Journal of Urban Economics最新文献

英文中文

Impact of fertility relaxation on the housing market outcomes 放宽生育对房地产市场结果的影响

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103812

Keyang Li , Yixun Tang , Qiuyi Wang

Using an administrative microlevel dataset of housing resale transactions in a major Chinese city, we exploit China's relaxation of the One-Child Policy in 2013 as an exogenous shock on fertility to analyze the effect of fertility relaxation on housing market outcomes. Our results show that housing prices (transaction volume) for units with more bedrooms increased by 2.2% (9.9%) compared with those with fewer bedrooms after the policy announcement. Consistently, city-level analysis employing an alternative identification strategy reveals that cities experiencing greater exposure to the policy change exhibited more pronounced increases in housing prices after the fertility relaxation. The underlying mechanism is related to increased fertility, as the surge in housing demand for units with more bedrooms was primarily driven by younger buyers aged 18–29 with higher fertility intentions. Our findings reveal the consequences of fertility relaxation on the housing market, which have important implications for fertility and housing policy development.

本文利用中国一个主要城市住房转售交易的行政微观数据集，利用2013年中国放宽独生子女政策作为对生育率的外生冲击，分析了生育政策放宽对住房市场结果的影响。我们的研究结果显示，在政策公布后，卧室较多的单位的房价（交易量）比卧室较少的单位上涨了2.2%（9.9%）。与此一致的是，采用替代识别策略的城市层面分析显示，受政策变化影响较大的城市在生育政策放松后房价上涨更为明显。潜在的机制与生育率的提高有关，因为对多卧室住房的需求激增主要是由18-29岁的年轻买家推动的，他们有更高的生育意愿。我们的研究结果揭示了生育率放宽对住房市场的影响，这对生育率和住房政策的制定具有重要意义。

引用次数: 0

Tastes, geography and culture 品味、地理和文化

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103800

Eve Colson-Sihra , José De Sousa , Thierry Mayer

Does geography shape tastes? This paper investigates the geography of tastes using French household surveys from 1974 and 2005. We propose a two-step method: first, we estimate regional tastes using a structural demand system; then, we compute bilateral taste differences and link them to geographic distance. The 1974 results provide evidence of ‘gravity in taste’—that is, geographically closer regions have more similar food tastes. By 2005, this geographic pattern has largely disappeared. However, tastes are not homogenized. Regional diversity persists, with differences in taste determined by sociocultural similarity rather than geographic distance.

地理塑造口味吗？本文利用1974年至2005年的法国家庭调查调查了口味的地理分布。我们提出了一种两步法：首先，我们使用结构需求系统来估计区域口味；然后，我们计算双方的口味差异，并将其与地理距离联系起来。1974年的研究结果提供了“味觉引力”的证据，也就是说，地理位置越近的地区，食物的味道越相似。到2005年，这种地理格局已基本消失。然而，品味并不是同质化的。地域差异依然存在，品味的差异是由社会文化的相似性而不是地理距离决定的。

引用次数: 0

Death, destruction, and growth in cities: Entrepreneurial capital and economic geography after the 1918 influenza 城市中的死亡、破坏和增长：1918年流感后的创业资本和经济地理

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103810

Robert B. Fluegge

How does city growth respond to catastrophe? I propose a model in which local entrepreneurs have a comparative advantage in starting local businesses and business creation benefits from business activity. The model predicts that cities stagnate following a reduction in local human capital but, consistent with established facts about city resilience, recover after the destruction of local physical capital. I test for the predicted effects of a shock to human capital using U.S. city populations after the 1918 Influenza Pandemic, which killed 0.5% of residents in the largest U.S. cities. Instrumenting for Flu incidence with local weather at the peak of the epidemic, I show that cities with high influenza mortality had persistently low population levels and growth rates, with estimates implying that a 10% increase in Flu incidence caused a 13% reduction in 2010 population.

城市发展如何应对灾难？我提出了一种模式，在这种模式下，本地企业家在开办本地企业方面具有比较优势，而企业创建则从商业活动中受益。该模型预测，城市在当地人力资本减少后会陷入停滞，但与有关城市韧性的既定事实一致，在当地物质资本遭到破坏后，城市会复苏。我以1918年流感大流行后的美国城市人口为样本，对人力资本冲击的预测影响进行了测试。在美国最大的几个城市中，流感大流行导致0.5%的居民死亡。我将流感发病率与疫情高峰期当地天气联系起来，发现流感死亡率高的城市人口水平和增长率一直很低，据估计，流感发病率每增加10%，2010年人口就会减少13%。

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Elasticities and tax incidence in urban ridesharing markets: Evidence from Chicago 城市拼车市场的弹性和税收：来自芝加哥的证据

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103809

Matthew Tarduno

Over the past decade, many U.S. cities have imposed taxes on Uber and Lyft, leading to debate over the impacts and incidence of these policies. This paper answers three questions about these taxes: (i) How do ridesharing taxes impact trip prices and quantities? (ii) What are the implied market supply and demand elasticities, and (iii) Who bears the burden of ridesharing taxes? Using data from Chicago, I show that ridesharing demand is inelastic in both gross terms, and relative to supply. Accordingly, 89% of the city’s ridesharing tax is passed through to passengers. From a distributional standpoint, travel survey data suggest that ridesharing taxes are roughly as progressive as the federal income tax schedule. Finally, back-of-the-envelope calculations informed by these results suggest that ridesharing taxes of the size typically seen in the U.S. are unlikely to generate meaningful improvements in congestion or air pollution.

在过去的十年里，许多美国城市都对优步和Lyft征税，引发了对这些政策的影响和发生率的争论。本文回答了关于这些税的三个问题：(1)拼车税如何影响出行价格和数量？（ii）隐含的市场供给和需求弹性是什么？（iii）谁来承担拼车税的负担？我利用芝加哥的数据表明，无论从总量上还是相对于供给而言，拼车需求都是非弹性的。相应地，该市89%的拼车税转嫁给了乘客。从分配的角度来看，旅游调查数据表明，拼车税的累进程度与联邦所得税计划大致相当。最后，根据这些结果进行的粗略计算表明，美国典型的拼车税规模不太可能对拥堵或空气污染产生有意义的改善。

引用次数: 0

Migration crisis in the local news: Evidence from the French–Italian border 当地新闻中的移民危机：来自法意边境的证据

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103808

Silvia Peracchi

This paper examines how undocumented migrant displacements affect local news markets and the political economy of EU internal borders. I focus on a policy that took place in June 2015, in which French authorities introduced militarized controls at their borders with Italy, to return waves of irregular border-crossing migrants transiting from Italy to Italian lands. Natives’ exposure to resettled migrants varied across Italian municipalities, depending on their proximity to push-back areas. I exploit this quasi-experimental setting in a diff-in-diff framework and compile novel text and count data from local news in Liguria, Italy. Results show that migration coverage declined with distance from the border after the push-backs. In contrast, anti-immigrant discourse intensified away from the events and weakened at the border. Exploring further this framing dimension, I observe readers’ demand to be closely associated with local news discourse and voting preferences to broadly follow anti-immigrant slant in the news.

本文考察了无证移民流离失所如何影响当地新闻市场和欧盟内部边界的政治经济。我关注的是2015年6月实施的一项政策，法国当局在其与意大利的边境实施了军事化控制，以阻止从意大利过境到意大利境内的非法越境移民浪潮。意大利各城市的当地人对重新安置的移民的接触程度各不相同，这取决于他们离遣返地区的距离。我利用这种类似实验的设置，在一个diff-in-diff框架下，从意大利利古里亚的当地新闻中编译新颖的文本和统计数据。结果表明，迁移覆盖率随着距离边境的距离而下降。相比之下，反移民言论在远离事件的地方愈演愈烈，在边境地区则有所减弱。进一步探索这个框架维度，我观察到读者对与当地新闻话语和投票偏好密切相关的需求，以广泛追随新闻中的反移民倾向。

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JUE Insight: Measuring local consumption with payment cards and cell phone pings JUE Insight：通过支付卡和手机ping来衡量本地消费

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103798

Ben Klopack, Fernando Luco

We compare two widely used sources of consumption data: payment card transactions (from credit and debit cards) and cell phone location pings. We find they are positively but imperfectly correlated; payment card usage is higher among higher-income consumers, while cell phone pings only loosely track consumer spending. We develop a methodology that combines both sources to measure local retail spending and show that it closely tracks more aggregated government data. We illustrate its use by quantifying local fiscal multipliers. We show that the impacts of government spending shocks are highly localized, decay spatially, and are heterogeneous across store categories.

我们比较了两种广泛使用的消费数据来源：支付卡交易（来自信用卡和借记卡）和手机定位ping。我们发现它们呈正相关但不完全相关；高收入消费者的支付卡使用率更高，而手机ping只能粗略地追踪消费者的支出。我们开发了一种方法，结合这两种来源来衡量当地零售支出，并表明它密切跟踪更综合的政府数据。我们通过量化地方财政乘数来说明它的使用。我们表明，政府支出冲击的影响是高度局部化的，在空间上是衰减的，并且在不同的商店类别中是异质的。

引用次数: 0

JUE insight: Political geography and the spatial allocation of economic activity: Evidence from China’s anti-corruption campaign 政治地理与经济活动的空间分配：来自中国反腐运动的证据

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103797

Filipe Campante , Rui Du , Weizeng Sun , Jianghao Wang , Siqi Zheng

We show evidence of how political geography directly shapes real economic outcomes by studying the spatial impact on Beijing’s restaurant sector of China’s 2012 anti-corruption campaign, which placed strict limits on lavish spending by public officials. Restaurants located closer to government offices experienced a relative decline in consumer demand. The post-campaign distribution of establishments was less spatially concentrated around government offices and had a smaller presence of high-end restaurants than before the campaign. Our results underscore the role of political geography as a potent, spatially concentrated driver of demand and its influence on the configuration of economic activities.

我们通过研究2012年中国反腐运动对北京餐饮业的空间影响，展示了政治地理如何直接影响实际经济结果的证据，该运动严格限制了公职人员的奢侈消费。离政府办公地点较近的餐馆的消费需求相对下降。与竞选前相比，竞选后的场所分布不再集中在政府办公室周围，高端餐厅的数量也有所减少。我们的研究结果强调了政治地理作为一种强大的、空间上集中的需求驱动因素的作用及其对经济活动配置的影响。

引用次数: 0

JUE insight: Do ride-sharing services cause urban air pollution? 爵见：网约车会造成城市空气污染吗？

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103799

Yi Liu , Yao Li , Jindong Pang

This paper investigates the impact of ride-sharing services on urban air pollution across 284 cities in China. While the theoretical implications of ride-sharing services on air quality remain ambiguous, empirical analysis of a daily panel dataset reveals that the introduction of ride-sharing services in a city significantly reduces urban air pollution levels. On average, cities experience at least a three percent decrease in air pollution following the launch of these services. Mechanism analysis indicates that ride-sharing services contribute to reduced peak-hour traffic congestion, a decline in new car registrations, and an increase in public transit ridership. These findings quantify the environmental benefits associated with ride-sharing services and provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to regulate the ride-sharing industry and enhance urban air quality.

本文研究了拼车服务对中国284个城市空气污染的影响。虽然拼车服务对空气质量的理论含义仍然模糊，但对每日面板数据集的实证分析表明，在城市中引入拼车服务显着降低了城市空气污染水平。平均而言，在这些服务推出后，城市的空气污染至少减少了3%。机制分析表明，拼车服务有助于减少高峰时段的交通拥堵，减少新车注册量，增加公共交通客流量。这些发现量化了与拼车服务相关的环境效益，并为寻求规范拼车行业和改善城市空气质量的政策制定者提供了有价值的见解。

引用次数: 0

Export slowdown and increasing land supply: Local government’s responses to export shocks in China 出口放缓与土地供应增加：中国地方政府对出口冲击的应对

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103796

Qiuyi Wang , Jing Wu , Shuping Wu

Using the shift-share (Bartik) instrumental variable to solve the endogeneity problem, this study shows a robust negative effect of export shocks on residential land supply in China during 2008–2022. We attribute this effect to a novel revenue-based fiscal-consolidation measure: Chinese city governments intentionally increase urban-land-supply revenues to hedge against declining tax revenues caused by the export slowdown. The additional land-supply profits can offset approximately 94 % of the tax-revenue losses. This effect is achieved as city governments expand land supply while maintaining stable land prices to generate additional land revenue. However, we find this land-based fiscal-consolidation measure bears unintended costs: it has led to excessive urban expansion, amplified the risk of the housing market, and increased commuting costs. A one-percentage-point drop in export growth correlates with a yearly increase of 124 million USD in commuting costs caused by the land oversupply in China. Further, this measure is becoming less sustainable as its preconditions (abundant developable land and robust demand) become increasingly difficult to meet.

利用shift-share （Bartik）工具变量解决内生性问题，本研究表明，2008-2022年期间，出口冲击对中国住宅用地供应产生了强劲的负面影响。我们将这种效应归因于一种新的基于收入的财政整顿措施：中国城市政府有意增加城市土地供应收入，以对冲出口放缓导致的税收下降。额外的土地供应利润可以抵消大约94%的税收损失。这种效果是通过城市政府扩大土地供应，同时保持稳定的土地价格以产生额外的土地收入来实现的。然而，我们发现这种以土地为基础的财政整顿措施带来了意想不到的成本：它导致了城市过度扩张，放大了房地产市场的风险，增加了通勤成本。出口增速每下降1个百分点，中国每年因土地供过于求造成的通勤成本就会增加1.24亿美元。此外，随着其先决条件（充足的可开发土地和强劲的需求）越来越难以满足，这一措施正变得越来越不可持续。

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引用次数: 0

JUE Insights: Who bears climate-related physical risk? JUE Insights：谁在承担与气候相关的身体风险？

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103791

David Wylie , Natee Amornsiripanitch , John Heilbron , Kevin Zhao

This paper combines data on residential property-level physical risk from major climate-related perils (severe convective storm, inland flood, hurricane storm surge, hurricane wind, winter storm, and wildfire) with data on local economic characteristics to establish three facts about the severity of and five facts about the demographic distribution of this class of risk in the contiguous United States. On the severity of climate-related physical risk, we find (i) severe convective storms are the leading contributor to expected damage, (ii) inland flood and hurricane-related perils drive aggregate tail risk, and (iii) the difference in risk level between the safest and the riskiest places is expected to grow by 2050. On the demographic distribution of risk, we find (i) the safest areas have the most expensive homes, (ii) levels of economic well-being are lower in risky areas, (iii) there is little relationship between local racial composition and risk level, (iv) rural areas face the highest risks, and (v) there is no evidence of lower aggregate development activity or in-migration in risky areas. These facts are an important foundation for climate risk-mitigation policymaking and academic research on how the U.S. population view and respond to this class of risk.

本文将主要气候相关灾害（强对流风暴、内陆洪水、飓风风暴潮、飓风、冬季风暴和野火）的住宅财产级物理风险数据与当地经济特征数据相结合，建立了美国相邻地区这类风险的严重性的三个事实和人口分布的五个事实。在与气候相关的物理风险的严重程度上，我们发现(i)强对流风暴是造成预期损失的主要因素，（ii）内陆洪水和飓风相关的风险驱动了总体尾部风险，（iii）到2050年，最安全地区和最危险地区之间的风险水平差异预计将扩大。关于风险的人口分布，我们发现(i)最安全的地区拥有最昂贵的房屋，（ii）风险地区的经济福利水平较低，（iii）当地种族构成与风险水平之间几乎没有关系，（iv）农村地区面临最高的风险，(v)没有证据表明风险地区的总体发展活动或迁入率较低。这些事实是气候风险缓解政策制定的重要基础，也是美国民众如何看待和应对这类风险的学术研究的重要基础。

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Journal of Urban Economics

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