Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-17DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2026.103845
Kenneth R. Ahern , Marco Giacoletti
This paper studies the effects of rent control on the housing wealth of renters, landlords, and homeowners. Following the passage of rent control in St. Paul, Minnesota in 2021, average property values fell by 4.0% to 5.5%. Leveraging parcel-level data, we show that in the aggregate, renters gained and landlords lost, though upper-income renters gained more than lower-income renters, while small landlords lost the same as large landlords. Owner-occupants’ wealth also fell significantly from direct capitalization effects and negative externalities. These results provide the first evidence on the heterogeneous wealth effects of a wave of new rent control laws.
{"title":"The redistribution of housing wealth caused by rent control","authors":"Kenneth R. Ahern , Marco Giacoletti","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2026.103845","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2026.103845","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the effects of rent control on the housing wealth of renters, landlords, and homeowners. Following the passage of rent control in St. Paul, Minnesota in 2021, average property values fell by 4.0% to 5.5%. Leveraging parcel-level data, we show that in the aggregate, renters gained and landlords lost, though upper-income renters gained more than lower-income renters, while small landlords lost the same as large landlords. Owner-occupants’ wealth also fell significantly from direct capitalization effects and negative externalities. These results provide the first evidence on the heterogeneous wealth effects of a wave of new rent control laws.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103845"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147398657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-05DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2026.103830
W. Bowman Cutter , Sofia F. Franco , W. Skyler Lewis
This paper examines the shadow cost of minimum parking requirements (MPRs) for commercial real estate in Los Angeles County. This cost is defined as the difference between a parking space's market value and its combined construction and land costs. To estimate this shadow cost on a property-by-property basis, we use Mixed Geographically Weighted hedonic estimates to determine the value of on-site parking and location-specific parking cost estimates. Our methodology could also be applied to analyze the cost gradients of other zoning regulations, such as height limits and inclusionary housing.
Our results show that the implicit MPR costs vary widely, representing a significant gradient across the county. These costs are substantial relative to building construction expenses, allowing us to quantify how MPRs increase the cost of urban development.
In dense, high-value areas of Los Angeles County, the MPR costs for smaller properties can be as high as 30% of construction costs. In contrast, properties in outlying areas often have no binding MPRs. A real-world market test and instrumental variables approach further support the robustness of our findings.
{"title":"The topography of regulatory costs: The shadow cost-gradient of parking standards","authors":"W. Bowman Cutter , Sofia F. Franco , W. Skyler Lewis","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2026.103830","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2026.103830","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the shadow cost of minimum parking requirements (MPRs) for commercial real estate in Los Angeles County. This cost is defined as the difference between a parking space's market value and its combined construction and land costs. To estimate this shadow cost on a property-by-property basis, we use Mixed Geographically Weighted hedonic estimates to determine the value of on-site parking and location-specific parking cost estimates. Our methodology could also be applied to analyze the cost gradients of other zoning regulations, such as height limits and inclusionary housing.</div><div>Our results show that the implicit MPR costs vary widely, representing a significant gradient across the county. These costs are substantial relative to building construction expenses, allowing us to quantify how MPRs increase the cost of urban development.</div><div>In dense, high-value areas of Los Angeles County, the MPR costs for smaller properties can be as high as 30% of construction costs. In contrast, properties in outlying areas often have no binding MPRs. A real-world market test and instrumental variables approach further support the robustness of our findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103830"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146190151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2026.103832
Sena Coskun , Wolfgang Dauth , Hermann Gartner , Michael Stops , Enzo Weber
This paper examines how the increased acceptance of working from home during and after the Covid-19 pandemic shapes how labor market and locality choices interact. We combine large administrative data on employment biographies in Germany and a new working from home potential indicator based on comprehensive data on working conditions across occupations. We find that, in the wake of the pandemic, the distance between workplace and residence has increased more strongly for workers in occupations that can be done from home: The association of working from home potential and work–home distance increased significantly since 2021 as compared to a stable pattern before. The effect is much larger for new jobs, suggesting that people match to jobs with high working from home potential that are further away than before the pandemic. Most of this effect stems from jobs in big cities, which indicates that working from home alleviates constraints by tight housing markets. We find no significant evidence that commuting patterns changed more strongly for women than for men.
{"title":"Working from home increases work–home distances","authors":"Sena Coskun , Wolfgang Dauth , Hermann Gartner , Michael Stops , Enzo Weber","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2026.103832","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2026.103832","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how the increased acceptance of working from home during and after the Covid-19 pandemic shapes how labor market and locality choices interact. We combine large administrative data on employment biographies in Germany and a new working from home potential indicator based on comprehensive data on working conditions across occupations. We find that, in the wake of the pandemic, the distance between workplace and residence has increased more strongly for workers in occupations that can be done from home: The association of working from home potential and work–home distance increased significantly since 2021 as compared to a stable pattern before. The effect is much larger for new jobs, suggesting that people match to jobs with high working from home potential that are further away than before the pandemic. Most of this effect stems from jobs in big cities, which indicates that working from home alleviates constraints by tight housing markets. We find no significant evidence that commuting patterns changed more strongly for women than for men.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103832"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2026.103844
Mario F. Carillo , Lavinia Piemontese , Francesco Flaviano Russo
We hypothesize and establish empirically that the effects of migrant integration policies on housing wealth are influenced by public attention to immigration. Using a unique policy converting temporary refugee reception centers into integration facilities, we conduct an event study analysis. Our results show that timing matters: implementation during times of high public attention to immigration reduces housing wealth, while implementation during times of low attention has no impact. These findings suggest that the backlash effect of integration policies estimated in the literature may be driven by public perceptions of migration crises.
{"title":"When the neighbors are watching: Immigrant integration policy and housing wealth","authors":"Mario F. Carillo , Lavinia Piemontese , Francesco Flaviano Russo","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2026.103844","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2026.103844","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We hypothesize and establish empirically that the effects of migrant integration policies on housing wealth are influenced by public attention to immigration. Using a unique policy converting temporary refugee reception centers into integration facilities, we conduct an event study analysis. Our results show that timing matters: implementation during times of high public attention to immigration reduces housing wealth, while implementation during times of low attention has no impact. These findings suggest that the backlash effect of integration policies estimated in the literature may be driven by public perceptions of migration crises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103844"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147398656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103829
Zachary Porreca
I analyze the demand side impacts of a supply-side intervention into the market for illegal drugs in what has been described as America’s largest open-air drug market. Beginning in 2018, the Pennsylvania Attorney General’s office and the Philadelphia Police Department engaged in an ambitious effort to shut down the drug market in Philadelphia’s Kensington neighborhood. The intervention involved increased police presence in the targeted area alongside a series of targeted “kingpin” sweeps which were intended to remove the most pervasive operators from the market. I employ highly granular SafeGraph cell phone location data to track changes in traffic flows between census block groups, observing that the Initiative led to sizeable and persistent reductions in traffic flows to the target area. Additionally, in contrast to substitution effects observed in other work, I observe that the Initiative led to reductions in traffic flows to other regional drug markets and large declines in overdose mortality in the Philadelphia metropolitan area as a whole, suggesting a genuine reduction in the quantity of illegal narcotics demanded. With a combination of theory and empirics, I argue that this reduction in the quantity demanded regionally is able to be achieved due to the Initiative disrupting a supply-chain that data indicates flows from the target area outwards to smaller satellite markets. Together this all suggests that, despite the inelastic demand for narcotics, regionally linked markets can be impacted broadly by location specific interventions.
{"title":"Identifying the general equilibrium effects of narcotics enforcement","authors":"Zachary Porreca","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103829","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103829","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I analyze the demand side impacts of a supply-side intervention into the market for illegal drugs in what has been described as America’s largest open-air drug market. Beginning in 2018, the Pennsylvania Attorney General’s office and the Philadelphia Police Department engaged in an ambitious effort to shut down the drug market in Philadelphia’s Kensington neighborhood. The intervention involved increased police presence in the targeted area alongside a series of targeted “kingpin” sweeps which were intended to remove the most pervasive operators from the market. I employ highly granular SafeGraph cell phone location data to track changes in traffic flows between census block groups, observing that the Initiative led to sizeable and persistent reductions in traffic flows to the target area. Additionally, in contrast to substitution effects observed in other work, I observe that the Initiative led to reductions in traffic flows to other regional drug markets and large declines in overdose mortality in the Philadelphia metropolitan area as a whole, suggesting a genuine reduction in the quantity of illegal narcotics demanded. With a combination of theory and empirics, I argue that this reduction in the quantity demanded regionally is able to be achieved due to the Initiative disrupting a supply-chain that data indicates flows from the target area outwards to smaller satellite markets. Together this all suggests that, despite the inelastic demand for narcotics, regionally linked markets can be impacted broadly by location specific interventions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103829"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-05DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2026.103842
Fernando Ferreira , Joseph Gyourko
We study the relationship between housing supply and political partisanship in US cities using an expanded database of mayoral elections combined with local housing permits since 1980. The endogeneity of which party holds the mayoral office is addressed via a regression discontinuity design that relies on closely contested races between Republicans and Democrats. Across a variety of election samples and econometric specifications, we find that partisanship does not have a statistically or economically significant effect on the supply of total, single- or multifamily housing unit permits despite recent increases in measured partisanship. This suggests that solutions to limitations on housing supply will not be dependent upon the political party in power at the local level.
{"title":"Does political partisanship affect housing supply? Evidence from US cities","authors":"Fernando Ferreira , Joseph Gyourko","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2026.103842","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2026.103842","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the relationship between housing supply and political partisanship in US cities using an expanded database of mayoral elections combined with local housing permits since 1980. The endogeneity of which party holds the mayoral office is addressed via a regression discontinuity design that relies on closely contested races between Republicans and Democrats. Across a variety of election samples and econometric specifications, we find that partisanship does not have a statistically or economically significant effect on the supply of total, single- or multifamily housing unit permits despite recent increases in measured partisanship. This suggests that solutions to limitations on housing supply will not be dependent upon the political party in power at the local level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103842"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146190152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-20DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2026.103831
Pierre Magontier , Rodrigo Martinez-Mazza
This paper examines the effects of floods on urban development dynamics using geolocalized data on the universe of buildings in Spain from 1996 to 2021. We provide empirical evidence that floods promote local urban development, resulting in taller, more compact urban layouts that attract populations, increase property values, and shift land use away from the agricultural and industrial sectors. We argue that adaptive responses to natural disasters may trigger positive local spillovers strong enough to overcompensate for the flood’s destructive nature.
{"title":"JUE insight: Floods & urban density","authors":"Pierre Magontier , Rodrigo Martinez-Mazza","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2026.103831","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2026.103831","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the effects of floods on urban development dynamics using geolocalized data on the universe of buildings in Spain from 1996 to 2021. We provide empirical evidence that floods promote local urban development, resulting in taller, more compact urban layouts that attract populations, increase property values, and shift land use away from the agricultural and industrial sectors. We argue that adaptive responses to natural disasters may trigger positive local spillovers strong enough to overcompensate for the flood’s destructive nature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103831"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145996553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-07DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2026.103843
Andreas Fidjeland , Tora Knutsen , Magnus Stubhaug
Does the location of higher education institutions affect where graduates live? We use Norway’s centralized admissions system as a natural experiment to quantify the causal effect of study location on residence later in life. Leveraging students’ rankings of study programs and locations alongside GPA-based admission scores, we identify unpredictable cutoffs that create discontinuities in admission for near-identical applicants. Our analysis shows that being admitted to the preferred study location increases the likelihood of residing in the same region after graduation by 15–20 percentage points. This effect is consistent across both larger and smaller cities, highlighting the “stickiness” of educational locations.
{"title":"Sticky places: The effect of college on where you live","authors":"Andreas Fidjeland , Tora Knutsen , Magnus Stubhaug","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2026.103843","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2026.103843","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does the location of higher education institutions affect where graduates live? We use Norway’s centralized admissions system as a natural experiment to quantify the causal effect of study location on residence later in life. Leveraging students’ rankings of study programs and locations alongside GPA-based admission scores, we identify unpredictable cutoffs that create discontinuities in admission for near-identical applicants. Our analysis shows that being admitted to the preferred study location increases the likelihood of residing in the same region after graduation by 15–20 percentage points. This effect is consistent across both larger and smaller cities, highlighting the “stickiness” of educational locations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103843"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146190153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-02DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103827
Greg Howard
The internal migration literature has estimated a wide range of moving costs, including some that are several times larger than annual income. How should economists interpret this estimate? I show that in standard models, average moving costs can be decomposed into an “information” term and a “returns to migration” term. The information term is proportional to the Shannon entropy of next period’s location minus the Shannon information of staying in the same location. In simple models, the information term is much larger than the returns to migration term; in some cases, the returns to migration term is zero. Therefore, average moving costs are a helpful statistic about the model’s predictive power regarding future moves but are not invariant to seemingly innocuous choices of the modeler.
{"title":"JUE insight: Moving cost magnitudes in moving cost models","authors":"Greg Howard","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103827","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103827","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The internal migration literature has estimated a wide range of moving costs, including some that are several times larger than annual income. How should economists interpret this estimate? I show that in standard models, average moving costs can be decomposed into an “information” term and a “returns to migration” term. The information term is proportional to the Shannon entropy of next period’s location minus the Shannon information of staying in the same location. In simple models, the information term is much larger than the returns to migration term; in some cases, the returns to migration term is zero. Therefore, average moving costs are a helpful statistic about the model’s predictive power regarding future moves but are not invariant to seemingly innocuous choices of the modeler.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103827"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145693935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-18DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103816
David Glancy , Robert Kurtzman , Lara Loewenstein
We use microdata on the phases of commercial construction projects to document three facts regarding the sector’s time-to-plan lags: (1) plan times are long and highly variable, (2) nearly half of projects in planning are abandoned, and (3) property-price appreciation reduces the likelihood of abandonment. We present a tractable model of endogenous planning starts and abandonment that can match these facts. The model has the testable implication that supply is more elastic when there are more “shovel ready” projects ready for construction. We use local projections to validate this prediction in a panel dataset for US cities.
{"title":"JUE Insight: Shovel ready projects and commercial construction activity’s long and variable lags","authors":"David Glancy , Robert Kurtzman , Lara Loewenstein","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103816","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103816","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use microdata on the phases of commercial construction projects to document three facts regarding the sector’s time-to-plan lags: (1) plan times are long and highly variable, (2) nearly half of projects in planning are abandoned, and (3) property-price appreciation reduces the likelihood of abandonment. We present a tractable model of endogenous planning starts and abandonment that can match these facts. The model has the testable implication that supply is more elastic when there are more “shovel ready” projects ready for construction. We use local projections to validate this prediction in a panel dataset for US cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103816"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145532709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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