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The economic cost of locking down like China: Evidence from city-to-city truck flows
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of Urban Economics
Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103729
Jingjing Chen , Wei Chen , Ernest Liu , Jie Luo , Zheng Song
Containing the COVID-19 pandemic by non-pharmacological interventions is costly. Using high-frequency, city-to-city truck flow data, this paper estimates the economic cost of lockdown in China, a stringent yet effective policy prior to the Omicron surge. By comparing the truck flow change in the cities with and without lockdown, we find that a one-month full-scale lockdown causally reduces the truck flows connected to the locked down city in the month by 54%, implying a decline of the city’s real income with the same proportion in a gravity model of city-to-city trade. We also structurally estimate the cost of lockdown in the gravity model, where the effects of lockdown can spill over to other cities through trade linkages. Imposing full-scale lockdown on the four largest cities in China (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen) for one month would reduce the real national GDP by 8.7%, of which 8.5% is contributed by the spillover effects.
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引用次数: 0
Who bears the burden of real estate transfer taxes? Evidence from the German housing market 谁承担了房地产转让税的负担？来自德国住房市场的证据
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of Urban Economics
Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103717
Mathias Dolls , Clemens Fuest , Carla Krolage , Florian Neumeier
This paper examines the effects of real estate transfer taxes (RETT) on property prices using a rich micro dataset of roughly 17 million German properties for the period from 2005 to 2019. Our empirical analysis exploits variation in RETT rate hikes across German states and over time. Our monthly event study estimates indicate a price response that strongly exceeds the change in the tax burden for single transactions. Twelve months after a reform, a one percentage point increase in the tax rate reduces property prices by on average 3%. Price effects are larger for apartments (−4%) than for single-family houses (−2%). Exploring potential mechanisms, we provide evidence that different holding periods are the main driver of the differential price effect between property types.
本文利用 2005 年至 2019 年期间德国约 1700 万套房产的丰富微观数据集，研究了房地产转让税（RETT）对房地产价格的影响。我们的实证分析利用了德国各州房地产转让税税率随时间的变化。我们的月度事件研究估计结果表明，单笔交易的价格反应大大超过了税负的变化。改革 12 个月后，税率提高一个百分点，房产价格平均下降 3%。对公寓价格的影响（-4%）大于对独栋住宅的影响（-2%）。在探索潜在机制的过程中，我们发现不同的持有期是造成不同物业类型之间价格效应差异的主要原因。
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引用次数: 0
Local favoritism in China's public procurement: Information frictions or incentive distortion? 中国政府采购中的地方偏袒：信息摩擦还是激励扭曲？
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of Urban Economics
Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103716
Wei TANG , Yuan WANG , Jiameng WU
This paper aims to disentangle the roles of information frictions and career incentives of local officials in the allocation of government contracts. Drawing on a unique dataset including both winning and losing bidders of public procurement auctions in China, we document a strong local bias in the contract allocation. These patterns are hardly reconciled with explanations rooted in information frictions or corruption. Instead, we highlight the role of local leaders’ career incentives, presenting evidence that local favoritism is more pronounced in localities with more incentivized mayors. Our findings prompt a reconsideration of the effectiveness of bureaucratic discretion in allocating public resources. (JEL H57, H77, H72, D73, R51)
本文旨在厘清信息摩擦和地方官员职业激励在政府合同分配中的作用。利用包括中国公共采购拍卖中的中标者和落标者在内的独特数据集，我们记录了合同分配中强烈的地方偏差。这些模式很难与根植于信息摩擦或腐败的解释相协调。相反，我们强调了地方领导人职业激励机制的作用，并提出证据表明，在市长激励机制较强的地方，地方偏好更为明显。我们的发现促使人们重新考虑官僚自由裁量权在公共资源分配中的有效性。(JEL H57, H77, H72, D73, R51)
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引用次数: 0
Commuting, gender and children 通勤、性别和儿童
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of Urban Economics
Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103709
Malte Borghorst , Ismir Mulalic , Jos van Ommeren
We demonstrate that women with children are much more likely to leave their job when they have a long commute, which is not true for men. Interpreting these results through the lens of a dynamic search model, we demonstrate that commuting costs increase substantially for women after they have children. For women with children, a 12 kilometer increase in commuting distance induces costs equivalent to about 20% of their wage.
我们证明，有孩子的女性在通勤时间较长的情况下更有可能离职，而男性则不然。通过动态搜索模型来解释这些结果，我们证明，有了孩子之后，女性的通勤成本会大幅增加。对于有孩子的女性来说，通勤距离每增加 12 公里，其成本就会增加约 20%。
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引用次数: 0
China’s commuting-based metropolitan areas 中国以通勤为基础的大都市区
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of Urban Economics
Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103715
Ting Chen , Yizhen Gu , Ben Zou
Using commuting flows derived from cellphone location data at fine geographical levels, this paper presents the first delineation of China’s commuting-based metropolitan areas (MAs). The size distribution of those MAs follows a power law, with larger MAs hosting more skilled workers, more productive firms, and offering higher wage premiums. China’s commuting-based MAs exhibit a few notable features compared to several other large countries. First, commutes are short in both time and distance and rarely cross administrative boundaries. Second, China’s MAs are small relative to the size of the country, with MA sizes highly correlated with the administrative hierarchy. We discuss existing policies that may have contributed to these characteristics. We demonstrate that commuting-based MAs differ substantively from other definitions of Chinese cities. The commuting-based MAs provide a valuable tool for researchers who need to define Chinese cities as local labor markets but are limited by the availability of official delineations.
本文利用从手机定位数据中提取的精细地理层级的通勤流量，首次对中国基于通勤的都市圈（MAs）进行了划分。这些都市圈的规模分布遵循幂律，规模较大的都市圈拥有更多的技术工人、更高产的企业，并提供更高的工资溢价。与其他几个大国相比，中国以通勤为基础的大都市区呈现出几个显著特点。首先，通勤的时间和距离都很短，而且很少跨越行政边界。其次，相对于国土面积而言，中国的通勤补贴规模较小，通勤补贴规模与行政级别高度相关。我们讨论了可能导致这些特征的现有政策。我们证明，以通勤为基础的千年发展目标与其他中国城市定义有本质区别。对于那些需要将中国城市定义为本地劳动力市场，但又受限于官方划分的研究人员来说，基于通勤的千年生态系统提供了一个有价值的工具。
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引用次数: 0
JUE 2007–2023: Rising impact 觉》2007-2023：不断上升的影响
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of Urban Economics
Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103713
Stuart S. Rosenthal , William C. Strange
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引用次数: 0
Urban and spatial economics after 50 years 50 年后的城市和空间经济学
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of Urban Economics
Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103711
J. Vernon Henderson , Jacques-François Thisse
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引用次数: 0
The city-wide effects of tolling downtown drivers: Evidence from London’s congestion charge 对市区驾驶员收费的全城效应：伦敦交通拥堵收费的证据
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of Urban Economics
Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103714
Ian Herzog
This paper studies effects of London’s Congestion Charge on regional traffic, commuting, and economic activity’s spatial distribution. London began tolling drivers into its central business district in 2003 and I find that the policy reduced traffic on untolled roads leading downtown. I build this effect into a quantitative model with heterogeneous skills, endogenous mode choice, and traffic externalities to examine effects on commuters. Simulations suggest that London’s Congestion Charge incentivizes driving to untolled workplaces and gives the region’s commuters positive net benefits. I also find that benefits are progressive because the policy reduces traffic where low-skill commuters live and work.
本文研究了伦敦拥堵费对区域交通、通勤和经济活动空间分布的影响。伦敦于 2003 年开始对进入其中央商务区的司机收费，我发现该政策减少了通往市中心的不收费道路的交通量。我将这一效果纳入一个具有异质技能、内生模式选择和交通外部性的定量模型中，以考察对通勤者的影响。模拟结果表明，伦敦的拥堵费激励人们驾车前往不收费的工作场所，给该地区的通勤者带来了积极的净收益。我还发现，由于该政策减少了低技能通勤者居住和工作地点的交通流量，因此收益是累进的。
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引用次数: 0
Journal of Urban Economics, 1991–2007 城市经济学杂志》，1991-2007 年
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of Urban Economics
Pub Date : 2024-10-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103712
Jan K. Brueckner
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引用次数: 0
Forward to the Special Issue “Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Journal of Urban Economics” 特刊 "庆祝《城市经济学杂志》创刊 50 周年 "前言
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of Urban Economics
Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103710
Nathaniel Baum-Snow , Kristian Behrens
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引用次数: 0
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