Journal of Urban Economics最新文献

英文中文

Long-term effects of weather-induced migration on urban labor and housing markets 气候导致的人口迁移对城市劳动力和住房市场的长期影响

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103739

Matias Busso, Juan Pablo Chauvin

This paper explores the effects of weather-induced rural–urban migration on labor and housing market outcomes of urban residents in Brazil. In order to identify causal effects, it uses weather shocks to the rural municipalities of origin of migrants. We show that larger migration shocks led to an increase in employment growth and a reduction in wage growth of 4 and 5 percent, respectively. The increased migration flows also affected the housing market in destination cities. On average, it led to 4 percent faster growth of the housing stock, accompanied by 6 percent faster growth in housing rents. These effects vary sharply by housing quality. We find a substantial positive effect on the growth rates of the most penurious housing units (with no effect on rents) and a negative effect on the growth of housing units in the next quality tier (with a positive effect on rents). This suggests that rural immigration growth slowed down housing-quality upgrading in destination cities.

本文探讨了天气因素对巴西城市居民劳动力和住房市场结果的影响。为了确定因果关系，它使用了对移民来源地农村城市的天气冲击。我们表明，更大的移民冲击导致就业增长增加，工资增长减少，分别为4%和5%。移民流动的增加也影响了目的地城市的房地产市场。平均而言，它导致住房存量增长加快4%，住房租金增长加快6%。这些影响因住房质量而异。我们发现，对最贫困住房单元的增长率有实质性的积极影响（对租金没有影响），对下一个质量层的住房单元的增长有负面影响（对租金有积极影响）。这表明，农村移民的增长减缓了目的地城市住房质量的升级。

引用次数: 0

The effect of macroprudential policies on homeownership: Evidence from Switzerland 宏观审慎政策对住房所有权的影响：来自瑞士的证据

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103749

Elio Bolliger , Adrian Bruhin , Andreas Fuster , Maja Ganarin

This paper studies how the introduction of macroprudential policies in the Swiss residential mortgage market affected the propensity of households to become homeowners. We exploit a unique administrative data set of individual tax records containing detailed financial and socio-demographic information. We show that the mean share of renter households transitioning into homeownership decreased from 3.4% per year in the five years prior to the introduction of macroprudential policies to 3.0% per year in the five years afterward. This decrease is more pronounced for young and middle-aged households with relatively low income and wealth, suggesting that it is at least partly due to a tightening in borrowing constraints. Moreover, intergenerational transfers in the form of predeath bequests have become more important for homebuying both at the extensive and intensive margin.

本文研究了瑞士住房抵押贷款市场宏观审慎政策的引入如何影响家庭成为房主的倾向。我们利用独特的管理数据集的个人税务记录，其中包含详细的财务和社会人口信息。我们发现，在宏观审慎政策出台前的5年里，租房家庭转为自有住房的平均比例从每年3.4%下降到5年后的每年3.0%。这种下降在收入和财富相对较低的中青年家庭中更为明显，这表明至少部分原因是借贷限制收紧。此外，以死前遗赠形式进行的代际转移，无论是在广泛的还是密集的边际上，对购房都变得更加重要。

引用次数: 0

Roads, internal migration and the spatial sorting of U.S. high-skill workers 道路、国内移民和美国高技能工人的空间分类

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103735

Florin Cucu

This article studies the effects of a major transport infrastructure project, the construction of the U.S. Interstate Highway System (IHS), on the location choices and welfare of high-skill and low-skill workers. In its first part, the article provides reduced-form evidence that the IHS altered the skill composition of metropolitan areas. Event study and instrumental variable regressions show that better-connected cities experienced higher growth in their adult population and share of college-educated residents. Additional results highlight the role played by lower travel times, inter-state migration, and agglomeration economies. The second part of the article rationalizes these patterns using a quantitative spatial model with costly trade, heterogeneous migration costs, and agglomeration economies. Counterfactual experiments show that increasing travel times to their pre-IHS values would lower the expected utility of high-skill workers by an average of 6.1% and that of low-skill workers by 6.4%. These effects exhibit significant variation across cities and, within cities, across skill groups. The findings in this article highlight how transport infrastructure shapes the distribution of skills and the spatial patterns of welfare inequality.

本文研究了美国州际公路系统（IHS）建设这一重大交通基础设施项目对高技能工人和低技能工人的区位选择和福利的影响。在第一部分中，本文提供了简化形式的证据，证明IHS改变了大都市地区的技能构成。事件研究和工具变量回归表明，连通程度越高的城市，其成年人口和受过大学教育的居民比例增长越快。其他结果强调了较短的旅行时间、州际迁移和集聚经济所起的作用。文章的第二部分利用一个包含贸易成本、异质性迁移成本和集聚经济的定量空间模型对这些模式进行了合理化分析。反事实实验表明，将出行时间增加到ihs之前的值会使高技能工人的预期效用平均降低6.1%，使低技能工人的预期效用平均降低6.4%。这些影响在不同城市之间、城市内部、不同技能群体之间表现出显著差异。本文的研究结果强调了交通基础设施如何塑造技能分布和福利不平等的空间格局。

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Long-distance water infrastructure, rural development and urban growth: Evidence from China 远距离供水基础设施、农村发展和城市增长：来自中国的证据

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103736

Xiaomeng Cui , Wangyang Lai , Tao Lin

Water is unevenly distributed across regions, yet the effectiveness of long-distance water transfer in addressing this issue remains understudied. This paper employs a difference-in-difference design to examine the impact of the world’s largest water transfer project on water resources, rural development, and urban growth. We find that the project enhances water supply and agricultural production in water-receiving areas, while it leads to agricultural declines in water-sourcing areas. Such diverging patterns contribute to various consequences on labor market and rural welfare, thereby generating further differential impacts on nearby urban growth. The water-receiving areas witness urban expansion and economic activities thrive in the rural-urban fringe, but in the water-sourcing areas, economic activities decline outside the core urban areas. Further analysis reveals significant heterogeneity between the two water-transfer routes, distinguished by their engineering designs.

水资源在区域间分布不均，但长距离调水在解决这一问题上的有效性仍未得到充分研究。本文采用“差中之差”设计来考察世界上最大的调水工程对水资源、农村发展和城市增长的影响。研究发现，该工程促进了受水区的供水和农业生产，同时导致了水源地的农业衰退。这种分化模式对劳动力市场和农村福利产生了不同的影响，从而对附近的城市增长产生了进一步的差异影响。受水区城市扩张，经济活动在城乡结合部蓬勃发展，但在水源地，核心城区以外的经济活动下降。进一步的分析揭示了两条输水路线之间的显著异质性，这是由它们的工程设计来区分的。

引用次数: 0

Reducing the burden of mental illness on the criminal justice system: Evidence from light-touch outreach 减轻刑事司法系统的精神疾病负担：来自轻触式外展的证据

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103734

Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans, David C. Phillips

One quarter of people in jail have a serious mental illness (SMI); we study a county in a multi-state area that screens all inmates to identify those with one. Immediately after jail exit, county staff attempt to contact and connect these individuals to a mental healthcare provider, making successful connections in one in four cases. As outreach began on a specific date and residents of neighboring counties are ineligible for outreach, we compare residents and non-residents exiting the same jail over time in a difference-in-differences design. When the program begins, 180-day recidivism rates fall by 12 percentage points more for eligible residents than for would-be-eligible non-residents. Measured effects at one year are consistent with a persistent impact over time. We also find suggestive evidence that recidivism effects are larger for people without a history of mental healthcare.

四分之一的在押人员患有严重精神疾病（SMI）；我们研究了一个多州地区的一个县，该县对所有囚犯进行筛查，以识别其中一个。出狱后，县里的工作人员立即试图联系这些人，并将他们与精神保健提供者联系起来，在四分之一的案例中成功建立了联系。由于外展活动在特定日期开始，邻近县的居民没有资格参加外展活动，我们采用差异中差异的设计，比较了同一监狱的居民和非居民随时间的变化。项目开始后，符合条件的居民180天内的再犯率比符合条件的非居民下降了12个百分点。一年的测量效果与一段时间的持续影响是一致的。我们还发现，没有精神病史的人再犯的影响更大。

引用次数: 0

Slow traffic, fast food: The effects of time lost on food store choice 缓慢的交通，快餐：时间损失对食品商店选择的影响

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103737

Panka Bencsik , Lester Lusher , Rebecca L.C. Taylor

Time scarcity is one of the strongest correlates of fast food consumption. To estimate the causal effect of time lost on food choice, we match daily store-specific foot traffic data traced via smartphones to plausibly exogenous shocks in highway traffic congestion in Los Angeles County. We find that on days when highways are more congested, individuals are more likely to frequent fast food restaurants and less likely to grocery shop. In our main model, a one standard deviation increase in traffic delay leads to a 1% increase in fast food visits, equivalent to 1.2 million more fast food visits in Los Angeles County per year. The effects are particularly pronounced for afternoon rush hour traffic. Our results imply a net reduction in healthy food store choice due to time lost.

时间短缺是与快餐消费密切相关的因素之一。为了估计时间损失对食物选择的因果影响，我们将通过智能手机追踪到的每日特定商店的人流量数据与洛杉矶县高速公路交通拥堵中看似合理的外生冲击相匹配。我们发现，在高速公路更拥堵的日子里，人们更有可能经常去快餐店，而不太可能去杂货店。在我们的主要模型中，交通延误每增加一个标准差，就会导致快餐店访问量增加1%，相当于洛杉矶县每年增加120万次快餐店访问量。这种影响对下午高峰时段的交通尤其明显。我们的研究结果表明，由于时间损失，健康食品商店的选择净减少。

引用次数: 0

The effect of low-skilled immigration on local productivity and amenities: Learning from the South Korean experience 低技能移民对当地生产力和便利设施的影响：从韩国的经验中学习

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103738

Hyejin Kim , Jongkwan Lee , Giovanni Peri

In this study, we evaluate the economic effects of a significant increase in low-skilled immigration in Korean Municipalities. Using a change in immigration policy in 2004 and the pre-existing immigrant networks we estimate the effects of low-skilled immigration on local wages, net native migration, and housing prices. We interpret the findings using a canonical representative agent spatial equilibrium model as in Glaeser and Gottlieb (2009) to infer the equilibrium effects of immigration on local productivity and amenities. An increase of immigrants equal to 1 percent of the local population generated a 1% increase in local productivity and a 1.6% decrease in local amenities. We also find a net migration response of zero among natives deriving from an inflow of those who moved for work-related and an outflow of those who moved for amenity-related reasons. Finally, we find a direct negative effect of the immigration shock on measures of local amenities.

在本研究中，我们评估了韩国城市低技术移民显著增加的经济影响。利用2004年移民政策的变化和先前存在的移民网络，我们估计了低技能移民对当地工资、净本地移民和房价的影响。我们使用Glaeser和Gottlieb（2009）的典型代表性代理空间均衡模型来解释这些发现，以推断移民对当地生产力和便利设施的均衡效应。每增加相当于当地人口1%的移民，当地生产力就会提高1%，而当地的便利设施则会下降1.6%。我们还发现，本地人的净移民响应为零，这是由于工作相关移民的流入和与舒适相关的移民的流出。最后，我们发现移民冲击对当地便利设施的衡量有直接的负面影响。

引用次数: 0

Mortgage innovation and house price booms 抵押贷款创新和房价暴涨

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103725

Claes Bäckman , Chandler Lutz

We study how mortgage innovation can cause a housing boom even within a robust regulatory framework and strictly enforced recourse borrowing. Specifically, we find that the 2003 introduction of interest-only (IO) mortgages in Denmark ignited a housing boom that increased house prices 36 percent. In line with IO loans lowering debt-service payments and relaxing payment-to-income constraints, results show higher IO loan uptake and house price growth in areas with greater ex-ante benefits of such mortgages. Overall, our results are relevant for the many countries where IO loans play a sizable role in mortgage finance.

我们研究了即使在健全的监管框架和严格执行追索权借款的情况下，抵押贷款创新如何导致房地产繁荣。具体来说，我们发现2003年丹麦引入的只付息（IO）抵押贷款点燃了房地产热潮，使房价上涨了36%。与IO贷款降低偿债支付和放松支付收入限制相一致，结果显示，在此类抵押贷款的事前收益更高的地区，IO贷款的吸收和房价增长更高。总的来说，我们的研究结果适用于IO贷款在抵押贷款融资中发挥相当大作用的许多国家。

引用次数: 0

Politically connected cities: Italy 1951–1991 政治联系紧密的城市：1951-1991年的意大利

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103733

Guglielmo Barone , Guido de Blasio , Elena Gentili

This paper documents the higher growth experienced by politically connected municipalities in Italy between the end of World War II and the fall of the Berlin Wall. It leverages the peculiarities of the institutional setting and compares population growth in connected and unconnected municipalities with similar characteristics at the beginning of the period. Our results indicate a population premium of 7.4% over 40 years. Connected municipalities benefited from the location of state-owned enterprises, more infrastructures and higher public spending. Political connections favored industrialization, higher employment and wages, but crowded out private entrepreneurship. Local communities repaid these benefits through voting. There is no evidence of higher agglomeration economies in politically connected cities, suggesting that political connections have not been output-enhancing from a nationwide perspective. The difference in population growth rates fades away after the end of the connections.

本文记录了二战结束至柏林墙倒塌期间，意大利政治上有联系的城市所经历的更高增长。它利用了制度设置的特殊性，并比较了具有相似特征的连接和未连接城市在本时期初期的人口增长情况。我们的结果表明，40年的人口溢价为7.4%。国有企业的选址、更多的基础设施和更高的公共支出，都使连通的城市受益。政治关系有利于工业化、更高的就业率和工资，但却排挤了私营企业。当地社区通过投票来回报这些好处。没有证据表明政治关联城市具有更高的集聚经济，这表明从全国范围来看，政治关联并没有提高产出。这种联系结束后，人口增长率的差异就会消失。

引用次数: 0

Building tall, falling short: An empirical assessment of Chinese skyscrapers 高，低：对中国摩天大楼的实证评估

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103731

Ziyang Chen , Ting Chen , Yatang Lin , Jin Wang

This article examines the determinants and economic efficiency of state-led urbanization, increasingly the mantra of developing countries, focusing on China’s skyscraper development as a prominent example. Employing a political economy lens, we find that local governments subsidized skyscraper development through discounted land prices to encourage the development of new urban agglomerations, particularly in cities where local leaders are motivated by stronger career incentives and during the central government’s monetary easing policy period. But 5 to 10 years after completion, subsidized skyscrapers yield few spatial spillovers in land price premium, new business formation, or endogenous urban amenities, compared to unsubsidized ones. The lack of spillovers is caused by poor location, less reliable developers, and inadequate infrastructure. One important policy implication is that without careful consideration of local factors and related externalities, state interventions in urban development may fail to realize the fruits of public investment.

这篇文章探讨了国家主导的城市化的决定因素和经济效率，这越来越成为发展中国家的口头禅，重点关注中国摩天大楼的发展作为一个突出的例子。运用政治经济学的视角，我们发现地方政府通过打折地价补贴摩天大楼的开发，以鼓励新城市群的发展，特别是在地方领导人受到更强的职业激励和中央政府货币宽松政策时期的城市。但在建成5至10年后，与没有补贴的摩天大楼相比，有补贴的摩天大楼在地价溢价、新商业形成或内生城市便利设施方面几乎没有产生空间溢出效应。缺乏溢出效应是由于地理位置不佳、开发商不可靠以及基础设施不足造成的。一个重要的政策含义是，如果不仔细考虑当地因素和相关的外部性，国家对城市发展的干预可能无法实现公共投资的成果。

引用次数: 0

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