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Medicaid work requirements, labor market effects and welfare 医疗补助工作要求,劳动力市场影响和福利
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105147
Juergen Jung , Vinish Shrestha
We develop an overlapping generations model with labor supply, health risk, and health insurance choice to evaluate the effects of imposing work requirements for Medicaid eligibility. The model is calibrated to U.S. data and used to simulate counterfactual policies that condition Medicaid access on minimum weekly work hours, with exemptions for the sick and disabled. Our partial and general equilibrium analyses show that such requirements increase labor force participation, reduce Medicaid enrollment, raise the uninsured rate, and boost output. While long-run growth can offset short-run welfare losses, most scenarios lead to net welfare declines for low-income households. High-income households, by contrast, experience welfare gains. When work requirements are extended to include the sick and disabled, the policy yields stronger growth effects and larger welfare gains. Incorporating key features of the Affordable Care Act—such as Medicaid expansion and subsidized private insurance exchanges—creates a less risky environment in which low-income individuals can substitute Medicaid with subsidized private coverage, thereby reducing welfare losses. However, the fiscal burden of insurance subsidies offsets some of the government's savings from Medicaid contraction, resulting in more modest overall growth effects.
我们开发了一个包含劳动力供给、健康风险和健康保险选择的重叠代模型,以评估对医疗补助资格施加工作要求的影响。该模型是根据美国的数据进行校准的,并用于模拟反事实的政策,这些政策将医疗补助计划以每周最低工作时间为条件,病人和残疾人除外。我们的部分均衡和一般均衡分析表明,这些要求增加了劳动力参与率,减少了医疗补助登记,提高了未参保率,并促进了产出。虽然长期增长可以抵消短期福利损失,但大多数情况下会导致低收入家庭的净福利下降。相比之下,高收入家庭的福利则有所增加。当工作要求扩大到包括病人和残疾人时,该政策产生更强的增长效应和更大的福利收益。纳入《平价医疗法案》的关键特征——比如扩大医疗补助和补贴私人保险交易所——创造了一个风险较低的环境,在这个环境中,低收入个人可以用补贴的私人保险代替医疗补助,从而减少福利损失。然而,保险补贴的财政负担抵消了政府从医疗补助计划收缩中节省的部分资金,导致总体增长效果更为温和。
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引用次数: 0
Monetary policy transmission with endogenous central bank responses in TANK 央行内生反应下的货币政策传导
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105146
Lilia Maliar , Christopher Naubert
We study how the transmission of monetary policy innovations is affected by the endogenous response of the central bank to macroeconomic aggregates in a two-agent New Keynesian model. We focus on how the stance of monetary policy and the fraction of savers in the economy affect transmission. We show that the indirect effect of an innovation is negative when the indirect real rate effect exceeds the indirect income effect. The relative magnitude of the indirect real rate effect increases with the share of savers and the strength of the central bank's response and decreases with the horizon of the innovation.
在双代理新凯恩斯模型中,我们研究了货币政策创新的传导如何受到中央银行对宏观经济总量的内生反应的影响。我们关注货币政策的立场和经济中储蓄者的比例如何影响传导。研究表明,当间接实际利率效应超过间接收入效应时,创新的间接效应为负。间接实际利率效应的相对大小随着储蓄者比例和央行应对力度的增加而增加,随着创新的广度而减小。
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引用次数: 0
A tractable model of epidemic control and equilibrium dynamics 一个易于处理的流行病控制和平衡动力学模型
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105145
Martín Gonzalez-Eiras , Dirk Niepelt
We develop a single-state model of epidemic control and equilibrium dynamics, and we show that its simplicity comes at very low cost during the early phase of an epidemic. Novel analytical results concern the continuity of the policy function; the reversal from lockdown to stimulus policies; and the relaxation of optimal lockdowns when testing is feasible. The model's enhanced computational efficiency over SIR-based frameworks allows for the quantitative assessment of various new scenarios and specifications. Calibrated to reflect the COVID-19 pandemic, the model predicts an optimal initial activity reduction of 38 percent, with subsequent stimulus measures accounting for one-third of the welfare gains from optimal government intervention. The threat of recurrent infection waves makes the optimal lockdown more stringent, while a linear or near-linear activity-infection nexus, or strong consumption smoothing needs, reduce its stringency.
我们开发了流行病控制和平衡动力学的单状态模型,并且我们表明,在流行病的早期阶段,它的简单性以非常低的成本获得。新的分析结果涉及政策功能的连续性;从封锁转向刺激政策;在可行的情况下放松最佳封锁。与基于sir的框架相比,该模型提高了计算效率,可以对各种新场景和规范进行定量评估。该模型经过校准以反映COVID-19大流行,预测最优的初始活动减少38%,随后的刺激措施占最优政府干预带来的福利收益的三分之一。复发性感染波的威胁使最佳封锁更加严格,而线性或近似线性的活动-感染联系,或强烈的消耗平滑需求,降低了其严格性。
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引用次数: 0
Yield curve dynamics and fiscal policy shocks 收益率曲线动态与财政政策冲击
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105144
Adam Kučera , Evžen Kočenda , Aleš Maršál
This paper examines how anticipated, unanticipated, and uncertainty shocks in U.S. government spending affect the term structure of interest rates, showing that fiscal policy design significantly influences the yield curve and financing costs. Combining a recursively-identified fiscal SVAR with an affine term-structure model that incorporates five-year Congressional Budget Office projections and the Economic Policy Uncertainty index, we recover three orthogonal fiscal shocks and trace their effects on bond markets and economic activity. We find that heightened fiscal policy uncertainty induces a flight to quality, causing immediate declines in Treasury yields. Unanticipated spending shocks have a limited impact on yields, underscoring the forward-looking nature of financial markets. Anticipated spending shocks also lower yields as investors adjust expectations about future macroeconomic conditions. Contrary to traditional views, we observe a contractionary effect on real GDP growth, as lower yields reinforce precautionary behavior among households and firms. Our macro-finance framework captures the bidirectional relationship between macroeconomic expectations and financial markets, highlighting the critical role of the yield curve in transmitting fiscal policy shocks to the real economy.
本文考察了美国政府支出的预期冲击、非预期冲击和不确定性冲击如何影响利率期限结构,结果表明财政政策设计显著影响收益率曲线和融资成本。将递归识别的财政SVAR与包含五年国会预算办公室预测和经济政策不确定性指数的仿射期限结构模型相结合,我们恢复了三个正交的财政冲击,并追踪了它们对债券市场和经济活动的影响。我们发现,财政政策的不确定性加剧导致投资者向优质资产外逃,从而导致美国国债收益率立即下降。意外支出冲击对收益率的影响有限,突显出金融市场的前瞻性。随着投资者调整对未来宏观经济状况的预期,预期的支出冲击也压低了收益率。与传统观点相反,我们观察到实际GDP增长的收缩效应,因为较低的收益率加强了家庭和企业的预防行为。我们的宏观金融框架抓住了宏观经济预期与金融市场之间的双向关系,强调了收益率曲线在将财政政策冲击传递给实体经济方面的关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
DSGE Nash: Solving Nash games in macro models DSGE纳什:在宏观模型中解决纳什博弈
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105143
Massimo Ferrari Minesso , Maria Sole Pagliari
This paper presents DSGE Nash, a toolkit to solve for pure strategy Nash equilibria of global games in macro models. Nash equilibria are computed with a decentralized approach: each player controls only its own policy function while other agents in the economy act independently. Although primarily designed to solve for Nash equilibria in DSGE models, the toolkit encompasses a broad range of settings, including the possibility of matching empirical data. Importantly, it allows to solve for the equilibrium in the presence of non-linearities or conditionally on shocks. When only one player is selected, the problem is re-framed as a standard optimal policy problem. We apply the algorithm to a standard two-country open-economy model, where central banks compete for rate setting. In the Nash equilibrium, central banks symmetrically trade-off inflation for output stabilization, in the presence of a zero lower bound constraint, the equilibrium becomes asymmetric: the central bank in the shock-originating economy implements a tighter policy, to reduce the zero lower bound duration, while the central bank in the other country opts for a more lenient rate setting strategy.
本文提出了一种求解宏观模型全局博弈纯策略纳什均衡的工具DSGE Nash。纳什均衡是用分散的方法计算的:每个参与者只控制自己的政策功能,而经济中的其他代理人独立行动。虽然主要是为了解决DSGE模型中的纳什均衡而设计的,但该工具包包含了广泛的设置,包括匹配经验数据的可能性。重要的是,它允许在非线性或有条件的冲击下求解平衡。当只选择一个参与者时,问题被重新定义为标准的最优策略问题。我们将该算法应用于标准的两国开放经济模型,在该模型中,中央银行竞争利率设定。在纳什均衡中,中央银行为了稳定产出而对称地权衡通货膨胀,在存在零下限约束的情况下,均衡变得不对称:冲击产生经济体的中央银行实施更紧缩的政策,以缩短零下限持续时间,而另一个国家的中央银行选择更宽松的利率制定策略。
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引用次数: 0
Mismatch unemployment during COVID-19 and the post-pandemic labor shortages COVID-19期间的不匹配失业和大流行后的劳动力短缺
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105142
Serdar Birinci , Yusuf Mercan , Kurt See
We examine the extent to which mismatch unemployment—employment losses relative to an efficient allocation where the planner can costlessly reallocate unemployed workers across sectors to maximize output—shaped labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery episode characterized by labor shortages. We find that, for the first time in our sample, mismatch unemployment turned negative at the onset of the pandemic. This result suggests that the efficient allocation of job seekers would involve reallocating workers toward longer-tenure and more-productive jobs, even at the expense of fewer hires. We show that sectoral differences in job separations were the main driver behind this result, while differences in vacancies caused positive mismatch unemployment during the recovery episode. We also establish an empirical link between mismatch unemployment and the surge in the labor cost during the recovery, documenting that sectors with larger mismatch unemployment experienced higher employment cost growth.
在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间和随后以劳动力短缺为特征的复苏时期,计划者可以无成本地将失业工人重新分配到各个部门,以最大限度地提高产出型劳动力市场的动态,我们研究了不匹配失业-就业损失相对于有效配置的程度。我们发现,在我们的样本中,错配失业率首次在疫情开始时变为负值。这一结果表明,求职者的有效分配包括将工人重新分配到更长期和更有生产力的工作上,即使是以减少雇佣为代价。我们发现,离职的行业差异是这一结果背后的主要驱动因素,而空缺的差异在复苏时期导致了正错配失业。我们还在经济复苏期间建立了错配失业与劳动力成本飙升之间的实证联系,记录了错配失业较大的部门经历了更高的就业成本增长。
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引用次数: 0
The demographic transition and stagnation in countries vulnerable to climate change 易受气候变化影响国家的人口转型和停滞
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105141
Nguyen Thang Dao , Chrysovalantis Vasilakis
Climate change, environmental degradation, and high population growth can trap Sub-Saharan Africa in prolonged economic stagnation. We develop a novel theoretical framework showing how climate-induced resource depletion increases women's time spent collecting essentials like water and firewood, reducing investment in girls' education. This perpetuates gender inequality in education and income, slowing fertility decline and reinforcing population growth. A larger population further degrades resources, creating a feedback loop of stagnation. Empirical analysis of 44 African countries (1960 - 2017) supports these findings, revealing adverse climate effects on local resources and education gaps. Addressing these interconnected challenges is critical to breaking the stagnation cycle and fostering sustainable development.
气候变化、环境退化和人口高速增长可能使撒哈拉以南非洲陷入长期的经济停滞。我们开发了一个新的理论框架,展示了气候导致的资源枯竭如何增加了妇女收集水和木柴等必需品的时间,减少了对女孩教育的投资。这使教育和收入方面的性别不平等永久化,减缓生育率下降并加剧人口增长。更大的人口会进一步降低资源,造成停滞的反馈循环。对44个非洲国家(1960年至2017年)的实证分析支持了这些发现,揭示了气候对当地资源和教育差距的不利影响。解决这些相互关联的挑战对于打破停滞循环和促进可持续发展至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Accounting for the multiple sources of inflation: An agent-based model investigation 考虑通货膨胀的多重来源:一个基于主体的模型研究
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105139
Leonardo Ciambezi , Mattia Guerini , Mauro Napoletano , Andrea Roventini
We develop a macroeconomic agent-based model to study the role of demand and supply factors in determining inflation dynamics. Local interactions of heterogeneous firms and households in the labor and goods markets characterize the model. Asymmetric information implies that firm selection is imperfect and depends both on firms' relative prices and on their size. We calibrate the model on EU data by using the method of simulated moments and show that it can generate realistic inflation dynamics and a non-linear Phillips curve in line with recent empirical evidence. We then find that the traditional demand-led explanation of inflation stemming from a tight labor market only holds when selection in the goods markets is mostly driven by relative prices in comparison to firm size. Finally, we study the response of inflation to shocks impacting consumption, labor productivity, or energy costs. The results indicate that only demand shocks lead to wage-led inflation surges. Productivity shocks are entirely passed through to prices without affecting the income distribution. Energy shocks, instead, induce sellers' inflation after changes in both firms' cost structure and profit margins. This is in line with the recent empirical evidence for the Euro Area.
我们开发了一个基于宏观经济主体的模型来研究需求和供给因素在决定通货膨胀动态中的作用。异质企业和家庭在劳动力和商品市场中的本地相互作用是该模型的特征。信息不对称意味着企业选择是不完美的,取决于企业的相对价格和规模。我们使用模拟矩的方法在欧盟数据上校准模型,并表明它可以生成现实的通货膨胀动态和符合最近经验证据的非线性菲利普斯曲线。然后,我们发现,传统的需求导向的通货膨胀解释源于劳动力市场紧张,只有当商品市场的选择主要是由相对价格与企业规模的比较驱动时,这种解释才成立。最后,我们研究通货膨胀对影响消费、劳动生产率或能源成本的冲击的反应。研究结果表明,只有需求冲击才会导致工资引发的通胀飙升。生产率的冲击完全传递给了价格,而不影响收入分配。相反,在两家公司的成本结构和利润率发生变化后,能源冲击引发了卖方的通胀。这与欧元区最近的经验证据一致。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal N-state endogenous Markov-switching model for currency liquidity timing 货币流动性时机的最优n状态内生马尔可夫切换模型
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105137
Luqi Wang, Giovanni Urga
In this paper, we examine whether globally-diversified funds' actively adjust their currency exposure in response to systematic currency liquidity movements, a behavior we term currency liquidity timing. A novel currency-liquidity-timing model embedded with an N-state endogenous Markov-switching mechanism is proposed to capture the dynamics in funds' timing behavior, as well as the external and internal drivers influencing such dynamics. Using a sample of 382 international fixed income mutual funds from July 2001 to December 2020, we find evidence of currency liquidity timing at the aggregate level for the sample funds. Interestingly, funds' currency-liquidity-timing behavior exhibits a state-switching pattern across different market periods: funds on average engage in perverse currency liquidity timing during tranquil market periods, but in positive currency liquidity timing with a stronger degree of aggressivity during more turbulent market periods. Our results suggest that the state transitions in funds' currency-liquidity-timing behavior are driven by deteriorating external currency market liquidity conditions and negative shocks to internal fund returns.
在本文中,我们考察了全球多元化基金是否会根据系统性的货币流动性变动积极调整其货币敞口,我们将这种行为称为货币流动性时机。提出了一种嵌入n状态内生马尔可夫切换机制的货币-流动性-择时模型,以捕捉基金择时行为的动态,以及影响这种动态的外部和内部驱动因素。利用2001年7月至2020年12月的382只国际固定收益共同基金的样本,我们发现了样本基金在总水平上存在货币流动性时机的证据。有趣的是,基金的货币流动性择时行为在不同的市场时期表现出一种状态切换模式:基金在平静的市场时期平均从事反向货币流动性择时,但在更动荡的市场时期,积极的货币流动性择时具有更强的侵略性。我们的研究结果表明,基金货币流动性择时行为的状态转变是由外部货币市场流动性状况恶化和对内部基金收益的负面冲击驱动的。
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引用次数: 0
Fear (no more) of floating: Asset purchases and exchange rate dynamics 担心(不再)浮动:资产购买和汇率动态
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105136
Yasin Mimir , Enes Sunel
We provide a theory on currency dynamics, capital flows and conditions for emerging-market economy central bank asset purchases to leave room for maneuver for conventional monetary policy. Local-currency asset purchases ease financial conditions and boost banks' foreign borrowing capacity. Therefore, they curb the financial amplification of government bond sell-off shocks by mitigating private sector capital outflows and the accompanying exchange rate depreciation. The resulting limited rise in inflation reduces the pro-cyclicality of conventional monetary policy. Our framework sheds light on stable exchange rate dynamics observed after the unprecedented asset purchase announcements in emerging-market economies during the COVID-19 crisis.
我们提供了一个关于货币动态、资本流动和新兴市场经济体央行资产购买条件的理论,为传统货币政策留下了回旋余地。购买本币资产可以缓解金融状况,提高银行的对外借款能力。因此,它们通过缓解私人部门资本外流和随之而来的汇率贬值,抑制了政府债券抛售冲击的金融放大。由此导致的有限通胀上升降低了传统货币政策的顺周期性。我们的框架揭示了新兴市场经济体在2019冠状病毒病危机期间宣布史无前例的资产购买后观察到的稳定汇率动态。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control
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