Using linked employer-employee register data from the Netherlands, we follow the labour market careers of workers born in 1979. We decompose the impact of temporary employment on the change in the wage gap over the life course into two distinct components: (i) changes in group-specific temporary employment rates (risk) and (ii) changes in group-specific effects of temporary employment on wages (vulnerability). In line with previous research, we find a marked growth of the educational wage gap over the life course in the Netherlands. While group differences in temporary employment risk changed throughout the observation period to the detriment of less-educated workers, group differences in vulnerability to temporary employment diverged specifically during the early life course. Overall, temporary employment explains around 9 per cent of the change in the wage gap between workers with different levels of educational attainment by the age of 38 relative to age 28.
研究表明,受教育程度不同的工人之间的工资不平等在一生中会加剧。在这项研究中,我们调查了这种增长在多大程度上可以用临时就业来解释。我们使用来自荷兰的关联雇主-雇员登记数据,跟踪了1979年出生的工人的劳动力市场职业生涯。我们将临时就业对一生中工资差距变化的影响分解为两个不同的组成部分:(i)特定群体临时就业率的变化(风险)和(ii)临时就业对工资的特定群体影响的变化(脆弱性)。与之前的研究一致,我们发现在荷兰,教育工资差距在整个生命过程中都有显著的增长。虽然在整个观察期间,受教育程度较低的工人在临时就业风险方面的群体差异发生了变化,但在生命早期阶段,临时就业脆弱性方面的群体差异出现了明显差异。总体而言,38岁时受教育程度不同的工人与28岁工人之间工资差距的变化中,约9%是临时就业造成的。
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引用次数: 0
The temporal dimension of parental employment: Temporary contracts, non-standard work schedules, and children’s education in Germany 父母就业的时间维度:德国的临时合同、非标准工作时间表和儿童教育
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-24 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad073
Bastian A Betthäuser, Nhat An Trinh, Anette Eva Fasang
The increasing prevalence of non-standard work and its adverse consequences are well documented. However, we still know little about how common non-standard work is amongst parents, and whether its negative consequences are further transmitted to their children. Using data from the German Microcensus, we document the prevalence and concentration of temporary employment and non-standard work schedules in households with children in Germany. Second, we examine the extent to which variation in this temporal dimension of parental employment is associated with children’s school track. Results show that in about half of all German households with children in lower-secondary school at least one parent has a temporary contract or regularly works evenings or Saturdays. We find that children whose mother always works evenings or Saturdays are substantially less likely to transition to the academic school track. By contrast, we find no significant association between fathers’ non-standard work schedules and children’s school track. We also find no evidence of an association between parents’ temporary employment and children’s school track placement. These divergent findings highlight the importance of disaggregating non-standard work into its specific components and differentiating between mothers' and fathers' non-standard work when investigating the consequences of parental non-standard work for children’s educational and life chances.
越来越普遍的非标准工作及其不良后果是有据可查的。然而,我们仍然不知道在父母中有多普遍的非标准工作,以及它的负面影响是否会进一步传递给他们的孩子。使用来自德国微观人口普查的数据,我们记录了德国有孩子的家庭中临时就业和非标准工作时间表的普遍性和集中度。其次,我们研究了父母就业这一时间维度的变化与孩子上学轨迹的关联程度。结果显示,在所有有孩子上初中的德国家庭中,大约有一半的家庭至少有一位父母有临时合同或经常在晚上或周六工作。我们发现,母亲总是在晚上或周六工作的孩子,基本上不太可能过渡到学术学校的轨道。相比之下,我们发现父亲的非标准工作时间表与孩子的学业轨迹之间没有显著的关联。我们也发现没有证据表明父母的临时工作和孩子的学校轨道安置之间存在关联。这些不同的发现强调了在调查父母的非标准工作对孩子的教育和生活机会的影响时,将非标准工作分解为其特定组成部分和区分母亲和父亲的非标准工作的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Populist partner: the influence of partner characteristics on populist radical right voting 民粹主义伙伴:伙伴特征对民粹主义极右翼投票的影响
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-15 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad072
Take Sipma, Marcel Lubbers, Niels Spierings
In this study, the role of the partner’s self-assessed socio-economic status and political attitudes on populist radical right voting is studied. We made use of a survey among the adult Dutch population (the LISS panel), with information on the self-assessed occupational class, education and political preferences of both partners in cohabiting heterosexual couples. Our results show that, next to the more often found effect of one’s own socio-economic status, the lower the self-assessed occupational class and educational level of the partner, the more likely one is to vote for the PVV, a Dutch populist radical right party. Whereas previous literature has shown that partner’s socio-economic status affects voting behaviour through economic policy preferences, we show the partner’s self-assessed position, for both men and women, is also relevant in explaining behaviour via other political attitudes, such as anti-immigration views. Regardless of one’s own political attitudes, the attitudes of the partner affect one’s likelihood to vote for the populist radical right. With this study, we thus show that including partner characteristics provides further insight into the role of occupation, education, gender, and political attitudes in populist radical right voting, providing evidence of the importance of people’s strong ties in voting behaviour outcomes.
在本研究中,研究了合作伙伴自我评估的社会经济地位和政治态度对民粹主义极右翼投票的作用。我们在荷兰成年人口中进行了一项调查(LISS小组),其中包含了同居异性恋夫妇双方自我评估的职业等级、教育和政治偏好的信息。我们的研究结果显示,除了自身社会经济地位的影响之外,伴侣自我评估的职业等级和教育水平越低,就越有可能投票给荷兰民粹主义极右翼政党PVV。鉴于之前的文献表明,伴侣的社会经济地位通过经济政策偏好影响投票行为,我们展示了伴侣的自我评估地位,对于男性和女性来说,也与通过其他政治态度(如反移民观点)解释行为有关。不管你自己的政治态度如何,伴侣的态度都会影响你投票给民粹主义极右翼的可能性。因此,通过这项研究,我们表明,包括伴侣特征可以进一步了解职业、教育、性别和政治态度在民粹主义激进右翼投票中的作用,为人们的强关系在投票行为结果中的重要性提供了证据。
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引用次数: 0
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European Sociological Review
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