Futures最新文献_第6页

Digitized utopias: Public service delivery in smart Stockholm 数字化乌托邦：智能斯德哥尔摩的公共服务提供

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103712

Marikken Wullf-Wathne , Karolina Isaksson

Digitization, often performed under the heading of becoming “smart,” has been acknowledged as an approach to transform the public sector in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. But what are the specific ideals for future urban government in cities aiming to boost digitization of the public sector? This paper reports the results of an exploration of the smart city initiative in Stockholm. Using utopianism as a lens, the paper reveals the ageing population as a crucial driver of the smart city agenda. Data from interviews, document analyses and observations demonstrate the overall ambition to reduce public sector workload by digitizing and automating tasks, thereby cutting public resource use. This corresponds to findings within the broader digital government scholarship. However, the analysis also shows that becoming smart might create new, complex tasks for the public sector. The paper discusses how these developments might encourage widespread privatization of services currently performed by the public sector. Applying a utopian perspective allows for debate on the ambitions for future improvements embedded in smart city initiatives. Ultimately, such a lens can be applied to a vast range of urban issues, opening avenues for speculative insights into how future cities are envisioned.

数字化通常在“智能化”的标题下进行，被认为是在效率和效果方面改变公共部门的一种方法。但是，未来城市政府在推动公共部门数字化方面的具体理想是什么？本文报告了斯德哥尔摩智慧城市倡议探索的结果。本文以乌托邦主义为视角，揭示了人口老龄化是智慧城市议程的关键驱动力。来自访谈、文件分析和观察的数据表明，通过任务数字化和自动化来减少公共部门工作量的总体目标，从而减少公共资源的使用。这与更广泛的数字政府奖学金的研究结果相一致。然而，分析也表明，变聪明可能会给公共部门带来新的、复杂的任务。本文讨论了这些发展如何可能鼓励目前由公共部门提供的服务的广泛私有化。运用乌托邦的观点，可以就智慧城市计划中未来改进的雄心壮志进行辩论。最终，这样的镜头可以应用于广泛的城市问题，为未来城市的设想开辟了投机的途径。

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引用次数: 0

Thinking from the perspective of imaginary future generations changes the public perception of sustainable management of water supply infrastructure – A large-scale questionnaire survey in a municipality of Japan 从想象的未来世代的角度思考改变了公众对供水基础设施可持续管理的看法——一项在日本一个城市进行的大规模问卷调查

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103709

Yukari Fuchigami , Taiga Ikenaga , Masashi Kuroda , Keishiro Hara

The aim of the present study was to apply the perspective of Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs), a method that has proved effective in generating “futurability,” to a large-scale questionnaire survey of residents in a Japanese municipality, in order to analyze the influence of IFGs on attitudes toward water supply infrastructure maintenance and management, the willingness to pay higher water rates, and attitudes toward regional integration of water supply services. In questionnaires distributed to 2000 randomly selected households in Suita City, Osaka Prefecture, respondents were asked to answer questions from the perspectives of both current generations and IFGs. The responses were then compared to statistically analyze the effects of adopting the perspective of IFGs. The results showed that incorporating the perspective of future generations makes it possible to increase the degree of acceptance among residents of increases in water rates, regional integration of water supply services, and other essential issues related to the management of water supply infrastructure, as well as to enable more flexible consideration of long-term water supply initiatives. The present study also demonstrated the influence of the pattern of description of the future society. For the group of respondents that held a pessimistic vision of the future from the perspective of IFGs, the effectiveness of applying IFGs for increasing support for water rate increases and the perception of a water rate increase being acceptable (%) was particularly high. These results can offer valuable insights for future examination of policies relating to sustainable water supply infrastructure maintenance.

本研究的目的是应用假想未来世代（IFGs）的观点，一种已被证明在产生“未来性”方面有效的方法，对日本一个城市的居民进行大规模问卷调查，以分析IFGs对供水基础设施维护和管理态度的影响，支付更高水费的意愿，以及对供水服务区域一体化的态度。在向大阪府水田市随机抽取的2000户家庭发放的问卷中，受访者被要求从当代人和ifg的角度回答问题。然后对这些反应进行比较，以统计分析采用ifg视角的效果。结果表明，考虑到未来几代人的观点，可以提高居民对水费上涨、供水服务区域一体化以及与供水基础设施管理有关的其他重要问题的接受程度，并能够更灵活地考虑长期供水举措。本研究还论证了未来社会描述模式的影响。对于从ifg的角度对未来持悲观看法的受访者群体来说，应用ifg增加对水费增加的支持和对水费增加可接受的看法（%）的有效性特别高。这些结果可以为未来审查与可持续供水基础设施维护有关的政策提供有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

The traps and pitfalls of anticipatory governance – Comparative cases of South Korea and the United Kingdom - 预见性治理的陷阱和陷阱——韩国和英国的比较案例

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103707

Kyungmoo Heo , Jonathan Joseph

This article examines anticipatory governance (AG) in South Korea and the UK, revealing contrasting approaches, shaped by unique historical, political, and social contexts. It explores the levels of trust, consensus, and empowerment and the dynamics of government, society, and citizens in both countries. First, Korea demonstrates proactive, future-oriented and anticipatory policymaking through strong government leadership, readiness for adaption, and the participation of and wellnurtured futures literacy of citizens. This is rooted in a tradition of development and the government’s consciousness of public reaction, trust and legitimacy. Second, while the UK embraces an AG approach such as horizon scanning and foresight, these efforts are hindered by short-term resilience thinking, an absence of education and awareness of the public, and fragmented implementation. In the UK’s AG, resilience becomes an excuse for incapacity in finding solutions to complex problems while shifting responsibility of a government to the public without adequate capacity-building. Instead of longer-term planning, AG is used to justify governance from a distance, the role of the market and the responsibilisation of individuals. Moreover, resilience becomes an excuse for incapacity to find solutions to complex problems while shifting responsibility from the government to the public without adequate capacity-building. From this perspective, the Korean approach would be criticised as rooted in an overly-modernist and state-interventionist strategy that still sees the government as the main actor in times of crisis. The article concludes with the traps and pitfalls of AG, constrained by relation-based dynamics, neoliberal ideologies, and a focus on resilience over longterm planning.

本文考察了韩国和英国的预见性治理（AG），揭示了由独特的历史、政治和社会背景形成的截然不同的方法。它探讨了两国政府、社会和公民的信任、共识和赋权水平以及动态。首先，韩国通过强有力的政府领导和适应能力，以及国民的参与和培养未来素养，展现了前瞻性、面向未来、前瞻性的政策制定。这植根于发展的传统和政府对公众反应、信任和合法性的意识。其次，尽管英国采用了地平线扫描和远见等AG方法，但这些努力受到短期弹性思维、缺乏教育和公众意识以及分散实施的阻碍。在英国，弹性成为无力找到复杂问题的解决方案的借口，同时在没有充分能力建设的情况下将政府的责任转移给公众。与长期规划不同的是，AG被用来证明远距离治理、市场作用和个人责任的合理性。此外，韧性成为无力解决复杂问题的借口，同时在没有充分能力建设的情况下将责任从政府转嫁给公众。从这个角度来看，韩国的做法将被批评为植根于一种过于现代主义和国家干预主义的战略，这种战略仍将政府视为危机时期的主要角色。文章总结了AG的陷阱和陷阱，受到基于关系的动态、新自由主义意识形态的限制，以及对长期规划的弹性的关注。

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引用次数: 0

(Counter)productive hope: Scrutinising the role of hope in sustainability （反）生产性希望：审视希望在可持续性中的作用

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103706

Marjo Lindroth , Heidi Sinevaara-Niskanen

Today, we witness a constant search for hope amidst global struggles. In the face of uncertainty and unpredictability, hope appears as a vehicle for building a better tomorrow. Especially in the context of global sustainability discussions, hope has been appealing; it has been seen as a forward-taking and action-generating force. Hope has also gained increasing interest in social scientific scholarship aiming to understand our sustainability challenges and the future of humanity, among other questions. Drawing on the scholarly discussions, this paper critically probes the links between sustainability and hope. It asks, to what extent can the cultivation of hope, aimed at building sustainable futures, be counterproductive? By focusing on two aspects of hope, namely temporality and (in)action, the paper brings forth the multifaceted nature of hope. This equivocality characterises hope and, as such, makes it utilisable for various ends. Hope, per se, can turn out to be harmful by preventing transformation or by bypassing the present sustainability concerns.

今天，我们看到在全球斗争中不断寻求希望。面对不确定性和不可预测性，希望似乎是建设更美好明天的工具。特别是在全球可持续发展讨论的背景下，希望一直很有吸引力；它一直被视为一股向前推进和产生行动的力量。霍普也对旨在理解我们的可持续性挑战和人类未来等问题的社会科学研究越来越感兴趣。在学术讨论的基础上，本文批判性地探讨了可持续性与希望之间的联系。它提出的问题是，培养旨在建设可持续未来的希望，会在多大程度上适得其反？本文通过对希望的时代性和行动性两个方面的分析，揭示了希望的多面性。这种模棱两可是希望的特点，并因此使它可用于各种目的。希望本身可能是有害的，因为它会阻止变革或绕过目前的可持续性问题。

引用次数: 0

Artificial Utopia: Simulation and artificially intelligent agents for exploring Utopian and democratized futures 人工乌托邦：用于探索乌托邦和民主化未来的模拟和人工智能代理

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103695

Yannick Oswald

Prevailing top-down systems in politics and economics struggle to keep pace with the pressing challenges of the 21st century, such as climate change, social inequality and conflict. Bottom-up democratization and participatory approaches in politics and economics are increasingly seen as promising alternatives to confront and overcome these issues, often with ‘utopian’ overtones, as proponents believe they may dramatically reshape political, social and ecological futures for the better and in contrast to contemporary authoritarian tendencies across various countries. Institutional specifics and the associated collective human behavior or culture remains little understood and debated, however. In this article, I propose a novel research agenda focusing on ‘utopian’ democratization efforts with formal and computational methods as well as with artificial intelligence – I call this agenda ‘Artificial Utopia’. Artificial Utopias provide safe testing grounds for new political ideas and economic policies ‘in-silico’ with reduced risk of negative consequences as compared to testing ideas in real-world contexts. An increasing number of advanced simulation and intelligence methods, that aim at representing human cognition and collective decision-making in more realistic ways, could benefit this process. This includes agent-based modeling, reinforcement learning, large language models and more. I clarify what some of these simulation approaches can contribute to the study of Artificial Utopias with the help of two institutional examples; the citizen assembly and the democratic firm. Finally, I discuss open questions and future research directions related to the broader Artificial Utopia agenda.

现行的自上而下的政治和经济体制难以跟上21世纪的紧迫挑战，如气候变化、社会不平等和冲突。政治和经济中自下而上的民主化和参与式方法越来越被视为对抗和克服这些问题的有希望的替代方案，通常带有“乌托邦”的色彩，因为支持者认为它们可能会戏剧性地重塑政治、社会和生态的未来，使其变得更好，与当代各国的专制倾向形成对比。然而，制度细节和相关的集体人类行为或文化仍然很少被理解和争论。在这篇文章中，我提出了一个新的研究议程，重点关注“乌托邦”民主化的努力，包括形式和计算方法以及人工智能——我称这个议程为“人工乌托邦”。与在现实世界中测试思想相比，人工乌托邦为新的政治思想和经济政策提供了“计算机化”的安全试验场，降低了负面后果的风险。越来越多的先进模拟和智能方法，旨在以更现实的方式代表人类认知和集体决策，可能有利于这一进程。这包括基于代理的建模、强化学习、大型语言模型等等。我通过两个制度性的例子阐明了这些模拟方法对人工乌托邦研究的贡献；公民大会和民主公司。最后，我讨论了与更广泛的人工乌托邦议程相关的开放性问题和未来的研究方向。

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引用次数: 0

Discourse in the future of work: How do business organizations and labor unions view automation? 未来工作的论述：商业组织和工会如何看待自动化？

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103704

Larry Liu

Within the future of work discourse, there is a growing public and scholarly concern about the displacement of jobs via automation and artificial intelligence. This article asks how actors such as business organizations and labor unions frame automation. An in-depth qualitative and computational topic modeling approach is used to capture the sentiment regarding automation from business federation (Business Roundtable, National Association of Manufacturers, US Chamber of Commerce) and labor union (AFL-CIO and other industry/ occupational unions) websites. The finding is that business federations are broadly supportive of automation, citing the needs for US companies to remain competitive producers internationally and bemoaning the lack of skilled workers to operate new technologies. Labor unions have exhibited mixed views on technology, with the national federation endorsing it as long as labor retains a voice. Some industry unions cast technology as a labor-displacing threat, others emphasize the opportunities for unions to provide job training, others reflect more mixed views. These divergent views reflect the underlying class conflict, where business interests benefit more from technology than organized labor and business power is more pervasive due to their uniform position on automation. Businesses promote an effectively dystopian future of work vision, while unions attempt to avert dystopia.

在未来的工作话语中，越来越多的公众和学者担心自动化和人工智能会取代工作。本文询问商业组织和工会等行动者如何构建自动化。深入的定性和计算主题建模方法用于捕获来自商业联合会（商业圆桌会议，全国制造商协会，美国商会）和工会（AFL-CIO和其他行业/职业工会）网站的关于自动化的情绪。调查发现，商业联合会普遍支持自动化，理由是美国企业需要保持在国际上具有竞争力的生产商，并哀叹缺乏熟练工人来操作新技术。在技术问题上，各工会表现出了不同的观点，只要工会有发言权，全国总联合会就支持技术。一些行业工会将技术视为取代劳动力的威胁，另一些则强调工会提供就业培训的机会，还有一些则反映出更复杂的观点。这些不同的观点反映了潜在的阶级冲突，商业利益比有组织的劳工更能从技术中获益，而且由于他们对自动化的统一立场，商业权力更普遍。企业宣扬一种实际上是反乌托邦式的未来工作愿景，而工会则试图避免反乌托邦。

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引用次数: 0

Constructing just mobility futures 构建流动性的未来

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103698

Ruth Nelson , BinBin Pearce , Martijn Warnier , Trivik Verma

Scenario planning has become a common approach within transportation research to understand the varying impacts of transportation planning. By examining a range of uncertainties, scenarios can be developed that enable an exploration of alternative future visions of the world. Whilst there has been growing concern over the equity impacts of public transport investments, particularly in relation to accessibility of social and economic opportunities, equity of access considerations remain an underdeveloped area within transportation scenarios research. This has tremendous consequences for realising socially just mobility futures. Utilising the case study of Cape Town, in South Africa several transport scenarios are collectively developed through stakeholder engagement by analysing a number of parameters that have been identified as significant operational factors and policy levers. We develop representative urban network models for each scenario and evaluate equity of access to places of employment using a comparative equity framework. We find that a continuation of past trends leads to greater inequities, whereas alternative participatory future visions focused on the adoption of integrated transport and cycling indicate potential to decrease inequities. Overall the study highlights how the adoption of transportation solutions towards greater accessibility is not only an engineering problem, but a human problem related to institutional capacity, trust, coordination, community agency and political vision.

情景规划已经成为交通研究中了解交通规划不同影响的常用方法。通过对一系列不确定因素的研究，可以开发出能够探索世界未来不同愿景的情景。虽然人们越来越关注公共交通投资的公平影响，特别是在社会和经济机会的可及性方面，但在交通情景研究中，公平考虑仍然是一个不发达的领域。这对实现社会公平的流动性未来有着巨大的影响。利用南非开普敦的案例研究，通过分析已被确定为重要运营因素和政策杠杆的一些参数，通过利益相关者的参与，共同制定了几个运输方案。我们为每种情况开发了具有代表性的城市网络模型，并使用比较公平框架评估就业场所的公平性。我们发现，延续过去的趋势会导致更大的不平等，而以采用综合交通和自行车为重点的替代性参与性未来愿景则显示出减少不平等的潜力。总体而言，该研究强调了如何采用交通解决方案来提高可达性不仅是一个工程问题，而且是一个与机构能力、信任、协调、社区机构和政治愿景相关的人类问题。

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引用次数: 0

Embracing the digital horizon: Future scenarios for the Dutch higher education system 拥抱数字地平线：荷兰高等教育系统的未来前景

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103702

Marie Louise Blankesteijn, Amir Ghorbani

Traditional teacher-oriented education models are becoming obsolete, digital technologies are reshaping the landscape of higher education, and governments are cutting university budgets. Dutch university leaders, as a global leaders in higher education, must consider these profound changes to ensure organizational resilience. Scenario planning is a valuable technique for identifying future drivers and envisioning possible futures. This paper aims to elaborate future scenarios of Dutch higher education in horizon 2040. By combination of scenario archetypes method and quantitative text analysis techniques, we analyzed 80 future-oriented documents and identified eight driving forces that shape the future of Dutch higher education system: (1) digital transformation; (2) demographic changes; (3) globalization and internationalization; (4) economic and labor market needs; (5) Sustainability and climate change; (6) funding challenges; (7) societal and cultural shifts; and (8) policy and governance. Based on these drivers, we outlined four distinct scenarios: (1) "Digital Horizons: Navigating the Future of AI-Driven Higher Education"; (2) "The Great Decline: The Collapse of Higher Education Systems"; (3) "Guardians of Sustainability: A Disciplined Approach to Higher Education"; and (4) "Beyond Degrees: The Rise of Lifelong, Personalized Education." Scenario 1 is the most probable scenario (55 %), while scenario 2 is the least probable scenario (1 %). Theoretically, quantitative text analysis can offer promising methodology for futures studies by exponential growth of textual data. Practically, these drivers and scenarios provide Dutch university leaders with a holistic framework to design strategic planning, and initiatives, ensuring their universities remain resilience in evolving landscape.

传统的以教师为导向的教育模式正在过时，数字技术正在重塑高等教育的格局，政府正在削减大学的预算。荷兰大学的领导者，作为全球高等教育的领导者，必须考虑这些深刻的变化，以确保组织的弹性。情景规划是一种有价值的技术，用于识别未来的驱动因素和设想可能的未来。本文旨在阐述2040年荷兰高等教育的未来情景。通过场景原型法和定量文本分析技术的结合，我们分析了80个面向未来的文件，并确定了塑造荷兰高等教育系统未来的八个驱动力：(1)数字化转型；(2)人口变化；(3)全球化和国际化；(4)经济和劳动力市场需求；(5)可持续发展与气候变化；(6)资金挑战；(7)社会文化变迁；(8)政策和治理。基于这些驱动因素，我们概述了四种不同的情景：(1)“数字视野：人工智能驱动的高等教育的未来”；(2)《大衰退：高等教育体系的崩溃》；(3)“可持续发展的守护者：高等教育的纪律方针”；(4)《超越学位：终身个性化教育的兴起》。场景1是最可能的场景（55% %），而场景2是最不可能的场景（1% %）。从理论上讲，定量文本分析可以通过文本数据的指数增长为期货研究提供有前途的方法。实际上，这些驱动因素和场景为荷兰大学领导者提供了设计战略规划和举措的整体框架，确保他们的大学在不断变化的景观中保持弹性。

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引用次数: 0

Real-Time AI Delphi: A novel method for decision-making and foresight contexts 实时人工智能德尔福：一种决策和预见环境的新方法

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103703

Yuri Calleo, Francesco Pilla

This paper introduces the Real-Time AI Delphi (RT-AID), a novel methodology designed to enhance the traditional Real-Time Delphi method by integrating artificial intelligence models. The Delphi method, known for its structured approach to facilitating expert consensus or gathering relevant opinions on complex issues, has evolved over time but still faces challenges such as extended timeframes and expert dropout rates. RT-AID addresses these limitations by utilizing pre-trained generative transformers as a supporting agent, facilitating convergence of opinions and fostering real-time interaction among AI-generated perspectives. RT-AID is implemented through a web-based open system, with real-time analysis and statistical summaries allowing for efficient decision-making and futures exploration. The method is validated through a preliminary case study in the climate domain, with a 10-year time horizon for the city of Dublin. The results confirm that AI-supported expert opinions not only contribute interesting and valuable perspectives but also accelerate the convergence process when the experts’ sample is limited. This demonstrates the method’s ability to enhance both the collection and analysis of data while generating more diverse and creative scenarios for strategic decision-making. This innovation represents a significant advancement in futures studies, offering increased agility, improved scenario generation, and faster consensus-building through AI integration.

本文介绍了实时人工智能Delphi (RT-AID)，这是一种通过集成人工智能模型来改进传统实时Delphi方法的新方法。德尔菲法以其促进专家共识或收集复杂问题相关意见的结构化方法而闻名，随着时间的推移，该方法不断发展，但仍然面临着诸如时间框架延长和专家辍学率等挑战。RT-AID通过使用预先训练的生成式变形器作为支持代理来解决这些限制，促进意见的融合，并促进人工智能生成的观点之间的实时交互。RT-AID通过基于网络的开放系统实施，具有实时分析和统计摘要，可实现高效决策和未来探索。该方法通过气候领域的初步案例研究进行了验证，都柏林市的时间跨度为10年。结果证实，人工智能支持的专家意见不仅提供了有趣和有价值的观点，而且在专家样本有限的情况下加速了收敛过程。这表明该方法能够增强数据的收集和分析，同时为战略决策产生更多样化和创造性的场景。这一创新代表了未来研究的重大进步，提供了更高的灵活性，改进的场景生成，并通过人工智能集成更快地建立共识。

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引用次数: 0

Measuring the intangible: A multidimensional framework for assessing societal engagement in participatory foresight 衡量无形：参与性预见中评估社会参与的多维框架

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103699

Agnė Paliokaitė , Erika Vaiginienė , Dovilė Gaižauskienė , Aurinta Elenskė

This paper explores the impacts of participatory foresight and societal engagement in policymaking, specifically focusing on Lithuania’s “Lithuania 2050” national visioning process. Participatory foresight integrates diverse stakeholders in strategic processes, yielding tangible outputs like policies and plans, as well as intangible benefits such as increased trust, shared responsibility, and democratic engagement. However, its qualitative and societal impacts often remain underexplored, limiting foresight’s transformative potential. The study proposes and empirically validates a conceptual framework to assess the multidimensional impacts of participatory foresight, emphasizing immediate and intermediate outcomes and focusing on intangible impacts of societal engagement. Using survey data from “Lithuania 2050” co-creators, the research validates diagnostic constructs for participatory foresight impacts using exploratory factor analysis. The proposed final framework bridges theoretical and practical gaps, providing tools for rigorous impact evaluation and highlighting participatory foresight’s potential to enhance inclusivity, resilience, and open governance. Limitations include the need for further validation and long-term impact framework development. This study contributes to advancing participatory foresight impact assessment models, developing valid scales for measuring the impacts of participatory foresight in quantitative research, and fostering open governance.

本文探讨了参与式预见和社会参与对政策制定的影响，特别关注立陶宛的“立陶宛2050”国家愿景过程。参与式远见将不同的利益相关者纳入战略进程，产生政策和计划等有形产出，以及增加信任、分担责任和民主参与等无形利益。然而，其质量和社会影响往往尚未得到充分探索，限制了远见的变革潜力。该研究提出并实证验证了一个概念性框架，以评估参与性远见的多维影响，强调即时和中期结果，并关注社会参与的无形影响。利用“立陶宛2050”共同创作者的调查数据，研究利用探索性因素分析验证了参与性远见影响的诊断结构。拟议的最终框架弥合了理论和实践的差距，为严格的影响评估提供了工具，并突出了参与式远见在增强包容性、复原力和开放治理方面的潜力。限制包括需要进一步验证和长期影响框架的开发。本研究有助于完善参与式前瞻影响评估模型，开发量化研究中有效的参与式前瞻影响测量量表，促进开放式治理。

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引用次数: 0