Pub Date : 2025-11-17DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103737
Russell Belk , Mariam Humayun , Mahsan Hajirasouliha
The idea of understanding the emergence of hopeful futures with netnography is no doubt a good one. Although netnography is based on the study of a small group of people, it may help understand where larger groups may be going, based on naturally occurring conversations conducted online. Such public and semi-public discourse tends to be polarized, but the more positive visions may indeed offer hope. In the contrarian view offered here, we temper such optimism with a historical view of prognostication in the realm of consumption and everyday life. We find that the practice of predicting the future has become more quantitative, but no more insightful with the rise of the internet and Big Data analytics. Doing in-depth netnography may, however, help understand how trends form and how they may affect the future as much or more than they predict it. We present a new conceptual understanding of the role of hype and visioneering in creating an atmosphere of excitement toward the latest technological innovation and explain why this is important.
{"title":"Yes, but…: Technology, netnography, and futures","authors":"Russell Belk , Mariam Humayun , Mahsan Hajirasouliha","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103737","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103737","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The idea of understanding the emergence of hopeful futures with netnography is no doubt a good one. Although netnography is based on the study of a small group of people, it may help understand where larger groups may be going, based on naturally occurring conversations conducted online. Such public and semi-public discourse tends to be polarized, but the more positive visions may indeed offer hope. In the contrarian view offered here, we temper such optimism with a historical view of prognostication in the realm of consumption and everyday life. We find that the practice of predicting the future has become more quantitative, but no more insightful with the rise of the internet and Big Data analytics. Doing in-depth netnography may, however, help understand how trends form and how they may <strong>affect</strong> the future as much or more than they <strong>predict</strong> it. We present a new conceptual understanding of the role of hype and visioneering in <strong>creating</strong> an atmosphere of <strong>excitement</strong> toward the latest technological innovation and explain why this is important.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103737"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article aims to ascertain if prevailing temporal imaginaries of capitalism are susceptible to change throughout sustainability transitions. As traditional economic institutions and practices face challenges under the polycrisis, so too may imagined futures (IFs). This research examines IFs of the German heating and housing transition (Wärmewende) in the context of the 2023 amendment of the German Building Energy Act (Gebäudeenergiegesetz, GEG). Twenty-three expert interviews with institutional stakeholders impacted by and integral to said transition were performed and assessed qualitatively. The approach concentrated on reconstructing the contingency of, topics of and agency upon IFs. The findings indicate that futures of heating and housing in Germany are seen as largely stable, namely as resistant to significant upheavals and subject to modification via political decisions. Amid a ‘heated’ amendment process, issues emerge not from the future but from a tumultuous present. Practitioners exhibit limited capabilities to use-the-future to attain sustainability objectives or disrupt the Status Quo. Moreover, they emphasise a pragmatic strategy of incremental measures grounded on established routines. Far-reaching transformations in heating and housing based on bold visions are largely absent. The research shows that the German heating transition is set to unfold along ‘incumbent futures’, perpetuating current patterns of technological innovation driven by market incentives and technocratic governance.
{"title":"“We need long-term thinking, predictability, and reliability.” Imagined futures of the German heating and housing transition","authors":"Lukas Bäuerle , Merle Barkey , Valentin Sagvosdkin , Josephine Semb","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103736","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103736","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article aims to ascertain if prevailing temporal imaginaries of capitalism are susceptible to change throughout sustainability transitions. As traditional economic institutions and practices face challenges under the polycrisis, so too may imagined futures (IFs). This research examines IFs of the German heating and housing transition (<em>Wärmewende</em>) in the context of the 2023 amendment of the German Building Energy Act (<em>Gebäudeenergiegesetz</em>, GEG). Twenty-three expert interviews with institutional stakeholders impacted by and integral to said transition were performed and assessed qualitatively. The approach concentrated on reconstructing the contingency of, topics of and agency upon IFs. The findings indicate that futures of heating and housing in Germany are seen as largely stable, namely as resistant to significant upheavals and subject to modification via political decisions. Amid a ‘heated’ amendment process, issues emerge not from the future but from a tumultuous present. Practitioners exhibit limited capabilities to use-the-future to attain sustainability objectives or disrupt the Status Quo. Moreover, they emphasise a pragmatic strategy of incremental measures grounded on established routines. Far-reaching transformations in heating and housing based on bold visions are largely absent. The research shows that the German heating transition is set to unfold along ‘incumbent futures’, perpetuating current patterns of technological innovation driven by market incentives and technocratic governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103736"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145526021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-09DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103734
Eilidh Kennedy , Michel Maietta , Max Santana
This article delves into the ongoing social exclusion of LGBTI individuals in the Global South up to 2030. It includes a brief literature review of the contributions of queer and postcolonial futures schools to strategic foresight. To illustrate this, a strategic foresight case study is discussed, incorporating queer and post-colonial perspectives. Among other prospective methods, the study employed an impact-uncertainty matrix and scenario planning to anticipate future trends. Four potential futures were identified, with the key drivers being media representation, stigmatization, criminalization, and religious acceptance. To achieve LGBTI inclusion by 2030, systematic changes are necessary. Policy interventions, leadership, and sustained advocacy are essential to bridge the gap between commitments and the actual experiences of LGBTI individuals.Keywords
{"title":"A global outlook on LGBTI social (ex)inclusion through 2030: Insights from queer and post colonial futures perspectives","authors":"Eilidh Kennedy , Michel Maietta , Max Santana","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103734","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103734","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article delves into the ongoing social exclusion of LGBTI individuals in the Global South up to 2030. It includes a brief literature review of the contributions of queer and postcolonial futures schools to strategic foresight. To illustrate this, a strategic foresight case study is discussed, incorporating queer and post-colonial perspectives. Among other prospective methods, the study employed an impact-uncertainty matrix and scenario planning to anticipate future trends. Four potential futures were identified, with the key drivers being media representation, stigmatization, criminalization, and religious acceptance. To achieve LGBTI inclusion by 2030, systematic changes are necessary. Policy interventions, leadership, and sustained advocacy are essential to bridge the gap between commitments and the actual experiences of LGBTI individuals.Keywords</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103734"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-07DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103733
Eleonora D’Ascenzi
In recent years, the need for inclusive and interdisciplinary educational methods has become increasingly important, especially for addressing complex social and cultural issues. In advanced communication design, particularly immersive storytelling, there is a growing demand for approaches that overcome knowledge fragmentation and transcend traditional disciplinary boundaries. In this sense, “indisciplinarity” questions the nature and usefulness of disciplinary boundaries specifically in the context of solutions to complex challenges. Queer theory, in fact, provides a framework for rejecting rigid categories. By challenging conventional frameworks, “queering” invites diverse perspectives and explores "not-yet" ways of teaching and engaging with the future. The “queer-indisciplinary” methodology presented in this paper focuses on deconstructing and hybridizing skills, in an effort to challenge disciplinary boundaries and promote experiential learning free from strict disciplinary boundaries, supporting innovation and creativity by specifically intertwining Design, Performing Art, Social Sciences, and Digital Technology (DASD). The DASD seminars examined in this study were designed specifically to facilitate students' design of disruptive communications as part of the indisciplinary queering process to foster critical futures thinking and disrupt hegemonic disciplinary structures. The DASD seminars demonstrated that the “queer-indisciplinary” approach not only fostered an inclusive understanding of knowledge but also developed essential skills for addressing contemporary challenges in immersive storytelling design, blending multiple perspectives to enhance innovation and creativity.
{"title":"Challenging the boundaries of knowledge: Application of a “queer-indisciplinary” approach in a storytelling design course","authors":"Eleonora D’Ascenzi","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103733","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103733","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, the need for inclusive and interdisciplinary educational methods has become increasingly important, especially for addressing complex social and cultural issues. In advanced communication design, particularly immersive storytelling, there is a growing demand for approaches that overcome knowledge fragmentation and transcend traditional disciplinary boundaries. In this sense, “indisciplinarity” questions the nature and usefulness of disciplinary boundaries specifically in the context of solutions to complex challenges. Queer theory, in fact, provides a framework for rejecting rigid categories. By challenging conventional frameworks, “queering” invites diverse perspectives and explores \"not-yet\" ways of teaching and engaging with the future. The “queer-indisciplinary” methodology presented in this paper focuses on deconstructing and hybridizing skills, in an effort to challenge disciplinary boundaries and promote experiential learning free from strict disciplinary boundaries, supporting innovation and creativity by specifically intertwining Design, Performing Art, Social Sciences, and Digital Technology (DASD). The DASD seminars examined in this study were designed specifically to facilitate students' design of disruptive communications as part of the indisciplinary queering process to foster critical futures thinking and disrupt hegemonic disciplinary structures. The DASD seminars demonstrated that the “queer-indisciplinary” approach not only fostered an inclusive understanding of knowledge but also developed essential skills for addressing contemporary challenges in immersive storytelling design, blending multiple perspectives to enhance innovation and creativity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103733"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145526008","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-06DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103705
Diana Kozachek
The increased use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in scenario generation presents new opportunities and challenges for futures research. While scenario development has traditionally emphasized human creativity, judgment, and deliberation, generative AI models such as GPT-3, GPT-3.5, and GPT-4 are now capable of producing seemingly plausible future narratives at scale. This study investigates how scenarios generated by three generations of GPT models compare to human-authored scenarios on Europe’s futures. Using a curated dataset of 1080 human-authored scenarios pre-ChatGPT, the models were fine-tuned and prompt-engineered to generate 3240 scenarios. A comparative analysis was conducted using quantitative measures (n-gram overlap, lexical diversity, topic modeling, sentiment analysis) and qualitative expert evaluation through a Delphi survey (N = 42). Results reveal substantive differences in thematic emphasis, linguistic features, and emotional tone between human and machine-generated outputs. Experts frequently misclassified the origin of scenarios, highlighting the increasingly blurred boundary between human and AI authorship. However, plausibility assessments showed a subtle bias against scenarios labeled as AI-generated, while AI-generated scenarios were thematically biased towards technology-centered topics. These findings raise important questions for the methodological integration of LLMs into scenario practices and suggest future directions for hybrid human–AI collaboration in futures research. This study contributes to the notion that scenario work increasingly relies on hybrid human–AI collaboration, requiring futures researchers to engage with technology-augmented methods in meaningful ways.
{"title":"Entering the age of hybrid futures: A comparative study of human and GPT-generated scenarios","authors":"Diana Kozachek","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103705","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103705","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increased use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in scenario generation presents new opportunities and challenges for futures research. While scenario development has traditionally emphasized human creativity, judgment, and deliberation, generative AI models such as GPT-3, GPT-3.5, and GPT-4 are now capable of producing seemingly plausible future narratives at scale. This study investigates how scenarios generated by three generations of GPT models compare to human-authored scenarios on Europe’s futures. Using a curated dataset of 1080 human-authored scenarios pre-ChatGPT, the models were fine-tuned and prompt-engineered to generate 3240 scenarios. A comparative analysis was conducted using quantitative measures (n-gram overlap, lexical diversity, topic modeling, sentiment analysis) and qualitative expert evaluation through a Delphi survey (N = 42). Results reveal substantive differences in thematic emphasis, linguistic features, and emotional tone between human and machine-generated outputs. Experts frequently misclassified the origin of scenarios, highlighting the increasingly blurred boundary between human and AI authorship. However, plausibility assessments showed a subtle bias against scenarios labeled as AI-generated, while AI-generated scenarios were thematically biased towards technology-centered topics. These findings raise important questions for the methodological integration of LLMs into scenario practices and suggest future directions for hybrid human–AI collaboration in futures research. This study contributes to the notion that scenario work increasingly relies on hybrid human–AI collaboration, requiring futures researchers to engage with technology-augmented methods in meaningful ways.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 103705"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145659080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-05DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103735
Siqian He , Ziyun Jiao , Rui Zhang
Design
fiction, as a speculative design practice, encourages reflection on the development of socio-technical systems, cultural norms, and various aspects of society by envisioning and simulating alternative futures. Despite the critical role of characters in the storytelling of design fiction, existing research has paid little attention to future characters, particularly in exploring characters from inclusive and posthuman future perspectives. To bridge this gap, we have designed the “Who Lives in the Future” toolkit to create a spectrum of diverse future characters that transcend anthropocentric constraints. We have gathered both quantitative and qualitative feedback to iteratively enhance the toolkit and validate its efficacy via workshops. This toolkit not only expands the boundaries of design fiction but also, as a collaborative storytelling instrument, it catalyzes the exploration of future diversity and posthuman ideologies.
{"title":"“Who Lives in the Future”?: A toolkit for imagining inclusive and posthuman future characters as an approach to design fiction","authors":"Siqian He , Ziyun Jiao , Rui Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103735","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103735","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Design</h3><div>fiction, as a speculative design practice, encourages reflection on the development of socio-technical systems, cultural norms, and various aspects of society by envisioning and simulating alternative futures. Despite the critical role of characters in the storytelling of design fiction, existing research has paid little attention to future characters, particularly in exploring characters from inclusive and posthuman future perspectives. To bridge this gap, we have designed the “Who Lives in the Future” toolkit to create a spectrum of diverse future characters that transcend anthropocentric constraints. We have gathered both quantitative and qualitative feedback to iteratively enhance the toolkit and validate its efficacy via workshops. This toolkit not only expands the boundaries of design fiction but also, as a collaborative storytelling instrument, it catalyzes the exploration of future diversity and posthuman ideologies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103735"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145526019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-04DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103732
Julia Vögele
This conceptual research investigates the intersection of futures literacy (FL) and entrepreneurship – two concepts with significant potential on how futures are shaped. FL equips individuals to anticipate and engage with uncertainty, while entrepreneurs remain key agents of change who increasingly require new competencies to create value responsibly in complex environments. This research explores where and how FL and entrepreneurship intersect, drawing on a literature review and expert interviews. Despite FL’s conceptual ambiguity, the findings reveal clear intersections with entrepreneurship on both theoretical and practical levels. The proposed framework of ‘futures-literate entrepreneurship’ integrates FL and entrepreneurship at the level of individual competencies, highlighting where they intersect and complement each other, as well as the potentials arising from their combination. This includes the empowerment to actively shape futures, greater adaptability and resilience in the face of uncertainty, the capacity for radical innovation, more robust business models, and human-centered approaches that support ethical and collaborative future-making. The contribution of this research is two-sided: It outlines not only how FL can enhance entrepreneurial practice, particularly for sustainable entrepreneurship, but also adds to the conception of FL from an entrepreneurship perspective. By identifying barriers and opportunities for their integration, the study encourages cross-disciplinary dialogue across the fields of futures studies and entrepreneurship. The proposed framework aims to inspire future empirical research on how combined FL and entrepreneurial competencies can help individuals navigate and shape uncertain futures more wisely.
{"title":"Shaping futures wisely: Integrating futures literacy with entrepreneurship","authors":"Julia Vögele","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103732","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103732","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This conceptual research investigates the intersection of futures literacy (FL) and entrepreneurship – two concepts with significant potential on how futures are shaped. FL equips individuals to anticipate and engage with uncertainty, while entrepreneurs remain key agents of change who increasingly require new competencies to create value responsibly in complex environments. This research explores where and how FL and entrepreneurship intersect, drawing on a literature review and expert interviews. Despite FL’s conceptual ambiguity, the findings reveal clear intersections with entrepreneurship on both theoretical and practical levels. The proposed framework of ‘futures-literate entrepreneurship’ integrates FL and entrepreneurship at the level of individual competencies, highlighting where they intersect and complement each other, as well as the potentials arising from their combination. This includes the empowerment to actively shape futures, greater adaptability and resilience in the face of uncertainty, the capacity for radical innovation, more robust business models, and human-centered approaches that support ethical and collaborative future-making. The contribution of this research is two-sided: It outlines not only how FL can enhance entrepreneurial practice, particularly for sustainable entrepreneurship, but also adds to the conception of FL from an entrepreneurship perspective. By identifying barriers and opportunities for their integration, the study encourages cross-disciplinary dialogue across the fields of futures studies and entrepreneurship. The proposed framework aims to inspire future empirical research on how combined FL and entrepreneurial competencies can help individuals navigate and shape uncertain futures more wisely.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103732"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145526007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-04DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103728
Giulio Toscani
As artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes industries, the challenge is ensuring it augments rather than replaces human capabilities. This paper introduces the prAIority framework, synthesizing insights from 153 experts across 50 countries and rooted in Aristotle’s Nicomachean Ethics. It integrates Epistêmê (high-quality data), Technê (AI systems), and Phronesis (human judgment) as essential components of human-AI collaboration. The framework bridges theoretical gaps between technical efficiency and ethical decision-making, offering actionable guidance for building human-centered AI systems. By prioritizing augmentation over automation, prAIority positions human judgment as central to innovation and ethical AI development.
{"title":"Future proofing expertise: AI as a power-up, not a takeover","authors":"Giulio Toscani","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103728","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103728","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes industries, the challenge is ensuring it augments rather than replaces human capabilities. This paper introduces the prAIority framework, synthesizing insights from 153 experts across 50 countries and rooted in Aristotle’s Nicomachean Ethics. It integrates Epistêmê (high-quality data), Technê (AI systems), and Phronesis (human judgment) as essential components of human-AI collaboration. The framework bridges theoretical gaps between technical efficiency and ethical decision-making, offering actionable guidance for building human-centered AI systems. By prioritizing augmentation over automation, prAIority positions human judgment as central to innovation and ethical AI development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103728"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145474455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-03DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103727
Lorena Torres Lahoz , Carlos Lima Azevedo , Leonardo Ancora , Paulo Morgado , Zenia Kotval , Bruno Miranda , Francisco Camara Pereira
Urban environments significantly influence mental health outcomes, yet the role of an effective framework for decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) for optimizing urban policies for stress reduction remains underexplored. While exist- ing research has demonstrated the effects of urban design on mental health, there is a lack of systematic scenario-based analysis to guide urban planning decisions. This study addresses this gap by applying Scenario Discovery (SD) techniques within an Robust Decision Making (RDM) context in urban planning, by focusing on static robustness of urban vegetation interventions in stress reduction across different urban environments using a predictive model based on emotional responses collected from a neuroscience-based outdoor experiment in Lisbon. Combining these insights with detailed urban data from Copenhagen, we identify key intervention thresholds where vegetation-based solutions succeed or fail in mitigating stress responses. Our findings reveal that while increased vegetation generally correlates with lower stress levels, high-density urban environments, crowding, and individual psychological traits (e.g., extraversion) can reduce its effectiveness. This work showcases our Scenario Discovery framework as a systematic approach for identifying robust policy intervencions in urban planning, opening the door for its exploration in other urban decision-making contexts where uncertainty and design resiliency are critical.
{"title":"Scenario Discovery for urban planning: The case of green urbanism and the impact on stress","authors":"Lorena Torres Lahoz , Carlos Lima Azevedo , Leonardo Ancora , Paulo Morgado , Zenia Kotval , Bruno Miranda , Francisco Camara Pereira","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103727","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103727","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban environments significantly influence mental health outcomes, yet the role of an effective framework for decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) for optimizing urban policies for stress reduction remains underexplored. While exist- ing research has demonstrated the effects of urban design on mental health, there is a lack of systematic scenario-based analysis to guide urban planning decisions. This study addresses this gap by applying Scenario Discovery (SD) techniques within an Robust Decision Making (RDM) context in urban planning, by focusing on static robustness of urban vegetation interventions in stress reduction across different urban environments using a predictive model based on emotional responses collected from a neuroscience-based outdoor experiment in Lisbon. Combining these insights with detailed urban data from Copenhagen, we identify key intervention thresholds where vegetation-based solutions succeed or fail in mitigating stress responses. Our findings reveal that while increased vegetation generally correlates with lower stress levels, high-density urban environments, crowding, and individual psychological traits (e.g., extraversion) can reduce its effectiveness. This work showcases our Scenario Discovery framework as a systematic approach for identifying robust policy intervencions in urban planning, opening the door for its exploration in other urban decision-making contexts where uncertainty and design resiliency are critical.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103727"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145526018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-31DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103731
Juliana Salvadorinho , Peter Hines , Maneesh Kumar , Carlos Ferreira , Leonor Teixeira
The rise of Industry 5.0 (I5.0)—with human-centricity as its defining pillar, complemented by sustainability and resilience—coincides with an unprecedented moment in workforce history: the simultaneous presence of four generations, including the emerging Generation Z. Human-centricity in this paradigm emphasizes well-being, purpose, and meaningful work as critical elements in reconfiguring organizations. Despite its centrality, there is still limited scholarly understanding of how generational motivations align or diverge in shaping this human-centered future of work. This study addresses that gap by exploring work-related motivators across Baby Boomers, Generation X, Y, and Z, aiming to inform foresight-driven organizational strategies. Using an inductive, two-phase approach—a Generation Z-focused workshop followed by a global multigenerational survey—we applied Correspondence Analysis to map value clusters among the generations. Findings reveal that Gen Y and Z converge on priorities like work-life balance, career development, and non-monetary incentives, while Gen X shares Z’s sense of purpose, albeit with more organizational and societal framing. Baby Boomers diverge most, valuing stability, creativity, and structured environments. Theoretically, the study contributes to futures scholarship by conceptualizing generational values as foresight variables—early signals of paradigm shifts in leadership, purpose, and motivation that reinforce and extend the human-centric vision of I5.0. Practically, we offer recommendations for designing inclusive, foresight-informed HR strategies that leverage generational diversity as a foundation for socially just and future-resilient organizations.
{"title":"From Gen Z to Boomers: Motivational drivers shaping Industry 5.0 and the future of work","authors":"Juliana Salvadorinho , Peter Hines , Maneesh Kumar , Carlos Ferreira , Leonor Teixeira","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103731","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103731","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rise of Industry 5.0 (I5.0)—with human-centricity as its defining pillar, complemented by sustainability and resilience—coincides with an unprecedented moment in workforce history: the simultaneous presence of four generations, including the emerging Generation Z. Human-centricity in this paradigm emphasizes well-being, purpose, and meaningful work as critical elements in reconfiguring organizations. Despite its centrality, there is still limited scholarly understanding of how generational motivations align or diverge in shaping this human-centered future of work. This study addresses that gap by exploring work-related motivators across Baby Boomers, Generation X, Y, and Z, aiming to inform foresight-driven organizational strategies. Using an inductive, two-phase approach—a Generation Z-focused workshop followed by a global multigenerational survey—we applied Correspondence Analysis to map value clusters among the generations. Findings reveal that Gen Y and Z converge on priorities like work-life balance, career development, and non-monetary incentives, while Gen X shares Z’s sense of purpose, albeit with more organizational and societal framing. Baby Boomers diverge most, valuing stability, creativity, and structured environments. Theoretically, the study contributes to futures scholarship by conceptualizing generational values as <em>foresight variables</em>—early signals of paradigm shifts in leadership, purpose, and motivation that reinforce and extend the human-centric vision of I5.0. Practically, we offer recommendations for designing inclusive, foresight-informed HR strategies that leverage generational diversity as a foundation for socially just and future-resilient organizations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103731"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145474454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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