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Slow traffic, fast food: The effects of time lost on food store choice 缓慢的交通,快餐:时间损失对食品商店选择的影响
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103737
Panka Bencsik , Lester Lusher , Rebecca L.C. Taylor
Time scarcity is one of the strongest correlates of fast food consumption. To estimate the causal effect of time lost on food choice, we match daily store-specific foot traffic data traced via smartphones to plausibly exogenous shocks in highway traffic congestion in Los Angeles County. We find that on days when highways are more congested, individuals are more likely to frequent fast food restaurants and less likely to grocery shop. In our main model, a one standard deviation increase in traffic delay leads to a 1% increase in fast food visits, equivalent to 1.2 million more fast food visits in Los Angeles County per year. The effects are particularly pronounced for afternoon rush hour traffic. Our results imply a net reduction in healthy food store choice due to time lost.
时间短缺是与快餐消费密切相关的因素之一。为了估计时间损失对食物选择的因果影响,我们将通过智能手机追踪到的每日特定商店的人流量数据与洛杉矶县高速公路交通拥堵中看似合理的外生冲击相匹配。我们发现,在高速公路更拥堵的日子里,人们更有可能经常去快餐店,而不太可能去杂货店。在我们的主要模型中,交通延误每增加一个标准差,就会导致快餐店访问量增加1%,相当于洛杉矶县每年增加120万次快餐店访问量。这种影响对下午高峰时段的交通尤其明显。我们的研究结果表明,由于时间损失,健康食品商店的选择净减少。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of low-skilled immigration on local productivity and amenities: Learning from the South Korean experience 低技能移民对当地生产力和便利设施的影响:从韩国的经验中学习
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103738
Hyejin Kim , Jongkwan Lee , Giovanni Peri
In this study, we evaluate the economic effects of a significant increase in low-skilled immigration in Korean Municipalities. Using a change in immigration policy in 2004 and the pre-existing immigrant networks we estimate the effects of low-skilled immigration on local wages, net native migration, and housing prices. We interpret the findings using a canonical representative agent spatial equilibrium model as in Glaeser and Gottlieb (2009) to infer the equilibrium effects of immigration on local productivity and amenities. An increase of immigrants equal to 1 percent of the local population generated a 1% increase in local productivity and a 1.6% decrease in local amenities. We also find a net migration response of zero among natives deriving from an inflow of those who moved for work-related and an outflow of those who moved for amenity-related reasons. Finally, we find a direct negative effect of the immigration shock on measures of local amenities.
在本研究中,我们评估了韩国城市低技术移民显著增加的经济影响。利用2004年移民政策的变化和先前存在的移民网络,我们估计了低技能移民对当地工资、净本地移民和房价的影响。我们使用Glaeser和Gottlieb(2009)的典型代表性代理空间均衡模型来解释这些发现,以推断移民对当地生产力和便利设施的均衡效应。每增加相当于当地人口1%的移民,当地生产力就会提高1%,而当地的便利设施则会下降1.6%。我们还发现,本地人的净移民响应为零,这是由于工作相关移民的流入和与舒适相关的移民的流出。最后,我们发现移民冲击对当地便利设施的衡量有直接的负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Roads, internal migration and the spatial sorting of U.S. high-skill workers 道路、国内移民和美国高技能工人的空间分类
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103735
Florin Cucu
This article studies the effects of a major transport infrastructure project, the construction of the U.S. Interstate Highway System (IHS), on the location choices and welfare of high-skill and low-skill workers. In its first part, the article provides reduced-form evidence that the IHS altered the skill composition of metropolitan areas. Event study and instrumental variable regressions show that better-connected cities experienced higher growth in their adult population and share of college-educated residents. Additional results highlight the role played by lower travel times, inter-state migration, and agglomeration economies. The second part of the article rationalizes these patterns using a quantitative spatial model with costly trade, heterogeneous migration costs, and agglomeration economies. Counterfactual experiments show that increasing travel times to their pre-IHS values would lower the expected utility of high-skill workers by an average of 6.1% and that of low-skill workers by 6.4%. These effects exhibit significant variation across cities and, within cities, across skill groups. The findings in this article highlight how transport infrastructure shapes the distribution of skills and the spatial patterns of welfare inequality.
本文研究了美国州际公路系统(IHS)建设这一重大交通基础设施项目对高技能工人和低技能工人的区位选择和福利的影响。在第一部分中,本文提供了简化形式的证据,证明IHS改变了大都市地区的技能构成。事件研究和工具变量回归表明,连通程度越高的城市,其成年人口和受过大学教育的居民比例增长越快。其他结果强调了较短的旅行时间、州际迁移和集聚经济所起的作用。文章的第二部分利用一个包含贸易成本、异质性迁移成本和集聚经济的定量空间模型对这些模式进行了合理化分析。反事实实验表明,将出行时间增加到ihs之前的值会使高技能工人的预期效用平均降低6.1%,使低技能工人的预期效用平均降低6.4%。这些影响在不同城市之间、城市内部、不同技能群体之间表现出显著差异。本文的研究结果强调了交通基础设施如何塑造技能分布和福利不平等的空间格局。
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引用次数: 0
Analyzing political preferences of second-generation immigrants across the rural–urban divide 分析跨越城乡鸿沟的第二代移民的政治偏好
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103740
Simone Moriconi , Giovanni Peri , Riccardo Turati
This paper analyzes the political preferences of immigrants’ offspring in relation to the rural–urban divide of political preferences in European countries. Using data on individual voting behavior and political preferences in 22 European countries between 2001 and 2017, we analyze whether second-generation immigrants have different preferences on a left–right political spectrum, relative to other natives. We show that they have a significant left-wing preference after controlling for a large set of individual characteristics and origin fixed effects. In spite of their concentration in urban areas, where native residents are also more left-leaning than the average, this difference is not a result of their location, as the difference is particularly strong in non-urban areas. Second-generation immigrants are also more likely to be politically active, to participate in demonstrations or petitions and to exhibit stronger preferences for inequality-reducing government intervention, internationalism and multiculturalism. Growing up with an immigrant father experiencing challenges in his labor market integration seems to be the stronger predictor of the left-wing preference of second-generation.
本文分析了移民后代的政治偏好与欧洲国家城乡政治偏好差异的关系。利用2001年至2017年间22个欧洲国家的个人投票行为和政治偏好数据,我们分析了相对于其他本地人,第二代移民在左右政治光谱上是否有不同的偏好。我们发现,在控制了大量的个体特征和起源固定效应后,他们有显著的左翼偏好。尽管他们集中在城市地区,当地居民也比平均水平更左倾,但这种差异并不是他们所处位置的结果,因为这种差异在非城市地区尤为明显。第二代移民也更有可能在政治上活跃,参加示威或请愿活动,并对减少不平等的政府干预、国际主义和多元文化主义表现出更强的偏好。与一个移民父亲一起成长,在融入劳动力市场方面遇到挑战,似乎更能预测第二代人的左翼偏好。
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引用次数: 0
JUE insight: Efficiency of bus priority infrastructure 识识:公交优先基础设施的效率
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103751
Felipe González , Hugo E. Silva
We use bus GPS data across 500 routes to estimate the impact of priority infrastructure on buses’ speed and ridership in Chile. Almost 100 million bus trips allow us to leverage within-route variation in the proportion of the route in which buses travel along bus lanes or Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) corridors. Corridors increase bus speeds by 20% at peak hours. Bus lanes, often seen as an equally effective but cheaper alternative to a BRT corridor, are, on average, ineffective. However, bus lanes achieve the same travel time savings as BRT corridors only when fully isolated from private vehicles, coupled with monitoring cameras and enforcement.
我们使用500条路线的公交车GPS数据来估计优先基础设施对智利公交车速度和乘客的影响。近1亿次公交出行使我们能够利用路线内的变化,即沿公交车道或快速公交(BRT)走廊行驶的公交线路的比例。在高峰时段,走廊可使巴士速度提高20%。公交专用道通常被视为与BRT走廊同样有效但更便宜的替代方案,但平均而言是无效的。然而,只有在与私家车完全隔离,再加上监控摄像头和执法的情况下,公交车道才能像BRT走廊一样节省出行时间。
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引用次数: 0
Politically connected cities: Italy 1951–1991 政治联系紧密的城市:1951-1991年的意大利
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103733
Guglielmo Barone , Guido de Blasio , Elena Gentili
This paper documents the higher growth experienced by politically connected municipalities in Italy between the end of World War II and the fall of the Berlin Wall. It leverages the peculiarities of the institutional setting and compares population growth in connected and unconnected municipalities with similar characteristics at the beginning of the period. Our results indicate a population premium of 7.4% over 40 years. Connected municipalities benefited from the location of state-owned enterprises, more infrastructures and higher public spending. Political connections favored industrialization, higher employment and wages, but crowded out private entrepreneurship. Local communities repaid these benefits through voting. There is no evidence of higher agglomeration economies in politically connected cities, suggesting that political connections have not been output-enhancing from a nationwide perspective. The difference in population growth rates fades away after the end of the connections.
本文记录了二战结束至柏林墙倒塌期间,意大利政治上有联系的城市所经历的更高增长。它利用了制度设置的特殊性,并比较了具有相似特征的连接和未连接城市在本时期初期的人口增长情况。我们的结果表明,40年的人口溢价为7.4%。国有企业的选址、更多的基础设施和更高的公共支出,都使连通的城市受益。政治关系有利于工业化、更高的就业率和工资,但却排挤了私营企业。当地社区通过投票来回报这些好处。没有证据表明政治关联城市具有更高的集聚经济,这表明从全国范围来看,政治关联并没有提高产出。这种联系结束后,人口增长率的差异就会消失。
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引用次数: 0
Mortgage innovation and house price booms 抵押贷款创新和房价暴涨
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103725
Claes Bäckman , Chandler Lutz
We study how mortgage innovation can cause a housing boom even within a robust regulatory framework and strictly enforced recourse borrowing. Specifically, we find that the 2003 introduction of interest-only (IO) mortgages in Denmark ignited a housing boom that increased house prices 36 percent. In line with IO loans lowering debt-service payments and relaxing payment-to-income constraints, results show higher IO loan uptake and house price growth in areas with greater ex-ante benefits of such mortgages. Overall, our results are relevant for the many countries where IO loans play a sizable role in mortgage finance.
我们研究了即使在健全的监管框架和严格执行追索权借款的情况下,抵押贷款创新如何导致房地产繁荣。具体来说,我们发现2003年丹麦引入的只付息(IO)抵押贷款点燃了房地产热潮,使房价上涨了36%。与IO贷款降低偿债支付和放松支付收入限制相一致,结果显示,在此类抵押贷款的事前收益更高的地区,IO贷款的吸收和房价增长更高。总的来说,我们的研究结果适用于IO贷款在抵押贷款融资中发挥相当大作用的许多国家。
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引用次数: 0
Who bears the burden of real estate transfer taxes? Evidence from the German housing market 谁承担了房地产转让税的负担?来自德国住房市场的证据
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103717
Mathias Dolls , Clemens Fuest , Carla Krolage , Florian Neumeier
This paper examines the effects of real estate transfer taxes (RETT) on property prices using a rich micro dataset of roughly 17 million German properties for the period from 2005 to 2019. Our empirical analysis exploits variation in RETT rate hikes across German states and over time. Our monthly event study estimates indicate a price response that strongly exceeds the change in the tax burden for single transactions. Twelve months after a reform, a one percentage point increase in the tax rate reduces property prices by on average 3%. Price effects are larger for apartments (−4%) than for single-family houses (−2%). Exploring potential mechanisms, we provide evidence that different holding periods are the main driver of the differential price effect between property types.
本文利用 2005 年至 2019 年期间德国约 1700 万套房产的丰富微观数据集,研究了房地产转让税(RETT)对房地产价格的影响。我们的实证分析利用了德国各州房地产转让税税率随时间的变化。我们的月度事件研究估计结果表明,单笔交易的价格反应大大超过了税负的变化。改革 12 个月后,税率提高一个百分点,房产价格平均下降 3%。对公寓价格的影响(-4%)大于对独栋住宅的影响(-2%)。在探索潜在机制的过程中,我们发现不同的持有期是造成不同物业类型之间价格效应差异的主要原因。
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引用次数: 0
The economic cost of locking down like China: Evidence from city-to-city truck flows 像中国那样封锁的经济成本:来自城市间卡车流量的证据
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103729
Jingjing Chen , Wei Chen , Ernest Liu , Jie Luo , Zheng Song
Containing the COVID-19 pandemic by non-pharmacological interventions is costly. Using high-frequency, city-to-city truck flow data, this paper estimates the economic cost of lockdown in China, a stringent yet effective policy prior to the Omicron surge. By comparing the truck flow change in the cities with and without lockdown, we find that a one-month full-scale lockdown causally reduces the truck flows connected to the locked down city in the month by 54%, implying a decline of the city’s real income with the same proportion in a gravity model of city-to-city trade. We also structurally estimate the cost of lockdown in the gravity model, where the effects of lockdown can spill over to other cities through trade linkages. Imposing full-scale lockdown on the four largest cities in China (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen) for one month would reduce the real national GDP by 8.7%, of which 8.5% is contributed by the spillover effects.
通过非药物干预措施遏制COVID-19大流行的代价高昂。本文使用高频率的城市间卡车流量数据,估计了中国封锁的经济成本,这是一项严格但有效的政策,在欧米克隆激增之前。通过比较封锁前后城市的卡车流量变化,我们发现,一个月的全面封锁导致当月与封锁城市相连的卡车流量减少54%,这意味着在城市间贸易的重力模型中,该城市的实际收入以相同的比例下降。我们还在重力模型中结构性地估计了封锁的成本,其中封锁的影响可能通过贸易联系溢出到其他城市。对中国四大城市(北京、上海、广州、深圳)实施为期一个月的全面封锁,实际国民生产总值(GDP)将减少8.7%,其中8.5%是外溢效应。
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引用次数: 0
Building tall, falling short: An empirical assessment of Chinese skyscrapers 高,低:对中国摩天大楼的实证评估
IF 5.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103731
Ziyang Chen , Ting Chen , Yatang Lin , Jin Wang
This article examines the determinants and economic efficiency of state-led urbanization, increasingly the mantra of developing countries, focusing on China’s skyscraper development as a prominent example. Employing a political economy lens, we find that local governments subsidized skyscraper development through discounted land prices to encourage the development of new urban agglomerations, particularly in cities where local leaders are motivated by stronger career incentives and during the central government’s monetary easing policy period. But 5 to 10 years after completion, subsidized skyscrapers yield few spatial spillovers in land price premium, new business formation, or endogenous urban amenities, compared to unsubsidized ones. The lack of spillovers is caused by poor location, less reliable developers, and inadequate infrastructure. One important policy implication is that without careful consideration of local factors and related externalities, state interventions in urban development may fail to realize the fruits of public investment.
这篇文章探讨了国家主导的城市化的决定因素和经济效率,这越来越成为发展中国家的口头禅,重点关注中国摩天大楼的发展作为一个突出的例子。运用政治经济学的视角,我们发现地方政府通过打折地价补贴摩天大楼的开发,以鼓励新城市群的发展,特别是在地方领导人受到更强的职业激励和中央政府货币宽松政策时期的城市。但在建成5至10年后,与没有补贴的摩天大楼相比,有补贴的摩天大楼在地价溢价、新商业形成或内生城市便利设施方面几乎没有产生空间溢出效应。缺乏溢出效应是由于地理位置不佳、开发商不可靠以及基础设施不足造成的。一个重要的政策含义是,如果不仔细考虑当地因素和相关的外部性,国家对城市发展的干预可能无法实现公共投资的成果。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Urban Economics
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