Pub Date : 2025-07-16DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103793
Quanlin Gu , Jia He , Wenlan Qian , Yuan Ren
This paper studies the effect of housing wealth shocks on workplace shirking. We use the type and actual time stamps of credit card transactions to detect non-work-related behavior during work hours. After a one-percentage-point increase in house prices, employed homeowners experienced a fast and persistent increase by 3.8 % per month in their propensity to use work hours to attend to personal needs. The post-shock response is more pronounced among homeowners with a greater wealth increase, with poorer career potential, or for occupations with higher monitoring costs.
{"title":"Housing booms and shirking","authors":"Quanlin Gu , Jia He , Wenlan Qian , Yuan Ren","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103793","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103793","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the effect of housing wealth shocks on workplace shirking. We use the type and actual <em>time stamps</em> of credit card transactions to detect non-work-related behavior during work hours. After a one-percentage-point increase in house prices, employed homeowners experienced a fast and persistent increase by 3.8 % per month in their propensity to use work hours to attend to personal needs. The post-shock response is more pronounced among homeowners with a greater wealth increase, with poorer career potential, or for occupations with higher monitoring costs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103793"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144633545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-16DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103792
Melinda Fremerey , Andreas Lichter , Max Löffler
We investigate the consequences of a large-scale fiscal consolidation program for German municipalities. Identification relies on a difference-in-differences approach exploiting political discretion in the program’s assignment rule. We find that targeted jurisdictions improved their fiscal balance by EUR 190 per capita and year net of the program-induced grants. Local consolidation strategies differed significantly by population size, which we rationalize with agglomeration economies. Spending cuts and tax increases had little effect on the local economy. However, we detect declines in population levels and house prices as well as electoral backlash in smaller municipalities that disproportionally increased the property tax and cut spending on local public services.
{"title":"Strategies and consequences of local fiscal consolidation: Evidence from Germany","authors":"Melinda Fremerey , Andreas Lichter , Max Löffler","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103792","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103792","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the consequences of a large-scale fiscal consolidation program for German municipalities. Identification relies on a difference-in-differences approach exploiting political discretion in the program’s assignment rule. We find that targeted jurisdictions improved their fiscal balance by EUR<!--> <!-->190 per capita and year net of the program-induced grants. Local consolidation strategies differed significantly by population size, which we rationalize with agglomeration economies. Spending cuts and tax increases had little effect on the local economy. However, we detect declines in population levels and house prices as well as electoral backlash in smaller municipalities that disproportionally increased the property tax and cut spending on local public services.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103792"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144633546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-08DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103783
Kristian Behrens , Nathan Seegert
The growth of many cities and industries differs, with some growing slowly and others experiencing rapid change—i.e., rushes. To explain these differences and explore the mechanisms of growth, we develop a model centered on a new trade-off between time-varying fundamentals and time-invariant – but rank-dependent – opportunities. Early population flows depend on the opportunities new entities provide, whether from available land in cities or the accumulation of entrepreneurship human capital in firms. Our model can explain the existence of rushes and their size. We provide suggestive empirical evidence on city- and industry growth consistent with the model’s predictions.
{"title":"Rushing to opportunity: City growth and entrepreneurship","authors":"Kristian Behrens , Nathan Seegert","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103783","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103783","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The growth of many cities and industries differs, with some growing slowly and others experiencing rapid change—i.e., rushes. To explain these differences and explore the mechanisms of growth, we develop a model centered on a new trade-off between time-varying fundamentals and time-invariant – but rank-dependent – opportunities. Early population flows depend on the opportunities new entities provide, whether from available land in cities or the accumulation of entrepreneurship human capital in firms. Our model can explain the existence of rushes and their size. We provide suggestive empirical evidence on city- and industry growth consistent with the model’s predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103783"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144572419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103788
Shiyu Bo, Yi Wang
In this paper, we examine the labor market outcomes of jurisdictional consolidation, focusing on the effect of city–county mergers in China between 2011 and 2018 on the wages of migrant workers and local residents. Under the merger reform, city districts were consolidated with nearby counties, expanding the jurisdiction under the centralized control of the prefecture government. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we find that wages increased by 3.1% for migrant workers and 10.4% for local residents in consolidated jurisdictions. We attribute these effects to local economic growth and the resulting differentiated labor demand for migrant and local workers.
{"title":"The labor market outcomes of jurisdictional consolidation: Evidence from city–county mergers in China","authors":"Shiyu Bo, Yi Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103788","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103788","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we examine the labor market outcomes of jurisdictional consolidation, focusing on the effect of city–county mergers in China between 2011 and 2018 on the wages of migrant workers and local residents. Under the merger reform, city districts were consolidated with nearby counties, expanding the jurisdiction under the centralized control of the prefecture government. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we find that wages increased by 3.1% for migrant workers and 10.4% for local residents in consolidated jurisdictions. We attribute these effects to local economic growth and the resulting differentiated labor demand for migrant and local workers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103788"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-02DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103789
Mariaflavia Harari , Maisy Wong
We study the role of Dutch colonial institutions on urban development for the megacity of Jakarta, Indonesia. Using historical maps of Dutch settlements and a rich granular database, we implement a boundary discontinuity design comparing locations on either side of Dutch boundaries. We find that historical Dutch areas today have significantly lower parcel density, are more likely to have formally registered parcels, and have more regular parcel layout, pointing to the importance of planning and cadastral mapping. Dutch settlements are also more likely to appear formal, as per a photographic index that ranks the appearance of neighborhoods. We highlight the role of land market institutions over alternative channels, such as direct Dutch investments or natural advantage.
{"title":"Colonial legacy and land market formality","authors":"Mariaflavia Harari , Maisy Wong","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103789","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103789","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the role of Dutch colonial institutions on urban development for the megacity of Jakarta, Indonesia. Using historical maps of Dutch settlements and a rich granular database, we implement a boundary discontinuity design comparing locations on either side of Dutch boundaries. We find that historical Dutch areas today have significantly lower parcel density, are more likely to have formally registered parcels, and have more regular parcel layout, pointing to the importance of planning and cadastral mapping. Dutch settlements are also more likely to appear formal, as per a photographic index that ranks the appearance of neighborhoods. We highlight the role of land market institutions over alternative channels, such as direct Dutch investments or natural advantage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103789"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144523101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-02DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103785
Christian Gillitzer , Nalini Prasad
We study the effects on the housing market of two macroprudential policies in Australia restricting credit supply to residential housing investors. The first policy placed a bank-level cap on mortgage credit growth to investors. The second policy placed a bank-level cap on interest-only lending, which is predominantly used by investors. Both policies caused a large and sharp reduction in new investor lending relative to new owner-occupier lending. Using unit-record data on property sales and listings, we show that the restrictions on investor lending reduced the share of properties purchased by investors and reduced the relative price of properties in investor segments of the market. Our results demonstrate the potential efficacy of macroprudential policy restricting credit supply to investors.
{"title":"The effects of macroprudential policy restricting housing investor credit supply","authors":"Christian Gillitzer , Nalini Prasad","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103785","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103785","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the effects on the housing market of two macroprudential policies in Australia restricting credit supply to residential housing investors. The first policy placed a bank-level cap on mortgage credit growth to investors. The second policy placed a bank-level cap on interest-only lending, which is predominantly used by investors. Both policies caused a large and sharp reduction in new investor lending relative to new owner-occupier lending. Using unit-record data on property sales and listings, we show that the restrictions on investor lending reduced the share of properties purchased by investors and reduced the relative price of properties in investor segments of the market. Our results demonstrate the potential efficacy of macroprudential policy restricting credit supply to investors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103785"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144523100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-02DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103781
Jordan Rappaport , McKenzie Humann
Metropolitan areas are a fundamental unit of economic analysis. Broadly defined, they are unions of built-up locations near each other among which people travel between places of residence, employment, and consumption. Despite the importance of metropolitan areas, metropolitan Core-Based Statistical Areas and other official U.S. delineations considerably stray from this broad definition. We develop a simple algorithm to better match it, using commuting flows among U.S. census tracts in 2000. Three judgmental parameters govern the threshold strength of commuting ties between locations to include them in the same metropolitan area, the maximum separating distance between locations, and the threshold density of outlying settlement. A parameterization that balances encompassing commuting flows and excluding sparsely settled land delineates 361 Kernel-Based Metropolitan Areas (KBMAs), in aggregate capturing almost all the population and employment of metropolitan CBSAs in a small fraction of their land area. We benchmark KBMAs against two alternative parameterizations, one that prioritizes encompassing commuting flows and one that prioritizes excluding less built-up and less near locations.
{"title":"A better delineation of U.S. metropolitan areas","authors":"Jordan Rappaport , McKenzie Humann","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103781","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103781","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Metropolitan areas are a fundamental unit of economic analysis. Broadly defined, they are unions of built-up locations near each other among which people travel between places of residence, employment, and consumption. Despite the importance of metropolitan areas, metropolitan Core-Based Statistical Areas and other official U.S. delineations considerably stray from this broad definition. We develop a simple algorithm to better match it, using commuting flows among U.S. census tracts in 2000. Three judgmental parameters govern the threshold strength of commuting ties between locations to include them in the same metropolitan area, the maximum separating distance between locations, and the threshold density of outlying settlement. A parameterization that balances encompassing commuting flows and excluding sparsely settled land delineates 361 Kernel-Based Metropolitan Areas (KBMAs), in aggregate capturing almost all the population and employment of metropolitan CBSAs in a small fraction of their land area. We benchmark KBMAs against two alternative parameterizations, one that prioritizes encompassing commuting flows and one that prioritizes excluding less built-up and less near locations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103781"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144535418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103787
Nelly Exbrayat, Victor Stephane
We study the impact of urbanization driven by internal migration on crime in South Africa. We create a new dataset that combines yearly data on crime and urban population density at the municipality level from 2011 to 2018. We exploit exogenous variations in rural–urban migration induced by climate shocks at origin for identification. We show that higher urban population density leads to a reduction in pecuniary crime rate but has no effect on non-pecuniary crime rate. This negative effect operates through changes in population composition and a social network effect.
{"title":"Does urbanization cause crime? Evidence from rural–urban migration in South Africa","authors":"Nelly Exbrayat, Victor Stephane","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103787","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103787","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the impact of urbanization driven by internal migration on crime in South Africa. We create a new dataset that combines yearly data on crime and urban population density at the municipality level from 2011 to 2018. We exploit exogenous variations in rural–urban migration induced by climate shocks at origin for identification. We show that higher urban population density leads to a reduction in pecuniary crime rate but has no effect on non-pecuniary crime rate. This negative effect operates through changes in population composition and a social network effect.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103787"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144517633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-29DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103786
Margaret Bock , Alexander Cardazzi , Brad R. Humphreys
Road maintenance constitutes a significant component of transportation spending at all levels of government. Formulation of an efficient transportation infrastructure policy requires information about factors affecting road and traffic conditions. We generate the first causal evidence that decreasing pavement quality increases vehicle crash rates and decreases average speed. Results from parallel segment and instrumental variable models using spatially and temporally disaggregated data from Federal-Aid Highway System (FAHS) roads in California show statistically and economically significant increases in vehicle crash rates and decreases in average vehicle speed caused by road damage. These results produce a range of effect sizes that exceed those using standard road quality data. The results imply significant increases in social costs attributable to road damage.
{"title":"Where the rubber meets the road: Pavement damage reduces traffic safety and speed","authors":"Margaret Bock , Alexander Cardazzi , Brad R. Humphreys","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103786","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103786","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Road maintenance constitutes a significant component of transportation spending at all levels of government. Formulation of an efficient transportation infrastructure policy requires information about factors affecting road and traffic conditions. We generate the first causal evidence that decreasing pavement quality increases vehicle crash rates and decreases average speed. Results from parallel segment and instrumental variable models using spatially and temporally disaggregated data from Federal-Aid Highway System (FAHS) roads in California show statistically and economically significant increases in vehicle crash rates and decreases in average vehicle speed caused by road damage. These results produce a range of effect sizes that exceed those using standard road quality data. The results imply significant increases in social costs attributable to road damage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103786"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144510759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-02DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103782
Sumit Agarwal , Weida Kuang , Long Wang , Yang Yang
{"title":"Corrigendum to “The role of agents in fraudulent activities: Evidence from the housing market in Beijing” [Journal of Urban Economics, Volume 142, July 2024, 103668]","authors":"Sumit Agarwal , Weida Kuang , Long Wang , Yang Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103782","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103782","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103782"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144298565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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