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Anticipatory practices in the solid urban waste controversy in Gipuzkoa: Contested socio-technical futures Gipuzkoa城市固体废物争议中的预期实践:有争议的社会技术未来
IF 3.8 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103729
Sergio Urueña , Hannot Rodríguez
Anticipatory practices shape socio-technical realities by co-creating, mobilizing, and contesting multiple futures that guide present action. They influence what is deemed (un)desirable or (im)plausible in socio-technical trajectories at the intersection of STI, policy, and society. This article offers a retrospective analysis (2002–2025) of the anticipatory structuring of the long-standing controversy over the solid urban waste management system in the province of Gipuzkoa (Basque Country, Spain). It examines how community groups, institutions, experts, and political parties have enacted both formal and informal anticipatory practices to support or challenge incineration-centered futures. The study identifies and analyzes the methodologies, epistemic and normative assumptions, degrees of (in)formality, and domains of origin (STI, policy, civil society) of these practices, assessing their alignment with pro- or anti-incineration positions. The analysis shows that these practices have largely sustained two polarized scenarios—one advocating for incineration and another rejecting it—and that formal and informal futures interact and co-evolve across distinct temporal phases, actor configurations, and socio-political dynamics. Four key insights emerge: (i) formal anticipatory practices and informal futures interact in both conflictual and supportive modes; (ii) power asymmetries shape the degree of anticipatory practices’ (in)formality, visibility, and capacity to influence; (iii) dominant visions are often met with reactive “counter-visions” rather than substantive alternatives; and (iv) the prominence of anticipatory practices varies across phases, peaking in the early stages of the controversy.
预期实践通过共同创造、动员和竞争指导当前行动的多种未来来塑造社会技术现实。它们影响着在科技创新、政策和社会交叉点的社会技术轨迹中被认为是(不)可取的或(不)合理的。这篇文章提供了一个回顾性分析(2002-2025)的预期结构在Gipuzkoa省(巴斯克地区,西班牙)的固体城市废物管理系统的长期争议。它考察了社区团体、机构、专家和政党如何制定正式和非正式的预期做法,以支持或挑战以焚烧为中心的未来。该研究确定并分析了这些实践的方法、认知和规范假设、形式程度和起源领域(STI、政策、公民社会),评估了它们与支持或反对焚烧立场的一致性。分析表明,这些实践在很大程度上维持了两种两极分化的情景——一种倡导焚烧,另一种反对焚烧——正式和非正式的未来在不同的时间阶段、行动者配置和社会政治动态中相互作用和共同发展。出现了四个关键的见解:(i)正式的预期实践和非正式的未来在冲突和支持模式中相互作用;(ii)权力不对称决定了预期实践的正式程度、可见度和影响能力;(iii)主导愿景经常遇到被动的“反愿景”,而不是实质性的替代方案;(iv)预期实践的重要性在不同阶段有所不同,在争议的早期阶段达到顶峰。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond linear progress: Towards a material-temporal understanding of infrastructural unmaking 超越线性进展:对基础设施拆除的物质-时间理解
IF 3.8 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103730
Bregje van Veelen , Magdalena Kuchler
The implementation of low-carbon futures requires both the assembling of new technologies, and practices, as well as the ‘unmaking’ of extant high-carbon infrastructures. Here, we bring together geographical, STS, anthropological, and sociological thinking on time to re-conceptualise such processes of unmaking. We argue that a focus on temporalities is especially pertinent to the unmaking of material energy infrastructure, as the emergence of fossil fuel societies has also enabled a particular temporality of the future to take hold; one that is linear, future-oriented, and full of promise. The unmaking of energy infrastructures will likely rub up against this temporal form of thinking that dominates modern life. By drawing on three temporal concepts – ruination, suspension, and lingering – we explore how we can conceptualise the temporal dimensions of unmaking material infrastructures more explicitly, and differently. Through foregrounding the multifaceted interactions between the legacies of the past, the realities of the present, and the possibilities of the future we put forward an understanding of infrastructural unmaking and low-carbon futures that seeks to go beyond the confines of linear progress.
低碳未来的实施既需要新技术和新实践的整合,也需要对现有的高碳基础设施进行“拆解”。在这里,我们汇集了地理学、STS、人类学和社会学的准时思考,重新定义了这种破坏过程。我们认为,对暂时性的关注与物质能源基础设施的破坏尤其相关,因为化石燃料社会的出现也使未来的特定暂时性得以确立;它是线性的,面向未来的,充满希望的。能源基础设施的破坏可能会与这种主导现代生活的时代性思维形式产生摩擦。通过借鉴三个时间概念——毁灭、悬浮和逗留——我们探索了如何更明确、更不同地概念化拆除材料基础设施的时间维度。通过展望过去的遗产、现在的现实和未来的可能性之间多方面的相互作用,我们提出了对基础设施拆除和低碳未来的理解,试图超越线性进步的限制。
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引用次数: 0
Snails ahead! Metaphors of change and distributed prefiguration in the degrowth movement 蜗牛吧!去生长运动中变化的隐喻和分布的预示
IF 3.8 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103726
Clara Saglietti , Cyprien Brabant , Johan Holmén
What can just and sustainable futures look like? How can transformative processes be navigated to embody these futures? Are these represented by a snail going ahead slowly, a snake shedding skin, or an old oak tree harbouring great diversity? In this research, we focus on the metaphors used by pluriversal alternatives to explore and enact desirable futures through distributed prefiguration, which manifest across various currents of the degrowth movement. We analyse the resulting imaginaries and transformative strategies through their metaphors of change, since several heuristics and models for change highlight the role of metaphors for deep transformations. Metaphors underpin worldviews and mental models, and are fundamental to interpreting the world, organising cognitive landscapes, and structuring societal systems. Building on transformation studies and cognitive metaphor theory, we use the discourse dynamics framework to surface and interpret metaphors of change used by activists and researchers in the degrowth movement. From the analysis of an international survey, a participatory activity, and interviews, it emerges that the imaginaries and strategies among degrowth proponents draw mostly on relational root metaphors and ecological or societal domains. The imaginaries suggest that degrowth can inspire deep transformations on the interrelated planes of material transactions, human and more-than-human interactions, social structures, and inner being. The transformative strategies are classified as symbiotic, ruptural, interstitial, intermingling, and enabling. Considering the means-ends coherence, the balance between unity in directionality and openness to plurality is discussed in relation to hegemony-transcending transformations, to inspire new ways of thinking, acting, and relating in prefigurative efforts.
公正和可持续的未来会是什么样子?怎样才能驾驭变革过程来体现这些未来?它们是缓慢前进的蜗牛,蜕皮的蛇,还是一棵蕴藏着丰富多样性的老橡树?在本研究中,我们将重点关注多元替代方案所使用的隐喻,通过分布式预言来探索和制定理想的未来,这些隐喻体现在各种去增长运动的潮流中。我们通过变革的隐喻分析由此产生的想象和变革策略,因为一些变革的启发式和模型强调了隐喻在深度变革中的作用。隐喻是世界观和心理模型的基础,是解释世界、组织认知景观和构建社会系统的基础。在转型研究和认知隐喻理论的基础上,我们使用话语动力学框架来揭示和解释去增长运动中活动家和研究人员使用的变化隐喻。从一项国际调查、一项参与性活动和访谈的分析中可以看出,去生长支持者的想象和策略主要来自关系根源隐喻和生态或社会领域。这些想象表明,去生长可以激发物质交易、人类和超越人类的互动、社会结构和内在存在等相互关联层面的深刻变革。变革策略可分为共生策略、破裂策略、间隙策略、混合策略和启用策略。考虑到手段-目的的一致性,本文讨论了与超越霸权的转型相关的统一性和多元性的开放性之间的平衡,以激发新的思维方式、行动方式和预示性的联系方式。
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引用次数: 0
Too much hope in us? A qualitative inquiry into the deficit of ecological reflexivity in UN sustainability discourses 对我们寄予太多希望?联合国可持续话语中生态反身性缺失的定性探讨
IF 3.8 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103725
Joohee Lee , Manuela G. Hartwig
Hope is an essential narrative in sustainability discourse, yet it alone has been insufficient to drive transformative change. Another key narrative is ecological reflexivity, which emphasizes the critical self-assessment of human impacts and failures to act on sustainability challenges. Through a dual lens of hope and reflexivity, this study analyzed eight UN environmental summit documents that have shaped global sustainability discourse. Using qualitative content analysis, we coded three elements of hope (goal, pathways, agency) and three of ecological reflexivity (recognition, rethinking, response) at the phrase and sentence levels, and identified patterns in how these narratives intersect at the paragraph level. The concept of narrative stance served as the primary criterion for distinguishing explicit from implicit reflexivity. The results show that hope is often coupled with minimal self-reflection on humanity’s role in escalating ecological crises and repeated inaction. When present, reflexivity tends to be indirect or implicit, while hope is often articulated in the active voice. A document-level comparison reveals that several summit documents, including recent ones, cluster around an implicit reflexive stance, which may reflect political inertia amid stalled progress in sustainability governance. Based on these findings, we call for the institutionalization of ecological reflexivity in UN sustainability discourse to cultivate more grounded forms of hope.
希望是可持续发展话语的基本叙述,但仅凭它不足以推动变革。另一个关键的叙述是生态反身性,它强调对人类影响和未能采取行动应对可持续性挑战的关键自我评估。通过希望和反思的双重视角,本研究分析了影响全球可持续发展话语的八份联合国环境峰会文件。通过定性内容分析,我们在短语和句子层面对希望的三个要素(目标、途径、代理)和生态反思性的三个要素(认可、反思、回应)进行了编码,并确定了这些叙事在段落层面如何相交的模式。叙述立场的概念是区分外显反身和内隐反身的主要标准。结果表明,希望往往伴随着对人类在不断升级的生态危机中所扮演的角色的最低限度的自我反思和反复的无所作为。当出现时,反身性往往是间接或含蓄的,而希望通常是用主动语态表达的。文件层面的比较表明,包括最近的一些峰会文件,围绕着一个隐含的反思性立场,这可能反映了在可持续治理进展停滞的情况下的政治惰性。基于这些发现,我们呼吁在联合国可持续发展话语中将生态反身性制度化,以培养更有根据的希望。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring alternatives and unfolding possibilities: A futures perspective on carbon capture and storage in the Nordic region 探索替代方案和展现可能性:北欧地区碳捕集与封存的未来展望
IF 3.8 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103724
Ehsan Marzban , Farid Karimi
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is increasingly recognised as a bridging technology for achieving a low-carbon future. However, its deployment faces significant uncertainties across technical, social, political, and economic dimensions. This study explores the possible futures of CCS in the Nordic region by addressing two key questions: What are the main drivers and uncertainties in the deployment of CCS-related technologies? And what generic scenarios can be envisioned for CCS by 2050? Based on a literature review and expert survey, and using structural analysis, this study identifies interdependencies among 15 key factors. The analysis highlights three primary driving forces: social acceptability, political development, and funding and business models, alongside technological innovations, which is a presumed driver, each encompassing distinct uncertainties. Using Dator’s Four Generic Futures framework, this paper develops scenario archetypes that outline four distinct pathways: Seamless deployment, a sustained growth path prioritising CCS for emission mitigation; Obstacle-ridden implementation, a disciplined path with constrained deployment due to systemic barriers; Stagnation, a collapse trajectory for CCS favouring zero-emission alternatives; and Negative emissions boom, a transformative scenario in which technologies such as BECCS and DACCS gains prominence. The study concludes with policy implications, reflecting the uncertainties and complexities surrounding CCS deployment in the Nordic context.
碳捕获与封存(CCS)越来越被认为是实现低碳未来的桥梁技术。然而,它的部署面临着技术、社会、政治和经济方面的重大不确定性。本研究通过解决两个关键问题探讨了CCS在北欧地区的可能未来:CCS相关技术部署的主要驱动因素和不确定性是什么?到2050年,CCS的一般应用场景是什么?本研究以文献回顾和专家调查为基础,运用结构分析法,确定了15个关键因素之间的相互依存关系。分析强调了三个主要驱动力:社会可接受性、政治发展、资金和商业模式,以及技术创新,这是一个假定的驱动力,每个驱动力都包含不同的不确定性。利用Dator的四种通用未来框架,本文开发了情景原型,概述了四种不同的路径:无缝部署,优先考虑CCS减排的持续增长路径;障碍重重的实施,由于系统障碍而约束部署的有纪律的路径;停滞,CCS倾向于零排放替代品的崩溃轨迹;负排放热潮,即BECCS和DACCS等技术获得突出地位的变革性情景。该研究总结了政策影响,反映了北欧环境下CCS部署的不确定性和复杂性。
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引用次数: 0
Anticipatory practices in risk governance: Affordances and politics of computational models 风险治理中的预期实践:计算模型的支持和政治
IF 3.8 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103721
Daniela Fuchs , Anja Bauer
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引用次数: 0
Definitions of artificial intelligence and quantum technologies: A comparative thematic analysis of the strategic documents of 29 European countries 人工智能与量子技术的定义:对欧洲29个国家战略文件的比较专题分析
IF 3.8 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103722
Biagio Aragona, Suania Acampa
This article provides new insights into the intertwining between technological definitions, sociotechnical futures, and governance trajectories in an increasingly complex geopolitical context. It analyses the definitions of artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum technologies (QTs) that have been adopted by 27 EU member states and two associated countries (Norway and the United Kingdom), and which are contained in their national strategy documents. Drawing on the theoretical framework of sociotechnical imaginaries and employing qualitative thematic analysis, the article shows how these definitions co-constitute narratives that intertwine visions of technological development with governance choices. The lexicon used in definitions is not neutral, and reflects distinct epistemological assumptions and political priorities, thus demonstrating how definitional language acts as a performative tool that legitimizes strategic decisions and aligns collective expectations. AI and QTs are emerging technologies (ETs), characterized by rapid growth, high uncertainty, and potential for significant socio-economic impact, and they are the only two ETs for which most European countries have produced national strategic documents in response to specific requests and coordination efforts by the European Commission. A comparative thematic analysis reveals the relevance of these definitions for national and supranational governance, and indicates that the strategic documents are explicitly oriented toward imagining and shaping specific technological futures that justify increasing public investment in both domains.
本文对日益复杂的地缘政治背景下的技术定义、社会技术未来和治理轨迹之间的相互交织提供了新的见解。它分析了27个欧盟成员国和两个联系国(挪威和英国)采用的人工智能(AI)和量子技术(qt)的定义,这些定义包含在他们的国家战略文件中。利用社会技术想象的理论框架,并采用定性的专题分析,本文展示了这些定义如何共同构成将技术发展愿景与治理选择交织在一起的叙述。定义中使用的词汇不是中立的,反映了不同的认识论假设和政治优先事项,从而展示了定义语言如何作为一种使战略决策合法化和协调集体期望的执行工具。人工智能和量子技术是新兴技术,其特点是快速增长、高度不确定性和潜在的重大社会经济影响,它们是大多数欧洲国家为响应欧盟委员会的具体要求和协调努力而制定国家战略文件的唯一两个新兴技术。一项比较主题分析揭示了这些定义与国家和超国家治理的相关性,并表明战略文件明确面向想象和塑造具体的技术未来,证明在这两个领域增加公共投资是合理的。
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引用次数: 0
Envisioning tomorrow’s spaces: A design fiction framework for exploring the integration of spatial computing into future architecture 展望未来的空间:探索将空间计算整合到未来建筑中的设计框架
IF 3.8 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103723
Begum Moralioglu, Leman Figen Gül
As we move forward within the digital and information age, the advancements in Spatial Computing technologies enable the possible transformation of architectural spaces by blending digital and physical spaces. This study introduces a (Design) Fiction framework based primarily on Design Fiction then Science Fiction Prototyping methodologies to envision future architectural spaces in the context of Spatial Computing technologies. The introduced (Design) Fiction framework is essentially to assist architecture students in creating immersive three-dimensional storyworlds, encouraging them to investigate the relationship between future users, technologies, and spaces. A series of iterative workshops and tests were conducted with architecture students and experts to improve the framework and facilitate critical engagement in envisioning tomorrow’s spaces with advanced Spatial Computing technologies. The study utilizes a postphenomenological approach to analyze and evaluate how these technologies mediate human experiences in future spaces and shape architecture. The main goal of the study is to foster a forward-thinking mindset, especially among architects of the future, by prioritizing speculative and narrative-driven approaches, and preparing them to design creative, environmentally conscious, resilient built environments. Although the context of this study is focused on adapting Spatial Computing technologies into spaces, the (Design) Fiction framework is adaptable in its nature and can be used to include all emerging technologies in envisioning future architecture. Future research should explore the implementation of the (Design) Fiction framework in interdisciplinary user groups to discuss signals of emerging shifts and collaboratively envision sustainable and adaptive built environments.
随着我们在数字和信息时代的发展,空间计算技术的进步使建筑空间的转变成为可能,通过融合数字和物理空间。本研究介绍了一个(设计)小说框架,主要基于设计小说和科幻小说原型方法,在空间计算技术的背景下设想未来的建筑空间。引入的(设计)小说框架本质上是帮助建筑系学生创造身临其境的三维故事世界,鼓励他们研究未来用户、技术和空间之间的关系。与建筑系学生和专家一起进行了一系列反复的研讨会和测试,以改进框架,并促进批判性参与,以先进的空间计算技术展望未来的空间。该研究利用后现象学方法来分析和评估这些技术如何在未来空间和塑造建筑中调解人类体验。这项研究的主要目标是通过优先考虑投机和叙事驱动的方法,培养一种前瞻性思维,特别是未来的建筑师,并为他们设计创造性、环保意识和弹性的建筑环境做好准备。尽管本研究的背景侧重于将空间计算技术应用于空间,但(设计)小说框架在其本质上是适应性的,可以用于包括所有新兴技术来设想未来的建筑。未来的研究应该探索(设计)小说框架在跨学科用户群体中的实施,以讨论新兴转变的信号,并共同设想可持续和适应性的建筑环境。
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引用次数: 0
Acting together for a positive future: A cross-cultural investigation of how environmental cognitive alternatives and efficacy beliefs contribute to individual and collective biodiversity-conservation intentions 为积极的未来而共同行动:一项关于环境认知替代和功效信念如何促进个人和集体生物多样性保护意图的跨文化调查
IF 3.8 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103720
Lucia Bosone , Jonas Rees , Tommaso Feraco , Marie Chevrier , Séverine Maggio , Franck Zenasni , Sebastian Bamberg
Motivating citizens to individually and collectively engage in favor of biodiversity conservation is a fundamental challenge of current society. But what are the drivers that motivate individuals to engage in biodiversity conservation actions? Growing interest in recent research on behavioral change for climate change mitigation is brought to individuals’ perception of the future, and more precisely how individuals’ ability to envision a positive eco-friendly future can be a fundamental step for behavioral change with regards to climate change mitigation. We argue that two important socio-cognitive dimensions need to be integrated in the modelling of biodiversity conservation intentions, related to individuals’ appraisal of collective coping: the perceived ability to imagine a positive future and efficacy beliefs with regards to behavioral and social changes in favor of biodiversity conservation. To this purpose, we carried out an exploratory correlational study, collecting data from France and Germany, China and the USA (total N = 2000). Present findings confirm that the ability to imagine a positive future and efficacy beliefs, together with social identity, social norms and attitudes, are strong correlates of biodiversity-conservation intentions, both at an individual and collective level. These findings offer important insights on envisioning positive futures as a significant factor supporting pro-environmental intentions.
激励公民个人和集体参与生物多样性保护是当今社会的一个基本挑战。但是,激励个人参与生物多样性保护行动的动力是什么呢?最近对减缓气候变化的行为改变的研究日益引起人们的兴趣,这些研究涉及个人对未来的看法,更确切地说,个人设想积极的生态友好未来的能力如何成为减缓气候变化的行为改变的基本步骤。我们认为,两个重要的社会认知维度需要整合到生物多样性保护意图的建模中,这与个人对集体应对的评价有关:想象积极未来的感知能力和对有利于生物多样性保护的行为和社会变化的功效信念。为此,我们开展了一项探索性相关性研究,收集了来自法国、德国、中国和美国的数据(总N = 2000)。目前的研究结果证实,想象积极未来的能力和效能信念,以及社会认同、社会规范和态度,在个人和集体层面上都与生物多样性保护意图密切相关。这些发现提供了重要的见解,设想积极的未来是支持亲环境意图的重要因素。
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引用次数: 0
Towards 2040: Collaborative approach in Finnish food systems transition 迈向2040年:芬兰粮食系统转型中的合作方法
IF 3.8 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103708
Tiina Kymalainen , Tom Tamlander , Anneli Ritala , Anu Seisto
This article presents experimental research that engaged Finnish stakeholders in discussions on how to transition global food systems toward sustainability by 2040, addressing urgent challenges such as climate change, resource depletion and population growth. The study introduces the “Future Food Court Workshops,” which involved representatives from various sectors, including industry, public institutions, third-sector organizations, educational entities, and consumers. To guide these discussions, the research developed an integrated framework combining social design, foresight, technology, and business perspectives, aiming to anticipate emerging needs and societal transformations. The workshops employed “Five Dimensions of Futures Consciousness” model for qualitative analysis of the stakeholder engagement; the model was used explicitly to understand how participants conceptualized the future of food systems. The analysis revealed, for example, how participants experienced sustainability challenges, their capacity for future-oriented behavior, the impact of present actions on future outcomes and the role of emerging technologies reflecting values of the systems they serve. This research advances the field of futures studies by demonstrating an interdisciplinary approach to engaging stakeholders in sustainable food system transitions, and hopefully offers valuable insights for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners, underscoring the necessity of adopting sustainable practices to address pressing environmental concerns.
本文介绍了一项实验研究,芬兰利益相关者参与了关于如何在2040年之前将全球粮食系统向可持续性转型的讨论,以应对气候变化、资源枯竭和人口增长等紧迫挑战。该研究介绍了“未来美食广场工作坊”,来自各行各业的代表参与其中,包括工业、公共机构、第三部门组织、教育机构和消费者。为了指导这些讨论,该研究开发了一个综合框架,结合了社会设计、远见、技术和商业视角,旨在预测新出现的需求和社会变革。工作坊采用“未来意识的五个维度”模型对利益相关者参与进行定性分析;该模型被明确用于理解参与者如何概念化未来的粮食系统。例如,分析揭示了参与者如何经历可持续性挑战,他们面向未来的行为能力,当前行动对未来结果的影响以及反映其所服务的系统价值的新兴技术的作用。本研究通过展示一种跨学科的方法来吸引利益相关者参与可持续粮食系统转型,从而推动了未来研究领域的发展,并有望为研究人员、政策制定者和实践者提供有价值的见解,强调了采用可持续实践来解决紧迫环境问题的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
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