Abstract We study horizontal between-group cultural transmission using Stalin’s ethnic deportations as a historical experiment. Over 2 million Soviet citizens, mostly Germans and Chechens, were forcibly relocated from the western to eastern parts of the USSR during WWII solely based on ethnicity. As a result, the native population of the deportation destinations was exogenously exposed to groups with drastically different gender norms and behavior. We combine historical and contemporary data to document that present-day gender equality in labor force participation, business leadership, and fertility as well as pro-gender-equality attitudes are higher among local native population of deportation destinations with a larger presence of Protestant compared to Muslim deportees. The effects are stronger for culturally closer groups and when adopting deportee norms is less costly. The results cannot be explained by selection, vertical cultural transmission, or deportee impact on the local economy. The evidence strongly suggests that gender norms diffused horizontally from deportees to the local population through imitation and learning.
{"title":"Diffusion of Gender Norms: Evidence from Stalin’s Ethnic Deportations","authors":"Alexandra Jarotschkin, Ekaterina Zhuravskaya","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad040","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study horizontal between-group cultural transmission using Stalin’s ethnic deportations as a historical experiment. Over 2 million Soviet citizens, mostly Germans and Chechens, were forcibly relocated from the western to eastern parts of the USSR during WWII solely based on ethnicity. As a result, the native population of the deportation destinations was exogenously exposed to groups with drastically different gender norms and behavior. We combine historical and contemporary data to document that present-day gender equality in labor force participation, business leadership, and fertility as well as pro-gender-equality attitudes are higher among local native population of deportation destinations with a larger presence of Protestant compared to Muslim deportees. The effects are stronger for culturally closer groups and when adopting deportee norms is less costly. The results cannot be explained by selection, vertical cultural transmission, or deportee impact on the local economy. The evidence strongly suggests that gender norms diffused horizontally from deportees to the local population through imitation and learning.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135288220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Leonardo Bursztyn, Davide Cantoni, Patricia Funk, Felix Schönenberger, Noam Yuchtman
We provide evidence of a causal effect of anticipated election closeness on voter turnout, exploiting the precise day-level timing of the release of Swiss national poll results for high-stakes federal referenda, and a novel dataset on daily mail-in voting for the canton of Geneva. Using an event study design, we find that the release of a closer poll causes voter turnout to sharply rise immediately after poll release, with no differential pre-release turnout levels or trends. We provide evidence that polls affect turnout by providing information shaping beliefs about closeness. The effects of close polls are the largest where newspapers report on them most; and, the introduction of polls had significantly larger effects in politically unrepresentative municipalities, where locally available signals of closeness are less correlated with national closeness. We then provide evidence that the effect of close polls is heterogeneous, with an asymmetric effect leading to a higher vote share for the underdog. The effect sizes we estimate are large enough to flip high-stakes election outcomes under plausible counterfactual scenarios. (JEL: D72, D83, P16)
{"title":"Identifying the Effect of Election Closeness on Voter Turnout: Evidence from Swiss Referenda","authors":"Leonardo Bursztyn, Davide Cantoni, Patricia Funk, Felix Schönenberger, Noam Yuchtman","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad038","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We provide evidence of a causal effect of anticipated election closeness on voter turnout, exploiting the precise day-level timing of the release of Swiss national poll results for high-stakes federal referenda, and a novel dataset on daily mail-in voting for the canton of Geneva. Using an event study design, we find that the release of a closer poll causes voter turnout to sharply rise immediately after poll release, with no differential pre-release turnout levels or trends. We provide evidence that polls affect turnout by providing information shaping beliefs about closeness. The effects of close polls are the largest where newspapers report on them most; and, the introduction of polls had significantly larger effects in politically unrepresentative municipalities, where locally available signals of closeness are less correlated with national closeness. We then provide evidence that the effect of close polls is heterogeneous, with an asymmetric effect leading to a higher vote share for the underdog. The effect sizes we estimate are large enough to flip high-stakes election outcomes under plausible counterfactual scenarios. (JEL: D72, D83, P16)","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47970175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities, and study the price impact of the transition in a structural scenario analysis. Prices of these four metals would reach previous historical peaks but for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario, potentially derailing the energy transition. Their production value would rise nearly four-fold to USD 11 trillion for the period 2021 to 2040. These four metals markets alone could become as important to the global economy as the oil market.
{"title":"Energy Transition Metals: Bottleneck for Net-Zero Emissions?","authors":"L. Boer, Andrea Pescatori, M. Stuermer","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad039","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities, and study the price impact of the transition in a structural scenario analysis. Prices of these four metals would reach previous historical peaks but for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario, potentially derailing the energy transition. Their production value would rise nearly four-fold to USD 11 trillion for the period 2021 to 2040. These four metals markets alone could become as important to the global economy as the oil market.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46134332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study a model of time preference in which both current consumption and the memory of past consumption enter “experienced utility”—or the felicity—of an individual. An individual derives overall utility from her own felicity and the anticipated felicities of future selves. These postulates permit an agent to anticipate future regret in current decisions, and generate a set of novel testable implications in line with empirical evidence. The model can be applied to disparate phenomena, including present bias, equilibrium savings behavior, anticipation of regret, and career concerns.
{"title":"Past and Future: Backward and Forward Discounting","authors":"Debraj Ray, Nikhil Vellodi, Ruqu Wang","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad036","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We study a model of time preference in which both current consumption and the memory of past consumption enter “experienced utility”—or the felicity—of an individual. An individual derives overall utility from her own felicity and the anticipated felicities of future selves. These postulates permit an agent to anticipate future regret in current decisions, and generate a set of novel testable implications in line with empirical evidence. The model can be applied to disparate phenomena, including present bias, equilibrium savings behavior, anticipation of regret, and career concerns.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41465565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We present a unified framework to study interconnections between business cycle and international trade models. This unified framework is built upon the standard competitive, representative-firm international real business cycle model and features production externalities in the intermediate and final goods sectors. Our main theoretical result is that this unified framework is equivalent in aggregate implications to dynamic international trade models featuring monopolistic competition, endogenous entry and exit, and heterogeneous firms. We show that a negative capital externality in the intermediate good sector is required to fit the data. This presents a puzzle for the literature because when viewed through the lens of our unified framework, we demonstrate that the standard assumptions used in dynamic trade models imply a positive capital externality.
{"title":"Aggregate Properties of Open Economy Models with Expanding Varieties","authors":"Saroj Bhattarai, Konstantin Kucheryavyy","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad037","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We present a unified framework to study interconnections between business cycle and international trade models. This unified framework is built upon the standard competitive, representative-firm international real business cycle model and features production externalities in the intermediate and final goods sectors. Our main theoretical result is that this unified framework is equivalent in aggregate implications to dynamic international trade models featuring monopolistic competition, endogenous entry and exit, and heterogeneous firms. We show that a negative capital externality in the intermediate good sector is required to fit the data. This presents a puzzle for the literature because when viewed through the lens of our unified framework, we demonstrate that the standard assumptions used in dynamic trade models imply a positive capital externality.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135752274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dan Zeltzer, Liran Einav, Joseph Rashba, Ran D. Balicer
Abstract We estimate the impact of increased access to telemedicine following widespread adoption during the March–April 2020 COVID-19 lockdown period. We focus on the post-lockdown period, which was characterized by near-complete reopening. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we compare primary care episodes before and after the lockdown between patients with high and low access to telemedicine, as defined by their primary care physician adoption. Our results show that access to telemedicine leads to slightly more primary care visits but lower spending. Visits involve fewer prescriptions and more follow-ups, but we find no evidence of missed diagnoses or adverse outcomes. Results suggest that telemedicine does not compromise care quality or raise costs.
{"title":"The Impact of Increased Access to Telemedicine","authors":"Dan Zeltzer, Liran Einav, Joseph Rashba, Ran D. Balicer","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad035","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We estimate the impact of increased access to telemedicine following widespread adoption during the March–April 2020 COVID-19 lockdown period. We focus on the post-lockdown period, which was characterized by near-complete reopening. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we compare primary care episodes before and after the lockdown between patients with high and low access to telemedicine, as defined by their primary care physician adoption. Our results show that access to telemedicine leads to slightly more primary care visits but lower spending. Visits involve fewer prescriptions and more follow-ups, but we find no evidence of missed diagnoses or adverse outcomes. Results suggest that telemedicine does not compromise care quality or raise costs.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135741164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Recruitment intensity is important for the matching process in the labor market. Using unique linked survey–administrative data, we investigate the relationships between hiring and recruitment policies at the establishment level. Faster hiring goes along with higher search effort, lower hiring standards, and more generous wages. We develop a directed search model that links these patterns to the employment adjustments of heterogeneous firms. The model provides a novel structural decomposition of the matching function that we use to evaluate the relative importance of these recruitment policies at the aggregate level. The calibrated model shows that hiring standards play an important role in explaining differences in matching efficiency across labor markets defined as region/skill cross-products and for the impact of labor market policy, whereas search effort and wage policies play only a minor role.
{"title":"Recruitment Policies, Job-Filling Rates, and Matching Efficiency","authors":"Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, Hermann Gartner, Leo Kaas","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad034","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Recruitment intensity is important for the matching process in the labor market. Using unique linked survey–administrative data, we investigate the relationships between hiring and recruitment policies at the establishment level. Faster hiring goes along with higher search effort, lower hiring standards, and more generous wages. We develop a directed search model that links these patterns to the employment adjustments of heterogeneous firms. The model provides a novel structural decomposition of the matching function that we use to evaluate the relative importance of these recruitment policies at the aggregate level. The calibrated model shows that hiring standards play an important role in explaining differences in matching efficiency across labor markets defined as region/skill cross-products and for the impact of labor market policy, whereas search effort and wage policies play only a minor role.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135945397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Daniel J Benjamin, Jakina Debnam Guzman, Marc Fleurbaey, Ori Heffetz, Miles Kimball
Abstract What utility notion—e.g. flow/lifetime, self/family-centered—do self-reported well-being (SWB) questions measure? Existing applications make different assumptions regarding the (i) life domains, (ii) time horizons, and (iii) other-regarding preferences captured by SWB data. To obtain relevant evidence, we ask survey respondents what they had in mind regarding (i)–(iii) when answering commonly used—life satisfaction, happiness, ladder—and new SWB questions. We find that respondents’ self-reports differ from researchers’ assumptions and differ across SWB questions and sociodemographic groups. At the same time, simple SWB-question wording tweaks are effective in moving self-reports toward desired interpretations. We outline actionable suggestions for SWB researchers. (JEL: D69, D90, I31)
{"title":"What do Happiness Data Mean? Theory and Survey Evidence","authors":"Daniel J Benjamin, Jakina Debnam Guzman, Marc Fleurbaey, Ori Heffetz, Miles Kimball","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad026","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract What utility notion—e.g. flow/lifetime, self/family-centered—do self-reported well-being (SWB) questions measure? Existing applications make different assumptions regarding the (i) life domains, (ii) time horizons, and (iii) other-regarding preferences captured by SWB data. To obtain relevant evidence, we ask survey respondents what they had in mind regarding (i)–(iii) when answering commonly used—life satisfaction, happiness, ladder—and new SWB questions. We find that respondents’ self-reports differ from researchers’ assumptions and differ across SWB questions and sociodemographic groups. At the same time, simple SWB-question wording tweaks are effective in moving self-reports toward desired interpretations. We outline actionable suggestions for SWB researchers. (JEL: D69, D90, I31)","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"138 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134920983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper introduces a model of individual behavior based on identity, a person’s sense of self. The individual evaluates situations, i.e., sets of available actions given a belief about the actions’ uncertain payoffs. In some situations, a psychological cost arises because the individual’s identity prescribes an action that differs from the one maximizing material benefits. The model shows that a common process of weighing psychological costs and material benefits drives the choice of both information and future opportunities. As a result, information avoidance is akin to preferring fewer opportunities, such as crossing the street to avoid a fundraiser. The model provides a coherent rationalization for diverse behaviors, including willful ignorance, opting out of social dilemmas, and excess entry into competitive environments. The psychological cost varies non-monotonically with the quality of information or with having more opportunities. Non-monotonicity complicates the identification of prescriptions from behavior, a difficulty that is partially resolvable by observing specific choices.
{"title":"Identity, Information and Situations","authors":"Daniele Pennesi","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad033","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper introduces a model of individual behavior based on identity, a person’s sense of self. The individual evaluates situations, i.e., sets of available actions given a belief about the actions’ uncertain payoffs. In some situations, a psychological cost arises because the individual’s identity prescribes an action that differs from the one maximizing material benefits. The model shows that a common process of weighing psychological costs and material benefits drives the choice of both information and future opportunities. As a result, information avoidance is akin to preferring fewer opportunities, such as crossing the street to avoid a fundraiser. The model provides a coherent rationalization for diverse behaviors, including willful ignorance, opting out of social dilemmas, and excess entry into competitive environments. The psychological cost varies non-monotonically with the quality of information or with having more opportunities. Non-monotonicity complicates the identification of prescriptions from behavior, a difficulty that is partially resolvable by observing specific choices.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48738164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Consistent evidence across important domains shows that people’s decisions can depend on the order or emphasis with which the attributes of the available options are presented to them. We introduce the first model of such framing effects, which we characterize in terms of observable behavior. We apply the model to study how the strategic use of attribute framing affects the outcomes of negotiations and competition in markets. We extend the model to stochastic-choice frameworks, which are often used in practice.
{"title":"Listing Specs: The Effect of Framing Attributes on Choice","authors":"S. Galperti, Francesco Cerigioni","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad032","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Consistent evidence across important domains shows that people’s decisions can depend on the order or emphasis with which the attributes of the available options are presented to them. We introduce the first model of such framing effects, which we characterize in terms of observable behavior. We apply the model to study how the strategic use of attribute framing affects the outcomes of negotiations and competition in markets. We extend the model to stochastic-choice frameworks, which are often used in practice.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42345922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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