Pub Date : 2025-07-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103788
Shiyu Bo, Yi Wang
In this paper, we examine the labor market outcomes of jurisdictional consolidation, focusing on the effect of city–county mergers in China between 2011 and 2018 on the wages of migrant workers and local residents. Under the merger reform, city districts were consolidated with nearby counties, expanding the jurisdiction under the centralized control of the prefecture government. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we find that wages increased by 3.1% for migrant workers and 10.4% for local residents in consolidated jurisdictions. We attribute these effects to local economic growth and the resulting differentiated labor demand for migrant and local workers.
{"title":"The labor market outcomes of jurisdictional consolidation: Evidence from city–county mergers in China","authors":"Shiyu Bo, Yi Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103788","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103788","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we examine the labor market outcomes of jurisdictional consolidation, focusing on the effect of city–county mergers in China between 2011 and 2018 on the wages of migrant workers and local residents. Under the merger reform, city districts were consolidated with nearby counties, expanding the jurisdiction under the centralized control of the prefecture government. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we find that wages increased by 3.1% for migrant workers and 10.4% for local residents in consolidated jurisdictions. We attribute these effects to local economic growth and the resulting differentiated labor demand for migrant and local workers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103788"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-02DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103789
Mariaflavia Harari , Maisy Wong
We study the role of Dutch colonial institutions on urban development for the megacity of Jakarta, Indonesia. Using historical maps of Dutch settlements and a rich granular database, we implement a boundary discontinuity design comparing locations on either side of Dutch boundaries. We find that historical Dutch areas today have significantly lower parcel density, are more likely to have formally registered parcels, and have more regular parcel layout, pointing to the importance of planning and cadastral mapping. Dutch settlements are also more likely to appear formal, as per a photographic index that ranks the appearance of neighborhoods. We highlight the role of land market institutions over alternative channels, such as direct Dutch investments or natural advantage.
{"title":"Colonial legacy and land market formality","authors":"Mariaflavia Harari , Maisy Wong","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103789","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103789","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the role of Dutch colonial institutions on urban development for the megacity of Jakarta, Indonesia. Using historical maps of Dutch settlements and a rich granular database, we implement a boundary discontinuity design comparing locations on either side of Dutch boundaries. We find that historical Dutch areas today have significantly lower parcel density, are more likely to have formally registered parcels, and have more regular parcel layout, pointing to the importance of planning and cadastral mapping. Dutch settlements are also more likely to appear formal, as per a photographic index that ranks the appearance of neighborhoods. We highlight the role of land market institutions over alternative channels, such as direct Dutch investments or natural advantage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103789"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144523101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-02DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103785
Christian Gillitzer , Nalini Prasad
We study the effects on the housing market of two macroprudential policies in Australia restricting credit supply to residential housing investors. The first policy placed a bank-level cap on mortgage credit growth to investors. The second policy placed a bank-level cap on interest-only lending, which is predominantly used by investors. Both policies caused a large and sharp reduction in new investor lending relative to new owner-occupier lending. Using unit-record data on property sales and listings, we show that the restrictions on investor lending reduced the share of properties purchased by investors and reduced the relative price of properties in investor segments of the market. Our results demonstrate the potential efficacy of macroprudential policy restricting credit supply to investors.
{"title":"The effects of macroprudential policy restricting housing investor credit supply","authors":"Christian Gillitzer , Nalini Prasad","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103785","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103785","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the effects on the housing market of two macroprudential policies in Australia restricting credit supply to residential housing investors. The first policy placed a bank-level cap on mortgage credit growth to investors. The second policy placed a bank-level cap on interest-only lending, which is predominantly used by investors. Both policies caused a large and sharp reduction in new investor lending relative to new owner-occupier lending. Using unit-record data on property sales and listings, we show that the restrictions on investor lending reduced the share of properties purchased by investors and reduced the relative price of properties in investor segments of the market. Our results demonstrate the potential efficacy of macroprudential policy restricting credit supply to investors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103785"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144523100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-02DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103781
Jordan Rappaport , McKenzie Humann
Metropolitan areas are a fundamental unit of economic analysis. Broadly defined, they are unions of built-up locations near each other among which people travel between places of residence, employment, and consumption. Despite the importance of metropolitan areas, metropolitan Core-Based Statistical Areas and other official U.S. delineations considerably stray from this broad definition. We develop a simple algorithm to better match it, using commuting flows among U.S. census tracts in 2000. Three judgmental parameters govern the threshold strength of commuting ties between locations to include them in the same metropolitan area, the maximum separating distance between locations, and the threshold density of outlying settlement. A parameterization that balances encompassing commuting flows and excluding sparsely settled land delineates 361 Kernel-Based Metropolitan Areas (KBMAs), in aggregate capturing almost all the population and employment of metropolitan CBSAs in a small fraction of their land area. We benchmark KBMAs against two alternative parameterizations, one that prioritizes encompassing commuting flows and one that prioritizes excluding less built-up and less near locations.
{"title":"A better delineation of U.S. metropolitan areas","authors":"Jordan Rappaport , McKenzie Humann","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103781","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103781","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Metropolitan areas are a fundamental unit of economic analysis. Broadly defined, they are unions of built-up locations near each other among which people travel between places of residence, employment, and consumption. Despite the importance of metropolitan areas, metropolitan Core-Based Statistical Areas and other official U.S. delineations considerably stray from this broad definition. We develop a simple algorithm to better match it, using commuting flows among U.S. census tracts in 2000. Three judgmental parameters govern the threshold strength of commuting ties between locations to include them in the same metropolitan area, the maximum separating distance between locations, and the threshold density of outlying settlement. A parameterization that balances encompassing commuting flows and excluding sparsely settled land delineates 361 Kernel-Based Metropolitan Areas (KBMAs), in aggregate capturing almost all the population and employment of metropolitan CBSAs in a small fraction of their land area. We benchmark KBMAs against two alternative parameterizations, one that prioritizes encompassing commuting flows and one that prioritizes excluding less built-up and less near locations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103781"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144535418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103787
Nelly Exbrayat, Victor Stephane
We study the impact of urbanization driven by internal migration on crime in South Africa. We create a new dataset that combines yearly data on crime and urban population density at the municipality level from 2011 to 2018. We exploit exogenous variations in rural–urban migration induced by climate shocks at origin for identification. We show that higher urban population density leads to a reduction in pecuniary crime rate but has no effect on non-pecuniary crime rate. This negative effect operates through changes in population composition and a social network effect.
{"title":"Does urbanization cause crime? Evidence from rural–urban migration in South Africa","authors":"Nelly Exbrayat, Victor Stephane","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103787","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103787","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the impact of urbanization driven by internal migration on crime in South Africa. We create a new dataset that combines yearly data on crime and urban population density at the municipality level from 2011 to 2018. We exploit exogenous variations in rural–urban migration induced by climate shocks at origin for identification. We show that higher urban population density leads to a reduction in pecuniary crime rate but has no effect on non-pecuniary crime rate. This negative effect operates through changes in population composition and a social network effect.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103787"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144517633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-29DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103786
Margaret Bock , Alexander Cardazzi , Brad R. Humphreys
Road maintenance constitutes a significant component of transportation spending at all levels of government. Formulation of an efficient transportation infrastructure policy requires information about factors affecting road and traffic conditions. We generate the first causal evidence that decreasing pavement quality increases vehicle crash rates and decreases average speed. Results from parallel segment and instrumental variable models using spatially and temporally disaggregated data from Federal-Aid Highway System (FAHS) roads in California show statistically and economically significant increases in vehicle crash rates and decreases in average vehicle speed caused by road damage. These results produce a range of effect sizes that exceed those using standard road quality data. The results imply significant increases in social costs attributable to road damage.
{"title":"Where the rubber meets the road: Pavement damage reduces traffic safety and speed","authors":"Margaret Bock , Alexander Cardazzi , Brad R. Humphreys","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103786","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103786","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Road maintenance constitutes a significant component of transportation spending at all levels of government. Formulation of an efficient transportation infrastructure policy requires information about factors affecting road and traffic conditions. We generate the first causal evidence that decreasing pavement quality increases vehicle crash rates and decreases average speed. Results from parallel segment and instrumental variable models using spatially and temporally disaggregated data from Federal-Aid Highway System (FAHS) roads in California show statistically and economically significant increases in vehicle crash rates and decreases in average vehicle speed caused by road damage. These results produce a range of effect sizes that exceed those using standard road quality data. The results imply significant increases in social costs attributable to road damage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103786"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144510759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-02DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103782
Sumit Agarwal , Weida Kuang , Long Wang , Yang Yang
{"title":"Corrigendum to “The role of agents in fraudulent activities: Evidence from the housing market in Beijing” [Journal of Urban Economics, Volume 142, July 2024, 103668]","authors":"Sumit Agarwal , Weida Kuang , Long Wang , Yang Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103782","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103782","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103782"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144298565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-23DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103773
Vladimir Avetian , Stefan Pauly
Tourism in cities fosters social interactions between people from distant cultures within limited space. But how does the influx of tourists affect locals’ satisfaction with amenities? Using data on restaurant reviews, we construct a panel of tourist presence in Paris. Based on two unanticipated drops in tourism – the November 2015 terrorist attack and the COVID-19 pandemic – we show that tourism reduces Parisians’ satisfaction with restaurants. We find that social frictions, including xenophobia towards tourists, drive our results. As tourist numbers declined, explicit complaints about tourists in reviews decreased, while other complaints remained unaffected. Locals are least satisfied with dining among tourists from countries with weak social ties to France. Tourists are not affected by the presence of other tourists.
{"title":"You can’t sit with us: How locals and tourists compete for amenities in Paris","authors":"Vladimir Avetian , Stefan Pauly","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103773","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103773","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tourism in cities fosters social interactions between people from distant cultures within limited space. But how does the influx of tourists affect locals’ satisfaction with amenities? Using data on restaurant reviews, we construct a panel of tourist presence in Paris. Based on two unanticipated drops in tourism – the November 2015 terrorist attack and the COVID-19 pandemic – we show that tourism reduces Parisians’ satisfaction with restaurants. We find that social frictions, including xenophobia towards tourists, drive our results. As tourist numbers declined, explicit complaints about tourists in reviews decreased, while other complaints remained unaffected. Locals are least satisfied with dining among tourists from countries with weak social ties to France. Tourists are not affected by the presence of other tourists.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103773"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-06DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103772
Jonatan Andersson , Jakob Molinder
The process of industrialization is typically associated with urbanization and a large urban-rural gap in productivity and skills. To what extent were these disparities driven by the direct impact on occupational attainment of living in an urban area or the result of the positive self-selection of migrants moving to cities? In this paper, we leverage exceptional Swedish longitudinal data that allow us to estimate the impact of rural-urban migration on occupational attainment during Sweden’s industrialization from the 1880s to the 1930s using a staggered treatment difference-in-differences estimator. We attribute roughly half of the urban premium to a direct impact of living in an urban area, whereas the other half is driven by self-selection into cities. A third of the direct impact of residing in cities is explained by a static effect, reflecting the urban advantage, while the rest is the result of a dynamic effect as individuals move into higher-skilled occupations over time in urban areas.
{"title":"Did cities increase skills during industrialization? Evidence from rural-urban migration","authors":"Jonatan Andersson , Jakob Molinder","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103772","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103772","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The process of industrialization is typically associated with urbanization and a large urban-rural gap in productivity and skills. To what extent were these disparities driven by the direct impact on occupational attainment of living in an urban area or the result of the positive self-selection of migrants moving to cities? In this paper, we leverage exceptional Swedish longitudinal data that allow us to estimate the impact of rural-urban migration on occupational attainment during Sweden’s industrialization from the 1880s to the 1930s using a staggered treatment difference-in-differences estimator. We attribute roughly half of the urban premium to a direct impact of living in an urban area, whereas the other half is driven by self-selection into cities. A third of the direct impact of residing in cities is explained by a static effect, reflecting the urban advantage, while the rest is the result of a dynamic effect as individuals move into higher-skilled occupations over time in urban areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103772"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143913033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-18DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103762
N. Edward Coulson , Thao Le , Victor Ortego-Marti , Lily Shen
We use state-level differences in landlord-tenant laws to estimate their impact on rental housing affordability. We construct a Tenant Rights Index (TRI) spanning 1997 to 2016 to assess its effects on eviction rates and rental market outcomes. Increased TRI correlates with higher median rent, higher rent-value ratio, and increased homelessness. To rationalize our findings, we develop a search and matching model of the rental market with free entry of both landlords and tenants, and an endogenous eviction mechanism. In our environment, more stringent eviction regulations reduce evictions and raise the relative demand for housing. However, stricter regulations also lead to higher rents and lower vacancy rates. We calibrate the model to the US rental market to quantitatively assess the mechanism in our model. An increase in eviction costs has a larger impact on the eviction rate and market tightness, with a relatively smaller effect on rents and vacancy rates. Our findings suggest that while stringent regulations may reduce evictions, they could lead to unintended consequences such as inflated house prices and heightened homelessness. Policymakers must carefully balance these potential drawbacks against the goal of tenant protection to avoid exacerbating existing housing affordability challenges.
{"title":"Tenant rights, eviction, and rent affordability","authors":"N. Edward Coulson , Thao Le , Victor Ortego-Marti , Lily Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103762","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103762","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use state-level differences in landlord-tenant laws to estimate their impact on rental housing affordability. We construct a Tenant Rights Index (TRI) spanning 1997 to 2016 to assess its effects on eviction rates and rental market outcomes. Increased TRI correlates with higher median rent, higher rent-value ratio, and increased homelessness. To rationalize our findings, we develop a search and matching model of the rental market with free entry of both landlords and tenants, and an endogenous eviction mechanism. In our environment, more stringent eviction regulations reduce evictions and raise the relative demand for housing. However, stricter regulations also lead to higher rents and lower vacancy rates. We calibrate the model to the US rental market to quantitatively assess the mechanism in our model. An increase in eviction costs has a larger impact on the eviction rate and market tightness, with a relatively smaller effect on rents and vacancy rates. Our findings suggest that while stringent regulations may reduce evictions, they could lead to unintended consequences such as inflated house prices and heightened homelessness. Policymakers must carefully balance these potential drawbacks against the goal of tenant protection to avoid exacerbating existing housing affordability challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103762"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143842749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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