Journal of Urban Economics最新文献

英文中文

Working from home increases work–home distances 在家工作增加了工作与家庭的距离

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2026.103832

Sena Coskun , Wolfgang Dauth , Hermann Gartner , Michael Stops , Enzo Weber

This paper examines how the increased acceptance of working from home during and after the Covid-19 pandemic shapes how labor market and locality choices interact. We combine large administrative data on employment biographies in Germany and a new working from home potential indicator based on comprehensive data on working conditions across occupations. We find that, in the wake of the pandemic, the distance between workplace and residence has increased more strongly for workers in occupations that can be done from home: The association of working from home potential and work–home distance increased significantly since 2021 as compared to a stable pattern before. The effect is much larger for new jobs, suggesting that people match to jobs with high working from home potential that are further away than before the pandemic. Most of this effect stems from jobs in big cities, which indicates that working from home alleviates constraints by tight housing markets. We find no significant evidence that commuting patterns changed more strongly for women than for men.

本文探讨了在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间和之后，人们对在家工作的接受程度不断提高，如何影响劳动力市场和地方选择的相互作用。我们结合了德国就业履历的大量行政数据，以及一个基于各职业工作条件综合数据的新的在家工作潜力指标。我们发现，在大流行之后，对于那些可以在家工作的职业的工人来说，工作场所和住所之间的距离增加得更大：与之前的稳定模式相比，自2021年以来，在家工作潜力和工作与家庭距离的关联显著增加。这种影响对新工作的影响要大得多，这表明人们适合在家工作的可能性高的工作，这些工作比疫情前更远。这种影响主要来自大城市的就业，这表明在家工作缓解了住房市场紧张的限制。我们没有发现明显的证据表明女性通勤模式的变化比男性更强烈。

引用次数: 0

Identifying the general equilibrium effects of narcotics enforcement 确定缉毒行动的一般平衡效应

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103829

Zachary Porreca

I analyze the demand side impacts of a supply-side intervention into the market for illegal drugs in what has been described as America’s largest open-air drug market. Beginning in 2018, the Pennsylvania Attorney General’s office and the Philadelphia Police Department engaged in an ambitious effort to shut down the drug market in Philadelphia’s Kensington neighborhood. The intervention involved increased police presence in the targeted area alongside a series of targeted “kingpin” sweeps which were intended to remove the most pervasive operators from the market. I employ highly granular SafeGraph cell phone location data to track changes in traffic flows between census block groups, observing that the Initiative led to sizeable and persistent reductions in traffic flows to the target area. Additionally, in contrast to substitution effects observed in other work, I observe that the Initiative led to reductions in traffic flows to other regional drug markets and large declines in overdose mortality in the Philadelphia metropolitan area as a whole, suggesting a genuine reduction in the quantity of illegal narcotics demanded. With a combination of theory and empirics, I argue that this reduction in the quantity demanded regionally is able to be achieved due to the Initiative disrupting a supply-chain that data indicates flows from the target area outwards to smaller satellite markets. Together this all suggests that, despite the inelastic demand for narcotics, regionally linked markets can be impacted broadly by location specific interventions.

我分析了在被称为美国最大的露天毒品市场上对非法毒品市场进行供给方干预的需求方面的影响。从2018年开始，宾夕法尼亚州总检察长办公室和费城警察局进行了一项雄心勃勃的努力，以关闭费城肯辛顿社区的毒品市场。干预措施包括在目标地区增加警力，同时进行一系列有针对性的“主谋”扫荡，目的是将最猖獗的经营者赶出市场。我使用高度精细的SafeGraph手机位置数据来跟踪人口普查街区之间交通流量的变化，观察到该计划导致了目标区域交通流量的大幅持续减少。此外，与在其他工作中观察到的替代效应相反，我注意到，该倡议导致流向其他区域毒品市场的流量减少，整个费城大都市区吸毒过量死亡率大幅下降，表明非法麻醉品需求的数量确实减少了。结合理论和经验，我认为区域需求量的减少是能够实现的，因为该倡议破坏了供应链，数据表明供应链从目标区域向外流向较小的卫星市场。所有这些都表明，尽管对麻醉品的需求缺乏弹性，但区域联系的市场可以受到特定地点干预措施的广泛影响。

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引用次数: 0

JUE insight: Floods & urban density JUE insight：洪水与城市密度

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2026.103831

Pierre Magontier , Rodrigo Martinez-Mazza

This paper examines the effects of floods on urban development dynamics using geolocalized data on the universe of buildings in Spain from 1996 to 2021. We provide empirical evidence that floods promote local urban development, resulting in taller, more compact urban layouts that attract populations, increase property values, and shift land use away from the agricultural and industrial sectors. We argue that adaptive responses to natural disasters may trigger positive local spillovers strong enough to overcompensate for the flood’s destructive nature.

本文利用1996年至2021年西班牙建筑的地理定位数据，研究了洪水对城市发展动态的影响。我们提供的经验证据表明，洪水促进了当地的城市发展，导致更高、更紧凑的城市布局，吸引了人口，提高了房地产价值，并转移了农业和工业部门的土地利用。我们认为，对自然灾害的适应性反应可能会引发积极的局部溢出效应，足以过度补偿洪水的破坏性。

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Impact of fertility relaxation on the housing market outcomes” [Journal of Urban Economics Volume 150, November 2025, 103812] “放宽生育政策对房地产市场结果的影响”的勘误表[城市经济学杂志，第150卷，2025年11月，103812]

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103828

Keyang Li , Yixun Tang , Qiuyi Wang

引用次数: 0

Industrial Transfer Policy in China: Migration and development 中国产业转移政策：迁移与发展

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103815

Michiel Gerritse, Zhiling Wang, Frank van Oort

China’s Industrial Transfer Policy (ITP) is a novel place-based development policy of unprecedented scale. The policy targets a set of inland cities aiming (i) to grow them in size and (ii) to restructure them into manufacturing hubs. These cities would eventually relieve pressure in China’s coastal manufacturing hubs. We use a detailed migrant survey to estimate the impact of ITP on targeted cities by matching cities on policy assignment propensities. The ITP status led to a rapid but short-lived growth of migrant inflows up to 60%, representing millions of internal migrations. Migrants in manufacturing and from coastal origins show stronger migration and wage responses. However, skilled migrants respond less elastically, and migrant employment in manufacturing is offset by the exit of native workers. Additionally, manufacturing industries in targeted cities show no development in terms of output, pollution or production strategies. The ITP expands the population of targeted cities, but the evidence for a restructuring of the cities is weak.

中国的产业转移政策是一项规模空前的基于地方的新型发展政策。该政策的目标是一系列内陆城市，旨在(1)扩大它们的规模，(2)将它们重组为制造业中心。这些城市最终将缓解中国沿海制造业中心的压力。我们使用了一项详细的移民调查，通过匹配城市的政策分配倾向来估计ITP对目标城市的影响。ITP的地位导致移民流入快速但短暂增长，高达60%，代表数百万国内移民。制造业和沿海地区的移民表现出更强的迁移和工资反应。然而，技术移民的反应不那么灵活，而且制造业的移民就业被本土工人的退出所抵消。此外，目标城市的制造业在产出、污染或生产策略方面没有任何发展。ITP扩大了目标城市的人口，但城市结构调整的证据很弱。

引用次数: 0

JUE insight: Moving cost magnitudes in moving cost models JUE insight：移动成本模型中的移动成本大小

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103827

Greg Howard

The internal migration literature has estimated a wide range of moving costs, including some that are several times larger than annual income. How should economists interpret this estimate? I show that in standard models, average moving costs can be decomposed into an “information” term and a “returns to migration” term. The information term is proportional to the Shannon entropy of next period’s location minus the Shannon information of staying in the same location. In simple models, the information term is much larger than the returns to migration term; in some cases, the returns to migration term is zero. Therefore, average moving costs are a helpful statistic about the model’s predictive power regarding future moves but are not invariant to seemingly innocuous choices of the modeler.

国内移民文献估计了各种各样的迁移成本，包括一些比年收入高出几倍的成本。经济学家应该如何解释这一估计？我表明，在标准模型中，平均迁移成本可以分解为“信息”项和“迁移回报”项。信息项正比于下一个周期位置的香农熵减去停留在同一位置的香农信息。在简单模型中，信息项远大于迁移回报项；在某些情况下，迁移项的回报为零。因此，平均移动成本是关于模型对未来移动的预测能力的有用统计数据，但对于建模者看似无害的选择并不是不变的。

引用次数: 0

JUE Insight: Shovel ready projects and commercial construction activity’s long and variable lags JUE Insight：准备开工的项目和商业建设活动的长期和可变滞后

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103816

David Glancy , Robert Kurtzman , Lara Loewenstein

We use microdata on the phases of commercial construction projects to document three facts regarding the sector’s time-to-plan lags: (1) plan times are long and highly variable, (2) nearly half of projects in planning are abandoned, and (3) property-price appreciation reduces the likelihood of abandonment. We present a tractable model of endogenous planning starts and abandonment that can match these facts. The model has the testable implication that supply is more elastic when there are more “shovel ready” projects ready for construction. We use local projections to validate this prediction in a panel dataset for US cities.

我们使用商业建设项目阶段的微观数据来记录有关该行业计划滞后的三个事实：(1)计划时间很长且变化很大；(2)近一半的计划项目被放弃；(3)房地产价格升值降低了放弃的可能性。我们提出了一个可处理的内源性规划开始和放弃模型，可以匹配这些事实。该模型具有可验证的含义，即当有更多“准备开工”的项目准备建设时，供应更具弹性。我们在美国城市的面板数据集中使用本地预测来验证这一预测。

引用次数: 0

Will you follow your job to the suburbs? 你会为了工作搬到郊区去吗？

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103814

Gregory Verdugo , Malak Kandoussi

We examine how relocations from the center to the suburbs of establishments employing mainly skilled workers affect the composition and wages of their employees. Using data from the Paris metro area, we find that these relocations increase average commuting time by 19%. In response, firms compensate highly paid workers with 10 to 20% of their hourly wage per additional hour of commuting. Lower-paid workers receive no compensation and are more likely to leave. Consistent with workers valuing locational amenities, we find little increase in separation and no wage adjustment for increased commuting time when establishments relocate to more attractive neighborhoods.

我们研究了主要雇用技术工人的机构从中心到郊区的搬迁如何影响其雇员的构成和工资。利用巴黎都市区的数据，我们发现这些搬迁增加了19%的平均通勤时间。作为回应，公司给高薪员工每增加一小时的通勤时间，支付其时薪的10%至20%。低薪员工得不到补偿，更有可能离职。与重视位置便利的工人一致，我们发现当企业搬迁到更具吸引力的社区时，分离率几乎没有增加，通勤时间的增加也没有工资调整。

引用次数: 0

Follow thy neighbor: The role of first exporters 跟随邻居：第一出口商的角色

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103813

Hao Fe , Yang Liang , Mary E. Lovely

Exporting to foreign markets offers new opportunities for growth and expansion, but also comes with inherent challenges and risks. To mitigate these uncertainties, firms often learn from neighboring firms that are geographically close (Koenig et al. 2010; Silvente and Giménez 2007). Accounting for endogenous sorting of firms across space within cities, we present novel evidence of export spillovers at finely detailed spatial scales. Our findings suggest that firms located in the immediate vicinity of a local first exporter – a firm initiating a new seller-market – are 38% more likely to enter the same market the following year, compared to firms that lack a nearby first exporter. This effect is twice as large as export spillovers from later exporters in the same area. Our mechanism analysis suggests that the spillover effect is likely driven by the flow of information, facilitated by close proximity.

对外出口为中国经济增长和扩大提供了新的机遇，但也面临着固有的挑战和风险。为了减轻这些不确定性，企业通常会向地理位置相近的相邻企业学习（Koenig et al. 2010; Silvente and gimsamnez 2007）。考虑到企业在城市内部空间的内生排序，我们在精细的空间尺度上提出了出口溢出效应的新证据。我们的研究结果表明，与附近没有第一出口商的公司相比，位于当地第一出口商附近的公司（即启动新的卖方市场的公司）第二年进入同一市场的可能性要高38%。这种影响是同一地区后发出口国出口溢出效应的两倍。我们的机制分析表明，这种溢出效应很可能是由信息流动驱动的，并由近距离促进。

引用次数: 0

Tourism growth, education decline: Evidence from China’s 5A attraction expansion 旅游增长，教育下降：来自中国5A级景区扩张的证据

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103811

Zeyi He , Zhi-An Hu , Wei Huang , Yankun Kang

This paper examines how tourism expansion, driven by the establishment of China’s top-tier tourist attractions, affects human capital accumulation. We find that exposure to tourism growth before age 17 significantly reduces high school enrollment, particularly among disadvantaged individuals and in less-developed regions. Mechanism analysis indicates that individuals make schooling decisions by weighing the opportunity cost of continued education against its expected long-term returns. Moreover, following tourism expansion, we observe declines in parental educational expectations and investments, alongside poorer academic performance among children. These findings highlight the complex trade-offs between tourism-led economic growth and educational development.

本文考察了在中国顶级旅游景点建设的推动下，旅游业扩张对人力资本积累的影响。我们发现，在17岁之前接触到旅游业的增长显著降低了高中入学率，特别是在弱势群体和欠发达地区。机制分析表明，个人通过权衡继续教育的机会成本和预期的长期回报来做出上学决策。此外，随着旅游业的发展，我们观察到父母对教育的期望和投资有所下降，同时孩子们的学习成绩也有所下降。这些发现突出了旅游业带动的经济增长和教育发展之间的复杂权衡。

引用次数: 0

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