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Mismatch unemployment during COVID-19 and the post-pandemic labor shortages COVID-19期间的不匹配失业和大流行后的劳动力短缺
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105142
Serdar Birinci , Yusuf Mercan , Kurt See
We examine the extent to which mismatch unemployment—employment losses relative to an efficient allocation where the planner can costlessly reallocate unemployed workers across sectors to maximize output—shaped labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery episode characterized by labor shortages. We find that, for the first time in our sample, mismatch unemployment turned negative at the onset of the pandemic. This result suggests that the efficient allocation of job seekers would involve reallocating workers toward longer-tenure and more-productive jobs, even at the expense of fewer hires. We show that sectoral differences in job separations were the main driver behind this result, while differences in vacancies caused positive mismatch unemployment during the recovery episode. We also establish an empirical link between mismatch unemployment and the surge in the labor cost during the recovery, documenting that sectors with larger mismatch unemployment experienced higher employment cost growth.
在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间和随后以劳动力短缺为特征的复苏时期,计划者可以无成本地将失业工人重新分配到各个部门,以最大限度地提高产出型劳动力市场的动态,我们研究了不匹配失业-就业损失相对于有效配置的程度。我们发现,在我们的样本中,错配失业率首次在疫情开始时变为负值。这一结果表明,求职者的有效分配包括将工人重新分配到更长期和更有生产力的工作上,即使是以减少雇佣为代价。我们发现,离职的行业差异是这一结果背后的主要驱动因素,而空缺的差异在复苏时期导致了正错配失业。我们还在经济复苏期间建立了错配失业与劳动力成本飙升之间的实证联系,记录了错配失业较大的部门经历了更高的就业成本增长。
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引用次数: 0
The demographic transition and stagnation in countries vulnerable to climate change 易受气候变化影响国家的人口转型和停滞
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105141
Nguyen Thang Dao , Chrysovalantis Vasilakis
Climate change, environmental degradation, and high population growth can trap Sub-Saharan Africa in prolonged economic stagnation. We develop a novel theoretical framework showing how climate-induced resource depletion increases women's time spent collecting essentials like water and firewood, reducing investment in girls' education. This perpetuates gender inequality in education and income, slowing fertility decline and reinforcing population growth. A larger population further degrades resources, creating a feedback loop of stagnation. Empirical analysis of 44 African countries (1960 - 2017) supports these findings, revealing adverse climate effects on local resources and education gaps. Addressing these interconnected challenges is critical to breaking the stagnation cycle and fostering sustainable development.
气候变化、环境退化和人口高速增长可能使撒哈拉以南非洲陷入长期的经济停滞。我们开发了一个新的理论框架,展示了气候导致的资源枯竭如何增加了妇女收集水和木柴等必需品的时间,减少了对女孩教育的投资。这使教育和收入方面的性别不平等永久化,减缓生育率下降并加剧人口增长。更大的人口会进一步降低资源,造成停滞的反馈循环。对44个非洲国家(1960年至2017年)的实证分析支持了这些发现,揭示了气候对当地资源和教育差距的不利影响。解决这些相互关联的挑战对于打破停滞循环和促进可持续发展至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Accounting for the multiple sources of inflation: An agent-based model investigation 考虑通货膨胀的多重来源:一个基于主体的模型研究
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105139
Leonardo Ciambezi , Mattia Guerini , Mauro Napoletano , Andrea Roventini
We develop a macroeconomic agent-based model to study the role of demand and supply factors in determining inflation dynamics. Local interactions of heterogeneous firms and households in the labor and goods markets characterize the model. Asymmetric information implies that firm selection is imperfect and depends both on firms' relative prices and on their size. We calibrate the model on EU data by using the method of simulated moments and show that it can generate realistic inflation dynamics and a non-linear Phillips curve in line with recent empirical evidence. We then find that the traditional demand-led explanation of inflation stemming from a tight labor market only holds when selection in the goods markets is mostly driven by relative prices in comparison to firm size. Finally, we study the response of inflation to shocks impacting consumption, labor productivity, or energy costs. The results indicate that only demand shocks lead to wage-led inflation surges. Productivity shocks are entirely passed through to prices without affecting the income distribution. Energy shocks, instead, induce sellers' inflation after changes in both firms' cost structure and profit margins. This is in line with the recent empirical evidence for the Euro Area.
我们开发了一个基于宏观经济主体的模型来研究需求和供给因素在决定通货膨胀动态中的作用。异质企业和家庭在劳动力和商品市场中的本地相互作用是该模型的特征。信息不对称意味着企业选择是不完美的,取决于企业的相对价格和规模。我们使用模拟矩的方法在欧盟数据上校准模型,并表明它可以生成现实的通货膨胀动态和符合最近经验证据的非线性菲利普斯曲线。然后,我们发现,传统的需求导向的通货膨胀解释源于劳动力市场紧张,只有当商品市场的选择主要是由相对价格与企业规模的比较驱动时,这种解释才成立。最后,我们研究通货膨胀对影响消费、劳动生产率或能源成本的冲击的反应。研究结果表明,只有需求冲击才会导致工资引发的通胀飙升。生产率的冲击完全传递给了价格,而不影响收入分配。相反,在两家公司的成本结构和利润率发生变化后,能源冲击引发了卖方的通胀。这与欧元区最近的经验证据一致。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal N-state endogenous Markov-switching model for currency liquidity timing 货币流动性时机的最优n状态内生马尔可夫切换模型
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105137
Luqi Wang, Giovanni Urga
In this paper, we examine whether globally-diversified funds' actively adjust their currency exposure in response to systematic currency liquidity movements, a behavior we term currency liquidity timing. A novel currency-liquidity-timing model embedded with an N-state endogenous Markov-switching mechanism is proposed to capture the dynamics in funds' timing behavior, as well as the external and internal drivers influencing such dynamics. Using a sample of 382 international fixed income mutual funds from July 2001 to December 2020, we find evidence of currency liquidity timing at the aggregate level for the sample funds. Interestingly, funds' currency-liquidity-timing behavior exhibits a state-switching pattern across different market periods: funds on average engage in perverse currency liquidity timing during tranquil market periods, but in positive currency liquidity timing with a stronger degree of aggressivity during more turbulent market periods. Our results suggest that the state transitions in funds' currency-liquidity-timing behavior are driven by deteriorating external currency market liquidity conditions and negative shocks to internal fund returns.
在本文中,我们考察了全球多元化基金是否会根据系统性的货币流动性变动积极调整其货币敞口,我们将这种行为称为货币流动性时机。提出了一种嵌入n状态内生马尔可夫切换机制的货币-流动性-择时模型,以捕捉基金择时行为的动态,以及影响这种动态的外部和内部驱动因素。利用2001年7月至2020年12月的382只国际固定收益共同基金的样本,我们发现了样本基金在总水平上存在货币流动性时机的证据。有趣的是,基金的货币流动性择时行为在不同的市场时期表现出一种状态切换模式:基金在平静的市场时期平均从事反向货币流动性择时,但在更动荡的市场时期,积极的货币流动性择时具有更强的侵略性。我们的研究结果表明,基金货币流动性择时行为的状态转变是由外部货币市场流动性状况恶化和对内部基金收益的负面冲击驱动的。
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引用次数: 0
Fear (no more) of floating: Asset purchases and exchange rate dynamics 担心(不再)浮动:资产购买和汇率动态
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105136
Yasin Mimir , Enes Sunel
We provide a theory on currency dynamics, capital flows and conditions for emerging-market economy central bank asset purchases to leave room for maneuver for conventional monetary policy. Local-currency asset purchases ease financial conditions and boost banks' foreign borrowing capacity. Therefore, they curb the financial amplification of government bond sell-off shocks by mitigating private sector capital outflows and the accompanying exchange rate depreciation. The resulting limited rise in inflation reduces the pro-cyclicality of conventional monetary policy. Our framework sheds light on stable exchange rate dynamics observed after the unprecedented asset purchase announcements in emerging-market economies during the COVID-19 crisis.
我们提供了一个关于货币动态、资本流动和新兴市场经济体央行资产购买条件的理论,为传统货币政策留下了回旋余地。购买本币资产可以缓解金融状况,提高银行的对外借款能力。因此,它们通过缓解私人部门资本外流和随之而来的汇率贬值,抑制了政府债券抛售冲击的金融放大。由此导致的有限通胀上升降低了传统货币政策的顺周期性。我们的框架揭示了新兴市场经济体在2019冠状病毒病危机期间宣布史无前例的资产购买后观察到的稳定汇率动态。
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引用次数: 0
What are the macroeconomic effects of state-dependent forward guidance? 依赖政府的前瞻指引对宏观经济的影响是什么?
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105138
Martin Weale , Tomasz Wieladek
We examine the macroeconomic effects of the Bank of England (BoE)’s state-dependent forward guidance (SDFG). The policy’s timing permits separate identification of SDFG from QE, which is difficult in the EA and US because these policies were announced jointly. A New Keynesian model shows that SDFG reduces uncertainty about the future policy rate. We use this prediction and the timing of the BoE’s SDFG, to identify SDFG shocks with a narrative sign restriction BVAR approach. Output and prices rise in response to SDFG, despite no econometric restrictions on these variables. The effects are small and consistent with the NK model. We find that changes in expectations play a greater role in transmitting SDFG to the economy than lower retail interest rates.
我们研究了英国央行(BoE)的国家依赖型前瞻指引(SDFG)的宏观经济影响。该政策的时机允许将SDFG与QE分开识别,这在EA和美国是困难的,因为这些政策是联合宣布的。新凯恩斯主义模型显示,可持续发展目标减少了未来政策利率的不确定性。我们使用这一预测和英国央行SDFG的时机,以叙事符号限制BVAR方法来识别SDFG冲击。产出和价格会响应SDFG而上升,尽管这些变量没有计量经济学限制。影响很小,与NK模型一致。我们发现,在将SDFG传导给经济方面,预期的变化比降低零售利率发挥了更大的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Decentralised finance and automated market making: Execution and speculation 去中心化金融和自动化做市:执行和投机
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105134
Álvaro Cartea , Fayçal Drissi , Marcello Monga
Automated market makers (AMMs) are a new prototype of decentralised exchanges which are revolutionising market interactions. The majority of AMMs are constant product markets (CPMs) where exchange rates are set by a trading function. This work studies optimal trading and statistical arbitrage in CPMs where balancing exchange rate risk and execution costs is key. Empirical evidence shows that execution costs are accurately estimated by the convexity of the trading function. These convexity costs are linear in the trade size and are nonlinear in the depth of liquidity and in the exchange rate. We develop models for when exchange rates form in a competing centralised exchange, in a CPM, or in both venues. Finally, we derive computationally efficient strategies that account for stochastic convexity costs and we showcase their out-of-sample performance.
自动做市商(AMMs)是去中心化交易所的新原型,正在彻底改变市场互动。大多数amm是固定产品市场(cpm),其中汇率由交易函数设定。本文研究了cpm中的最优交易和统计套利,其中平衡汇率风险和执行成本是关键。经验证据表明,交易函数的凸性可以准确地估计执行成本。这些凸性成本在交易规模上是线性的,在流动性深度和汇率上是非线性的。我们开发了汇率在竞争的集中式交易所、CPM或两者中何时形成的模型。最后,我们推导了计算效率高的策略,这些策略考虑了随机凸性成本,并展示了它们的样本外性能。
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引用次数: 0
Expectation formation in financial markets: Heterogeneity and sentiment 金融市场的预期形成:异质性与情绪
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105133
Bart Frijns , Thanh Huynh , Remco C.J. Zwinkels
We set up an endowment based asset pricing model in which agents have heterogeneous expectations about future price levels. Expectations are a function of fundamentals or trends, both interacted with sentiment. Agents are able to switch between expectation formation functions based on past performance combined with sentiment. Estimation results on the S&P500 index as well as its constituents reveal that there is heterogeneity between agents, with substantial switching between groups. We find that sentiment has both a direct and an indirect effect on expectations. Specifically, heterogeneity between groups is increasing in sentiment, and higher sentiment reduces the frequency of switching between functions. Our results imply that the true expectation formation process is a dynamic process based on multiple information sources.
我们建立了一个基于禀赋的资产定价模型,在该模型中,代理人对未来价格水平有异质预期。预期是基本面或趋势的函数,两者都与情绪相互作用。智能体能够在基于过去表现和情绪的期望形成函数之间切换。对标普500指数及其成分股的估计结果显示,agent之间存在异质性,组与组之间存在较大的切换。我们发现情绪对预期有直接和间接的影响。具体而言,群体之间的异质性在情绪上增加,较高的情绪降低了功能之间切换的频率。研究结果表明,真实期望的形成过程是一个基于多个信息源的动态过程。
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引用次数: 0
Oil price shocks and US business cycles 油价冲击与美国商业周期
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105132
Irfan A. Qureshi , Ghufran Ahmad
This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on the US economy, focusing on how changes in oil supply expectations impact key indicators. We introduce an instrument to identify these shocks by isolating exogenous fluctuations in daily crude oil futures linked to catastrophic events in major oil-producing countries. These events arise independently of short-term market dynamics, minimizing reverse causality concerns. The shock disrupts oil operations, reduces economic activity, and increases unemployment and inflation, highlighting the role of oil prices in driving business cycles. Comprehensive robustness checks and analysis of other major economies reinforce the validity of our findings.
本文研究了油价冲击对美国经济的宏观经济影响,重点关注石油供应预期的变化如何影响关键指标。我们引入了一种工具,通过隔离与主要产油国灾难性事件相关的每日原油期货的外生波动来识别这些冲击。这些事件的发生独立于短期市场动态,最大限度地减少了反向因果关系的担忧。这种冲击扰乱了石油生产,减少了经济活动,增加了失业率和通货膨胀,突出了油价在推动商业周期中的作用。对其他主要经济体的全面稳健性检查和分析加强了我们研究结果的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
On automation, labor reallocation and welfare 在自动化、劳动力再分配和福利方面
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105129
Stéphane Auray , Aurélien Eyquem
We develop an open-economy model of endogenous automation with heterogeneous firms and labor-market reallocation to quantify the contribution of various trends to the adoption of robots in the U.S. economy. The decline in the relative price of robots is the major trend leading to automation, but interacts with other trends that either hinder (rising entry costs, rising markups) or slightly foster (rising labor productivity, declining trade costs) the adoption of robots. Taken alone, the decline in the relative price of robots produces moderate welfare gains in the long run, but less than labor productivity growth. We then exploit our model to show that a decline in the relative price of robots (i) generates small positive cross-country automation spillovers and (ii) produces inefficient labor-market reallocation since a small subsidy on robots combined with a training subsidy can generate small welfare gains. Our main conclusion is that automation can not be simply modeled as an exogenous decline in the price of robots, and must be analyzed in a broader framework taking into account trends affecting firms, such as the decline in business dynamism and the rise in markups.
我们开发了一个具有异质公司和劳动力市场再分配的内生自动化的开放经济模型,以量化各种趋势对美国经济中机器人采用的贡献。机器人相对价格的下降是导致自动化的主要趋势,但与其他趋势相互作用,这些趋势要么阻碍(进入成本上升,利润率上升),要么略微促进(劳动生产率提高,贸易成本下降)机器人的采用。单独来看,机器人相对价格的下降在长期内产生了适度的福利收益,但低于劳动生产率的增长。然后,我们利用我们的模型表明,机器人相对价格的下降(i)会产生小的正的跨国自动化溢出效应,(ii)会产生低效的劳动力市场再分配,因为对机器人的小额补贴加上培训补贴可以产生小的福利收益。我们的主要结论是,自动化不能简单地建模为机器人价格的外生下降,必须在更广泛的框架内进行分析,考虑到影响企业的趋势,如商业活力的下降和加成的上升。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control
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