Journal of Economic Psychology最新文献

When forming global impressions in retrospect, the first, the last, and the most outstanding experience often have a lasting impact on the final evaluation of an event, as most prominently captured in the peak-end rule. Such serial position effects in impression formation provide indirect evidence that individuals reconstruct their evaluations by retrieving previous experiences from memory, instead of updating their impression online. Yet, latest work sheds doubt on the ability to predict global evaluations from memory retrieval on the individual level. In three experiments, we aim to quantify how much variability in retrospective evaluations can be attributed to memory retrieval by relating serial position effects in retrospective averaging judgments to serial recall curves from memory. The experiments revealed serial position effects in memory recall and corresponding, but less consistent effects in averaging judgments, demonstrating that individuals better recalled and more heavily weighted the first and last item. For long sequences, memory recall permitted to predict individuals’ averaging error to a moderate to strong degree, even if individuals were unaware of number recall as a potential averaging strategy (Experiment 2). Yet, shorter sequences fail to evidence the same relationship, possibly because individuals attempt to apply more optimal averaging strategies (Experiment 3). We discuss retrieval patterns as markers for distinct evaluation strategies.

We study mood effect in the field to measure its economic impact and address shortcomings in the existing literature, which typically uses one single mood proxy and ignores selection effects. Using over 50 million car inspections in Sweden and England and multiple mood proxies, we study whether car inspectors are more lenient on good mood days and if car owners self-select into those days. We find evidence of a “Friday effect” in England and a small selection bias, but no support for consistent mood effect. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the expectations of rational actors who may exploit mood effect and the need to study mood in the field using different settings and multiple proxies to avoid hasty conclusions.

We conduct an experiment to investigate how the timing of communication affects bargaining outcomes and dynamics in a majoritarian, sequential bargaining game. Our data show that allowing for free-form written communication at the proposal-making stage leads to higher proposer power and minimum winning coalitions compared to when communication is possible at the voting stage only. Absent communication, outcomes fall in between both communication timings. Voting patterns reveal that the timing of communication affects how subjects evaluate proposals, as they are more likely to vote in favor under proposal-stage communication than under voting-stage communication all else equal. In general, communication affects bargaining dynamics in that voters retaliate more strongly against failed proposers, compared to the no communication baseline. We provide a detailed description of communication content, the medium utilized to communicate, and how the volume and timing of messages affects outcomes. Our results underscore the importance of an in-depth analysis of processes and dynamics to understand bargaining behavior, because even when communication may lead to outcomes that resemble equilibrium, the strategies employed by subjects need not.

We study the correlation of choice under risk in Holt–Laury lotteries for gains and losses with gender, the use of hormonal contraceptives, menstrual cycle information, salivary testosterone, estradiol, progesterone, and cortisol as well as the digit ratio (2D:4D; length of the index finger to the ring finger of the right hand) in more than 200 subjects (45% females). In males, salivary testosterone is negatively correlated with risk aversion for gains only. In females, salivary cortisol is positively correlated with risk aversion for gains only. No other significant correlations between risk preferences and salivary hormones are observed. No significant correlations between risk preferences and the menstrual cycle are observed in naturally cycling females. No significant correlations between risk preferences and the digit ratio are observed in either gender and/or race.

Monetary incentives remain an integral component of economics experiments. However, the experimental economics literature is inconclusive when it comes to the effectiveness of random payment mechanisms, specifically in non-strategic individual decision experiments. To contribute to the literature on incentives in experiments, this study performed a meta-analysis of 94 dictator game studies and examined the effect of two frequently used random payment mechanisms on behavior. The mechanisms analyzed were the random problem selection procedure (RPSP) and between-subject random incentivized system (BRIS). The meta-analysis showed that RPSP and BRIS did not significantly alter behavior when compared to a single incentivized decision and incentivizing all subjects, respectively. The results support the effectiveness of RPSP and BRIS in nonstrategic individual decision experiments.

This paper studies a reputational bargaining model, and investigates the effects of “exit threat” on negotiators’ equilibrium behaviors. Although it is a purely cheap talk message, exit threat is effective and has two main effects: (1) it renders the final outcome efficient and unique, and (2) shifts the bargaining power towards the negotiator who can make this threat. Setting a deadline for negotiations pressures the opponent and incentivizes her to compromise. However, a deadline that is too early makes the opponent less willing to compromise. Thus, effective deadline is uniquely determined. Last minute agreements occur with a positive probability if negotiators cannot reach an immediate agreement. Frequency of agreement has peaks at the beginning and at the end of negotiations (deadline effect), and is flat otherwise.

To better understand the motivations behind the multilateral bargaining behaviors observed in the laboratory, I consider a modified many-player divide-the-dollar game in which players cannot propose again if they were randomly selected in one of the previous rounds but failed to provide an accepted proposal. This finite-horizon bargaining model without replacement captures the legislative process in which each legislator has only one opportunity to propose while the order of proposers is unknown. The unique symmetric subgame perfect equilibrium has several features that allow the transparent interpretation of experimental data. I find that proposers do not fully extract their rent, but the concern about inequity aversion is not a driving factor even in a myopic sense. Out-of-equilibrium observations suggest that retaliation and the fear thereof may be driving factors.

Individual and social preferences have shown to be important factors in individual decision making and general economic performance. Yet, they are usually assumed as given and stable, underestimating their impact in the rhythm of economic recovery after a natural disaster or pandemic. This paper examines the effects of COVID-19 initial confinement on households’ individual and social preferences across small communities in the rural area of Guatemala. We use a comprehensive panel household survey of agricultural smallholders collected during two survey rounds in 2019, prior to the pandemic, and 2020 and find that preferences generally shifted following the onset of the pandemic. We observe a significant increase in risk tolerance, deteriorated perceptions towards trust and generosity, and a higher frequency of emotional issues, while intra-household relationships remain stable. We find that experiencing a household adverse situation, a higher degree of exposure to the virus, and more stringent local confinement measures shaped several of the variations in preferences. The focus of the study on a region with high poverty and malnutrition rates offers important insights of the consequences of confinement on perceptions and attitudes in complex and vulnerable rural contexts during the wake of a public health emergency.