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Not Cologne but the data collection (might have) changed everything: a cautionary tale on ignoring changes in data recording in sociological research 不是科隆,而是数据收集(可能)改变了一切:这是一个关于忽视社会学研究中数据记录变化的警示故事
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcac057
Nicole Schwitter, Ulf Liebe
Abstract In his 2020 ESR article, Arun Frey analysed data on ethnic violence that he web-scraped from a chronicle of hostile incidents against refugees, published by a German charitable foundation and a non-profit organization. He finds remarkable and supposedly causal effects of the New Year’s Eve sexual assaults in 2015/2016 on anti-refugee violence. We argue that it is invalid to draw conclusions regarding the effects of the New Year’s Eve event due to simultaneous alterations in the way the data have been collected. We review the changes in data reporting which took place at the beginning of 2016 on the level of the German government and discuss the lack of a remarkable New Year’s effect when focussing on data which has not been affected by these changes. This casts doubt on the previous findings proposed by Frey (2020). We conclude with a general word of caution.
在他的2020年ESR文章中,Arun Frey分析了他从德国慈善基金会和一家非营利组织出版的针对难民的敌对事件编年史中抓取的种族暴力数据。他发现2015/2016年的跨年夜性侵犯对反难民暴力产生了显著的、据称是因果关系的影响。我们认为,由于数据收集方式的同时改变,得出关于新年前夜事件影响的结论是无效的。我们回顾了2016年初德国政府层面数据报告的变化,并讨论了在关注未受这些变化影响的数据时缺乏显著的新年效应。这使人们对Frey(2020)之前提出的研究结果产生了怀疑。最后,我们要提出一般性的警告。
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引用次数: 1
On the effect of the New Year’s Eve sexual assaults on anti-refugee violence: a rejoinder to Schwitter and Liebe (2023) 论跨年夜性侵对反难民暴力的影响:对Schwitter和Liebe(2023)的回应
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad050
Arun Frey
Abstract In their comment on my 2020 ESR article, Schwitter and Liebe suggest that the increase in anti-refugee attacks following the 2015 New Year’s Eve sexual assaults (NYE) could be due to a simultaneous broadening of the German Federal Criminal Police Office definition of anti-refugee violence. I address Schwitter and Liebe’s concerns by (i) removing attacks that were included because of the new definition and (ii) restricting the analysis to attacks that were sourced from non-governmental sources. In both cases, the NYE event continues to have a profound effect on anti-refugee attacks, but the revised estimates are smaller than those reported in the original study: for example, in this analysis, the probability of an attack more than doubles in the first week of January 2016, as opposed to tripling in the original study. In line with the original findings, the impact of the NYE event is also more pronounced in districts with low prior levels of anti-refugee hostility.
在他们对我2020年ESR文章的评论中,Schwitter和Liebe认为,2015年新年前夜性侵犯(NYE)之后反难民袭击的增加可能是由于德国联邦刑事警察局对反难民暴力的定义同时扩大。我通过以下方式解决Schwitter和Liebe的担忧:(I)删除因新定义而纳入的攻击,(ii)将分析限制在来自非政府来源的攻击。在这两种情况下,新年事件继续对反难民袭击产生深远影响,但修订后的估计比原始研究报告的估计要小:例如,在这项分析中,2016年1月第一周发生袭击的可能性增加了一倍多,而原始研究则是三倍。与最初的调查结果一致,新年活动的影响在先前反难民敌意程度较低的地区也更为明显。
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引用次数: 0
Precarity and populism: explaining populist outlook and populist voting in Europe through subjective financial and work-related insecurity 不稳定与民粹主义:通过主观的金融和工作不安全感解释欧洲的民粹主义前景和民粹主义投票
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-12 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad052
Andrei Zhirnov, Lorenza Antonucci, Jan Philipp Thomeczek, Laszlo Horvath, Carlo D’Ippoliti, Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, André Krouwel, Norbert Kersting
Abstract Precarity is often evoked in discussions about the rise of populism, but there is a dearth of systematic operationalization of the sociological concept of insecurity in populist research. This study fills this gap by theorizing about and empirically linking work-related and financial insecurity to populist outlook and voting in ten European countries. We propose a theoretical framework that links insecurity, respectively, to populist attitudes (symbolic link) and to populist voting (instrumental link). Our empirical investigation of 10 European countries finds a positive association between work and financial insecurity and populist outlook (people-centrism and anti-elitism, in particular) in all our case study countries. Precarity explains votes for Radical Populist Right and Radical Populist Left in all cases except populist right voting in Poland, Hungary, and Italy. Among the dimensions of precarity, financial insecurity and insecurity of work conditions show a particularly significant association with populist attitudes and voting, while the insecurity of tenure provides mixed results. These results suggest that insecurity may have an effect on the diffusion of populist attitudes and populist voting. It also indicates that populist outlook and voting should be investigated by not simply examining the insecurity of tenure but also using measures of insecurity that capture the conditions of work and financial insecurity of individuals.
在民粹主义兴起的讨论中,不稳定性经常被提及,但在民粹主义研究中,缺乏对不安全社会学概念的系统操作化。这项研究填补了这一空白,通过理论和经验将工作和财务不安全感与10个欧洲国家的民粹主义前景和投票联系起来。我们提出了一个理论框架,将不安全感分别与民粹主义态度(象征联系)和民粹主义投票(工具联系)联系起来。我们对10个欧洲国家的实证调查发现,在我们所有的案例研究国家中,工作与财务不安全感和民粹主义观点(尤其是以人为中心和反精英主义)之间存在正相关。不稳定性解释了除了波兰、匈牙利和意大利的民粹主义右翼之外,所有国家都出现了激进民粹主义右翼和激进民粹主义左翼的选票。在不稳定的维度中,财务不安全和工作条件不安全与民粹主义态度和投票有着特别显著的联系,而任期的不安全则带来了复杂的结果。这些结果表明,不安全感可能对民粹主义态度的扩散和民粹主义投票产生影响。它还表明,对民粹主义前景和投票的调查不应仅仅通过审查任期的不安全感,还应使用捕捉个人工作条件和财务不安全感的不安全感措施。
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引用次数: 0
What (wo)men want? Evidence from a factorial survey on preferred work hours in couples after childbirth 男人想要什么?对生育后夫妇偏好工作时间的析因调查证据
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-06 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad054
Katia Begall
The division of labour remains persistently gendered, in particular among couples with children. Previous research shows that women’s lower economic resources are an important factor driving these inequalities, but because gender and (relative) earnings are highly correlated in male–female couples, their relative importance is difficult to disentangle with observational data. Using a factorial survey conducted among approximately 700 employed men and women of childbearing age in Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands, the contribution of relative earnings and gender in explaining work-care divisions in couples with children is disentangled. The results show that men and women do not differ in their preferences for their own work hours after childbirth, but both prefer the father to work more hours than the mother. Moreover, the combination of own and partners’ preferred hours shows that men and women in all three countries prefer a modified male-breadwinner model after childbirth in scenarios where the male partner earns more or partners have equal earnings. Preferences for egalitarian divisions of labour appear to be slightly stronger in men compared to women and respondents with more egalitarian views on care tasks show less gender-specialization.
劳动分工仍然存在性别歧视,特别是在有孩子的夫妇之间。先前的研究表明,女性较低的经济资源是导致这些不平等的一个重要因素,但由于性别和(相对)收入在男女伴侣中高度相关,因此很难从观察数据中理清它们的相对重要性。通过对瑞典、英国和荷兰约700名育龄就业男女进行的析因调查,揭示了相对收入和性别在解释有孩子夫妇的工作照顾划分方面的贡献。结果表明,男性和女性在产后对自己工作时间的偏好上没有差异,但都更喜欢父亲比母亲工作更多的时间。此外,自己和伴侣的首选工作时间的组合表明,在男性伴侣收入更多或伴侣收入相等的情况下,这三个国家的男性和女性都更喜欢产后的改良男性养家糊口模式。与女性相比,男性对平等分工的偏好似乎略强,对护理任务持更平等观点的受访者显示性别专业化程度较低。
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引用次数: 0
Two faces of benefit generosity: comparing justice preferences in the access to and level of welfare benefits 福利慷慨的两面:比较福利获取与福利水平的正义偏好
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-25 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad053
Arno Van Hootegem, Bart Meuleman, Koen Abts
Abstract Welfare generosity is a multidimensional concept that refers to both the access to benefits and the levels of benefits (in terms of the amounts paid to recipients). However, in analyses of public support for welfare, this distinction has been largely disregarded. To gain a fuller picture of attitudes towards welfare redistribution, the current study explicitly compares the two elements and examines which distributive justice principles—that is, equality, equity, and need—are preferred to govern, on the one hand, the access to benefits and, on the other hand, their levels. The article evaluates this distinction in two different distributive contexts (pensions and unemployment benefits) and contrasts social-structural as well as ideological dividing lines. For this purpose, data from the Belgian National Elections Study 2019 are analysed. The results indicate that the access to and levels of benefits are clearly distinct dimensions in public opinion, as different justice principles are preferred for the two policy dimensions. In addition, structural equation models illustrate that the access dimension is more ideologically structured, whereas preferences regarding the levels of benefits are more strongly stratified along social-structural lines. Overall, the results imply that social justice preferences are clearly different when considering the access to benefits or their level. This distinction should be taken into account in welfare attitude research.
福利慷慨是一个多维度的概念,既涉及福利的获得,也涉及福利的水平(以支付给受助者的金额来衡量)。然而,在分析公众对福利的支持时,这种区别在很大程度上被忽视了。为了更全面地了解人们对福利再分配的态度,本研究明确地比较了这两个要素,并考察了哪一种分配正义原则——即平等、公平和需求——更倾向于控制福利的获取,另一方面,控制福利的水平。本文在两种不同的分配背景下(养老金和失业救济金)评估了这种区别,并对比了社会结构和意识形态的分界线。为此,本文分析了2019年比利时全国选举研究的数据。结果表明,福利的获取和水平在公众舆论中是明显不同的维度,因为不同的正义原则倾向于两个政策维度。此外,结构方程模型表明,获取维度更具意识形态结构性,而关于福利水平的偏好则更强烈地沿着社会结构线分层。总体而言,结果表明,当考虑到获得福利或其水平时,社会正义偏好明显不同。在福利态度研究中应考虑到这一区别。
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引用次数: 0
Birth cohort changes in fertility ideals: evidence from repeated cross-sectional surveys in Finland 生育理想的出生队列变化:来自芬兰重复横断面调查的证据
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-09 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad048
Kateryna Golovina, Natalie Nitsche, Venla Berg, Anneli Miettinen, Anna Rotkirch, Markus Jokela
Abstract Fertility has declined in developed countries but whether there is a similar pattern in the number of children individuals wish to have (henceforth an ideal number of children) remains unclear. Using repeated cross-sectional survey data from the Finnish Family Barometers, we examine birth cohort changes in the ideal number of children among men and women from five birth cohorts (1970–1974, 1975–1979, 1980–1984, 1985–1989, and 1990–1994). We also investigate whether associations between socioeconomic factors and the ideal number of children differ across birth cohorts, and whether there are any gender differences in these associations. We find that the ideal number of children is lower among more recent than earlier birth cohorts and that this shift is driven by substantially higher child-free ideals among recent cohorts. While the ideal number of children among men and women is associated with socioeconomic factors, birth cohort differences remain significant after controlling for these characteristics. These findings suggest that large birth cohort differences in child-free ideals are not due to the individual socioeconomic circumstances of more recent birth cohorts. Rather, it appears that the childbearing attitudes of Finns have changed and may have contributed to the recent fertility decline.
发达国家的生育率已经下降,但在个人希望生育的孩子数量(今后理想的孩子数量)方面是否存在类似的模式仍不清楚。使用芬兰家庭晴雨表的重复横断面调查数据,我们检查了五个出生队列(1970-1974年、1975-1979年、1980-1984年、1985-1989年和1990-1994年)中男性和女性理想子女数量的变化。我们还调查了社会经济因素与理想子女数量之间的关联是否在出生队列中有所不同,以及这些关联中是否存在性别差异。我们发现,在最近出生的队列中,理想的孩子数量比较早出生的队列低,这种转变是由最近出生的队列中更高的无孩子理想所驱动的。虽然男女理想的子女数量与社会经济因素有关,但在控制了这些特征后,出生队列的差异仍然很大。这些发现表明,出生队列在无子女理想方面的巨大差异并不是由于近期出生队列的个人社会经济环境。相反,芬兰人的生育态度似乎发生了变化,这可能是导致最近生育率下降的原因。
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引用次数: 0
The air pollution disadvantage of immigrants in Germany: partly a matter of urbanity 德国移民在空气污染方面的劣势:部分原因是城市化
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-05 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad046
Ingmar Ehler, Felix Bader, Tobias Rüttenauer, Henning Best
Abstract Several studies now document the disproportionate distribution of environmental pollution across different groups, but many are based on aggregated data or subjective pollution measures. In this study, we describe the air quality disadvantage of migrants in Germany using objective pollution data linked to nationally representative individual-level survey data. We intersect 1 × 1 km2 grid geo-references from the German General Social Survey (ALLBUS) 2014, 2016, and 2018 with 2 × 2 km2 estimates of annually averaged air pollution by the German Environment Agency for nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and particulate matter. Respondents with a migration background are exposed to higher levels of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter than people of German descent. Urbanity of residence partly explains these differences, up to 81 per cent for particulate matter and about 30 per cent for other pollutants. A larger proportion of immigrants live in larger cities, which are more prone to high levels of air pollution. This is especially true for second-generation migrants. Income differences, on the other hand, do not explain the migrant disadvantage. In city fixed effects models, the patterns for migration background point unambiguously in the direction of environmental disadvantage for all pollutants except ozone. However, the within-municipality associations are weak.
现在有几项研究记录了环境污染在不同群体中的不成比例分布,但许多研究都是基于汇总数据或主观污染测量。在这项研究中,我们使用与具有全国代表性的个人调查数据相关联的客观污染数据来描述德国移民的空气质量劣势。我们将德国综合社会调查(ALLBUS) 2014年、2016年和2018年的1 × 1平方公里网格地理参考资料与德国环境署对二氧化氮、臭氧和颗粒物的年平均空气污染估计2 × 2平方公里相交。有移民背景的受访者比德国血统的人暴露在更高水平的二氧化氮和颗粒物中。居住地的城市化程度在一定程度上解释了这些差异,颗粒物的比例高达81%,其他污染物的比例约为30%。更大比例的移民居住在更大的城市,这些城市更容易受到严重的空气污染。对于第二代移民来说尤其如此。另一方面,收入差异并不能解释移民的劣势。在城市固定效应模型中,迁移背景的模式明确地指向除臭氧以外的所有污染物的环境不利方向。然而,城市内部的协会是薄弱的。
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引用次数: 0
Correction to: The female-breadwinner well-being ‘penalty’: differences by men’s (un)employment and country 更正:女性养家者的幸福“惩罚”:男性(非)就业和国家的差异
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-02 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad049
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引用次数: 0
Correction to: Do women evaluate their lower earnings still to be fair? Findings on the contented female worker paradox examining the role of occupational contexts in 27 European countries 更正:女性认为她们的低收入仍然是公平的吗?在27个欧洲国家对职业背景的作用检查满意女工悖论的调查结果
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-21 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad042
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引用次数: 0
Leaving the bike unlocked: trust discrimination in inter-ethnic encounters 解锁自行车:种族间遭遇信任歧视
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-20 DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcad045
Georg Kanitsar
Migration and ethnic diversity are said to hamper the cultivation of social trust, as native citizens may hesitate to trust ethnic out-groups and racial minorities. This article examines trust discrimination against ethno-racial minorities in everyday interactions. In a field intervention, cyclists were approached with a request for help that required them to leave their bicycles alone for a short time. I experimentally manipulated the presence and the ethnic background of a bystander positioned close to the spot where the cyclists left their bikes behind and operationalized trust as the decision to leave the bike unlocked and unattended. I found that cyclists showed significantly less trust in the presence of ethno-racial minorities compared to natives. Furthermore, trust in the wild depends on the stakes involved, as measured by the value of the bike, and one’s vulnerability to trust betrayal, as indicated by the physical stature of the cyclists. By examining a real-life indicator of trust in inter-ethnic encounters, this study advances our knowledge of the ethnic boundaries of social trust and forms of covert discrimination in anonymous and multi-ethnic societies.
移民和种族多样性据说阻碍了社会信任的培养,因为当地公民可能会犹豫是否信任少数民族和少数民族。本文探讨了在日常交往中对少数民族的信任歧视。在一次实地干预中,骑自行车的人被要求提供帮助,要求他们短时间不要骑自行车。我通过实验操纵了一名旁观者的存在和种族背景,该旁观者靠近骑自行车的人留下自行车的地方,并将信任作为让自行车解锁和无人看管的决定。我发现,与当地人相比,骑自行车的人对少数民族的存在表现出明显的不信任。此外,对野生动物的信任取决于所涉及的利害关系,以自行车的价值来衡量,也取决于一个人对信任背叛的脆弱性,以骑自行车的人的身体状况来衡量。通过研究种族间交往中信任的现实指标,这项研究加深了我们对匿名和多民族社会中社会信任的种族界限和隐蔽歧视形式的了解。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
European Sociological Review
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