IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103489

Stefanie Baasch, Judith Maschke, Jaqueline Buhk

Hydrogen is considered one of the most important energy sources of the future, especially for the decarbonization of industry and the zero-carbon target in 2050. Despite high expectations, the transition to clean or green hydrogen is still in its infancy, although strategies and measures are being developed under considerable time pressure. In Germany, hydrogen strategies have been published at both national and state level, and significant funding programs have been initiated to support a fast ramp-up. This paper presents the results of a qualitative interview study with Bremen stakeholders on the sociotechnical imaginaries around the state's hydrogen transition, which is strongly focused on the decarbonization of the local steelworks. Conceptually, this study combines two strands: sociotechnical imaginaries and multiple energy justices. The results show that ideas about the future hydrogen transition are largely embedded in ecological modernization thinking, although they are still very vague and sometimes controversial. So far, justice aspects have been addressed almost exclusively in the narrow context of local job preservation, and not or hardly at all in the context of global hydrogen strategies. This carries the risk of designing a transition that further exacerbates the inequalities and injustices of existing energy systems.

氢能被认为是未来最重要的能源之一，尤其是在工业脱碳和 2050 年实现零碳目标方面。尽管人们对其寄予厚望，但向清洁或绿色氢能的过渡仍处于起步阶段，尽管在相当大的时间压力下正在制定相关战略和措施。在德国，国家和各州都发布了氢能战略，并启动了重要的资助计划，以支持快速发展。本文介绍了对不来梅利益相关者的定性访谈研究结果，内容涉及该州氢能转型的社会技术想象，主要集中在当地钢铁厂的去碳化方面。从概念上讲，本研究结合了两个方面：社会技术想象和多重能源正义。研究结果表明，关于未来氢能转型的想法在很大程度上已融入生态现代化思想中，尽管这些想法仍然非常模糊，有时还存在争议。迄今为止，正义方面的问题几乎都是在保护当地就业的狭隘背景下讨论的，在全球氢能战略的背景下没有或几乎没有讨论。这就有可能导致设计的过渡进一步加剧现有能源系统的不平等和不公正。

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引用次数: 0

Transformative territorial assessment of food systems: A post-normal science perspective 粮食系统的变革性地域评估：后常态科学视角

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103492

Pedro Lopez-Merino , Claire Lamine

The importance of food systems’ transformations worldwide in order to achieve sustainability is recognised at all levels and scales, and the assessment of the said sustainability appears as a central element to understand the very aspects that need transforming. In parallel, the territorial scale is increasingly seen as the right one to produce such transformations, both in the scientific literature and in policy debates. There has been a proliferation of sustainability assessment methods and tools over the past couple of decades. Yet, researchers agree that these have been mostly unable to support the aforementioned transformations. A post-normal outlook may help in doing so, and it is of interest to identify the aspects that can help rendering assessment coherent with post-normal science. We identify three central categories that can help in doing so, and should thus be considered as central elements in sustainability assessment of Food Systems. These are interdependencies between system components, the system’s trajectories and actors’ participation. We draw elements from the scientific literature to justify the importance of these elements, and carry out a focused literature review of Food System sustainability assessment at the territorial scale to see the extent to which the methodologies proposed incorporate them.

世界范围内为实现可持续性而进行的粮食系统变革的重要性在各个层面和规模上都得到了认可，而对上述可持续性的评估似乎是了解需要变革的各个方面的核心要素。与此同时，无论是在科学文献中还是在政策辩论中，地域尺度越来越被视为实现这种转变的正确尺度。在过去的几十年里，可持续性评估方法和工具层出不穷。然而，研究人员一致认为，这些方法和工具大多无法支持上述转变。后常态视角可能有助于实现这一目标，而确定有助于使评估与后常态科学相一致的方面是有意义的。我们确定了三个有助于做到这一点的核心类别，因此应将其视为粮食系统可持续性评估的核心要素。它们是系统各组成部分之间的相互依存关系、系统轨迹和参与者的参与。我们从科学文献中汲取了一些要素，以证明这些要素的重要性，并对地域范围内的粮食系统可持续性评估进行了重点文献综述，以了解所提出的方法在多大程度上纳入了这些要素。

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引用次数: 0

Influence of social factors and environmental behaviour in the knowledge and opinion about circular economy 社会因素和环境行为对循环经济知识和观点的影响

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103490

Víctor Sampedro-Beneyto, Asunción Agulló-Torres, Francisco J. Del_Campo-Gomis, Irene Arias-Navarro

The United Nations and the European Union, as well as other public institutions, are engaged in significant efforts to advance the promotion of the Circular Economy. The dissemination of messages regarding such initiatives to the citizens is of great importance, as this is expected to serve as a catalyst for the transition from a linear to a Circular Economy. Therefore, the objective is to analyse the knowledge and opinion about the Circular Economy in the province of Alicante (Spain) on a convenience sample and stratified into groups by gender, age, studies and environmental behaviour. This analysis will determine whether the efforts to disseminate knowledge and improve opinion about the Circular Economy are succeeding. The results indicate that there is an accurate knowledge and good opinion about Circular Economy in the scenario analysed in Alicante province (Spain), but a lot of work should be done to improve it both through greater involvement of society and companies, and by publicizing the benefits of the Circular Economy to the society.

联合国和欧洲联盟以及其他公共机构都在大力促进循环经济。向公民传播有关这些倡议的信息非常重要，因为这有望成为从线性经济向循环经济过渡的催化剂。因此，我们的目标是分析阿利坎特省（西班牙）公民对循环经济的认识和看法，并按性别、年龄、所学专业和环境行为进行分层抽样。这项分析将确定为传播循环经济知识和改善相关观点所做的努力是否成功。结果表明，在所分析的阿利坎特省（西班牙）的情景中，人们对循环经济有准确的认识和良好的看法，但仍有许多工作要做，既要让社会和企业更多地参与，又要向社会宣传循环经济的好处。

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引用次数: 0

Artificial intelligence in the judiciary: A critical view 司法机构中的人工智能：批判性观点

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103493

Stephanie Almeida de Jesus Dias , Renato Máximo Sátiro

The main objective of this study is to raise questions about using artificial intelligence (AI) in the judiciary based on critical thinking. The essay approach used in this work aims to foster reflection and debate on the subject, presenting a review of theoretical perspectives with particular attention to the critical theory of the first generation of the Frankfurt School and theories that seek to analyze the relationship between humans and society/technology, such as the critical theory of technology, and stays away from the dominant currents of thinking in organizational studies to contribute unexplored perspectives. In this manner, it will go beyond existing benefits and applications, focusing on a critical view that identifies the elements that guide the technological choices that have been made, thus promoting a discussion that aggregates elements for future developments and improvements. Based on this theoretical context, this essay will raise questions and present three propositions summarizing the identified difficulties and directing future studies.

本研究的主要目的是在批判性思维的基础上，提出有关在司法机构中使用人工智能（AI）的问题。本作品采用的论文方法旨在促进对这一主题的思考和辩论，对理论视角进行了回顾，尤其关注了法兰克福学派第一代的批判理论以及技术批判理论等试图分析人类与社会/技术之间关系的理论，并远离了组织研究中的主流思潮，贡献了尚未探索的视角。通过这种方式，本论文将超越现有的效益和应用，专注于一种批判性的观点，确定指导已做出的技术选择的要素，从而促进讨论，为未来的发展和改进汇总要素。基于这一理论背景，本文将提出问题，并提出三个命题，总结已发现的困难，指导今后的研究。

引用次数: 0

Relational visioning and the emerging future: Transforming towards a sustainable local society 关系愿景与新兴未来：向可持续的地方社会转变

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103486

Rita Nerland , Dina Hestad , Gisle Solbu , Kristin Hansen , Heidi Rapp Nilsen

The Earth is currently facing unprecedented anthropogenic impacts. In this context of widespread environmental degradation and climate anxiety, there is an urgent need to reimagine our approaches to sustainability. This paper explores how a relational framing of sustainability can be applied to visioning exercises to foster transformative actions in local governance. While relational approaches are increasingly recognized as important to spark transformative change, their benefits and practical applicability to visioning are still under-explored. Drawing on findings from a multi-stakeholder workshop in a Norwegian municipality, we make two main contributions to the existing literature. First, we demonstrate how a relational visioning process can be carried out, identifying three key elements for establishing a relational foundation that can catalyse effective sustainability transformations: 1) the act of listening deeply, 2) integrating values, and 3) defining direction. Second, we contribute with new insights concerning the benefits and practical application in local sustainability governance contexts, highlighting the need for facilitating incremental (yet radical) changes in existing governance frameworks that are sensitive to available bureaucratic resources.

地球目前正面临着前所未有的人为影响。在环境普遍退化和气候令人担忧的背景下，我们迫切需要重新构想可持续发展的方法。本文探讨了如何将可持续发展的关系框架应用于远景规划活动，以促进地方治理的转型行动。尽管人们日益认识到关系型方法对于引发变革具有重要意义，但对其在愿景规划中的益处和实际适用性的探索仍然不足。根据在挪威一个城市举办的多方利益相关者研讨会的结果，我们对现有文献做出了两大贡献。首先，我们展示了如何开展关系型愿景构想过程，确定了建立关系基础的三个关键要素，从而推动有效的可持续发展转型：1）深入倾听；2）整合价值观；3）确定方向。其次，我们就地方可持续发展治理背景下的益处和实际应用提出了新的见解，强调有必要促进现有治理框架的渐进（但彻底）变革，并对现有的官僚资源保持敏感。

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引用次数: 0

Sociotechnical transitions in the system for providing beef to human food: Scenarios for cultured meat 为人类食品提供牛肉的系统中的社会技术转型：养殖肉类的前景

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103488

Alice Munz Fernandes , Odilene de Souza Teixeira , Gleimiria Batista da Costa Matos , Jean Philippe Revillion , Ângela Rozane Leal de Souza

The objective of this work was to investigate the possible scenarios of sociotechnical transitions for cultured meat, considering a time horizon of ten years. We employ methodological procedures from the La Prospective School of scenario planning. Through the structural analysis, we identified ten key variables concerning the sociotechnical system of cultured meat, oriented according to the five sociotechnical regimes: technological, scientific, political, socio-cultural, and user and market. Subsequently, based on each key variable, we propose possible key events. The results present plausible scenarios for the next ten years (2022–2032). Using the key events identified based on theoretical contributions of sociotechnical transitions, we propose dynamics and transition paths for the sociotechnical system of supplying cultured meat. Thus, elements inherent to the exogenous landscape, the characteristics of the sociotechnical regimes, and the peculiarities of the aforementioned innovation developed at the technological niche level are highlighted. The findings do not neglect any possibility or transition path, but point to a greater inclination towards the path of transformation and reconfiguration to the detriment of de-alignment and realignment, and technological replacement. Thus, our contributions provide insights and reflections on the plausible paths of these modifications.

这项工作的目的是研究养殖肉类社会技术转型的可能情景，考虑的时间跨度为十年。我们采用了 La Prospective 学院的情景规划方法。通过结构分析，我们确定了有关养殖肉类社会技术系统的十个关键变量，并根据五个社会技术体系进行了定位：技术、科学、政治、社会文化以及用户和市场。随后，根据每个关键变量，我们提出了可能发生的关键事件。结果提出了未来十年（2022-2032 年）可能发生的情况。利用基于社会技术转型理论所确定的关键事件，我们提出了供应养殖肉类的社会技术系统的动态和转型路径。因此，我们强调了外生环境的固有要素、社会技术体系的特征以及上述在技术利基层面上发展起来的创新的特殊性。研究结果没有忽略任何可能性或过渡路径，但指出了更倾向于转型和重新配置的路径，而不是去调整和重新调整以及技术替代。因此，我们的贡献为这些变革的合理路径提供了见解和思考。

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引用次数: 0

World Futures Day 2023 Global futures agenda by The Millennium Project 千年项目制定的 2023 年世界未来日全球未来议程

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103485

Mara Di Berardo

World Futures Day (WFD), the 24 h round-the-world participatory method hosted every year by The Millennium Project and others on March 1, stimulates conversations and collective intelligence on possible futures. The 2023 edition marked its tenth anniversary. The 2023 Global futures agenda coming out from the data analysis is composed of four main clusters, each listing future oriented topics and related contents. Cluster 1, Complex solutions for complex problems, includes topics such as Environmental regeneration, Predictable food systems, Energy transition, Homo Galaxia, and Synergetic relations for peace. Cluster 2, A hyper-technological humanity, includes topics such as A biological revolution, New definitions of truth, An emotional AGI, A conscious AGI, and AGI governance. Cluster 3, Education and learning for a better future, includes topics such as Intelligent agent teachers, Intergenerational storytelling, and A cultural shift to self-actualization. Cluster 4, Improving global foresight, includes topics such as Futurists as a contradiction, A new leadership agenda, Futures shapers, The power of stories, Judging trillions of scenarios, Committees and summits for the future. After discussing some changes in the contents addressed over the years and some potential next steps for the research on WFD, the conclusions report that one key takeaway from WFD 2023 is that we have a vital need for pragmatic hope.

世界未来日（WFD）是千年项目和其他组织每年 3 月 1 日举办的 24 小时环球参与式活动，旨在激发人们就可能的未来展开对话，集思广益。2023 年世界未来日是其十周年纪念。通过数据分析得出的 2023 年全球未来议程由四个主要组别组成，每个组别都列出了面向未来的主题和相关内容。第一组，复杂问题的复杂解决方案，包括环境再生、可预测的粮食系统、能源转型、银河系智人和促进和平的协同关系等主题。第 2 组：超科技人类，包括生物革命、真理的新定义、情感 AGI、意识 AGI 和 AGI 治理等主题。第 3 组：教育与学习，共创美好未来，包括智能代理教师、代际故事讲述和向自我实现的文化转变等主题。第 4 组 "改善全球展望 "包括以下主题：作为矛盾体的未来学家、新的领导议程、未来塑造者、故事的力量、判断数以万亿计的情景、面向未来的委员会和峰会。在讨论了多年来讨论内容的一些变化以及世界未来发展研究下一步可能采取的措施之后，结论报告指出，《2023 年世界未来发展报告》的一个重要启示是，我们亟需务实的希望。

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引用次数: 0

A meta-network analysis of methodological specifications for system dynamics modelling application in agricultural food systems 农业粮食系统中应用系统动力学建模的方法规范元网络分析

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103484

J. Aboah , M.M.J. Wilson , K. Bicknell , E.D. Setsoafia

This paper aims to review existing applications of system dynamics modelling in agricultural food systems and draw insights from the various modelling procedures in order to highlight best-practice guidelines on methodological specifications for SD modelling. A meta-network analysis was used to identify existing studies that have applied SD modelling in agriculture. Using an algorithm that automatically clusters closely connected research articles based on Boolean search strings that look at the title, keywords, abstract, and digital object identifier (DOI) of the journal articles, 354 journal articles were selected for in-depth content analysis.

Based on the synthesised trends, two criteria for determining the type of modelling process and model type to apply for the model conceptualisation step are: (i) the immediate end goal of the modelling process, and (ii) data availability. Participatory modelling is appropriate when there is limited data and model outputs will inform the implementation of interventions by stakeholders. For action research focusing on well-researched food systems with substantial data available, the semi-participatory modelling process can be adopted, and quantitative SD models can be solitarily used. A key contribution of this paper is the proposed procedure for emergent participatory scenario development within the system dynamics modelling process.

本文旨在回顾系统动力学建模在农业粮食系统中的现有应用，并从各种建模程序中汲取启示，以强调可持续发展建模方法规范的最佳实践指南。本文采用元网络分析来确定农业中应用可持续发展建模的现有研究。根据综合趋势，确定模型概念化步骤所应用的建模过程类型和模型类型的两个标准是：(i) 模型概念化步骤的直接最终目标；(ii) 模型概念化步骤所应用的建模过程类型和模型类型；(iii) 模型概念化步骤所应用的建模过程类型和模型类型；(iv) 模型概念化步骤所应用的建模过程类型和模型类型：(i) 建模过程的直接最终目标，以及 (ii) 数据的可用性。参与式建模适用于数据有限，且模型输出结果将为利益相关者实施干预措施提供信息的情况。如果行动研究的重点是经过充分研究并拥有大量数据的粮食系统，则可以采用半参与式建模过程，并单独使用定量可持续发展模型。本文的一个主要贡献是提出了在系统动力学建模过程中进行新兴参与式情景开发的程序。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring intercultural perspectives of migration futures in a super-diverse city through intercultural participatory futures workshops: The case of Istanbul 通过跨文化参与式未来研讨会，探索一个超级多元化城市移民未来的跨文化视角：伊斯坦布尔案例

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103482

María Laura Ramírez Galleguillos , Aya Eloiriachi , Büşra Serdar , Aykut Coşkun

Most migration futures studies focus on reacting to migration issues such as flows and crises rather than exploring alternative images of futures centered on individual’s migration experiences. Addressing the limitations of existing practices criticized for their short-term, problem-oriented, and predominantly western, male-dominated, and colonized perspectives, this article presents intercultural participatory futures workshops as a novel technique for exploring more inclusive and intercultural migration futures. This approach enabled participants to collaboratively envision, build, and discuss alternative futures of migration for Istanbul in 2050 in eight workshop sessions with 35 intercultural participants. Additionally, it fostered a space to share experiences, and thoughts on futures, while meaningfully interacting with one another. Therefore, the contribution of this article to the migration futures field is two-fold: first, it showcases the potential of intercultural participatory futures workshops for exploring and constructing inclusive and participatory visions of migration futures, while contrasting collective visions and individual concerns; and second, it explains the relevance of this approach as a unique opportunity to foster intercultural meaningful social interactions, a key kind of interaction for social inclusion between individuals with migration backgrounds and host society.

大多数未来移民研究都侧重于对移民潮和移民危机等移民问题做出反应，而不是以个人的移民经历为中心探索其他的未来形象。现有的研究方法因其短期性、以问题为导向、以西方、男性主导和殖民化视角为主而备受批评，本文针对这些局限性，介绍了跨文化参与式未来研讨会，作为一种探索更具包容性和跨文化移民未来的新技术。在八次研讨会上，35 位跨文化参与者通过这种方法共同设想、构建和讨论了 2050 年伊斯坦布尔的其他移民未来。此外，这种方法还为与会者提供了一个分享经验和对未来的思考的空间，同时也促进了彼此之间有意义的互动。因此，本文对未来移民领域的贡献是双重的：首先，它展示了跨文化参与式未来研讨会在探索和构建包容性和参与性未来移民愿景方面的潜力，同时将集体愿景与个人关切进行对比；其次，它解释了这种方法的相关性，它是促进跨文化有意义的社会互动的独特机会，而这是具有移民背景的个人与东道国社会之间实现社会包容的一种关键互动。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating the transition: Unraveling the EU's different imaginaries for a just future 过渡时期的导航：解读欧盟对公正未来的不同想象

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103483

Niklas Klüh, Veith Selk, Michèle Knodt

The European Union has translated the imperative of Just Transition into a comprehensive mix of instruments. In this way, the EU formulates its future visions of a just and sustainable European society. However, researchers have not yet examined the mix of instruments as an object of “making of futures”. To understand these future visions and the practical implications for the implementation of the instrument mix, our paper draws on the concept of imaginaries. Through a typological content analysis of the instruments, we reveal that the instruments are rooted in two distinct imaginaries. The Impact Mitigation Imaginary conservatively seeks to mitigate the negative impacts of transition on the socio-economic status quo. The Social Justice Imaginary, by contrast, progressively aims for a more equitable society during the transition. Considering also the implementation aspects of the instruments, we show that the instrument mix is inconsistent and only partially credible. We conclude that the implementation of the mix shifts the negotiation between progressive and conservative visions of a just and sustainable future to the national level with its own (power) interests. In this process, several implementation challenges may arise.

欧盟已将 "公正过渡 "的必要性转化为一系列综合文书。通过这种方式，欧盟制定了公正和可持续的欧洲社会的未来愿景。然而，研究人员尚未将这些工具组合作为 "创造未来 "的对象加以研究。为了理解这些未来愿景及其对实施工具组合的实际影响，我们的论文借鉴了 "想象 "的概念。通过对工具的内容进行类型分析，我们发现这些工具植根于两种不同的想象。减轻影响想象 "保守地寻求减轻转型对社会经济现状的负面影响。与此相反，"社会公正想象 "的目标是在过渡时期逐步建立一个更加公平的社会。我们还考虑了这些工具的实施方面，结果表明，这些工具的组合并不一致，而且只有部分可信。我们得出的结论是，组合方案的实施将公正和可持续未来的进步愿景与保守愿景之间的谈判转移到了国家层面，而国家层面有其自身的（权力）利益。在这一过程中，可能会出现一些实施方面的挑战。

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引用次数: 0

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