IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103725

Joohee Lee , Manuela G. Hartwig

Hope is an essential narrative in sustainability discourse, yet it alone has been insufficient to drive transformative change. Another key narrative is ecological reflexivity, which emphasizes the critical self-assessment of human impacts and failures to act on sustainability challenges. Through a dual lens of hope and reflexivity, this study analyzed eight UN environmental summit documents that have shaped global sustainability discourse. Using qualitative content analysis, we coded three elements of hope (goal, pathways, agency) and three of ecological reflexivity (recognition, rethinking, response) at the phrase and sentence levels, and identified patterns in how these narratives intersect at the paragraph level. The concept of narrative stance served as the primary criterion for distinguishing explicit from implicit reflexivity. The results show that hope is often coupled with minimal self-reflection on humanity’s role in escalating ecological crises and repeated inaction. When present, reflexivity tends to be indirect or implicit, while hope is often articulated in the active voice. A document-level comparison reveals that several summit documents, including recent ones, cluster around an implicit reflexive stance, which may reflect political inertia amid stalled progress in sustainability governance. Based on these findings, we call for the institutionalization of ecological reflexivity in UN sustainability discourse to cultivate more grounded forms of hope.

希望是可持续发展话语的基本叙述，但仅凭它不足以推动变革。另一个关键的叙述是生态反身性，它强调对人类影响和未能采取行动应对可持续性挑战的关键自我评估。通过希望和反思的双重视角，本研究分析了影响全球可持续发展话语的八份联合国环境峰会文件。通过定性内容分析，我们在短语和句子层面对希望的三个要素（目标、途径、代理）和生态反思性的三个要素（认可、反思、回应）进行了编码，并确定了这些叙事在段落层面如何相交的模式。叙述立场的概念是区分外显反身和内隐反身的主要标准。结果表明，希望往往伴随着对人类在不断升级的生态危机中所扮演的角色的最低限度的自我反思和反复的无所作为。当出现时，反身性往往是间接或含蓄的，而希望通常是用主动语态表达的。文件层面的比较表明，包括最近的一些峰会文件，围绕着一个隐含的反思性立场，这可能反映了在可持续治理进展停滞的情况下的政治惰性。基于这些发现，我们呼吁在联合国可持续发展话语中将生态反身性制度化，以培养更有根据的希望。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring alternatives and unfolding possibilities: A futures perspective on carbon capture and storage in the Nordic region 探索替代方案和展现可能性：北欧地区碳捕集与封存的未来展望

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103724

Ehsan Marzban , Farid Karimi

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is increasingly recognised as a bridging technology for achieving a low-carbon future. However, its deployment faces significant uncertainties across technical, social, political, and economic dimensions. This study explores the possible futures of CCS in the Nordic region by addressing two key questions: What are the main drivers and uncertainties in the deployment of CCS-related technologies? And what generic scenarios can be envisioned for CCS by 2050? Based on a literature review and expert survey, and using structural analysis, this study identifies interdependencies among 15 key factors. The analysis highlights three primary driving forces: social acceptability, political development, and funding and business models, alongside technological innovations, which is a presumed driver, each encompassing distinct uncertainties. Using Dator’s Four Generic Futures framework, this paper develops scenario archetypes that outline four distinct pathways: Seamless deployment, a sustained growth path prioritising CCS for emission mitigation; Obstacle-ridden implementation, a disciplined path with constrained deployment due to systemic barriers; Stagnation, a collapse trajectory for CCS favouring zero-emission alternatives; and Negative emissions boom, a transformative scenario in which technologies such as BECCS and DACCS gains prominence. The study concludes with policy implications, reflecting the uncertainties and complexities surrounding CCS deployment in the Nordic context.

碳捕获与封存（CCS）越来越被认为是实现低碳未来的桥梁技术。然而，它的部署面临着技术、社会、政治和经济方面的重大不确定性。本研究通过解决两个关键问题探讨了CCS在北欧地区的可能未来：CCS相关技术部署的主要驱动因素和不确定性是什么？到2050年，CCS的一般应用场景是什么？本研究以文献回顾和专家调查为基础，运用结构分析法，确定了15个关键因素之间的相互依存关系。分析强调了三个主要驱动力：社会可接受性、政治发展、资金和商业模式，以及技术创新，这是一个假定的驱动力，每个驱动力都包含不同的不确定性。利用Dator的四种通用未来框架，本文开发了情景原型，概述了四种不同的路径：无缝部署，优先考虑CCS减排的持续增长路径；障碍重重的实施，由于系统障碍而约束部署的有纪律的路径；停滞，CCS倾向于零排放替代品的崩溃轨迹；负排放热潮，即BECCS和DACCS等技术获得突出地位的变革性情景。该研究总结了政策影响，反映了北欧环境下CCS部署的不确定性和复杂性。

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引用次数: 0

Anticipatory practices in risk governance: Affordances and politics of computational models 风险治理中的预期实践：计算模型的支持和政治

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103721

Daniela Fuchs , Anja Bauer

引用次数: 0

Definitions of artificial intelligence and quantum technologies: A comparative thematic analysis of the strategic documents of 29 European countries 人工智能与量子技术的定义：对欧洲29个国家战略文件的比较专题分析

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103722

Biagio Aragona, Suania Acampa

This article provides new insights into the intertwining between technological definitions, sociotechnical futures, and governance trajectories in an increasingly complex geopolitical context. It analyses the definitions of artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum technologies (QTs) that have been adopted by 27 EU member states and two associated countries (Norway and the United Kingdom), and which are contained in their national strategy documents. Drawing on the theoretical framework of sociotechnical imaginaries and employing qualitative thematic analysis, the article shows how these definitions co-constitute narratives that intertwine visions of technological development with governance choices. The lexicon used in definitions is not neutral, and reflects distinct epistemological assumptions and political priorities, thus demonstrating how definitional language acts as a performative tool that legitimizes strategic decisions and aligns collective expectations. AI and QTs are emerging technologies (ETs), characterized by rapid growth, high uncertainty, and potential for significant socio-economic impact, and they are the only two ETs for which most European countries have produced national strategic documents in response to specific requests and coordination efforts by the European Commission. A comparative thematic analysis reveals the relevance of these definitions for national and supranational governance, and indicates that the strategic documents are explicitly oriented toward imagining and shaping specific technological futures that justify increasing public investment in both domains.

本文对日益复杂的地缘政治背景下的技术定义、社会技术未来和治理轨迹之间的相互交织提供了新的见解。它分析了27个欧盟成员国和两个联系国（挪威和英国）采用的人工智能（AI）和量子技术（qt）的定义，这些定义包含在他们的国家战略文件中。利用社会技术想象的理论框架，并采用定性的专题分析，本文展示了这些定义如何共同构成将技术发展愿景与治理选择交织在一起的叙述。定义中使用的词汇不是中立的，反映了不同的认识论假设和政治优先事项，从而展示了定义语言如何作为一种使战略决策合法化和协调集体期望的执行工具。人工智能和量子技术是新兴技术，其特点是快速增长、高度不确定性和潜在的重大社会经济影响，它们是大多数欧洲国家为响应欧盟委员会的具体要求和协调努力而制定国家战略文件的唯一两个新兴技术。一项比较主题分析揭示了这些定义与国家和超国家治理的相关性，并表明战略文件明确面向想象和塑造具体的技术未来，证明在这两个领域增加公共投资是合理的。

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引用次数: 0

Envisioning tomorrow’s spaces: A design fiction framework for exploring the integration of spatial computing into future architecture 展望未来的空间：探索将空间计算整合到未来建筑中的设计框架

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103723

Begum Moralioglu, Leman Figen Gül

As we move forward within the digital and information age, the advancements in Spatial Computing technologies enable the possible transformation of architectural spaces by blending digital and physical spaces. This study introduces a (Design) Fiction framework based primarily on Design Fiction then Science Fiction Prototyping methodologies to envision future architectural spaces in the context of Spatial Computing technologies. The introduced (Design) Fiction framework is essentially to assist architecture students in creating immersive three-dimensional storyworlds, encouraging them to investigate the relationship between future users, technologies, and spaces. A series of iterative workshops and tests were conducted with architecture students and experts to improve the framework and facilitate critical engagement in envisioning tomorrow’s spaces with advanced Spatial Computing technologies. The study utilizes a postphenomenological approach to analyze and evaluate how these technologies mediate human experiences in future spaces and shape architecture. The main goal of the study is to foster a forward-thinking mindset, especially among architects of the future, by prioritizing speculative and narrative-driven approaches, and preparing them to design creative, environmentally conscious, resilient built environments. Although the context of this study is focused on adapting Spatial Computing technologies into spaces, the (Design) Fiction framework is adaptable in its nature and can be used to include all emerging technologies in envisioning future architecture. Future research should explore the implementation of the (Design) Fiction framework in interdisciplinary user groups to discuss signals of emerging shifts and collaboratively envision sustainable and adaptive built environments.

随着我们在数字和信息时代的发展，空间计算技术的进步使建筑空间的转变成为可能，通过融合数字和物理空间。本研究介绍了一个（设计）小说框架，主要基于设计小说和科幻小说原型方法，在空间计算技术的背景下设想未来的建筑空间。引入的（设计）小说框架本质上是帮助建筑系学生创造身临其境的三维故事世界，鼓励他们研究未来用户、技术和空间之间的关系。与建筑系学生和专家一起进行了一系列反复的研讨会和测试，以改进框架，并促进批判性参与，以先进的空间计算技术展望未来的空间。该研究利用后现象学方法来分析和评估这些技术如何在未来空间和塑造建筑中调解人类体验。这项研究的主要目标是通过优先考虑投机和叙事驱动的方法，培养一种前瞻性思维，特别是未来的建筑师，并为他们设计创造性、环保意识和弹性的建筑环境做好准备。尽管本研究的背景侧重于将空间计算技术应用于空间，但（设计）小说框架在其本质上是适应性的，可以用于包括所有新兴技术来设想未来的建筑。未来的研究应该探索（设计）小说框架在跨学科用户群体中的实施，以讨论新兴转变的信号，并共同设想可持续和适应性的建筑环境。

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引用次数: 0

Acting together for a positive future: A cross-cultural investigation of how environmental cognitive alternatives and efficacy beliefs contribute to individual and collective biodiversity-conservation intentions 为积极的未来而共同行动：一项关于环境认知替代和功效信念如何促进个人和集体生物多样性保护意图的跨文化调查

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103720

Lucia Bosone , Jonas Rees , Tommaso Feraco , Marie Chevrier , Séverine Maggio , Franck Zenasni , Sebastian Bamberg

Motivating citizens to individually and collectively engage in favor of biodiversity conservation is a fundamental challenge of current society. But what are the drivers that motivate individuals to engage in biodiversity conservation actions? Growing interest in recent research on behavioral change for climate change mitigation is brought to individuals’ perception of the future, and more precisely how individuals’ ability to envision a positive eco-friendly future can be a fundamental step for behavioral change with regards to climate change mitigation. We argue that two important socio-cognitive dimensions need to be integrated in the modelling of biodiversity conservation intentions, related to individuals’ appraisal of collective coping: the perceived ability to imagine a positive future and efficacy beliefs with regards to behavioral and social changes in favor of biodiversity conservation. To this purpose, we carried out an exploratory correlational study, collecting data from France and Germany, China and the USA (total N = 2000). Present findings confirm that the ability to imagine a positive future and efficacy beliefs, together with social identity, social norms and attitudes, are strong correlates of biodiversity-conservation intentions, both at an individual and collective level. These findings offer important insights on envisioning positive futures as a significant factor supporting pro-environmental intentions.

激励公民个人和集体参与生物多样性保护是当今社会的一个基本挑战。但是，激励个人参与生物多样性保护行动的动力是什么呢？最近对减缓气候变化的行为改变的研究日益引起人们的兴趣，这些研究涉及个人对未来的看法，更确切地说，个人设想积极的生态友好未来的能力如何成为减缓气候变化的行为改变的基本步骤。我们认为，两个重要的社会认知维度需要整合到生物多样性保护意图的建模中，这与个人对集体应对的评价有关：想象积极未来的感知能力和对有利于生物多样性保护的行为和社会变化的功效信念。为此，我们开展了一项探索性相关性研究，收集了来自法国、德国、中国和美国的数据（总N = 2000）。目前的研究结果证实，想象积极未来的能力和效能信念，以及社会认同、社会规范和态度，在个人和集体层面上都与生物多样性保护意图密切相关。这些发现提供了重要的见解，设想积极的未来是支持亲环境意图的重要因素。

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引用次数: 0

Towards 2040: Collaborative approach in Finnish food systems transition 迈向2040年：芬兰粮食系统转型中的合作方法

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103708

Tiina Kymalainen , Tom Tamlander , Anneli Ritala , Anu Seisto

This article presents experimental research that engaged Finnish stakeholders in discussions on how to transition global food systems toward sustainability by 2040, addressing urgent challenges such as climate change, resource depletion and population growth. The study introduces the “Future Food Court Workshops,” which involved representatives from various sectors, including industry, public institutions, third-sector organizations, educational entities, and consumers. To guide these discussions, the research developed an integrated framework combining social design, foresight, technology, and business perspectives, aiming to anticipate emerging needs and societal transformations. The workshops employed “Five Dimensions of Futures Consciousness” model for qualitative analysis of the stakeholder engagement; the model was used explicitly to understand how participants conceptualized the future of food systems. The analysis revealed, for example, how participants experienced sustainability challenges, their capacity for future-oriented behavior, the impact of present actions on future outcomes and the role of emerging technologies reflecting values of the systems they serve. This research advances the field of futures studies by demonstrating an interdisciplinary approach to engaging stakeholders in sustainable food system transitions, and hopefully offers valuable insights for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners, underscoring the necessity of adopting sustainable practices to address pressing environmental concerns.

本文介绍了一项实验研究，芬兰利益相关者参与了关于如何在2040年之前将全球粮食系统向可持续性转型的讨论，以应对气候变化、资源枯竭和人口增长等紧迫挑战。该研究介绍了“未来美食广场工作坊”，来自各行各业的代表参与其中，包括工业、公共机构、第三部门组织、教育机构和消费者。为了指导这些讨论，该研究开发了一个综合框架，结合了社会设计、远见、技术和商业视角，旨在预测新出现的需求和社会变革。工作坊采用“未来意识的五个维度”模型对利益相关者参与进行定性分析；该模型被明确用于理解参与者如何概念化未来的粮食系统。例如，分析揭示了参与者如何经历可持续性挑战，他们面向未来的行为能力，当前行动对未来结果的影响以及反映其所服务的系统价值的新兴技术的作用。本研究通过展示一种跨学科的方法来吸引利益相关者参与可持续粮食系统转型，从而推动了未来研究领域的发展，并有望为研究人员、政策制定者和实践者提供有价值的见解，强调了采用可持续实践来解决紧迫环境问题的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

What if climate targets can only be reached in a shrinking economy?A scoping review of challenges and potential solutions 如果气候目标只有在经济萎缩的情况下才能实现呢？对挑战和潜在解决方案的范围审查

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103710

Michael Jakob

Debates on environmental sustainability are marked by divergent assessments of whether continued economic growth is compatible with ambitious targets to reduce the use of natural resources and greenhouse gas emissions. To account for the possibility that environmental sustainability can only be achieved with lower economic output, this study carries out a thought experiment in which ambitious environmental policies result in economic contraction. We provide an overview of potential challenges for labor markets, the welfare state, public finance, innovation and consumption patterns. We also discuss which types of policies might be implemented to address these challenges. On this basis, we highlight four central approaches of how to deal with the consequences of reduced economic output. First, making do with less by establishing clear priorities for public spending and increasing its efficiency. Second, tapping new streams of public revenue by increased taxation of externalities, wealth and top incomes. Third, rethinking the role of the state to guide innovation and to allow for more flexibility to adapt to changing economic conditions. Fourth, more participatory decision-making to limit the influence of special interest groups and navigate distributional conflicts.

关于环境可持续性的辩论，在持续的经济增长是否与减少自然资源使用和温室气体排放的宏伟目标相一致的问题上，各方的评估存在分歧。为了解释环境可持续性只有在较低的经济产出下才能实现的可能性，本研究进行了一个思想实验，其中雄心勃勃的环境政策导致经济收缩。我们概述了劳动力市场、福利国家、公共财政、创新和消费模式的潜在挑战。我们还讨论了可以实施哪些类型的政策来应对这些挑战。在此基础上，我们强调了如何处理经济产出减少后果的四种主要方法。首先，通过建立明确的公共支出优先次序并提高其效率，减少开支。第二，通过增加外部性、财富和最高收入的税收，挖掘新的公共收入来源。第三，重新思考国家在引导创新和允许更大的灵活性以适应不断变化的经济条件方面的作用。第四，更多的参与性决策，以限制特殊利益集团的影响，并解决分配冲突。

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引用次数: 0

Integrating ethnographic futures research with critical realism and grounded theory 将民族志未来研究与批判现实主义和扎根理论相结合

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103711

Lee Adams , Matt Sinclair , Mark Evans , Avsar Gürpinar

This paper presents Critical Realist Grounded Ethnographic Futures Research (CRG-EFR) as a development of the Ethnographic Futures Research (EFR) method. EFR is a long-established but under documented and developed scenario building method, that directly engages with images of the future held by a defined social group. Responding to the challenge that scenario methods lack theoretical depth compared to established social research methods, CRG-EFR is systematically built to combine the qualities of both, to enhance the scenario building process. Critical realism is established as a basis for understanding present reality and future possibilities, in which predictions are possible as conjectural knowledge of the future and can be systematically developed. EFR is set out as a method for building scenarios from conjectural knowledge of the future. Grounded Theory (GT) is then introduced as a rigorous research methodology that closely resembles the overall procedure of EFR, providing an established basis for the analysis of qualitative data that maintains the emic perspective of the futures of those social groups being researched. The application of the CRG-EFR method is illustrated in a discussion of its use in an ongoing research project, demonstrating how it achieves the methodological rigour necessary to meet quality criteria for grounded theory. The paper concludes by considering the limitations of the CRG-EFR method compared to classical EFR, identifying CRG-EFR as ideal suited for transformative futures research in which culturally embedded insights are foundational to images of the future.

本文提出了基于批判现实主义的民族志未来研究（CRG-EFR）作为民族志未来研究（EFR）方法的发展。EFR是一种建立已久，但有文件记录和发展的情景构建方法，它直接与特定社会群体所持有的未来图像相关联。针对情景方法相对于现有社会研究方法缺乏理论深度的挑战，系统构建了CRG-EFR，将两者的品质结合起来，以增强情景构建过程。批判现实主义是作为理解当前现实和未来可能性的基础而建立的，其中预测可以作为对未来的推测性知识，并且可以系统地发展。EFR是一种根据对未来的推测知识构建情景的方法。然后引入扎根理论（GT）作为一种严谨的研究方法，与EFR的整体程序非常相似，为定性数据的分析提供了一个既定的基础，这些定性数据保持了被研究的社会群体未来的主题视角。CRG-EFR方法的应用在一个正在进行的研究项目中进行了讨论，展示了它如何达到满足扎根理论质量标准所需的方法严谨性。本文最后考虑到与经典EFR相比，CRG-EFR方法的局限性，认为CRG-EFR非常适合未来变革研究，在这种研究中，文化嵌入的洞察力是未来图像的基础。

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引用次数: 0

Opening the methodological black box in science and technology studies of the future(s). Shadows and proposals 打开未来科学技术研究的方法论黑箱。阴影和建议

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103713

Cristián Navarrete , Fernando Campos-Medina , Iván Ojeda-Pereira

Science and Technology Studies (STS) emerged from a focus on the methods of “natural” scientists. Over the past decade, there has been an increasing concern with the field’s methodologies. Two enduring points of contention are the performative effects of methods and the need to further appraise STS methodologies by comparing them to others to understand why they work—or fail to work. We contribute to this ongoing discussion by focusing on a prolific area of research where performativity has been a key concern, but methodological reflection is limited: the study of futures. Within this context, we ask how STS scholars methodologically render the future into something researchable. By constructing a comprehensive database of publications and a methodological appraisal instrument, we demonstrate that most studies in the field fail to meet minimum reporting criteria. Arguments often overreach their declared objectives or are inadequately justified in their methods. Moreover, research on the future currently fails to acknowledge the various types of inference required to build arguments about the meanings, actions, and materialities related to the future. To advance STS, we propose practical strategies and guidelines to address these issues when working with both verbal and observational data. In general, the recommendation is to (1) improve methodological reporting, (2) explicitly identify the inferences being made, and (3) secure them through data triangulation, comparative designs, proper interview structures, and by avoiding subject biases.

科学与技术研究（STS）起源于对“自然”科学家方法的关注。在过去的十年中，人们越来越关注该领域的方法。两个持久的争论点是方法的执行效果，以及需要通过将STS方法与其他方法进行比较来进一步评估它们，以了解它们为什么有效或不起作用。我们通过关注一个多产的研究领域来促进这一正在进行的讨论，在这个领域，绩效一直是一个关键问题，但方法论反思是有限的：对未来的研究。在这种背景下，我们询问STS学者如何在方法上使未来成为可研究的东西。通过构建一个全面的出版物数据库和方法论评估工具，我们证明该领域的大多数研究未能达到最低报告标准。争论往往超出了其宣称的目标，或者在其方法上没有充分的理由。此外，关于未来的研究目前未能认识到建立关于与未来有关的意义、行动和物质性的论点所需的各种推断。为了推进STS，我们在处理口头和观测数据时提出了解决这些问题的实用策略和指南。总的来说，建议是：(1)改进方法学报告，(2)明确确定正在做出的推论，(3)通过数据三角测量、比较设计、适当的访谈结构和避免受试者偏见来确保这些推论。

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引用次数: 0

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