Journal of Urban Economics最新文献

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Reducing the burden of mental illness on the criminal justice system: Evidence from light-touch outreach 减轻刑事司法系统的精神疾病负担：来自轻触式外展的证据

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103734

Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans, David C. Phillips

One quarter of people in jail have a serious mental illness (SMI); we study a county in a multi-state area that screens all inmates to identify those with one. Immediately after jail exit, county staff attempt to contact and connect these individuals to a mental healthcare provider, making successful connections in one in four cases. As outreach began on a specific date and residents of neighboring counties are ineligible for outreach, we compare residents and non-residents exiting the same jail over time in a difference-in-differences design. When the program begins, 180-day recidivism rates fall by 12 percentage points more for eligible residents than for would-be-eligible non-residents. Measured effects at one year are consistent with a persistent impact over time. We also find suggestive evidence that recidivism effects are larger for people without a history of mental healthcare.

四分之一的在押人员患有严重精神疾病（SMI）；我们研究了一个多州地区的一个县，该县对所有囚犯进行筛查，以识别其中一个。出狱后，县里的工作人员立即试图联系这些人，并将他们与精神保健提供者联系起来，在四分之一的案例中成功建立了联系。由于外展活动在特定日期开始，邻近县的居民没有资格参加外展活动，我们采用差异中差异的设计，比较了同一监狱的居民和非居民随时间的变化。项目开始后，符合条件的居民180天内的再犯率比符合条件的非居民下降了12个百分点。一年的测量效果与一段时间的持续影响是一致的。我们还发现，没有精神病史的人再犯的影响更大。

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Slow traffic, fast food: The effects of time lost on food store choice 缓慢的交通，快餐：时间损失对食品商店选择的影响

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103737

Panka Bencsik , Lester Lusher , Rebecca L.C. Taylor

Time scarcity is one of the strongest correlates of fast food consumption. To estimate the causal effect of time lost on food choice, we match daily store-specific foot traffic data traced via smartphones to plausibly exogenous shocks in highway traffic congestion in Los Angeles County. We find that on days when highways are more congested, individuals are more likely to frequent fast food restaurants and less likely to grocery shop. In our main model, a one standard deviation increase in traffic delay leads to a 1% increase in fast food visits, equivalent to 1.2 million more fast food visits in Los Angeles County per year. The effects are particularly pronounced for afternoon rush hour traffic. Our results imply a net reduction in healthy food store choice due to time lost.

时间短缺是与快餐消费密切相关的因素之一。为了估计时间损失对食物选择的因果影响，我们将通过智能手机追踪到的每日特定商店的人流量数据与洛杉矶县高速公路交通拥堵中看似合理的外生冲击相匹配。我们发现，在高速公路更拥堵的日子里，人们更有可能经常去快餐店，而不太可能去杂货店。在我们的主要模型中，交通延误每增加一个标准差，就会导致快餐店访问量增加1%，相当于洛杉矶县每年增加120万次快餐店访问量。这种影响对下午高峰时段的交通尤其明显。我们的研究结果表明，由于时间损失，健康食品商店的选择净减少。

引用次数: 0

The effect of low-skilled immigration on local productivity and amenities: Learning from the South Korean experience 低技能移民对当地生产力和便利设施的影响：从韩国的经验中学习

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103738

Hyejin Kim , Jongkwan Lee , Giovanni Peri

In this study, we evaluate the economic effects of a significant increase in low-skilled immigration in Korean Municipalities. Using a change in immigration policy in 2004 and the pre-existing immigrant networks we estimate the effects of low-skilled immigration on local wages, net native migration, and housing prices. We interpret the findings using a canonical representative agent spatial equilibrium model as in Glaeser and Gottlieb (2009) to infer the equilibrium effects of immigration on local productivity and amenities. An increase of immigrants equal to 1 percent of the local population generated a 1% increase in local productivity and a 1.6% decrease in local amenities. We also find a net migration response of zero among natives deriving from an inflow of those who moved for work-related and an outflow of those who moved for amenity-related reasons. Finally, we find a direct negative effect of the immigration shock on measures of local amenities.

在本研究中，我们评估了韩国城市低技术移民显著增加的经济影响。利用2004年移民政策的变化和先前存在的移民网络，我们估计了低技能移民对当地工资、净本地移民和房价的影响。我们使用Glaeser和Gottlieb（2009）的典型代表性代理空间均衡模型来解释这些发现，以推断移民对当地生产力和便利设施的均衡效应。每增加相当于当地人口1%的移民，当地生产力就会提高1%，而当地的便利设施则会下降1.6%。我们还发现，本地人的净移民响应为零，这是由于工作相关移民的流入和与舒适相关的移民的流出。最后，我们发现移民冲击对当地便利设施的衡量有直接的负面影响。

引用次数: 0

Mortgage innovation and house price booms 抵押贷款创新和房价暴涨

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103725

Claes Bäckman , Chandler Lutz

We study how mortgage innovation can cause a housing boom even within a robust regulatory framework and strictly enforced recourse borrowing. Specifically, we find that the 2003 introduction of interest-only (IO) mortgages in Denmark ignited a housing boom that increased house prices 36 percent. In line with IO loans lowering debt-service payments and relaxing payment-to-income constraints, results show higher IO loan uptake and house price growth in areas with greater ex-ante benefits of such mortgages. Overall, our results are relevant for the many countries where IO loans play a sizable role in mortgage finance.

我们研究了即使在健全的监管框架和严格执行追索权借款的情况下，抵押贷款创新如何导致房地产繁荣。具体来说，我们发现2003年丹麦引入的只付息（IO）抵押贷款点燃了房地产热潮，使房价上涨了36%。与IO贷款降低偿债支付和放松支付收入限制相一致，结果显示，在此类抵押贷款的事前收益更高的地区，IO贷款的吸收和房价增长更高。总的来说，我们的研究结果适用于IO贷款在抵押贷款融资中发挥相当大作用的许多国家。

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Politically connected cities: Italy 1951–1991 政治联系紧密的城市：1951-1991年的意大利

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103733

Guglielmo Barone , Guido de Blasio , Elena Gentili

This paper documents the higher growth experienced by politically connected municipalities in Italy between the end of World War II and the fall of the Berlin Wall. It leverages the peculiarities of the institutional setting and compares population growth in connected and unconnected municipalities with similar characteristics at the beginning of the period. Our results indicate a population premium of 7.4% over 40 years. Connected municipalities benefited from the location of state-owned enterprises, more infrastructures and higher public spending. Political connections favored industrialization, higher employment and wages, but crowded out private entrepreneurship. Local communities repaid these benefits through voting. There is no evidence of higher agglomeration economies in politically connected cities, suggesting that political connections have not been output-enhancing from a nationwide perspective. The difference in population growth rates fades away after the end of the connections.

本文记录了二战结束至柏林墙倒塌期间，意大利政治上有联系的城市所经历的更高增长。它利用了制度设置的特殊性，并比较了具有相似特征的连接和未连接城市在本时期初期的人口增长情况。我们的结果表明，40年的人口溢价为7.4%。国有企业的选址、更多的基础设施和更高的公共支出，都使连通的城市受益。政治关系有利于工业化、更高的就业率和工资，但却排挤了私营企业。当地社区通过投票来回报这些好处。没有证据表明政治关联城市具有更高的集聚经济，这表明从全国范围来看，政治关联并没有提高产出。这种联系结束后，人口增长率的差异就会消失。

引用次数: 0

Building tall, falling short: An empirical assessment of Chinese skyscrapers 高，低：对中国摩天大楼的实证评估

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103731

Ziyang Chen , Ting Chen , Yatang Lin , Jin Wang

This article examines the determinants and economic efficiency of state-led urbanization, increasingly the mantra of developing countries, focusing on China’s skyscraper development as a prominent example. Employing a political economy lens, we find that local governments subsidized skyscraper development through discounted land prices to encourage the development of new urban agglomerations, particularly in cities where local leaders are motivated by stronger career incentives and during the central government’s monetary easing policy period. But 5 to 10 years after completion, subsidized skyscrapers yield few spatial spillovers in land price premium, new business formation, or endogenous urban amenities, compared to unsubsidized ones. The lack of spillovers is caused by poor location, less reliable developers, and inadequate infrastructure. One important policy implication is that without careful consideration of local factors and related externalities, state interventions in urban development may fail to realize the fruits of public investment.

这篇文章探讨了国家主导的城市化的决定因素和经济效率，这越来越成为发展中国家的口头禅，重点关注中国摩天大楼的发展作为一个突出的例子。运用政治经济学的视角，我们发现地方政府通过打折地价补贴摩天大楼的开发，以鼓励新城市群的发展，特别是在地方领导人受到更强的职业激励和中央政府货币宽松政策时期的城市。但在建成5至10年后，与没有补贴的摩天大楼相比，有补贴的摩天大楼在地价溢价、新商业形成或内生城市便利设施方面几乎没有产生空间溢出效应。缺乏溢出效应是由于地理位置不佳、开发商不可靠以及基础设施不足造成的。一个重要的政策含义是，如果不仔细考虑当地因素和相关的外部性，国家对城市发展的干预可能无法实现公共投资的成果。

引用次数: 0

Connective financing: Chinese infrastructure projects and the diffusion of economic activity in developing countries 关联融资：中国基础设施项目与发展中国家经济活动的扩散

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103730

Richard Bluhm , Axel Dreher , Andreas Fuchs , Bradley C. Parks , Austin M. Strange , Michael J. Tierney

This paper studies the causal effect of transport infrastructure on the spatial distribution of economic activity within subnational regions across a large number of developing countries. To do so, we introduce a new global dataset of geolocated Chinese grant- and loan-financed development projects from 2000 to 2014 and combine it with measures of spatial concentration based on remotely sensed data. We find that Chinese-financed transportation projects decentralize economic activity within regions, as measured by a spatial Gini coefficient, by 2.2 percentage points. The treatment effects are particularly strong in regions that are less developed, more urbanized, and located closer to cities.

本文研究了交通基础设施对大量发展中国家次国家级区域内经济活动空间分布的因果效应。为此，我们引入了一个新的全球数据集，其中包含2000年至2014年中国赠款和贷款资助的地理定位发展项目，并将其与基于遥感数据的空间集中度测量相结合。我们发现，以空间基尼系数衡量，中国资助的交通项目使区域内的经济活动分散了2.2个百分点。在欠发达、城市化程度较高、靠近城市的地区，这种治疗效果尤其明显。

引用次数: 0

Taxes and telework: The impacts of state income taxes in a work-from-home economy 税收和远程办公：州所得税对在家工作经济的影响

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103732

David R. Agrawal, Jan K. Brueckner

This paper studies the interstate effects of decentralized taxation and spending when work-from-home allows fully remote work from another state. In this setting, a state’s population and employment levels are decoupled, making the impact of state tax differentials radically different from when individuals must live and work in the same state. The impacts depend on whether income is taxed at the location of the employer (source) or employee (residence). Our main findings show that a shift from a non-WFH economy to a work-from-home (WFH) economy reduces employment and raises the wage in the high-tax state, with larger effects under source taxation. The logic is that wages are lower in the high-tax state in the absence of WFH, and with interstate wage equality required when residences and workplaces are decoupled, WFH causes a loss of employment and an increase in the wage in that state. Once WFH is established, a tax increase in the high-tax state either reduces employment further while raising the wage (source taxation) or leaves the labor market unaffected (residence taxation). We also show that the non-WFH equilibrium and the source-tax equilibrium under WFH are inefficient, while the residence-tax WFH equilibrium is efficient.

本文研究了当在家工作允许从另一个州完全远程工作时，分散税收和支出的州际效应。在这种情况下，一个州的人口和就业水平是脱钩的，这使得各州税收差异的影响与个人必须在同一个州生活和工作的影响截然不同。影响取决于收入是在雇主（来源）还是雇员（居住地）征税。我们的主要研究结果表明，在高税收州，从非在家工作经济向在家工作经济的转变减少了就业，提高了工资，在源税下的影响更大。其逻辑是，在没有WFH的高税收州，工资水平较低，而当住宅和工作场所脱钩时，州际工资平等是必要的，WFH会导致该州的就业损失和工资上涨。一旦建立了WFH，高税收州的增税要么在提高工资的同时进一步减少就业（来源税），要么不影响劳动力市场（居住税）。研究还表明，在收入收入收入下，非收入收入收入均衡和源税均衡是低效的，而居住税收入均衡是高效的。

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引用次数: 0

The economic cost of locking down like China: Evidence from city-to-city truck flows 像中国那样封锁的经济成本：来自城市间卡车流量的证据

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103729

Jingjing Chen , Wei Chen , Ernest Liu , Jie Luo , Zheng Song

Containing the COVID-19 pandemic by non-pharmacological interventions is costly. Using high-frequency, city-to-city truck flow data, this paper estimates the economic cost of lockdown in China, a stringent yet effective policy prior to the Omicron surge. By comparing the truck flow change in the cities with and without lockdown, we find that a one-month full-scale lockdown causally reduces the truck flows connected to the locked down city in the month by 54%, implying a decline of the city’s real income with the same proportion in a gravity model of city-to-city trade. We also structurally estimate the cost of lockdown in the gravity model, where the effects of lockdown can spill over to other cities through trade linkages. Imposing full-scale lockdown on the four largest cities in China (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen) for one month would reduce the real national GDP by 8.7%, of which 8.5% is contributed by the spillover effects.

通过非药物干预措施遏制COVID-19大流行的代价高昂。本文使用高频率的城市间卡车流量数据，估计了中国封锁的经济成本，这是一项严格但有效的政策，在欧米克隆激增之前。通过比较封锁前后城市的卡车流量变化，我们发现，一个月的全面封锁导致当月与封锁城市相连的卡车流量减少54%，这意味着在城市间贸易的重力模型中，该城市的实际收入以相同的比例下降。我们还在重力模型中结构性地估计了封锁的成本，其中封锁的影响可能通过贸易联系溢出到其他城市。对中国四大城市（北京、上海、广州、深圳）实施为期一个月的全面封锁，实际国民生产总值（GDP）将减少8.7%，其中8.5%是外溢效应。

引用次数: 0

Who bears the burden of real estate transfer taxes? Evidence from the German housing market 谁承担了房地产转让税的负担？来自德国住房市场的证据

IF 5.7 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Urban Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103717

Mathias Dolls , Clemens Fuest , Carla Krolage , Florian Neumeier

This paper examines the effects of real estate transfer taxes (RETT) on property prices using a rich micro dataset of roughly 17 million German properties for the period from 2005 to 2019. Our empirical analysis exploits variation in RETT rate hikes across German states and over time. Our monthly event study estimates indicate a price response that strongly exceeds the change in the tax burden for single transactions. Twelve months after a reform, a one percentage point increase in the tax rate reduces property prices by on average 3%. Price effects are larger for apartments (−4%) than for single-family houses (−2%). Exploring potential mechanisms, we provide evidence that different holding periods are the main driver of the differential price effect between property types.

本文利用 2005 年至 2019 年期间德国约 1700 万套房产的丰富微观数据集，研究了房地产转让税（RETT）对房地产价格的影响。我们的实证分析利用了德国各州房地产转让税税率随时间的变化。我们的月度事件研究估计结果表明，单笔交易的价格反应大大超过了税负的变化。改革 12 个月后，税率提高一个百分点，房产价格平均下降 3%。对公寓价格的影响（-4%）大于对独栋住宅的影响（-2%）。在探索潜在机制的过程中，我们发现不同的持有期是造成不同物业类型之间价格效应差异的主要原因。

引用次数: 0

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