The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities, and study the price impact of the transition in a structural scenario analysis. Prices of these four metals would reach previous historical peaks but for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario, potentially derailing the energy transition. Their production value would rise nearly four-fold to USD 11 trillion for the period 2021 to 2040. These four metals markets alone could become as important to the global economy as the oil market.
{"title":"Energy Transition Metals: Bottleneck for Net-Zero Emissions?","authors":"L. Boer, Andrea Pescatori, M. Stuermer","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad039","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities, and study the price impact of the transition in a structural scenario analysis. Prices of these four metals would reach previous historical peaks but for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario, potentially derailing the energy transition. Their production value would rise nearly four-fold to USD 11 trillion for the period 2021 to 2040. These four metals markets alone could become as important to the global economy as the oil market.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46134332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study a model of time preference in which both current consumption and the memory of past consumption enter “experienced utility”—or the felicity—of an individual. An individual derives overall utility from her own felicity and the anticipated felicities of future selves. These postulates permit an agent to anticipate future regret in current decisions, and generate a set of novel testable implications in line with empirical evidence. The model can be applied to disparate phenomena, including present bias, equilibrium savings behavior, anticipation of regret, and career concerns.
{"title":"Past and Future: Backward and Forward Discounting","authors":"Debraj Ray, Nikhil Vellodi, Ruqu Wang","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad036","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We study a model of time preference in which both current consumption and the memory of past consumption enter “experienced utility”—or the felicity—of an individual. An individual derives overall utility from her own felicity and the anticipated felicities of future selves. These postulates permit an agent to anticipate future regret in current decisions, and generate a set of novel testable implications in line with empirical evidence. The model can be applied to disparate phenomena, including present bias, equilibrium savings behavior, anticipation of regret, and career concerns.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41465565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We present a unified framework to study interconnections between business cycle and international trade models. This unified framework is built upon the standard competitive, representative-firm international real business cycle model and features production externalities in the intermediate and final goods sectors. Our main theoretical result is that this unified framework is equivalent in aggregate implications to dynamic international trade models featuring monopolistic competition, endogenous entry and exit, and heterogeneous firms. We show that a negative capital externality in the intermediate good sector is required to fit the data. This presents a puzzle for the literature because when viewed through the lens of our unified framework, we demonstrate that the standard assumptions used in dynamic trade models imply a positive capital externality.
{"title":"Aggregate Properties of Open Economy Models with Expanding Varieties","authors":"Saroj Bhattarai, Konstantin Kucheryavyy","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad037","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We present a unified framework to study interconnections between business cycle and international trade models. This unified framework is built upon the standard competitive, representative-firm international real business cycle model and features production externalities in the intermediate and final goods sectors. Our main theoretical result is that this unified framework is equivalent in aggregate implications to dynamic international trade models featuring monopolistic competition, endogenous entry and exit, and heterogeneous firms. We show that a negative capital externality in the intermediate good sector is required to fit the data. This presents a puzzle for the literature because when viewed through the lens of our unified framework, we demonstrate that the standard assumptions used in dynamic trade models imply a positive capital externality.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135752274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dan Zeltzer, Liran Einav, Joseph Rashba, Ran D. Balicer
Abstract We estimate the impact of increased access to telemedicine following widespread adoption during the March–April 2020 COVID-19 lockdown period. We focus on the post-lockdown period, which was characterized by near-complete reopening. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we compare primary care episodes before and after the lockdown between patients with high and low access to telemedicine, as defined by their primary care physician adoption. Our results show that access to telemedicine leads to slightly more primary care visits but lower spending. Visits involve fewer prescriptions and more follow-ups, but we find no evidence of missed diagnoses or adverse outcomes. Results suggest that telemedicine does not compromise care quality or raise costs.
{"title":"The Impact of Increased Access to Telemedicine","authors":"Dan Zeltzer, Liran Einav, Joseph Rashba, Ran D. Balicer","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad035","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We estimate the impact of increased access to telemedicine following widespread adoption during the March–April 2020 COVID-19 lockdown period. We focus on the post-lockdown period, which was characterized by near-complete reopening. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we compare primary care episodes before and after the lockdown between patients with high and low access to telemedicine, as defined by their primary care physician adoption. Our results show that access to telemedicine leads to slightly more primary care visits but lower spending. Visits involve fewer prescriptions and more follow-ups, but we find no evidence of missed diagnoses or adverse outcomes. Results suggest that telemedicine does not compromise care quality or raise costs.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135741164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Recruitment intensity is important for the matching process in the labor market. Using unique linked survey–administrative data, we investigate the relationships between hiring and recruitment policies at the establishment level. Faster hiring goes along with higher search effort, lower hiring standards, and more generous wages. We develop a directed search model that links these patterns to the employment adjustments of heterogeneous firms. The model provides a novel structural decomposition of the matching function that we use to evaluate the relative importance of these recruitment policies at the aggregate level. The calibrated model shows that hiring standards play an important role in explaining differences in matching efficiency across labor markets defined as region/skill cross-products and for the impact of labor market policy, whereas search effort and wage policies play only a minor role.
{"title":"Recruitment Policies, Job-Filling Rates, and Matching Efficiency","authors":"Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, Hermann Gartner, Leo Kaas","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad034","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Recruitment intensity is important for the matching process in the labor market. Using unique linked survey–administrative data, we investigate the relationships between hiring and recruitment policies at the establishment level. Faster hiring goes along with higher search effort, lower hiring standards, and more generous wages. We develop a directed search model that links these patterns to the employment adjustments of heterogeneous firms. The model provides a novel structural decomposition of the matching function that we use to evaluate the relative importance of these recruitment policies at the aggregate level. The calibrated model shows that hiring standards play an important role in explaining differences in matching efficiency across labor markets defined as region/skill cross-products and for the impact of labor market policy, whereas search effort and wage policies play only a minor role.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135945397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Daniel J Benjamin, Jakina Debnam Guzman, Marc Fleurbaey, Ori Heffetz, Miles Kimball
Abstract What utility notion—e.g. flow/lifetime, self/family-centered—do self-reported well-being (SWB) questions measure? Existing applications make different assumptions regarding the (i) life domains, (ii) time horizons, and (iii) other-regarding preferences captured by SWB data. To obtain relevant evidence, we ask survey respondents what they had in mind regarding (i)–(iii) when answering commonly used—life satisfaction, happiness, ladder—and new SWB questions. We find that respondents’ self-reports differ from researchers’ assumptions and differ across SWB questions and sociodemographic groups. At the same time, simple SWB-question wording tweaks are effective in moving self-reports toward desired interpretations. We outline actionable suggestions for SWB researchers. (JEL: D69, D90, I31)
{"title":"What do Happiness Data Mean? Theory and Survey Evidence","authors":"Daniel J Benjamin, Jakina Debnam Guzman, Marc Fleurbaey, Ori Heffetz, Miles Kimball","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad026","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract What utility notion—e.g. flow/lifetime, self/family-centered—do self-reported well-being (SWB) questions measure? Existing applications make different assumptions regarding the (i) life domains, (ii) time horizons, and (iii) other-regarding preferences captured by SWB data. To obtain relevant evidence, we ask survey respondents what they had in mind regarding (i)–(iii) when answering commonly used—life satisfaction, happiness, ladder—and new SWB questions. We find that respondents’ self-reports differ from researchers’ assumptions and differ across SWB questions and sociodemographic groups. At the same time, simple SWB-question wording tweaks are effective in moving self-reports toward desired interpretations. We outline actionable suggestions for SWB researchers. (JEL: D69, D90, I31)","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"138 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134920983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper introduces a model of individual behavior based on identity, a person’s sense of self. The individual evaluates situations, i.e., sets of available actions given a belief about the actions’ uncertain payoffs. In some situations, a psychological cost arises because the individual’s identity prescribes an action that differs from the one maximizing material benefits. The model shows that a common process of weighing psychological costs and material benefits drives the choice of both information and future opportunities. As a result, information avoidance is akin to preferring fewer opportunities, such as crossing the street to avoid a fundraiser. The model provides a coherent rationalization for diverse behaviors, including willful ignorance, opting out of social dilemmas, and excess entry into competitive environments. The psychological cost varies non-monotonically with the quality of information or with having more opportunities. Non-monotonicity complicates the identification of prescriptions from behavior, a difficulty that is partially resolvable by observing specific choices.
{"title":"Identity, Information and Situations","authors":"Daniele Pennesi","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad033","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper introduces a model of individual behavior based on identity, a person’s sense of self. The individual evaluates situations, i.e., sets of available actions given a belief about the actions’ uncertain payoffs. In some situations, a psychological cost arises because the individual’s identity prescribes an action that differs from the one maximizing material benefits. The model shows that a common process of weighing psychological costs and material benefits drives the choice of both information and future opportunities. As a result, information avoidance is akin to preferring fewer opportunities, such as crossing the street to avoid a fundraiser. The model provides a coherent rationalization for diverse behaviors, including willful ignorance, opting out of social dilemmas, and excess entry into competitive environments. The psychological cost varies non-monotonically with the quality of information or with having more opportunities. Non-monotonicity complicates the identification of prescriptions from behavior, a difficulty that is partially resolvable by observing specific choices.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48738164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Consistent evidence across important domains shows that people’s decisions can depend on the order or emphasis with which the attributes of the available options are presented to them. We introduce the first model of such framing effects, which we characterize in terms of observable behavior. We apply the model to study how the strategic use of attribute framing affects the outcomes of negotiations and competition in markets. We extend the model to stochastic-choice frameworks, which are often used in practice.
{"title":"Listing Specs: The Effect of Framing Attributes on Choice","authors":"S. Galperti, Francesco Cerigioni","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad032","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Consistent evidence across important domains shows that people’s decisions can depend on the order or emphasis with which the attributes of the available options are presented to them. We introduce the first model of such framing effects, which we characterize in terms of observable behavior. We apply the model to study how the strategic use of attribute framing affects the outcomes of negotiations and competition in markets. We extend the model to stochastic-choice frameworks, which are often used in practice.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42345922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Georg Duernecker, Berthold Herrendorf, Á. Valentinyi
Baumol (1967) observed that developed economies suffer from cost disease, i.e., aggregate productivity growth falls because structural change reallocates production to services with low productivity growth. We document that cost disease importantly contributed to the productivity growth slowdown in the postwar U.S. To assess how severe cost disease may become, we build a model of structural change among the goods sector and broad services sectors. Calibrating the model to the postwar U.S. implies that broad categories of services are substitutes and the services with low productivity growth do not take over production. Simulating the calibrated model forward implies that future cost disease will be less severe than past one.
{"title":"Structural Change within the Services Sector and the Future of Cost Disease","authors":"Georg Duernecker, Berthold Herrendorf, Á. Valentinyi","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad030","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Baumol (1967) observed that developed economies suffer from cost disease, i.e., aggregate productivity growth falls because structural change reallocates production to services with low productivity growth. We document that cost disease importantly contributed to the productivity growth slowdown in the postwar U.S. To assess how severe cost disease may become, we build a model of structural change among the goods sector and broad services sectors. Calibrating the model to the postwar U.S. implies that broad categories of services are substitutes and the services with low productivity growth do not take over production. Simulating the calibrated model forward implies that future cost disease will be less severe than past one.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42525441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
When financial contracts are not fully enforceable and firms observe their own nominal sales before the observation of the aggregate nominal price, the optimal financial contract is not fully indexed to inflation. Because of the limited nominal indexation, which is endogenous in the model, unanticipated inflation affects aggregate investment and future economic activity. The macroeconomic volatility induced by price uncertainty, however, is not monotone: it first increases and then decreases with nominal price uncertainty. We also show that the degree of nominal indexation declines with real idiosyncratic volatility and the impact of an inflation shock decreases with nominal indexation. Using firm-level data from Canada, we find that both predictions are supported by the data.
{"title":"Limited Nominal Indexation of Optimal Financial Contracts","authors":"Césaire Meh, Vincenzo Quadrini, Yaz Terajima","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad029","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 When financial contracts are not fully enforceable and firms observe their own nominal sales before the observation of the aggregate nominal price, the optimal financial contract is not fully indexed to inflation. Because of the limited nominal indexation, which is endogenous in the model, unanticipated inflation affects aggregate investment and future economic activity. The macroeconomic volatility induced by price uncertainty, however, is not monotone: it first increases and then decreases with nominal price uncertainty. We also show that the degree of nominal indexation declines with real idiosyncratic volatility and the impact of an inflation shock decreases with nominal indexation. Using firm-level data from Canada, we find that both predictions are supported by the data.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76006958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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