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Monetary policy transmission with endogenous central bank responses in TANK 央行内生反应下的货币政策传导
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105146
Lilia Maliar , Christopher Naubert
We study how the transmission of monetary policy innovations is affected by the endogenous response of the central bank to macroeconomic aggregates in a two-agent New Keynesian model. We focus on how the stance of monetary policy and the fraction of savers in the economy affect transmission. We show that the indirect effect of an innovation is negative when the indirect real rate effect exceeds the indirect income effect. The relative magnitude of the indirect real rate effect increases with the share of savers and the strength of the central bank's response and decreases with the horizon of the innovation.
在双代理新凯恩斯模型中,我们研究了货币政策创新的传导如何受到中央银行对宏观经济总量的内生反应的影响。我们关注货币政策的立场和经济中储蓄者的比例如何影响传导。研究表明,当间接实际利率效应超过间接收入效应时,创新的间接效应为负。间接实际利率效应的相对大小随着储蓄者比例和央行应对力度的增加而增加,随着创新的广度而减小。
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引用次数: 0
Mismatch unemployment during COVID-19 and the post-pandemic labor shortages COVID-19期间的不匹配失业和大流行后的劳动力短缺
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105142
Serdar Birinci , Yusuf Mercan , Kurt See
We examine the extent to which mismatch unemployment—employment losses relative to an efficient allocation where the planner can costlessly reallocate unemployed workers across sectors to maximize output—shaped labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery episode characterized by labor shortages. We find that, for the first time in our sample, mismatch unemployment turned negative at the onset of the pandemic. This result suggests that the efficient allocation of job seekers would involve reallocating workers toward longer-tenure and more-productive jobs, even at the expense of fewer hires. We show that sectoral differences in job separations were the main driver behind this result, while differences in vacancies caused positive mismatch unemployment during the recovery episode. We also establish an empirical link between mismatch unemployment and the surge in the labor cost during the recovery, documenting that sectors with larger mismatch unemployment experienced higher employment cost growth.
在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间和随后以劳动力短缺为特征的复苏时期,计划者可以无成本地将失业工人重新分配到各个部门,以最大限度地提高产出型劳动力市场的动态,我们研究了不匹配失业-就业损失相对于有效配置的程度。我们发现,在我们的样本中,错配失业率首次在疫情开始时变为负值。这一结果表明,求职者的有效分配包括将工人重新分配到更长期和更有生产力的工作上,即使是以减少雇佣为代价。我们发现,离职的行业差异是这一结果背后的主要驱动因素,而空缺的差异在复苏时期导致了正错配失业。我们还在经济复苏期间建立了错配失业与劳动力成本飙升之间的实证联系,记录了错配失业较大的部门经历了更高的就业成本增长。
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引用次数: 0
A Gaussian smooth transition vector autoregressive model: An application to the macroeconomic effects of severe weather shocks 高斯平滑过渡向量自回归模型:在恶劣天气冲击的宏观经济影响中的应用
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105162
Markku Lanne, Savi Virolainen
We introduce a new smooth transition vector autoregressive model with a Gaussian conditional distribution and transition weights that, for a pth order model, depend on the full distribution of the preceding p observations. Specifically, the transition weight of each regime increases in its relative weighted likelihood. This data-driven approach facilitates capturing complex switching dynamics, enhancing the identification of gradual regime shifts. In an empirical application to the macroeconomic effects of a severe weather shock, we find that in monthly U.S. data from 1961:1 to 2022:3, the shock has stronger impact in the regime prevailing in the early part of the sample and in certain crisis periods than in the regime dominating the latter part of the sample. While the overall evidence is somewhat mixed, this may lend some support to overall adaptation of the U.S. economy to severe weather over time.
我们引入了一种新的平滑过渡向量自回归模型,该模型具有高斯条件分布和过渡权,对于p阶模型,过渡权取决于前p个观测值的完整分布。具体来说,每个政权的过渡权在其相对加权可能性中增加。这种数据驱动的方法有助于捕获复杂的切换动态,增强对渐进政权转移的识别。在对严重天气冲击的宏观经济效应的实证应用中,我们发现,在1961年1月至2022年3月的美国月度数据中,冲击对样本早期和某些危机时期普遍存在的制度的影响强于对样本后期主导制度的影响。尽管整体证据好坏参半,但这可能会为美国经济对恶劣天气的整体适应提供一些支持。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic incentive contracts with controllable risk 风险可控的动态激励契约
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105160
Yuqian Zhang , Zhaojun Yang
We address a dynamic contracting model in which a principal hires an agent to manage a project. The key new ingredient is that either the principal or the agent can dynamically control the project risk. Increasing the risk has three effects: (i) a positive drift effect due to the risk premium, (ii) a negative drift effect that captures inefficiencies arising from risk-shifting, and (iii) a mechanical mean-preserving spread effect. We show that if the principal instead of agent controls the risk, we get a higher contract efficiency. The higher the agent's promised value, the more pronounced the advantage. The non-contractibility of risk induces the agent's risk-taking behavior. The contract efficiency in the exogenous no-savings environment is higher than that in the endogenous one due to additional costs of no-savings incentives. These findings contribute to the allocation of control rights, bringing forth a corporate governance perspective.
我们解决了一个动态承包模型,其中委托人雇佣代理人来管理项目。关键的新因素是委托方或代理方都可以动态控制项目风险。增加风险有三种影响:(i)由于风险溢价而产生的正漂移效应,(ii)捕获风险转移引起的低效率的负漂移效应,以及(iii)机械均值保持价差效应。结果表明,由委托方而不是代理方控制风险,可以获得更高的合同效率。代理人承诺的价值越高,优势就越明显。风险的不可收缩性诱发了代理人的冒险行为。由于无储蓄激励的额外成本,外生无储蓄环境下的契约效率高于内生无储蓄环境下的契约效率。这些发现有助于控制权的配置,提出了公司治理的视角。
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引用次数: 0
Decentralised finance and automated market making: Execution and speculation 去中心化金融和自动化做市:执行和投机
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105134
Álvaro Cartea , Fayçal Drissi , Marcello Monga
Automated market makers (AMMs) are a new prototype of decentralised exchanges which are revolutionising market interactions. The majority of AMMs are constant product markets (CPMs) where exchange rates are set by a trading function. This work studies optimal trading and statistical arbitrage in CPMs where balancing exchange rate risk and execution costs is key. Empirical evidence shows that execution costs are accurately estimated by the convexity of the trading function. These convexity costs are linear in the trade size and are nonlinear in the depth of liquidity and in the exchange rate. We develop models for when exchange rates form in a competing centralised exchange, in a CPM, or in both venues. Finally, we derive computationally efficient strategies that account for stochastic convexity costs and we showcase their out-of-sample performance.
自动做市商(AMMs)是去中心化交易所的新原型,正在彻底改变市场互动。大多数amm是固定产品市场(cpm),其中汇率由交易函数设定。本文研究了cpm中的最优交易和统计套利,其中平衡汇率风险和执行成本是关键。经验证据表明,交易函数的凸性可以准确地估计执行成本。这些凸性成本在交易规模上是线性的,在流动性深度和汇率上是非线性的。我们开发了汇率在竞争的集中式交易所、CPM或两者中何时形成的模型。最后,我们推导了计算效率高的策略,这些策略考虑了随机凸性成本,并展示了它们的样本外性能。
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引用次数: 0
The sleeper effect of comparative advertising in oligopolistic markets 寡头垄断市场比较广告的睡眠者效应
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105122
Rabah Amir , Dominika Machowska , Andrzej Nowakowski
This research deals with comparative advertising strategies of firms in an oligopolistic market in the presence of the sleeper effect, through the lens of a differential game with time delay. We examine the open-loop Nash equilibrium and, for its validation, propose a new verification theorem that determines if a given strategy profile constitutes a Nash equilibrium. Our results reveal how the sleeper effect influences the equilibrium of comparative advertising strategies across two decision-making periods. Moreover, we highlight how market factors and firm attributes can significantly affect these strategies and derive conditions under which a firm will abstain from such strategies. Overall, our study provides novel insights into how market dynamics, firm attributes, and the sleeper effect interact in shaping comparative advertising strategies.
本文通过时滞差分博弈的视角,研究了存在睡眠者效应的寡头垄断市场中企业广告策略的比较。我们研究了开环纳什均衡,并提出了一个新的验证定理,以确定给定的策略配置是否构成纳什均衡。我们的研究结果揭示了睡眠者效应如何影响两个决策时期比较广告策略的均衡。此外,我们强调了市场因素和企业属性如何显著影响这些策略,并推导出企业放弃这些策略的条件。总的来说,我们的研究为市场动态、企业属性和睡眠者效应如何在形成比较广告策略中相互作用提供了新颖的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Expectation formation in financial markets: Heterogeneity and sentiment 金融市场的预期形成:异质性与情绪
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105133
Bart Frijns , Thanh Huynh , Remco C.J. Zwinkels
We set up an endowment based asset pricing model in which agents have heterogeneous expectations about future price levels. Expectations are a function of fundamentals or trends, both interacted with sentiment. Agents are able to switch between expectation formation functions based on past performance combined with sentiment. Estimation results on the S&P500 index as well as its constituents reveal that there is heterogeneity between agents, with substantial switching between groups. We find that sentiment has both a direct and an indirect effect on expectations. Specifically, heterogeneity between groups is increasing in sentiment, and higher sentiment reduces the frequency of switching between functions. Our results imply that the true expectation formation process is a dynamic process based on multiple information sources.
我们建立了一个基于禀赋的资产定价模型,在该模型中,代理人对未来价格水平有异质预期。预期是基本面或趋势的函数,两者都与情绪相互作用。智能体能够在基于过去表现和情绪的期望形成函数之间切换。对标普500指数及其成分股的估计结果显示,agent之间存在异质性,组与组之间存在较大的切换。我们发现情绪对预期有直接和间接的影响。具体而言,群体之间的异质性在情绪上增加,较高的情绪降低了功能之间切换的频率。研究结果表明,真实期望的形成过程是一个基于多个信息源的动态过程。
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引用次数: 0
A robust asymptotic control model to analyze climate policy with CDR options 具有CDR选项的气候政策鲁棒渐近控制模型分析
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105114
Frédéric Babonneau , Alain Haurie , Marc Vielle
A three-region optimal economic growth model is proposed to represent the global energy transition to net-zero emissions when carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are available. The main features of the model are (i) the representation of the economy and energy use with nested CES production functions; (ii) the representation of climate policy through the use of a safety cumulative emissions budget concept; and (iii) the introduction of an international emissions trading scheme for the implementation of climate policy. Using an infinite horizon optimal control paradigm, several contrasting scenarios are analyzed both in an asymptotic steady state or “turnpike” point, and in an optimal transition to sustainability. This very compact model produces dynamic path simulations that are consistent with the main recommendations from IPCC for long term climate policies. The potential use of this simple model in future developments in climate and economic modeling is discussed.
本文提出了一个三区域最优经济增长模型,用于描述二氧化碳去除技术可用时全球能源向净零排放的过渡。该模型的主要特点是(i)用嵌套的消费电子产品生产函数来表示经济和能源使用;(ii)通过使用安全累积排放预算概念来表示气候政策;(三)为实施气候政策而引入国际排放交易计划。使用无限视界最优控制范式,分析了在渐近稳定状态或“收费公路”点和在可持续性的最优过渡中的几种对比情景。这个非常紧凑的模型产生的动态路径模拟与IPCC关于长期气候政策的主要建议相一致。讨论了这个简单模型在未来气候和经济模式发展中的潜在用途。
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引用次数: 0
Real investment decision under CRRA utility: The flow payoff case CRRA效用下的实际投资决策:流收益案例
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105130
Xiaoqing Yin , Haijun Wang
This paper explores how payoff volatility (idiosyncratic volatility), time preference and investment-wealth ratio affect an entrepreneur's real investment decision in a constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) framework, when the investment project generates a flow payoff. We find that time preference has an important effect on the optimal investment threshold, which comes from wealth effects on the implied project value and the implied option value. Particularly, we discover that the optimal investment threshold is convex in time discount rate. At most cases, a larger payoff volatility increases the optimal investment threshold and makes the entrepreneur invest later. However, if the entrepreneur has lower risk aversion and more sufficient patience, a larger payoff volatility may decrease the optimal investment threshold and makes the entrepreneur invest earlier. Moreover, a higher investment-wealth ratio makes the entrepreneur invest later.
本文探讨了当投资项目产生流动收益时,在恒定相对风险厌恶(CRRA)框架下,收益波动率(特质波动率)、时间偏好和投资财富比如何影响企业家的实际投资决策。研究发现,时间偏好对最优投资门槛的影响主要来自于隐含项目价值和隐含期权价值的财富效应。特别地,我们发现最优投资门槛在时间折现率下是凸的。在大多数情况下,收益波动越大,最优投资门槛越高,企业家投资越晚。但是,如果企业家的风险厌恶程度较低,耐性较强,则较大的收益波动率可能会降低最优投资门槛,使企业家更早进行投资。此外,投资财富比越高,企业家投资越晚。
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引用次数: 0
On automation, labor reallocation and welfare 在自动化、劳动力再分配和福利方面
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105129
Stéphane Auray , Aurélien Eyquem
We develop an open-economy model of endogenous automation with heterogeneous firms and labor-market reallocation to quantify the contribution of various trends to the adoption of robots in the U.S. economy. The decline in the relative price of robots is the major trend leading to automation, but interacts with other trends that either hinder (rising entry costs, rising markups) or slightly foster (rising labor productivity, declining trade costs) the adoption of robots. Taken alone, the decline in the relative price of robots produces moderate welfare gains in the long run, but less than labor productivity growth. We then exploit our model to show that a decline in the relative price of robots (i) generates small positive cross-country automation spillovers and (ii) produces inefficient labor-market reallocation since a small subsidy on robots combined with a training subsidy can generate small welfare gains. Our main conclusion is that automation can not be simply modeled as an exogenous decline in the price of robots, and must be analyzed in a broader framework taking into account trends affecting firms, such as the decline in business dynamism and the rise in markups.
我们开发了一个具有异质公司和劳动力市场再分配的内生自动化的开放经济模型,以量化各种趋势对美国经济中机器人采用的贡献。机器人相对价格的下降是导致自动化的主要趋势,但与其他趋势相互作用,这些趋势要么阻碍(进入成本上升,利润率上升),要么略微促进(劳动生产率提高,贸易成本下降)机器人的采用。单独来看,机器人相对价格的下降在长期内产生了适度的福利收益,但低于劳动生产率的增长。然后,我们利用我们的模型表明,机器人相对价格的下降(i)会产生小的正的跨国自动化溢出效应,(ii)会产生低效的劳动力市场再分配,因为对机器人的小额补贴加上培训补贴可以产生小的福利收益。我们的主要结论是,自动化不能简单地建模为机器人价格的外生下降,必须在更广泛的框架内进行分析,考虑到影响企业的趋势,如商业活力的下降和加成的上升。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control
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