Pub Date : 2025-08-25DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103799
Yi Liu , Yao Li , Jindong Pang
This paper investigates the impact of ride-sharing services on urban air pollution across 284 cities in China. While the theoretical implications of ride-sharing services on air quality remain ambiguous, empirical analysis of a daily panel dataset reveals that the introduction of ride-sharing services in a city significantly reduces urban air pollution levels. On average, cities experience at least a three percent decrease in air pollution following the launch of these services. Mechanism analysis indicates that ride-sharing services contribute to reduced peak-hour traffic congestion, a decline in new car registrations, and an increase in public transit ridership. These findings quantify the environmental benefits associated with ride-sharing services and provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to regulate the ride-sharing industry and enhance urban air quality.
{"title":"JUE insight: Do ride-sharing services cause urban air pollution?","authors":"Yi Liu , Yao Li , Jindong Pang","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103799","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103799","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of ride-sharing services on urban air pollution across 284 cities in China. While the theoretical implications of ride-sharing services on air quality remain ambiguous, empirical analysis of a daily panel dataset reveals that the introduction of ride-sharing services in a city significantly reduces urban air pollution levels. On average, cities experience at least a three percent decrease in air pollution following the launch of these services. Mechanism analysis indicates that ride-sharing services contribute to reduced peak-hour traffic congestion, a decline in new car registrations, and an increase in public transit ridership. These findings quantify the environmental benefits associated with ride-sharing services and provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to regulate the ride-sharing industry and enhance urban air quality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103799"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144893400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-18DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103796
Qiuyi Wang , Jing Wu , Shuping Wu
Using the shift-share (Bartik) instrumental variable to solve the endogeneity problem, this study shows a robust negative effect of export shocks on residential land supply in China during 2008–2022. We attribute this effect to a novel revenue-based fiscal-consolidation measure: Chinese city governments intentionally increase urban-land-supply revenues to hedge against declining tax revenues caused by the export slowdown. The additional land-supply profits can offset approximately 94 % of the tax-revenue losses. This effect is achieved as city governments expand land supply while maintaining stable land prices to generate additional land revenue. However, we find this land-based fiscal-consolidation measure bears unintended costs: it has led to excessive urban expansion, amplified the risk of the housing market, and increased commuting costs. A one-percentage-point drop in export growth correlates with a yearly increase of 124 million USD in commuting costs caused by the land oversupply in China. Further, this measure is becoming less sustainable as its preconditions (abundant developable land and robust demand) become increasingly difficult to meet.
{"title":"Export slowdown and increasing land supply: Local government’s responses to export shocks in China","authors":"Qiuyi Wang , Jing Wu , Shuping Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103796","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103796","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the shift-share (Bartik) instrumental variable to solve the endogeneity problem, this study shows a robust negative effect of export shocks on residential land supply in China during 2008–2022. We attribute this effect to a novel revenue-based fiscal-consolidation measure: Chinese city governments intentionally increase urban-land-supply revenues to hedge against declining tax revenues caused by the export slowdown. The additional land-supply profits can offset approximately 94 % of the tax-revenue losses. This effect is achieved as city governments expand land supply while maintaining stable land prices to generate additional land revenue. However, we find this land-based fiscal-consolidation measure bears unintended costs: it has led to excessive urban expansion, amplified the risk of the housing market, and increased commuting costs. A one-percentage-point drop in export growth correlates with a yearly increase of 124 million USD in commuting costs caused by the land oversupply in China. Further, this measure is becoming less sustainable as its preconditions (abundant developable land and robust demand) become increasingly difficult to meet.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103796"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144861345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-15DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103791
David Wylie , Natee Amornsiripanitch , John Heilbron , Kevin Zhao
This paper combines data on residential property-level physical risk from major climate-related perils (severe convective storm, inland flood, hurricane storm surge, hurricane wind, winter storm, and wildfire) with data on local economic characteristics to establish three facts about the severity of and five facts about the demographic distribution of this class of risk in the contiguous United States. On the severity of climate-related physical risk, we find (i) severe convective storms are the leading contributor to expected damage, (ii) inland flood and hurricane-related perils drive aggregate tail risk, and (iii) the difference in risk level between the safest and the riskiest places is expected to grow by 2050. On the demographic distribution of risk, we find (i) the safest areas have the most expensive homes, (ii) levels of economic well-being are lower in risky areas, (iii) there is little relationship between local racial composition and risk level, (iv) rural areas face the highest risks, and (v) there is no evidence of lower aggregate development activity or in-migration in risky areas. These facts are an important foundation for climate risk-mitigation policymaking and academic research on how the U.S. population view and respond to this class of risk.
{"title":"JUE Insights: Who bears climate-related physical risk?","authors":"David Wylie , Natee Amornsiripanitch , John Heilbron , Kevin Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103791","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103791","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper combines data on residential property-level physical risk from major climate-related perils (severe convective storm, inland flood, hurricane storm surge, hurricane wind, winter storm, and wildfire) with data on local economic characteristics to establish three facts about the severity of and five facts about the demographic distribution of this class of risk in the contiguous United States. On the severity of climate-related physical risk, we find (i) severe convective storms are the leading contributor to expected damage, (ii) inland flood and hurricane-related perils drive aggregate tail risk, and (iii) the difference in risk level between the safest and the riskiest places is expected to grow by 2050. On the demographic distribution of risk, we find (i) the safest areas have the most expensive homes, (ii) levels of economic well-being are lower in risky areas, (iii) there is little relationship between local racial composition and risk level, (iv) rural areas face the highest risks, and (v) there is no evidence of lower aggregate development activity or in-migration in risky areas. These facts are an important foundation for climate risk-mitigation policymaking and academic research on how the U.S. population view and respond to this class of risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103791"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144841130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-06DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103784
Jaehee Song
I construct a new nationwide dataset to measure the stringency of residential zoning in the United States and examine its effects on housing production, prices, and demographic sorting. First, I develop and implement a structural break detection algorithm to infer minimum lot size regulations. The dataset spans over 16,000 local jurisdictions within Core-Based Statistical Areas, capturing both cross-jurisdictional and within-jurisdictional variation in zoning stringency. I find that 18.5 percent of single-family home constructions bunch at the minimum lot size threshold, suggesting that these zoning requirements are binding for a substantial share of single-family development. Second, I estimate the effects of these regulations on housing market outcomes, exploiting variation across nearby zoning districts within municipal border regions. The results show that minimum lot size regulations increase home sizes, sales prices, and rents. Moreover, restrictive zoning disproportionately attracts high-income white homeowners, reinforcing patterns of residential segregation.
{"title":"The effects of residential zoning in U.S. housing markets","authors":"Jaehee Song","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103784","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103784","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I construct a new nationwide dataset to measure the stringency of residential zoning in the United States and examine its effects on housing production, prices, and demographic sorting. First, I develop and implement a structural break detection algorithm to infer minimum lot size regulations. The dataset spans over 16,000 local jurisdictions within Core-Based Statistical Areas, capturing both cross-jurisdictional and within-jurisdictional variation in zoning stringency. I find that 18.5 percent of single-family home constructions bunch at the minimum lot size threshold, suggesting that these zoning requirements are binding for a substantial share of single-family development. Second, I estimate the effects of these regulations on housing market outcomes, exploiting variation across nearby zoning districts within municipal border regions. The results show that minimum lot size regulations increase home sizes, sales prices, and rents. Moreover, restrictive zoning disproportionately attracts high-income white homeowners, reinforcing patterns of residential segregation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103784"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144780610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-30DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103795
Antung A. Liu , Yucheng Wang , Lei Zhang
Investments in urban light rail are meant to replace driving and alleviate emissions from road transportation, but little research has documented the direct link between alternative subway policies and gasoline consumption, leaving it unclear which subway policies are more efficient. Based on a unique dataset from a major gasoline retailer in China, this paper compares the effect of expanding the subway network with that of revising the fare. We find that both subway expansion and the fare change significantly impact gasoline consumption in the short run, but the effect of expanding the subway network is larger and more durable. A cost–benefit calculation also finds that subway network expansion is more cost-effective in reducing driving than changing the fare.
{"title":"The effect of subway policies on gasoline consumption: Subway expansion versus fare changes","authors":"Antung A. Liu , Yucheng Wang , Lei Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103795","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103795","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Investments in urban light rail are meant to replace driving and alleviate emissions from road transportation, but little research has documented the direct link between alternative subway policies and gasoline consumption, leaving it unclear which subway policies are more efficient. Based on a unique dataset from a major gasoline retailer in China, this paper compares the effect of expanding the subway network with that of revising the fare. We find that both subway expansion and the fare change significantly impact gasoline consumption in the short run, but the effect of expanding the subway network is larger and more durable. A cost–benefit calculation also finds that subway network expansion is more cost-effective in reducing driving than changing the fare.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103795"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-30DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103790
Hanchen Jiang , Luis Quintero , Xi Yang
This paper proposes and tests the hypothesis that rent control increases tenant unemployment. Using microdata from New York City between 2002 and 2017, we find that rent stabilization increases tenants’ probability of unemployment by more than four percentage points, and the effect is especially pronounced among tenants with unearned income. To address endogeneity concerns, we employ an instrumental variable strategy that exploits the local relative availability of rent-stabilized units at the time of move-in as an exogenous source of variation. We propose a job-search model to explain the disincentive channel underlying our results. These findings highlight the potential unintended consequences of rent control.
{"title":"Does rent control increase tenant unemployment?","authors":"Hanchen Jiang , Luis Quintero , Xi Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103790","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103790","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes and tests the hypothesis that rent control increases tenant unemployment. Using microdata from New York City between 2002 and 2017, we find that rent stabilization increases tenants’ probability of unemployment by more than four percentage points, and the effect is especially pronounced among tenants with unearned income. To address endogeneity concerns, we employ an instrumental variable strategy that exploits the local relative availability of rent-stabilized units at the time of move-in as an exogenous source of variation. We propose a job-search model to explain the disincentive channel underlying our results. These findings highlight the potential unintended consequences of rent control.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103790"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-30DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103794
Rahul R. Gupta , Viviana Rodriguez
We study the impact of large firm entry on local public education by comparing school districts in counties that win a Million Dollar Plant (MDP) to runner-up counties. Winning an MDP increases school district revenues by approximately 3%, primarily through higher local property tax collections. While total per pupil revenue rises modestly, we find gains in instructional spending and small improvements in test scores. Effects vary by firm type: manufacturing MDPs are associated with greater capital outlays but limited achievement gains, whereas high-tech MDPs see increased instructional spending and improved proficiency. Districts with MDPs in highly educated industries exhibit larger increases in instructional spending and student outcomes, even when overall revenue gains are similar.
{"title":"Firms for funding: The effect of Million Dollar Plants on school finances and student achievement","authors":"Rahul R. Gupta , Viviana Rodriguez","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103794","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103794","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the impact of large firm entry on local public education by comparing school districts in counties that win a Million Dollar Plant (MDP) to runner-up counties. Winning an MDP increases school district revenues by approximately 3%, primarily through higher local property tax collections. While total per pupil revenue rises modestly, we find gains in instructional spending and small improvements in test scores. Effects vary by firm type: manufacturing MDPs are associated with greater capital outlays but limited achievement gains, whereas high-tech MDPs see increased instructional spending and improved proficiency. Districts with MDPs in highly educated industries exhibit larger increases in instructional spending and student outcomes, even when overall revenue gains are similar.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103794"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-16DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103793
Quanlin Gu , Jia He , Wenlan Qian , Yuan Ren
This paper studies the effect of housing wealth shocks on workplace shirking. We use the type and actual time stamps of credit card transactions to detect non-work-related behavior during work hours. After a one-percentage-point increase in house prices, employed homeowners experienced a fast and persistent increase by 3.8 % per month in their propensity to use work hours to attend to personal needs. The post-shock response is more pronounced among homeowners with a greater wealth increase, with poorer career potential, or for occupations with higher monitoring costs.
{"title":"Housing booms and shirking","authors":"Quanlin Gu , Jia He , Wenlan Qian , Yuan Ren","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103793","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103793","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the effect of housing wealth shocks on workplace shirking. We use the type and actual <em>time stamps</em> of credit card transactions to detect non-work-related behavior during work hours. After a one-percentage-point increase in house prices, employed homeowners experienced a fast and persistent increase by 3.8 % per month in their propensity to use work hours to attend to personal needs. The post-shock response is more pronounced among homeowners with a greater wealth increase, with poorer career potential, or for occupations with higher monitoring costs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103793"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144633545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-16DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103792
Melinda Fremerey , Andreas Lichter , Max Löffler
We investigate the consequences of a large-scale fiscal consolidation program for German municipalities. Identification relies on a difference-in-differences approach exploiting political discretion in the program’s assignment rule. We find that targeted jurisdictions improved their fiscal balance by EUR 190 per capita and year net of the program-induced grants. Local consolidation strategies differed significantly by population size, which we rationalize with agglomeration economies. Spending cuts and tax increases had little effect on the local economy. However, we detect declines in population levels and house prices as well as electoral backlash in smaller municipalities that disproportionally increased the property tax and cut spending on local public services.
{"title":"Strategies and consequences of local fiscal consolidation: Evidence from Germany","authors":"Melinda Fremerey , Andreas Lichter , Max Löffler","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103792","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103792","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the consequences of a large-scale fiscal consolidation program for German municipalities. Identification relies on a difference-in-differences approach exploiting political discretion in the program’s assignment rule. We find that targeted jurisdictions improved their fiscal balance by EUR<!--> <!-->190 per capita and year net of the program-induced grants. Local consolidation strategies differed significantly by population size, which we rationalize with agglomeration economies. Spending cuts and tax increases had little effect on the local economy. However, we detect declines in population levels and house prices as well as electoral backlash in smaller municipalities that disproportionally increased the property tax and cut spending on local public services.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103792"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144633546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-08DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103783
Kristian Behrens , Nathan Seegert
The growth of many cities and industries differs, with some growing slowly and others experiencing rapid change—i.e., rushes. To explain these differences and explore the mechanisms of growth, we develop a model centered on a new trade-off between time-varying fundamentals and time-invariant – but rank-dependent – opportunities. Early population flows depend on the opportunities new entities provide, whether from available land in cities or the accumulation of entrepreneurship human capital in firms. Our model can explain the existence of rushes and their size. We provide suggestive empirical evidence on city- and industry growth consistent with the model’s predictions.
{"title":"Rushing to opportunity: City growth and entrepreneurship","authors":"Kristian Behrens , Nathan Seegert","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103783","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103783","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The growth of many cities and industries differs, with some growing slowly and others experiencing rapid change—i.e., rushes. To explain these differences and explore the mechanisms of growth, we develop a model centered on a new trade-off between time-varying fundamentals and time-invariant – but rank-dependent – opportunities. Early population flows depend on the opportunities new entities provide, whether from available land in cities or the accumulation of entrepreneurship human capital in firms. Our model can explain the existence of rushes and their size. We provide suggestive empirical evidence on city- and industry growth consistent with the model’s predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103783"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144572419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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